Jacoby Ellsbury Archives - Page 3 of 37

The Limited Future of Jacoby Ellsbury

February 17, 2019 by Matt Imbrogno

Remember “Band of Brothers,” the HBO miniseries based on Stephen Ambrose’s book of the same name? Hopefully you do, because it was a fantastic production that was at times gripping, touching, and devastating. I mention this because when I think of Jacoby Ellsbury, I think of a character from Band of Brothers: Private Webster.

In the series’s fifth episode, Webster is wounded during combat in the Netherlands. He does not appear in episodes six or seven, only returning in episode eight, after the titular band has seen their most harrowing action of the war during the Battle of the Bulge. Webster returns to a company very unfamilar to him as many of the men he trained and fought with had died or been wounded during his absence. At the beginning of the episode, he seems without place among his comrades. While the circumstances are obviously much less dire here–winning baseball games vs. beating the Nazis–this lack of place among a group is what makes me think of the mostly absent outfielder.

Given that the Yankees have two elite players in their outfield/DH rotation–Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton–a near elite player in Aaron Hicks, and a perfectly capable left fielder in Brett Gardner, things are not exactly open for Ellsbury to take a spot, if and when he comes off the disabled list where he will start the season. He even hits from the same side as Gardner, making it impossible for the two to be platooned. His injuries also are likely to prevent him from playing any more center field in his career. This is all without mentioning the fact that the Yankees are likely to go with a three-man bench, leaving even less room for him. I even left him out of my post from last week about said three-man bench. There is no place for him.

Keeping Ellsbury is almost a non-starter. There is no room for him on the team anymore besides his salary. Good for him and his agent that he was able to milk this deal from the Yankees, but his contract will go down as one of Brian Cashman’s worst. I don’t begrudge Ellsbury for his injuries or even his performance and anyone that does is slightly cruel. It’s regrettable that things turned out this way for him, even if we saw it coming, and I’m sure his professional and personal pride have been greatly affected by all this.

Trading Ellsbury is an option, but it’s hardly a desirable one. It would have to be a bad contract for bad contract swap as Mike suggested and that sorta defeats the purpose of getting rid of a less-than-useful player making big money.

One way or another, the Yankees are going to be on the hook for big money and the best thing to do is just cut Ellsbury. It is the most logical option and if other teams can do it, the Yankees should, too. I used to preach that the Yankees–or any team, really–shouldn’t be in the business of paying a player to not play for them, but that needs to be on a case-by-case basis. Ellsbury is, sadly, the perfect case for this.

While Private Webster is eventually folded back into the company after a few missions in episode eight, it seems that it’d be near impossible to do the same for Jacoby Ellsbury. In the battles to come in the 2019 season, Ellsbury just doesn’t fit with the Yankees. When (if) the Yankees cut him, we should not hold a grudge, we should not have a chip on our shoulders. There’s nothing that says Ellsbury tried anything less than his best to be a good player and a good teammate. Sadly, the former just didn’t work out and it’s time to move on.

Feb. 16th Spring Training Notes: Severino, Ellsbury, Kahnle

February 16, 2019 by Mike

Earlier today CC Sabathia announced he will retire following the 2019 season, which we all knew was coming. The Yankees held another press conference earlier in the day as well, that one to announce Luis Severino’s new four-year extension. He was very clearly overjoyed. The human element of signing a life-changing contract was on full display.

“She called me and said, ‘What happened? Did you win?'” said Severino, referring to his mother and yesterday’s scheduled arbitration hearing. “I said, ‘No, I didn’t win, but I got $40 million dollars.'”

Severino said the two sides agreed to the contract a half-hour before the hearing. “If he’s Sevy it will be good for us and if he is not Sevy it will protect him. If he is what he’s been, this is a good bet for us,” said Brian Cashman to Joel Sherman. Cashman added the Yankees are talking to other players about extensions without revealing who or whether a deal(s) is likely.

Anyway, Spring Training continued today and it was a fairly standard day other than the two press conferences. Here are today’s notes from Tampa:

Cashman was asked about Manny Machado and Bryce Harper and gave a typical Cashman non-answer. “I would reinforce I’m doing my job. Whether that’s those two (or looking at others). The job is to constantly be open to ways to make this work the best it can,” he said. [Pete Caldera]
Jacoby Ellsbury is doing 6-8 hours of physical therapy a day but he has not yet been cleared to run at full speed. He isn’t expected to arrive in Tampa until mid-to-late March and will start the regular season on the injured list. [Lindsey Adler, Jack Curry]
Tommy Kahnle gained weight in an effort to build velocity last summer and that backfired. He said he dropped 25 lbs. over the winter. “I can’t tell how hard I’m throwing, but the catchers have told me it feels like it’s coming out right. That’s encouraging,” he said. [Randy Miller]
Today’s notable bullpen sessions: Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman. Also, Jonathan Loaisiga and Phil Diehl threw live batting practice. My money’s on Loaisiga starting the Grapefruit League opener next weekend. [Brendan Kuty]
Turns out new dad Dellin Betances isn’t the only pitcher or catcher who has yet to report. Righty Raynel Espinal is delayed by a visa issue. Those usually take a few days to clear up. [Brendan Kuty]

Tomorrow is the final workout before position players arrive. They’re due in camp Monday. The Yankees will play their first Grapefruit League game one week from today. Hooray for that.

Jacoby Ellsbury keeps moving further out of the picture for the Yankees

February 14, 2019 by Mike

In a sad way, the news was completely unsurprising. Aaron Boone announced yesterday that Jacoby Ellsbury’s hip surgery rehab has been slowed by another ailment (plantar fasciitis), and that he is quite a bit behind the other position players this spring. Opening Day was always questionable. Now it’s a near certainty Ellsbury will not be ready when the regular season begins.

At this point Ellsbury getting hurt or his rehab taking longer than expected is not surprising news. That has been par for the course for a few years now. What is surprising is that he will stay home in Arizona for the next few weeks rather than report with the other position players on Monday. He’s going to continue his rehab at home and join the team sometime in March.

“It didn’t make sense for him to come out here at this point,” said Brian Cashman to Dan Martin yesterday. “Once he’s able to run and move forward from there, he’ll be here.”

Teams typically bring their rehabbing players — especially players rehabbing from a major surgery like Ellsbury — to camp so they can monitor and assist with their rehab. Jordan Montgomery and Didi Gregorius are with the Yankees as they rehab their new elbow ligaments, for example, and they’re months away from returning to game action. Ellsbury stays home, however.

For all intents and purposes, Ellsbury staying in Arizona won’t change anything. He’s still going to do his rehab work and prepare for the season. He’ll just do it at home rather than with the Yankees. Symbolically, Ellsbury staying home is about as fitting as it gets right now. He is the third highest paid player on the team and he is a non-factor, and has been for a while now.

The Yankees have played 19 postseason games during the Ellsbury era and Ellsbury has started four of them. Aaron Hicks deservingly replaced him as the starting center fielder in 2017 and now it’s not even clear a healthy Ellsbury would fit on the bench as the fourth (really fifth) outfielder. Remember when he hit cleanup for a few weeks early in 2017? That feels like a lifetime ago.

There are two years and approximately $47.5M remaining on Ellsbury contract. We’ve spent the last few weeks (last few years, really) discussing hypothetical bad contract-for-bad contract trades that never felt all that realistic or likely. There has been some trade interest in Ellsbury, sure, but a deal with this framework is always a long shot. I see two possible outcomes:

The Yankees release Ellsbury.
The Yankees find a bad contract-for-bad contract trade partner.

Those are listed in order of what I think is most likely to happen. I know there’s some name recognition here, but the fact of the matter is Ellsbury is now 35 years old, he lost his job two years ago, and he’s a speed guy coming back from major hip surgery. What kinda contract would Ellsbury have received as a free agent this winter? He probably would’ve received no offers and been forced into retirement.

Between the ongoing injuries and his drop down the depth chart, Ellsbury has never seemed more out of the picture than right now. He’s not healthy, and even if he were healthy, the Yankees don’t have an obvious need for him. He is the Yankees’ version of the Blue Jays’ version of Troy Tulowitzki. Toronto owed Tulowitzki a lot of money but had no place for him. They could either grit their teeth and stick with him, or they could release him. They released him.

In Ellsbury’s case, the Yankees will recoup salary through insurance — the “recoup 75% of Ellsbury’s salary through insurance and not reinvest it in the team” grift last year didn’t get enough attention — and, as long as that is the case, he will remain in the organization. The Yankees will stash him on the injured list and collect the insurance money as long as possible. And when it is no longer possible, he could be cut loose.

Within the last few years we’ve seen several teams release players with multiple years and big dollars remaining on their contracts. Tulowitzki, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes, Hector Olivera, etc. The Yankees themselves released Alex Rodriguez with roughly $28M and one year plus two months remaining on his contract. Teams are increasingly willing to turn the page on bad contracts, including the Yankees.

Ellsbury is so far out of the picture right now that he’s not in Spring Training while rehabbing an injury — when’s the last time you heard a general manager say, “It didn’t make sense for him to come out here at this point,” about a rehabbing player in the spring? — and unless there’s a barrage of outfield injuries, it’s difficult to see where he fits once he is healthy. He’s part of the team but not actually part of the team.

His wallet will be fine, though I feel bad for Ellsbury the person because the injuries are never-ending and it sure seems like baseball is being taken away from him. It is his livelihood and his passion, and I don’t doubt that he wants to get back on the field and play. The injuries are preventing that and it’s possible he’ll never play again like Crawford and Olivera and A-Rod. A release could mean the end.

For the Yankees, the Ellsbury contract never made sense. He simply wasn’t a $20M per year player when they signed him, and that’s on them. Don’t blame Ellsbury for saying yes to that deal. To their credit, the Yankees haven’t let Ellsbury stand in the way of anything on the field. When Hicks broke out, he got the center field job. When there were better postseason lineup options, Ellsbury rode the bench. Now he’s just hurt and the Yankees won’t even bother to bring him to camp.

Letting Ellsbury stay home for a few weeks is kinda weird and also perfectly representative of his status in the organization right now. Out of sight, out of mind. He’s not needed. Let him do his own thing, and should he ever heal up and be ready to play, only then will the Yankees will figure what to do next. My hunch is that will be an unceremonious Tulowitzki-style release. This has been building for a while now and it feels closer to happening than ever.

Feb. 13th Spring Training Notes: Sabathia, Ellsbury, Severino, Montgomery, Diehl, Stephan

February 13, 2019 by Mike

It was cloudy and rainy in Florida today but I don’t care. Baseball is back. The Yankees opened Spring Training today and Aaron Boone held his annual start-of-spring press conference (video above). More questions were asked about Manny Machado (two) than Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres combined (zero).

“There’s no question, we’ll embrace (the expectations),” Boone said. “I think everyone that’s been here a while — and certainly the new guys coming in — I think understand what goes along with having the kind of club we potentially have, and being within this organization that the expectations are great. We welcome that.”

Here are some grainy cell phone videos of guys playing catch between rain drops. Hey, it beats not watching grainy Spring Training videos, doesn’t it? Anyway, here are some photos from today and here are the day’s notes:

CC Sabathia has a press conference scheduled for Saturday. He’s going to officially announce he’s retiring following the 2019 season, which is no surprise. Sabathia has been saying this will be his final season since last summer. Also, Boone said the Yankees will take it slow with Sabathia this spring following his offseason knee and heart surgeries. No surprise there.
Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery) will stay home in Arizona for a few weeks and not report to camp with position players on Monday. His offseason rehab work was slowed by plantar fasciitis. This is kinda weird. Usually teams want rehabbing players in camp so they can, you know, help them rehab. Anyway, Ellsbury won’t be ready for Opening Day. Congrats to the Steinbrenners for getting more of that sweet insurance money.
Jordan Montgomery is right on schedule with his Tommy John surgery rehab. He is currently making 50 throws at 90 feet and has been doing that for a few weeks now. Montgomery will start throwing off a mound next month and he is on track to return after the All-Star break. “I have my sights set on that,” he said. [Bryan Hoch, Pete Caldera]
Luis Severino admitted he tired down the stretch last year and changed his offseason diet and training program to compensate. He dropped 12-15 pounds and focused more on stamina and cardio than weight training. “It’s not easy. I really hate eating vegetables,” he joked. Severino came to camp noticeably bulkier the last two years, but there is such a thing as too much muscle. [Coley Harvey, James Wagner, Meredith Marakovits]
This year’s guest instructors: Carlos Beltran, Ron Guidry, Reggie Jackson, Hideki Matsui, Tino Martinez, Lee Mazzilli, Stump Merrill, Andy Pettitte, Willie Randolph, Mariano Rivera, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Swisher, and Bernie Williams. The Yankees hired Beltran as a special assistant over the winter and Rivera recently said he’ll start working with the team’s young pitchers. I’d bet on Alex Rodriguez showing up to camp at some point as well. Jorge Posada recently joined Derek Jeter and the Marlins as a special advisor, so don’t expect to see him in camp. [Coley Harvey]
The Yankees have invited lefty Phil Diehl and righty Trevor Stephan to Spring Training, the team announced. Stephan gets an invite after all. The Yankees now have 23 non-roster invitees and 63 total players in big league camp. Here’s some video of Diehl and Stephan.
Some new uniform numbers: Adam Ottavino (No. 0), Troy Tulowitzki (No. 12), Tyler Wade (No. 14, had been No. 12), DJ LeMahieu (No. 26), and James Paxton (No. 65). J.A. Happ and Zack Britton are keeping No. 34 and No. 53, respectively. No. 13 and No. 21 were not issued (again).
In case you missed it earlier, Mike King has been shut down three weeks with a stress reaction in his elbow. Baseball is always quick to smack away that first day of Spring Training excitement.

Pitchers and catchers have their first official workout tomorrow. Position players will report Monday and the Yankees will play their first Grapefruit League game one week from Saturday. We have to wait just a little longer until real live baseball returns.

The Giants are one of the few possible trade suitors for Jacoby Ellsbury and they’ve “talked about” a deal

February 5, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees won 100 games last season despite getting nothing — literally zero plate appearances and zero defensive innings — from their third highest paid player. Jacoby Ellsbury was hurt all year but don’t blame him for his contract. That’s on the Yankees. How could he say no to that offer? The team’s success without Ellsbury shows how little the Yankees need him right now. He’s a non-factor.

Ellsbury had season-ending hip surgery in August and he is questionable for Opening Day according to Brian Cashman’s most recent update, which came in October and is not all that recent. The Yankees do have an open bench spot and Ellsbury could slot in there. It’s also possible Ellsbury has already played his final game as a Yankee. He’s so far out of the picture right now that the club could release him once healthy and move forward with Clint Frazier (or someone else) in that bench spot.

Despite his lost 2018 season, there have been some trade rumblings involving Ellsbury this winter. The Yankees and Mariners discussed an Ellsbury-for-Robinson Cano swap at some point, and Cashman said other clubs have asked about Ellsbury in what he called “money-laundering” scenarios. A bad contract-for-bad contract swap, basically. Ellsbury is still on the roster, so obviously those conversations didn’t go anywhere, but they did happen.

According to Buster Olney, the Giants have “talked about” Ellsbury as they pursue outfield help. Talked to the Yankees about Ellsbury? Only talked internally about Ellsbury? Who knows. San Francisco has considered Ellsbury. That much we know. Whether they engaged the Yankees in trade talks is another matter. Let’s talk about this a bit.

1. What do the Giants have to offer? As you’d expect, Olney says a bad contract-for-bad contract swap would be the likely outcome. You can forget unloading Ellsbury’s entire contract, or even most of it. Maybe the Yankees would eat enough salary to turn him into a $5M per year player and get a prospect back? I suppose. Some cash savings and a prospect is a good outcome in my book.

Anyway, the Giants have a lot of bad contracts right now. They’re currently where the Phillies were in 2012. Lots of money tied up in declining players with a crash coming. The crash has come already, really. San Francisco lost 98 games in 2017 and 89 games in 2018. Ellsbury is owed approximately $47.5M the next two years with a $21.86M luxury tax hit. Some possible matches:

Johnny Cueto: $68M through 2021 ($21.67M luxury tax hit)
Jeff Samardzija: $39.6M through 2020 ($18M luxury tax hit)
Brandon Belt: $51.6M through 2021 ($17.2M luxury tax hit)
Brandon Crawford: $45.6M through 2021 ($12.5M luxury tax hit)
Evan Longoria: $73.18M through 2022 ($11.17M luxury tax hit)

Hard pass on Longoria, who is signed for another four years and is declining every way possible. Offensively (.285 OBP in 2018), defensively (-4.4 UZR), you name it. Crawford has slipped a bit since his 2014-16 peak but is still a quality two-way shortstop and those are tough to find. I don’t see why the Giants would trade him for Ellsbury. It doesn’t make sense for them on the field or financially.

Buster Posey is recovering from his own hip surgery and will presumably see more time at first base going forward. That figures to make Belt expendable and Ellsbury-for-Belt would work for the Yankees. They’d get a lefty first base bat and the total salary is close to a wash, though it’d be spread across three years rather than two. Ellsbury and Greg Bird for Belt? Maybe? Possibly? I feel like San Francisco could fetch more for Belt. Maybe I’m wrong.

Ellsbury-for-Cueto would be very complicated. For starters, Cueto is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to pitch this year, so he does nothing for the 2019 Yankees. He’d be a pickup for 2020-21. Secondly, Ellsbury and Cueto have nearly identical luxury tax hits, but Cueto has another year on his contract and more money coming to him. I think the Giants would jump all over a straight-up trade given the money situation.

An Ellsbury-for-Cueto deal would require some work to make both sides happy financially. I could see the Yankees taking on salary in exchange for a lower luxury tax hit (i.e. Ellsbury-for-Belt). Taking on salary for the same luxury tax hit though? Nah. From a baseball perspective, the Yankees would swap an outfielder they don’t really need for a potential 2020-21 rotation option. Someone to replace CC Sabathia next year and provide depth. Could be cool?

To me, Ellsbury-for-Samardzija is the most realistic scenario. A straight up trade would give the Yankees a serviceable swingman and save money, so, in that sense, go for it. The Yankees would presumably have to eat money to make this work though. The Yankees trade an outfielder they don’t need for a possible swingman. The Giants trade a starter they (probably) don’t need for an outfielder. Both sides would deal from depth to address a weakness.

San Francisco has several bad contracts on the books and multiple outfield openings, so, on paper, they’re probably the best fit for an Ellsbury trade. That doesn’t mean a trade will happen, of course. Ellsbury-for-Samardzija makes the most sense and seems most doable to me. Ellsbury-for-Cueto would be really complicated, Ellsbury-for-Belt or Ellsbury-for-Crawford strikes me as a bad fit for the Giants, and Ellsbury-for-Longoria gets a hard no from me.

2. What about Ellsbury’s insurance? This might be the single biggest hangup in an Ellsbury swap. The Yankees have insurance on Ellsbury’s contract — they reportedly recouped $15.9M of his $21.14M salary last year — though that doesn’t help the luxury tax situation. It does save the team real dollars though. Why trade Ellsbury for Samardzija when you could potentially save millions through insurance, and sign a Samardzija-caliber pitcher on the cheap?

We haven’t had an update on Ellsbury’s hip surgery rehab in a while now and it could be that he isn’t expected to miss enough time for the insurance policy to kick in. Usually the player has to spend so many days on the disabled list before the insurance company starts to pay out. In a screwed up way, Ellsbury missing time makes him less valuable to other teams (because he’s still hurt) but more valuable to the Yankees (because insurance pays out).

3. Couldn’t the Giants just sign a free agent? I mean, yeah. This is what I don’t understand. Cot’s says the Giants are $34.4M under the $206M luxury tax threshold. Couldn’t they just sign Adam Jones or Curtis Granderson for $5M or so and get a healthy outfielder without going through the hassle of a bad contract-for-bad contract trade? If they could unload future dollars with a Cueto or Longoria deal, I’d get it. Otherwise … why?

Perhaps money in San Francisco is tighter than I realize. They did reset their luxury tax rate last year, so that’s good, but they also saw attendance decline for the fourth straight year. The World Series(es) honeymoon seems to be over. Plus every team is cutting payroll nowadays. Why sign a free agent when you could trade for some other team’s busted player and not add payroll? Unless it’s a Cueto or Longoria situation, where significant future dollars are cleared up, I don’t get whey the Giants would want Ellsbury over a free agent. Then again, it’s not my job to get it, so there you go.

4. Would Ellsbury waive his no-trade clause? Beats me. The Giants are pretty bad, but they are closer to Ellsbury’s home in Arizona and his family in Oregon, plus there is a (much) clearer path to playing time with San Francisco than there is with the Yankees. For what it’s worth, Samardzija (eight teams) and Belt (ten teams) have limited no-trade clauses. Crawford has a full no-trade clause and neither Longoria nor Cueto have no-trade protection.

* * *

Olney’s report is quite vague (isn’t every hot stove rumor vague these days?) so it’s unclear how much interest the Giants have in Ellsbury. Is this something they kicked around the office the way every team discusses every player each offseason? Or did they have sincere “hey, this could work for us” talks? The rumor passes the sniff test in that the Giants need outfielders and they have ammo for a bad contract-for-bad contract trade.

On paper, the Yankees have no real use for Ellsbury right now. That was even more true last year, yet there was Jace Peterson in left field nine games into the season, and Shane Robinson in right field much of August. If the Yankees can work out a bad contract-for-bad contract trade and turn Ellsbury into a piece that better fits the roster, great. If not, they’ll wait until he’s healthy and recoup as much as insurance money as possible in the meantime, then figure out whether he fits the roster.

The Yankees and the Myth of the Onerous Long-Term Contract

February 2, 2019 by Bobby Montano

The time for bad Spring Training photos is almost upon us, but 16 teams have not yet signed a free agent. Of those that have, 23 have not signed a player to a contract longer than two years—only 10 out of 77 players who have inked a deal this offseason are guaranteed a job after the 2020 season. One common rationale for this phenomenon is that teams are wising up after decades of handing out long-term deals. That those deals are onerous for teams has become conventional in many baseball circles, but there’s only one small problem with that line of thinking: it’s completely wrong.

The Yankees are a useful case study here: They’re the richest franchise in the sport and have been at the center of some of the game’s richest contracts. It’s worth going through the 7 largest contracts in Yankee history (all of which come after 2001) and examining how each of those contracts actually worked out for the Bombers. Doing so puts to rest the idea that the Yankees have somehow suffered as a result of big spending.

7. Jason Giambi (7 years, $120 million)

The Yankees signed Jason Giambi after their 2001 World Series defeat—having bested Giambi’s Oakland A’s in consecutive ALDS—to replace the beloved Tino Martinez at first base. Giambi’s 7-year, $120 million contract is the 55^th largest of all-time and he more than lived up to his end of the bargain.

Across his seven years in pinstripes, the Giambino slugged .260/.404/521 (143 OPS+) with 209 home runs and 619 walks in 3,693 plate appearances. That he missed roughly half of the year with injury in both 2004 and 2008 limits his overall WAR total (22.1 by Baseball-Reference), but he was a 4 win player per 650 AB with the Yankees. Giambi was a lot more productive than he gets remembered for.

His early-season walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 14^th inning with the Yankees down 3 against the Minnesota Twins and two home runs off Pedro Martinez in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS are two of his more memorable moments. The Yankees never won a World Series while he was in town, so he is often forgotten among recent Yankee greats, but Giambi was a middle-of-the-order force on a team that went 680-455 (.599 winning percentage) during his tenure in the Bronx.

It’s safe to say that Giambi was worth every penny.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury (7 years, $153 million)

Jacoby Ellsbury penned a 7-year, $153 million deal with the Yanks fresh off a World Series victory with the rival Red Sox in 2013. He was only the 18^th player in MLB history to receive a contract worth over $150 million, and he was supposed to inject life into a dormant Yanks offense. But this one, as we all know, has not gone according to plan.

Ellsbury has missed considerable time due to injury and has been mostly bad when healthy. His .264/.330/.386 (95 OPS+) line with the New York is well-below what the Yankees hoped for, and he has only been worth 9 wins in pinstripes.

But it’s important to remember that Ellsbury was often injured and only infrequently an above-average hitter for Boston. Although the argument at the time was that speedy outfielders tended to have softer declines than many of their peers, it’s clear that he was never the player the Yanks expected. His 8-win MVP-runner-up 2011 season with Boston was clearly an outlier at the time and looks even more so now—this particular contract speaks more to an organizational failure by the Yankees than it does Ellsbury.

5. Masahiro Tanaka (7 years, $155 million + $20 million posting fee)

The Yankees gave Masahiro Tanaka a 7-year, $155 million contract just weeks after locking up Ellsbury in a series of moves that was meant to revitalize an aging, stale Yanks group. Tanaka, though, has clearly done his part at the top of the rotation.

Despite a dance with Tommy John, Tanaka has been a reliably above-average arm for the Yanks. He owns a 64-34 (.653) record, posting a 3.59 ERA (118 ERA+) with 9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 824.1 innings pitched (15.6 bWAR) since the start of 2014. He may seemingly always give up a home run, but that should not detract from the fact that the Yankees are lucky to have him take the mound every five days.

A fierce competitor, Tanaka has been lockdown in October, with a 1.50 ERA in 30 innings pitched. His 7 shutout innings against the Cleveland Indians in Game 3 of the 2017 ALDS quite literally saved the season, he was lockdown in both his ALCS starts against the Houston Astros, and he was the only Yankee to win a postseason game this year against Boston. If it’s a big game, you feel comfortable with Tanaka on the mound—and it’s clear that the Yankees shouldn’t regret his deal.

4. CC Sabathia (7 years, $160 million)

The Yankees gave Sabathia a 7-year, $160 million contract following their disappointing 2008 campaign and Sabathia’s legendary one, and he would eventually leveraged an opt-out into what amounted to a 2-year extension following 2011. CC was expected to be the type of ace to carry the Yanks back to the promised land. He did just that in his first try, and he has become one of the most beloved Yankees of the current generation in the process.

CC owns a 129-80 (.617) record with the Yanks, powered by a 3.74 ERA (115 ERA+) in 1,810.2 innings pitched. He’s been worth 30 bWAR, and only 9 pitchers in Yankee history will have won more games in pinstripes than CC when all is said and done.

I wrote all about CC Sabathia last week, so I’ve said about all I can say about him, but one thing is clear: the Yankees absolutely do not regret allowing him to call the Bronx home for final 11 seasons of his Hall of Fame career.

3. Mark Teixeira (8 years, $180 million)

Teixeira’s shocking 8-year, $180 million contract came on a day when most of us expected him to sign with the Red Sox. Instead, the Yanks swooped in and found Jason Giambi’s replacement. Teixeira was a 3-win player per 650 ABs across his 8 years in pinstripes but saw his final few years plagued by frequent injury.

Still, Teixeira hit .248/.343/.479 (118 OPS+) with 206 home runs across 3,522 plate appearances with New York, averaging 35 home runs every 162 games. Teixeira was also a sterling defender at first base, thrice winning the Gold Glove in pinstripes.

His huge 2009 campaign, in which he slugged .292/.383/.565 (141 OPS+) with 39 home runs, netted him 2^nd place in the AL MVP voting, and his 11^th inning walk-off home run against the Twins in Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS was a key moment in the Yanks’ World Series run. Teixeira made the Yankees better for the better part of 8 years, and he was an instrumental player on a 103-win championship team. Big free agent signings are supposed to help you win World Series, and Teixeira did just that. The Yankees should not regret this one either.

2. Derek Jeter (10 years, $189 million)

Derek Jeter inked his first major deal following the 2001 campaign, receiving almost $200 million across 10 years. This one’s easy: a first ballot Hall of Famer and all-time great Yankee, there is no doubt that the Jeter deal made the Yankees a better team.

Across the terms of this contract, Jeter hit .308/.378/.436 (115 OPS+) with 304 doubles and 141 home runs, overall totaling 37.5 bWAR. Jeter was a part of too many big Yankee moments to name, but his 3,000 hit off David Price and July 1, 2004 catch against Boston in which he flew into the stands stick out as two of his top moments over this deal. Jeter is one of the best players in baseball history, in the conversation for the best shortstop ever, and the Yankees certainly don’t regret this deal in the slightest.

1. Alex Rodriguez (Two 10-year contracts)

Alex Rodriguez, were it not for Barry Bonds, might just be the most controversial baseball player in league history. Under constant media scrutiny over his love life, relationship with the Yankee captain and former friend Derek Jeter, steroid usage and at-times contentious relationship with the league and organization, A-Rod divided baseball (and Yankee fans) as nobody else could. But amid the noise, one thing is clear: Rodriguez was worth the money.

A-Rod signed two major deals in his career, and the Yankees were at the center of both. For the purposes of this exercise, let’s analyze the two separately.

10-year, $252 million contract (Offered by the Texas Rangers, Yankee from 2004-07)

By far the largest contract ever handed out at the time, the first A-Rod deal is often pointed to as an example of big contracts gone awry. That is absurd. I repeat: that is absurd.

A-Rod was simply nothing less than one of the most productive baseball players in baseball history across his first 10-year deal, slugging .304/.400/.591 (154 OPS+) with 329 home runs, 3 MVPs, 7 ASGs and 56.4 bWAR. (For perspective, Bernie Williams was worth 49 bWAR in his entire career.) If anything, this deal was a bargain for both Texas and New York.

For the Yankees, his three-home run, 10 RBI performance against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and towering walk-off grand slam against the Indians as the Yanks scored 6 runs in the bottom of the 9^th (all with two outs) stand out as signature moments during this stretch.

Although the Yankees only rostered Rodriguez on this deal for the 2004-7 campaigns, he managed to win 2 MVPs and smash 173 home runs in four years. He was blamed for the Yanks’ failure to win the World Series and often caught the ire of fans, but it’s clear that expecting more (on-the-field, anyway) from Alex Rodriguez was unrealistic. He was as good as you can be.

10-year, $275 million contract (Offered by Yankees following A-Rod’s 2007 opt-out)

The second A-Rod deal, on the other hand, is much more complicated. It was the last time we saw Hank Steinbrenner, and this mega-deal came even as Brian Cashman publicly said the organization would let Rodriguez walk if he opted out. Instead, A-Rod opted out during the final game of the 2007 World Series to much outcry, and the Yankees re-signed him anyway. While A-Rod wasn’t the same player at the end of this deal, he was comfortably above-average the whole time. Not to mention, the Yanks wouldn’t have won the 2009 World Series without him, and they’d never have been able to replace him.

The Yankees were scuffling a bit amid huge expectations in April of 2009, and the Yanks were without their injured (and recently scandalized) All-Star third baseman. When he returned in early May, he slugged a three-run home run in Camden Yards in his first at-bat and the Yankees never looked back. A-Rod hit 30 home runs and drove in 100 runs despite missing over a month, and was absolutely an essential component of the Yankees postseason run.

His 2-run, game-tying home run off Joe Nathan in the bottom of the 9^th of Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS is one of the defining moments of that era, but he also hit the go-ahead home run in Game 3, hit another game-tying home run in extra innings in the Game 2 of the ALDS and had the go-ahead hit in the top of the 9th inning of Game 4 of the World Series to give the Yanks a 3-1 lead. Without A-Rod, there’s no 2009 title. It’s that simple.

Despite the fact that the second contract was scandalized by more steroid allegations, a lawsuit against the Yankees, and a full-season suspension, A-Rod actually hit .269/.359/.486 (123 OPS+) with 178 home runs over those final years, and had one final great campaign in 2015. Even during his down years, A-Rod was better than most other players in the league. Given his repaired relationship with the Yankees, it’s fair to say that the team and player have both moved on from any hostility—and fans should too.

Alex Rodriguez is the recipient of two of the most misunderstood contracts of all-time from a baseball perspective, and it’s time we all acknowledge a simple fact: he was well worth the money.

Special Mention: Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325 million)

Giancarlo Stanton received a 13-year, $325 million contract from the Miami Marlins in 2014, with the Yankees acquiring him following the 2017 campaign. It’s too early to say whether or not this deal will work out for New York, but the early indications are a resounding yes.

Across the first four years of the deal, Stanton has hit .265/.350/.557 (143 OPS+) and has hit 151 home runs. Even his relatively down year last year with the Yanks was extremely productive, and he figures to be a major force in the middle of the Yankee lineup for at least two more years, depending on whether or not he exercises his opt-out following the 2020 season (if I were him, I would not). More to come on this one, but if the recent history of large NYY contracts is any indication, they won’t regret this at all.

Conclusions

What this shows us is that the big, onerous contract that we hear so much about is largely a strawman: it barely exists. Of the 7 largest contracts in Yankee history, only one of them (Ellsbury) is a true albatross, and again, that speaks more to a failure by the Yankees than it reflects poorly on Ellsbury. He’s the same player he always was. In other words, 6 out of 7 (85%) have significantly improved the Yankees and made them a better team.

But there’s another key point buried in here. Most of these deals came in relatively close proximity to one another. The Yankees signed Giambi one year after giving Jeter his 10-year deal; they added Teixeira and Sabathia in the same offseason; they signed Tanaka and Ellsbury in the same offseason; they added Stanton despite having Ellsbury’s and Tanaka’s deals on the books, underscoring how the deal isn’t prohibitive at all. This tells us that fears that the Yankees cannot offer another long-term mega deal (or two!) if they want to re-sign their own developed core are unfounded. (Granted, the data has always shown that it was unfounded.)

Despite what we often year about large contracts and long-term financial obligations, the reality is that the Yankees simply haven’t suffered, financially or on-the-field, as a result of any of their major deals in the last 20 years. If anything, those deals are a major reason why the Yankees have not had a losing season since 1992—and the Yankees, and their fans, would be wise to remember that.

Bryce Harper and the fallacy of having too many outfielders

December 19, 2018 by Mike

Last week at the Winter Meetings, Brian Cashman and Scott Boras had a weird little back-and-forth in the media about free agent Bryce Harper. Cashman said the Yankees don’t need an outfielder and thus don’t need Harper. Boras more or less laughed that off. He wants the Yankees involved for leverage purposes, if nothing else, and of course Cashman is going downplay interest in any free agent.

“At no point all winter have I said I am looking for an outfielder. The Harper stuff, I am surprised you are still asking,” said Cashman to George King. “I have Judge, Stanton, Ellsbury, Gardner, Frazier, Hicks. Ellsbury will be healthy and Frazier will be healthy (but even if we) take them out, I have Hicks in center and Stanton, who is athletic as hell, as the DH because Judge is in right and I have Gardner in left.”

“I’ve never heard the Yankees say (they don’t need an outfielder),” Boras shot back to Ken Davidoff. “As far as the Yankees and what discussions I, Hal (Steinbrenner), and Cash have had, I will leave that to our own … The Yankees are very adept. They’re smart. They are going to do something, and I think they can earnestly tell you that right now they’re not doing it and have every intention of doing something else when it’s best for them to do it.”

On paper, the Yankees do not need an outfielder. Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks are locked into two of the three outfield spots. Brett Gardner is more of a platoon guy and a part-time player at this point of his career, but, even then, the Yankees have Giancarlo Stanton for the third outfield spot. Jacoby Ellsbury is owed a ton of money and Clint Frazier is a former top prospect who could very well claim an everyday outfield job by midseason.

The outfield — and thus Harper — does not appear to be a priority at this point. Now that J.A. Happ is back on board, the Yankees need a middle infielder and bullpen help more than anything. That is an oversimplification, however, and it completely ignores Harper being a just turned 26-year-old star. I think he’s a generational talent. Players who hit .279/.388/.512 (139 OPS+) with 184 (!) homers and +27 WAR through their age 25 season are extremely rare.

As far as I’m concerned, Harper (and Manny Machado) is the type of player you bring in no matter what. You sign him when you have the chance because the chance to sign a player like this doesn’t come around often, and you make the roster work around him. Four things derail this “the Yankees don’t room in the outfield for Harper” fallacy that somehow came to exist:

Gardner can easily be moved to the bench to open up left field.
Cashman himself admitted Ellsbury may not be ready for Opening Day after hip surgery.
Frazier is coming back from concussion issues and remains unproven at the MLB level.
There is life beyond 2019.

Imagine passing on a talent like Harper because you believe you already have six Major League caliber outfielders, and three of them are Gardner, Ellsbury, and Frazier? Goodness. Gardner is best used in moderation these days and he was moved into a bench role following the Andrew McCutchen trade this year. He can be moved to the bench in deference to Harper too. Ellsbury? Frazier? Who knows. The Yankees can’t count on them for anything at this point.

I mean, we all watched this past season, right? The Yankees went into Spring Training with the exact same outfield depth chart as the one they have right now, except Ellsbury and Frazier were healthy, and they had Billy McKinney too. Lots of outfielders! Nine games into the season Jace Peterson was starting in left field. Nine games. Depth at even the deepest positions can evaporate quickly.

That fourth point seems to be a forgotten one too. Whoever signs Harper is not just signing Harper for 2019. He’s getting multiple years. Maybe as many as 10-12 years. Both Hicks and Gardner will be free agents next offseason, and, in two offseasons, Ellsbury will be a free agent and Stanton could opt out of his contract. It is possible if not likely the Yankees will be looking for two everyday outfielders in eleven months. No room for Harper? Please.

And let’s not forget about the first base option. That doesn’t only apply to Harper either. Judge and Stanton are quite literally giants and who knows how their legs will hold up over the years? Running around the outfield at that size doesn’t seem like something they’ll be able to do long-term. First base (or DH) could be their ultimate destinations, further creating a need in the outfield. Point is, there are a lot — a lot — of ways to clear outfield space for Harper.

I don’t believe Cashman was being sincere when he listed six outfielders as evidence the Yankees don’t need Harper. The Yankees have to downplay their interest in Harper because, if they don’t, Boras will take them to the cleaners. Cashman knows the Yankees can fit Harper into their outfield. The question, as always, is money. Are the Yankees willing to spend what it takes? If yes, the “we have too many outfielders” talking point will disappear in a hurry.