Michael Wuertz Archives - River Avenue Blues

Scouting The Trade Market: Michael Wuertz

June 13, 2011 by Mike 31 Comments

Injuries have really done a number of the Yankees’ bullpen of late, taking away both Joba Chamberlain and Rafael Soriano for a while, though there’s some hope that Soriano will be able to start throwing this week. Some of the minor league reinforcements like Amaury Sanit (hah), Tim Norton, and Mark Prior are also on the disabled list, so the well is starting to run dry. Even if Soriano comes back relatively soon, the Yankees will still have to go outside the organization for help anyway. They’ve lost that much depth.

One team that could be a trade match is the Athletics, who are sinking like a stone after losing a dozen of their last 13 games and firing their manager. They have a full five man rotation on the disabled list, as Brett Anderson recently joined Dallas Braden, Brandon McCarthy, Rich Harden, and Tyson Ross on the shelf. Bigger names like Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes are sure to be mentioned, but perhaps the best fit is slider specialist Michael Wuertz. Let’s break it down…

The Pros

Wuertz is death on right-handers thanks to one of the game’s best sliders. He’s holding same side batters to a .103/.167/.205 batting line this year and .192/.258/.306 with 32.7% strikeouts since the start of 2009. Batters have missed with 13.4% of their swings against him this season, which is insanely high but actually down from 15.4% last year and 17.9% two years ago.
Although his calling card is his ability to shut down righties, Wuertz is also more than serviceable against lefties. They’re hitting .242/.353/.345 off him this year and .212/.291/.389 since the start of 2009. His slider is so good that he uses it against lefties as well, which is not something you usually see.
He has experience in a variety of roles, including middle relief work and setup man duties, plus he even spent some time as Oakland’s closer when Andrew Bailey got hurt last year. For what it’s worth, he’s also pitched in the postseason (with the Cubs back in 2007). I don’t put much stock in that, but it doesn’t hurt.
Wuertz’s contract contains a club option for next year, so it would not necessarily be a rental. He currently projects as a Type-B free agent, so the Yankees could get a draft pick should they let him walk.

The Cons

As great as that slider is, Wuertz uses it 51.5% of the time, a very high rate. Slider usage that extreme usually leads to elbow trouble, with Brad Lidge, Justin Speier, and Manny Corpas being recent and notable examples.
Sure enough, Wuertz has dealt with some injuries over the last two years. He missed all of April with shoulder tendinitis last season, then missed a few weeks with an oblique strain this April. Thumb issues also shelved him for some time last September (no DL trip because of expanded rosters though).
His strikeout rate is trending downward, though it’s still more than respectable at 7.91 K/9. It’s just not as good as 9.08 batters he struck out per nine innings last year, or the 11.67 he struck out per nine in 2009.
The club option proves for some nice flexibility, but it’s not exactly cheap. Wuertz is making $2.8M this season (about $467,000 per month, pro-rated) and the option will pay him $3.25M next year ($250,000 buyout). The Yankees can obviously afford it, but that’s pricey by middle reliever standards.

It’s tough to come up a player similar to Wuertz that’s been traded in recent years just to get an idea of the likely cost, plus we can’t forget that Billy Beane always seems to ask for the moon. The Twins gave up a C-level prospect to get Jon Rauch from the Diamondbacks two years ago, but that was part of a waiver trade a month after the deadline. Kyle Farnsworth was traded to the Braves along with Rick Ankiel last year, so that doesn’t help us either. Matt Capps had the Proven Closer™ tag last year, so that doesn’t work either. Anyway, Wuertz makes some sense for the Yankees just because he’s a veteran arm with a standout pitch and experience in high-leverage spots. He’s really not all that different from Joba when you think about it.

Mailbag: Oakland Relievers

January 6, 2011 by Mike 12 Comments

Andrew Bailey — Not gonna happen. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Tucker asks: You already wrote about possible deals with the A’s for starting pitchers, but what about relievers? Could guys like Blevins, Breslow, Wuertz or Ziegler be had and would they be worth it? Could taking a shot on Joey Devine play dividends?

Here’s the post I wrote about Oakland starters earlier this offseason, before the Hisashi Iwakuma fallout and the David DeJesus/Vin Mazzaro trade. Maybe a trade for a starter could have been worked out if things had played out differently, maybe not. At the moment, the A’s are set to open the season with Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, and the winner of the Rich Harden-Brandon McCarthy Spring Training battle in the rotation. That leaves about 14 candidates for the bullpen according to the team’s 40-man roster, but of course some of those guys still need time in the minors. Regardless, they have plenty of bullpen depth and can afford to move one or two relievers for an upgrade elsewhere.

Assuming that former Rookie of the Year and two-time All Star Andrew Bailey is off-limits, let’s look at five of the team’s better relievers and see if they’d make sense for the Yankees.

Jerry Blevins
I’m not sure if anyone has shut down lefty batters as quietly as Blevins has in recent years. He’s held them to just a .276 wOBA with 54 strikeouts and six unintentional walks in exactly 200 plate appearances against. It’s not a huge sample, but it’s what we have. His career ground ball rate isn’t fantastic (36.6%), but it’s workable. From what I can gather, he has one minor league option (though I could easily be wrong, this stuff can be tricky) and five more years of team control remaining (he’s going to qualify as a Super Two, however), so he also provides quite a bit of flexibility. The 27-year-old Blevins fits in any team’s bullpen.

Craig Breslow
A Yale grad, Breslow bounced from the Padres to the Red Sox to the Indians to the Twins before finally sticking with the A’s. His overall numbers were rock solid in 2010, pitching to a 3.91 FIP with 8.56 K/9 and 3.01 uIBB/9 in 74.2 IP. The lefty held same-side batters to .273 wOBA in 2010, and for his career it’s a .265 wOBA against. His 83-31 K/uIBB ratio in 360 plate appearances isn’t as good as Blevins’, but it’s plenty good enough. The biggest negative is that he’s an extreme fly ball guy (70.4% non-grounders last year, and it’s been trending in the wrong direction for a few years now), so Yankee Stadium will exacerbate his already established homerun problem (1.06 HR/9 last few years). Breslow is definitely out-of-options, so he has to stick in the big leagues no matter what, plus he’s just heading into his arbitration years and will be making some decent coin.

Joey Devine
Back when it was cool to draft college closers in the first round, the Braves made Devine the 27th overall pick in the 2005 draft, one spot ahead of Colby Rasmus. I think Atlanta would like to push the reset button on that one. The 27-year-old hasn’t thrown a pitch (majors or minors) since 2008 because of a prolonged recovery from Tommy John surgery, but the A’s stuck by him and have continued to renew his contract since (a total of $1.525M counting his 2011 salary). He was lights out in 2008, striking out 9.66 batters per nine while walking just 2.56 unintentionally per nine in 45.2 innings (zero homers, 0.59 ERA, 1.97 FIP). That accounts for 69.9% of his big league career in terms of innings. Devine, a rare sidearmer that throws hard (averaged 93.3 mph), has demonstrated a slight platoon split in his brief time in the majors: .240 wOBA against vs. RHB, .274 vs. LHB. He has to be considered a complete unknown given the long layoff, but there is some upside here.

Michael Wuertz
You’d be hard pressed to find a better relief season than Wuertz’s 2009 campaign. He struck out 102 batters in 78.2 innings (11.67 K/9) and walked just 22 unintentionally (2.52 uIBB/9). Combine that with an above average 45.5% ground ball rate, and you’ve got yourself one hell of a dominant reliever. That season earned Wuertz a two-year, $5.25M contract (with an option), buying out his final two years of arbitration eligibility. Elbow trouble (completely unsurprising for a guy that throws about 60% sliders) and minor thumb tendinitis limited him to just 39.2 IP in 2010, when his rate stats dropped to 9.08 K/9, 3.63 uIBB/9, and 41.3% grounders. He also became strikingly homer prone (1.36 HR/9 after a few sub-1.00 years). If you acquire him, you’re gambling $3.05M (his 2011 salary plus the buyout of his $3.25M option) that he reverts back to the guy he was in 2009. In terms of walk and homerun rate, that 2009 season sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his career.

Brad Ziegler
Ziegler burst onto the scene with a 39.1 inning scoreless streak to start his big league career back in 2008, but since then he’s been a rather generic sinker-slider submarine reliever. He makes up for a mediocre strikeout rate (5.81 K/9 career) by getting a ton of ground balls (60.5% career) and limiting walks (2.88 uIBB/9 career). As with most submariners, Ziegler has a pronounced platoon split and should be considered nothing more than a righty specialist. He’s held right-handed batters to just a .269 wOBA, but lefties have tattooed him for a .371 wOBA. The 31-year-old has four years of team control left and at least one minor league option remaining.

* * *

The Yankees have shown interest in Wuertz before, but Blevins and Ziegler are the most desirable to me given their low cost and general flexibility. The fact that both are nothing more than specialists sucks, but it is what it is. I can’t imagine the A’s would be willing to part with Devine (at a reasonable price, anyway) after sticking with him for so long. Perhaps a potential trade could be expanded to include Conor Jackson, who is stuck in limbo after the A’s rebuilt their corner outfields this winter. He’s a righty hitting leftfielder/first baseman with a career .373 wOBA against southpaws that does not strike out at all (just 238 K in almost 2,100 career plate appearances, 4.9% swings and misses). The problem is that he’s been hurt (Valley fever, two hamstring strains, and a sports hernia) and generally awful (.294 wOBA) over the last two seasons. He earned $3.1M last season and will make at least that in 2011 during his final trip through the arbitration process, and that’s simply too much money to gamble on a rebound candidate for the bench in my book. Why Oakland didn’t non-tender him, I’ll never know.

Anyone, one of the problems involving a potential deal is that these two clubs don’t match up well. Oakland’s pitching staff is generally set, and after adding Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, and Hideki Matsui this winter, their lineup is pretty much set as well. They re looking for an upgrade over Kevin Kouzmanoff at third base, but they Yankees don’t have that guy to offer. Maybe prospects would get it done, but I don’t like the idea of giving up prospects for relievers, especially flawed ones like Ziegler and Blevins. There’s definitely a it for the Yankees, but not for the Athletics, and it takes two to tango.

Yankees monitoring Michael Wuertz

July 9, 2010 by Mike 5 Comments

While adding Cliff Lee strengthens the rotation, the Yankees still need to address their bullpen. They’re reportedly monitoring A’s righty Michael Wuertz, who had a simply absurd season in relief last year: 2.61 xFIP, 102-23 K/BB ratio in 72.2 IP. Success has been as easy to come by this season, as he’s posted a 5.01 xFIP with just 6.75 K/9 after missing April with shoulder tendinitis.

There’s no indication that Oakland is shopping the 31-year-old, but Billy Beane isn’t shy about making moves. For what it’s worth, the A’s bought out the rest of Wuertz’s team control seasons this winter, so he’s under contract for $2.8M next year with a $3.25M for 2012. Meh.

Arms race doesn’t just mean starters for Yanks

July 23, 2009 by Joe Pawlikowski 215 Comments

When the trade deadline nears each year, there’s always a big name or two associated with the Yankees. This year is no exception, as the biggest name on the market, Roy Halladay, has been linked with the Bombers. That talk has since quieted. Toronto is asking a lot for their ace, as they should. The Yankees, already spending over $30 million on their top two pitchers this year (counting CC’s signing bonus), apparently don’t want to take on yet another hefty salary and surrender their top prospects. There’s still a chance they swoop in at the last minute, but it’s not at all likely.

This morning, Mike looked at other starting pitchers who could be on the market. With Sergio Mitre holding down the fifth spot in the rotation until further notice, the Yankees are right to keep their feelers out for any potential deals. But does it have to be for a starter? After all, they do have a perfectly good starter in the bullpen right now. They could always acquire a reliever and take the time to stretch out Hughes. What relievers could they acquire?

We’ve surely done this exercise before, but the landscape has changed in July. Some guys we’d thought were available are now not. Others who previously flew under the radar are now showing up. Here’s the most up-to-date list. I’m sure we’ll do this again next week.

Chad Qualls and Jon Rauch

At 21 games back in the NL West and 12 games back of the Wild Card, the Diamondbacks are essentially done. This puts them in the sellers’ column. The Yanks could be interested in two of their relief pitchers: Chad Qualls and Jon Rauch. Both are 30 years old, and both are posting solid seasons.

Qualls boasts a decent strikeout rate and a super-impressive walk rate (1.1 per nine). He could fit into the eighth inning role nicely. His Major League experience dates back to 2004, and he’s never posted an ERA above 3.76 in any season. He’s also kept his walk rate below 3 per nine in every season he’s pitched. The only problem is that he’s relatively cheap for a closer ($2.535 million this season), and still has one more arbitration year. The D’Backs might want to hold onto him for their 2010 campaign.

Rauch pitched horribly after the Nationals traded him to the Diamondbacks last season, and started off equally poorly this season. Since the 27th of May, though, the 6′ 11″ righty has been quite good, allowing just five runs over 22.2 innings, striking out 12 and walking five. He’s thrown strikes — 65 percent — and has kept the ball in the park, surrendering just one homer in that span. He’s another one the D’Backs might want to keep, though: he has an affordable $2.9 million club option for 2010.

Rafael Betancourt

After three and a half solid seasons at the big league level, Rafael Betancourt exploded in 2007, posting a 1.47 ERA and striking out 80 batters over 79.1 innings. More impressively, he walked just nine batters all season. After a clunker of a 2008 season, Betancourt has returned to his pre-2007 form this year. That is, a fairly capable bullpen arm. He’s striking out about a batter per inning, though his walk rate is way up (4.4 per nine). The last-place Indians could certainly deal him now rather than make a decision on his $5.4 million club option in the off-season.

Betancourt missed all of June with an injury. He’s appeared five times since returning, pitching an inning each time and allowing just two hits and one run, walking one. It’s nothing to make a trade on, but it could entice a team with a bullpen need to make a move.

John Grabow

Neal Huntington took over as Pirates GM in September 2007, and he’s absolutely cleaned house. Of the main eight starters that season, based on plate appearances, just two remain: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez. And guess what? He’s making an effort to trade them now, though both could hit free agency after the season. He does have a few pitchers left over from before his time, and just about every one of them is available in some capacity.

The Yanks already snagged Damaso Marte from Huntington, and the hope is that he can contribute in August. Even so, the Yanks could add another arm. Seemingly atop Pittsburgh’s dish-list is free agent to be John Grabow. His ERA sits pretty at 3.07, but his walk rate, almost 5 per nine, is unacceptable. Looking at his hit and walk rate combined, it would seem that he’s due for an implosion. Let that happen on another team.

Michael Wuertz

The Oakland A’s are just no good this year. When they’re not competing, you know Billy Beane is working behind the scenes to pick up some young players. One interesting name is Michael Wuertz, a 30-year-old righty who quietly pitched well in the Cubs bullpen before this season. The A’s acquired him in a minor move, and it has paid off.

Wuertz currently boasts the lowest walk rate of his career, and is combining it with excellent strikeout numbers. His slider has been deemed the toughest pitch to hit in baseball. Problem is, the A’s have his rights through the 2011 season, so he won’t come cheap. Players rarely do when Billy Beane deals them.

This list doesn’t look too promising. Most of the players are either bad or under team control for a number of years. The Yankees won’t want any of the former — they have enough mediocre bullpen arms, thank you very much — and the latter might cost a bit much. Still, if they’re going to deal for an arm, these are basically the guys on the list. What’s the preference out in Yankeeland? I’m a Rauch guy myself, and think he could come at the best value, considering his contract, age, and team.