Tony Sipp Archives - River Avenue Blues

Scouting the Free Agent Market: The Middle Relievers

December 14, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

The Winter Meetings came and went, and so, too, did a few of the potential bullpen options. The Yankees are still on the hunt for a couple of relievers to replace the free agent duo of Zach Britton and David Robertson – both of whom are still available as of this writing, and both of whom were written about in our season reviews – and, as per Brian Cashman himself, it remains a priority. I’ve already written about Kelvin Herrera, Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia (who later signed with the Mets for 3-years, $30 MM), Cody Allen, Greg Holland, and Ryan Madson. With the Yankees potential budget restrictions being what they are (or might be), I’ll pivot to some middle relief options to bolster the … well … middle innings.

Brad Brach

2018 Stats – 62.2 IP, 20.8 K%, 9.7 BB%, 46.0 GB%, 3.59 ERA, 3.67 FIP

Yankees fans are familiar with Brach, who pitched for the Orioles from 2014 through this past trade deadline, and has faced the good guys 25 times in his career. He wasn’t terribly effective, though, pitching to a 5.32 ERA in 23.2 IP – but I digress. Brach has been a rock-solid reliever for seven years now, pitching to a 3.05 ERA (133 ERA+) and 3.69 FIP in 449 IP since coming to the majors for good in 2012; and that includes a 2.99 ERA (140 ERA+) in 327.2 IP in the AL East. And that’s something that we’ve seen the Yankees value in the past, notably with the aforementioned Happ.

It is worth exploring why Brach pitched so poorly with the Orioles last year, though. His overall numbers were good, but they don’t tell the whole story. Consider his pre- and post-trade numbers:

Orioles – 39.0 IP, 20.5 K%, 10.3 BB%, 46.5 GB%, 4.85 ERA, 4.01 FIP
Braves – 23.2 IP, 21.2 K%, 8.7 BB%, 45.1 GB%, 1.52 ERA, 3.12 FIP

What the heck happened? The easiest explanation is that the Orioles are awful, and everyone on the team felt it. Their porous defense led to a .371 BABIP when Brach was on the mound (his career BABIP is .284), and his batted-ball profile doesn’t suggest that he was giving up better contact than before. His hard-hit percentage was up a bit – but his soft-hit percentage was, too. His HR/9 (0.92) and HR/FB (10.0%) were in-line with career norms, as well. So what about his velocity?

Brach’s fastball did tick down this year, particularly in the first half. It returned to normal after the trade, though, which may suggest any number of things. A hidden injury? A slump? The malaise of being an Oriole? Who knows. But he returned to form with Atlanta, much as Britton did with the Yankees. I don’t want to discount the potential of a slip in velocity going forward, though, as Brach will be 33 shortly after opening day. But I think he’s in-line for a bounceback.

MLBTR forecasts a 2-year, $12 MM deal for Brach, and that seems reasonable to me. He has some closer experience, filling in for Britton in 2017 and part of 2018, but he’s largely been a middle reliever or set-up man otherwise, and I suspect that’s how teams view him. And, at that cost, I think he makes quite a bit of sense for the Yankees.

Oliver Perez

2018 Stats – 32.1 IP, 35.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 41.2 GB%, 1.39 ERA, 1.74 FIP

Let’s get a few things out of the way first: Perez is a 37-year-old journeyman that had to wait until June to find a team because he was ineffective at best in 2016 and 2017, and his best role is as a lefty specialist. And, yes, 2018 was far and away his best season.

Now, that being said: Perez was an excellent specialist last year. He held lefties to a .191/.214/.274 slash line, which is actually a tick better than he was prior to his two-years of struggle (lefties hit .185/.235/.283 against him in 2015, for example). And he was solid against lefties in those interim years, too; the greatest issue was that he faced a fair amount of righties, and they have murdered him over the last several years. He’s a specialist, through and through.

So is there anything that supports this being for real? Yes, actually: his pitch selection.

Perez all but eliminated his sinker (his worst pitch by a considerable margin in 2016 and 2017) in favor of more four-seamers and more sliders, and it paid dividends. Perhaps due to his focusing on two pitches instead of three, the spin rates on his four-seamer (from 2099 RPM to 2156) and slider (2110 to 2308) increased markedly, and both were more difficult for hitters to square-up as a result. The combination of pitch selection and those pitches having more movement suggests that this wasn’t just luck; and it may even portend a reason to expect something closer to vintage Perez in 2019.

There aren’t really any contract predictions out there for Perez, and I suspect that his market won’t be terribly hot anytime soon. But if the Yankees do turn to a specialist, that lack of interest could result in a bargain.

Sergio Romo

2018 Stats – 67.1 IP, 26.4 K%, 7.0 BB%, 36.4 GB%, 4.14 ERA, 4.04 FIP

Romo has long been a standard-bearer for the slider, with the offering representing better than half of all of his pitches in seven of his last eight seasons. And that actually undersells his reliance on the pitch to a degree – just take a look:

The fact that batters have hit just .173 against Romo’s slider over his eleven year career is astounding, to say the least. And, despite the .240 batting average against it in 2018, it was largely more of the same – until batters teed off on it to the tune of a .375 average in his horrific September. And September really skewed everything:

Pre-September – 58.1 IP, 27.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 39.9 GB%, 3.24 ERA, 3.30 FIP
September – 9.0 IP, 23.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 19.4 GB%, 10.00 ERA, 8.83 FIP

Ouch. Romo’s effectiveness dropped off across the board, and it seemed as though every batted ball was hit in the air; and the result of that was five home runs allowed in those nine innings. He had his ups and downs throughout the season, but he has never been as bad as he was in September.

Romo’s anti-fastball approach and year and a half of (mostly) very good performance in the AL East makes him appealing to some extent; and the fact that his market isn’t projected to be all that large helps, too. However, he’ll be 36 in March, and he’s always been a flyball pitcher. And, even with his great slider, it’s hard for me to see a RHP succeeding in Yankee Stadium with a fastball that sits between 87 and 88 MPH, as his has for the last three years.

As a result of this, I wouldn’t say that Romo’s a straight-up no for me – but his name value and upside doesn’t quite jibe with the reality of the Yankees situation.

Tony Sipp

2018 Stats – 38.2 IP, 27.8 K%, 8.6 BB%, 41.5 GB%, 1.86 ERA, 2.41 FIP

In terms of their story arcs over the last few years, Sipp and Perez are quite similar. Sipp never struggled to find a job due to his contract with the Astros, but he bounced back from abysmal 2016 and 2017 seasons to be as dominant as ever (if not more so) in his role in 2018.

From 2011 through 2015, Sipp held lefties to a .210/.283/.369 slash line; in 2018, it was .188/.263/.294. In between, lefties hit .264/.335/.540. And, on the off-chance that this needs to be said, that’s simply unacceptable.

So what can we offer in the way of an explanation? A reappearance/rediscovery of velocity may’ve helped:

Sipp’s velocity was dipped noticeably in 2016 and 2017, and regained nearly a full MPH last season. Moreover, he had largely shelved his four-seamer in 2016 and 2017 (roughly 35.7% of his offerings), before going back to it (53.3%) in 2018. It’s worth noting that his fastball has been a plus offering (by FanGraphs’s run values) throughout his career, but was deep into the red in 2016 and 2017. The spin rate remained steady, per Statcast, so maybe it did just come down to velocity.

Regardless, Sipp is another reliever that doesn’t figure to be in big-time demand. If the Yankees want a lefty specialist, Sipp fits the bill. I do think I’d prefer Perez, though, if only because his pitches – in terms of velocity and spin – jump off the page more.

Joakim Soria

2018 Stats – 60.2 IP, 29.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 35.7 GB%, 3.12 ERA, 2.44 FIP

Soria is a name that is brought up around every Rule 5 Draft, as one of the biggest success stories from what has largely been an uneventful process. The Royals snagged him from the Padres organization way back in 2006, and he has gone on to rack-up 634.1 innings of 2.88 ERA (148 ERA+) with 220 saves and great peripherals over an eleven year career.

That was a long time ago, though, and Soria is entering his age-35 season. So what sort of pitcher is he now? As you can see from the numbers above, Soria was excellent last year; both his strikeout and walk rates were better than his career norms, and comfortably better than league-average.

And that’s largely who Soria has been over the last several years. 2016 was his worst year, when he posted a 4.05 ERA (4.36 FIP) for the Royals – but he bounced back nicely in 2017 (3.70 ERA and 2.23 FIP), and was even better last year. The key for him is changing arm slots and speeds and keeping batters off-balance, and it has worked far more often than not. And despite his age and mileage, his velocity has remained steady:

It’s kind of beautiful, isn’t it?

Soria’s also the rare reliever that mixes in more than two pitches. He was a fastball-heavy guy in 2018 (66.4%), but he threw his change-up, slider, and curve right around 10% of the time apiece. It’s enough to keep hitters guessing and, along with his arm slots, that’s probably why each pitch had at least a 25% whiff per swing rate.

MLBTR projects a 2-year, $18 MM deal for Soria, and I can definitely see that happening. In fact, I could see him doing a bit better now that I’ve dug into his numbers a bit more. And at 2-years, $18 MM, I’d be pleased to see him in pinstripes. He’s still a stud.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Tony Sipp

December 8, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

Over the last few offseasons, the Yankees have only spent whatever comes off the books following the season. They put the money back into the team and that’s basically it, no more. The Yankees only shed about $20M in player salaries after the 2015 season, and a little less than half that will go to covering arbitration raises. It’s no surprise they’re focusing on trades now.

Spending some (any) of those limited dollars on a relief pitcher may not seem like a smart idea, but with substantial rotation help unlikely to be on the way, improving the relief crew make sense. Besides, there’s a chance the Yankees could land themselves a bargain in left-hander Tony Sipp, who remains unsigned even though relievers are now coming off the board every few hours. Is he a fit? Let’s look.

Recent Performance

Sipp is a journeyman. He started his career with the Indians, was traded to the Diamondbacks in the three-team deal that also sent Didi Gregorius to the desert, signed with the Padres as a free agent, then landed with the Astros as a free agent after being released by San Diego. The 32-year-old has thrown 363 innings in parts of seven MLB seasons (3.50 ERA and 4.21 FIP).

After arriving in Houston in 2014, Sipp’s performance improved considerably. Here are his last two seasons with the Astros and his two seasons prior to joining Houston.

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/9	RHB wOBA	LHB wOBA
2012	55.0	4.42	4.68	21.9%	9.9%	32.9%	1.47	.353	.288
2013	37.2	4.78	4.88	24.0%	12.6%	26.0%	1.43	.306	.378
2014	50.2	3.38	2.93	31.8%	8.6%	31.3%	0.89	.235	.227
2015	54.1	1.99	2.93	28.7%	6.9%	38.8%	0.83	.265	.265

Gosh, that’s like two different pitchers. Once he arrived in Houston, Sipp’s strikeout rate skyrocketed and he figured out how to retire right-handed batters, so he was no longer a left-on-left matchup guy. He was a true one-inning pitcher the last two seasons who just so happened to be left-handed.

Sipp’s walk rate is a little high — I’m not sure I’d count on him sustaining a 6.9% walk rate going forward, not based on his career to date — and he doesn’t get grounders, though that’s not necessarily a big deal because he’s been an extreme infield fly ball guy. His career rate is 13.5% infield pop-ups. The MLB average hovers around 9.0% each year. Strikeouts and pop-ups are a really great recipe for success.

Obviously there are reasons to be skeptical. Relievers work in small samples and weird stuff happens. When a career journeyman like Sipp suddenly puts it together, it’s easy to think it’s a fluke. There is a tangible reason for the improved performance against right-handers though, which led to the overall success. Let’s look at that now.

The Stuff

For the vast majority of his career, Sipp was a low-90s fastball/low-80s slider guy. Pretty generic. There are about a zillion lefties in pro ball with similar stuff. But, after picking him up off the scrap heap, the Astros got Sipp to use his splitter more often. Check it out:

We saw Nathan Eovaldi go through the process of learning a splitter this summer. It’s not as simple as throwing the pitch more often. You have to get comfortable with it and throw it with conviction. That can take time.

The Astros got Sipp to use his splitter more often last year, and by this summer he was throwing it almost as often as his slider. It’s gone from show-me third pitch to legit weapon. That explains the improved performance against righties. Sipp now has a weapon for batters of the opposite hand. There’s an honest to goodness explanation for the improvement.

Middle reliever highlight videos are not exactly a hot internet commodity, but here’s a short look at Sipp’s split-finger fastball in action:

Chris Colabello, the last batter in the video, took that fastball down the middle because he was expecting a two-strike splitter out of the zone, the pitch Sipp used to strike out the first two batters. The splitter changes everything. The split itself gets swings and misses and it helps his fastball play up.

Sipp improved the last two years because he changed as a pitcher. Whether the improved performance is sustainable long-term remains to be seen, but, for now, all we need to understand the success is not a fluke. He added a new pitch and it changed his profile.

Injury History

Sipp had Tommy John surgery back in July 2007 but has been healthy since. No DL stints, no day-to-day injuries, nothing. The elbow reconstruction is the only significant injury of his career. (He did miss three weeks with an oblique strain in 2006, which … whatever.) By 32-year-old journeyman reliever standards, Sipp’s medical history is about as clean as you’re going to find.

Contract Estimates

Well, if there’s one thing we’ve learned this offseason, it’s that teams have a lot of money to spend. Contracts have been larger than projected in general, and that includes free agent relievers. For information purposes, here are Sipp’s various contract estimates (he didn’t receive a qualifying offer, so there’s no draft pick attached):

FanGraphs: Two years, $10M.
MLB Trade Rumors: Three years, $12M.
Jim Bowden: Two years, $10M.

For what it’s worth, Jerry Crasnick reported yesterday that Sipp is looking for three years and $5M to $6M annually. That’s basically Zach Duke (three years, $15M) and Boone Logan (three years, $16.5M) money, and hey, maybe those are cautionary tales. Duke and Logan have been pretty terrible since signing their big free agent deals, and similar to Sipp, Duke had a tangible explanation for his sudden success because he reinvented himself as a side-armer.

Wrapping Up

The free agent bullpen market was pretty weak coming into the offseason and most of the top guys have already come off the board. Darren O’Day received four years and $32M. Joakim Soria got three years and $25M. Mark Lowe got two years and $13M. Heck, Ryan Madson got three years and $22M despite not pitching at all from 2012-14 due to an ugly medical history.

When I saw Sipp wanted only three years at $5M or $6M per year, it stood out to me as a bargain in this market. I thought Sipp was undervalued a bit coming into the offseason, but man, seeing those reliever contracts makes his asking price really seem like a good deal to me. The splitter explains his sudden success and he’s done it two years in a row now. This wasn’t a one-year blip. He did it in 2014 and did it again 2015 as he continued to emphasize the splitter.

The Yankees may not have much money to spend this offseason, but it appears Sipp can provide some real bang for the buck. Forget the left-handed thing. He’s a setup man caliber reliever capable of throwing full innings. He can provide additional bullpen depth and also help cushion the blow if the Yankees do indeed decide to trade Andrew Miller at some point. There’s always room in the bullpen for another good reliever anyway.

I can understand why anyone would be skeptical of Sipp going forward, especially since he’s not young, though I am a believer in the splitter and his ability to sustain his 2014-15 success going forward. It’s risky. No doubt about it. All reliever contracts are. Sipp does strike me as a great value play at his asking price though. Extra bullpen depth to help protect against a rotation littered with health concerns may not be a bad way for the Yankees to use their limited dollars.

Mailbag: Niemann, Paulino, Gillaspie, Sizemore

November 22, 2013 by Mike 12 Comments

Six questions and six answers this week. Remember to use the Submit A Tip in the sidebar to send us whatever, whenever.

Several people asked: What about Jeff Niemann?

Niemann, 30, elected free agency earlier this week after the Rays outrighted him off their 40-man roster. He did not pitch at all this year and has been limited to one game since May 2012 due to a series of shoulder problems, most notably surgery to repair damage to his labrum and rotator cuff. Niemann’s had a lot of injury problems over the years, most dealing with his shoulder. That’s always scary.

Before the injury, the 6-foot-9, 285 lb. right-hander managed a 3.08 ERA (3.09 FIP) in 38 innings last season. He put up a 4.06 ERA (4.13 FIP) in 135.1 innings in 2011 while missing time with a back problem. Niemann never lived up to hype associated with being the fourth overall pick in the country (2004), but he was a rock solid mid-rotation guy who showed steady improvement — particularly when it came to getting strikeouts and ground balls — before this last round of injury problems.

Niemann had his surgery in April and it came with a 9-12 month recovery time. He recently told Bill Chastain that things are going well but a second half return is the most likely scenario while adding that he might not sign until he can get back on a mound and clubs can see him throw. I definitely have interest in Niemann since he’s reasonably young and has AL East/pennant race experience, but obviously the medicals need to check out. If he’s willing to take a minor league contract, absolutely. Go for it. If he wants something guaranteed right away … eh, that might be pushing it. Some team could cave and given him that 40-man spot, I suppose.

Dustin asks: Two recently DFA’d players to pick up on waivers if they fall to the Yanks: Tony Sipp and Felipe Paulino. Thoughts?

The 30-year-old Sipp was taken off the roster by the Diamondbacks earlier this week and he has the right to elect free agency, but he hasn’t done so yet. He pitched to a 4.78 ERA (4.88 FIP) in 37.2 innings in 2013 overall but we’re talking about a lefty specialist, overall numbers don’t tell the whole story. Sipp was hit hard by same-side hitters this past season (.378 wOBA and 6.05 FIP) but was much more effective from 2011-2012 (.288 wOBA and 4.16 FIP). If he wants to take a minor league deal and compete for a bullpen spot with Cesar Cabral and David Huff in camp, sure.

Paulino, 30, is in the same boat as Niemann. He already elected free agency but hasn’t pitched since June 2012 due to Tommy John and shoulder surgery, the latter of which is expected to sideline him until the second half of next year. Before that he was showing steady improvement, with a 1.67 ERA (3.25 FIP) in 37.2 innings in 2012 and a 4.46 ERA (3.69 FIP) in 139.1 innings in 2011. Niemann has a longer track record of success but I think these two are in the same exact situation. If the medicals check out and Paulino is willing to take a minor league contract, then let’s do it. If he wants something guaranteed, let someone else give him the 40-man spot.

No batting gloves? Grinder. (David Banks/Getty)

Travis asks: Would a swap of Dellin Betances and Conor Gillaspie of the White Sox make sense for both sides? They love their large-framed pitchers and the Yankees have a need for a left-handed 3B/1B.

I think that’s fair value. Both Betances and Gillespie are former top prospects who are out of minor league options and have yet to really establish themselves at the big league level. The 26-year-old Gillaspie did play fairly regularly for the ChiSox this past season, hitting .245/.305/.390 (85 wRC+) with 13 homers in 452 plate appearances. His defense at the hot corner was a tick below-average. The Yankees would be banking on Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch boosting his numbers. I do think that trade makes sense for both teams and it’s worth noting the White Sox have shown interest in Betances before. Do they still like him? That’s the question.

Dave asks: Let’s say A-Rod gets suspended for all of 2014 and prior to the 2015 season, the Yankees buyout his remaining contract in a single $61M lump sum. How does that amount affect the luxury tax?

From what I have read, the Collective Bargaining Agreement does not address buyouts for a situation like this. I think it would be treated as a new contract, however. Essentially a one-year, $61M contract. If that’s the case, I think the Yankees would simply release him and pay the $61M over the next three years instead. I think a more likely buyout scenario is paying that $61M over six years (with interest) instead of three, doubling the term. The luxury tax hit would be recalculated in that situation but it’s not as simple as average annual value because the Yankees have already paid some amount of tax on that contract. The tax hit would be lowered, I’m just not sure how much. The most important thing to remember is A-Rod has no reason to take a penny less than what’s owed to him, it’s extremely unlikely he’ll agree to a buyout that makes all or part of that $61M disappear. He’ll make the Yankees release him before agreeing to take less money. That’s what I would do.

Nick asks: Nick Cafardo recently reported that Grady Sizemore was getting a lot of attention and that he should be ready for Spring Training. Now I know he shouldn’t be counted on for anything but don’t you think he’d be a good buy low candidate?

Did you know that Sizemore is 31 years old already? He’s not all that young anymore. That really snuck up on me. He hasn’t played in a game since September 2011 and when he did play, he kinda stunk (94 wRC+ in 2011, 81 wRC+ from 2010-2011). His list of injuries is so very long — left elbow inflammation and debridement (2009), sports hernia (2009), left knee microfracture surgery (2010), another sports hernia (2011), arthroscopic right knee surgery (2011), lower back surgery (2012), right knee microfracture surgery (2012) — that he’s basically the Eric Chavez of outfielders. If Sizemore is cool with taking a minor league deal and showing what he can do in Spring Training, by all means, bring him in. Maybe he has a 2012 Chavez year in him. My expectations are zero though.

Niq asks: Can you remind me what happens if the Yankees sign multiple free agents who received and turned down qualifying offers? Do they lose multiple picks? If not, doesn’t that make it easier to sign multiple top free agents? Thanks.

Oh yes, you will absolutely lose multiple picks for signing multiple qualified free agents. Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams can forfeit the picks they receive as compensation for losing their own qualified free agents as well. It didn’t used to work like that. So if the Yankees get a supplemental first round pick for Curtis Granderson signing elsewhere but sign two qualified free agents, they would lose their first rounder and the compensation pick for Granderson. If it’s feasible, I think you’re better off doing all your shopping in one offseason and losing two or three picks at once (like the Yankees did during the 2008-2009 offseason) than signing one big free agent each winter and forfeiting your first rounder every summer.