Mookie Betts Archives - River Avenue Blues

Which is a worse sign: Playing poorly with your same team as last year or playing poorly with a similar team that is riddled with injuries? Welcome to Yankees-Red Sox 2019.

Their Story Thus Far

After winning 108 games and the World Series a year ago, the Red Sox slump into Yankee Stadium with a 6-11 record. They have the worst run differential in the AL at -32 runs and have given up 6.24 runs per game. Their bullpen has actually been middle of the pack while their starting pitching has let them down with a 7.17 ERA, the worst in baseball. Only David Price (3.79) has an ERA under 7.98 within their regular rotation.

Meanwhile, Boston’s lineup has been disappointing. J.D. Martinez is, more ore less, duplicating his results of a year ago while Xander Bogaerts and Mitch Moreland are both off to hot starts. However, Mookie Betts hasn’t been his All-Star/MVP self (more on that below) while Jackie Bradley Jr. hasn’t hit a lick. In total, the offense that set the world on fire in 2018 in 23rd in the league with an 83 wRC+.

Player Spotlight: Mookie Betts

Through 17 games, Betts hasn’t quite hit like himself. For Boston, that’s OK; it’s only mid-April. The question, however, is whether Betts will return to his 2016/2018 MVP-esque level or will be the 2015/2017 All-Star deserving version of himself.

The 26-year-old outfielder has six extra-base hits and has a .222 average a year after winning the batting title. Part of that is simply BABIP luck: He has a .229 BABIP after a .368 mark a year ago.

Yet, there are some underlying questions. His walk rate is right in between his 2017 and ’18 marks, though it’s still impressive at 12.2 percent. His strikeouts, meanwhile, have continued to rise as a mildly alarming trend. His average exit velocity is down from 92.2 in 2018 to 90.0 mph this season.

Perhaps Betts is just a hot week from re-establishing himself. With plenty of struggling players surrounding him, Boston could use the boost. Five of his eight hits have gone for extra bases in 36 ABs against Wednesday starter J.A. Happ.

Injury Report

Andrew Benintendi (foot contusion) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (flu) were both held out of the Patriots’ Day game and are day-to-day. Brock Holt (scratched cornea) should begin a rehab assignment this week while reliever Brian Johnson is on the 10-day IL with elbow inflammation.

Potential Lineup

Andrew Benintendi, LF (.293/.364/.448, 117 wRC+)
Mookie Betts, RF (.222/.324/.413, 94 wRC+)
Steve Pearce, 1B (.125/.176/.125, -23 wRC+)
J.D. Martinez, DH (.344/.417/.563, 159 wRC+)
Xander Bogaerts, SS (.304/.403/.500, 143 wRC+)
Rafael Devers, 3B (.254/.343/.305, 81 wRC+)
Dustin Pedroia, 2B (.105/.150/.105, -39 wRC+)
Jackie Bradley Jr., CF (.149/.196/.170, -7 wRC+)
Christian Vazquez, C (.195/.233/.415, 58 wRC+)

Though the Yankees are starting two lefties, I doubt Pearce starts over Moreland (151 wRC+) in both games. Bradley’s illness could open the door for Pearce or Martinez to play the outfield and Moreland to man first.

Oh my god! We’re having a fire … Sale. (Getty Images) (They can’t fire me for puns, right?)

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday (6:35 PM ET) James Paxton (vs. Red Sox) vs. Chris Sale (vs. Yankees)

Sale’s dreadful beginning to 2019 has been one of the biggest stories not just for the Red Sox, but for baseball. The lanky lefty received a $145 million extension this offseason and the Red Sox treated him carefully this spring, cutting down on his workload after he ended 2018 later than ever (the Fall Classic will do that) and with shoulder issues.

Boston lined him up to start in this series. The Sox did the same thing a year ago and it was intimidating. Now, with Sale owning a 9.00 ERA, a 7.31 FIP and an alarming drop in swinging strikes, it could be an opportunity for the Bombers.

His velocity on his four-seamer is down 3.4 mph from 2018 to just 91.3 mph in three starts. Now, his velo was down to start 2018, but not nearly this much and hitters have made him pay. He got his first swinging strike on a fastball in his third start and has a 6.5 percent K-BB rate after posting a 31.9 percent mark from 2017-18 to lead baseball by a healthy margin.

It isn’t just the velocity; His command has also been suspect. Rachael McDaniel detailed it well for Fangraphs, but he hasn’t had good location on his slider, leaving it up in the zone. Can he regain his fastball, slider and his season? The Yankees, or what’s left of them, will be a tough test.

Wednesday (6:35 PM ET) J.A. Happ (vs. Red Sox) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (vs. Yankees)

Just like Sale, Eovaldi had the Yankees’ number a year ago and beat them in the postseason. I don’t need to remind you about ALDS Game 3, right? Good.

Well, Eovaldi has arguably been worse than Sale this season. He’s allowed six home runs in 15 innings, going just five innings in each of his three starts. He has 10 strikeouts and 10 walks, an 8.40 ERA and a 9.22 FIP.

The velocity on his four-seamer and cutter (high and low 90s, respectively) are about the same as last season with his splitter and slider down a couple of mph and curveball up half a mph. Still, batters have beat up on his signature cutter, owning a .941 slugging percentage against his second-most-used pitch.

Again, he was especially good against the Yanks last season, so the matchup favors him, but Eovaldi has had a rough 2019 thus far.

Bullpen Status

As you likely know, Alex Cora doesn’t have an established closer, instead mining for matchups without Craig Kimbrel under contract. Here’s my best guess as to how the bullpen hierarchy works:

Highest leverage: Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes

Medium to high leverage: Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree and Tyler Thornburg, in descending order of average leverage index this season

Medium to low leverage: Colten Brewer and Erasmo Ramirez.

Long man/spot starter: Hector Velazquez

Velazquez started and went three innings in Patriots’ Day game Monday, so he’s likely unavailable for series. Brewer and Ramirez, the latter just called up, are newer names and have had mixed results for Boston thus far. (Ramirez has previously served as a starter and can provided length out of the bullpen.) Brasier and Barnes, meanwhile, have been strong, as has Brandon Workman who has yet to give up a run.

Brewer, Workman, Hembree and Thornburg each threw one inning Monday and should be available to relieve Sale on Tuesday if the need arises.

Keys to watch

Sale’s slider

Watching on TV, Sale’s velocity will be a constant topic of conversation. I’d guess it’ll still be hovering in the low 90s. But the focus, at least to me, should be on his slider command. If he can get his back-foot slider going to righties, the left-hander can still be effective at lower velocity. If he can’t locate it, the Yankees should tee off.

Calling on quality

Can the Yankees get a quality start? They’ve gotten three this season and neither Happ nor Paxton have completed six innings.

Quality starts as a stat are clunky, but the lack of QSs underline an issue for New York: They’re getting very little length out of their starters, 4.84 innings per start, to be exact. With Dellin Betances out and Chad Green struggling to perform, the team can’t afford to overload its bullpen, no matter its preseason hype. Six innings from either Paxton or Happ would be an upgrade.

In all likelihood, Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts will be named AL MVP this year. He is the proverbial “best player on the best team,” which always leads to MVP love, and it wouldn’t be undeserved. Betts hit .346/.438/.640 (185 wRC+) with 32 homers and 30 steals during the regular season, and he led MLB with +10.4 fWAR and +10.8 bWAR. It was the first Trout-like season by someone other than Mike Trout since Bryce Harper’s MVP year in 2015.

Betts wrecked the Yankees during the regular season like he wrecked pretty much every team, hitting .415/.506/.738 with ten doubles and three homers in 17 games. In those 17 games against the Yankees, he reached base 40 times and had 48 total bases. Betts failed to reach base only twice in his 17 regular season games against the Yankees this year. He’s great player and he was especially great against the Yankees this year.

That all said, through two games in the ALDS, the Yankees have largely kept Betts in check. He is 1-for-7 at the plate with a walk. The walk was intentional and the base hit was a third inning leadoff double against J.A. Happ in Game One. Betts was ahead in the count 3-1, home plate umpire Cory Blaser gave Happ a gift strike two call, then Betts golfed the next pitch off the Green Monster.

Betts did not reach base in Game Two — he went 0-for-4 with a hard line out and three otherwise harmless batted balls — and, partly because of that, J.D. Martinez batted with only one runner on base in his four at-bats. When you’re trying to hold down the Red Sox offense, that’s a great way to do it. Limiting traffic in front of Martinez is a must.

The Yankees have, to some degree, changed up their approach against Betts in the ALDS, though it is only eight plate appearances against five different pitchers (Masahiro Tanaka three times, Happ twice, Zach Britton once, Chad Green once, Lance Lynn once). Here’s the quick breakdown:

Regular season: 50.3% fastballs, 34.1% breaking balls, 15.6% offspeed
ALDS: 60.0% fastballs, 22.9% breaking balls, 17.1% offspeed

Three at-bats against the fastball heavy Happ and Lynn are balanced out by three at-bats against the anti-fastball Tanaka. Then again, it’s eight at-bats, so it’s possible if not likely this is all sample size noise. This much I do know: Not counting the intentional walk, Betts has seen a hitter friendly 2-0 or 3-1 count only twice in his seven ALDS at-bats. That’s a good way to limit a hitter’s production. Stop him from seeing favorable counts.

Betts is so good that holding him down for an entire postseason series feels impossible. I swear, every time the guy makes an out, it feels like luck. His hands are lightning fast and he rarely swings and misses. I’m not sure there’s a hole anywhere in his swing. He can beat you in so many ways too. With his power, with his patience, with his speed. Plus he does stuff like this defensively. Give credit where it’s due. Betts is a hell of a ballplayer.

The Yankees have done a good job keeping Betts in check so far in the ALDS. Holding him to a double and an intentional walk through two games is a pretty great outcome. Better than I would’ve expected. I’m not sure limiting him a .143 AVG and a .250 OBP for an entire best-of-five series is possible, but the longer the Yankees can prevent him from having an impact, the greater their chances of advancing.

4/16 to 4/17 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox