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River Ave. Blues » J.A. Happ

J.A. Happ’s mid-game adjustment vs. Boston and what’s next

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(Presswire)

J.A. Happ’s last start began like a familiar tune. He surrendered two home runs in the first two innings, tacking on to the four he had already allowed in just over twelve frames to begin the year. Yet, Happ settled down and was able to reach the seventh inning without much issue. Maybe the struggling Red Sox were the reason he managed to soldier through after appearing to be on the ropes early on. Or, perhaps an in-game adjustment kept him alive.

It’s been well documented that Happ relies heavily on his fastball. He’s made a career of throwing his hard stuff about three quarters of the time. Although Happ has never lit up a radar gun, he’s been particularly successful with his four-seamer because of his command and the pitch’s high spin rate.

On Wednesday, Happ may have reached a breaking point with the four-seamer. To date, all six dingers the veteran has allowed have been against that pitch. It sure seems like that swayed him to make a change right away. Beginning in the second inning, Happ ramped up on his sinker and slider and eschewed the four-seamer.

For dramatic effect, take a look at the comparison of his four-seam and sinker usage by game since 2017:

It’s generally not a great idea to make sweeping conclusions about results over just a few innings, especially against a scuffling Boston team, but the data here is pretty convenient. Happ pitched much better once he ditched his trademark offering. That doesn’t make this approach a panacea for his early season woes, however. Really, the more important aspect of Happ’s game to analyze is his four-seamer. After all, it’s what made him a good pitcher in the first place. Does he really need to abandon it now?

Four-Seamer 2018 2019
Velocity 92.3 91.4
Spin Rate 2334 2363

The good news is that his spin rate is steady. He’s never been a hard thrower, rather, deception has always been the key for the pitch. Throwing high spin rate fastballs up in the zone generally makes for plenty of pop-ups and whiffs. He’s still targeting that section of the zone this season, similar to last year.

The not so good news is his pitch speed. It’s down a hair under one mile per hour compared to last year. Granted, it’s April, so there’s time to build that back up as the weather warms up. That being said, while Happ usually adds velocity as the season goes on, this year’s starting point is lower than ever before.

He may be able to approach the velocity he had at the very end of last year (which was already trending downward!), but approaching 93 MPH on the gun reliably seems out of the question.

Velocity may not be the name of the game for Happ, but losing a tick certainly can sap some of the offering’s effectiveness. Spin rate can only do so much, and ostensibly, is not as helpful when other pitch traits decline.

We already know that Happ’s slider and changeup are mediocre at best, so he’s not going to morph into the left-handed version of Masahiro Tanaka. But, if he can’t find his lost four-seam velocity, he may need to adapt like he did in his past outing against the Red Sox. Fortunately, he could learn a thing or two from his teammate, CC Sabathia, who’s made a living throwing sinkers and cutters over the last couple of years. Maybe Happ was serious when he asked this question to Sabathia:

I can’t tell you if Happ can be successful as a sinkerballer going forward. It certainly worked over the course of a few innings, but perhaps that just caught the Red Sox off guard. Furthermore, there’s no assurance that he’s going to continue that approach his next time out. Even if he does, opponents should be better prepared for it. Either way, Happ is going to have to figure out one of two things: how to pitch with diminished four-seam velocity, or how to regain a mile per hour on it.

Yankeemetrics: Bronx is burning (April 12-14)

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(Getty)

April 12: No lead is safe anymore
The Yankees returned to the Bronx on a rainy Friday night and picked up right where they left off when they departed Texas — blowing a lead and losing another game.

The loss dropped them to 5.5 games behind in the AL East, putting them in an unprecedented hole in the division race. It was the first time they trailed by more than five games in the standings this early into the season (13th game) since 1984, when the Tigers won 16 of their first 17 games and ran away with the AL East crown.

It was a collective dumpster-fire performance by the pitching staff. J.A. Happ was awful from the start (six runs allowed on nine hits) and continued his trend of inefficient, ineffective pitching this season (88 pitches, 12 outs). For the third time in three starts, he was unable to get more than one out in the fifth inning before getting pulled.

Before Happ, the last two Yankee pitchers to last no more than 4 1/3 innings in each of their first three starts of the season were Phil Hughes (2011) and Chien-Ming Wang (2009) … and both of those guys went on the DL after their third start.

After the Yankees pulled within a run in the bottom of the sixth, Chad Green came into the game in the next frame and sealed the loss by allowing back-to-back homers. It was the first time as a reliever he gave up multiple homers in a game. He has pitched 6 1/3 innings and allowed three homers. In 2017, he allowed four homers in 69 innings pitched.

(Getty)

April 13: CC The Great
The Yankees briefly snapped out of their slump on Saturday. They blanked the White Sox 4-0 thanks to a vintage performance from CC Sabathia and a dose of smallball offense.

Sabathia and three relievers combined to give up just one hit and no walks, the fourth game in Yankee Stadium history (old or new) that the Yankees pitchers didn’t walk a batter and allowed no more than one hit. The other three times? David Cone’s perfecto (July 19, 1999), David Wells’ perfecto (May 17, 1998) and Don Larsen’s perfecto (Oct. 8, 1956).

Sabathia was spectacular in his 19th and final season debut, delivering a performance — though abbreviated — that statistically might rank among the best of his big-league career. He retired 15 of the 16 batters faced, allowing only a third-inning single. It was the first game in Sabathia’s career that he gave up one or fewer baserunners (while pitching more than an inning). The big lefty also re-wrote the franchise record books:

The Yankees broke a scoreless tie in the seventh with a couple manufactured runs:

  • bases-loaded RBI single by Luke Voit (who is a cool 7-for-18 and 16 RBI with the bags full in his career)
  • bases-loaded sac fly by Kyle Higashioka (the first sac fly of his MLB career!)
  • perfect safety squeeze bunt by Tyler Wade (the first successful sac bunt of his MLB career!)

Aaron Judge then added another run in the eighth with a solo shot that just cleared the right-field porch. It had a Statcast-projected distance of 335 feet, the shortest home run of his career.

(New York Post)

Tanaka slammed, bats crumble
Any sliver of optimism coming from Saturday’s win was quickly erased in Sunday’s 5-2 loss. They’ve now dropped each of their first three series at Yankee Stadium; the last time that happened was 1982 (a forgettable season that included three managers and 83 losses). Even worse the three series losses have come against the Tigers, White Sox and Orioles — teams that averaged 104 losses last year and are projected to have three of the five worst records in MLB this season.

The game followed a very familiar — and depressing — script, with the Yankees taking an early lead, blowing it and the offense unable to mount a comeback.

The facts: The Yankees have held a lead in 14 of 15 games and are 6-8 in those games; they’ve scored first in 12 of 15 games and are 5-7 in those games.

  • 8 blown-lead losses are tied with the Royals for the most in MLB.
  • Last year they didn’t suffer their 8th blown-lead loss until June 24.
  • Last year they won 80% of their games in which they had a lead (second-best record in MLB), and the MLB-wide win percentage is 70%.
  • 7 losses when scoring first are the most in MLB this season.
  • Last year they didn’t get their 7th scoring-first loss until July 15
  • Last year they won 81% of their games when scoring first (second-best record in MLB) and the MLB-wide win percentage is 67%

Masahiro Tanaka cruised through the first three frames, striking out five of the first seven batters he faced. But he unraveled in the fourth, loading the bases with one out, before Tim Anderson pummeled a hanging splitter for a game-changing grand slam. It was the fourth career grand slam allowed by Tanaka, and all four have come since 2017. The only other pitcher to give up four slams in that span is J.A. Happ.

As nasty as Tanaka’s splitter can be when he locates it down in the zone or in the dirt, it’s a meatball pitch when he can’t command it.

(Sunday vs White Sox)

And so far this year, he’s struggled to keep the pitch out of the hitter’s attack zone more than in any previous season. Here’s his percentage of splitters thrown in the heart of the zone:

2019 – 30%
2018 – 21%
2017 – 21%
2016 – 16%
2015 – 14%
2014 – 15%

Tanaka was terrible but the offense was just as awful, scoring only two runs on four hits; from the fourth through ninth innings, just two Yankees reached base and neither of those guys made it to second base.

Yankeemetrics: Orioles Deja Vu (March 28-31)

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(New York Times)

March 28: The Legend of Luke
One down, 161 to go. For the second year in a row, the Yankees kicked off their schedule with a win, 7-2 over the Orioles. It marked the first time in more than a decade they’ve had back-to-back season-opening victories, since winning four in a row from 2005-08. The seven runs scored were their most in a win on Opening Day since 2007 when they beat the Rays 9-5.

Luke Voit got the party started early with a three-run first-inning dinger, crushing an 87 mph hanging slider 428 feet into the centerfield seats. Last year he struggled to drive breaking pitches, posting an average exit velocity of just 88 mph while whiffing on 40 percent on those offerings. He saw 217 curves and sliders in 2018, and cranked just one of them out of the park.

Thursday’s home run gave him 15 homers in his first 40 regular-season games with the Yankees — a 162-game pace of 61 homers. He added another RBI when was plunked with the bases loaded in the fifth. #FunFact alert! Voit is the third Yankee cleanup hitter with at least four RBI on Opening Day, joining Alex Rodriguez (2006) and Yogi Berra (1956).

Masahiro Tanaka, making his fourth career Opening Day start (the most by a Japanese-born pitcher), was solid and efficient in his 83-pitch outing, allowing two runs (one earned) while striking out five and walking none in 5 2/3 innings.

He earned our Obscure Yankeemetric of the game for that effort, becoming one of three Yankee Opening Day starters to give up no more than one earned run with at least five strikeouts and no walks. The others: Catfish Hunter (1977) and Mel Stottlemyre (1968).

(Newsday)

March 30: Too little, too late
There will be no perfect season in the Bronx. Bummer. Cold bats and sloppy defense are a good recipe for a loss, and the Yankees followed that script to near perfection on Saturday afternoon in 5-3 defeat.

Despite putting 16 runners on base, the Yankees scored only three runs. As frustrating as the team’s situational hitting was last year, they produced that poor combo — more than 15 baserunners and three or fewer runs in a game just once (5-3 loss to Braves on July 2).

The newcomers provided most of the highlights as DJ LeMahieu got his first hit and RBI as a Yankee, Troy Tulowitzki smoked his first home run in pinstripes and James Paxton had a strong debut on the mound.

Paxton showed off his impressive fastball in holding the Orioles to two runs (one earned) on four hits with five punchouts in 5 2/3 innings. He kept the pitch away from the heart of the zone, getting a bunch of called strikes on the edges with the four-seamer while also elevating his heater for swinging strikes.

(source: Statcast)

Last year Paxton ranked ninth among starters (min. 500 pitches) with a 25.6 percent swing-and-miss rate on his four-seam fastball — and he matched that number on Saturday as the Orioles swung at 32 of his four-seamers and whiffed eight times (25.0%).

Tulowitzki’s longball was a rare 358-foot opposite field solo shot in the ninth inning. Tulo has plenty of pop — he is one of seven players in MLB history with at least 200 homers as a shortstop — but most of that has been pull-side power in recent years: 45 of his 48 homers from 2015-17 went to left field.

(AP)

March 31: Rinse, repeat, RISPFail
With a chance to salvage a series win against the Orioles on Sunday afternoon, the Yankees again failed miserably in clutch situations and suffered another disappointing loss, 7-5. This is the second straight season they dropped an early-season series at the Stadium against the Orioles.

Over the last two seasons, they are 2-5 vs the Orioles in April and 11-4 vs them in May thru September. The Yankees are also 5-7 at home vs the Orioles since the start of last season, the only team they have faced at least five times and have a losing record against in the Bronx.

In losing the final two games, the Yankees went 5-for-21 with runners in scoring position and stranded a combined 25 baserunners (11 on Saturday and 14 on Sunday). It was their most in a two-game span since June 12-13, 2017 when the also left 25 guys on base in the first two games of a series against the Angels. They actually split those two contests, so to find the last time the Yankees stranded 25-plus men in a two-game stretch and lost both games, you have to go back nearly three years to April 15-16, 2016 against the Mariners. Gross.

One player who has avoided the RISP-fail plague to start the season is DJ LeMahieu, who had two hits and an RBI for the second straight day. That effort earned him our Obscure Yankeemetric of the game, becoming part of an eclectic group of six players to have two-plus hits and at least one RBI in each of their first two games with the Yankees. The other five legendary names: John Olerud (2004), Don Slaught (1988), Hector Lopez (1959), Joe DiMaggio (1936) and Pat Collins (1926).

Giving up three homers to the O’s didn’t help the winning cause, either, as J.A. Happ was tagged for two of those longballs and Stephen Tarpley coughed up his first career homer as a major-leaguer. In 69 2/3 innings with the Yankees (including playoffs), Happ has given up 13 homers, or a rate of 1.68 per nine innings pitched. If he posted that over an entire season, it would be the second-highest homer rate by a Yankee pitcher that qualified for the ERA title (highest is 1.77 by Masahiro Tanaka in 2017).

Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

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German. (Presswire)

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
UTIL Tyler Wade OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
RHP Luis Cessa RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Domingo German RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

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(Presswire)

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

  • Dellin Betances (shoulder)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
  • Aaron Hicks (back)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
  • CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
  • Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

  • Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
  • Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

  1. Greg Bird
    (huge gap)
  2. Billy Burns
    (tiny gap)
  3. Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

(Presswire)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

  • On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
  • Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Greg Bird LF Giancarlo Stanton Masahiro Tanaka CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine 1B Luke Voit CF Brett Gardner James Paxton SU Zack Britton
2B Gleyber Torres RF Aaron Judge J.A. Happ SU Chad Green
SS Troy Tulowitzki UTIL Tyler Wade Luis Cessa SU Adam Ottavino
3B Miguel Andujar MR Jonathan Holder
IF DJ LeMahieu MR Tommy Kahnle
MR Stephen Tarpley
SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

The Return of J.A. Happ [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

The Yankees had a chance to be bold this offseason. They could’ve splurged for Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, or even Patrick Corbin, but instead opted to spread the money around on several good players rather than one or two great players. Calling it an offseason of half-measures is probably unfair. Clearly though, the Yankees could have done some bigger things and passed.

Among the offseason pickups was veteran southpaw J.A Happ, who pitched so well for the Yankees following last year’s trade (2.69 ERA in eleven starts) and has had a renaissance in his early-to-mid-30s. Rather than sign Corbin to a deal that would’ve carried him through his age 35 season, the Yankees gave Happ a little two-year contract (with a vesting option) that covers his age 36-37 seasons.

At a time when so many teams are shunning free agents and older players, the Yankees gave the winter’s third largest average annual value ($17M per year) for a free agent starting pitcher to the fourth oldest starter on a 40-man roster at the start of Spring Training. Corbin and Hyun-Jin Ryu received a higher average annual value. Only Rich Hill, CC Sabathia, and Adam Wainwright are older.

“He was a performer. He took the ball every five days. He was a competitor. He came as advertised,” Brian Cashman said to Coley Harvey following Happ’s re-signing. “A real pro. Had a veteran presence within that clubhouse. Knew exactly what was necessary and brought it every five days in the most competitive division in all of baseball and the world.”

Aside from his ALDS start, Happ’s brief tenure with the Yankees went very well, and it shouldn’t be ignored that he joined the team in the middle of a postseason race and thrived. That’s not easy, especially not in New York. Happ is a pro’s pro. Low maintenance and effective. Every team wants a guy like him in the middle of their rotation. Let’s preview his upcoming 2019 season.

Is an adjustment coming?

The Yankees are an anti-fastball team but Happ is not an anti-fastball pitcher. In fact, he’s one of the most extreme fastball pitchers in baseball. Last season he threw the fifth highest rate of fastballs in baseball:

  1. Lance Lynn: 88.9%
  2. James Paxton: 81.5%
  3. David Price: 74.9%
  4. Jon Lester: 74.8%
  5. J.A. Happ: 73.3% (72.0% with the Yankees)

Happ ratcheted up his fastball usage during his brief stint with the Pirates a few years ago, which led to his early-to-mid-30s renaissance. He hasn’t lost velocity with age either. Look at his average four-seam fastball velocity numbers the last four years:

  • 2015: 92.8 mph (96.4 mph max)
  • 2016: 92.8 mph (96.4 mph max)
  • 2017: 92.9 mph (96.4 mph max)
  • 2018: 92.7 mph (96.2 mph max)

Geez, hard to get more consistent than that. The velocity has held steady. Happ’s fastball spin rate dipped noticeably last year …

… which worries me a bit. Three of Happ’s four worst months in average fastball spin rate from 2015-18 came last year, and August 2018 was 6 rpm short of making four of the five lowest. Happ likes to pitch up in the zone with his fastball because it’s a great swing and miss pitch. High spin helps the fastball play up.

“I was encouraged, feeling (my fastball) had a little more life,” Happ said to Pete Caldera following his most recent Grapefruit League start. Aaron Boone added: “(I) thought it was the first time he had his Happ fastball. I thought it was a really good day for him.”

Aroldis Chapman’s velocity dipped last season and, to compensate, he started throwing a lot more sliders. The thing is, Chapman came out of the gate throwing more sliders. More sliders was the plan going into the season. He and the Yankees didn’t wait around until they were sure his velocity dipped to make the adjustment. They were proactive.

The Yankees are big believers in spin rate, so they surely noticed Happ’s fastball spin rate dip last year. Because of that, I wonder if we’ll see a slightly different Happ on the mound this year. Maybe more sliders or changeups, or perhaps he’ll bring back the cutter he shelved a few years ago. A proactive adjustment like Chapman’s slider.

For what it’s worth, Happ threw a lot of changeups in his Grapefruit League start last week. That could’ve been one of those “veteran working on a pitch that’s given him trouble this spring” things. Probably was. But maybe it was part of an adjustment? More changeups to help the fastball play up makes sense, no? I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

What do we expect in 2019?

I say this with all due respect: J.A. Happ is boring. He’s a very good Major League pitcher. He’s also relatively uninteresting from a analytic standpoint. He likes to use his high spin fastball up in the zone and … that’s it? In three of the last four seasons he’s finished with an ERA in the 3.50 to 3.65 range. In three of the last four seasons he’s finished with a FIP in the 3.75 to 3.95 range. Consistency is boring.

Happ will play the entire 2019 regular season at age 36 and, for any player at that age, age-related decline is a major concern. Things can fall apart quickly. Happ has defied the typical aging curve — that is especially true with his fastball velocity (it should’ve dipped years ago) — with is encouraging, but it doesn’t mean he will continue to defy it forever. Father Time remains undefeated.

While I admit to being concerned about the drop in fastball spin and the potential ramifications, Happ has earned the benefit of the doubt. He’s been consistently above-average on a rate basis the last four years and he’s averaged just short of six innings per start the last four years. Year after year, season after season, it’s been the same J.A. Happ. That’s not a bad thing at all.

Luis Severino’s injury has created some rotation issues, but, more than anything, the Yankees need Happ to provide competency. They didn’t get it from Sonny Gray or Domingo German last year. Happ came in and stabilized things. If he pitches like an ace, great. That’d be a neat little bonus. With their offense and their bullpen, the Yankees only need Happ to be solid and chew up innings. He remains capable of doing that.

* * *

I was hoping the Yankees would spend big for Corbin, a high strikeout and high ground ball southpaw in the prime of his career. Once they determined his asking price was out of their range (another issue for another time), Happ was the next best thing. I had him as the second best free agent starter this winter. The Yankees avoided a guaranteed third year, which is always a plus for a pitcher this age, and they got to know him a bit firsthand last year following the trade. He’s not Corbin, but Happ was a solid re-signing and will be integral to the 2019 Yankees.

Poll: Undoing one Yankees’ offseason move

by

(Presswire)

Now that the big fish of free agency have picked their destinations, we can officially close the door on the Yankees’ offseason. (I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Dallas Keuchel signing even after the Luis Severino injury.) Even without Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, the Yankees had a pretty busy winter. They signed seven free agents, though only three are new to the club. Two significant trades were completed as well.

If you had a mulligan, which transaction would you undo? For argument’s sake, I’ll make a brief case against each move. I’ll then make my choice and let you vote on yours at the end.

Re-signed Brett Gardner (1 year, $7.5 million)

The first step of the offseason was to buy out Gardner’s $12 million 2019 option for a cool $2 million. Then, the Yanks re-signed him for $7.5 million immediately thereafter. It wasn’t a total shock that the team declined its club option on the outfielder, but it was somewhat surprising to see them bring him back immediately. Gardner had a 66 wRC+ in the second half last season, and at 35 years of age, looked just about done. If the front office knew that Bryce Harper was never going to be an option, they should have looked for alternatives before handing Gardner the left field job this season. If Gardner is indeed toast, hopefully Clint Frazier rights the team’s wrong.

Re-signed CC Sabathia (1 year, $8 million)

Unlike Gardner, Sabathia is in the midst of a late career resurgence. The main concern is his heart health after he underwent an angioplasty over the winter, but in terms of performance, there haven’t been any signs of decline. He’s recorded a 117 ERA+ since 2016, but maybe it would have been wise to part ways before Sabathia’s decline. Even though he’s reinvented his pitching style, who knows what could happen at 38 years old.

Re-signed Zack Britton (3 years, $39 million)

The Yankees ostensibly believe that they’re going to get the old Britton. Yet, bouts of forearm soreness in 2017 and a ruptured Achilles prior to the 2018 season sapped much of the southpaw’s effectiveness in recent seasons. For what it’s worth, his stuff looked pretty good in pinstripes at the end of the year. Still, he was pretty wild and struggled to miss bats. Why should we be confident that he’s going to be an elite reliever again?

Re-signed J.A. Happ (2 years, $34 million)

The concern about Happ is not unlike the worries about Sabathia. Happ is another older pitcher, at 36 years old, so the end could come at a moment’s notice. And like Sabathia, Happ has been really good in recent years. It’s just a matter of: is it better to move on too soon or too late? Especially when a younger and better alternative, Patrick Corbin, was available in free agency.

Signed Adam Ottavino (3 years, $27 million)

Ottavino was awesome last season. He’s got a wipeout slider and a strong fastball. How can anyone argue against that? Well, he’s also just a season removed from walking 39 batters in 53 innings. Control has hindered Ottavino in past years and he’s had a bit of a volatile career because of it.

Signed DJ LeMahieu (2 years, $24 million)

As it always goes with ex-Rockies, will he be able to hit away from Coors Field? That’s not the only reason for consternation, though. He’s settled in as a starting second baseman but will now be expected to bounce around the infield without a regular starting role. Is he expected to play almost everyday? Yes. But perhaps having to spend time on the infield corners becomes a problem too. Perhaps Marwin Gonzalez would have been the better option as a super-utility player.

Signed Troy Tulowitzki (league minimum)

When much of the fanbase wanted Machado, signing an oft-injured ex-star is a bit underwhelming. Not only have injuries marred much of Tulo’s career, but he’s also 34 years-old and hasn’t played well since 2014. To count on him as the starting shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery is a huge risk. There’s nothing wrong with taking a flyer on a guy like Tulowitzki, but entrusting him with a significant role could get ugly.

Traded for James Paxton

On a per inning basis, Paxton is elite. The problem throughout his career has been that he’s struggled to rack up innings, however. The Yankees are really counting on him to create a one-two punch with (healthy) Luis Severino, but will Paxton hold up? Getting an ace isn’t a piece of cake, and sometimes risks have to be undertaken in order to get one, which is precisely what the Yankees are rolling the dice on here. Again, with Corbin available for money, the Yankees could have held prospects like Justus Sheffield for an alternative to Paxton.

Traded away Sonny Gray

There’s no question that Gray’s tenure in pinstripes did not work out. If Gray thrives with the Reds, it’ll be easy to say the Yankees screwed up. But, was it sensible to deal Gray at his lowest value? Gray could have been given some sort of opportunity to rebuild himself in New York this year. Maybe he could have served as the swingman, which appeared to be Luis Cessa’s job to lose before Severino’s injury.

My vote goes for Gardner. I’d have been happy to have him back as a fourth outfielder, but to me, there was no need to rush into an agreement at the outset of free agency. His performance wasn’t going to find him a big contract elsewhere for the Yankees to match, and in fact, they probably could have saved a few bucks if they were patient. Not that the Yankees need to save a few bucks, but rather, my point is that they could have sought a better starting left fielder before returning to Gardy.

What offseason move would you undo?
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