Seattle Mariners Archives - River Avenue Blues

So long, Sonny: Yankees trade Gray to Reds in three-team deal with Mariners

January 21, 2019 by Mike

It took a little longer than I think everyone expected, but the Yankees have finally traded Sonny Gray. Earlier today the Yankees sent Gray to the Reds in what is essentially a three-team trade with the Mariners. The deals have been announced, so it is official. Here’s the breakdown:

Reds get: Sonny Gray and lefty pitching prospect Reiver Sanmartin
Mariners get: Second base prospect Shed Long
Yankees get: Center field prospect Josh Stowers and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick

Officially, the Yankees traded Gray and Sanmartin for Long and the draft pick, then flipped Long to the Mariners for Stowers. Based on the timestamps on the press releases, Long was officially a Yankee for nine minutes. The Yankees clear a 40-man roster spot with this deal, which means they won’t have to make an additional move when they announce the Adam Ottavino signing.

The Reds were reportedly unwilling to make the trade without signing Gray to a contract extension. The two sides have agreed to a three-year extension covering 2020-22. It is reportedly worth $30.5M. There is also a fourth year club option worth $12M, plus performance bonuses. Add in the one-year contract he already signed for 2019, and Gray’s new deal can max out at $50M across five years. Not bad.

Following the postseason Brian Cashman made it clear he was ready to trade Gray. His market took a little longer to develop than I expected, and the Yankees claimed they wanted to hold on to him following CC Sabathia’s heart procedure, but I never really bought it. It was a matter of “when” they’d trade Gray, not “if.” Cashman and the Yankees made it very clear they were ready to move on.

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” Cashman said to Joel Sherman in November. “Until someone walks through your door and lives (life as a Yankee), it is hard to know. You try to vet every aspect. You plan and work at it and sometimes it pays off and sometimes it doesn’t.”

“Ultimately, you want to play somewhere where you’re wanted,” said Gray to Mike Organ recently. “… I don’t think it’s a secret to anyone, it’s kind of been an up-and-down experience for me. I’ve loved my time there. I love the guys. It was obviously a difficult season this past year, starting and then going to the bullpen, not pitching as much. But, I mean, I won eleven games last year.”

Gray, 29, came to the Yankees in a deadline deal with the Athletics in 2017. Things started out fine, but he struggled with his control late that season, then things really fell apart last year. All told Gray pitched to a 4.51 ERA (4.40 FIP) in 195.2 innings in pinstripes. That includes a 6.55 ERA (4.97 FIP) in 88 innings at Yankee Stadium and a 2.84 ERA (3.05 FIP) in 107.2 innings on the road. Sonny didn’t mix well with the Bronx for whatever reason.

The 22-year-old Sanmartin came over from the Rangers in a minor trade last offseason and he pitched to a 2.81 ERA (2.71 FIP) with 21.3% strikeouts and 1.5% walks in 67.1 innings at four levels last year. I answered a mailbag question about him recently. Sanmartin’s a stats over scouting report prospect who will probably wind up in the bullpen. The Yankees are loaded with lower level arms and Sanmartin is an easy prospect to trade away.

Stowers, 21, was Seattle’s second round pick in last year’s draft. They gave him a $1.1M bonus as the 54th overall selection and he hit .260/.380/.410 (126 wRC+) with five homers and 20 steals in 58 short season league games after turning pro. Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com both ranked Stowers as the tenth best prospect in the Mariners’ system before the trade. Here’s a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report:

The biggest question in projecting Stowers’ future is whether he can stay in center field, because he needs to improve his reads and jumps … his plus speed is enough for the position if he makes the rest of the necessary improvements. Otherwise, a below-average arm would limit him to left field. Stowers’ bat will likely carry him. He has a plus hit tool, and his sharp batting eye is expected to help him at higher levels when pitchers are around the zone more. With average power, Stowers projects to be able to hit 15-20 home runs per year.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com both ranked Long as the seventh best prospect in the Reds’ system before the trade. Based on the little I know about Long and Stowers, my preference would’ve been to hang on to Long, mostly because I prefer infielders to outfielders and upper level players to lower level players whenever possible. Stowers is just getting his career started and is a few years away. Long might play in MLB this coming season. Shrug.

The draft pick is a pretty big deal. Competitive Balance Round picks are the only draft picks that can be traded — this is the first time the Yankees have ever traded for a pick — and, right now, the draft pick is 36th overall. It could move a little in either direction as the remaining qualified free agents sign, though it’ll be in the mid-30s. The Yankees get the draft pick and the bonus pool money associated with the pick. Last year the 36th overall selection had a $1.97M slot value. An extra pick and all that extra bonus pool money equals more talent for the farm system this summer.

According to my quick math the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll is down to $221M this coming season, which is below the $226M second luxury tax tier. Realistically, there’s no way they can get under the $206M threshold at this point. Staying under the $226M threshold and avoiding the surtax is definitely doable and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the goal. A Manny Machado or Bryce Harper signing has felt unlikely for weeks and this trade doesn’t change that.

Aside from a surprise Machado or Harper signing, the only thing the Yankees really have left to do this winter is replace Gray with another swingman/spot starter type. I’d bet on that pitcher making much less than the $7.5M the Yankees were slated to pay Sonny this season. I’ve mentioned Francisco Liriano a few times as a personal favorite for that swingman role. Looking over the list of free agents, others like Jason Hammel and Drew Pomeranz could be swingman candidates. We’ll see.

Reports: Yusei Kikuchi agrees to four-year deal with Mariners

January 1, 2019 by Mike

11:46am ET: It’s a complicated contract. Kikuchi gets three years and $43M, reports Jeff Passan. After that, the Mariners could retain him with a four-year club option worth $66M. If they do not, Kikuchi could enter free agency or exercise a one-year player option at $13M. The deal can max out at seven years and $109M. For release fee purposes, it’s a $56M guarantee, so the Mariners owe Seibu a $10.275M release fee (I think).

9:30am ET: According to multiple reports, Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi has agreed to a four-year contract with the Mariners. The Seibu Lions posted Kikuchi last month and his 30-day negotiating period was due to close at 5pm ET tomorrow. There’s no word on the money yet. My guess is the contract falls in the $60M neighborhood. We’ll see.

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has ripped apart his roster this offseason, including trading James Paxton the Yankees. On the surface signing Kikuchi may not make much sense, but he is only 27, and he could be part of the team’s next contending core. Kikuchi helps advance the rebuild. How often do you get a chance to acquire a talented 27-year-old lefty? Exactly.

The Mariners have a rich history with Japanese players (Ichiro Suzuki, Hisashi Iwakuma, Kenji Johjima, etc.) and Seattle has a large Japanese community, which I’m sure appealed to Kikuchi. Also, the Mariners will open the 2019 regular season with a two-game series against the Athletics in Tokyo, so that’s cool. Kikuchi could make his first start for the team in Japan.

A few weeks ago Brian Cashman admitted he’d spoken to Scott Boras about Kikuchi and that the Yankees scouted the southpaw “extensively” last season. I get the sense the door on Kikuchi closed (if it were ever open to start with) once the Yankees re-signed J.A. Happ to round out the rotation. They probably weren’t going to spend big on another starting pitcher.

The offseason shopping list remains unchanged for the Yankees. With the rotation settled, their largest remaining needs are bullpen help and a Didi Gregorius replacement. Manny Machado is expected to pick a team soon, and, if the Yankees manage to land him, a) it would be awesome, and b) I have to think it would affect their bullpen decisions to some degree.

Looking for under-the-radar relief pitchers the Yankees could target this offseason

December 20, 2018 by Mike

With the rotation now in order, the Yankees have shifted their focus to the bullpen. The bullpen and a Didi Gregorius replacement. The Yankees say they want two relievers and that makes sense given the current roster. There are four open bullpen spots at the moment, and although the Yankees have no shortage of in-house candidates for those spots, it’s obvious an upgrade is in order.

It has become clear in recent years the Yankees have a “type” when it comes to relievers. They prefer relievers who miss bats, first and foremost. New York’s bullpen struck out 30.2% of the batters they faced in 2018. That’s a single season record. They broke the record held by … the 2017 Yankees (29.1%). Yankees’ relievers generated a 13.1% swing-and-miss rate this past season, third highest in baseball behind the Astros (14.5%) and Dodgers (14.1%).

The Yankees are also velocity and spin rate enthusiasts. As a team in 2018 they had the highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph), the second highest average fastball spin rate (2,360 rpm), and the third highest average breaking ball spin rate (2,517 rpm). In fact, it seems the Yankees have prioritized spin rate over velocity the last few years. Nine pitchers threw at least 40 relief innings for the Yankees the last two seasons. Here are their average fastball velocity and spin rate numbers, with above-average rates in red:

	2017-18 Innings	FB velo	FB spin	BB spin
Chad Green	142.2	95.7 mph	2,451 rpm	2,206 rpm
Dellin Betances	126.1	98.0 mph	2,395 rpm	2,675 rpm
David Robertson	104.2	91.9 mph	2,555 rpm	2,706 rpm
Jonathan Holder	104.1	91.6 mph	2,347 rpm	2,657 rpm
Aroldis Chapman	101.2	99.4 mph	2,494 rpm	2,444 rpm
Adam Warren	87.1	92.3 mph	2,202 rpm	2,266 rpm
Chasen Shreve	83.1	92.3 mph	2,485 rpm	2,357 rpm
Tommy Kahnle	50	97.0 mph	2,268 rpm	2,448 rpm
Luis Cessa	41	92.3 mph	2,283 rpm	2,468 rpm
MLB AVG for RP		93.4 mph	2,274 rpm	2,434 rpm

Five of those nine relievers posted below-average velocity the last two years. Only two had a below-average fastball spin rate and three had a below-average breaking ball spin rate. Robertson makes up for the lack of velocity with a killer curveball. Holder and Warren are kitchen sink guys with a wide array of secondary pitches. Is it a coincidence Warren and Shreve, the two guys with the fewest red cells in that table, were shipped elsewhere this past season? Maybe not!

Betances is, for all intents and purposes, the perfect Yankees reliever. He pairs comfortably above-average fastball velocity with comfortably above-average spin rates on both his fastball and breaking ball. And he misses a ton of bats. A ton. Chapman has three red cells in that table but his breaking ball spin rate is fairly close to average. Betances is well-above-average across the board. It’s not a coincidence he is so wildly successful when he throws strikes.

Clearly, the Yankees have a “type” when it comes to relievers. They want bat-missers who can really spin the ball. The more velocity, the better, but above-average velocity is not required. Knowing that, I decided to see whether we could use that information to dig up some under-the-radar bullpen targets. So I created a list. Here’s what I did:

Found pitchers who recorded above-average spin rates on their fastball and breaking ball in 2018.
Removed pitchers with a below-average swing-and-miss rate in 2018 (league average is 11.5%).
Removed starters, recently signed free agents, current Yankees, and current Red Sox (since a trade with the Red Sox isn’t happening).
Removed established relievers who, realistically, are not attainable (Kenley Jansen, etc.).

Step One turned up 193 pitchers, which is way more than I expected. Step Two whittled the list down to 139 pitchers. Step Three brought us down to 75 relievers. And finally, Step Four got us down to 68 pitchers. There are several recent former Yankees among those 68 names (Robertson, Parker Bridwell, etc.) which I’m sure is partly coincidence and partly the result of those guys being the Yankees’ type.

Here’s my spreadsheet with those 68 relievers. Among those 68 relievers are stud free agents (Robertson, Adam Ottavino), a bunch of “I know that guy” guys (Bud Norris, Luke Gregerson, Mychal Givens), and a bunch of relievers even hardcore fans may not know. Since we’ve spent a lot of time looking at the big names already this winter, we’re going to rummage through those 68 names to find potential under-the-radar bullpen targets. Here are five who caught me eye.

RHP Dan Altavilla, Mariners

Fastball Velocity: 96.6 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,367 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,786 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.6%

Who is he? Altavilla, 26, was a fifth round pick in 2014 who really broke out when the Mariners moved him into the bullpen full-time in 2016. He’s had cups of coffee with Seattle each of the last three years and owns a 3.28 ERA (4.32 FIP) with a good strikeout rate (25.3%) and a not good walk rate (10.7%) in 79.2 career big league innings. He has ground ball (39.0%) and home run (1.24 HR/9) issues at times. Altavilla is a classic fastball/slider reliever who threw those pitches at close to a 50/50 split this year.

What’s his contract status? With one year and 129 days of service time (1.129), Altavilla comes with five years of team control, though he (likely) will be arbitration for the first of four times as a Super Two next offseason should he spend the entire 2019 season in the big leagues. That’s not a big deal. Arbitration doesn’t pay middle relievers well. Altavilla also has a minor league option remaining, so he can go to Triple-A without a problem next year.

Yay or nay? I think yay. The high walk rate is largely the result of a rough stretch this season in which he walked nine batters in 8.2 innings. He has a more tolerable 9.1% walk rate in his MLB career outside those 8.2 innings. We know the Mariners are selling and I can’t imagine they’d make a 26-year-old middle reliever off-limits in trade talks. There’s a chance at a 30% strikeout rate here.

RHP Daniel Hudson, Free Agent

Fastball Velocity: 95.4 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,439 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,569 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.9%

Who is he? Hudson is pretty well known by now. The soon-to-be 32-year-old made his big league debut back in 2009 and he’s been a full-time reliever since a pair of Tommy John surgeries limited him to 48 innings from 2012-14. Hudson spent last season with the Dodgers — he went from the Pirates to the Rays in the Corey Dickerson trade and Tampa immediately released him — throwing 46 innings with a 4.11 ERA (4.38 FIP) and good enough strikeout (22.3%) and walk (9.1%) rates. Those numbers are more or less in line with his career norms since the two elbow reconstructions. Hudson’s a fastball/slider guy.

What’s his contract status? Hudson’s a free agent and no one ranked him as a top 50 free agent, so we don’t have any contract estimates. Two years ago he signed a two-year, $11M contract with Pittsburgh and they salary dumped him one year later. My hunch is Hudson’s looking at a one-year deal worth $5M or less. It’s worth noting the Yankees requested his medical information earlier this offseason.

Yay nor nay? I’m going to say nay. Hudson has been the same guy these last four years and that was true even after the Dodgers got him to throw far more sliders (40%) than ever this year. A low cost one-year contract is basically no risk. I’m just not sure there’s reason to believe Hudson has another level in his performance at this point of his career.

RHP DJ Johnson, Rockies

Fastball Velocity: 93.5 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,338 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,586 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 16.2%

Who is he? An undrafted free agent out of Western Oregon, the 29-year-old Johnson went from the Rays to the Diamondbacks to an independent league to the Twins to the Angels to the Rockies from 2010-18. He made his MLB debut as a September call-up this past season and struck out nine in 6.1 innings, which was good enough to land him a spot on Colorado’s Wild Card Game and NLDS rosters. Prior to that, Johnson had a 3.90 ERA (2.81 FIP) with 35.7% strikeouts and 6.4% walks in 55.1 Triple-A innings. He’s another fastball/slider reliever.

What’s his contract status? Johnson was added to a 40-man roster for the very first time in September, so he comes with all six years of team control and all three minor league options. That said, he’s a 29-year-old rookie, so chances are he won’t see the end of those six years of control, and if you’re still optioning him down at age 31, he’s probably not worth keeping around.

Yay or nay? I am intrigued enough to say yay but I’ve also been doing this long enough to know most 29-year-old rookies amount to nothing. The Brad Zieglers are few and far between. Maybe the Rockies like one out of the out-of-options guys (Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Tommy Kahnle) enough to do a one-for-one trade and the Yankees could swap an unoptionable pitcher for an optionable pitcher?

RHP Phil Maton, Padres

Fastball Velocity: 91.9 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,563 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,749 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 15.4%

Who is he? Maton, 25, is a former 20th round pick who worked his way up the minor league ladder and has thrown 90.1 big league innings with a 4.28 ERA (4.12 FIP) and good enough strikeout (25.6%) and walk (9.4%) rates the last two years. The grounder (40.3%) and homer (1.30 HR/9) rates are worrisome. Unlike everyone else in this post, Maton is a fastball/curveball pitcher, not a fastball/slider pitcher.

What’s his contract status? Maton is at 1.107 years of service time, so he has five years of control, including two as a pre-arbitration-eligible player. He also has two minor league options remaining.

Yay or nay? I’m a hard yay. Maton doesn’t have overwhelming velocity but he spins the hell out of his fastball and he knows how to pitch up in the zone with it, and that mixes quite well with a hard downer curveball. The walk and grounder rates are not good, but hey, maybe they’ll improve with experience. Only one needs to improve, really. There are a lot of Padres pitchers on my list of 68 pitchers (Maton, Matt Strahm, Miguel Diaz, etc.) so maybe a package of two or three makes sense in a Sonny Gray trade.

RHP Chad Sobotka, Braves

Fastball Velocity: 96.6 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,391 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,802 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.6%

Who is he? The 25-year-old Sobotka was a fourth round pick in 2014 and he reached the big leagues for the first time as an up-and-down arm in the second half this year. He struck out 21 and walked nine in 14.1 innings — that works out to a 36.2% strikeout rate and a 15.5% walk rate — and made the club’s NLDS roster. Sobotka had 2.03 ERA (2.67 FIP) with 33.3% strikeouts and 12.6% walks in 57.2 minor league innings before his call-up. He’s another fastball/slider guy. They are all over the place.

What’s his contract status? Sobotka has less than a year of service time and he didn’t even burn an option this year, so he has six years of control and all three minor league options remaining.

Yay or nay? I lean yay but Sobotka’s career-long control issues are significant — he has an 11.9% walk rate in the minors — and do give me some pause. A potential issue here (and with Johnson, I suppose) is that the Braves are contending and may not want to trade away a hard-throwing, high-strikeout, optionable reliever. Finding a trade match might not be easy.

* * *

There is much more to life than spin rate, of course. Bryan Mitchell could spin the ball like nobody’s business but he couldn’t miss bats. Spin rate is just one tool in the shed, as is swing-and-miss rate and velocity and all sorts of other things. Find the right mix and it can work well. And sometimes you think you have the right mix and it doesn’t work for whatever reason. That’s baseball. Live and learn. The Yankees seem to have the spin thing worked out pretty well.

The point of this exercise is to find pitchers who could be attractive to the Yankees because of the skills they possess, not because of what they’ve done in the past. We’re looking for guys who’ve yet to really establish themselves as above-average big league relievers with the idea that the Yankees could pick them up, maybe tweak some things, then benefit from an uptick in performance. They’re not big name players and that’s the point. To get them before they become big names.

Granted, it is only December 20th, but the deeper we go into the offseason without the Yankees making a bullpen addition, the more I expect them to bring in a surprise reliever. Heck, they could add the two relievers they’re said to want plus a surprise reliever. And, given their recent history and the kind of relievers they’ve rostered, the smart money is on that hypothetical surprise reliever having high spin rates and a history of missing bats.

Yankees make one selection, get raided in 2018 Rule 5 Draft

December 13, 2018 by Mike

The 2018 Winter Meetings came to an unofficial close earlier today with the annual Rule 5 Draft. It is baseball’s way of ensuring players aren’t trapped in the minors indefinitely. The Yankees have a fairly deep farm system and it is no surprise then that they lost several players in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, mostly in the minor league phase.

Here are the full Rule 5 Draft results. Here are the players the Yankees lost:

Diamondbacks: RHP Nick Green (in MLB phase)
Athletics: OF Mark Payton (in minor league phase)
Cubs: RHP Alex Vargas (in minor league phase)
Phillies: RHP Gilmael Troya (in minor league phase)
Red Sox: RHP Anyelo Gomez (in minor league phase)
Royals: C Chris Rabago (in minor league phase)

As a reminder, players taken in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft have to stick on their new team’s 25-man big league roster all next season, or be placed on waivers and offered back to their original team. Players taken in the minor league phase are just gone. There are no roster rules. Those teams get to keep those players.

Green, 23, came over from the Rangers in the Carlos Beltran trade and he is a personal favorite only because he has a funky cutter/sinker hybrid that helped him post to a 66.4% ground ball rate this season, highest in the minors (min. 130 innings). Green threw 132.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA (4.28 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 11.1% walks this season, with most of that coming with High-A Tampa.

The D’Backs are rebuilding, the Paul Goldschmidt trade confirmed that, so I imagine Green will get a long look in Spring Training and have a chance to stick in their bullpen. Jumping from High-A to the big leagues is not easy, especially with a walk rate like that, but Green’s funky cut-sinker is a dominant ground ball pitch and he could have staying power as a reliever who pounds away with that one pitch.

Among the minor league phase losses, Payton is the most notable because he’s been in the system the longest. The 27-year-old spent most of the last three seasons in Triple-A and hit .259/.368/.401 (120 wRC+) with six homers in 62 games in 2018. A guy like Payton had little hope of cracking New York’s outfield in the near future. He has a much greater chance to reach the big leagues with the Athletics.

Going into the 2018 season I ranked Vargas as the No. 30 prospect in the farm system but clearly I overrated him. The Yankees never used him like a prospect this year. The 21-year-old bounced between the rotation and bullpen, from level to level. They sent him wherever an arm was needed, basically. Vargas threw 83 innings with a 4.01 ERA (4.07 FIP) with 14.3% strikeout and 4.6% walks this season, mostly with Low-A Charleston.

Gomez, 25, was selected and returned by the Braves as a Major League Rule 5 Draft pick last offseason. He threw only 7.1 innings with Triple-A Scranton this season before going down with a significant shoulder injury. The 21-year-old Troya showed some promise a few years ago but hasn’t taken that step forward. He’s yet to pitch above rookie ball. Rabago, 25, was a waiver claim from the Rockies late this year. He played only seven games in the organization, all with Double-A Trenton.

The Yankees did add two players in minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, first grabbing righty Adonis De La Cruz from the Mariners. The soon-to-be 24-year-old is a converted outfielder who threw 57.1 relief innings with a 4.71 ERA (2.80 FIP) with 30.2% strikeouts and 7.7% walks in Low Class-A. The Yankees have had some recent success with minor league Rule 5 Draft picks, most notably turning Yefry Ramirez into a tradeable asset, so maybe they can do it again with De La Cruz.

According to Emily Waldon, the Yankees acquired outfielder Tyler Hill from the Tigers after the Rule 5 Draft. Detroit took him from the Red Sox in the minor league phase. Huh. Every year one or two players selected in the Major League phase get traded right after the Rule 5 Draft. I can’t remember the last time a minor league phase guy was flipped. Anyway, the 22-year-old Hill authored a .254/.348/.312 (95 wRC+) batting line with one homer and 27 steals in 124 High-A games in 2018. Sox Prospects calls him a “a bat-first, organizational player,” so there you go. The Yankees likely sent the Tigers cash or a similar organizational player in the trade.

So, all told, the Yankees did lose an interesting prospect in Green and some upper level inventory in Payton, Gomez, and Rabago in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. Green could still be returned. The other three plus Vargas and Troya are gone for good. I can’t find a scouting report on De La Cruz but a recently converted position player with a 30.2% strikeout is interesting enough. Hill’s an organizational guy who will help fill out rosters. Nothing exciting, but the Rule 5 Draft rarely is.

The Mariners and the possibility of a Carlos Santana trade

December 4, 2018 by Mike

I’ll say this much: Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto is acting very decisively this offseason. The Mariners are tearing their roster apart and yesterday Dipoto completed his fifth trade of the winter, sending Jean Segura and two relievers to the Phillies for J.P. Crawford and Carlos Santana. Similar to the Yankees and the Justus Sheffield/James Paxton trade, the Phillies sent a potential future Segura to the Mariners in Crawford for the actual Segura.

As for Santana, he was included in the trade to offset salary — he’s owed $35M the next two years whereas Segura is owed $60.4M the next four years — and because he and Rhys Hoskins on the same roster in the non-DH league just doesn’t work. The Phillies get a big upgrade at short, some bullpen depth, and they also get to move Hoskins back to his natural first base. The Mariners get Crawford and salary relief and … that’s it? That’s it, I guess.

This past season the 32-year-old Santana mustered a .229/.352/.414 (109 wRC+) batting line with 24 home runs and more walks (110) than strikeouts (93) in his first year with the Phillies. That is clearly down from his sustained 125 wRC+ or so peak from 2011-17, though a miserable April (63 wRC+) overshadowed what was otherwise a typical Carlos Santana season (119 wRC+ after May 1st). A player struggled in his first month with his new team. It happens.

In all likelihood the Mariners will trade Santana at some point before Spring Training. Dipoto is going hard after this rebuild and there’s no real reason to keep Santana. Santana turns 33 soon after Opening Day and first base only guys usually don’t gain trade value at that age. Seattle will eat some money and flip him elsewhere, a move that could interest the Yankees. I know I’m not the only one who thought about it. Let’s talk this out.

1. What would the Yankees do with Santana, exactly? Put him at first base. Or maybe DH with Giancarlo Stanton taking up permanent residence in left field. Santana has been a very productive hitter throughout his career and he brings a healthy dose of old player skills — old player skills in that they tend to age well, historically — in his patience and power. Two years of Santana? It’s not a bad little gamble at the right price.

Right now the Yankees have Luke Voit and Greg Bird penciled in at first base. Voit was awesome this past season and he deserves at least a long look in Spring Training. That said, his big league track record consists of exactly one (1) month, and that month is September, which is a terrible time to evaluate players. Bird? He was awful this year and hurt the last three years. He’s become Allen Craig without all the good years.

Going with Santana at first base would be the safe move. Get the veteran dude who had a .352 OBP in a down year and has averaged 27 homers the last three seasons, and would help the balance the right-handed heavy lineup with his switch-hitting bat. The Yankees would be opting for the safe Santana over the upside of Voit, basically. For what it’s worth, their 2019 Steamer projections:

Santana: .243/.359/.447 (119 wRC+) with 26 homers and +2.3 WAR
Voit: .262/.336/.460 (115 wRC+) with 21 homers and +1.5 WAR

Hmmm. Projections are not predictions, remember. They are an attempt to estimate talent level. At least one projection system sees soon-to-be 33-year-old Santana and soon-to-be 28-year-old Voit as similar talents. Both 15% to 20% above-average offensively and +2 WAR overall. That said, Voit’s projection is a little more uncertain than Santana’s given his lack of big league time.

Voit did some very good things in his big league stint this past season (Bird not so much), specifically hitting the ball hard and getting it in the air. Do that and good things happen. Example: Santana. He’s been crushing the ball and getting it airborne for the better part of a decade now, and the result has been a very long and productive Major League career. Going with the proven commodity wouldn’t be unreasonable, I don’t think.

2. What would it cost? Eh, it’s hard to say. Santana is owed $17M in 2019 and $17.5M in 2020 before a $17.5M club option ($500,000 buyout) comes into play in 2021. I have to imagine the Mariners will eat some of that to facilitate a trade. Santana wouldn’t get two years at $35M guaranteed as a free agent right now. Either Seattle eats some money or they take back a player(s) to offset salary a la Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade.

I don’t think Santana would be a straight salary dump, however. I think there would be enough interest — the Rockies, Twins, Rays, and even the Red Sox stand out as potential landing spots — that the Mariners would get something decent for Santana. One or two mid-range prospects. Someone in, say, the 5-10 range or two prospects in the 11-20 range of an organizational top 30 list. Too much? I guess it depends how much money the Mariners eat.

If Seattle pays Santana down to a $10M a year player or so, either by eating salary or taking on contracts in return, giving up one or two mid-range prospects seems perfectly reasonable to me. Those mid-range guys are exactly the type of prospects a win now team should be willing to trade for an upgrade at the MLB level, especially when you have a pitching heavy farm system like the Yankees. (Pitchers break, man. Trade ’em all.)

3. If you want a new first baseman, why not just sign a free agent instead? Good question, loyal reader. The answer is the free agent first base class stinks. It stinks. The best first basemen on the market are Justin Bour, Matt Adams, and Lucas Duda. None of those guys move the needle for me. I guess you could sign Marwin Gonzalez and put him at first base, a position he’s played plenty in the past, but that’s a waste of his versatility.

I suppose signing Bryce Harper and moving him to first base is an option, albeit one that doesn’t seem particularly likely to me. Besides, Harper’s a special case. A team is not basing that $300M+ ($400M+?) decision on who they have at first base anyway. Realistically, the first base free agent class is terrible. At the right price, meaning one or two non-top prospects and $20M over the next two years, I’d take Santana over every single free agent first basemen.

* * *

Joel Sherman speculated (key word: speculated) about a Jacoby Ellsbury for Carlos Santana trade yesterday but that doesn’t seem all that realistic to me, even with the money kinda sorta matching up. The Yankees would have to kick in prospects to make it the trade worth it for Seattle, presumably pretty good ones to get them to stay payroll neutral. Otherwise they’d just trade Santana elsewhere and get prospects and salary relief.

Ellsbury is a non-factor for the Yankees — the best case scenario next year is that he’s a 35-year-old speed guy coming off major hip surgery and uh — and if they could swing a trade in which they swap Ellsbury for Santana while kicking in a prospect to stay payroll neutral, it’d make an awful lot of sense. Assuming ownership is willing to give up those sweet insurance dollars and assuming Santana is actually an upgrade at first base, that is.

First base is not a priority for the Yankees this offseason and it seems to me that, if they’re going to make a move at first base, it’ll be for someone who is a clear upgrade. Not Santana who is kinda sorta in decline. Paul Goldschmidt would make sense. As would Matt Carpenter, who I suppose could become available if the Cardinals nab Goldschmidt, but probably not. Guys like that would make the most sense for the Yankees. Santana’s not in that tier of players.

Had Voit not done what he did this past season with such promising underlying skills — again, this dude hammered the ball, it’s not like he put up those numbers with bloops and seeing eye singles — I think a Santana trade would be much more realistic for the Yankees. Even as he declines, he still gets on base and pops dingers, and switch-hits. That’s valuable. Enough to give up prospects and take on a bunch of money? Eh, maybe not with what Voit showed.

Don’tcha Know: Robinson Cano traded to the Mets

December 1, 2018 by Mike

Robinson Cano is coming back to New York. Just not with the Yankees.

According to multiple reports, the Mets and Mariners have (finally) agreed to a five-for-two trade that sends Cano and stud closer Edwin Diaz to Flushing for a combination of prospects and veteran salary offsetters. Here are the trade details:

Mets get: Cano, Diaz, and $20M
Mariners get: Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Gerson Bautista

Give new Mets general manager — and Cano’s former agent — Brodie Van Wagenen credit. This is the most creative move the Mets have made in a long time. Given the way the money works — including Bruce and Swarzak means this trade is close to payroll neutral in 2019 and 2020 — the Mets took on salary down the line with Cano to score four years of a top notch closer.

This trade makes the Mets significant better on the infield and in the bullpen, and they gave up nothing they’ll miss off their big league roster. The question now is will the Mets continue to add? This alone isn’t enough to get them into the postseason. The Mets went 77-85 this past season but have a strong rotation and the makings of a good lineup. They still need help behind the plate and in center field, in the bullpen, and with overall depth.

As for the Mariners, this trade continues their offseason fire sale, which has already seen Mike Zunino go to the Rays and James Paxton come to the Yankees. Using a player as valuable as Diaz to shed as much of Cano’s contract as possible takes a special kind of cheap, but it is what it is. Kelenic (sixth overall pick in 2018) and Dunn (19th overall pick in 2016) are two very good prospects, so it’s not like Seattle gave Diaz away. Bautista is an MLB ready reliever too.

The trade has some indirect impact on the Yankees. They’ve been connected to both Cano and Diaz this offseason, though a trade for either never seemed all that likely to me. The Yankees and Mariners talked Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury but the money was still an obstacle. Diaz would’ve been a great pickup. It’s just hard for me to see how the Yankees win a prospect bidding war for him if guys like Kelenic and Dunn were on the table.

Also, with the Mariners going into tank mode, it means one fewer team to compete against next year should the Yankees have to settle for a wildcard spot yet again. I count six (!) rebuilding teams in the American League: Mariners, Orioles, Rangers, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox. More than one-third of the league is rebuilding. Geez. The Blue Jays and Twins aren’t looking so hot either. The AL is very top and bottom heavy right now.

Hot Stove Rumors: Diaz, Gray, Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Goldy

November 28, 2018 by Mike

The rumors are starting to come in steadily now, and, in fact, player visits are going down. Patrick Corbin visited the Phillies earlier this week — they had the obligatory scoreboard photoshop ready to go — and tomorrow he’ll be in New York to visit the Yankees, according to Joel Sherman. For what it’s worth, Andy Martino hears Corbin is not expected to drag out his free agency. He could sign sooner rather than later. We’ll see. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees showing strong interest in Diaz

The Yankees were among the teams showing the strongest interest in Mariners closer Edwin Diaz, reports Joel Sherman. The Braves, Mets, Phillies, and Red Sox were also involved, though Sherman says everyone thus far has balked at taking on Robinson Cano to get Diaz. Presumably the more money you take on in Cano — he’s owed $120M the next five years — the less you have to give up in prospects to get Diaz. “What are those teams willing to part with in dollars to (get Diaz)?” a source said to Sherman.

Diaz, 25 in March, has four years of team control remaining and he is electric. This season he posted a 1.96 ERA (1.61 FIP) with 44.3% strikeouts and 6.1% walks in 73.1 innings. He is on the short list of the best relievers in the game. The Yankees are said to want two relievers and Diaz would certainly be an upgrade to the bullpen. With Justus Sheffield gone, I’m not sure the Yankees have the prospects to win a Diaz bidding war, not unless they put Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres on the table. Taking on Cano’s deal might be their only way to get Diaz.

Mariners wanted Gray in Paxton deal

Another Yankees-Mariners nugget. Been a lot of them these last few weeks. Anyway, according to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Mariners wanted Sonny Gray in addition to Sheffield in the James Paxton trade. The Yankees balked because enough other teams are showing interest in Gray that they believe they can maximize their return by trading him and Sheffield separately. Obviously the two sides got the Paxton deal done without Sonny.

The Athletics, Reds, Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins have all shown interest in Gray this offseason. We can now add the Mariners to that list. Wouldn’t it be something if the Yankees could build an Edwin Diaz trade package — or even a Jean Segura trade package — around Gray and, say, Estevan Florial? Plus a secondary piece or two? I expect the Yankees to get a decent return for Gray. Using him to get a true impact guy like Diaz (or Segura!) would be an A+ move in my book.

Giants open to trading Bumgarner

According to Jon Morosi, the Giants are willing to discuss trade scenarios involving lefty Madison Bumgarner. The Yankees were not mentioned as a suitor — the Braves and Phillies are said to have touched base with San Francisco — but I’m certain they’ll show interest. They want another starting pitcher, and remember, the Yankees were “in the hunt” for Bumgarner at the trade deadline. I am a tad skeptical the Giants would actually trade a franchise icon, but it would make sense given their current situation and the fact he’s a year away from free agency.

Jeff Sullivan wrote a post this week detailing Bumgarner’s decline. He’s still quite good — Bumgarner did have a 3.26 ERA (3.99 FIP) in 129.2 innings around a fluke finger injury (hit by a comebacker) this past season — but his velocity, swing-and-miss rate, and walk rate are trending down big time. I mean, look at this. Yikes. Bumgarner is still only 29, but he has a lot of innings on his arm, and he might be entering his Felix Hernandez decline phase. That said, there’s only one year and $12M on his contract, and the Yankees wouldn’t need him to be their ace or even their No. 2 starter. Depending on the asking price, rolling the dice on one year of Bumgarner could make an awful lot of sense.

Yankees not in on Syndergaard

Mets righty Noah Syndergaard is available but the Yankees are not among the teams showing interest, reports Martino. Maybe the front office change in Flushing makes it possible, but a Yankees-Mets trade of this caliber? I can’t see it. For the Mets, trading Syndergaard to the Yankees would be an ownership decision, not a front office decision, and I can’t see the Wilpons signing off on that.

Hypothetically, I think Syndergaard is one of the few pitchers the Yankees would be willing to trade Andujar or Torres to acquire. Syndergaard has had some injury problems the last two years, but he has no-doubt ace upside, and those guys are extremely rare. Three years of control with that potential? Hard to pass that up, even if you have to give up an Andujar or Torres. You’ve gotta give something to get something, after all. Like I said though, I can’t see a Yankees-Mets trade of this caliber going down.

Yankees not pursuing Goldschmidt

Yet another contradictory Paul Goldschmidt rumor. Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reports the Yankees are not pursuing the Diamondbacks’ first baseman at this time. They prefer a lefty bat and don’t see first base as a top priority right now. A few weeks ago we heard the Yankees didn’t have interest in Goldschmidt, then, earlier this week, it was reported they pushed Sheffield in trade talks with Arizona. That was a secondhand report though. I’m inclined to believe the “they’re not really pursuing him” rumors.

It’s more interesting to me that the Yankees, at least according to Rosenthal, do not consider first base a top priority at the moment. Greg Bird stunk last year, and while Luke Voit was awesome, his track record is basically one month, and that month is September, when weird things happen. There are always cheap first base stopgap types available in the days leading up to Spring Training — what are the odds Lucas Duda signs before February? — so if the Yankees want some first base depth, they’ll be able to find it. Guys like Goldschmidt don’t become available often though.