River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » Kansas City Royals

Yankeemetrics: Vets, replacements to the rescue (April 18-21)

by

(New York Post)

April 18: WTF cold bats
All of the momentum from the sweep of the Red Sox was quickly erased in a boring 6-1 loss to Kansas City on Thursday night. Four singles. The only run was scored on an out (sac fly). Gross.

Domingo German was hit hard in the first few innings, before he settled down and ultimately gave the Yankees a “quality start” (six innings, three runs). German had allowed just three singles to the 50 batters he faced in his first three outings… And then the regression-dragon smacked him right in the face, as two of the first three batters he faced on Thursday hit doubles and two more guys later added solo homers. Before Thursday, German was the only pitcher in the majors that had faced at least 50 batters and not allowed an extra-base hit.

The game was still winnable when German departed after the sixth inning, trailing 3-1. But Jonathan Holder effectively torched any chance of a comeback when he coughed up two runs on three hits while getting just one out in the seventh. This is not the first time Aaron Boone has called on Holder in a tight game and he’s imploded.

Prior to Thursday, Holder had the highest average Leverage Index (when entering a game) on the team — basically Boone called on him in the most-pressured situations on average this season — and yet his 7.00 ERA following Thursday’s implosion was the second-highest among Yankee relievers. Hmmm …

(USA Today)

April 19: Let the old guys play
The Yankees bounced back from Thursday’s loss as the old guys sparked a 6-2 win on Friday night. Brett Gardner delivered an early game-changing homer and CC Sabathia turned back the clock in another vintage performance.

Gardner’s two-run shot in the third inning quickly flipped a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead that the Yankees wouldn’t relinquish. It was his fifth of the season, and through Friday, the only player in MLB with more homers as a centerfielder was Mike Trout (6).

CC Sabathia continued his incredible late-career resurgence with another strong outing, holding the Royals to just one unearned run in five innings. It was his 247th career win, tying Bartolo Colon and Jack Quinn on the all-time list. But more important is this note on CC The Stoppah:

Sabathia showed why he is the king of soft contact, generating a bunch of easy grounders and lazy flyouts. Only one of the 12 balls in play was “hard-hit” (95-plus mph), averaging just 77.5 mph off the bat. Through Friday, that was the sixth-lowest average exit velocity in a game for any starting pitcher this season (min. 10 balls in play).

April 20: Injury gods hate the Yankees
The Yankees crushed the Royals, 9-2, on Saturday, but it was a win only on the scoreboard. They added another player to their M.A.S.H. unit when Aaron Judge left the game with an oblique injury in the sixth inning. With Judge added to the IL on Sunday, the Yankees now have an MLB-high 13 players on the injured list and those 13 players, based on preseason ZIPS projections, account for a combined 32.7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). That’s more projected WAR than 17 teams this season.

Clint Frazier’s scorching-hot bat sparked the offense again, as he went 3-for-4 with a homer, double and a single while driving in two runs. He finished the night with a .351 batting average and five dingers on the season. That seems good:

April 21: Romine to the rescue
The Yankees capped off a second straight series win at the Stadium in thrilling fashion, riding a rollercoaster of blown leads and late-game rallies to beat the Royals on a 10th inning walk-off hit by Austin Romine. Believe it or not, but their 11-10 record is just one game back of their mark through 21 games last year (12-9).

Romine, who also tied the game in the eighth with a run-scoring single, saved the Yankees from arguably their most awful and crushing loss in nearly a decade. The last time the Yankees lost a game when leading by at least five runs entering the eighth inning was September 28, 2011 vs Rays (click at your own risk). Instead, Romine joined some Yankee legends with his clutch hitting and first career walk-off RBI.

He is the third Yankee in the last 30 years with an extra-inning walk-off hit against the Royals, along with Brett Gardner (August 16, 2008) and Don Mattingly (May 19, 1990). And most impressively, produced our #FunFact of the game, becoming the second Yankee catcher since 1925 with a game-tying hit in the eighth inning or later and then a walk-off hit in the same game. The other? Yogi Berra on July 2, 1954.

(AP)

James Paxton would have been the star of the highlights if not for an epic eighth-inning bullpen meltdown that robbed him of the win and made the walk-off heroics necessary. Paxton pitched his second straight gem, striking out 12 in six scoreless innings. Let’s recap this historic two-start stretch:

  • Joined David Cone (1998) as the only Yankees with at least a dozen strikeouts in back-to-back games.
  • Sixth lefthander in MLB history with two games in a row of at least 12 punchouts and no earned runs. The rest of the list: Clayton Kershaw (2015), Chris Sale (2015), Randy Johnson (2001), Sandy Koufax (1965), Karl Spooner (1954).
  • Second major-league pitcher (since 1908) to strike out at least 12 batters, while allowing zero runs and fewer than five baserunners, in consecutive games. Some dude named Randy Johnson is the other.

And, finally, Paxton now has his own page in the franchise record book:

4/18 to 4/21 Series Preview: Kansas City Royals

by

We are all Whitnesses. (Getty Images)

After two games with the Red Sox, the Yankees close out their homestand with four games against the last-place Royals.

Their Story So Far

Kansas City is just four years removed from winning the World Series, but you wouldn’t know it looking at the roster. On the 25-man roster, only Alex Gordon remains. The Royals’ record, 6-12 coming into Thursday’s action, reflects the overhaul as the team goes into another rebuild.

Their offense has been right near league average with a 99 wRC+ while leading baseball with 20 stolen bases. Their pitching staff is more of a problem. The Royals’ 5.34 collective ERA is tied for 24th in all of baseball while the bullpen has a 6.37 ERA, third-worst in MLB.

Injury Report

Catcher Salvador Perez is out for the season with Tommy John surgery while pitchers Trevor Oaks and Jesse Hahn are on the 60-day IL with hip and elbow issues, respectively.

On the 10-day IL, starter Danny Duffy is working his way back from left shoulder tightness and is making a rehab start this weekend. Reliever Brian Flynn is out with left elbow soreness.

Players Spotlight: Alex Gordon and Whit Merrifield

If you’ve heard one thing about the Royals this season, it was likely about Merrifield surpassing 30 games with his hitting streak dating back to last season. However, there’s more to Whit than just hitting. He’s able to play all over the field. He hits for average, not too much power, and steals a lot of bases. He led the American League in steals each of the past two seasons. He’s everything you want in a leadoff hitter.

Meanwhile, Gordon has had a late-career resurgence starting with the last two months of 2018. He still struggles against same-sided pitchers, but he’s hitting .339 with a 1.008 OPS to begin the season, hitting three homers after just 22 over the last two seasons. In his final year under contract, Gordon would be valuable even if his bat was falling flat; Gordon is a wizard in the field, having won six Gold Gloves in left field, including the last two years.

Potential Lineup

  1. Whit Merrifield, 2B (.320/.350/.493, 123 wRC+)
  2. Adalberto Mondesi, SS (.254/.289/.507, 106 wRC+)
  3. Alex Gordon, LF (.339/.427/.581, 172 wRC+)
  4. Hunter Dozier, 3B (.298/.388/.596, 160 wRC+)
  5. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B (.163/.339/.306, 83 wRC+)
  6. Jorge Soler, RF (.221/.284/.471, 99 wRC+)
  7. Lucas Duda, DH (.200/.359/.433, 111 wRC+)
  8. Martin Maldonado, C (.174/.269/.239, 43 wRC+)
  9. Billy Hamilton, CF (.213/.283/.213, 39 wRC+)

The team has some positional flexibility with Dozier and Duda able to man first base and Merrifield able to play middle infield or all around the outfield. Chris Owings is a utility player while backup catcher Cam Gallagher and pinch runner/outfielder Terrance Gore man the bench.

Junis. (Getty Images)

Pitching Matchups

Thursday (6:35 PM ET): RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Homer Bailey

Bailey seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s just 32 years old, having spent much of the last four seasons on the disabled list. From 2015-18, he started just 46 games for the Reds, going 9-27 with a 6.25 ERA in 231 2/3 innings.

The veteran righty has been able to avoid the IL this season, but the results haven’t changed. He brings a 5.29 ERA into this series with three home runs in 17 innings. His strikeout rate has been surprisingly prolific, fanning 21 in those 17 frames after just 75 strikeouts over 106 1/3 innings last season.

He still works with a 93 mph heater while going offspeed about half the time with his mid-80s splitter his key secondary offering. He’ll also mix in a slow curve and a hard slider.

Clint Frazier and Brett Gardner are 4-for-7 with a walk against Bailey. German has only faced Maldonado, who he struck out in 2017.

Bailey (Baseball Savant)

Friday (7:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia (vs. Royals) vs. RHP Jakob Junis (vs. Yankees)

This matchup comes in with an unfortunate narrative already baked in: Junis is the pitcher who hit Aaron Judge in the wrist last summer and caused him to miss more than a month of games. The HBP didn’t appear intentional, yet Junis got death threats for injuring the Yankee slugger.

On the mound, he’s been a bit unlucky this season. The right-hander has pitched to a 3.55 FIP but has a 6.14 ERA. His strikeout rate has improved in each of his three MLB seasons — he’s at 24.5 percent through four starts — while his walk rate has hovered around six percent.

Junis faced the Yankees twice last season, beating them in Kansas City before getting pounded for seven runs in the Bronx. The big blow in the New York start was a grand slam by Didi Gregorius. Get well soon, Didi!

Junis. (Baseball Savant)

Saturday (1:05 PM ET): Masahiro Tanaka (vs. Royals) vs. Heath Fillmyer (vs. Yankees)

Fillmyer has been thrust into the Royals’ rotation with Duffy on the mend and will be making his third start of the season Saturday. He struggled against the upstart Mariners in his first appearance before settling down with an OK start (three runs, one walk, two Ks in five innings) against the White Sox.

The young right-hander works off a low-90s fastball and sinker with 20 percent sliders, 13 percent curves and 14 percent changeups. Statcast doesn’t rate him well as he’s allowed a bottom third percentile exit velocity (93.6 mph) in his eight innings and has a low strikeout and hard hit rate. Let’s see a larger sample before making definitive judgment.

Fillmyer is a local product. He is from Roebling, N.J. and attended Mercer County Community College, not too far from the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate Trenton Thunder.

Fillmyer (Baseball Savant)

Sunday (1:05 PM ET) James Paxton (vs. Royals) vs. Jorge Lopez (Never faced Yankee batters)

Lopez is a product of the Royals’ rebuild, coming over in the Mike Moustakas trade in July. The 26-year-old starter actually debuted in the Majors for Milwaukee in 2015 but didn’t get an extended opportunity to start until after the traded.

Like seemingly everyone in baseball, he’s struck out more batters this season while being prone to the long ball. Extremely prone. He’s allowed six homers in 23 innings. The White Sox produced five of the those homers across his two starts against the Southsiders. Still, he produced a career-high 10 strikeouts in his last outing in Chicago.

Lopez has a fastball averaging 93 mph (down one mph from last season) and turns to that and his sinker about half of the time, filling in the gaps mostly with his low-80s curveball.

Lopez. (Baseball Savant)

Bullpen Status

Though there are many, if you want to pinpoint one weakness on the roster, it’s the bullpen. Kansas City leads baseball in losses where the team held the lead, though the Yankees aren’t far behind. Their starters outside Brad Keller, who the Yankees miss, have been middling to bad and the bullpen hasn’t been much better.

Kansas City’s eight-man bullpen has a clear division with four veterans and four youngsters. Right-handers Wily Peralta and Brad Boxberger are relievers with late-inning bona fides while Ian Kennedy has transitioned from the rotation to the bullpen. Left-hander Jake Diekman can work as a matchup lefty or get RHBs out. Of those pitchers, Kennedy has had the best start to the season while Peralta and Boxberger have ERAs above 7.00.

On the young side, right-handers Glenn Sparkman and Jake Newberry have had poor starts in limited innings while second-year righty Scott Barlow has been a pleasant surprise with a 2.57 ERA over seven innings. Lefty Richard Lovelady debuted earlier this April and has a 16.20 ERA in 1 2/3 innings.

Keys for the weekend

Take Three of Four (or More)

The Royals have the second-worst record in the American League (Boston is worse) and they’ve played like it. The Yankees need to keep winning series, home or away, against inferior competition if they want to make up their early deficit to Tampa Bay.

Speeding Tickets

Kansas City can run. Merrifield led baseball in stolen bases last season while Hamilton has 264 stolen bases over the last five seasons. Off the bench, Gore has been known for his pinch-running prowess. With pitchers like Adam Ottavino not known for holding runners, KC could feast this weekend.

Yankees make one selection, get raided in 2018 Rule 5 Draft

by

Green. (@MiLB)

The 2018 Winter Meetings came to an unofficial close earlier today with the annual Rule 5 Draft. It is baseball’s way of ensuring players aren’t trapped in the minors indefinitely. The Yankees have a fairly deep farm system and it is no surprise then that they lost several players in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, mostly in the minor league phase.

Here are the full Rule 5 Draft results. Here are the players the Yankees lost:

  • Diamondbacks: RHP Nick Green (in MLB phase)
  • Athletics: OF Mark Payton (in minor league phase)
  • Cubs: RHP Alex Vargas (in minor league phase)
  • Phillies: RHP Gilmael Troya (in minor league phase)
  • Red Sox: RHP Anyelo Gomez (in minor league phase)
  • Royals: C Chris Rabago (in minor league phase)

As a reminder, players taken in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft have to stick on their new team’s 25-man big league roster all next season, or be placed on waivers and offered back to their original team. Players taken in the minor league phase are just gone. There are no roster rules. Those teams get to keep those players.

Green, 23, came over from the Rangers in the Carlos Beltran trade and he is a personal favorite only because he has a funky cutter/sinker hybrid that helped him post to a 66.4% ground ball rate this season, highest in the minors (min. 130 innings). Green threw 132.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA (4.28 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 11.1% walks this season, with most of that coming with High-A Tampa.

The D’Backs are rebuilding, the Paul Goldschmidt trade confirmed that, so I imagine Green will get a long look in Spring Training and have a chance to stick in their bullpen. Jumping from High-A to the big leagues is not easy, especially with a walk rate like that, but Green’s funky cut-sinker is a dominant ground ball pitch and he could have staying power as a reliever who pounds away with that one pitch.

Among the minor league phase losses, Payton is the most notable because he’s been in the system the longest. The 27-year-old spent most of the last three seasons in Triple-A and hit .259/.368/.401 (120 wRC+) with six homers in 62 games in 2018. A guy like Payton had little hope of cracking New York’s outfield in the near future. He has a much greater chance to reach the big leagues with the Athletics.

Going into the 2018 season I ranked Vargas as the No. 30 prospect in the farm system but clearly I overrated him. The Yankees never used him like a prospect this year. The 21-year-old bounced between the rotation and bullpen, from level to level. They sent him wherever an arm was needed, basically. Vargas threw 83 innings with a 4.01 ERA (4.07 FIP) with 14.3% strikeout and 4.6% walks this season, mostly with Low-A Charleston.

Gomez, 25, was selected and returned by the Braves as a Major League Rule 5 Draft pick last offseason. He threw only 7.1 innings with Triple-A Scranton this season before going down with a significant shoulder injury. The 21-year-old Troya showed some promise a few years ago but hasn’t taken that step forward. He’s yet to pitch above rookie ball. Rabago, 25, was a waiver claim from the Rockies late this year. He played only seven games in the organization, all with Double-A Trenton.

The Yankees did add two players in minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, first grabbing righty Adonis De La Cruz from the Mariners. The soon-to-be 24-year-old is a converted outfielder who threw 57.1 relief innings with a 4.71 ERA (2.80 FIP) with 30.2% strikeouts and 7.7% walks in Low Class-A. The Yankees have had some recent success with minor league Rule 5 Draft picks, most notably turning Yefry Ramirez into a tradeable asset, so maybe they can do it again with De La Cruz.

According to Emily Waldon, the Yankees acquired outfielder Tyler Hill from the Tigers after the Rule 5 Draft. Detroit took him from the Red Sox in the minor league phase. Huh. Every year one or two players selected in the Major League phase get traded right after the Rule 5 Draft. I can’t remember the last time a minor league phase guy was flipped. Anyway, the 22-year-old Hill authored a .254/.348/.312 (95 wRC+) batting line with one homer and 27 steals in 124 High-A games in 2018. Sox Prospects calls him a “a bat-first, organizational player,” so there you go. The Yankees likely sent the Tigers cash or a similar organizational player in the trade.

So, all told, the Yankees did lose an interesting prospect in Green and some upper level inventory in Payton, Gomez, and Rabago in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. Green could still be returned. The other three plus Vargas and Troya are gone for good. I can’t find a scouting report on De La Cruz but a recently converted position player with a 30.2% strikeout is interesting enough. Hill’s an organizational guy who will help fill out rosters. Nothing exciting, but the Rule 5 Draft rarely is.

Yankeemetrics: Taking care of business (July 26-29)

by Leave a Comment

(AP)

Back to business
The Yankees headed back to the Bronx, and returned to bashing baseballs with a 7-2 victory in the opener over the Royals. Didi Gregorius was swinging the hot bat on Thursday, scoring the Yankees’ first run in the opening frame after belting a one-out double, and then breaking the game open with a three-run homer in the fourth inning.

Those were his 20th double and 18th home run of the season, the third straight year he’s reached those double and homer totals. #FunFact Alert No. 1: Didi and Trevor Story are the only MLB shortstops to put up both those numbers in each of the last three seasons. #FunFact Alert No. 2: Gregorius is the only Yankee shortstop ever with back-to-back-to-back seasons of at least 18 homers and 20 doubles.

(AP)

Sonny Gray continued his dominance of the league’s worst teams but — in a shocking twist — also delivered a solid, homer-free performance in the Bronx. He scattered three hits across five scoreless innings, the first time since joining the Yankees last July that he didn’t allow a run in a start at Yankee Stadium.

This season Gray has made five starts against the AL’s three last-place teams (two vs. Royals, three vs. Orioles, zero vs. Rangers), producing a 1.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP across 31 innings. Among the 33 players lucky enough to pitch at least 20 innings versus those teams this season (through Thursday), Gray’s ERA ranks fourth-best and his WHIP is second-best.

Zach Britton took the mound in Yankee pinstripes for the first time, needing just 10 pitches to record a perfect inning via two groundouts and a strikeout. After Thursday’s debut outing, his 65.9 percent groundball rate in 2018 was the highest among AL pitchers with at least 15 innings pitched.

(Getty)

Sevy’s slide
Any momentum from the series-opening win was erased after Friday’s rainout, and the Yankees produced an embarrassing and disappointing performance in losing the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader. With the 10-5 loss, the Yankees still haven’t swept a twinbill since April 16, 2014 vs. the Cubs, their longest drought since a 14-doubleheader sweepless stretch spanning the 1969-70 seasons.

The Yankees’ RISP woes were on display again as they went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position and stranded nine men on base. The worst failure came in the second inning when they loaded the bases with no outs and didn’t plate a single run. This season, teams scored at least one run 85 percent of the time in that situation.

The Yankees had another excruciating bases-loaded failure with two outs in the sixth inning when Giancarlo Stanton lined a laser to right field that was caught near the warning track. Based on the combo of exit velocity (102.3 mph) and launch angle (22 degrees), that type of batted ball is a hit 76 percent of the time.

Their terrible clutch hitting was exacerbated by the fact that they were playing from behind the entire game thanks to the continued struggles of Luis Severino. His summer slump extended to four games as the Royals mashed him for six runs on eight hits — including three doubles and a homer — before he was pulled in the fifth inning.

*Hard-hit rate per Fangraphs.com
IP ERA HR GB% K% Hard%*
Last 4 Starts 19.1 8.84 7 32.8% 20.9% 43.3%
First 18 Starts 118.1 1.98 6 45.6% 30.1% 31.8%

This is arguably either the worst or second-worst stretch of his career:

  • Only other time he had four-game span (all starts) with an ERA of at least 8.00 was April 26-May 13, 2016
  • First time allowed at least six runs in back-to-back games
  • First time allowed at least eight hits in three straight games
  • Second time allowed at least four extra-base hits two games in a row (also August 9-14, 2016)

And, sorry, we’ll cap it off with this #NotFunFact: Before Severino, the last Yankee to give up at least six earned runs and eight hits — including at least four for extra bases — in a game was Jeff Weaver in July 2002.

(AP)

Survive and advance
The Yankees avoided what would have been an demoralizing doubleheader sweep thanks to a 5-4 back-and-forth win in the night game of Saturday’s twinbill. There is no doubt that this team has the #FightingSpirit, especially compared to last year’s frustrating late-inning dumpster fire:

Yankees in Games Decided by One Run

  • 2018: Overall 17-11; Home 11-3
  • 2017: Overall 18-26; Home 11-9

Despite a shaky performance by CC Sabathia and a rare implosion from the middle relievers, Yankee pitchers on Saturday night held the Royals to just two hits in 12 at-bats with runners in scoring position while stranding 15 men on base. That’s the most men left on base by a Yankee opponent in a nine-inning game since the Red Sox stranded 16 in a 5-2 loss to the Yankee on August 30, 2011.

And when you factor in that Saturday’s game was a narrow victory, the number of men left on base becomes even more important — and rare. The last time Yankee pitchers stranded at least 15 guys in a nine-inning one-run win was July 25, 1992 against the Mariners. The pitchers in that game: Curt Young, Tim Burke, Rich Monteleone, Greg Cadaret, Steve Farr. (Yes, those guys all pitched for the Yankees in the same game.)

Greg Bird ignited the final rally of the game with a solo shot to lead off the eighth inning that knotted the score at 4-4. It was the first game-tying home run of his career, though he’s had his share of dramatic go-ahead homers in his career.

Aaron Hicks then capped the comeback a few batters later with a bases-loaded sacrifice fly that put the Yankees up 5-4. Hicks earns our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series for his heroics: he’s the first Yankee with a go-ahead bases-loaded sac fly in the seventh inning or later against the Royals since Bernie Williams on May 1, 1998 (hmmm … another #randominterestingstat).

Happ-y day
The Yankees finally did what they’re supposed to do as the second-best team in baseball — take games and series against bad teams. Sunday’s mostly stress-free 6-3 victory capped off another winning weekend in the Bronx, where they have dropped just one series all season (April 5-8 vs. Orioles).

J.A. Happ etched his name in the franchise record books when he stepped on the mound. He became the first guy to start a game for the Yankees and Blue Jays in same season since David Cone in 1995. Cone’s first start as a Bronx Bomber came exactly 23 years ago, on July 29, 1995 against the Twins.

Happ produced an impressive pinstriped debut, holding the Royals to one run on three hits in six innings. A couple #FunFacts to chew on for Happ:

  • The only other left-hander in the last 15 seasons to allow no more than one run and pitch at least six innings in his first game as a Yankee was Randy Johnson in 2005
  • Happ is the first lefty to pitch at least six innings and give up three hits or fewer in his Yankee debut since Jimmy Key in 1993

Aaron Hicks provided the muscle and sparked the offense with a monster game, going 3-for-3 with a homer, double, walk and two RBI. This was his fourth game in the cleanup spot this season, and in those four games he’s 6-for-11 with two dingers, a double, a triple, six walks and five RBI. We love #SmallSampleSizes.

Oh, and the Yankees are still looking for their first hit with the bases loaded since July 11.

7/26 to 7/29 Series Preview: Kansas City Royals

by Leave a Comment

(Jon Durr/Getty)

If the Yankees are going to start making moves in the division, they’re going to have to start beating up on bad teams. They’re 8-8 against the Orioles, Royals, and Rangers – the three worst teams in the American League – heading into this series, which isn’t going to cut it. But with ten of their next seventeen games coming against those teams, they have an opportunity to make up for lost ground.

The Royals are up first.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees visited Kansas City for a three-game set back in May, taking two of three. They outscored the Royals 20-9 in doing so, with contributions from most everyone that played in the series. Some notes:

  • Aaron Hicks hit an inside-the-park home run in the second game – his second of the season. It was the product of shaky defense by the Royals and hustle by Hicks, and it wasn’t even close. Check it out:

  • Sonny Gray had one of the best starts of his Yankees career in the third game, tossing 8 innings and allowing just four hits, one run, and one walk, while striking out 5. He threw first pitch strikes to 22 of 29 batters faced, and kept the ball on the ground, posting a 57.1% groundball rate.
  • The Yankees hit nine home runs in the series – Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez (twice), Giancarlo Stanton, Tyler Austin (twice), Miguel Andujar, and Austin Romine all went deep. And, this, in one of the least homer-friendly parks in baseball.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information.

Injury Report

The Royals have three starting pitchers (Jesse Hahn, Ian Kennedy, and Eric Skoglund), a reliever (Blaine Boyer), a utility infielder (Cheslor Cuthbert), and their best hitter (Jorge Soler) on the disabled list. None are expected back in time for this series.

Their Story So Far

Kansas City is 31-70 with a -192 run differential; for those of you keeping score at home, that’s the second-worst record in baseball (only Baltimore is worse) and the worst run differential by a comfortable margin. They’ve scored the fewest runs in baseball and allowed the most, and that’s not a great recipe for success. They’re bad in just about every way that a team can be bad.

The Lineup We Might See

Trades, promotions, demotions, and poor performances have forced Ned Yost to tinker with his lineup quite a bit this year. He seems to have settled on something along these lines of late, though:

  1. Whit Merrifield, 2B – .300/.369/.426, 5 HR, 19 SB
  2. Rosell Herrera, RF – .265/.298/.357, 0 HR, 1 SB
  3. Mike Moustakas, 3B – .249/.310/.468, 20 HR, 3 SB
  4. Salvador Perez, C – .227/.263/.412, 15 HR, 1 SB
  5. Lucas Duda, 1B – .247/.315/.405, 8 HR, 0 SB
  6. Jorge Bonifacio, DH – .236/.329/.403, 1 HR, 0 SB
  7. Alex Gordon, LF – .236/.312/.339, 6 HR, 4 SB
  8. Brian Goodwin, CF – .229/.337/.371, 3 HR, 3 SB
  9. Alcides Escobar, SS – .203/.253/.275, 3 HR, 5 SB

Adalberto Mondesi might get a start or two at either second or short, and Hunter Dozier should see time at first and/or third (most likely starting against Sabathia in place of Duda or Moustakas).

Junis. (Ed Zurga/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Jakob Junis

Junis started against the Yankees back on May 18, and was effective in the Royals victory. He tossed 5.1 IP, allowing 7 hits (all singles), 2 runs, and a walk, and struck out 3. Junis looked quite good overall through the beginning of June, posting a 3.62 ERA in his first 12 starts, with good strikeout (8.6 K/9) and walk (2.2 BB/9) rates. The wheels have fell off a bit since then, however, and he has an 8.42 ERA (8.00 FIP) in his last six starts.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/21) – 4.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K

Friday (7:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Brad Keller

Keller was a Rule 5 pick by the Royals over the off-season, after spending the first five seasons of his professional career in Arizona. He made the jump from Double-A to the majors this year, pitching out of the bullpen until late May. He transitioned to the rotation due to injuries to several starters, and has made nine starts so far. He has a 3.75 ERA and 3.57 FIP in those starts, which is good, as is his 54.8% groundball rate; his strikeout (5.8 K/9) and walk (4.1 BB/9) rates leave a great deal to be desired, though.

Keller – who will be celebrating his 23rd birthday on Friday – throws four pitches: a mid-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a high-80s change-up, and a mid-80s slider.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/22) – 7.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 8 K

Saturday (1:00 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Heath Fillmyer

The 24-year-old Fillmyer has served as the team’s long-reliever/swingman since making his big-league debut a month ago, and sports a shiny 2.82 ERA (153 ERA+) in 22.1 IP. And, like Keller, he has done so with lots of grounders (59.7%), and subpar strikeout (5.2 per 9) and walk (4.0 per nine) rates.

Fillmyer is primarily a three-pitch guy, with a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, and a mid-80s slider. He’ll also mix-in a sinker and a curve, but we’re talking one or two per game.

Last outing (vs. DET on 7/23) – 6.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST: RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Burch Smith

Smith, much like Keller, opened the season in the bullpen, and transitioned to the rotation; he was also a Rule 5 pick, out of the Rays organization. He has only made three starts, though, and was barely stretched out for the first two. It’s been a long journey to the majors for Smith, who missed all of 2015 and 2016 as a result of Tommy John surgery.

Smith is a three-pitch pitcher, featuring a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a low-80s change-up, and a big-time curveball in the high-70s. His curve is a true swing-and-miss offering.

Last outing (vs. DET on 7/24) – 6.1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K

The Bullpen

A few Royals bullpen rankings presented with limited commentary:

  • 25th in BB/9
  • 26th in WPA
  • 30th in ERA
  • 30th in FIP
  • 30th in K/9

And that’s with the stellar numbers of the since-traded Kelvin Herrera (1.05 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 0.7 BB/9) factored in. This is the worst bullpen in the majors, and it’s not particularly close.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Kansas City is the unfortunately confluence of bad and boring, with little in the way of standout players on either side of the ball. Merrifield is an exciting player, and Smith’s curveball is a thing of beauty. Otherwise, the story of this series will be dependent upon whether the Yankees can beat up on a bad team. That, and the strong likelihood that Zach Britton will make his Yankees debut.

Trade Deadline Rumors: Eovaldi, Hand, Moustakas, D’Backs

by Leave a Comment

Nasty Nate in your area. (Rich Schultz/Getty)

We are now three weeks away from the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline and the Manny Machado rumors have arrived. It feels like a foregone conclusion the Yankees will do something before the deadline. I’m not sure what, exactly, but I’d bet on adding a starting pitcher. Anyway, here’s the latest batch of trade deadline rumors.

Yankees scouting Eovaldi

The Yankees were among the teams with a scout on hand for Nathan Eovaldi’s most recent start, reports Marc Topkin. Eovaldi took a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Mets on Sunday and finished the afternoon with one hit allowed in seven shutout innings. He struck out nine. On one hand, that’s undeniably excellent. On the other hand, it was the Mets, so yeah.

Eovaldi, now 28, has a 3.35 ERA (4.16 FIP) with very good strikeout (24.3%), walk (3.3%), and ground ball (48.8%) rates in eight starts and 48.1 innings back from his second Tommy John surgery. He’s on a cheap ($2M) one-year contract and it is all but certain the Rays will trade him before the deadline. Tampa has Eovaldi using his cutter more, which could explain his effectiveness. The Yankees know Eovaldi well, if nothing else. He’s worth a longer look outside a rumor roundup setting. Stay tuned.

Yankees interested in Hand

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are among the teams with interest in lefty reliever Brad Hand. Hand is signed affordably through 2020 with a $10M club option for 2021. The Yankees have a very strong and deep bullpen already, but there’s always room for another quality reliever. Swap out Chasen Shreve for Hand and the bullpen would be even better.

Hand is probably the top reliever on the trade market right now and the price tag figures to be very high given his performance and contract. He’s not too dissimilar from Andrew Miller circa 2016. The Yankees had interest in him at last year’s deadline and adding another reliever does make some sense. Adding Hand won’t solve the rotation issues but he would make the Yankees better, and that’s the name of the game, getting better. Especially in a division race this tight.

Yankees, Blue Jays still discussing Happ

According to Buster Olney (subs. req’d), the Yankees and Blue Jays are “continuing conversations” about left-hander J.A. Happ. The two sides are said to be “haggling over the price tag.” I guess the Yankees have not been scared away by Happ’s recent performance. It’s not just his dud against the Yankees over the weekend. In his last four starts Happ has allowed 20 runs and 38 baserunners (and six homers) in 22.2 innings. He has a 4.44 ERA (3.97 FIP) for the season.

The Yankees are not prone to small sample size (over)reactions. They’re a big picture organization. That doesn’t mean they’ll ignore Happ’s recent struggles, but if they’re comfortable with the medicals and their scouts and analytical folks think this is just a bump in the road, they could pursue Happ anyway. The trade deadline pitching options don’t look all that appealing right now. Happ, even with his recent struggles, may be the best bet the rest of the season. I’m not surprised the Yankees are still involved.

Yankees considering Moustakas for first base

Just put anyone at first base how hard could it be. (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

The Yankees are considering longtime Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas for first base, reports Jon Morosi. This sounds more like an idea the Yankees are kicking around rather than a “the two teams are talking” rumor. Moustakas has played a handful of games at first base this year — he’d never played a position other than third prior to this season — and he’s on a cheap ($6.5M) contract.

Greg Bird is maybe kinda sorta starting to hit a bit — he is 7-for-29 (.241) with five walks (.371 OBP) in his last eight games and his at-bats have been much better — but he’s still hitting an underwhelming .203/.324/.398 (100 wRC+) overall. Moustakas is hitting a slightly better .251/.308/.464 (106 wRC+) overall, including .207/.270/.393 (77 wRC+) since the day Bird made his season debut. Plus he hasn’t played much first base at all. Like I’ve been saying, if Bird isn’t hitting by the All-Star break, go get a first baseman. An actual first baseman, preferably.

D’Backs, Rangers, Phillies scouting Yankees

The Diamondbacks, Rangers, and Phillies all had scouts watching Triple-A Scranton over the weekend, reports George King. The Reds and Royals continue to scout the Yankees as well. Most of the RailRiders’ best players (Brandon Drury, Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade) were in the big leagues at the time, but Billy McKinney is still down there, and over the weekend pitching prospects Justus Sheffield, Josh Rogers, and Chance Adams all started for Scranton.

The Rangers stink and are going to trade Cole Hamels before the trade deadline, so it makes sense that they’ve got eyes on the Yankees. What about the D’Backs and Phillies? They’re contenders! They’re not just contenders, they’re in first place! I suppose Arizona could be doing due diligence in case they collapse and decide to trade Patrick Corbin? Unless the Phillies make a young starter like Nick Pivetta or Zach Eflin (or Aaron Nola!) available, I’m not sure they match up well with the Yankees for a trade.

Trade Deadline Notes: Harvey, Happ, Ross, Royals, Tigers

by Leave a Comment

Harvey. (Getty)

Later today the Yankees and Blue Jays will continue their three-game weekend series with the middle game. That’s a 4:07pm ET start. Here are some trade deadline notes to check out in the meantime.

Harvey “not high” on Yankees’ list

The kinda maybe possibly good again Matt Harvey is “not high” on the Yankees’ list of trade targets, reports Jon Heyman. Heyman says that, among other things, the Yankees are worried about a “potential circus” that would follow Harvey’s return to New York. Yeah, it sure would create a media frenzy. That’s for sure. I’m sure the Yankees would happily live with the headache if Harvey were still a no-doubt ace, but that is no longer the case.

Harvey owns a 4.91 ERA (4.67 FIP) in 80.2 total innings this season, though he’s been better since being traded to the Reds, pitching to a 3.86 ERA (4.20 FIP) in 53.2 innings. He’s been especially good the last three times out, allowing only three runs with a 14/2 K/BB in 18.1 innings against contending teams (Cubs, Braves, Brewers). Jay Jaffe had a good breakdown of Harvey’s revival. Strip away the name and I don’t think the current version of Harvey generates much buzz as a trade candidate. Meh.

Yankees are “main player” for Happ

According to Heyman, the Yankees are a “main player” for J.A. Happ and he’s either at or near the top of their deadline shopping list. The Brewers and Mariners are said to have interest as well, and I’m sure other teams will enter the mix before the trade deadline. The Yankees will get (another) firsthand look at Happ later this afternoon, when he takes the mound at Rogers Centre in the middle game of this three-game series.

The 35-year-old Happ is sitting on a 4.03 ERA (3.64 FIP) after getting clobbered for seven runs in 5.2 innings against the Tigers last time out. Prior to that he had a more palatable 3.62 ERA (3.58 FIP) in 97 innings. I think Happ is the best available rental in a pretty crummy market. A quality southpaw who is familiar with the AL East would be a welcome addition to the rotation. The trade that sent Scott Kazmir from the Athletics to the Astros in 2015 seems like a decent trade benchmark. The A’s landed two top 20 organizational prospects (Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham) in that deal.

Yankees don’t have much interest in Ross

Ross. (Denis Poroy/Getty)

The Yankees do not have as much interest in Tyson Ross as they do other trade targets like Happ and Michael Fulmer, reports Lindsey Alder (subs. req’d). The 31-year-old Ross is on a dirt cheap one-year contract with the last place Padres and chances are he’ll be traded before the deadline. San Diego would be silly to keep him when they could turn him into a prospect or two. Rebuilding teams sign reclamation projects like Ross specifically so they can flip them for prospects.

So far this season Ross has a 3.78 ERA (4.31 FIP) in exactly 100 innings, though, like Happ, his last start was disaster (seven runs in five innings). Prior to that Ross had a 3.32 ERA (3.87 FIP) in 95 innings. His strikeout (21.4%) and ground ball (43.8%) rates aren’t nearly as good as they were before his 2016-17 arm problems. I see Ross as more of a secondary target a la Jaime Garcia last year. Someone to add for depth. Not someone you’re counting on to really make a difference, you know?

Reds, Tigers, Royals all scouting Yankees

The Reds, Tigers, and Royals have all been scouting the Yankees in recent weeks, according to George King. The Royals had a scout on hand Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday at Yankee Stadium while Reds had someone in the Bronx on Monday and Tuesday. Kansas City has also been scouting Double-A Trenton. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been covering the farm system thoroughly. Undoubtedly other teams are scouting the system as well.

I think it’s safe to assume the Tigers are doing their due diligence in advance of a potential Fulmer trade. The Reds have Harvey and Raisel Iglesias — would they move Luis Castillo? — while the Royals have Danny Duffy and Mike Moustakas, who I supposed could play first base. It might seem like a stretch that the Yankees would trade an MLB roster player(s) for any of those guys, but Jonathan Loaisiga started Monday and Domingo German started Tuesday. I don’t think the Yankees would make either off-limits. I’m not saying they should trade them. But they would in the right deal, for sure.