Los Angeles Angels Archives - River Avenue Blues

4/22 to 4/25 Series Preview: Los Angeles Angels

April 22, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Let’s hope the west coast is the best coast for the Yankees’ purposes as they begin a nine-game trip in Anaheim.

Their Story So Far

The Angels sit in the cellar of the American League West with a 9-13 record and -11 run differential. Their offense has been sluggish with a slightly below-average wRC+ despite having the literal best player in baseball, Mike Trout. Their pitching staff has been middling to below-average as well, though they’ve outperformed their peripherals.

As a staff, they allow 1.81 homers per nine, fourth-worst in baseball. Their bullpen has actually settled in with the fourth-best ERA in the AL, but their rotation has been a mess due to just about everyone calling the injured list their home, putting together a collective 6.13 ERA.

Injury Report

The Angels have similar injury issues to the Yankees but on the pitching side. Justin Upton (turf toe) is out until June while pitchers Andrew Heaney (elbow), JC Ramirez (Tommy John), Keynan Middleton (Tommy John), Nick Tropeano (shoulder strain) and Tyler Skaggs (ankle sprain) are all out with only Skaggs potentially returning this month.

Their biggest name on the IL is, of course, Shohei Ohtani, both a hitter and a pitcher. He should be back early next month as a hitter only while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Player Spotlight: Mike Trout

If you don’t want to marvel about Mike Trout, skip two paragraphs down. Trout doesn’t have the best wRC+ in baseball, but his 221 mark is right near the top. He tops the American League in fWAR and bWAR, has an unreal .333/.524/.719 batting line and walks more than he strikes out.

In fact, Trout walks in nearly a fourth of his plate appearances, 24.4 percent to be exact. He’s cut down on his stolen base attempts this season — though he is 1-for-1 in steals — while remaining a force in center field. There isn’t a player right now that hits as well as he does, and it’s a credit to the New Jersey product that he maintains his excellence in the field.

Milestone Watch

Albert Pujols is the active leader in home runs, RBI and GIDP, among other categories, and he may move up the all-time RBI list this series. According to Baseball Reference, he is seventh with 1,993 RBI. Lou Gehrig had 1,995 in his career while Barry Bonds is in fifth place with 1,996. The Yankees obviously would like to delay his passing of the Iron Horse or all-time home run champ, but be on the lookout for Pujols this week.

Potential Lineup

The Yankees are starting two lefties this series, so here’s the lineup for LHPs. Kole Calhoun leads off against righties while backup catcher Kevan Smith (126 wRC+) started at DH against LHP Yusei Kikuchi on Saturday. LHB Brian Goodwin (180 wRC+) also gets time in LF against RHPs, as does 2B Tommy La Stella (148 wRC+).

David Fletcher, 2B (.299/.347/.403, 104 wRC+)
Mike Trout, CF (.333/.524/.719, 221 wRC+)
Andrelton Simmons, SS (.273/.281/.398, 81 wRC+)
Albert Pujols, DH (.238/.351/.429, 114 wRC+)
Justin Bour, 1B (.203/.319/.305, 79 wRC+)
Jonathan Lucroy, C (.297/.328/.328, 82 wRC+)
Kole Calhoun, RF (.184/.271/.395, 80 wRC+)
Peter Bourjos, LF (.103/.122/.128, -40 wRC+)
Zack Cozart, 3B (.102/.141/.119, -33 wRC+)

Pitching Matchups

Monday (10:07 PM ET): LHP J.A. Happ (vs. Angels) vs. RHP Matt Harvey (vs. Yankees)

Harvey got a fresh start with the team of his choosing this offseason, but his troubles on the mound followed him across the country. Through four starts, the former ace has allowed 21 runs (20 earned) in 18 2/3 innings. His WHIP is a hair under 2.00 and he’s surrendered four home runs. he hasn’t made it through five innings since his first start.

The former future Yankee averages 94 mph on his fastball, down about two mph from its 2015 peak. His slider, which he throws 30 percent of the time, sits in the mid-to-high 80s with a changeup and curveball mixed in.

If you’re looking for a silver lining for Harvey, his FIP is 5.99, a good 3.65 runs lower than his ERA. Furthermore, he’s had to face the Athletics, Rangers and Brewers thus far, each sporting a much better offense than the one he’ll see tonight.

Tuesday (10:07 PM ET): RHP Domingo German (vs. Angels) vs. RHP Chris Stratton (vs. Yankees)

Stratton hasn’t had a much better go of it than Harvey in his new digs after a few seasons with the Giants. The right-hander has allowed 14 runs over 18 innings in four starts while walking more (13) than he’s struck out (11). Unlike Harvey, his WHIP is exactly 2.00.

Though Stratton had some walk issues in the past, they weren’t this extreme. Either his control is gone or there’s a semi-return to form coming. When the ball has been put in play, he’s been able to avoid hard contact this season, even if that wasn’t the case last year.

The 28-year-old has cut back on his low-90s fastball usage, relying more on his slider and curveball with the Angels. He also uses a changeup, though his high-spin fastball is his calling card.

Wednesday (10:07 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia (vs. Angels) vs. RHP Felix Pena (vs. Yankees)

Pena has been the Angels’ best healthy starter, sporting a 4.15 ERA through four starts, though he’s also only accumulated 17 1/3 innings. His control has been more suspect than last year, leading baseball with three HBPs while his walk rate has climbed by 2.4 percent in a small sample.

He’s actually outperformed his peripherals. He allows plenty of hard contact and has an FIP of 6.21 thanks to more than two homers per nine and just 14 strikeouts this season.

Pena attacks with a low-90s fastball half the time and then uses his low-80s curve another 40 percent of the time, using his changeup the rest of the way.

Thursday (9:07 PM ET) RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. Angels) vs. RHP Trevor Cahill (vs. Yankees)

Cahill finally did it last season: He beat the Yankees. After six disastrous outings previously, he allowed just three runs over five innings to top the Bombers last Labor Day. That lowered his ERA against the Bombers to … 10.09. Yikes.

However, much of his history with the Yankees came against players long gone or off the roster. Luke Voit homered in one of two ABs against him last year while Brett Gardner has reached seven times.

Maybe this Yankee lineup can shake him out of an early-season malaise. Cahill has allowed a league-high eight home runs while otherwise looking like the successful starter from a year ago. Primarily a groundball pitcher, he’s allowed more flyballs than grounders this year. The right-hander has gone to his offspeed stuff more often than ever, using his fastball just 40 percent of the time.

Bullpen Status

Anaheim carries eight relievers with former Indians reliever Cody Allen taking closing duties. Like in Cleveland, he’s been shaky with walks but remains the closer for now. That role could change after he allowed a homer to his only batter Sunday.

The Angels have only righties in their pen. Cam Bedrosian, Hansel Robles, Luis Garcia and Ty Buttrey work in middle relief with Buttrey and Garcia combining to allow just one run in 18 2/3 innings. Noe Ramirez had been going well until allowing four runs in 1 2/3 innings yesterday.

Luke Bard (yes, Daniel’s brother) and Taylor Cole are lower leverage relievers for the club

Keys for the series

Starting off strong

With a full lineup worth of hitters on the injured list, the Yankees are reliant on their starting pitching. Luckily, based on the last week, that is starting to round into shape. They need to stay strong in Angel Stadium and deal with …

Trout

This is obvious, but you can’t let Trout beat you. Add to his league-leading walk total if you must, but don’t let him beat you. Force Simmons, Pujols and Bour to knock you out. This is so much easier said than done.

Health

Can we go one series without another major injury? Is that too much to ask?

Passan: Angels, Mike Trout nearing record $430M extension

March 19, 2019 by Mike

According to Jeff Passan, the Angels and Mike Trout are nearing a record 12-year extension worth $430M. It is ten years and $363.5M on top of the two years and $66.5M remaining on his current contract. This is easily the largest contract in baseball history, breaking Bryce Harper’s record.

Here are the six largest contracts in baseball history:

Mike Trout, Angels: 12 years, $430M
Bryce Harper, Phillies: 13 years, $330M
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: 13 years, $325M
Manny Machado, Padres: 10 years, $300M
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: 10 years, $275M
Nolan Arenado, Rockies: 8 years, $260M

Four of the six were signed within the last month or so, which I’m sure some will say is evidence baseball is just fine economically. In other news, the Yankees signed a league average starter who’s thrown at least 170 innings in eight of the last nine seasons to a minor league contract yesterday.

Trout’s contract reportedly includes no opt-outs and, if it doesn’t include no-trade protection, he’s less than three years away from picking up five-and-ten rights. Who knows how things will play out over the next 12 years. It sure seems like this contract will keep Trout in Anaheim the rest of his career though, and that’s pretty cool.

At age 27, Trout is already a slam dunk Hall of Famer, having hit .317/.416/.573 (172 wRC+) with 240 homers, 189 steals, and +64 WAR in parts of eight big league seasons. Last season was maybe his best ever (.312/.460/.628 and 191 wRC+) and he still has multiple peak years remaining. He is very deserving of this contract.

The Trout extension doesn’t have much impact on the Yankees other than taking away a potential free agent target in two years, so this is a pretty good reminder that you should sign acquire elite talent while you can. I don’t believe the Yankees passed on Harper and Machado now because they wanted Arenado or Trout later. I’m just sayin’.

Yankees lose Parker Bridwell on waivers to the Angels

December 21, 2018 by Mike

So long, Parker Bridwell. It was a good run. The Yankees lost Bridwell on waivers to the Angels earlier today, both teams announced. He was designated for assignment earlier this week to clear a 40-man roster spot for the newly re-signed J.A. Happ.

The Yankees originally claimed Bridwell off waivers from the Angels last month, and now the Angels claimed him back. A reverse Ronald Torreyes, basically. The Yankees lost Torreyes on waivers to the Angels in January 2016 and reclaimed him from the Halos a few days later.

Bridwell, 27, allowed 40 runs in 34.2 innings between Triple-A and the big leagues this past season before needing surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow in June. Coincidentally enough, Bridwell was one of the high spin, high whiff pitchers who made my recent under-the-radar relievers list.

Even with Bridwell gone, the Yankees still have three out-of-options sixth starter/reliever candidates in Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and A.J. Cole. Tommy Kahnle is out of options as well.

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Tulowitzki, Andujar, Loup, Happ

December 20, 2018 by Mike

There are less than two weeks to go in 2018 and the Yankees are still searching for a Didi Gregorius replacement and bullpen help. At least they’ve got their rotation sorted out. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Machado visits Yankees

As expected, Manny Machado visited Yankee Stadium yesterday as part of his free agent tour. Here’s the obligatory scoreboard photoshop. He visited the White Sox on Monday and is visiting the Phillies today. George King and Jon Heyman report Machado met with Randy Levine, Brian Cashman, Aaron Boone, and new special advisor Carlos Beltran — CC Sabathia was also at the ballpark, though he works out there in the offseason, and I’m not sure whether he actually met with Machado — and everyone went out to dinner last night. Same deal as Patrick Corbin a few weeks ago, basically.

The Yankees and Hal Steinbrenner have made a pretty big deal about Machado having to explain his non-hustle comments when they meet face-to-face, so I assume that happened during the 90-minute meeting at Yankee Stadium yesterday. I have no idea what he could’ve said to make everyone happy, but whatever. Machado is certainly familiar with the ballpark from his time as a division rival — he’s the first and still only player to hit a ball into the camera row in center field — so the visit wasn’t so much about touring Yankee Stadium. He knows the park already. The meeting was about both sides getting to know each other in a way they couldn’t as opponents.

Yankees scouted Tulowitzki at workout

The Yankees were among the eleven teams on hand earlier this week to watch Troy Tulowitzki work out in Southern California, reports Tim Brown. Tulowitzki fielded ground balls at shortstop and took batting practice during the workout. “I have no idea (what teams are interested). I don’t control that. My job’s to be accountable, to play the game. Time will tell. Talk is talk,” he said. Tulowitzki hasn’t played since July 2017 due to various injuries.

According to Brown, Tulowitzki said he’s willing to play second or third base, but he has no interest in being a utility guy. He wants to start. The Yankees could offer Tulowitzki a middle infield spot until Gregorius returns — I’d rather put Tulowitzki at second than short at this point of his career — though it’s awfully risky given his injury history and the fact he hasn’t hit at a league average rate since 2016. In a vacuum, signing Tulowitzki makes sense. In reality, it seems the Yankees need more of a sure thing and Tulowitzki needs a stronger playing time guarantee.

Teams convinced Yankees want to trade Andujar

Rival executives are convinced the Yankees want to trade Miguel Andujar this offseason, according to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). The Padres are seen as a potential landing spot. Keep in mind this is a secondhand rumor. Rosenthal’s passing along what he’s heard about the Yankees from other teams, not the Yankees directly. We heard last week the Yankees are open to moving Andujar, though that was as part of the reported J.T. Realmuto-Noah Syndergaard three-team blockbuster.

I am open to trading Andujar in the sense that I am open to trading pretty much any player in the right deal, and for a guy like Miggy, the right deals mean getting an absolute stud in return. Trading Andujar simply because they don’t believe he’ll ever improve defensively would be a mistake. The offensive potential is special. Keep all the young bats. All of ’em. Build around the young bats and spend money on pitching. If you spend money on a pitcher and he breaks, so what? The Yankees print money. Trade a young bat for a pitcher and he breaks, well, you’re not getting that bat back.

Yankees have checked in on Loup

The Yankees have checked in on free agent lefty reliever Aaron Loup, reports Dan Martin. Interestingly enough, Loup was among those high spin, high swing-and-miss rate relievers I identified earlier today, so I guess it makes sense that they checked in on him. Loup owns a career 3.49 ERA (3.49 FIP) with a 21.7% strikeout rate in 322.2 innings, almost all with the Blue Jays. He’s a pure situational reliever who’s been much better against lefties (.278 wOBA) than righties (.329 wOBA).

A few years ago I would’ve been cool with signing Loup as a left-on-left matchup guy. Not so much now though. Lefty specialists are starting to disappear because using a precious roster spot on a player with such limited utility doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Starting pitchers are throwing fewer and fewer innings with each passing season and teams are carrying eight full-inning relievers nowadays. Guys like Loup, who is a good but not truly great matchup guy, are becoming harder to find. I’d be surprised to see the Yankees carry someone like Loup next year.

Happ turned down three years to return to Yankees

According to Rosenthal (subs. req’d), lefty J.A. Happ turned down at least one contract offer with three guaranteed years to return to the Yankees. It’s unclear which team made that offer. The Phillies and Braves were said to be in the mix, as were the Angels, who Jeff Fletcher says offered two years and $28M with a third year vesting option. Happ returned to the Yankees on a two-year, $34M contract with a $17M third year option that vests with 27 starts or 165 innings in 2020.

“The chance to win was high on (my) list. I feel like this was a place that you come to the ballpark to win every day. I really appreciated that. I feel like it was a good fit to come back,” said Happ to Bryan Hoch earlier today. There have been a few instances of players taking less money to sign with the Yankees in recent years — Andrew Miller turned down more money from the Astros and Chase Headley turned down more money from an unknown team — and it seems Happ did the same. (Surely the three-year offer was worth more than $11.1M per year, right?) The $17M annual salary did seem a little high to me, and I assume the Yankees traded a few extra bucks to avoid that third guaranteed season. I’m cool with that. I didn’t love the idea of guaranteeing Happ’s age 38 season in 2021.

Yanks claim Parker Bridwell off waivers from Angels, Ronald Torreyes designated for assignment

November 26, 2018 by Mike

The Toe-night Show is no more. This afternoon the Yankees announced they have claimed right-hander Parker Bridwell off waivers from the Angels, and, to make room on the 40-man roster, Ronald Torreyes has been designated for assignment. Aw geez.

Bridwell, 27, had a decent year with the Halos in 2017, throwing 121 innings with a 3.64 ERA (4.84 FIP). His strikeout (14.8%) and ground ball (38.1%) rates were not good though. This past season Bridwell allowed 40 runs in 34.2 innings between Triple-A and MLB before surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow ended his season in June. As best I can tell, he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.

I assume the Yankees claimed Bridwell because he’s a spin rate guy. The performance and recent elbow surgery certainly don’t stand out, after all. His fastball (2,433 rpm), curveball (2,821 rpm), and cutter (2,525 rpm) have all shown comfortably above-average spin rates in his relatively brief MLB career, and I guess the Yankees believe he can be better with a healthy elbow.

As for Torreyes, everyone’s favorite utility guy went up-and-down in 2018, hitting .280/.294/.370 (78 wRC+). The non-tender deadline is this Friday and I kinda had a feeling Torreyes might lose his 40-man spot, so much so that I wrote about it for tomorrow’s thoughts post. Here’s that now defunct blurb:

One more potential non-tender candidate: Ronald Torreyes. Torreyes is projected to make $900,000 through arbitration next year and that’s not much in the grand scheme of things. It also might be more than the Yankees are willing to spend on an up-and-down utility guy with Tyler Wade, Thairo Estrada, Hanser Alberto, and Tim Locastro also on the 40-man roster and Go Urshela in Triple-A. Torreyes is a quality utility guy. Nothing more, nothing less. He puts the bat on the ball and he can play the three non-first base infield positions competently. His ceiling is limited because he has no power, doesn’t walk, and doesn’t steal bases. Wade is a better defender and a better runner. Thairo has more thump in his bat. Alberto and Urshela are much better glovemen. Locastro is more versatile and a better runner. Torreyes is very popular in the clubhouse but that didn’t stop the Yankees from sending him to Triple-A multiple times this year. I’m not sure non-tendering him and re-signing him to a minor league contract is possible — another team could swoop in with a guaranteed Major League contract and an easier path to big league playing time — but, if there’s a 40-man roster crunch, Torreyes could get non-tendered. The Yankees are fairly deep in up-and-down utility infield types and Torreyes is the most expensive (and least tooled up) of the bunch. A non-tender wouldn’t be a popular move but it could happen. (As for the clubhouse, if the Yankees can’t overcome the loss of Torreyes, then they have much bigger problems than losing a utility infielder.)

Hopefully Torreyes clears outright waivers and remains in the organization as a non-40-man player. Cheap utility guys have a tendency to get claimed on waivers though, especially when they have minor league options remaining (Torreyes does) and have shown they can be effective at the MLB level. Hopefully Torreyes clears. I don’t think it’ll happen though. Sucks.

Bridwell, meanwhile, is out of minor league options, meaning he can’t go to Triple-A without passing through waivers. The Yankees have quite the collection of out-of-options fringe starter/reliever types in Bridwell, Domingo German, Luis Cessa, and A.J. Cole. I’m curious to see how this all shakes out. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Bridwell wind up on outright waivers at some point as the Yankees see whether they can keep him as a non-40-man guy.

Sorting through possible trade partners for Sonny Gray

October 24, 2018 by Mike

Once the offseason really gets going in a few weeks, we’ll all focus on who the Yankees will add over the winter. Manny Machado? Bryce Harper? Patrick Corbin? Mystery players? Brian Cashman has said the rotation will be the “focus point” this winter and that is no surprise given the state of the starting staff. The Yankees also need to figure out left field, the infield without Didi Gregorius, and also reinforce the bullpen.

While we understandably spend an unhealthy about of time looking at who the Yankees could acquire this winter, we also have to remember the Yankees are trying to subtract a player as well. That player: Sonny Gray. Gray has been a colossal disappointment in pinstripes (4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP in 195.2 innings) and Cashman Has made it clear the Yankees will look to trade Gray this winter. He was unusually candid at his end-of-season press conference.

“It hasn’t worked out thus far,” said Cashman at that press conference. “I think he’s extremely talented. We’ll enter the winter, unfortunately, open-minded to a relocation. To maximize his abilities, it would be more likely best somewhere else. If I do find a match, you’re gonna see what we had hoped to see here … Someone, if they trade for him, is gonna get the player we wanted. I fully expect that.”

Cashman made a point of saying he won’t give Gray away — what’s he supposed to say? — but, clearly, the Yankees want to move him. Usually in these cases the GM says it’s up to the team to help the player figure it out. Cashman skipped that entirely. Having listened to Cashman and Aaron Boone and Larry Rothschild all season, I sense a lot of frustration here, and the Yankees are ready to move on. I’m not surprised.

As a 28-year-old starting pitcher with a good track record — even after last season, Sonny has a 3.66 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 900.2 big league innings — and a relatively low salary (projected $9.1M in 2019), I get the feeling the Yankees will have no trouble finding potential trade partners for Gray. And remember, he was great outside Yankee Stadium this year (3.17 ERA and 2.65 FIP). Teams will notice. If Sonny were on any other team, wouldn’t we look at him as a possible buy-low candidate? Sure we would. That’s how other teams see him.

With the caveat that things can be unpredictable in the offseason, I’ve singled out several clubs who appear to be possible trade suitors for Gray. Even though he’ll be a free agent next offseason, I don’t think Gray’s market is limited to contending teams. A rebuilding club could be looking at him as a buy-low candidate they could flip for more at the trade deadline, or sign long-term. The Reds traded for Matt Harvey, right? Same idea. Let’s dive in. (Reminder: My trade proposal sucks.)

Chicago White Sox

Why would they want Gray? The rebuild hit a bump in the road this season. Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson didn’t take that step forward, Lucas Giolito went backwards, and Michael Kopech went down with Tommy John surgery. The ChiSox are always looking to acquire high-end talent though — they reportedly made a run at Machado at the deadline — and Don Cooper is a highly regarded pitching coach with a history of fixing pitchers. Getting Sonny on the cheap and seeing whether he can be a viable long-term rotation piece could interest the White Sox.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Carson Fulmer? Eh, that’s one headache for another. Fulmer hasn’t even pitched well in Triple-A. The only thing he has going for him right now is the fading “eighth overall pick in 2015” shine. Unless a deal gets expanded, the return here would most likely be a prospect(s). Not sure there’s a Gray for big leaguer trade that makes sense, not unless the ChiSox are willing to sell super low on Giolito, which kinda defeats the purpose.

Cincinnati Reds

Why would they want Gray? Again, they traded for Harvey, right? The Reds took a flier on a talented pitcher to see whether he could be a long-term option. A no-risk move that didn’t cost them anything. Cincinnati desperately needs pitching help and taking a chance on Gray the same way they took a chance on Harvey could be a worthwhile endeavor. From their perspective, it’s all about cost.

Who could they send the Yankees? One year of Gray for one year of Scooter Gennett? The Yankees would do that in a heartbeat and the Reds would assuredly want more, and hey, maybe that’s a gap the two teams can bridge. The Reds have a lot of young pitchers who’ve stalled out at the MLB level (Cody Reed, Amir Garrett) and the Yankees could try to pry one (or two) of them loose in hopes of adding a long-term piece. Reclamation project for reclamation project, basically.

Houston Astros

Why would they want Gray? The Astros could lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency this offseason, and while they have some in-house rotation options (Josh James, Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock), they could pursue outside help. Sonny still has excellent spin rates across the board and Houston may see him as a good low-cost, high-upside candidate for their pitching lab. Keep in mind the Astros pursued Gray at the 2017 trade deadline as well. They’ve had interest in him before.

Who could they send the Yankees? Despite being a World Series contender, Houston has not been shy about trading players off their MLB roster, though they’ve been spare parts (Joe Musgrove) and out-of-favor guys (Ken Giles). The Yankees could push something like one year of Gray for one year of Peacock or one year of McHugh. Peacock was quite good as a starter last season before shifting to the bullpen this year and eventually being left off the postseason roster. Gray for Peacock? That seems like it could be a potential win-win or a potential lopsided deal for either team.

Los Angeles Angels

Why would they want Gray? Pretty simple, really. Mike Trout is two years from free agency, so the Angels aren’t about to rebuild, and they need rotation help. Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are a good enough rotation top two. Getting a guy like Gray to slot in behind Heaney and Skaggs and ahead of dudes like Felix Pena, Jaime Barria, and Nick Tropeano makes sense for the Angels. Get Sonny out of New York and into a more pitcher friendly ballpark.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Kole Calhoun? It’s a one-year commitment for each and the money is close to a wash, plus the Angels wouldn’t have much trouble finding a replacement corner outfielder in free agency. Calhoun’s a lefty bat and a very good defender who would slot in nicely in left field. He just stopped hitting though. Calhoun went from a 117 wRC+ in 2016 to a 98 wRC+ in 2017 to a 79 wRC+ in 2018. Eh. Put Gray in a more pitcher friendly ballpark and Calhoun in a more hitter friendly ballpark and maybe it works out for both teams?

Milwaukee Brewers

Why would they want Gray? I still think the Brewers are the best landing spot for Gray. They need rotation help and their pitching coach, Derek Johnson, was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. The two are close. It’s a fit. Milwaukee has done a real nice job accumulating talent under GM David Stearns and Gray seems right up their alley as an upside play.

Who could they send the Yankees? Two names jumped to mind: Chase Anderson and Eric Thames. Anderson was great in 2017 (2.74 ERA and 3.58 FIP) and not so great in 2018 (3.93 ERA and 5.22 FIP), so much so that he was left off the postseason roster. He is guaranteed $6.5M next year with affordable options for 2020 and 2021. I’m not sure the Brewers are ready to give up on him yet. They’re trying to add pitching, not subtract it. Besides, bringing a dude who gave up 30 homers in 158 innings this season into Yankee Stadium might not work out too well.

As for Thames, remember his huge April last year? Well, his performance has cratered since, and he hit .219/.306/.478 (105 wRC+) this year. Jesus Aguilar jumped him on the first base depth chart. Ryan Braun has also played some first base, so Thames is probably third on their first base depth chart. He wasn’t even on the Brewers postseason roster. Thames has one guaranteed year remaining on his contract ($7M) and Gray for Thames gives the Brewers a starter and the Yankees a lefty power bat they could plug in at first base or DH or, in an emergency, the outfield. Hmmm.

UPDATE: I should’ve mentioned Jonathan Schoop here as well, given that he’s a free agent next winter who is projected to make similar money as Gray. I just assumed the Brewers are not ready to flip him after trading some pretty good prospects to get him at the deadline. Schoop’s someone to keep in mind though.

Oakland Athletics

Why would they want Gray? I’ve heard through the grapevine that the A’s checked in on Gray at this year’s trade deadline. They really need starting pitching — they didn’t have anyone to start in the Wild Card Game! — and they know Sonny as well as anyone. The Athletics do have a history of trading for pricey veteran players one year before free agency (Jim Johnson and Luke Gregerson jump to mind) and again, they know Gray. They showed interest at the deadline and may look to bring him back to Oakland again this winter.

Who could they send the Yankees? Reverse the trade! Gray for James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Dustin Fowler! Nah, not happening. This trade has no winners right now. Mateo stunk this year, Kaprielian still hasn’t returned to game action following Tommy John surgery in April 2017, and Fowler struggled in MLB this year and was passed by Ramon Laureano on the center field depth chart. I don’t see an obvious big leaguer for big leaguer trade match here. It would have to be a prospect(s) that come back to New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Why would they want Gray? This is a long shot, I think. The Pirates traded Gerrit Cole last year because they were worried they couldn’t sign him long-term. Would they then turn around and trade for Gray when he could leave next year? I mean, sure, it’s possible, and they do need someone to slot alongside Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, and Trevor Williams in the rotation. Money might be the issue here. Pittsburgh operates on a strict budget and Gray may not fit.

Who could they send the Yankees? Hey, if Gray signs at his MLBTR projected salary, he and Nova would be a wash financially. The Pirates aren’t doing that though. Besides, I’ve seen enough Ivan Nova for one lifetime. He’s been the same old Ivan Nova the last two years (98 ERA+ and 4.51 FIP) after his stellar eleven-start cameo with Pittsburgh in 2016. Would the Pirates do Gray for Corey Dickerson? The Yankees could slot Dickerson in at left field and DH and he’d give them a good lefty bat. Seems unlikely. I don’t see a good big leaguer for big leaguer trade. A prospect(s) trade it would have to be.

San Diego Padres

Why would they want Gray? The Padres are my sleeper team. They have no money on the books long-term other than Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and their farm system is incredible. One of the best I’ve ever seen. They are very well-positioned to take a chance on Gray, see what he does next season, then pay to keep him if he’s a fit. San Diego reportedly tried to land Noah Syndergaard at the deadline. They’re looking for pitching. Gray’s no Syndergaard, but he could be really good, and the Padres are the perfect team to roll the dice.

Who could they send the Yankees? I thought about Cory Spangenberg. He’ll never live up to hype associated with being the tenth overall pick in 2011, but he’s a lefty bat who can play the three non-first base infield positions and also left field. The downside is Spangenberg has only hit .252/.318/.385 (88 wRC+) with a 29.0% strikeout rate in 815 plate appearances the last two years. He has two years of control remaining and perhaps the Yankees will see him as a poor man’s Didi Gregorius/Aaron Hicks. The talented player who hasn’t put together yet. I dunno. Aside from prospects, there’s no much on San Diego’s roster that excites me.

San Francisco Giants

Why would they want Gray? San Francisco’s interest in Gray depends entirely on their long-term plan. They’re hiring a new baseball operations head this winter and, if they decide to rebuild, forget it. No reason to bring in Gray. If they decide to go for it next year while Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey (and Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt) are in their primes, then the Giants could definitely be a team to watch for Gray. Their rotation is pretty sketchy with Jeff Samardzija crashing and Johnny Cueto having Tommy John surgery.

Who could they send the Yankees? In last week’s mailbag I looked at Joe Panik and Tony Watson. I can’t see the Giants trading Watson for Gray for two reasons. One, they could get more for him elsewhere. And two, if they trade for Gray, it’s because they want to win in 2019, and trading Watson hurts that cause. As for Panik, that seems more reasonable. Both he and Gray are reclamation projects at this point and San Francisco has some others they could plug in at second base. The Yankees have liked Panik in the past and they could bring him aboard as their second baseman (with Gleyber Torres shifting to shortstop) until Gregorius returns. Other than Panik and Watson, I don’t see another fit with the Giants. Their big league roster is thin and their farm system is weak.

Seattle Mariners

Why would they want Gray? Depending who you ask, the Mariners have either seven viable big league starters (Roenis Elias, Marco Gonzales, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, Wade LeBlanc, James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez) or three viable big league starters (Gonzales, Leake, Paxton). Felix has crashed hard the last few years and Elias, LeBlanc, and Ramirez are journeymen. If Gray leaves New York and pitches like he did earlier in his career, he’d be the second best starter in Seattle’s rotation, hands down. The window is closing and GM Jerry Dipoto has made it clear he’s going to do all he can to win before it slams shut.

Who could they send the Yankees? Geez, I have no idea. Their farm system is barren and their best big leaguers with short-term control are Felix (nope), Denard Span (eh), Juan Nicasio (nope), and Nick Vincent (nope). I’m sure we could cobble together an acceptable trade package if we tried hard enough. Nothing jumps out to me though.

Washington Nationals

Why would they want Gray? As bad as they were this year (82-80), the Nationals remain a win-now team. They still have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Victor Robles even if Bryce Harper leaves. Pretty good core! The Nationals could absolutely contend next season in the blob of mediocrity that is the National League. Washington has Scherzer, Strasburg, Tanner Roark, and maybe Joe Ross in their rotation. There is definitely room for Gray.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Adam Eaton? The money is close to a wash and the Nationals could still move forward with a Soto-Robles-Michael Taylor/free agent outfield should Harper not return. Knee and ankle injuries have limited Eaton to 118 games the last two seasons, but, when healthy, he’s hit .300/.394/.422 (123 wRC+). That’s really good! The downside is the leg injuries have sapped his defensive and baserunning value. As a stopgap left fielder, Eaton could work real nice. Would the Nationals really trade such a high on-base leadoff hitter if they’re trying to win though? I don’t see any other players on their big league roster that make sense.

* * *

Cashman is not an idiot. He was so open about trading Gray because he knows there’s interest and he won’t have any trouble drumming up potential trade partners. If he were worried at all about his trade leverage, he would’ve said the Yankees plan to keep Gray and get him right. That’s not what happened. In all likelihood multiple teams will be involved and the Yankees will benefit from a bidding war.

That doesn’t mean they’re going to walk away with a great package, of course. At the end of the day, Sonny is still coming off a terrible season and he’s still only under control one more season. His trade value is not sky high. It’s not nil though. I get the feeling we’re in for a lot of Sonny Gray rumors this winter, and, when it’s all said and done, the Yankees are going to end up with more than you’d expect for a dude coming off a replacement level season.

Scouting the Trade Market: Under-the-Radar Pitching Targets

June 13, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

At some point between now and the July 31st trade deadline, the Yankees are going to trade for a starting pitcher. It is not 100% set in stone, of course, just extremely likely. Jordan Montgomery is done for the season and Masahiro Tanaka will be out several weeks, plus enough physical concerns exit with Tanaka and CC Sabathia that adding depth to get through the 162-game season makes sense.

The trade deadline is less than seven weeks away now, and while many players will become available between now and then, we already have an idea who the top trade candidates will be. Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ, Tyson Ross, maybe Michael Fulmer, maybe Chris Archer. There’s a case to be made for acquiring each of those guys and a case to be made for staying away. They’re all should be available though.

We’ve been talking about those guys so much that I’m sick of hearing about them. I’m more interested in potential surprise trade candidates. The guys who become available that no one really had on their radar. The Tommy Kahnle pickup, though part of a larger trade, kinda came out of nowhere. Trying to come up with surprise trade candidates is never easy, though after some digging around, I think I’ve identified three possibilities. Let’s get to ’em.

The Project Pitcher: RHP Tyler Glasnow, Pirates

Background: The soon-to-be 25-year-old Glasnow is a former top prospect who spent several years in the top 25 of Baseball America’s annual top 100 list. Walks have always been an issue though, and in spot start duty from 2016-17, he had a 6.75 ERA (5.74 FIP) with 19.5% strikeouts and 13.4% walks in 85.1 innings. This season Glasnow has a 4.89 ERA (3.56 FIP) with 29.4% strikeouts, 11.8% walks, and 51.1% grounders in 35 innings, all in long relief.

Breakdown: Glasnow is a Yankees-sized pitcher (6-foot-8 and 220 lbs.) and he has simplified things out of the bullpen this year, relying mostly on his mid-to-upper-90s fastball and hard 80-ish mph curveball. During his days as a starter he also threw an upper-80s changeup and tinkered with a slider. Glasnow has shown much better than league average spin rates with his fastball (2,419 rpm vs. 2,263 rpm) and curveball (2,825 rpm vs. 2,507 pm). That is an elite curveball spin rate on par with Justin Verlander’s (2,837 rpm) and Charlie Morton’s (2,931 rpm).

Reasons To Trade For Him: The raw stuff is excellent — that’s why Glasnow was a top prospect for such a long time — and we’re talking about a 24-year-old kid under team control through 2023. The Yankees love physically huge power pitchers and Glasnow fits that profile perfectly. He misses bats, he gets grounders, and an argument can be made you’d be buying low on him right now. Would the Pirates trade him? Who knows. They haven’t exactly knocked it out of the park with their decision-making lately.

Reasons To Stay Away: Glasnow’s mechanics and lack of control are real problems. There’s some Dellin Betances in him. He’s big, his delivery can fall out of whack, and finding the strike zone isn’t always easy. Even during his prospect days, there was some thought Glasnow would fit best in the bullpen, where he could work in shorter stints and not have to worry about repeating his delivery 100 times a game. Those are really the only reasons to stay away. The stuff is good and he’s been healthy throughout his career. The mechanics and control make Glasnow a project, potentially a difficult one.

The Post-Hype Pitcher: RHP Jeff Hoffman, Rockies

Background: The Blue Jays drafted Hoffman, a semi-local kid from Albany, with the ninth overall pick in the 2014 draft even though he had Tommy John surgery a few weeks earlier. They shipped him to the Rockies as the headliner in the Troy Tulowitzki deal in 2015. Hoffman, 25, has been an up-and-down spot starter the last few years, pitching to a 5.65 ERA (5.15 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 9.7% walks in 130.2 innings. There is of course some Coors Field stink in there — Hoffman has a career 6.97 ERA (5.41 FIP) at home and 4.04 ERA (4.76 FIP) on the road.

Breakdown: Hoffman was not the ninth overall pick despite Tommy John surgery by accident. He’s a power pitcher with a deep arsenal. His fastball sits mid-90s, his slider and changeup are mid-80s offerings, and he has an upper-70s curveball as well. If you’re into such things, the scouting report at FanGraphs says the fastball, slider, and curveball all have above-average potential with the changeup being a potential average fourth pitch. Last season, during his only extended big league stint, Hoffman showed above-average spin rates with his fastball (2,385 rpm vs. 2,263 rpm), his curveball (2,687 rpm vs. 2,507 rpm), and his slider (2,706 rpm vs. 2,398 rpm).

Reasons To Trade For Him: The Rockies have more quality young pitching right now than they’ve ever had at any point in franchise history. Hoffman has been struck in Triple-A most of the season — he was recently called up for long relief duty — and, to me, he’s a great post-hype target. By that I mean a talented young player who was once a top prospect, but has since kinda faded out of the spotlight. Think the pitcher version of Didi Gregorius or Aaron Hicks.

Hoffman clearly has a lot going for him given his two quality breaking balls and high-octane heater. He hasn’t had much time in the big leagues, but he strikes me as someone who could really benefit from the Yankees’ anti-fastball philosophy. Look at Hoffman’s pitch selection during his 2016-17 MLB stints:

The curveball and slider (and, to a lesser degree, the changeup) are good pitches. Throw them! I know Hoffman throws hard, but approaching 70% fastballs from 2016-17? Seems a little high given his secondary pitches. Maybe that’s a Coors Field thing. The breaking balls didn’t behave properly in the thin mountain air and Hoffman leaned on his fastball. Either way, a 25-year-old with a good four-pitch mix who is under team control through 2023 seems like an obvious trade target to me, assuming the Rockies are actually open to dealing him.

Reasons To Stay Away: The Tommy John surgery, for one. There’s an injury history here. The larger flaw is that, even at his best, Hoffman didn’t miss as many bats as the stuff would lead you to believe. Despite a career 27.6% strikeout rate in the minors, his swing-and-miss rate has been consistently in the 9% to 10% range, which is well-below-average for a top pitching prospect. Trading for Hoffman would mean banking on a return to sea level and the anti-fastball lifestyle getting him to miss more bats and maybe get more ground balls too (career 43.8% grounders).

The Established Rental: RHP Garrett Richards, Angels

Background: At this point Richards is a known commodity. He broke out in 2014, battled injuries from 2016-17, and so far this season he has a 3.26 ERA (3.87 FIP) with 27.1% strikeouts, 11.4% walks, and 50.6% grounders in 66.1 innings. The Yankees have hammered Richards twice this year, scoring 12 runs (eight earned) in four innings in two starts. Against non-Yankees teams, the 30-year-old right-hander has a 2.31 ERA (3.64 FIP) in 62.1 innings this season.

Breakdown: Richards truly has top 1% stuff, I believe. He’s upper-90s with his four-seam and two-seam fastballs, right around 90 mph with his slider, and low-80s with his hammer curveball. Among the 101 pitchers to throw at least 1,000 pitches so far this season, Richards has the highest four-seamer spin rate (2,607 rpm), the highest two-seamer spin rate (2,549 rpm), the highest slider spin rate (2,906 rpm), and the highest curveball spin rate (3,245 rpm). Spin rate is not everything. It’s like velocity. It’s one tool in the shed. But holy crap, no pitcher in baseball combines velocity and spin like Richards.

Reasons To Trade For Him: This seems obvious enough, right? Richards has shown he’s a very good big league pitcher with high-end stuff that produces strikeouts and grounders. He’s a free agent after the season, so this is a rental situation. For Richards to actually become available, the Angels will probably have to fall out of the race before the deadline, which simply might not happen, even with Shohei Ohtani and Andrelton Simmons on the disabled list. The Halos are currently 6.5 games back in the AL West and six games back of the second wildcard spot. To me, they look good enough to hang around the race all season. If they don’t though, Richards may suddenly become a very in-demand trade candidate.

Reasons To Stay Away: The lack of success at Yankee Stadium (19 runs in 23 career innings) doesn’t scare me too much because Richards wouldn’t be facing the Yankees at Yankee Stadium anymore. The larger issue here is his injury history, which is ugly. Richards tore the patella tendon in his left knee covering first base in 2014, he tore his elbow ligament in 2016 and managed to avoid Tommy John surgery by rehabbing the ligament with an experimental stem cell procedure, and last season he missed most of the year with a biceps strain. Trade for Richards and you run the risk of him getting hurt and not contributing at all. And maybe that’s a risk worth taking. It’s not like there’s a long-term commitment here. Aside from the injuries, everything else looks pretty good. Richards can bring it.

* * *

The Yankees should — and will — consider both short and long-term rotation additions at the deadline. If there’s a rental who could help put them over the top this season, great. If there’s someone available will multiple years of control who can help them win now and later, even better. Montgomery will miss most of next season and Sabathia might not be back. There’s no such thing as too much pitching, right? The Yankees have space for rentals like Richards and long-term guys like Glasnow and Hoffman.

There are some obvious issues with the three guys in this post. One, Richards might not ever actually become available. And two, are Glasnow and Hoffman guys who could help you win right now? Are they starting postseason games this year? Maybe they could. To me, they seem like future pieces the Yankees would acquire this season, tinker with the rest of the way, then really turn loose next season. They’d join the Justus Sheffield/Jonathan Loaisiga talent pool rather than the Luis Severino/Sonny Gray/Sabathia/Tanaka group.

Coming up with under-the-radar trade candidates ain’t easy. Glasnow, Hoffman, and Richards jumped out at me because the stuff is excellent and, in the case of Glasnow and Hoffman, they fit the “buy low on a talented player who is kinda sorta falling out of favor with his current team” mold the Yankees used to get Gregorius and Hicks (and Nathan Eovaldi). I have no doubt surprise trade candidates will begin to surface. Maybe these dudes will be among them. Either way, the Yankees are going to look high and low for another starter before July 31st.