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Wednesday Notes: Andujar, Sanchez, 60-day IL, Britton

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Gary & Miggy. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Baseball is in the air. Pitchers and catchers reported to Tampa today and Spring Training has begun. Position players are due in camp Monday and the Yankees will play their Grapefruit League opener one week from Saturday. Hooray for that. Anyway, make sure you check out Matt Foley’s piece on Adam Ottavino’s makeshift training facility in Harlem. Here are some other notes to check out.

Marlins wanted Sanchez and Andujar for Realmuto

According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Marlins wanted Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar during J.T. Realmuto trade talks earlier this winter. The deal might’ve been expanded to include utility man Miguel Rojas and possibly another Marlins piece as well. Rosenthal says the Yankees wouldn’t trade Sanchez for Realmuto straight up because he’s younger and under control twice as long. Sanchez and Andujar? Nah.

The Marlins traded Realmuto to the Phillies last week for a three-player package that included top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez and big league catcher Jorge Alfaro, which is decidedly less than Sanchez and Andujar. Rosenthal indicates the Yankees wanted to acquire Realmuto and flip him to the Mets for Noah Syndergaard, which is something we heard back during the Winter Meetings. Talks never gained traction though. Sounds like the Yankees wanted to do all that while subtracting as little from their MLB roster as possible.

Disabled list is now the injured list

The disabled list has a new name. It will now be known as the “injured list” at the suggestion of advocacy groups for the disabled. MLB never did formally announce the change, but teams are using “injured list” in press releases, and it doesn’t get more official than that. There have been no other changes to the DL IL as of now. The MLBPA is pushing to go back to a 15-day IL to help curb roster manipulation. That could happen soon.

“The principal concern is that using the term ‘disabled’ for players who are injured supports the misconception that people with disabilities are injured and therefore are not able to participate or compete in sports. As a result, Major League Baseball has agreed to change the name ‘Disabled List’ to be the ‘Injured List’ at both the major and minor league levels,” said MLB’s senior director of league economics and operations Jeff Pfeifer to the Associated Press. An overdue change, this is.

60-day IL is now open

Quick procedural note: Teams can now place players on the 60-day injured list to open up a 40-man roster spot. I know this because earlier today the Diamondbacks put Taijuan Walker (Tommy John surgery) on the 60-day IL to make room for free agent signing Caleb Joseph, and the Athletics put Sean Manaea (shoulder surgery) on the 60-day IL to make room for free agent signing Brett Anderson.

The Yankees have two 60-day IL candidates in Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) and Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), and potentially two more in Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery) and Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery). Next time they need a 40-man spot, I imagine Montgomery will be first to go on the 60-day IL. I should note that, if you put a player on the 60-day IL in Spring Training, the clock on the 60 days does not start until Opening Day. You can’t put a guy on the 60-day IL now and get credit for 40-something days during Spring Training.

Zach Britton is now Zack Britton

Here’s another name change: Zack Britton is now going by Zack with a K instead of Zach with an H. The Yankees announced it last week. “I was born Zack, with a ‘ck,’ but I didn’t know until I went to get a passport it was really with a ‘ck.’ My parents had told me it was with a ‘ch.’ I am blaming my parents,” Britton joked to Kristie Ackert. “The Orioles always just put the ‘ck’ on any legal documents and I went by ‘ch,’ with everything else.”

Ackert says the Yankees and Britton had to rewrite their contract this offseason to change Zach to Zack. Sounds like all his paperwork with the Orioles over the years was correct, but everyone around the league thought it was Zach, and it wasn’t until he signed with a new team that it came to light. Anyway, Britton says going by Zach never bothered him. So far DL/IL has tripped me up more than Zach/Zack, but dude, if you’re going to change your name, don’t change one letter. Go full Giancarlo.

Teams will wear MLB 150 jersey patches this year

Earlier this week MLB announced all 30 teams will wear an “MLB 150” patch on their sleeve this season to celebrate the 1869 Cincinnati Red Stockings, the first ever professional baseball team. They were the first team with an entire roster of salaried players. Teams will also wear the patch on the side of their caps on Opening Day. The patches are pretty snazzy. Here’s a look:

(@MLB)

“We’re excited to recognize the 150th anniversary of professional baseball by honoring our history while celebrating the game and the great players of today. The MLB 150 patch will be a continuous reminder on the field of the link everyone involved in the game today has with the storied history of professional baseball and MLB,” said commissioner Rob Manfred in a statement. Celebrating the first salaried team while clubs simultaneously work to suppress player salaries is something else.

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Wednesday

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Yankees pls. (Rob Carr/Getty)

The Winter Meetings are two days old and thus far the Yankees have been mentioned in one potential blockbuster, a three-team trade that would bring Noah Syndergaard to the Bronx, but that seems like a long shot. It always did. The Mets trading three years of Syndergaard to get two years of J.T. Realmuto doesn’t add up. The Yankees will (probably) have to come up with a starting pitcher another way.

“We have our comfort levels and if and whenever we do match up on the trade or free agent front, then we’ll have something to show for it, but there’s no guarantee that will happen anytime soon,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera. “(A deal) could happen today. We’re very active. But at the same time, we’re disciplined about what we’re willing to do and what we’re not willing to do.”

In addition to the Syndergaard thing, we’ve learned the Yankees are open to trading Miguel Andujar, still have interest in Zach Britton, and will meet with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper at some point. The Harper meeting will take place during the Winter Meetings because he lives in Las Vegas. Machado will come visit the Yankees in New York. No moves so far this week but lots of chatter.

Here are Monday’s rumors and Tuesday’s rumors. Today is the final full day of the Winter Meetings — everyone will head home after the Rule 5 Draft tomorrow — so, if the Yankees are going to get a deal done in Las Vegas, it’ll probably happen today. Anyway, here are today’s Yankees-related rumors. This post will be updated throughout the day so check back often. All timestamps are Eastern Time:

  • 7:07pm: Well, forget about a Lance Lynn reunion. The Rangers gave him a three-year deal worth $30M, according to multiple reports. Imagine?
  • 5:31pm: “I’ve never heard the Yankees say (they’re out on Bryce Harper). It might be that they say things to you. I wasn’t there,” said Scott Boras today. Keep in mind Boras wants everyone to think the Yankees are in on Harper even if they’re not. [Ken Davidoff]
  • 3:20pm: The Yankees remain in “active discussions” with the Reds about Sonny Gray. Cincinnati seems to be connected to everyone this winter, including Corey Kluber. [Jon Morosi]
  • 3:18pm: The Yankees have discussed trade possibilities with the Indians regarding their starting pitchers. There is no traction at the moment because the asking price is quite high. [Marc Carig]
  • 2:00pm: The Yankees have been in contact with Freddy Galvis‘ representatives. He’s an excellent defender with double-digit homer power but poor on-base skills (career .290 OBP). Obviously the Yankees are considering him as a potential Didi Gregorius replacement. [Joel Sherman]
  • 11:14am: In addition to J.A. Happ, the Yankees are in the mix for Lance Lynn. I would be perfectly fine with Lynn as a long man/sixth starter type. As the Opening Day fifth starter? Nah. Seems like there’s enough interest in Lynn that he’ll get a rotation spot elsewhere and not have to settle for a swingman role with the Yankees. [Mark Feinsand]
  • 9:56am: The Yankees have not yet given any thought to signing Troy Tulowitzki. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki with two years and $38M remaining on his contract yesterday, so any team can sign him for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Tulowitzki did not play at all this past season due to heel trouble but he’s recovered and is working out this winter. [Brendan Kuty]
  • 9:43am: Brian Cashman met with Adam Ottavino‘s agent last night. He is believed to be high on their wish list. Ottavino grew up in Brooklyn but I wouldn’t put much stock into the hometown thing. Money is usually the determining factor in free agency. [Joel Sherman]
  • 9:30am: The Phillies are believed to be inching closer to a deal with J.A. Happ, who is holding out for a three-year contract. “They are bringing it,” said one executive. The Yankees have interest in a reunion with Happ but thus far have been unwilling to offer a third year. [George King]
  • 9:30am: Internally, it was “never even much of a debate” for the Yankees to chase J.T. Realmuto. They value Gary Sanchez highly and he has four years of team control remaining whereas Realmuto only has two. [Joel Sherman]

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Tuesday

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Day One of the Winter Meetings came and went yesterday without much activity. The were two small signings (Billy Hamilton to the Reds, Tyson Ross to the Tigers) and several waiver claims. That’s about it. There were plenty of rumors, of course, and the Yankees were involved in a few of ’em. Brian Cashman admitted he’s been in touch with Manny Machado’s and Yusei Kikuchi’s agents, plus we learned the Yankees aren’t comfortable with a three-year deal for J.A. Happ. Can’t say I am either.

“The operation that George (Steinbrenner) was able to operate and navigate through is nowhere close to the one that Hal Steinbrenner has to operate and navigate through,” Cashman said to Ronald Blum. “It’s a convenient, easy story to write about us being different than the Boss’s Yankees, but the game’s completely different, too, And I think we’ve been operating in a different capacity because it’s a whole new world order.”

Late last night word got out the Yankees are discussing a three-team trade with the Mets and Marlins that would put Noah Syndergaard in pinstripes. J.T. Realmuto would go to Queens and I assume the Yankees would send prospects to Miami. A trade this complicated is always a long shot — surely the Mets have other ways to get Realmuto without giving up Syndergaard, right? — and that goes double when there’s a Yankees-Mets element involved. This would be pretty rad though.

Anyway, here are Monday’s rumors. We’ll again keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related rumblings right here in this post, so make sure you check back often. Remember, the Winter Meetings are in Las Vegas this year. It might take a little while before everyone on the West Coast wakes up and starts feeding rumors and hot stove news to us East Coasters. All timestamps are Eastern Time. Here’s the latest on Day Two of the Winter Meetings:

  • 7:23pm: Brian Cashman confirmed that pretty much every player on the roster has been asked about in trades this offseason except Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. No one has the guts to ask about Judge, eh? There were some bad contract-for-bad-contract swap talks involving Jacoby Ellsbury. “Money laundering,” Cashman called it. [Bryan Hoch]
  • 4:35pm: The Yankees are one of three teams Manny Machado will visit, presumably after the Winter Meetings. It’s the Yankees, Phillies, and White Sox. Some #MysteryTeams are reportedly involved as well. [Jon Heyman]
  • 4:32pm: Three-team trade talks between the Yankees, Mets, and Marlins are not progressing. The Mets are still pursuing J.T. Realmuto but it sounds they’re looking for ways to get it done without trading one of the best pitchers in baseball. [Jon Morosi]
  • 11:46am: There’s a scenario in which the Yankees trade for J.T. Realmuto, have him split time at catcher and DH with Gary Sanchez, and move Giancarlo Stanton to the outfield. This strikes me as a “hey, Mets, if you don’t do this three-team deal soon we’re just going to keep Realmuto for ourselves” bluff, but we’ll see. [Joel Sherman]
  • 11:41am: The Yankees remain interested in a reunion with Zach Britton. The expectation is his market will begin “narrowing down” by the end of the Winter Meetings, so nothing is imminent. Britton has said he’d like to return to the Yankees. [Brendan Kuty]
  • 11:32am: J.A. Happ has several two-year offers in hand and is still looking for a third year. He’s indicated he’ll sign with the first team that offers that third guaranteed year. It’s been reported the Yankees won’t go there. [Jeff Passan]
  • 10:55am: The Yankees are open to moving Miguel Andujar. That would make sense in the construct of this Syndergaard-Realmuto three-team trade. In theory, the Yankees could trade Andujar to a pitcher and then sign Manny Machado. [Ken Rosenthal]
  • 9:30am: The Yankees and Reds had a “little talk” about second baseman Scooter Gennett. The left-handed hitting Gennett would be close to the ideal replacement for Didi Gregorius. The Reds want to trade him too, apparently. [Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal]
  • 9:30am: Eleven teams initially showed interest in Sonny Gray and the Yankees have now pared the list down and are focusing on trade talks with a select few teams. “We haven’t found the sweet spot yet,” said Brian Cashman. [Joel Sherman]

Yankees, Mets, Marlins reportedly talking three-team trade involving Syndergaard, Realmuto

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Bring to me. (Rich Schultz/Getty)

Here’s a whopper of a late night rumor from the Winter Meetings. According to multiple reports, the Yankees are discussing a three-team trade with the Mets and Marlins that would send J.T. Realmuto to Flushing and bring Noah Syndergaard to the Bronx. The Yankees would presumably send prospects to the Marlins (and probably the Mets too?).

A week or two ago Brian Cashman categorically denied a rumor that he’d made an offer for Realmuto, though the Yankees were connected to the Marlins backstop, and this might explain why. They don’t want Realmuto for themselves — that Gary Sanchez guy is pretty cool — they want to flip him to another team for pitching. Huh. Here’s what we know:

  • The Mets are exploring multiple scenarios to land Realmuto and a three-team trade with the Yankees is “not among the strongest.” [Joel Sherman]
  • The Yankees have interest in Mets starters other than Syndergaard and are “pushing hard” to get a deal done tonight, but nothing is imminent. [Andy Martino & Sherman]
  • It’s still unclear what the Marlins would get in the trade. [Craig Mish]

Keep in mind Marlins director of player development Gary Denbo was the Yankees’ farm system head from 2014-17 and he is still familiar with the system despite being away from the team for a year now. That doesn’t necessarily make a trade more likely, of course. He knows the good and the bad, and the bad might outnumber the good at this point.

Also keep in mind Mets owners Fred and Jeff Wilpon would presumably have to sign off on any trade with the Yankees. I can’t imagine rookie GM Brodie Van Wagenen has the autonomy to do that on his own. There is a very real inferiority complex in place here and a trade that sends Syndergaard — or even Zack Wheeler or Steven Matz — to the Yankees might be too much for the Wilpons to stomach.

The Yankees don’t have nearly as many prospects to trade as they did a few months ago and I’m not sure they could get this trade done without giving up anyone from their MLB roster, specifically Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar. I love Andujar but Gleyber’s the keeper. I guess we’ll see. I’m not sure the Yankees want to subtract much from their MLB roster at this point (other than Sonny Gray).

Even after the James Paxton trade, the Yankees need another starter, preferably a very good one, and they missed out on Patrick Corbin. Syndergaard would be a monumental addition — Wheeler and Matz would be lesser upgrades but upgrades nonetheless — who might swing the balance of power in the AL East. If the Yankees can get him without sacrificing Torres or Andujar, it would be a massive win.

As always, I’m going to need to see the Wilpons sign off on a big Yankees-Mets trade to believe it. They might be the biggest obstacle here, not the general managers agreeing to terms. The Yankees and Mets haven’t made a player-for-player trade since the Mike Stanton-Felix Heredia swap in 2004.

Hot Stove Rumors: Realmuto, Corbin, Miller, Greinke, Gray

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Realmuto. (Mark Brown/Getty)

We’re now into December, traditionally the busiest month of the offseason, and next week the 2018 Winter Meetings begin in Las Vegas. I suspect the Yankees will be among the most active teams at the Winter Meetings. If not transactions-wise, then rumors-wise. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Cashman shoots down Realmuto rumor

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees were among the teams with interest in Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto but “resisted offering other top pieces in a package with (Gary) Sanchez.” Brian Cashman shot that rumor down. “False. Completely false. I saw that somebody had written that we had offered for Realmuto. That is completely false,” said Brian Cashman to George King over the weekend. “(Sanchez) is not for sale,” Cashman added during a YES Network interview (video link), which, to be fair, is what he’d say even if he were open to trading Sanchez.

When I saw the Realmuto rumor my first thought was the Marlins leaked it in an effort to drive up the price for other teams. It doesn’t really pass the sniff test otherwise. I mean, Sanchez and more for Realmuto? Selling low on Gary to buy high on (the very good) Realmuto is a hard pass for me. Sanchez is two years younger, under control two years longer, and almost certainly the more talented player even if he didn’t show it this past season. Their numbers through their age 25 seasons do not compare. Juicy rumor. Fortunately it seems to be nothing more than that.

Corbin meets with Yankees during recruiting trip

Last week Patrick Corbin went on a three-city recruiting trip through Philadelphia, Washington, and New York. The Yankees did the “photoshopped picture on the scoreboard” thing (here’s a photo) and, according to Ken Davidoff, Corbin toured Yankee Stadium and met with Cashman, Aaron Boone, Larry Rothschild, Mike Harkey, and traveling analyst Zac Fieroh. He also ran into CC Sabathia, who was at the park for an offseason workout.

“I wouldn’t call it a recruiting effort as much as an educational effort, where (he’s) getting a chance to see the facilities from the home side (after being here as a visitor),” said Cashman during a recent YES Network interview (video link). “… He’ll get access to all aspects of what we’re about. The brand, our efforts, the people, with Aaron Boone and our coaches and myself and hopefully he’ll walk away getting a better feel for who we are.”

For what it’s worth, Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reports the Nationals are “seriously focused” on Corbin and are believed to be willing to offer six years to get him. It seems Yu Darvish’s six-year, $126M contract with the Cubs is the benchmark here. Of course, a six-year deal is likely to include an opt-out along the way, which changes the calculus a bit. Well, either way, Corbin visited the Yankees last week, and reports indicate he’s looking to sign soon. I hereby dub this situation: “developing.”

Yankees “badly” want another starter this week

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees “badly” want another starter before the Winter Meetings. That jibes with what we heard yesterday. Jayson Stark says the Yankees haven’t ruled out adding two “high-profile” starters — Andy Martino again names Corbin and J.A. Happ as the likely targets — though that seems like a stretch. This strikes me as one of those general “we’re open to the idea” offseason rumors. Adding two starters would be kinda cool though.

As for the report that the Yankees “badly” want a starter before the Winter Meetings, I totally buy it. First and foremost, they want to get the rotation locked down, the sooner the better. Secondly, once the rotation is set, the Yankees will know exactly what resources they have available (trade chips, payroll space) to pursue bullpen help and a Didi Gregorius replacement. The longer the search for a starter drags out, the more unpredictable it gets. (Wanting a starter this week presumably takes the Yankees out of the running for Yusei Kikuchi, whose 30-day posting period opens tomorrow and closes in early-January.)

Yankees have Miller on their radar

Miller. (Christian Petersen/Getty)

The Yankees have Andrew Miller on their radar, according to George King. King also reiterates the team’s interest in Adam Ottavino. A few weeks ago we heard the Yankees requested Miller’s medical information, which is a) standard operation procedure (teams request the medical information of lots of players each winter), and b) not a mere formality given his knee trouble the last two years and shoulder trouble this year. Those medicals will be heavily scrutinized.

Miller, 33, pitched to a 4.24 ERA (3.51 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts and 10.4% walks in 34 innings around the injuries this past season. Those numbers are far worse than what he did as a full-time reliever from 2014-17. The injuries stink but are not necessarily a dealbreaker. With good health, it’s not all that difficult to envision Miller turning in one or two more dominant seasons before things slip for good. The question is how much are the Yankees willing to bet on that? They supposedly want two relievers and a reunion with Miller could be in the cards.

Yankees on Greinke’s no-trade list

According to Zach Buchanan (subs. req’d), the Yankees are on Zack Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list. Like most no-trade lists, Greinke’s includes big market teams that would theoretically be willing to compensate him for waiving his no-trade cause (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies) and rebuilding teams he presumably doesn’t want to play for (Orioles, Tigers, Reds). For what it’s worth, Buchanan says there’s “no way” the Diamondbacks would attach Greinke to Paul Goldschmidt in an effort to unload his contract a la Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz.

Greinke, 35, posted a 3.21 ERA (3.71 FIP) with 23.7% strikeouts and 5.1% walks in 207.2 innings this past season — it was the tenth time in the last eleven seasons he threw at least 170 innings and the eighth time he threw at least 200 innings — so he’s still crazy good. He’s also owed $104.5M the next three years. It should noted the Yankees have steered clear of Greinke whenever he’s become available via trade or free agency. They’ve made it pretty clear they don’t think he’d mix well in New York. Oh well. Even if they were open to a trade, Greinke would have to approve it.

Eleven teams in on Gray

There are eleven teams in on Sonny Gray, reports Davidoff. Among them are the Athletics, Reds, Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins. “I’ve had a lot of interesting dialogue, whether it’s for prospects, whether it’s for Major League our need for their need, whether it’s part of a complicated larger situation that involves prospects and Major Leaguers going both ways. So I think we’ve had a little bit of experience with all aspects of it,” said Cashman.

I honestly have no preference here. Normally I lean toward MLB ready players in return — the Yankees are a win now team, after all — but, if the best offer for Gray is a Single-A prospect(s), so be it. One way or the other, the inevitable Gray trade will help the Yankees at the MLB level. Either they’ll trade him for a big leaguer or they’ll trade him for a prospect(s) and unload his salary, which can then be used on a free agent. I’m not gonna lie, I’m kinda surprised Sonny is still a Yankee. I thought he’d be gone by now.

Another attempt at a bad contract for bad contract trade with Jacoby Ellsbury

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(Presswire)

The 2018-19 offseason is now underway, and over the next several months the Yankees will look to improve their big league roster while sticking to some sort of budget. Every team has a budget. Some teams have bigger budgets than others, but every team has a budget. This past season the Yankees’ budget was the $197M luxury tax threshold, and they stuck to it. They stayed under the threshold.

The luxury tax threshold jumps to $206M next year and the early indications are Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t want to exceed the threshold. “I don’t want to speak for (Hal Steinbrenner), but my general feeling from him and for us has been not wanting to line the pockets of others to let them utilize that excess against us,” said Brian Cashman recently, referring to the fact a portion of the money paid into luxury tax is distributed to other teams.

Cashman indicated he can go to Hal to get approval to exceed the threshold, and I sure hope that is the case, because there are some great free agents out there this winter. Either way, that $206M number is an obstacle of some sorts, and my estimate says the Yankees have $49.7M to spend underneath the threshold. That’s a lot! Not enough for a truly massive free agent spending spree, but it is a lot.

As the Yankees move through the winter they will have to navigate around Jacoby Ellsbury’s albatross contract. There are still two years and roughly $47M remaining on that deal, and Ellsbury missed the entire 2018 season with injuries. It’s unclear whether he’ll be healthy enough for Opening Day. This is also a guy who hit .261/.331/.372 (91 wRC+) in his last 1,500 plate appearances. Now he’s a 35-year-old speed guy coming off major hip surgery. Yuck.

Trading Ellsbury for value is pretty much a pipe dream at this point. The best case scenario is trading him and saving some money, and, even then, the Yankees will have to kick in a sweeter. Remember the Chase Headley trade? The Yankees attached Bryan Mitchell to Headley and saved $13M (!) against the luxury tax this year. Doing something similar with Ellsbury feels like it would take a minor miracle, at least something that leads to that much savings.

Rather than shoot for the moon, I think I’ve found a smaller bad contract for bad contract swap that could work for both teams. The details:

  • Yankees get: Wei-Yin Chen
  • Marlins get: Jacoby Ellsbury and an out of options arm

No, it is not the most exciting trade in the world, but it doesn’t have to be exciting to be worthwhile. Long story short, the Yankees and Marlins would move some money around, which would improve the luxury tax situation in the Bronx and send a younger pitcher to Miami. Let’s break this down.

1. How does the math work? The Yankees and Marlins are concerned about very different numbers. The Yankees are worried more about the luxury tax hit than the actual salary. They care about the actual salary too, don’t get me wrong, but the luxury tax has been driving all their decisions recently. The Marlins, meanwhile, are focused on actual salary. They’re not close to the luxury tax threshold. Luxury tax hits mean nothing to them.

Both Ellsbury and Chen have two years remaining on their contracts. Ellsbury is owed approximately $47M while Chen is owed $42M. Here’s the full breakdown:

Chen Ellsbury
2019 Salary $20M $21.14M
2020 Salary $22M $21.14M
Option Buyout
 N/A $5M
Total Remaining $42M $47.28M
Contract
 5 yrs, $80M 7 yrs, $153M
Contract AAV $16M $21.86M

A straight up trade would save the Yankees $5.86M against the luxury tax in 2019 and again in 2020 ($21.86M minus $16M). They wouldn’t save $13M like the Headley trade, but it’s something, and something is better than nothing. Ellsbury hasn’t played since last year and he’s just sitting on the roster, soaking up luxury tax payroll space. This at least clears some of that space.

Of course, a straight one-for-one trade means the Marlins would absorb $5.28M in real salary spread across 2019-20 ($47.28M minus $42M). Would they do that? Not out of the kindness of their hearts. That’s where the out of options arm comes in.

2. Why would the Marlins do this? The Marlins have two options. One, they could keep Chen and pay him that $42M the next two years. Chen is 33 years old, he has a 4.75 ERA (4.38 FIP) over the last three seasons, and he’s missed a bunch of time with lingering elbow trouble. He has no long-term value to a rebuilding team like Miami. He’s an innings guy they hope will stay healthy and pitch well enough to create some trade value, which is unlikely. That rarely happens.

Or two, they could make the trade outlined above and essentially buy a young pitcher. The Yankees have three out of options pitchers, meaning they can’t be sent to the minors next season without going through waivers: Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, and Domingo German. (Tommy Kahnle is out of options too, but I don’t think he’d interest the Marlins.) I’d rank those three pitchers German, Cessa, Cole in that order. Remember that $5.28M the Marlins would have to eat in the trade? How’s this work:

  1. Marlins eat all $5.28M and get German.
  2. Marlins eat half the $5.28M and get Cessa.
  3. Marlins eat none of the $5.28M and get Cole.

The more money Miami eats, the better the pitcher they get in return. (Who the Marlins consider the best pitcher may not be who I consider the best pitcher, obviously.) If they eat the $5.28M difference in salary, they get a the best young pitcher in German and the Yankees get Chen with a $16M luxury tax hit. If the Yankees have to eat the entire $5.28M, the Marlins get the worst out of options arm in Cole and the Yankees get Chen with an $18.64M luxury tax hit — that’s the $5.28M cut in half and added to the $16M in 2019 and 2020 — which is still $3.22M in luxury tax savings in 2019 and 2020.

So it boils down to this: The Marlins can either keep Chen, who has no value to them, or make the trade and get a young enough arm who might help long-term. They’re buying a young arm, basically. Keep in mind Marlins executive Gary Denbo was the Yankees’ farm system head from 2014-17. He presumably has some insight into German and Cessa, which could help push things along. The $40-something-million is a sunk cost. The Marlins have to pay it to someone no matter that. They can either pay it to Ellsbury and get a younger pitcher in the process, or pay it to Chen.

(Scott Taetsch/Getty)

3. Why would the Yankees do this? For the luxury tax savings, obviously. The worst case scenario here is eating the $5.28M difference in salaries and giving up a spare out of options arm in Cole, who is probably not going to stick on the roster all offseason anyway, and saving $3.22M against the luxury tax payroll. The best case scenario is the shedding the full $5.28M difference in salaries and giving up a spare out of options arm in German, who also might not stick on the roster all offseason, and saving $5.86M against the luxury tax. Worthwhile either way.

What do the Yankees do with Chen? Beats me. They could simply release him. I’d recommend taking Chen into Spring Training and seeing whether he can help in some capacity, even as a mop-up guy, then making a decision at the end of camp. Again, the $40-something-million is a sunk cost. The Yankees have to pay it no matter what, and, right now, they’re paying it to Ellsbury to do nothing. Maybe they can instead pay it to Chen to soak up low-leverage innings. The primary objective here is the luxury tax savings. Anything Chen gives them is a bonus.

4. Why would Ellsbury agree to this? Ellsbury’s contract includes a full no-trade clause. Even if it didn’t, he’s been with the Yankees long enough now to pick up five-and-ten rights, which is kinda crazy. Why would Ellsbury go to the Marlins? There is only one good reason: Because they’ll release him. That’s the condition of the trade. The Marlins have to release Ellsbury immediately after the deal.

It sounds crazy, I know, but it is not unprecedented. Remember the big Dodgers-Braves salary shuffle deal that sent Matt Kemp back to Los Angeles last offseason? Adrian Gonzalez was in that trade and Atlanta had to release him as the condition to get him to waive his no-trade clause. Gonzalez got to keep every penny in his contract and pick his next team, who he could sign with at the pro-rated minimum. Once the Marlins release Ellsbury, he’d still get every penny, he’d get to pick his next team, and it wouldn’t cost anyone anything substantial to sign him. For Ellsbury, that would presumably be preferable to sticking with the Yankees, who don’t seem to have a place for him.

* * *

Over the next two years the Marlins owe Chen $42M and the Yankees owe Ellsbury $47.28M. There’s no getting out of that money. So, to make the best of a bad situation, the two teams could swap those contracts and figure out what to do with the $5.28M difference. Shouldn’t be hard. The Yankees would get a lower luxury tax hit and the Marlins would add a pitcher in his mid-20s with a chance to help long-term. And if he doesn’t, so be it. But at least they get to try.

A win-win? Well, I wouldn’t go that far. This is more like two teams making the best of a bad situation. They’re both stuck paying an unproductive veteran $40-something-million in real dollars the next two years. The Yankees and Marlins can either stick with their current situation, or work with each other to make things a little more palatable. To me, it seems better than staying with the status quo.

Yankeemetrics: One up, one down in Miami (Aug. 21-22)

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(AP)

The Higgy and Miggy Show
The Yankees survived a bizarre game on Tuesday, somehow pulling out a 2-1, 12-inning victory in a game that neither team seemed interested in winning. The Marlins and Yankees combined to go 1-for-20 with runners in scoring position, and fittingly, the winning run was scored on an out.

The Yankees improved to 19-12 in games decided by one run, surpassing their win total from last year (18-26). They also improved to 7-5 in extra-inning contests; the last time they had a winning record in extras while playing at least 10 games was 2009 (7-3).

Masahiro Tanaka tossed six solid innings and his only mistake was a splitter he left up in the zone that Austin Dean clobbered for his second career home run. That was only extra-base hit and run Tanaka allowed, who has been pitching like an ace over the last two-plus months. Since June 8, he has a 2.75 ERA in nine starts, the best in the rotation and a top-20 mark among MLB starters in that span.

The game-winning RBI was — unsurprisingly — delivered by Miguel Andujar, who clubbed an elevated four-seamer deep enough into the outfield for — yet another non-shocker — a bases-loaded sac fly. These tweets below need no introduction:

And because we can never give enough fun facts about Mr. Andujar, here’s one that earns our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: Since sacrifice flies were first recorded in 1954, Andujar is the only Yankee to hit a go-ahead bases-loaded sac fly in the 12th inning or later on the road. Congrats, more history!

Miggy was only able to be the hero because of two outstanding late-game Houdini performances with the winning run 90 feet away. Chad Green put runners on the corners with no outs in the ninth, and escaped without allowing a run; A.J. Cole loaded the bases with no outs in the 11th, and escaped without allowing a run. Yup, teams usually plate at least one run most of the time in those situations:

Situation At least 1 Run Scored Avg Runs Scored
1st and 3rd, 0 outs 84.6% 1.7
Bases Loaded, 0 outs 83.6% 2.3

Finally, we get to most unlikely part of the game, the ending: with Tommy Kahnle going for the save, Kyle Higashioka nailed Isaac Galloway trying to swipe second base for the final out. Consider that before Tuesday …

  • Higashioka had only one caught stealing (out of 16 total attempts) in his career
  • Kahnle had been on the mound for 14 stolen base attempts in his career, and only once had a guy been thrown out

Oh, and the last time the Yankees won a game on a caught stealing as the final out, this happened (September 13, 2011 vs Mariners):

The end of Lynn-sanity
The Yankees four-game win streak was snapped in ugly fashion against the Marlins on Wednesday night. They jumped out to a 2-0 lead but somehow ended up on the wrong side of a lopsided 9-3 score, falling to a last-place team on pace for 97 losses. The Yankees split their four games with the Marlins this season; they outscored them 14-2 in the two wins and were outscored 18-4 in the two losses.

(AP)

Lance Lynn held the Marlins scoreless through the first five frames but then imploded in the sixth, coughing up five runs on five hits in the frame before getting pulled. This was Lynn’s eighth start with five-plus runs allowed this season, tied for the third-most in the majors; only Dylan Bundy (9) and Danny Duffy (10) have more. His 104th pitch of the night was a game-changing three-run dinger that turned a 2-1 Yankees lead into a 4-2 deficit, the first home run he gave up as a Yankee.

Lynn was a pinstriped hero after his first three games with the team, but his last two starts have been … well, it’s not what you want:

Lance Lynn as a Yankee
IP Runs WHIP
Last 2 Games 9.1 10 2.04
First 3 Games 16.2 1 0.96

Neil Walker drove in two of the three runs and added to our favorite underrated stat of the season when he hit a bases-loaded sac fly in the sixth. It was the Yankees MLB-leading 48th sac fly of the season, putting them on pace for 61. That would be the sixth-most in a single season in franchise history (sac flies became an official stat in 1954) and the most since 1997 (70).