River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » Manny Machado

Repeating past mistakes have come back to haunt the Yankees

by

(Presswire)

It took six games for Troy Tulowitzki to wind up on the injured list. Banking on him to be the stopgap shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery was a high risk decision from the get go, and it’s already come back to bite the Yankees. I feel bad for Tulowitzki; his return could have been a feel-good story this season (and maybe still could). For a team in contention, it was never a good idea to count a player absent from the majors since 2017. It doesn’t matter how he looked in his offseason workouts.

Gambling on Tulowitzki was a move straight out of the 2013 and 2014 playbook. Those were highly forgettable Yankees teams that somehow finished above .500 while missing the playoffs. The likes of Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Brian Roberts, Kevin Youkilis, and Ichiro Suzuki were counted on as regulars. All of those players were either past their primes, injury prone, or both. Tulowitzki fits that mold.

Some of the aforementioned players actually got off to good starts in pinstripes. I recall Hafner and Wells raking early on. Pronk had a 198 wRC+ in the first month of 2013. Wells posted a 150 wRC+ during the same period. Things went (steeply) downhill from there. Others like Youkilis and Roberts never contributed much at all, and didn’t even last on the roster all season. Ichiro hit well when he was acquired in 2012, but was surprisingly signed a two-year deal thereafter.

Tulowitzki never really got a chance to show any semblance of his old self. Maybe he’ll be back much sooner than we anticipate, but it’s easy to be skeptical of his belief that it’s a relatively minor calf injury. At this point, as Mike noted, the Yankees have exhausted just about all of their depth, so they actually need him back. And that gets us back to the point: it’s a problem that the Yankees relied on Tulowitzki to be their starting shortstop.

DJ LeMahieu was ostensibly the contingency plan for Tulowitzki. It’s not that he’s a bad fallback, but rather, the issue is that it forces Gleyber Torres to spend less time learning a fairly new position, second base. Torres is capable of playing short, but if the Yankees have any intention of retaining Didi Gregorius, it would make sense to give Torres as many reps at the keystone as possible. That means having a more tenable shortstop during Gregorius’s absence would have been ideal.

This injury serves as yet another reminder that the Yankees passed on Manny Machado this past winter. I know, I know, you’re all tired of hearing about that. I’d rather not discuss it either. But what choice do we have? Sure, Machado could have become another one of the team’s walking wounded. However, that would have came as a surprise, unlike Tulowitzki.

It’s a rare opportunity to acquire a young superstar in the prime of their career for only money. The team could regret the decision for years to come. You think they regret letting Robinson Cano walk in favor of Brian Roberts? There were some dark years before the team finally found Starlin Castro and ultimately Gleyber. And sure, you can say that the Yankees had better internal options now as compared to Cano’s walk year, with Andujar and Gregorius on the left side of the infield. But who knows how Gregorius, and now Andujar, return from their injuries. It’s better to acquire as much high floor talent as possible and sort things out later if everyone is healthy at the same time. Instead, the Yankees went for the cheap low floor option with a low probability of significant contribution.

Devil’s Advocate: The Yankees were smart to pass on Manny Machado and Bryce Harper

by

(Presswire)

Let me preface this by saying I think the Yankees made a mistake not signing Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper. Star-caliber players in their mid-20s are among the most valuable commodities in the sport and they are damn near impossible to acquire. Here were two available for cash, and the Yankees passed despite having a cheap homegrown core and resetting their luxury tax rate last year.

Scott Boras, Harper’s agent, told Ken Davidoff the Yankees were “really never a thought because we knew going in, because of the structure of the game, only certain houses were to be looked at as far as potentials,” whatever that means. In recent days both Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone gave a flat “no” response when asked whether Harper was ever a real possibility for the Yankees. From David Lennon:

“I’m closing the chapter on these questions about high-end free agency in the winter,” Cashman said before Sunday’s game at Steinbrenner Field. “I feel like we’ve vetted that enough. Sorry. I’d rather focus on the here and now, and the real rather than the unreal.”

…

“We’re obviously up and running with what we’ve got,” Cashman said. “We’re excited about what we got, and how a lot of it looks like now, and hoping that’s enough. But you’re always looking to improve over the course of time, if it’s within certain parameters on both ends. So, obviously between now and Aug. 31, we’ll continue to evaluate all opportunities.”

The Yankees are going to win a lot of games — a lot of games — this season and in future seasons as well. They’re loaded with talent and their best players are all either in their prime or approaching it. I still believe passing on Machado and Harper was a mistake, and not a small one either. There is always room for improvement and both guys would’ve easily fit into the lineup. This past offseason will be relitigated many times in the future. Get ready for it.

Anyway, because this is a full service blog and I try to present #bothsides whenever possible, I figured it was time to explore why the Yankees were smart to pass on Machado and Harper. Some reasons are more believable than others, but hey, they are all potential reasons. Here’s why the Yankees were smart to not sign two 26-year-old superstars and make themselves the clear-cut best team in baseball.

1. Harper’s contact rate is trending down. His contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is trending down, specifically. Hitters all around baseball are making less and less contact because the pitching is so good, but, in Harper’s case, he has swung through a ton of pitches out over the plate over the last year and change. I mean, look:

Harper’s raw power is thunderous. He can hit the ball as far as anyone in baseball. But, over the last year, year and a half, he is missing the pitches he should be clobbering more and more often. Harper’s plate discipline is exceptional. The guy has a 17.4% walk rate the last four years. (Aaron Judge has a 17.2% walk rate the last two years, for comparison.) He gets himself into good hitter’s counts. He just isn’t capitalizing as much as he should be.

To be fair to Harper, the league average contact rate on pitches in the zone has gone from 87.1% in 2015 to 85.6% in 2018. Like I said, pitching is ridiculously good right now. Harper’s in-zone contact rate sat at 78.0% last year. That ranked 137th among the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Hmmm.

2. Machado is sort of a jerk. Machado’s comments about not being “Johnny Hustle” and running out grounders not being “my cup of tea” got a lot of play over the winter and I totally get it. Jogging out routine ground balls doesn’t bother me much though. Yes, it would be nice to see Machado and every other player run out every grounder (especially in the postseason!), but it’s just not going to happen.

The hustle comments overshadowed some dirty at best and intentionally dangerous at worst plays last postseason. Most notably, Machado straight up kicked Jesus Aguilar in the ankle at first base during the NLCS. You’ve seen this by now:

I don’t know how anyone could watch that and see it as anything other than an intent to injure. Machado didn’t take a misstep and the throw didn’t take Aguilar into Machado’s path. He went out of his way to kick him as he ran through first base. That is dirty as hell. I reckon something like that would’ve earned Machado a fastball to the ribs had it happened during the regular season. We’ll see what happens when the Padres play the Brewers this year.

Everyone has a bad day now and then, but, in Machado’s case, it’s impossible to dismiss this as a bad day given his history. He tried to throw a bat at a pitcher. He got into it with Josh Donaldson. He spiked Dustin Pedroia. I honestly believe the Pedroia thing was an accident. Machado hit the bag hard and his foot popped up, and Pedroia’s calf was in the wrong place at the wrong time. That said, Manny hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt.

The Yankees go to great lengths to ensure they have a good clubhouse culture — to be fair to Machado, has anyone ever said he’s a bad teammate? (quite the opposite, in fact) — and even if Machado were a model citizen with the Yankees, his reputation is established and it will follow him. He would be asked about it, his teammates would be asked about it, Boone and the coaches would be asked about it. Even on his best behavior, Machado would be a distraction.

3. Harper is falling victim to the shift. Remember how frustrating it was to watch Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann pulled grounder after grounder into the shift all those years? Harper is not quite at that level yet, but he is seeing more and more shifts with each passing year. The numbers:

  • 2015: 19.3% plate appearances with the shift
  • 2016: 36.5%
  • 2017: 38.8%
  • 2018: 41.4%

I guess teams finally started to pay attention after Harper’s historically great MVP season in 2015. Over the last three seasons Harper has an 82 wRC+ with the shift. That is: bad. He is seeing the shift more and more often with each passing season and, well, you do the math. Harper had a sub-.250 batting average in two of the last three seasons (.243 in 2016 and .249 in 2018) and the shift is a major reason why. Unless baseball outlaws the shift, which is certainly possible, Harper is only going to see it more often going forward.

4. Machado’s on-base skills aren’t elite. The power and contact ability are certainly elite, few players strike out as little as Machado while hitting for that much power, but the on-base percentage leaves you wanting more. Since breaking out as a bona fide star four years ago, Machado’s posted a .345 OBP in over 2,800 plate appearances, and his career high is a .367 OBP last year. Manny isn’t shy about chasing pitches out of the zone:

The okay but not great plate discipline — Machado is not an extreme hacker, but he isn’t up there looking to walk — is a reason why, despite the contact ability and 142 homers the last four years, Machado’s very best offensive season (141 wRC+ in 2018) is only roughly as good as Giancarlo Stanton’s average season (142 wRC+). Simply put, a player who doesn’t walk much has less margin for the error. If the batting average isn’t there, the offensive value can plummet quick. (That applies to Miguel Andujar, it should be noted.)

5. Both have injury histories. The best predictor of future injury is past injury and both Harper and Machado have an injury history. In Machado’s case, he had surgery on both knees in the span of a few months back in 2013-14. They were non-contact injuries — he hurt his right knee running through first base and his left knee taking a swing — that required a lengthy rehab. To Machado’s credit, he’s played in 637 of 648 possible games the last four years, so the knees have given him no trouble since. Still, two knee surgeries is bad news.

As for Harper, his injury history is more diverse and the injuries have typically been the result of aggressive play. He banged up his knee crashing into the wall in 2013 and played hurt throughout the second half. He tore ligaments in his thumb on an aggressive slide and required surgery in 2014. In 2017 he slipped on a wet base and hyperextended his knee. I remember watching the play live and thinking his knee was destroyed. Somehow he escaped with no fracture or ligament damage. Crazy. Harper has missed 140 games the last five years, roughly a full season’s worth.

Machado’s knees are kinda scary — how much longer does he have at third base (or shortstop) before his legs send him to a less demanding position? — and, in Harper’s case, he played a cautious outfield last year, likely out of self-preservation. There were no dives or crashing into the wall. On one hand, he stayed healthy, and that’s good. On the other, his defensive numbers went in the tank. Point is, we’re talking about very long-term contracts and players with injury histories that can’t be ignored.

6. The Yankees do have a budget. Joel Sherman recently reported Hal Steinbrenner set a $220M or so luxury tax payroll limit for Opening Day. Complain about that number all you want — and believe me, I do (why has payroll not increased at all in nearly ten years? am I really supposed to believe operating costs have climbed to the point where they cancel out all the additional revenue?) — but the fact of the matter is Cashman and his baseball operations folks had to operate around that budget.

Cot’s has the 2019 payroll at $222.4M for luxury tax purposes at the moment. We could play the “don’t sign Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu, and Adam Ottavino and they could’ve afforded Harper at his luxury tax number instead!” game until we’re blue in the face, but that leaves the Yankees short an infielder and a reliever. No Gardner, no LeMahieu, and no Zack Britton is enough to afford Machado, but again, it leaves roster holes elsewhere. Dollars and roster spots are not unlimited resources, and the Yankees opted to use their money to upgrade as many roster spots as possible rather than land that one big fish. The 2013 Red Sox won a World Series that way.

Also, this applies long-term as well. The Yankees will have to pay Aaron Judge enormous arbitration raises starting next year. Keeping Aaron Hicks long-term was a priority. Locking up Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances is presumably next on the agenda. I don’t know how we went from “young players are cheap, allowing teams to surround them with free agents” to “young players are cheap, but they’ll be expensive eventually so you can’t sign anyone,” but we have. Bottom line: Every dollar the Yankees had given Machado or Harper is a dollar they couldn’t give someone else.

7. The Yankees know what they’re doing. Cashman and his staff have earned the benefit of the doubt. The Yankees are healthier as an organization now than they have been in years, probably since the late-1990s. The farm system is immensely productive and slam dunk trade wins like Hicks and Gregorius are the norm. I mean, seriously, when’s the last time the Yankees traded away a player they truly miss? I can’t remember. The baseball operations folks have more information than us and they’re much smarter than us, and they opted to pass on Machado and Harper.

* * *

Like I said earlier, I think the Yankees made a mistake passing on Machado and Harper. Even with the warts, they are insanely productive and only now entering what should be the prime of their careers, which aligns perfectly with the team’s championship window. The Yankees should always and forever be in on players like this. What I think doesn’t matter though. The Yankees have a budget, and squint your eyes and you can find red flags with Harper and Machado. Also, the Yankees are pretty good at this team-building thing, and they deserve the benefit of the doubt. Hopefully passing on these two is not something they come to regret.

How recent history led the Yankees to avoid Bryce Harper and Manny Machado

by

(Patrick Semansky/AP)

Like it or not, the Yankees spent modestly this winter.

While two big fish sat in free agency, the Bombers instead looked for lesser improvements. Still, the Yankees came away with arguably the best starter and reliever who changed teams this offseason while retaining three pitchers, Brett Gardner and adding two infielders.

For many fans and observers, that offseason wasn’t enough. The Yankees, after all, are the richest team in baseball and could have easily made room for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. You can just imagine what either hitter would look like next to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. The common complaint was that if you’re not going to spend on either Harper or Machado, why did the team get under the luxury tax?

However, when one looks back at the last time the Yankees spent big in free agency, there was a much more pressing need. Let’s take a look back at the 2013-14 offseason for a second.

The 2013 Yankees were as much of a disaster as an 85-win team can be, at least in New York. Injuries ran roughshod through the roster, claiming Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Michael Pineda. The big money starter, CC Sabathia, sported a 4.78 ERA and was well-below league-average.

To summarize how bad it got, look at the team’s Baseball Reference page. Chris Stewart, Jayson Nix, late-career Vernon Wells and Ichiro Suzuki to go with 36-year-old Lyle Overbay and Travis Hafner each played in more than half the Yankees’ games. Yikes.

The team was set to get worse in the offseason. Alex Rodriguez was suspended for all of the 2014 season, giving New York more spending flexibility but one fewer big bat. Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte were retiring and Robinson Cano, one of just two above-average regulars, left for the greener pastures (at least in terms of dollars) of Seattle. There was no Judge or Luis Severino coming through the Minors to save the day.

This was also right at the time of the Yankees’ first attempt to evade the luxury tax in what was known as Plan 189 around these parts. The Steinbrenners were faced with the choice of getting under the tax and abandoning a realistic playoff chase or spending their way to a competitive-looking roster. This was before Brian Cashman was able to convince ownership to sell off parts and said owners chose to remain competitive.

Thus, the team went hard, eschewing Cano and signing Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann early in free agency. With a clear need still present in the rotation, Cashman got sign-off to pursue Masahiro Tanaka and acquired the righty in January 2014.

It’s easy to say that this was short-sighted with the aging roster and Ellsbury’s onerous contract. However, while one can question the methods, the intent was clear.

Back to the present day, the roster has shed the ancient appearance for a youthful glee as the Yankees returned to prominence. That ultimately was a large part of the plan after the 2016 trade deadline, turning to a young, sustainable core.

However, this core arrived well ahead of schedule. Just think back to Spring Training 2017. Aarons Judge and Hicks had combined for -0.7 WAR the prior season while Severino failed in his first go-around as a starter. The team traded two of its most prolific hitters, Beltran and McCann, as “transition” hung in the air as the buzzword. In other words, expect a worse product in the short term.

From there, Hicks, Judge and Severino turned into All-Star caliber players while Stanton fell into the Yankees’ laps. The team has won 191 games over the last two years and made it within a game of the World Series. Not a championship, but certainly poised to reach that height.

Looking at it from ownership’s perspective, the team has the infield set for years behind Miguel Andujar, Didi Gregorius and Gleyber Torres. The outfield has Hicks, Judge and Stanton while Brett Gardner and Troy Tulowitzki serve as stopgaps for Gregorius and Clint Frazier. The Bombers are already on the cusp of the World Series.

So Yankees chose to leave very good alone instead of go for standout greatness as no team pushed their postseason spot. Likely, if Judge, Sevy and others don’t turn into stars right away and reach the ALCS in 2017 — if 2018 looks more like 2013 than 2017 — the front office views Harper or Machado (or both) as necessities rather than luxuries.

The media has occasionally pointed to Ellsbury’s contract as a reason the Yankees or other teams would be hesitant to give out big contracts, but that simply doesn’t apply to the Bombers. This is the team that traded for A-Rod and Stanton’s record deals while giving Rodriguez and Sabathia top-of-the-market contracts, all while giving long-term deals to Jeter, Teixeira and so on. They’ve stomached bad deals and they’ve thrived with great ones.

The team now turns to its in-house options as well as their fine additions with Paxton and Ottavino. The team relies heavily upon Didi’s recovery, avoiding regression from Andujar and a five-man rotation with plenty of injury risk. Still, the talent and promise in the Bronx is palpable even without Machado and Harper.

Whether they regret that comfortable feeling of having essentially reached the postseason in March will play out as it may, but it’s hard to deny that compared to 2013-14, or even 2008-09, there wasn’t the pressing need. Harper or Machado wouldn’t have guaranteed the Yankees would surpass Boston or Houston and ultimately, that opportunity cost spelled the difference between either player donning pinstripes and our2 current reality.

Friday Links: Machado, Moustakas, Pitch Clock, London Series

by

Manny heading to the Left Coast. (Harry How/Getty)

The first Grapefruit League game is less than 24 hours away. Thank goodness for that. As for the Yankees making further additions, it’s possible, but don’t expect anything big. “We’ve been offering (minor league contracts) out like Chiclets,” Brian Cashman told Joel Sherman. How exciting. Anyway, here are some notes.

Yankees would’ve gone to $240M for Machado?

The Yankees never did make Manny Machado a formal offer before he signed with the Padres, but, according to Jon Heyman, during their December meeting the Yankees indicated they were willing to offer him $220M to $240M. A lowball offer, clearly. They wanted Machado on their terms and at a discount or not at all. My guess is that $220M to $240M would’ve been spread across eight years rather than ten, and included opt-outs and all that good stuff.

Bryce Harper signing a short-term contract never seemed all that likely and the Machado contract all but guarantees it won’t happen. I have to think Harper and Scott Boras are licked their chops in anticipation of negotiating with the desperate as hell Phillies. I know it’s not going to happen but dammit I can’t help but hold out hope the Yankees are laying in the weeds here ready to swoop in a la Mark Teixeira years ago. Would be cool. Oh well. Maybe the Yankees will sign a 26-year-old superstar next offseason.

Yankees “briefly” considered Moustakas

According to Andy Martino, the Yankees only “briefly” considered making a run at Mike Moustakas earlier this offseason. Moustakas returned to the Brewers on a one-year deal worth $10M guaranteed earlier this week. The Yankees had interest in Moustakas as a first baseman at the trade deadline last year, before he went to the Brewers and before they acquired Luke Voit. Can’t get mad about how that series of events turned out.

Moustakas, 30, hit .251/.315/.459 (105 wRC+) with 28 home runs last season. He’s a lefty with a tendency to pull the ball in the air, so he would’ve fit nicely in Yankee Stadium. The Brewers are apparently going to play Moustakas at second base. The Yankees could’ve done that and shifted Gleyber Torres to short. Or they could’ve just put Moustakas at third base, moved Miguel Andujar to DH, and put Giancarlo Stanton in left field. Eh, whatever.

Pitch clock coming to Spring Training

You will see a pitch clock when the Yankees open their spring schedule tomorrow. Earlier this week commissioner Rob Manfred told Mike Fitzpatrick a 20-second pitch clock will be used during Cactus League and Grapefruit League games. No decision has been made about the regular season yet. Manfred and MLB want to give players and umpires a chance to get used to the pitch clock just case it is used during the regular season, so we’ll see it this spring. There will be warnings at first before ball-strike penalties take effect depending whether the pitcher or hitter is late.

“We’re still hopeful that we’re going to make an agreement with (the MLBPA) on pace-of-play initiatives. I just think that whether it’s by agreement or otherwise, the only prudent course for us at this point is to be in a position to proceed if in fact we have an agreement or decide to do it,” said Manfred. Manfred can unilaterally implement a 20-second pitch clock this year and it sounds like he will do exactly that if MLB and the MLBPA are unable to agree to a new set of pace-of-play rules. I am pro-pitch clock. Let’s do this. You won’t even notice it’s there in a few weeks.

MLB cracking down on high-tech sign-stealing

As expected, MLB is cracking down on high-tech sign-stealing following incidents in the postseason last year, reports Tom Verducci. An Astros employee was caught recording the Indians dugout during the ALDS last year, though the employee claimed he was monitoring Cleveland to make sure they weren’t stealing signs, and was later cleared by MLB following an investigation. There was also the Apple watch incident with the Red Sox two years ago.

According to Verducci, teams are now banned from using non-broadcast cameras from foul pole to foul pole in the outfield, and there are tighter restrictions on in-house video. Specifically, dugout and clubhouse monitors will be on an eight-second delay, and a designated official will monitor communication between the video replay room and the dugout. Penalties include loss of draft picks and international bonus money. There are no rules against stealing signs! MLB just doesn’t want teams using high-tech gadgets to do it. Given how much technology is in the game today, this was an inevitable and necessary step.

Yankees, Red Sox will wear home uniforms in London

The Yankees and Red Sox will both wear their home uniforms during the London Series later this summer, reports Pete Abraham. The Red Sox will be the home team for the two games but the Yankees will be out there in pinstripes. Why? Marketing. Can’t send your marquee franchise overseas in an effort to grow the game and not have them wear their iconic uniform, you know? Imagine sending the Yankees overseas and making them wear their road grays. Good grief. Anyway, the London Series will be played at London Stadium on June 29th and 30th.

Reports: Manny Machado agrees to deal with Padres

by

(Tom Pennington/Getty)

The Manny Machado free agency saga is finally over. According to multiple reports Machado has agreed to a massive ten-year, $300M contract with the San Diego Padres. Yes, the Padres. Allow me to toot my own horn and point out I called the Padres as a sleeper team on Machado over a month ago, before they reportedly got involved in the bidding. Go me.

Machado’s new contract includes an opt-out after the fifth year, which surprises me. I thought his side would push for an opt-out after the third year, which would allow him to reenter free agency at age 29, and also right as the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires and things (maybe) get better for free agents. Maybe Machado’s camp tried but the Padres wouldn’t budge. Whatever.

At $300M, this is the second largest contract in baseball history behind Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325M deal. It’s also the largest free agent contract in North American sports history (Stanton’s deal was an extension during his arbitration years). The Padres gave out the richest free agent contract last winter (Eric Hosmer), remember. Don’t ever let teams trick you into believing they don’t have money.

San Diego appears to be an odd destination for Machado, and it is, but money talks. Also, the Padres have a monster farm system. Best in baseball in my book. Their best prospects, like Luis Urias and Francisco Mejia, started to arrive last year, and others like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack could arrive this year. You can see the foundation of a contending roster forming, and since Machado is only 26, he fits right in with the youth movement.

With Machado off the board Bryce Harper becomes the undisputed top free agent available, and I imagine the Phillies and White Sox will ramp up their efforts to sign him. At least one of those two clubs is going to walk away empty-handed. The Giants have been connected to Harper in recent weeks and I wouldn’t rule out the Nationals either. I reckon Machado’s contract record won’t last long.

As for the Yankees, they only half-heartedly pursued Machado this winter. They met with him at Yankee Stadium in December and, according to James Wagner and Jack Curry, they never made him an offer after that, and “strong voices” in the organization were against signing him. The Yankees have barely been connected to Harper this offseason. I suppose they could swoop in to sign him, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

The Yankees will see Machado and Padres during interleague play this year. The Padres are scheduled to visit Yankee Stadium for a three-year series from May 27th to 29th. The Yankees are not going to San Diego this season, however.

Eight storylines to follow as the Yankees begin Spring Training

by

(Presswire)

Pitchers and catchers reported to Tampa yesterday and it didn’t take long for the Yankees to suffer their first injury of the spring. Pitching prospect Mike King will miss at least three weeks with an elbow issue. Baseball always has a way of keeping you humble. Excited Spring Training has started? Well you won’t be seeing this pitching prospect this spring, sorry. So it goes.

Position players report Monday and the Yankees open their Grapefruit League season next Saturday. These next ten days are a grind. Baseball is happening and not happening at the same time. We waited all winter for Spring Training to begin and now we have to wait a little longer for actual baseball games, and even then the games are meaningless. It’s baseball though, and baseball is better than no baseball.

Now that Spring Training has opened, this is a good time to break down some key Yankees storylines for the coming weeks. Players to watch, trends to track, that sorta thing. Here are eight storylines to watch this spring, listed in no particular order.

Seriously, what about Harper and Machado?

Look, I’m as sick of writing about them as you are of hearing about them, but as long as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remain unsigned, we have to talk about them. The stunningly stupid prevailing logic says MLB teams all have smart front offices now and they’ve realized paying top dollar for aging past prime players elite prime-aged talent is a bad idea. Did you know ten teams have a sub-$100M payroll? In 2019? Crazy.

Anyway, the Yankees only half-heartedly pursued Machado over the winter and they weren’t connected to Harper at all. “I’m surprised you’re still asking,” said Brian Cashman when asked about possibly signing Harper during the Winter Meetings. The thing is, the longer those two sit in free agency, the greater the chances the Yankees swoop in to sign one of ’em. The temptation has to be there, and, at this point, I have to think a discount is possible.

It feels like everyone I talk to wants Machado and Harper to sign just to get it over with already. We’re sick of hearing about them and, frankly, it’s embarrassing for baseball that these two are unemployed as camp opens. It looks bad. Hopefully the Yankees can sign either Machado or Harper. That would be preferable but weeks ago I accepted they’re probably going elsewhere. Until they sign though, their situation has to be monitored.

Tulowitzki’s comeback attempt

The Good: Troy Tulowitzki has fully recovered from last year’s dual heel surgeries and is as healthy as he’s been at any point in the last couple years, plus he is basically free, so the Yankees could easily cut him loose should he not get the job done. The Bad: The Yankees seem very committed to Tulowitzki as their starting shortstop and I’m not sure they would cut him loose even if his production warrants it.

“The plan right now is to get Troy ready to play shortstop. That’s where he’ll focus,” Aaron Boone said yesterday. “As the weeks — as the months — unfold we’ll adjust if we need to. We’re planning on him playing shortstop and focusing solely there.”

“We were all in. He really looked athletic (during his workout), it looked like he had that bounce back in his step. We feel there is a lot of potential upside here,” said Cashman last month. I totally get rolling the dice on Tulowitzki. It’s a low-risk contract and, as a former star caliber player, there’s always a chance he has a late-career dead cat bounce season. Think Eric Chavez in 2012. He’s worth a look with Didi Gregorius out.

Tulowitzki has not played since July 2017 and you kinda have to expect some rust after that. He has been working out all winter — Tulowitzki has been in Tampa working out at the minor league complex for a few days now even though position players aren’t due to report until Monday — but there’s no substitute for game action. Those first few live pitches and ground balls might speed up on him a little bit, you know?

Spring Training performance is not very predictive and that will be especially true in Tulowitzki’s case. Certainly it would be great to see him knock the snot out of the ball and vacuum up everything at shortstop for a few weeks. Even then, we won’t know how long it’ll last because he’s had so many injury problems throughout his career. For all intents and purposes, we’re going into camp with no idea what to expect from Tulowitzki. We’ll learn as we go.

Andujar’s defense

“Entirely at third,” Boone came out and said yesterday when asked where Miguel Andujar will play going forward. “That said, there may be a day or two that we pick to have him on a back field just getting some first base in — which we may do with a (Austin) Romine or a Gary (Sanchez) — pick a day just to keep some versatile options when you get into a little bit of a bind. His game work will be, I’ll say pretty much entirely at third base.”

Last season Andujar was the worst defensive third baseman in baseball (according to DRS) and the Yankees sent him into the offseason with a plan to improve what he does before the pitch is thrown. They want him to get in better position to react and make plays, basically. Andujar’s hands and throwing arm are pretty good! There are times he stumbles over his own feet though, and he rushes his throws because he double-clutches so often.

I have no illusions of Andujar becoming an above-average defender. He is a tireless worker and I don’t doubt that he’ll try to improve. It’s just that going from that bad to that good is unlikely. Has anyone else done it? Gone from being one of the worst defenders in baseball, statistically, to being legitimately above-average? I can’t think of anyone. My hopes are modest. Andujar becomes an average defender who makes routine plays look routine. That’s all I’m asking.

I think two things will happen this spring: One, any Andujar misplay will be magnified, and two, he’ll look better than expected at third base because we’ve kinda lost perspective about him as a defender after spending all winter talking about how bad he defensively. Pre-pitch setup is not something we’ll be able to evaluate in Spring Training. At least not on television. Clearly though, Andujar’s defense is something to monitor throughout camp.

“I feel like he’s in a really good place defensively,” Boone added. “There’s some things that we’ve had him work on defensively that I think have really taken hold with him. And I think he’s had a great winter of work — I think all of you that have been around and have seen the work ethic, that’s reared its head in the winter — I feel that he’s another guy that comes into Spring Training in a really good place.”

Sabathia’s farewell

(Presswire)

On Saturday, CC Sabathia will make official what we’ve known for a long time now: 2019 will be his final season. Sabathia will hold a press conference (with his family in attendance) to formally announce his retirement, and mostly take questions because no one has had a chance to ask him about it. Man I hope he doesn’t cry during the press conference. Not sure I could handle seeing the big guy in tears.

Once the press conference is over with, it’ll be time to get down to business. Sabathia had his usual offseason knee cleanup procedure and also heart surgery in December, and Boone said yesterday the Yankees will take it slow with Sabathia early in camp. So much so that his first bullpen session could be a few weeks away, which would seem to put his Opening Day roster status in question.

Sabathia is fine, physically. It’s just that the heart procedure interrupted his offseason work and put him behind schedule, and he’s still catching up. The Yankees take it very easy on Sabathia in Spring Training anyway — he usually pitches in simulated games rather than Grapefruit League games — so it’ll be tough to know exactly how far behind schedule he is. He’s a difficult guy to track usually because we rarely see him in games.

If Sabathia has to start the season on the injured list, so be it. Won’t be the only time the Yankees have to use one of their depth starters this year. The larger point is this is it for Sabathia, and maybe Brett Gardner as well, the final two links to the 2009 World Series team. It’s one thing when the veterans assume reduced roles. It’s another when they’re gone and the changing of the guard is complete.

How is the rehab group doing?

The list of rehabbing Yankees is sneaky long. Sabathia did not suffer a baseball injury but he will be playing catch up in Spring Training. Tulowitzki has technically completed his heel surgery rehab but is something of an unknown, physically. Clint Frazier is in a similar spot following his concussion and post-concussion migraines. Here are some of the other rehabbing Yankees and their statuses:

  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery): He won’t report with position players Monday and will instead stay home in Arizona for a few more weeks. Weird, man.
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery): Started a throwing program last week and is a few weeks away from swinging a bat two-handed. The Yankees refuse to give a firm timetable for his return.
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery): No update, probably because he’s not a big name player.
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery): Expected to throw off a mound next month and rejoin the Yankees sometime after the All-Star break.
  • Gary Sanchez (shoulder surgery): He is hitting and catching, and will be held back early in Grapefruit League play. Sanchez will be ready for Opening Day.

We won’t see Gregorius or Montgomery participate in Grapefruit League games at all this spring given where they are in their rehab. The same is probably true with Ellsbury, and Heller as well. We’ll see Sanchez on the field and be able to track his progress ourselves. The other guys? No luck. The Yankees will give us updates when they’re deemed necessary and we’ll continue to guesstimate Sir Didi’s return date and Ellsbury’s future.

“I hate giving a timeline because we’ll let the thing play out,” said Boone when asked about Gregorius yesterday. “I think our original was anywhere from 2-4 months maybe into the season. He certainly seems at least on that pace. He’s in really good shape and progressing the way he should be so we’re optimistic that he’s going to play hopefully a significant amount of the season for us.”

LeMahieu’s transition to utility infielder

It has been nearly five years since DJ LeMahieu played a position other than second base. He played one inning at first base in an emergency situation on June 28th, 2014, and he didn’t even have to make a play. A reliever struck out the side in that inning. LeMahieu has played second base exclusively since that date and that includes Spring Training. The Rockies never worked him out anywhere else.

The Yankees are planning to use LeMahieu as a super utility guy — Boone said yesterday the plan is to give Tulowitzki regular rest in April in an effort to keep him healthy, which equals playing time for LeMahieu — and gosh, that always makes me nervous, moving a full-time player into a part-time role. It sounds great, bringing in a regular for a bench role, but it can be a difficult adjustment.

I have no idea how LeMahieu will handle it offensively. Not only is he leaving Coors Field, but he’s also going not going to get as many at-bats as usual. Defensively, I think he’ll be fine. He’s a legitimate Gold Glove guy at second base. His range, his hands, his arm, and his instincts are all good, so it’s not like the Yankees are asking a guy short on defensive tools to move around. I see four ways for LeMahieu to get playing time:

  • Start at second base on days Tulowitzki sits (with Gleyber Torres at short).
  • Start at first base when Luke Voit sits (or Greg Bird sits, I guess).
  • Replace Andujar in the late innings pretty much every game.
  • Play third whenever Sabathia (and J.A. Happ?) starts to handle all the pulled grounders by righties.

LeMahieu has the tools to play pretty much anywhere on the infield. He just hasn’t played anywhere other than second base in a few years now, so he’s going to spend a lot time working out at first and third bases this spring. Probably more than he does at second. My guess is LeMahieu winds up playing more than expected this season, maybe as many as 500 plate appearances, but this spring will be about adjusted to life as a glorified utility guy.

The few position battles

“Hopefully, if things play out from a health standpoint in Spring Training, there will be very few decisions that we have to make,” said Boone yesterday, and he’s right. At the moment the Yankees are poised to have very few position battles in Spring Training. Two bullpen spots and a bench spot. That’s pretty much it. This is the projected 25-man Opening Day roster right now:

Catcher Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Luke Voit LF Brett Gardner Luis Severino CL Aroldis Chapman
2B Gleyber Torres CF Aaron Hicks James Paxton SU Dellin Betances
SS Troy Tulowitzki RF Aaron Judge Masahiro Tanaka SU Zach Britton
INJURED LIST 3B Miguel Andujar OF Giancarlo Stanton J.A. Happ SU Adam Ottavino
Didi Gregorius CC Sabathia MR Chad Green
Ben Heller BENCH MR Jonathan Holder
Jordan Montgomery C Austin Romine ??? ???
Jacoby Ellsbury IF DJ LeMahieu ???

The rotation order and the batting order will be whatever they end up being. Those are 22 of their 25 Opening Day roster names though. There is one open bench spot and two open bullpen spots. Should Sabathia have to begin the season on the injured list, then there will be a competition for the fifth starter’s spot as well. For all intents and purposes, the Yankees only have to figure out the 23rd, 24th, and 25th men on their roster.

With Ellsbury out of the picture, the final bench spot comes down to Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and Tyler Wade. There’s a small army of relievers up for those bullpen roles. Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Joe Harvey, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley, so on and so forth. Cessa and Kahnle are out of minor league options and that might give them a leg up on the competition — Boone hinted that Cessa is headed for a bullpen role yesterday — but it doesn’t guarantee anything.

Spring Training competitions are kinda weird. First and foremost, spring performance is not very predictive, and yet teams base roster decisions on spring performance all the time. We see it every year. Bird could hit .350/.450/.750 during Grapefruit League play and it wouldn’t tell us a thing about him going forward, but it would probably land him on the Opening Day roster. Hard to ignore numbers like that, you know?

And secondly, Spring Training competitions don’t end on Opening Day. Whoever wins the final bullpen spot better pitch well during the regular season, otherwise the Yanks will swap them out with someone else. Winning a spring position battle is the easy part. Keeping the job is where it gets difficult. The Yankees have a few roster decisions to make in camp. Thankfully nothing major. And it’s entirely possible those roster decisions could be upended a few weeks into the regular season. Such is life.

Farquhar’s comeback attempt

Last, but certainly not least, the Yankees have a feel-good story in camp in Danny Farquhar. I honestly don’t think he has much of a chance to crack the Opening Day roster, but he’s healthy, and that’s all that matters. Farquhar suffered a life-threatening brain hemorrhage last April when a brain aneurysm ruptured. He collapsed in the dugout while with the White Sox and had to be rushed to the hospital, where he remained for three weeks.

Farquhar’s recovery is complete and he will be a fully participant in Spring Training — his first spring bullpen session is scheduled for tomorrow — which is wonderful news. Maybe he won’t make the roster and instead go to Triple-A, or opt out of his contract and sign with a team willing to put him on their Opening Day roster. Either way, I’m glad Farquhar recovered and able to resume his career, and I think it’s pretty cool he’ll do it with the Yankees.

How confident are you that the Yankees will make the postseason?

by

(Rob Carr/Getty)

I’m at 92%. You might be a bit above or a bit below that, depending on how you feel about how the team is constructed. No matter where you are, the important thing is to arrive at a number. Look around the league. What would have to go wrong for the Yankees and right for everyone else for them to miss the postseason? It doesn’t seem too likely.

Would signing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado much improve your confidence of the Yankees making the postseason? Probably not, since it’s high already. I go from 92% to 98% — it would take a whole ton going wrong in the Bronx combined with enough going right in Anaheim, Tampa, or Minnesota to topple the Yankees in this scenario.

Making the playoffs 98 times out of 100 rather than 92 on the surface suggests that signing Harper or Machado might not be the best use of resources. Why take on that level of risk for only a marginal improvement in your chances?

The goal, of course, isn’t simply to make the playoffs. Let’s extend this exercise.

How confident are you that the Yankees will win the AL East? This has value, as we witnessed the last two years in the Wild Card game. It absolutely affects the confidence you’d have in the Yankees progressing to the ALDS, which de facto affects your confidence in them making or winning the World Series.

Right now I’m at 55%. The Red Sox have some holes and probably won’t be as good as they were last year. Maybe 55% is a bit high, maybe it should be 52%, with the Red Sox at 45% and the Rays at 3%. But I’m sticking with 55% for the moment. If they signed Harper or Machado, however, I’d be at 67%. This can make a big difference going forward.

Technical mumbo jumbo
Without walking through all the steps, once I account for my confidence both of them winning the division and making the playoffs I can run them through similar exercises for the playoffs. Quickly: if I have them winning the division 55 times that means I have them winning the Wild Card 37 times. If I’m 65% confident of them winning the WC game (perhaps too confident here), then they win 24 times. That’s 79 times in the ALDS, and at a 60% confidence of winning that they make the ALCS 47 times, and even at 55% confidence they win that they make the World Series just 26 times, and so win 13 times.

After running each scenario through my various confidences in them winning at each stage, this is where I arrive:

 Confidence
Without H/M With H/M
Make postseason 92% 98%
Win AL East 55% 67%
Win AL Pennant 26% 29%
Win World Series 13% 15%

Is shelling out a long-term $300 million contract worth a two-percentage-point increase in their chances of winning the World Series?

Hell yes.

For starters, it’s not just two percentage points this year. Signing one of these free agents will add to the team’s confidence in winning the World Series for years to come. That is, every year for the next — say five, at least — you’ll have more confidence that the Yankees will win the World Series than you would if they don’t sign one of them.

Second, percentage points don’t tell the whole story here. By nature your confidence in any one team winning the World Series won’t be that high. The field is too large and baseball too unpredictable. Increasing a low number by two percentage points, though, can be significant in terms of relative increase. For instance, signing Harper or Machado increases my confidence that they’ll make the postseason by six percentage points, which in this case amounts to 6.5%. Going from 13% to 15% confidence they win the World Series is a 15% increase. That’s pretty significant.

Incidentally, using Cot’s payroll projection of $211,742,500, signing Harper or Machado would likely represent a 15% increase in payroll.

A 15% increase in payroll for a 15% increase in confidence they’ll win the World Series? Seems equitable to me.