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Saturday Links: Prospects Rankings, DelPiano, Rule Changes

February 3, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Counting this one, there are only three more baseball-less weekends to go before Spring Training games begin. Can’t wait. Spring Training games are fun in their own way and, if you’re a Yankees fan, how can you not be excited right now? Anyway, here are some links and notes to check out.

Six Yankees on MLB.com’s top 100 prospects list

The crew at MLB.com released their annual top 100 prospects list last weekend. Angels RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, who is rookie eligible, sits in the top spot. He’s followed by Braves OF Ronald Acuna and Blue Jays 3B Vladimir Guerrero. The Yankees have six players in the top 100. Their rankings:

5. SS Gleyber Torres
44. OF Estevan Florial
48. LHP Justus Sheffield
65. 3B Miguel Andujar
74. RHP Albert Abreu
75. RHP Chance Adams

Former Yankees prospects Athletics SS Jorge Mateo (No. 72) and White Sox OF Blake Rutherford (No. 98) both made the top 100 as well. As always, MLB.com’s scouting grades and reports are free, so make sure you check those out. Fresh and updated info on all the top prospects in the farm system.

Yankees rank second in Baseball America’s farm system rankings

Earlier this week Baseball America released their annual organizational rankings, and they say the Yankees have the second best farm system in baseball behind the Braves. Keith Law said the same thing. “Atlanta has more close-to-the-majors pitching prospects, but in pure numbers, no one can match the Yankees’ seemingly endless waves of power arms. Gleyber Torres and Estevan Florial give the team a pair of high-upside position prospects,” says the subscriber-only report.

I have to say, I am pretty blown away the Yankees still have such a highly ranked farm system. Within the last 12 months they have graduated Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier, Jordan Montgomery, and Chad Green to the big leagues (and, technically, Tyler Wade), and traded away Mateo, Rutherford, James Kaprielian, Dustin Fowler, and Jorge Guzman. Ian Clarkin and Zack Littell aren’t nobodies either. That’s a ton of talent leaving the system! Leaving for good reasons of course, but still leaving. And yet, the Yankees still have a top tier farm system. Pretty awesome.

Yankees hire DelPiano

The Yankees have hired former Marlins vice president of player development Marc DelPiano, report Jon Heyman and Dan Martin. He is joining the pro scouting department. The Marlins let DelPiano and three other high level executives go a few weeks ago, after the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group took control. Interestingly enough, all four executives wound up with winning teams. Smart teams hiring smart people.

DelPiano, 50, played minor league ball briefly in the 1980s and is a veteran executive. He’s worked for the Expos, Marlins (twice), Red Sox, and Pirates as everything from a scout to a farm system director to special assistant to the general manager. Given his resume, I imagine DelPiano is getting a high level job, not a scouting position. The Yankees shifted Kevin Reese from director of pro scouting to senior director of player development back in November, so maybe DelPiano is Reese’s replacement as the pro scouting chief? We’ll find out (eventually).

MLB makes new pace-of-play proposal

According to Beth Harris, commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed MLB has presented a new pace-of-play proposal to the MLBPA. Under the new proposal, a pitch clock will not be implemented in 2018, and it won’t be implemented in 2019 either as long as the average time of game is under two hours and 55 minutes this season. (It was three hours and eight minutes last year. Hasn’t been below two hours and 55 minutes since 2010.) There are other changes in the proposal that would be phased in over time. I imagine those have to do with mound visits.

The MLBPA has already flat out rejected several pitch clock proposals and they’ve taken a hard line in pace-of-play talks this winter. MLB can unilaterally implement rule changes this year, but only last year’s proposal, which includes a 20-second pitch clock. It seems to me that, more than anything, Manfred and MLB are setting up the MLBPA to look like the bad guy here. This is a “we tried” proposal they know the union will reject, so when they implement a pitch clock, they can point to the MLBPA and say they made multiple offers. Whatever. I am pro anything that eliminates downtime within a game. Less standing around, please.

MLB will record dugout phone conversations

In an effort to combat sophisticated sign stealing, MLB is installing new dugout phones and will record all conversations, reports Ken Rosenthal. I’m sure you remember the Red Sox getting busted for stealing signs using Apple watches and information relayed from their video room. The Yankees were also fined for improper use of a dugout phone. I have no idea what they did, but they did something, enough to warrant a fine. Recording conversations figures to serve as a deterrent.

Stealing signs is not against the rules. I have no problem whatsoever with stealing signs. In fact, I encourage it. If a team doesn’t hide their signs well, too bad. That’s their problem. I am completely cool with stealing signs on the field — the runner at second looking in at the catcher, things like that — once it goes off the field and involves non-uniformed personnel, that’s a problem. That goes beyond sportsmanship, whether it’s an Apple watch or a dude with binoculars or whatever. MLB seems to agree. Who knew dugout phones were such a big deal?

Extra-innings rule may be coming to All-Star Game, Spring Training

According to Ronald Blum, MLB has proposed added an extra-inning tiebreaker rule to the All-Star Game and Spring Training games. Under the proposal, a leadoff runner would be put at second base starting with the 11th inning in the All-Star Game. The runner would be put at second in the 10th inning of spring games. Also, spring games would be capped at ten innings under the proposal. I can’t remember the last spring game to go longer than ten innings, but whatever.

These tiebreaker rules are pretty terrible — they were used during the World Baseball Classic last year and they destroyed the vibe of the game (the first batter bunted the runner up and the second batter was intentionally walked to set up the double play every single time) — and I hope they never make their way into meaningful games. The All-Star Game and Spring Training though? Who cares. Seems like an easy concession for the MLBPA to make. Agree to the tiebreaker rules in the All-Star Game and Spring Training, and ask for something in return.

Florial, Sheffield, Adams among 2018 Spring Training invitees

February 2, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to Tampa in one week and five days, and earlier this morning, the Yankees announced their list of non-roster Spring Training invitees. The list of 20 non-roster players includes some of the team’s best prospects. Here’s the list:

PITCHERS (11)
RHP Chance Adams
RHP Cody Carroll
RHP Cale Coshow
RHP Raynel Espinal
RHP J.P. Feyereisen
RHP David Hale
RHP Brady Lail
LHP Wade LeBlanc
LHP Justus Sheffield
RHP Dillon Tate
RHP Taylor Widener

CATCHERS (4)
Francisco Diaz
Erik Kratz
Chace Numata
Jorge Saez

INFIELDERS (4)
Danny Espinosa
Kyle Holder
Jace Peterson
Nick Solak

OUTFIELDERS (1)
Estevan Florial

As a reminder, all players on the 40-man roster will be in big league camp automatically. That includes top prospects like Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Domingo Acevedo, Albert Abreu, and Thairo Estrada. Ditto the no longer prospect eligible Clint Frazier. The 40-man roster is full, so the Yankees will have 60 players in camp total.

Hale, Kratz, Espinosa, and Peterson all signed minor league contracts in recent weeks. Everyone else is a product of the farm system. The only real surprise is Espinal, a 26-year-old righty who had an unreal minor league season a year ago, throwing 74.1 relief innings with a 1.09 ERA (2.23 FIP) and great strikeout (33.5%) and walk (5.4%) rates. He topped out at Double-A Trenton. Seems like Espinal impressed enough to get an invite to camp. Good for him.

Assuming everyone stays healthy and there are no surprise trades, the Yankees have three Opening Day roster spots available: second base, third base, and last bullpen spot. I imagine the out of options Chasen Shreve has a leg up on the final bullpen spot. Torres, Andujar, Estrada, Espinosa, Peterson, Ronald Torreyes, and Tyler Wade are the primary competitors for the second and third base jobs.

When I put together my non-roster players preview a few weeks ago, I came up with 20 names. Espinal, Widener, and Coshow were the only actual non-roster players I missed. They take the place of Stephen Tarpley, James Reeves, and mystery first baseman yet to be signed on my projected non-roster list. Not too shabby on my part.

Thoughts on Keith Law’s top 100 prospects list

January 25, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Spring Training is a few weeks away and that means we’re in top 100 season. Baseball America released their annual top 100 prospects list earlier this week, and a few days ago, Keith Law published his top 100 list as well (1-50, 51-100, just missed). It’s all behind the Insider paywall.

Braves OF Ronald Acuna sits in the top spot on Law’s top 100, just like Baseball America’s top 100. Blue Jays 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Padres SS Fernandez Tatis Jr. are second and third, respectively. Lots of good sons of former big leaguers in the minors right now. (Bo Bichette is a top prospect too.) Here are the Yankees prospects in Law’s top 100:

5. SS Gleyber Torres
16. LHP Justus Sheffield
54. 3B Miguel Andujar
73. RHP Freicer Perez
99. RHP Albert Abreu
Just Missed: RHP Domingo Acevedo and OF Estevan Florial

Athletics SS Jorge Mateo (No. 39) and RHP James Kaprielian (No. 56) both made the top 100 as well. They went to the A’s in the Sonny Gray trade. As a reminder, OF Clint Frazier exceeded the 130 at-bat rookie limit by four at-bats last season, so he is no longer rookie (or prospect) eligible. He would’ve surely made Law’s (and Baseball America’s) top 100 lists had he still been eligible. Anyway, I have some thoughts on Law’s list and the Yankees’ top prospects in general.

1. Let’s talk about Gleyber’s power. There’s a difference of opinion about Torres’ power these days. Law’s write-up says Torres projects to “probably just 10-15 homers a year,” which is below-average pop. Especially these days with the juiced ball. Baseball America and MLB.com both slap a 55 on Gleyber’s future power, which is a tick above-average on the 20-80 scouting scale. Generally speaking, 55 power projects to about 18-22 homers per season. Maybe a little more in this homer happy era. Either way, Law is lower on Torres’ long-term power than Baseball America or MLB.com, which doesn’t mean one or the other is wrong. They could both be wrong! It just means there’s a difference of opinion. In his limited time last season Torres hit seven homers in 235 plate appearances as a 20-year-old in Double-A and Triple-A, which is damn impressive. These days it seems like young players are coming up and hitting for more power than expected almost instantly, and it’s not just the Gary Sanchezes and Cody Bellingers and Aaron Judges. Guys like Tyler Naquin came up and started smacking homers. Based on that and the whole Yankee Stadium thing, I’d take the over on 10-15 homers annually from Gleyber.

2. Setting the record straight on Andujar’s defense. The Yankees opted to keep Andujar in Triple-A during the second half last year to work on his defense even though they needed another bat and had an opening at DH. There was a clear path to regular big league playing time. Instead, the Yankees left Andujar in Triple-A so he could work on his defense in games that don’t count. That seems to have created the narrative that Andujar is bad in the field. That’s not true. He’s not Brooks Robinson, but he’s a fine third baseman. “He has a rifle of an arm and has improved his footwork to the point that he should be an average defender at third,” wrote Law. More than anything, the Yankees kept Andujar down to correct some bad habits in the field. He tends to show off his arm, which robs him of accuracy, and there are times he’ll rush and let the ball play him. Andujar’s defensive tools are fine. He has plenty of arm and he has the quick twitch reactions needed for the hot corner. He just needs to iron some things out. This isn’t like Marcus Thames playing third base. The Yankees aren’t forcing something that obviously won’t work.

3. Perez has at least one big fan. I’m pretty sure you’re not going to see Freicer Perez on another top 100 list this spring. Law calls him a “potential front-line starter” who “pitches at 94-98 now and shows a plus curveball and projectable slider along with a changeup that he’s still learning to use.” I haven’t seen a report that glowing basically anywhere. Everything I’ve heard and read says Perez’s secondary pitches are still iffy. It’s possible Law caught him on a good day(s) and/or received favorable reports. If someone saw it though, it’s in there, and it’s a matter of getting to it consistently. Pretty much every tall Yankees pitching prospect — Perez is 6-foot-8 — gets compared to Dellin Betances at some point, though that’s unfair. When one of these guys goes out to the mound with 98+ and that breaking ball, we can talk about the Dellin comparison. Let’s let Freicer Perez be Freicer Perez. Law’s scouting report is glowing, and there’s no doubt Perez is a quality prospect even if you aren’t this high on him. Not too bad for a kid who signed for $10,000 back in the day.

4. Let’s talk about who is not on the top 100. Florial is going to be a top 100 prospect pretty much everywhere else and the same is probably true for Chance Adams as well. I’m not a big Adams guy — I think he’s probably a reliever long-term (a good reliever, I should add) because his fastball is true and he’s been unable to prevent upper level hitters from getting the ball airborne (41.4% grounders in Triple-A last year) — and I wouldn’t have him in my personal top 100 list, so I don’t have a problem with Law excluding him. As for Florial, Law explains it’s all about pitch recognition. “On raw tools, Florial would go somewhere in the top half of the list. Maybe in the top 25 … His pitch recognition, however, is a huge problem … in large part because he does not seem to recognize changing speeds at all,” says the write-up. Last year’s 31.1% strikeout rate — it was 35.8% against mostly Double-A caliber and above pitchers in the Arizona Fall League — doesn’t lie. The kid is super talented, but he has some holes in his swing and issues with breaking balls. The Yankees love Florial and expect him to get better as he gains experience after not playing a ton as an amateur. Until he gets better though, he’ll be a very high risk prospect. High reward! But also high risk. And besides, Law’s lists always seem to generate a ton of outrage no matter what. The focus is on Florial not making the top 100 rather than Perez making it, or Sheffield ranking way higher than he’ll rank anywhere else, or Acevedo being a borderline top 100 guy.

Yankees land six on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list

January 22, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Spring Training is three weeks away and that means it is top 100 prospect season. All the usual publications will be updating their lists in the coming days and weeks.

Earlier today the gang at Baseball America released their 2018 top 100 prospects list, which is topped by Braves OF Ronald Acuna. Angels RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani is second and Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. is third. Six Yankees made the top 100:

6. SS Gleyber Torres
38. OF Estevan Florial
41. LHP Justus Sheffield
59. 3B Miguel Andujar
77. RHP Albert Abreu
81. RHP Chance Adams

Athletics SS Jorge Mateo (No. 64), Marlins RHP Jorge Guzman (No. 87), and Athletics OF Dustin Fowler (No. 88) all made the top 100 as well. Mateo and Fowler went to the A’s in the Sonny Gray trade, and Guzman went to the Marlins in the Giancarlo Stanton trade. White Sox OF Blake Rutherford, the headliner in the David Robertson/Tommy Kahnle/Todd Frazier trade, did not make the top 100.

I always find it amusing when the prospects are in different orders in the top 100 list and the team top ten list. When Baseball America posted their top ten Yankees prospects last month, Adams was ahead of Andujar and Abreu. Now he’s behind them in the top 100. Such is life when one person ranks team prospects and a group of people rank top 100 lists. That’s okay. Differences of opinion are good.

Anyway, the Braves have eight top 100 prospects and are the only team with more than the Yankees. Considering Mateo, Guzman, and Fowler came out of the system — Mateo and Fowler were originally signed/drafted by the Yankees, Guzman came over in the Brian McCann trade — that’s some collection of Yankees-bred talent in the top 100. It doesn’t even include OF Clint Frazier, who exceeded the rookie threshold by four at-bats last year and is no longer prospect eligible. Good times in the farm system.

Sorting out the Yankees’ potential non-roster Spring Training invitees for 2018

January 22, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Pitchers and catchers report to Tampa three weeks from tomorrow, and at some point soon, likely within the next two weeks, the Yankees will announce their 2018 Spring Training invitees. These are non-40-man roster players who get a chance to come to big league camp to strut their stuff. Some non-roster invitees are top prospects, some are middling prospects, and some are veteran journeymen trying to hang on.

Generally speaking, teams bring 20-25 non-roster players to Spring Training each year. Last year the Yankees initially invited 23 non-roster players before adding a few more within the first few days of camp. It was a World Baseball Classic year, so they needed extra bodies around while guys were away playing for their country. This is a normal year though, so 20-25 non-roster players. That sounds about right.

The Yankees still have a strong farm system despite the recent trades and graduations, and many of their top prospects are already on the 40-man roster, so they’ll be in camp automatically. Four of MLB.com’s top seven Yankees prospects are on the 40-man, so yeah. Spring Training is a great time to prospect watch. We’ll get a chance to see pretty much all the team’s best prospects at some point, 40-man roster or otherwise.

So, with Spring Training inching closer and non-roster invitees soon to be announced, now is a good time to preview the non-40-man roster players the Yankees could bring to camp this year. Last year I predicted 24 non-roster players and 20 of the 24 actually got the call, so go me. Hopefully I’ll have a similar success rate this year. Anyway, let’s get to the potential non-roster players.

Catchers

Every team brings lots of catchers to Spring Training each year because hey, who is supposed to catch all those bullpen sessions? That’s really all there is to it. There are lots of pitchers in camp who need regular work to get up to speed, and teams can’t overload three or four catchers early in camp. Imagine making Gary Sanchez squat four hours a day to catch bullpens before games even start? Nope. Not gonna happen. The Yankees will again bring plenty of non-roster catchers to camp.

My Prediction: Francisco Diaz, Erik Kratz, Chace Numata, Jorge Saez. Kratz re-signed on a minor league deal a few weeks ago and as a big league veteran who spent September with the Yankees and traveled with the team in the postseason, it’s safe to assume he’ll be in camp as a non-roster player. Diaz and Saez are organizational depth catchers who were in camp last year. (Diaz re-signed as a minor league free agent earlier this winter.) The Yankees picked up Numata a few weeks ago and given the fact he has Double-A experience, it makes sense that he’d get the call for Spring Training. Sanchez, Austin Romine, and Kyle Higashioka are on the 40-man, making it seven catchers total for Spring Training.

Infielders

The infield mix this spring should be pretty interesting. The Yankees have openings at second and third bases, and while youngsters like Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar may be the favorites for those jobs, I have to think the team will cover their bases and bring in plenty of options. Torres, Andujar, Tyler Wade, Thairo Estrada, and Ronald Torreyes are all on the 40-man already. Those are your top five second/third base candidates.

On the prospect front, Nick Solak strikes me as a logical non-roster player given his status as a recent high draft pick (second round in 2016) and success at Double-A last season (.286/.344/.429 for a 112 wRC+), even though it came in a 30-game cameo. My hunch is Kyle Holder will get some non-roster time as well. He’s another recent high draft pick (supplemental first round in 2015) who had a good-ish year in 2017. The Yankees like him enough that they sent him to the Arizona Fall League. I think Holder gets the invite as basically the last infielder and is among the first cuts.

Younger lower level infield prospects like Hoy Jun Park, Dermis Garcia, Diego Castillo, and Oswaldo Cabrera aren’t non-roster material. Big league camp isn’t the appropriate place for them at this point in their careers. The Yankees will, however, bring another first baseman to camp. Greg Bird and Tyler Austin are the only 40-man players at the position now. The Yankees tried to re-sign Ji-Man Choi, who recently signed with the Brewers. I imagine they’ll target another Triple-A first baseman. Looking at the list of free agents … maybe Tyler Moore? We’ll see.

I also expect the Yankees to bring in another veteran infielder on a minor league deal. They’ve already signed Jace Peterson, but remember how many infield spots they have to fill. There’s second, third, and the backup spot at the MLB level. Then there’s second, third, short, and the backup spot in Triple-A. That’s seven infielders. Right now the Yankees have Torres, Andujar, Wade, Estrada, Torreyes, and Peterson for six of those seven spots. So yeah, another minor league contract infielder is coming.

My Prediction: Holder, Solak, Peterson, an infielder yet to be signed, and a first baseman yet to be signed. If the Yankees don’t sign a first baseman — that would really surprise me, but I suppose it’s not impossible — Ryan McBroom would be the third Spring Training first baseman almost by default. Billy McKinney, who is on the 40-man and started playing first in the Arizona Fall League, also figures to see time at the position.

Outfielders

Last year the Yankees invited two non-roster outfielders to camp: Clint Frazier and Dustin Fowler. Frazier, assuming he isn’t traded between now and reporting date, is on the 40-man and will be in camp automatically. Fowler is with the A’s. The Yankees are overloaded with outfielders at the moment, so they have more than enough bodies to cover all those innings during Grapefruit League play.

Now, that said, the Yankees tend to bring their very best prospects to camp each season, which means Estevan Florial is a good bet to receive a non-roster invite. He went to the Futures Game last year, finished the season with a quick Double-A cameo, and went to the Arizona Fall League. And he is one of the 100 or so best prospects in baseball. Even though he turned only 20 in November, Florial is sufficiently top prospecty enough for a non-roster invite at this point of his career.

My Prediction: Florial. That’s it. Other outfield prospects like Isiah Gilliam, Rashad Crawford, and Alex Palma are a no. Keep in mind the Yankees have nine outfielders on the 40-man at the moment: Frazier, McKinney, Jabari Blash, Jake Cave, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. Peterson and Wade can also play the outfield. The Yankees are plenty covered.

Right-handers

The Yankees have more high-end young pitching in the farm system than at any point in the last 10-15 years. One small problem: Most of it is in the low minors. Teenagers like Matt Sauer, Luis Medina, Roansy Contreras, and Deivi Garcia aren’t coming to big league camp. They don’t belong there. They’re not ready for it. Even the Single-A guys in their early-20s like Freicer Perez and Taylor Widener won’t get invited. It’s not their time. Clarke Schmidt, last year’s first round pick, is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so he won’t get a non-roster invite. There’s no point.

Even ruling out the generally inexperienced lower level guys, the Yankees have no shortage of quality right-handed pitching prospects to invite to camp. Chief among them: Chance Adams and Dillon Tate. Adams was in camp last season and could be the first guy called up when a sixth starter is needed this season, so of course he’s coming to camp. Tate was not a non-roster guy last year, but now that he has some Double-A time under his belt, it stands to reason he’ll get the invite.

On the bullpen side, I think J.P. Feyereisen will return to big league camp this spring — he was in camp last year — even though he didn’t have a great 2017 season and was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. He’s someone who could find himself in the big leagues rather quickly if he starts the season well and the Yankees have a need. The Yankees will want the new coaching staff to get to know him. Same with Cody Carroll, last year’s breakout relief prospect, who finished the season in Double-A and dominated in the Arizona Fall League.

My Prediction: Adams, Carroll, Feyereisen, Tate, Brady Lail, and a minor league contract guy yet to be signed. I get the feeling a depth arm signing is coming. As for Lail, he was a non-roster player each of the last two years, so the Yankees like him. Maybe they don’t like him as much now after a tough Triple-A season last year (5.17 ERA and 4.76 FIP), but I’m going to play it safe and say he gets another invite. There are always innings to be soaked up. Reminder: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, and Jonathan Loaisiga are all on the 40-man roster. They’ll be in camp. I’m looking forward to seeing Johnny Lasagna. Moreso than another other non-40-man prospect this spring.

Left-handers

Realistically, there’s only one worthwhile left-handed pitching prospect in the organization: Justus Sheffield. Sheffield is the Yankees’ top pitching prospect overall and he was in camp as a non-roster player last year, so of course he’ll be back this year. He made only two appearances totaling 3.2 innings last spring. I’d bet on a little more action this time around.

James Reeves and Stephen Tarpley are the two other non-40-man southpaws worth a mention. Reeves was actually in camp as a non-roster player last spring, but he suffered an elbow injury early on and didn’t pitch. Once healthy, he had a 1.96 ERA (2.18 FIP) with 26.6% strikeouts and 4.7% walks in 46 innings, and he reached Double-A. Reeves has a classic low arm slot left-on-left matchup profile …

… the kind of profile that seems to be dying out around baseball, but the Yankees like him enough to bring him to camp last spring, and after he season he just had, I expect him to be back in big league camp this year. As for Tarpley, he had an unreal 2017 season, throwing 41 innings with a 0.88 ERA (2.85 FIP) and a strong strikeout rate (26.9%) but a not-so-strong walk rate (11.5%). The numbers are good, but Tarpley went unpicked in the Rule 5 Draft last month, and teams usually gobble up any left-hander they think has a chance to be useful. Hmmm.

My Prediction: Sheffield, Reeves, Tarpley, and Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc is on a minor league contract with an invite to camp, so he’ll be there. I think Tarpley gets an invite because the Yankees are short on 40-man roster lefties — the only southpaws on the 40-man are Aroldis Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, CC Sabathia, and Chasen Shreve — and clubs generally like to bring in plenty of lefties just to take inventory. See who could be an option at some point, you know?

* * *

Putting it all together, we come away with 20 non-roster players. Here is the breakdown:

Catchers (4): Diaz, Kratz, Numata, Saez
Infielders (5): Holder, Solak, Peterson, mystery infielder, mystery first baseman
Outfielders (1): Florial
Right-handers (6): Adams, Carroll, Feyereisen, Lail, Tate, mystery minor league signing
Left-handers (4): Reeves, Sheffield, Tarpley, LeBlanc

That’s probably not enough players. Last year the Yankees had 23 non-roster players initially before adding a few others during the first days of camp. They had 26 non-roster players in camp in both 2015 and 2016. My total of 20 potential non-roster players is light. There will be a few more players in camp.

Like I said, the Yankees are almost certainly not done signing journeymen like Kratz, Peterson, and LeBlanc to minor league deals. The Yankees had five veterans (Choi, Jason Gurka, Ruben Tejada, Donovan Solano, Pete Kozma) on minor league deals in camp last spring, for reference. A few more signings are coming and will get the non-roster list over 20 names.

Also, it’s entirely possible the Yankees will be more open to bringing lower level prospects to camp this spring. Maybe they let Donny Sands catch some bullpens, or give Park a taste of big league life, or let someone like Perez or Widener air it out for a few innings to showcase them as trade chips. Those 20 names above are the core non-roster players. A few minor minor league signings and a surprise prospect or two (like Daniel Camarena last year) figure to round out this year’s crop of invitees.

Astros trade for Gerrit Cole (for real this time)

January 13, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

10:20pm ET: Jerry Crasnick says the Yankees made Torres, Andujar, Justus Sheffield, and Estevan Florial off-limits during trade talks with the Pirates. They were willing to trade Frazier or Chance Adams for Cole, but not both.

7:12pm ET: According to multiple reports, the Astros have traded for Gerrit Cole. For real this time. Headed the other way are right-handers Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, and prospects Colin Moran and Jason Martin. Musgrove and Feliz are big league relievers who might be able to start. MLB.com ranks Moran and Martin as the No. 5 and 15 prospects in Houston’s system, respectively.

The Yankees had been connected to Cole for weeks, but the Pirates reportedly insisted on Gleyber Torres, and that was never going to happen. Brian Cashman & Co. wanted to build a package around Clint Frazier which, as J.J. Cooper noted, would’ve been better than what Pittsburgh actually got from the Astros. Jon Heyman says the Pirates wanted Miguel Andujar as well, and the two sides were never close to a deal.

With Cole off the board, the Yankees figure to move on to other pitcher trade targets, such as Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer, or Patrick Corbin. They’ve been connected to all those guys this offseason. Clearly the Yankees want a potential impact pitcher, not just a depth arm. That said, they have five starters already, plus some nice depth arms, so another pitcher isn’t imperative.

Sorting out the Yankees’ current rotation depth chart

January 11, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

If the Yankees get their way, they will go into Spring Training with six viable big league starters for five rotation spots. They’ve been trying to add a starter to a group that already includes Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, and Jordan Montgomery. And not just a depth arm, either. They’ve been after guys like Gerrit Cole, Michael Fulmer, and Chris Archer. The Yankees want impact.

Of course, even if the Yankees get that impact pitcher, they’re probably going to end up using more than six starters this coming season. That’s baseball. Last season the Yankees used eleven different starting pitchers, right at the MLB average of 11.6 starters. The last team to use as few as six starters in a single season is the 2013 Tigers. The 2003 Mariners are the last team to get through a season using only five starters. Think we’ll ever see that again?

The Yankees have five starters at the moment, so while they would like to add another high-end starter, they’re not desperate. They can wait out the market until the price drops to their liking. As for their depth starters, well those guys are going to come from the farm system, and the Yankees have some quality arms slated to begin the season in Triple-A. Here are the team’s No. 6-10 starters according to their 2018 ZiPS projections:

6. Chance Adams: +1.4 WAR in 132.2 innings
7. Domingo German: +1.0 WAR in 113.1 innings
8. Domingo Acevedo: +0.7 WAR in 117.1 innings
9. Justus Sheffield: +0.6 WAR in 99 innings
10. Luis Cessa: +0.3 WAR in 115.2 innings

Being able to stash two +1 WAR pitchers in Triple-A for emergencies is a pretty nice luxury. (I’m higher on Cessa than basically everyone, so I think it’s more like three +1 WAR pitchers in Triple-A, but ZiPS says what ZiPS says.) Lots of teams will go into the new season with a +1 WAR guy slated to be their fifth starter, hoping they won’t have to dip into the replacement level fodder sitting in the minors.

Teams do not base their rotation depth charts on ZiPS, however. Real live depth charts are based not only on the team’s internal statistical projections — yes, teams develop their own projections — but also scouting reports, development goals, and the 40-man roster. Oftentimes the spot starter decision will be made for the team. Who lines up to pitch that day? Okay, well, he’s getting the ball then. It happens all the time. A few thoughts on the rotation depth chart.

1. Do the Yankees consider Adams ready? Last season, they did not. At least not enough to justify putting him on the 40-man roster two years earlier than necessary. The Yankees wanted Adams to meet some developmental goals in the minors before bringing him to the Bronx, which is why those midseason spot starts when to Cessa and Bryan Mitchell and whoever else.

Adams put in close to a full season at Triple-A last year, and he did well superficially: 2.89 ERA (3.76 FIP) with 22.3% strikeouts and 9.3% walks in 115.1 innings. Those numbers usually do not tell the entire story, however. The Yankees may want Adams to, say, improve his changeup. Or get more comfortable pitching lefties inside. Or do a better job locating his fastball from the stretch. That sorta stuff determines MLB readiness more than stats.

I expected Adams to make his MLB debut last season, and if you’d have told me in March he wouldn’t, I would’ve assumed an injury was involved. Instead, the Yankees wanted Adams to continue working on some things in Triple-A. Has he improved enough to get the call this year? If not, how long until that happens, assuming he isn’t traded before Opening Day? When it comes to Adams being an MLB option, the numbers tell one story. The Yankees’ actions tell another.

2. Acevedo and Sheffield aren’t rotation options yet. Unless the Yankees manage to get to August or even September without needing their eighth or ninth starter, I don’t think Acevedo and Sheffield are really eighth and ninth on the depth chart, as ZiPS suggests. Acevedo made two Triple-A starts last year and spent most of the summer in Double-A. Sheffield spent the season at Double-A and missed several weeks with an oblique injury.

Based on the Adams (and Severino and Montgomery) precedent, both Acevedo and Sheffield are going to get Triple-A time before the Yankees are ready to bring them to the show. Acevedo is on the 40-man roster, so perhaps he gets called up as a shuttle arm or emergency starter or something, but I think the plan is to give him a bunch of innings in Triple-A so he can continue working on his breaking ball and command. Sheffield isn’t on the 40-man and has yet to throw even 130 innings in a season. The Yankees will stick to their development plan with him. It’ll probably be a few months before these two are realistic big league options.

3. Like it or not, Cessa is going to keep getting chances. Like I said, I’m a Cessa fan. I like his velocity, his array of secondary pitches, and his athleticism. Does that mean I think he’ll be an impact starter? Of course not. I think the tools are there for him to be a solid fourth starter, the kinda guy who gets about $10M a year in free agency. At the same time, I know I am in the minority. Cessa has a 4.49 ERA (5.58 FIP) in 106.1 MLB innings, so yeah.

Clearly, there’s something the Yankees like about Cessa, because he keeps getting chances. He joined the rotation late in 2016 after Nathan Eovaldi got hurt, and he drew spot starts last year when Sabathia’s knee acted up. Cessa can start, he can relieve, and he’s on the 40-man and optionable. Maybe the Yankees don’t like him as much as me. They probably don’t. But Cessa is a viable depth arm and he’s only 25, so the Yankees are going to continue giving him opportunities to see if something clicks. Maybe it clicks in relief, ultimately. Either way, I think Cessa is the de facto sixth starter right now, regardless of the ZiPS projections.

4. Mystery starters are coming. Who had Caleb Smith making starts at midseason last year? Or Cessa and Chad Green two years ago? Or Chase Whitley in 2014? These unexpected call-ups happen all the time and for all different reasons. Smith was having an exceptional Triple-A season and impressed enough in a long relief outing to get a start. Green was throwing the snot out of the ball for the RailRiders two years ago. Whitley handled the reliever-to-starter conversion better than anyone expected.

These surprise starters come with the territory during a long 162-game season. Who will be the random minor leaguer who ends up making some starts this summer? My money is on Brady Lail, but don’t sleep on Nestor Cortes. He’ll be in camp as a Rule 5 Draft pick with the Orioles, though if he comes back, he could get a look. That’s basically what happened with Smith last year. He was a Rule 5 Draft guy with the Cubs, came back to the Yankees, then got called up. Point is, we can put together this carefully thought out rotation depth chart, then some random minor leaguer will barf all over it.

* * *

Rotation depth tends to disappear quickly. As soon as you think you have it, you don’t. Guys get hurt, guys underperform, things never go according to plan. That’s why the Yankees are looking to add a high-end starter. The more the better. I have some concerns about the current rotation given last year’s workloads, but I’m also comfortable with Cessa and German as the sixth and seventh starters, especially with Adams waiting behind them. At the same time, if the Yankees want to add more arms for depth, I am all for it.

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