Nick Castellanos Archives - River Avenue Blues

As busy as the Yankees have been this offseason, they still have room in their lineup for one more bat. In a perfect world that bat would be Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. It’s not often you can sign a 26-year-old superstar caliber player. The Yankees seem content to let Harper and Machado go to other teams. It’s disappointing. It really is.

Machado and Harper are not the only bats on the market. Mike Moustakas and Marwin Gonzalez continue to sit in free agency, though they qualify as good hitters more than great hitters. I’m sure the Mariners would love to unload Edwin Encarnacion and his $25M salary. He was a devastating hitter not too long ago. There are bats available. For sure.

Among those available bats is Tigers right fielder Nick Castellanos, who authored a .298/.354/.500 (130 wRC+) batting line with 23 homers as the only real threat in Detroit’s lineup last year (Miguel Cabrera missed 124 games to injury). The Tigers are expected to trade Castellanos, an impending free agent, at some point this year. His agent told Anthony Fenech he hopes the trade happens soon.

“He wants to win and understands the direction of the franchise right now is to procure prospects,” Castellanos’ agent, David Meter, said Tuesday night. “That being said, he would rather start with his new club going into spring training.”

I get why Castellanos wants to be traded as soon as possible — it must absolutely stink knowing you’re going to traded but have no idea where to or when it’ll happen — but the Tigers are not obligated to move him now. They’ll wait for the right deal, then act. Castellanos’ agent voiced his opinion for the record and that’s that. The Tigers will do what’s best for them when the time is right.

The Yankees already have four outfielders (Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton) for the three outfield spots and DH, plus Clint Frazier and the maybe possibly but probably not healthy Jacoby Ellsbury, so adding another outfielder is not a priority. The Yankees could make it work though, and Castellanos is really good. Let’s talk this out a bit.

1. Castellanos does what the Yankees like. As previously noted, the Yankees love players who hit the ball hard and hit the ball in the air. Last season Castellanos had the sixth highest hard contact rate (47.9%) and the 21st lowest ground ball rate (35.4%) among the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. His Statcast profile:

Outs above average is defense. We’ll talk about that in a bit. The offensive numbers are very promising. Great contact quality and great expected results. Castellanos doesn’t walk much (7.2% in 2018) but he’s cut down on strikeouts (22.3%) and he punishes the ball. Also, he’s 26. He turns 27 in March. That is an age when players often break out or have a career year. Whoever gets him might be buying the single best year of his career.

Furthermore, few right-handed hitters use the opposite field as well as Castellanos. He hit the sixth most fly balls and line drives to right field among righty hitters the last three years. (No. 1 on that list: DJ LeMahieu.) Here are Castellanos’ fly balls from 2016-18. This spray chart looks like it belongs to a left-handed pull hitter.

Think that’ll play in Yankee Stadium? The hard-hit tendencies, the non-grounder tendencies, and the opposite field tendencies make Castellanos a marvelous fit for the short porch. The kid can hit. He was a highly regarded prospect who went through some growing pains and is now blossoming into a middle of the order force. Every team could use someone like that, including the Yankees.

2. Where would they put him? Castellanos is a brutal defensive player according to both the numbers and the eye test. He started his career at third base, and when his glovework at the hot corner became untenable, the Tigers moved him to right field, where he hasn’t been any better. Some numbers:

2016: -11 DRS (at third)
2017: -14 DRS (at third)
2018: -19 DRS (in right)

For all intents and purposes, Castellanos is a DH. The Yankees would have to put Stanton in left field full-time and move Gardner to the bench to make this work. I suppose they could use Castellanos at third or in right in a pinch, but, generally speaking, he should not be counted on to play defense.

The other option is first base, a position Castellanos has never played as a professional. The Yankees would have to give him a crash course at first base in Spring Training. That’s not ideal. My preference would be putting him at DH and letting him rake. Don’t put more on his plate and expect him to learn a new position. Not as a one-year rental. Get as much out of him as possible and move on.

3. The price might be dropping. According to Fenech, Detroit’s asking price for Castellanos is “believed to be one top-level prospect.” The Dodgers and Braves reportedly had interest in Castellanos earlier this winter and they’ve since signed A.J. Pollock and re-signed Nick Markakis, respectively. Some potential suitors are likely out of the running now, meaning the bidding war may not be as intense.

That said, Castellanos is quite good, and I imagine several other teams remain in the hunt. The Indians, Phillies, and Rockies jump out as potential landing spots. If the Tigers are truly seeking just “one top-level prospect,” man, that sounds wonderful to me. The Yankees are in to win it in 2019. Estevan Florial for one year of Castellanos? Jonathan Loaisiga? Albert Abreu or Domingo Acevedo or Deivi Garcia? I’m not sure I could say no to any of that, especially the pitchers.

Keep in mind the Yankees could potentially recoup a draft pick when Castellanos leaves as a free agent after the season. Not a high one — the Yankees will get a pick after the fourth round for losing a qualified free agent next winter because they’re going to pay luxury tax — but a pick nonetheless. That equals an extra prospect and extra bonus pool space. Give up a prospect to get Castellanos and the cost could potentially be offset somewhat by a compensation pick next year.

* * *

The Tigers avoided arbitration with Castellanos prior to the salary filing deadline earlier this month and will pay him $9.95M in 2019. Following the Sonny Gray trade, Cot’s has the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at $213.2M. (I have them at $221M but my estimates for various things are more conservative.) Add Castellanos and his $9.95M salary and the Yankees are still under the $226M second luxury tax tier, per Cot’s. It could work. On the field and in the books.

The downside here is Castellanos stinks defensively and is yet another right-handed bat in a lineup loaded with right-handed bats. But, as I’ve been saying, I’d rather add a great right-handed bat than a good left-handed bat who balances the lineup. Consider the possibilities:

RF Aaron Judge
CF Aaron Hicks
LF Giancarlo Stanton
DH Nick Castellanos
3B Miguel Andujar
C Gary Sanchez
2B Gleyber Torres
1B Luke Voit
SS Troy Tulowitzki

I know Judge will never hit leadoff but damn that’s a fun lineup, isn’t it? That leaves Gardner and LeMahieu on the bench. Gardner can replace Stanton for defense in the late innings, and, if Tulowitzki doesn’t cut it, Gleyber can move to short and LeMahieu can take over at second base. Either way, there is thunder up and down that lineup. Would be fun.

Castellanos is not Machado or Harper — by wRC+, his best season would be Machado’s fourth best season and Harper’s fifth best season — but he is a quality hitter who profiles well in Yankee Stadium. He can’t play defense (or run the bases) and he is another righty bat, but Castellanos would make the Yankees better and deeper. And, if the asking price is “one top-level prospect,” gosh, that might be too good to pass up for a team in position to contend for the World Series.

Got five questions for you this week. The Submit A Tip box (in the sidebar) is the best way to send us stuff.

Conor asks: Would trading one of Tyler Austin, Mason Williams or Slade Heathcott for Nick Castellanos make sense for both teams? The Tigers are going to have him move to right field since they have Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder at the infield corners. Seems that trading him for a player whose already demonstrated he can play the outfield is a better idea.

Now that’s interesting. Castellanos is a one of the best prospects in baseball — Baseball America ranked him 11th overall while Keith Law ranked him 18th in their midseason updates — thanks to a career .316/.367/.443 batting line with 17 homers in 276 minor league games. Baseball America recently ranked him as Detroit’s top prospect, saying he’s “[o]ne of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues” in their subscriber-only scouting report. Since Cabrera, Fielder, and Victor Martinez are clogging the infield corners and DH spot, the Tigers shifted Castellanos from third base to right field this past July. Baseball America said “he could be an average outfielder” with experience.

The Yankees have plenty of high-end outfield prospects as you mentioned, as both Williams (#28) and Austin (#39) cracked Baseball America’s midseason update (Williams made Law’s, which was only 25 players deep). New York would probably have to kick in a little something extra, but a Castellanos-for-Williams trade (for example) isn’t outrageous at all. Both have their own red flags (Williams is coming off shoulder surgery, Castellanos strikes out a lot for a guy who hasn’t shown much power yet), but Castellanos doesn’t have an obvious spot with the Tigers while Williams would be coming from a position of depth. Prospect-for-prospect trades rarely happen because every team loves their prospects more than everyone else’s, but I do think a swap like this makes some sense for both clubs.

Jason asks: Just wondering what you would think of a possible Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, or David Phelps trade to the Rockies for either Michael Cuddyer or Jordan Pacheco. I think Pacheco fits perfectly with NYYs needs. Right-handed outfielder and third basemen and can even fake catcher at times. The Rockies need starting pitching badly.

I wouldn’t touch Cuddyer. He’s 33 years old and he was just barely a league average hitter (102 wRC+) in Coors Field last season. Plus he spent nearly half the year on the DL and isn’t anything special on defense despite the supposed versatility. The Rockies can have fun with that $21M he’s owed over the next two seasons, no way would I want the Yankees to give up something of value for that.

Pacheco, on the other hand, makes some sense. He turns 27 later this month and is a .306/.338/.413 career hitter in 593 plate appearances. Don’t get too excited, that’s only a 91 wRC+ because Coors has turned back into a launching pad. Pacheco always had strong walk rates in the minors (10%+), but it’s dipped to just 4.2% in the show. I’m not sure what that’s about. He can play the three non-shortstop infield spots adequately and catch in an emergency, plus he’s under team control for another five years. I’m not giving up Hughes, Nova, or Phelps for a bench player though, Colorado would have to be willing to take something less.

John asks: Since the Yankees need a cost controlled right-handed outfield bat for 2013 (and 2014) does it makes sense to target someone like Justin Maxwell? He has power and is slightly above average defensively. Sure he doesn’t take a walk and his contact rate isn’t that good but a relatively young, arbitration-eligible (until 2017) 4th outfielder/platoon bat with some decent speed, defense and power doesn’t seem like a bad idea to me…your thoughts?

The Yankees had the 29-year-old Maxwell in camp last season, but he was out of minor league options and they lost him on waivers to the Astros at the end of Spring Training. He put together a 107 wRC+ overall with Houston, but was especially tough on southpaws: .272/.387/.505 (144 wRC+). Maxwell has some Andruw Jones in him (the old version, not the Braves version) because he hits for big power (.232 ISO), will draw a walk (9.1%), and can strike out with the best of ’em (32.4%). Andruw actually has more favorable rates, but Maxwell will steal the occasional base and is better on defense.

Clearly the Yankees should have dumped Jones and kept Maxwell last year, but that’s a pure hindsight statement. Maxwell is a platoon player on the short-end of the playing time stick and should be treated as such. The Yankees shouldn’t have to overpay to get him back just because. If the Astros will take a Grade-B prospect, sure. I wouldn’t go much higher, we’re not talking about Mike Trout here. Maxwell is under team control for another few years and that’s nice, but I don’t focus too much on years of control when talking about bench guys (and relievers). They rarely stick around that long anyway.

Anonymous asks: Given that college baseballs apparently travel less in the air and have higher seams (which make breaking balls more effective), how would you evaluate college players in light of this? Would you downgrade fly ball pitchers and/or pitchers with less velocity (i.e., more reliant on breaking balls)? Would you give extra credit to hitters who had success against breaking balls?

It’s not just college balls, the balls they use in the minors are different than the ones they use in the big leagues as well. Craig Hansen and Bryce Cox were two guys who threw vicious breaking balls in school but couldn’t get the ball to move the same way as a professional, so they flamed out. Teams are obviously aware of this and I don’t really know how they address it. I’m guessing each club does it a different way. Preferably you’d see a pitcher several times (high school, college, summer league, private workout, etc.) before the draft, giving you plenty of chances (with different balls) to evaluate him. Hitters who can hit breaking balls tend to grade out well anyway, but I’m not sure if you’d give him extra credit for doing it against a college ball. I don’t really know the answer to this question, but the difference in balls (this applies to Japan and Korea as well) is something teams must consider when evaluating a player.

Chris asks: Would you consider new aged sabermetrics a “performance-enhancer”? 25 years ago players were judged based on simple stats which were visible and tangible to the fan. RBI, HR, AVG etc. Now advanced metrics allow us to judge players on a whole new level. Wouldn’t you agree that certain platoon players would have not found jobs 25 years ago but do today because certain metrics say they can still hit lefties or are victims of bad ball in play luck?

“Performance-enchancer” implies that they’re helping the player perform better than they normally would. A player getting a job because some front office executive used stats to determine he was being undervalued doesn’t really qualify to me. Maybe if the player was using stats to improve his performance they would be considered a “performance-enhancer,” but I’m not sure how that would work. It’s not like a pitcher could independently focus on lowering his HR/FB% or something. Looking at stats is the same as looking at scouting reports for me.

Just as an aside: The term “performance-enhancer” itself bugs me because it carries far too many connotations. I wish they’d just stick to calling them banned substances. No need to automatically tag them as performance-enchancing when we don’t know how much they really help. Trust me, there have been plenty of players who improperly used PEDs and wound up hurting themselves more than they helped.

If the Yankees won’t sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, Nick Castellanos would be a good fallback plan

Mailbag: Castellanos, Cuddyer, Pacheco, Maxwell