San Diego Padres Archives - River Avenue Blues

Reports: Manny Machado agrees to deal with Padres

February 19, 2019 by Mike

The Manny Machado free agency saga is finally over. According to multiple reports Machado has agreed to a massive ten-year, $300M contract with the San Diego Padres. Yes, the Padres. Allow me to toot my own horn and point out I called the Padres as a sleeper team on Machado over a month ago, before they reportedly got involved in the bidding. Go me.

Machado’s new contract includes an opt-out after the fifth year, which surprises me. I thought his side would push for an opt-out after the third year, which would allow him to reenter free agency at age 29, and also right as the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires and things (maybe) get better for free agents. Maybe Machado’s camp tried but the Padres wouldn’t budge. Whatever.

At $300M, this is the second largest contract in baseball history behind Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325M deal. It’s also the largest free agent contract in North American sports history (Stanton’s deal was an extension during his arbitration years). The Padres gave out the richest free agent contract last winter (Eric Hosmer), remember. Don’t ever let teams trick you into believing they don’t have money.

San Diego appears to be an odd destination for Machado, and it is, but money talks. Also, the Padres have a monster farm system. Best in baseball in my book. Their best prospects, like Luis Urias and Francisco Mejia, started to arrive last year, and others like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack could arrive this year. You can see the foundation of a contending roster forming, and since Machado is only 26, he fits right in with the youth movement.

With Machado off the board Bryce Harper becomes the undisputed top free agent available, and I imagine the Phillies and White Sox will ramp up their efforts to sign him. At least one of those two clubs is going to walk away empty-handed. The Giants have been connected to Harper in recent weeks and I wouldn’t rule out the Nationals either. I reckon Machado’s contract record won’t last long.

As for the Yankees, they only half-heartedly pursued Machado this winter. They met with him at Yankee Stadium in December and, according to James Wagner and Jack Curry, they never made him an offer after that, and “strong voices” in the organization were against signing him. The Yankees have barely been connected to Harper this offseason. I suppose they could swoop in to sign him, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

The Yankees will see Machado and Padres during interleague play this year. The Padres are scheduled to visit Yankee Stadium for a three-year series from May 27th to 29th. The Yankees are not going to San Diego this season, however.

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Andujar, Gray, Padres, Tulowitzki

January 8, 2019 by Mike

As usual, the hot stove league has ground to a halt in January, except in the past it happened because all the top free agents had signed. Nowadays it’s because no teams want to spend money. Have we reached the point where signing free agents is a market inefficiency? Possibly! Anyway, earlier today we discussed the Yankees’ continued interest in Adam Ottavino. Now here’s the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees have not made Machado a “concrete” offer

Here we go again with the “they haven’t made an offer yet” stuff. According to Ken Davidoff, the Yankees have not yet made a “concrete” offer to Manny Machado. For what it’s worth, Bob Nightengale reported the White Sox made Machado a formal offer last week, and Jim Salisbury says the Phillies are still negotiating with Machado, which indicates no offer has been made. Davidoff says the Yankees and Dan Lozano, Machado’s agent, are not far along enough in talks to make a formal offer.

The offer stuff gets overplayed every offseason. The important thing is the two sides are talking. Should they get to a point where they’re close on money, the Yankees will put a piece of paper in front of Machado (they’ll send an electronic document to his iPad, really) and move forward. I mean, does anyone really think the Yankees will lose out on Machado simply because the White Sox have a formal offer in front of him and the Yankees don’t? If Machado wants to be a Yankee, they’ll work out the contract terms, and he’ll wait on the offer.

Yankees not seriously shopping Andujar

According to Davidoff, the Yankees are not seriously shopping Miguel Andujar. It has been reported throughout the offseason that the Yankees are open to trading him. Both of those things can be true. The Yankees can be open to trading Andujar — I’m certain they’re open to trading a lot of players should the right offer come along — without actively shopping him and pushing him in trade talks.

Also, keep in mind these things can change in a hurry. If the Yankees manage to sign Machado, they could turn right around and begin to push Andujar in trade talks in an effort to address other needs. I don’t love that idea — the more high-end bats the better, and the Yankees could easily make room for Machado and Andujar on the roster — but it is a viable option. Overall, there is too much “trade Andujar” talk for my liking. He’s really good! The Yankees should be keeping really good young players, even if they are flawed.

Padres still after Gray

The last Sonny Gray non-update: Jon Morosi reports the Padres still have interest in acquiring Gray. Brian Cashman walked back his repeated “we’re going to trade him” comments last week on account of CC Sabathia’s angioplasty. Cashman said the Yankees slowed down their Gray talks following Sabathia’s procedure because the team wants to make sure they’re covered. Sabathia has follow-up exams coming that will clarify his status.

Sabathia’s condition certainly changed the equation, but clearly, the Yankees did not consider Gray a viable rotation option earlier this offseason, and nothing’s really changed on his end. He’s the same old Sonny Gray. If the Yankees didn’t consider him a rotation option before, they shouldn’t consider him one now. I suspect the talk about holding onto him following Sabathia’s procedure is just that, talk. I expect the Yankees to continue pushing Gray in trade talks and likely move him before Spring Training, regardless of Sabathia’s condition. They’d find a depth starter elsewhere.

Tulowitzki has full no-trade clause

Sixteen teams were interested in Troy Tulowitzki following his workout last month, and, to bring him to the Bronx, the Yankees gave Tulowitzki a full no-trade clause, reports Jon Heyman. This is largely inconsequential. First of all, it is unlikely Tulowitzki plays his way into any real trade value. Secondly, if Tulowitzki does play well enough to have real trade value, the Yankees would probably want to keep him because depth is cool. Need it to contend.

And third, Tulowitzki will make the $555,000 league minimum. If he’s that much of a roster clog and he’s unwilling to accept a trade, the Yankees could just release him and eat the money. Doing that with a player making $10M is a tough pill to swallow. The league minimum? No, who cares. The no-trade clause gives Tulowitzki some peace of mind and comes at no real cost to the Yankees. His low salary makes it easy to dump him should a roster spot be required.

Hot Stove Rumors: Reliever Market, Gray, Harrison, Profar

December 31, 2018 by Mike

As expected, hot stove news has slowed to a crawl over the holidays. It’s been pretty quiet this last week or so and it’ll probably stay that way for another few days, at least until Yusei Kikuchi’s 30-day negotiating period expires Wednesday. The Yankees had interest in him at one point. The J.A. Happ signing may’ve changed things though. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees focusing on bullpen

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are focusing on the bullpen as they wait for Manny Machado to make his decision. Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino, and David Robertson are all in play and it is possible the Yankees could sign more than one top reliever. Part of me wonders if the Yankees will blow it out and spend a ton of money should they manage to sign Machado, leading to two reliever signings. Once they’re over the luxury tax threshold, might as well go all out, you know? Otherwise they might stick to the luxury tax threshold (again).

Ottavino and especially Britton have been connected to the Yankees pretty much all offseason. Things have been oddly quiet with Robertson, however. There was that weird postseason shares story, which, if you’re a conspiracy theorist, could’ve been planted to turn fans on Robertson as the Yankees let him walk. Wouldn’t be the first time a team has done that. I don’t think that’s the case though. I very much prefer Robertson to literally every other free agent reliever on the market. Hopefully the two sides can hammer out a deal at some point.

Brewers and Padres still after Gray, Reds fading

The Brewers and Padres remain involved in Sonny Gray trade talks, report Jon Morosi and AJ Cassavell. The Reds, meanwhile, are starting to fade out of the picture after adding Tanner Roark and Alex Wood in recent weeks. I guess Cincinnati doesn’t want to dip into their farm system again to acquire another one-year rental. Eleven teams were in on Gray earlier this offseason and the Yankees have since whittled that list down to the most serious trade suitors.

I am surprised 2018 is just about over and Gray is still a Yankee. Chances are the Yankees are waiting until the right deal comes along — Spring Training is still six weeks away, so there’s no rush — though I suppose they could’ve decided to keep Sonny as a sixth starter/swingman, or that Brian Cashman’s public trade declarations have backfired. It seems to me the Yankees and Gray have reached the point of no return. He’ll be traded at some point. Maybe to the Brewers or Padres, or maybe somewhere else entirely. I’ll be surprised if Gray’s still a Yankee when pitchers and catchers report on February 13th.

Yankees still “in play” for Harrison

The Yankees are among the teams still “in play” for free agent infielder Josh Harrison, reports Heyman. He’s a popular guy, apparently. Heyman list both contenders (Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies) and rebuilders (Giants, Rangers) among his suitors. The Yankees could use Harrison at second base before shifting him into a true utility role once Didi Gregorius returns from Tommy John surgery.

Harrison, 31, hit .250/.293/.363 (78 wRC+) with eight homers and three steals in 97 games this past season. He’s a year removed from a .272/.339/.432 (104 wRC+) batting line — that was propped up by an uncharacteristic 23 hit-by-pitches though — and can play pretty much any position, which is not nothing. The Yankees have had trade interest in Harrison in the past too. There are better middle infield options on the board right now (Machado, Jed Lowrie, DJ LeMahieu, etc.) and my preference is going after those guys before settling for Harrison.

Yankees had interest in Profar

Before he was traded to the Athletics, the Yankees had interest in Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, reports Gerry Fraley. They weren’t willing to give up much to get him, apparently. Texas received four good but not great Double-A prospects plus international bonus money in the three-team trade. The A’s gave up an okay big league reliever (Emilio Pagan), a good Double-A prospect, international bonus money, and a Competitive Balance Round draft pick in the deal. Oakland won’t miss any of that.

Profar, 25, hit .254/.335/.458 (108 wRC+) with 20 homers and ten steals this past season. Shoulder injuries wrecked his 2014-15 seasons and he finally started to look his old tippy top prospect self in 2018. Profar was the position player centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan because I think he’s on the cusp of breaking out as one of the game’s best players. The Yankees have had interest in him in the past and I was hoping they’d make a run at him again this offseason. Alas. It didn’t really happen.

The Padres are reportedly interested in Miguel Andujar, but there’s only one way it makes sense for the Yankees

December 27, 2018 by Mike

Squint your eyes and you can see the makings of a powerhouse. The Padres have the game’s best and deepest farm system, much like the Yankees a year or two ago, and the Yankees rode that farm system to quicker than expected contention in 2017. San Diego’s farm system is absurd. They don’t have the same financial resources as the Yankees, but their prospect base is the best in the sport.

All winter long the Padres have indicated they want to use that prospect base to improve their big league roster. They’ve been connected to Noah Syndergaard and Corey Kluber, among others, so they’re not thinking small. It seems weird, a rebuilding team trading prospects for a veteran, but not every prospect will work out and it’s only smart to cash some in as trade chips before they flame out. The tricky park is knowing who to keep and who to trade.

Among the players the Padres have expressed interest in this offseason is Miguel Andujar. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Heyman recently reported San Diego has Andujar on their radar, and remember, they wanted Andujar for Brad Hand at the trade deadline. The Yankees are said to be open to moving their young third baseman, though that was within the context of that potential Noah Syndergaard/J.T. Realmuto three-team blockbuster.

It makes sense that San Diego would have interest in Andujar. For starters, he’s really good, and he’s under control another five years. Every teams wants a Miguel Andujar of their own. Secondly, the Padres haven’t had a steady full-time third baseman since the first time they had Chase Headley. Nineteen different players played at least one game at third base for the Padres over the last four seasons. Nineteen! Andujar would put an end to that revolving door.

The Padres have pretty much everything a team could need in their farm system except a soon-to-be MLB ready third baseman. Yeah, they could put top prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. or Luis Urias at the hot corner, but those guys are middle infielders, and they’re going to remain there. Putting one at third opens upon a hole on the middle infield. The Padres need a third baseman and Andujar is one of the top young third basemen in the game. It fits.

Andujar is a great fit for the Padres. The Padres are not a great fit — or even a good fit, I’d say — for the Yankees as a trade partner. Why? Their Major League talent base stinks. It stinks. Lefty reliever Jose Castillo is pretty awesome but you can’t trade Andujar for a package fronted by a reliever. Eric Hosmer just hit .253/.322/.398 (95 wRC+) and has seven years and $124M remaining on his contract. Wil Myers gives you Andujar defense without Andujar offense. Outfielders like Manny Margot and Hunter Renfroe don’t make much sense for the outfield heavy Yankees. The Padres don’t have much else to offer.

San Diego’s farm system is incredible and, in a vacuum, they could easily cobble together a prospect package good enough to get Andujar. This isn’t a vacuum though. The Yankees are the ultimate win now team and they can’t trade their starting third baseman (and one of their top hitters) for prospects. Sign Manny Machado to play third and trade Andujar for prospects? Okay, but why not sign Machado and keep Andujar at his near league minimum salary and not weaken the MLB roster? Crazy, I know.

Anyway, if the Padres want Andujar, there’s really only way this makes sense for the Yankees. It would have to be a three-team trade. Andujar to the Padres, Padres prospects to some third team, and a big leaguer(s) from that third team to the Yankees. Something like that. Andujar to the Padres, prospects to the Mets, Syndergaard to the Yankees. It would have to be something along those lines. Even then the Yankees would almost certainly have to sign Machado to come out ahead and not just break even.

I suppose the Yankees could trade Andujar for prospects and then trade those prospects for MLB help at the later date. That’s not really a three-team trade but it kinda is. My point is, the Yankees shouldn’t trade Andujar simply to restock the farm system. I know his defense is bad, believe me, but that’s a terrible reason to trade him for prospects and weaken the MLB roster. The Yankees need Andujar to contend in 2019. Why trade for a potential future Andujar when you have the real Andujar right in front of you, ready to help you win games?

The Yankees have built an enviable young position player core in a relatively short period of time and I am all-in on building around bats. Build around bats and buy pitching, especially when you have the Yankees’ financial firepower. I’m not saying I would make Andujar untouchable. Hardly. I just wouldn’t trade him for prospects. I want an impact big leaguer(s) in return and the Padres have literally none to offer. Their best trade currency is prospects, and unless the Yankees and Padres can figure out a three-team deal, sending Andujar to San Diego for prospects is a step backwards.

Looking for under-the-radar relief pitchers the Yankees could target this offseason

December 20, 2018 by Mike

With the rotation now in order, the Yankees have shifted their focus to the bullpen. The bullpen and a Didi Gregorius replacement. The Yankees say they want two relievers and that makes sense given the current roster. There are four open bullpen spots at the moment, and although the Yankees have no shortage of in-house candidates for those spots, it’s obvious an upgrade is in order.

It has become clear in recent years the Yankees have a “type” when it comes to relievers. They prefer relievers who miss bats, first and foremost. New York’s bullpen struck out 30.2% of the batters they faced in 2018. That’s a single season record. They broke the record held by … the 2017 Yankees (29.1%). Yankees’ relievers generated a 13.1% swing-and-miss rate this past season, third highest in baseball behind the Astros (14.5%) and Dodgers (14.1%).

The Yankees are also velocity and spin rate enthusiasts. As a team in 2018 they had the highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph), the second highest average fastball spin rate (2,360 rpm), and the third highest average breaking ball spin rate (2,517 rpm). In fact, it seems the Yankees have prioritized spin rate over velocity the last few years. Nine pitchers threw at least 40 relief innings for the Yankees the last two seasons. Here are their average fastball velocity and spin rate numbers, with above-average rates in red:

	2017-18 Innings	FB velo	FB spin	BB spin
Chad Green	142.2	95.7 mph	2,451 rpm	2,206 rpm
Dellin Betances	126.1	98.0 mph	2,395 rpm	2,675 rpm
David Robertson	104.2	91.9 mph	2,555 rpm	2,706 rpm
Jonathan Holder	104.1	91.6 mph	2,347 rpm	2,657 rpm
Aroldis Chapman	101.2	99.4 mph	2,494 rpm	2,444 rpm
Adam Warren	87.1	92.3 mph	2,202 rpm	2,266 rpm
Chasen Shreve	83.1	92.3 mph	2,485 rpm	2,357 rpm
Tommy Kahnle	50	97.0 mph	2,268 rpm	2,448 rpm
Luis Cessa	41	92.3 mph	2,283 rpm	2,468 rpm
MLB AVG for RP		93.4 mph	2,274 rpm	2,434 rpm

Five of those nine relievers posted below-average velocity the last two years. Only two had a below-average fastball spin rate and three had a below-average breaking ball spin rate. Robertson makes up for the lack of velocity with a killer curveball. Holder and Warren are kitchen sink guys with a wide array of secondary pitches. Is it a coincidence Warren and Shreve, the two guys with the fewest red cells in that table, were shipped elsewhere this past season? Maybe not!

Betances is, for all intents and purposes, the perfect Yankees reliever. He pairs comfortably above-average fastball velocity with comfortably above-average spin rates on both his fastball and breaking ball. And he misses a ton of bats. A ton. Chapman has three red cells in that table but his breaking ball spin rate is fairly close to average. Betances is well-above-average across the board. It’s not a coincidence he is so wildly successful when he throws strikes.

Clearly, the Yankees have a “type” when it comes to relievers. They want bat-missers who can really spin the ball. The more velocity, the better, but above-average velocity is not required. Knowing that, I decided to see whether we could use that information to dig up some under-the-radar bullpen targets. So I created a list. Here’s what I did:

Found pitchers who recorded above-average spin rates on their fastball and breaking ball in 2018.
Removed pitchers with a below-average swing-and-miss rate in 2018 (league average is 11.5%).
Removed starters, recently signed free agents, current Yankees, and current Red Sox (since a trade with the Red Sox isn’t happening).
Removed established relievers who, realistically, are not attainable (Kenley Jansen, etc.).

Step One turned up 193 pitchers, which is way more than I expected. Step Two whittled the list down to 139 pitchers. Step Three brought us down to 75 relievers. And finally, Step Four got us down to 68 pitchers. There are several recent former Yankees among those 68 names (Robertson, Parker Bridwell, etc.) which I’m sure is partly coincidence and partly the result of those guys being the Yankees’ type.

Here’s my spreadsheet with those 68 relievers. Among those 68 relievers are stud free agents (Robertson, Adam Ottavino), a bunch of “I know that guy” guys (Bud Norris, Luke Gregerson, Mychal Givens), and a bunch of relievers even hardcore fans may not know. Since we’ve spent a lot of time looking at the big names already this winter, we’re going to rummage through those 68 names to find potential under-the-radar bullpen targets. Here are five who caught me eye.

RHP Dan Altavilla, Mariners

Fastball Velocity: 96.6 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,367 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,786 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.6%

Who is he? Altavilla, 26, was a fifth round pick in 2014 who really broke out when the Mariners moved him into the bullpen full-time in 2016. He’s had cups of coffee with Seattle each of the last three years and owns a 3.28 ERA (4.32 FIP) with a good strikeout rate (25.3%) and a not good walk rate (10.7%) in 79.2 career big league innings. He has ground ball (39.0%) and home run (1.24 HR/9) issues at times. Altavilla is a classic fastball/slider reliever who threw those pitches at close to a 50/50 split this year.

What’s his contract status? With one year and 129 days of service time (1.129), Altavilla comes with five years of team control, though he (likely) will be arbitration for the first of four times as a Super Two next offseason should he spend the entire 2019 season in the big leagues. That’s not a big deal. Arbitration doesn’t pay middle relievers well. Altavilla also has a minor league option remaining, so he can go to Triple-A without a problem next year.

Yay or nay? I think yay. The high walk rate is largely the result of a rough stretch this season in which he walked nine batters in 8.2 innings. He has a more tolerable 9.1% walk rate in his MLB career outside those 8.2 innings. We know the Mariners are selling and I can’t imagine they’d make a 26-year-old middle reliever off-limits in trade talks. There’s a chance at a 30% strikeout rate here.

RHP Daniel Hudson, Free Agent

Fastball Velocity: 95.4 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,439 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,569 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.9%

Who is he? Hudson is pretty well known by now. The soon-to-be 32-year-old made his big league debut back in 2009 and he’s been a full-time reliever since a pair of Tommy John surgeries limited him to 48 innings from 2012-14. Hudson spent last season with the Dodgers — he went from the Pirates to the Rays in the Corey Dickerson trade and Tampa immediately released him — throwing 46 innings with a 4.11 ERA (4.38 FIP) and good enough strikeout (22.3%) and walk (9.1%) rates. Those numbers are more or less in line with his career norms since the two elbow reconstructions. Hudson’s a fastball/slider guy.

What’s his contract status? Hudson’s a free agent and no one ranked him as a top 50 free agent, so we don’t have any contract estimates. Two years ago he signed a two-year, $11M contract with Pittsburgh and they salary dumped him one year later. My hunch is Hudson’s looking at a one-year deal worth $5M or less. It’s worth noting the Yankees requested his medical information earlier this offseason.

Yay nor nay? I’m going to say nay. Hudson has been the same guy these last four years and that was true even after the Dodgers got him to throw far more sliders (40%) than ever this year. A low cost one-year contract is basically no risk. I’m just not sure there’s reason to believe Hudson has another level in his performance at this point of his career.

RHP DJ Johnson, Rockies

Fastball Velocity: 93.5 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,338 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,586 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 16.2%

Who is he? An undrafted free agent out of Western Oregon, the 29-year-old Johnson went from the Rays to the Diamondbacks to an independent league to the Twins to the Angels to the Rockies from 2010-18. He made his MLB debut as a September call-up this past season and struck out nine in 6.1 innings, which was good enough to land him a spot on Colorado’s Wild Card Game and NLDS rosters. Prior to that, Johnson had a 3.90 ERA (2.81 FIP) with 35.7% strikeouts and 6.4% walks in 55.1 Triple-A innings. He’s another fastball/slider reliever.

What’s his contract status? Johnson was added to a 40-man roster for the very first time in September, so he comes with all six years of team control and all three minor league options. That said, he’s a 29-year-old rookie, so chances are he won’t see the end of those six years of control, and if you’re still optioning him down at age 31, he’s probably not worth keeping around.

Yay or nay? I am intrigued enough to say yay but I’ve also been doing this long enough to know most 29-year-old rookies amount to nothing. The Brad Zieglers are few and far between. Maybe the Rockies like one out of the out-of-options guys (Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Tommy Kahnle) enough to do a one-for-one trade and the Yankees could swap an unoptionable pitcher for an optionable pitcher?

RHP Phil Maton, Padres

Fastball Velocity: 91.9 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,563 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,749 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 15.4%

Who is he? Maton, 25, is a former 20th round pick who worked his way up the minor league ladder and has thrown 90.1 big league innings with a 4.28 ERA (4.12 FIP) and good enough strikeout (25.6%) and walk (9.4%) rates the last two years. The grounder (40.3%) and homer (1.30 HR/9) rates are worrisome. Unlike everyone else in this post, Maton is a fastball/curveball pitcher, not a fastball/slider pitcher.

What’s his contract status? Maton is at 1.107 years of service time, so he has five years of control, including two as a pre-arbitration-eligible player. He also has two minor league options remaining.

Yay or nay? I’m a hard yay. Maton doesn’t have overwhelming velocity but he spins the hell out of his fastball and he knows how to pitch up in the zone with it, and that mixes quite well with a hard downer curveball. The walk and grounder rates are not good, but hey, maybe they’ll improve with experience. Only one needs to improve, really. There are a lot of Padres pitchers on my list of 68 pitchers (Maton, Matt Strahm, Miguel Diaz, etc.) so maybe a package of two or three makes sense in a Sonny Gray trade.

RHP Chad Sobotka, Braves

Fastball Velocity: 96.6 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,391 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,802 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.6%

Who is he? The 25-year-old Sobotka was a fourth round pick in 2014 and he reached the big leagues for the first time as an up-and-down arm in the second half this year. He struck out 21 and walked nine in 14.1 innings — that works out to a 36.2% strikeout rate and a 15.5% walk rate — and made the club’s NLDS roster. Sobotka had 2.03 ERA (2.67 FIP) with 33.3% strikeouts and 12.6% walks in 57.2 minor league innings before his call-up. He’s another fastball/slider guy. They are all over the place.

What’s his contract status? Sobotka has less than a year of service time and he didn’t even burn an option this year, so he has six years of control and all three minor league options remaining.

Yay or nay? I lean yay but Sobotka’s career-long control issues are significant — he has an 11.9% walk rate in the minors — and do give me some pause. A potential issue here (and with Johnson, I suppose) is that the Braves are contending and may not want to trade away a hard-throwing, high-strikeout, optionable reliever. Finding a trade match might not be easy.

* * *

There is much more to life than spin rate, of course. Bryan Mitchell could spin the ball like nobody’s business but he couldn’t miss bats. Spin rate is just one tool in the shed, as is swing-and-miss rate and velocity and all sorts of other things. Find the right mix and it can work well. And sometimes you think you have the right mix and it doesn’t work for whatever reason. That’s baseball. Live and learn. The Yankees seem to have the spin thing worked out pretty well.

The point of this exercise is to find pitchers who could be attractive to the Yankees because of the skills they possess, not because of what they’ve done in the past. We’re looking for guys who’ve yet to really establish themselves as above-average big league relievers with the idea that the Yankees could pick them up, maybe tweak some things, then benefit from an uptick in performance. They’re not big name players and that’s the point. To get them before they become big names.

Granted, it is only December 20th, but the deeper we go into the offseason without the Yankees making a bullpen addition, the more I expect them to bring in a surprise reliever. Heck, they could add the two relievers they’re said to want plus a surprise reliever. And, given their recent history and the kind of relievers they’ve rostered, the smart money is on that hypothetical surprise reliever having high spin rates and a history of missing bats.

Hot Stove Rumors: Eovaldi, Lynn, Happ, Soria, Gray, Brewers

December 5, 2018 by Mike

Patrick Corbin is a Washington National and Paul Goldschmidt is a St. Louis Cardinal. He’s been traded for four players and a draft pick. Despite their first base situation, the Yankees were never seriously connected to Goldschmidt this winter. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings as the Yankees shift gears following the Corbin news.

Eovaldi, Lynn among Plan B’s

Now that Corbin is off the board, the Yankees are “engaged” with Nathan Eovaldi and Lance Lynn as potential Plan B rotation options, reports Mark Feinsand. J.A. Happ is also in that group, of course. A week or two ago we heard the Yankees were not among the early suitors for Eovaldi, but this stuff can change in a hurry. For what it’s worth, Joel Sherman says the Yankees are hesitant to reunite with Eovaldi if it takes four years.

I’ve said all I have to say about Eovaldi. Good dude and I hope he gets paid, but I am a hard pass on an enigmatic two-time Tommy John surgery guy who succeeds with max effort velocity. Happ is fine and nothing more in my opinion. Re-signing him would be okay but underwhelming. Lynn? Blah. He had a 4.41 ERA (2.17 FIP) in 54.1 innings with the Yankees this past season — the low FIP is the result of an unsustainably low homer rate (0.33 HR/9 and 4.5% HR/FB) — and I guess he could fit as a swingman. As a full-time starter though? Not interested.

Yankees have interest in Soria

According to Jesse Sanchez, the Yankees are among the teams with interest in veteran reliever Joakim Soria. They’re said to want two relievers to replace David Robertson and Zach Britton. Soria is still only 34 — I would’ve guessed he’s 37 or 38 by now — and this past season he had a 3.12 ERA (2.43 FIP) with a 29.4% strikeout rate in 60.2 innings for the White Sox and Brewers. He was still throwing fastballs by dudes in October too. The stuff remains pretty lively.

The Yankees have been connected to Soria a bunch of times over the years though they never have acquired him. This would not qualify as a sexy pickup, I know, but I’d be cool with signing Soria to a one-year deal or even a lower cost two-year contract. He’d be what, the fourth best reliever in the bullpen? Maybe fifth? He’s fine in that role. Soria is still effective and he’s wily as hell (his new thing is changing arm slots) and he has experience in every relief role imaginable.

Yankees, Brewers have talked Gray

Add another team to the Sonny Gray trade rumor mill. Jon Morosi reports the Yankees have spoken to the Brewers about Gray. Morosi also reiterates the Padres’ interest in Gray and says they’re having “ongoing discussions” with the Yankees. Eleven teams are reportedly in on Sonny and we know eight of them: Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Athletics, Reds, Braves, Rangers, and Twins. There are still three Mystery Teams™ out there.

I’m surprised Gray has not been traded yet but I guess it makes sense for the Yankees to hang on to him until they acquire another starter, even though it seems they’re beyond the point of no return given Brian Cashman’s comments this offseason. Bottom line, if there are truly eleven teams in on Gray — or even just three or four teams — the Yankees are going to get something nifty for him. Not a star prospect or anything, but something better than nothing, which is what you might normally expect for a guy who had as poor a season as Sonny just did.

Hot Stove Rumors: Cano, Ellsbury, Goldschmidt, Sheffield, Gray

November 26, 2018 by Mike

I do miss that swing. (Stephen Lam/Getty)

Thanksgiving weekend is over and the hot stove is starting to heat up. Earlier today the Braves signed both Brian McCann (one year, $2M) and Josh Donaldson (one year, $23M), so the defending NL East champs are makin’ moves. The Yankees still have a lot to do this offseason even after re-signing Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia, and trading for James Paxton. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees, Mariners talked Cano for Ellsbury

Earlier this offseason the Yankees and Mariners briefly discussed a Robinson Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury trade, reports Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). Talks didn’t advance much because the Yankees wanted Seattle to include “significant cash” in the trade in addition to taking Ellsbury. Cano has five years and $120M remaining on his contract. Ellsbury has two years and $47M. Rosenthal adds the Yankees are wary about having to commit their DH spot to Cano down the line. There are also two no-trade clauses to navigate (Robbie would probably okay a trade back to New York in a heartbeat).

Cano, 36, hit .303/.374/.471 (136 wRC+) with ten homers in 80 games around his performance-enhancing drug suspension this year. The Yankees could stick him at second until Didi Gregorius returns, then slide him over to first base, which he played briefly in 2018. Cano is a better player than Ellsbury, there’s little doubt about that, but those last five years on his contract could be heavy decline years. The Yankees limited their offer to seven years back when Cano was a free agent because they wanted to avoid those age 38-40 seasons, remember. When we’re talking two years vs. five years in a bad contract swap, my preference is the shorter deal. Just get it over with, you know?

Yankees pushed Sheffield in Goldschmidt talks

According to Buster Olney (subs. req’d), the Yankees pushed Justus Sheffield in trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt before sending Sheffield to the Mariners in the Paxton deal. Actually, Olney says “rival executives report” the Yankees pushed Sheffield in Goldschmidt talks, which is an important distinction. This is a secondhand rumor. Hmmm.

Three weeks ago we heard the Yankees had not yet shown interest in Goldschmidt, though things could’ve easily changed since then. And, even though Goldschmidt will be a free agent next winter, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for the D’Backs to seek a Sheffield caliber prospect in return. Goldschmidt’s really good! The Yankees pushing Sheffield in talks though? That’s interesting, assuming it’s true. This would hardly be the first time the Yankees weren’t as high on a prospect internally as they let on.

More teams showing interest in Gray

We can add four more teams to the Sonny Gray trade rumor mill. Nick Cafardo reports the Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins have expressed interest in Gray in recent weeks. The Athletics and Reds are in on him as well. I reckon more than those six teams are interested in Sonny. Even with only one relatively inexpensive year of control, he’s a good buy-low candidate who makes sense for contenders and rebuilders alike.

The Yankees are going to trade Gray at some point, Brian Cashman has made that very clear, and my hunch is it will happen fairly soon. Likely at some point before the Winter Meetings in two weeks. Trading Gray eliminates the distraction to some degree. More than anything though, it’ll provide clarity. What do the Yankees get in return? How much money do they save, if any? Answering those questions will help shape the rest of the offseason going forward.

Yankees trying to move Stanton?

There are “long-shot rumblings” the Yankees are trying to move Giancarlo Stanton, reports Cafardo. That’s a weird way to phrase it. “Long-shot rumblings?” Huh. Anyway, I don’t really buy this. I’m sure the Yankees are open to moving Stanton because they’re open to moving anyyone in the right deal, but his no-trade clause complicates things, as does having to replace him. Dudes who hit 38 homers with a 127 wRC+ in a down year are hard to find.

The Yankees could of course trade Stanton and replace him by signing Bryce Harper (or Manny Machado), but get outta here with that. For starters, the Yankees should be trying to add Harper (or Machado) to Stanton, not replacing one with the other. And secondly, Stanton carries a $22M luxury tax hit and Harper (or Machado) will come in around 150% of that, if not more, for similar production. If the Yankees are going to obsess over payroll, and it sure seems like they are, Stanton’s the far better value. Well, whatever. There’s no sense in dwelling on this because it probably won’t happen.