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The Yankees have their priciest arbitration class in years this offseason and some big decisions are required

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(Elsa/Getty)

Given the roster situation and contention window, the Yankees figure to be very active this winter. The team is ready to win now but they need help, particularly in the rotation, but also elsewhere on the roster. The injured Didi Gregorius has to be replaced, as do impending free agents David Robertson and Zach Britton, among others. These next few months should be busy.

The Yankees already have their core in place — they need to supplement this offseason more than overhaul — and they’re going to spend at least part of the offseason keeping that core in place. Guys like Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez are still in their pre-arbitration years and will make something close to the league minimum next year. Others like Gregorius and Luis Severino are arbitration-eligible and will cost a bit more.

Last week Matt Swartz released his 2019 salary arbitration projections at MLB Trade Rumors. There are always exceptions, but Matt’s system is very accurate overall. These aren’t “in the ballpark” numbers. These tend to be close to dead on. Here is the Yanks’ arbitration class and their projected 2019 salaries:

  • Didi Gregorius: $12.4M (fourth time eligible as a Super Two)
  • Sonny Gray: $9.1M (third time)
  • Dellin Betances: $6.4M (third time)
  • Aaron Hicks: $6.2M (third time)
  • Luis Severino: $5.1M (first time as a Super Two)
  • Austin Romine: $2.0M (third time)
  • Tommy Kahnle: $1.5M (second time as a Super Two)
  • Greg Bird: $1.5M (first time)
  • Ronald Torreyes: $900K (first time as a Super Two)

The nine-person arbitration class projects to cost the Yankees a whopping $45.1M in 2019. Goodness. Last year’s arbitration class ran $29.2525M even when including Adam Warren’s full salary. The Yankees have about $55M in free agents coming off the books this winter. Going from a $29.2525M arbitration class last year to a $45.1M arbitration class this year eats up about $15M of that $55M. Hmmm. Anyway, let’s talk about the arbitration class a bit.

1. What happens with Gregorius? Sir Didi needs Tommy John surgery and I have to think that means the Yankees will not pursue a long-term contract extension, if they were even planning to pursue one in the first place. Don’t you have to wait and see what Gregorius looks like post-surgery before committing? I mean, he’ll probably be fine, but you never really know. It’s a major surgery.

As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t think the Yankees will non-tender Gregorius, but I don’t think it would be as egregious as it may seem. He might not be back until August or September. Is it really smart to commit $12.4M to a guy who may not help you much, if at all, when he’ll become a free agent next winter? That’s a lot of money to give to a guy who is going to spend most of the year rehabbing. The potential reward isn’t all that great.

Perhaps there’s a compromise to be made here? Rather than a one-year contract at the projected arbitration salary, the Yankees and Gregorius could work out a two-year agreement? Something like, say, two years and $25M? Or maybe even $30M? That ensures two things:

  1. The Yankees won’t pay Gregorius a hefty sum during his injury shortened 2019 season only to possibly lose him to free agency next winter.
  2. Gregorius gets a nice little guaranteed payday and will still be able to become a free agent prior to his age 30 season, when he’ll still have good earning potential.

The Gregorius injury is really unfortunate. He’s a great player who proved difficult to replace during his short time on the disabled list this past season. The injury also complicates his contract situation for next year. Maybe the Yankees will fork over that projected $12.4M contract for the season then worry about Didi’s free agency next winter. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

2. Gray’s salary is higher than I expected. I didn’t expect Gray’s salary projection to come in north of $9M. He made $6.5M this season and was terrible. His past accomplishments (2015 All-Star, third in the 2015 AL Cy Young voting, etc.) are doing the heavy lifting here. No player has ever had his salary cut during arbitration and Sonny sure as heck won’t be the first. I thought maybe he’d get $8M to $8.5M. I underestimated.

Brian Cashman was very open about trading Gray during last week’s end-of-season press conference. I can’t remember him ever being that candid about trading a player. Here’s what Cashman said, via Brendan Kuty:

“I think it’s probably best to try this somewhere else,” Cashman said. “It hasn’t worked out this far. I think he’s extremely talented. I think that we’ll enter the winter unfortunately open minded to a relocation. Probably to maximize his abilities would be more likely best somewhere else. But then it comes down to the final decision of the price in terms of trade acquisition and matching up with somebody, if we match up.”

I don’t think Cashman would’ve said that unless he was confident he could find a trade match for Gray and get something decent in return. The Yankees very clearly want to get rid of him. It doesn’t mean they’ll give him away. Pitching is in demand and hey, if you were another team, wouldn’t you have interest in buying low on Gray? I think there will be enough of a market that the Yankees get something good in return. Not great, but good.

Now, that said, if the Yankees have trouble finding a trade partner for Gray, would they consider non-tendering him? I don’t think so, but it’s not impossible. Worst case scenario is you take Sonny into Spring Training and essentially audition him for teams. Some team is going to suffer an injury and need a starter. That team might be the Yankees! But yeah, Gray’s a goner. His projected salary is higher than expected but I don’t think it’ll be an obstacle during trade talks.

3. Time to talk extension with Betances? Next season is Dellin’s final season of team control. He’ll be a free agent next winter. Historically, players who sign extensions the year before free agency get free agent contracts. There’s no discount. I don’t think Betances would get Wade Davis money (three years, $52M), but Bryan Shaw money (three years, $27M) ain’t cutting it. I could see Dellin’s camp pushing for four years and $44M or so next year.

Betances is an all-time personal fave and he had a tremendous bounceback season this year. He went from completely unusable in the postseason last year to being the team’s No. 1 bullpen weapon this postseason. There were a lot of folks (a lot of folks) who wanted Betances traded last offseason. Fortunately the Yankees kept him. That said, there are some reasons the Yankees should pass on an extension this offseason.

  1. Betances turns 31 in March and his free agent contract begins during his age 32 season. Dellin’s not that young anymore! He’s almost certainly had his best years already.
  2. As we know, Betances is extremely volatile. When he’s good, he’s unhittable. It’s so fun. When he’s bad, he’s unusable. What if it goes bad again in 2019? I hope it doesn’t happen, but it might.
  3. Dellin does have an injury history. He’s been very durable as the big leaguer, so he deserves credit for that, but he has Tommy John surgery in his past and also shoulder issues while in the minors.

As much as I love Betances and hope he gets to record the final out of the World Series for the Yankees one day, I wouldn’t blame the Yankees one bit for not signing him long-term this offseason. Relievers are inherently volatile and Betances is more volatile than most. They have him for another season and that means another year of gathering information. If he’s willing to take a sweetheart deal, then by all means, sign him. Otherwise I think waiting is the right move.

4. Time to talk extension with Hicks? Yes, I think so. Switch-hitting center fielders who provide big value on both sides of the ball are worth keeping. Hicks turned 29 only two weeks ago, so he has several peak years remaining, and I want him to spend those peak years in pinstripes. Both versions of WAR had Hicksie as a top seven outfielder in baseball this season. Dude’s legit.

Hicks will be a free agent next offseason and, as noted earlier, players who sign extensions at this service time level usually get free agent contracts. There’s no more discount. The contract comparables for Hicks are pretty straightforward. He figures to seek Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5M) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80M) money. And you know what? I’d give it to him. That’s the going rate for a comfortably above-average center fielder.

It’s important to note here that a five-year contract would cover Hicks’ age 29-33 seasons. He’s younger now than Fowler (age 31-35) and Cain (age 32-36) were when they signed their deals. Hicks is younger but he also doesn’t have as long a track record, which kinda balances things out. If the Yankees give Hicks a five-year deal this winter, they avoid all those nasty decline years in his mid-to-late 30s, at least in theory. This should be a thing they pursue this winter.

(Getty)

5. Severino’s cheapest years are over. The Baby Bombers are growing up. Severino is arbitration-eligible for the first of four times as a Super Two this season. He has two years and 170 days* of service time, which is well over whatever the Super Two cutoff will be this winter. (It varies year to year and is usually somewhere around two years and 120 days.) Severino’s first big payday has arrived.

* The MLB season runs 186 days but it only takes 172 days to qualify for a full season’s worth of service time. That means, come the 2022-23 offseason, Severino will be *two days* short of qualifying for free agency. Ouch. He spent juuust enough time in Triple-A in 2016 to push his free agency back and I doubt that was a coincidence.

The salary record for a first time arbitration-eligible pitcher belongs to Dallas Keuchel, who received $7.25M for the 2016 season, the year after he won his Cy Young award. Severino doesn’t have a Cy Young but he didn’t finish third in the voting last year, which will boost his earning potential. Within the last three offseasons five starting pitchers went through arbitration for the first time as a Super Two. Their salaries:

  • Kevin Gausman, 2016-17: $3.45M
  • Marcus Stroman, 2016-17: $3.4M
  • Chase Anderson, 2016-17: $2.45M
  • Taijuan Walker, 2016-17: $2.25M
  • Mike Foltynewicz, 2017-18: $2.2M

Severino’s been better than all those dudes and, frankly, it’s not all that close either. His first year salary is considerably higher than theirs, as it should be. Using the $5.1M projection as a starting point, Severino’s salaries during his arbitration years could go something like $5.1M, $10M, $15M, $20M. More high finishes in the Cy Young voting will equal more money.

Should the Yankees sign Severino to an extension this winter? Eh, I don’t see the need to rush into it. The Yankees can of course afford big arbitration salaries and pitchers are known to break down. It sucks, but it happens. We spent a few years here saying the Yankees should sign Chien-Ming Wang long-term, they didn’t, then he broke down. Baseball can be cruel like that. I am totally cool waiting at least one more year before discussing a Severino extension. Free agency is still a ways away.

* * *

Even subtracting out the likely to be traded Gray, the Yankees have a very expensive arbitration class this offseason. Their most expensive in years. That tends to happen when you have a lot of good young players. The Yankees will have to make some big decisions with this year’s arbitration class too. Do they approach Gregorius, Hicks, or Betances about extensions the year before free agency? Or just let the year play out? There’s a case to be made for both approaches.

Another Lost Season for Greg Bird [2018 Season Review]

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The 2018 season ended far earlier than we all would’ve liked. Now that the season is over, it’s time to begin our annual season review series, which kicks off today with Greg Bird. Aside from post a day Monday through Friday, there is no set schedule for these posts. We’ll write about players when we feel like writing about them, so each day’s review post will be a surprise (even to us!).

(Adam Hunger/Getty)

This was supposed to be the year. The year Greg Bird finally stayed healthy and took over as the Yankees’ first baseman of the present and future. Injuries sabotaged him in 2016 (shoulder surgery) and 2017 (ankle surgery), though we did get a reminder of what Bird is capable of last October, when he hit .244/.426/.512 (151 wRC+) with three home runs and 12 walks in 13 postseason games.

Who can forget Bird’s home run against Andrew Miller in ALDS Game Three last year? Aside from Didi Gregorius’ three-run home run in the Wild Card Game, the Yankees didn’t have a bigger hit all season.

Bird’s postseason performance combined with the perpetual hope that This Is The Year Greg Bird Stays Healthy had everyone excited coming into this season. I’m not the biggest Greg Bird fan out there but he has Yankee Stadium friendly pull power plus military style plate discipline. The Yankees didn’t need him to be their best (or second best, or third best, or even fourth best) hitter. He was expected to be a strong complementary piece.

Instead, for the third straight season, we were left disappointed. First it was another injury, then it was poor performance. Bird hit .199/.286/.386 (81 wRC+) with eleven home runs in (a career high!) 311 big league plate appearances in 2018. Not only did Luke Voit steal away the first base job in August, Bird didn’t even get a spot on the postseason roster. The Yankees carried six bench players on the Wild Card Game roster. Bird was not one of them. He wasn’t on the ALDS roster either. His potential to poke a ball into the short porch was deemed not necessary. Ouch.

Unfortunately, this year’s Greg Bird season review is like the last two. He was hurt, he didn’t live up to expectations, and we’re left wondering what the future holds. And, moreso than at any point before, it seems Bird may no longer be in the Yankees’ long-term plans. They love the guy, they’ve made it clear these last few years, but things don’t always play out as hoped. Let’s look back at Bird’s season.

Another Year, Another Injury

Bird did not even make it out of Spring Training healthy. He finished last season and the postseason healthy, had his first normal offseason in several years, and then his ankle started acting up again. Bird was held out of a Grapefruit League game on March 24th with inflammation in his right foot and sent to see a specialist. Two days later, the Yankees announced he needed surgery to remove a bone spur. The recovery time: 6-8 weeks.

“He was really emotional the other day when he came out, when he was dealing with the pain. Because he knows, obviously, he hasn’t gotten to put it together yet,” said Aaron Boone after the surgery was announced. “And he understands in his mind what kind of player he is and what he thinks he can be. So there were a couple days of some real frustration: ‘What’s going on? What’s the problem?’ … (He) got some closure and feels like this could be the answer to the problem, even though it’s going to cost him some weeks on the front end of the season.”

The initial injury was fairly concerning because Bird had surgery on the ankle last year and there was no play that caused the new injury. He played a full nine-inning game at first base and had discomfort the next day. Those non-contact injuries are always the worst. The Yankees sent him for tests, which revealed the bone spur. A quick recap of Bird’s surgeries:

  • 2016: Missed entire season with right shoulder injury.
  • 2017: Missed three and a half months with right ankle surgery.
  • 2018: Missed roughly two months with right ankle surgery.

Bird had his surgery and was shut down six weeks before beginning a minor league rehab assignment. I remember being pretty stoked that he returned to game action on the low end of that 6-8 week rehab time frame. Bird hit .205/.367/.436 (132 wRC+) with three home runs in his 12 rehab games and rejoined the Yankees on May 26th, two months to the day after it was announced he needed surgery.

All things considered, Bird’s injury and rehab went about as well as everyone could’ve hoped. The injury was unfortunate and the fact he needed surgery stunk, but Bird completed his rehab in six weeks and showed power and patience during his rehab assignment, and that was encouraging. I naively thought the ankle surgery would only be a bump in the road and not a season-derailer. Bottom line though, two surgeries on the same ankle within 12 months is bad news.

A Troubling Decline in Contact Quality

To Bird’s credit, he initially played well after returning from the disabled list. He went 7-for-28 (.280) with two doubles and two homers in his first six games back, and he also had a two-homer game against the Red Sox on June 29th. During his best stretch of the season, from June 29th to July 29th, Bird hit .286/.357/.548 (138 wRC+) with six home runs in 23 games. Who knew? It happened though.

Once the calendar flipped to August, Bird’s production cratered. He hit .135/.210/.260 (26 wRC+) the rest of the season and lost his first base job to Voit. The nosedive in graph form:

Bird started only three games in September — one of those three was the meaningless Game 161 after the Yankees clinched homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game — and appeared in only seven of the team’s final 27 regular season games. He was healthy. He just stunk and didn’t deserve a lineup spot. “It’s frustrating. It sucks to suck,” he said in August.

“Performance matters. The matchups matter,” said Boone late in the season when asked about Bird being mostly glued to the bench. “(I’m) trying to keep both guys relevant and put both guys in positions to succeed as best we can. But I would say it’s a fluid situation … If we can get (Bird) going in the right direction, I’m positive he can not only help us down the stretch, but, hopefully, if we get into the playoffs.”

Watch enough baseball and you’re bound to see a talented player struggle for a long stretch of time. Everyone falls into a rut now and then, you know? Bird’s slump was beyond a normal baseball slump, however. He was struggling and he looked terrible while doing it. This wasn’t one of those “eventually one of these hard-hit balls will fall in” slumps, you know? I keep going back to this GIF:

That is a middle-middle 90 mph fastball and Bird swung through it like it was 99 mph. He could not catch up to fastballs all season. Bird hit .175 with a .174 ISO against fastballs this season (.278 wOBA and .319 xwOBA). That is horrible. The league averages are .269 and .175 (.344 and .344), respectively. Bird couldn’t handle even bad fastballs, opponents noticed, so they kept throwing him fastballs. MLB is unforgiving. Show a weakness and it will be attacked.

When he first broke into the big leagues, Bird was touted for his ability to hit the ball hard and get the ball in the air. He was a launch angle guy before launch angle was cool. The sample sizes are not big because of the injuries, but Bird’s ability to drive the ball in the air is trending in the wrong direction:

Average Exit Velocity
2015: 93.0 mph
2016: Injured
2017: 89.7 mph
2018: 86.9 mph

Average Launch Angle
2015: 21.3°
2016: Injured
2017: 20.2°
2018: 18.9°

I should note that an 18.9° average exit velocity is pretty good. You want to average somewhere in the 10° to 25° range, the closer to 25° the better. Below 10° means too many grounders and above 25° means more fly balls and pop-ups than line drives. Bird is still in that ideal range, but his launch angle is trickling down, and his exit velocity is way down. He simply did not hit the ball hard this past season.

Remember Allen Craig? Craig put up a .312/.364/.500 (139 wRC+) batting line in nearly 1,300 plate appearances from 2011-13, then he suffered an ankle injury in 2014 and was just done. Like done done. Hasn’t played in the big league since 2015 and didn’t even hit in Triple-A pitching from 2015-17. Craig lost that explosiveness in his lower half after the injury and just couldn’t hit any more. He didn’t have a good base underneath him. His swing was all arms. I worry about that with Bird.

“I think he’s over it and past it, but I think there’s a level of building up that stamina and explosion and the fact that you’re still recovering from a surgery,” said Boone about Bird a few weeks ago. “I don’t think there’s any question that if he can stay healthy, a month from now, six months from now, it’s better, it’s more explosive. That’s something that we kind of monitor, talk about and hopefully he can get through this while building up that stamina that makes him special when he’s really on time and impacting the ball.”

Bird has now had three surgeries in the last three years on two important body parts. His right shoulder had to be rebuild and his right ankle had to be repaired twice. That’s his front shoulder and front ankle when hitting. That’s the power shoulder and the weight transfer ankle. Pretty important! It’s not like he tore a finger ligament or pulled a hamstring. These have been some very serious injuries.

We’ve seen Bird be an impact hitter. For very short stretches of time, but we’ve seen it. The natural talent is there and it’s not like he’s an older player. He turns 26 in November. He should be in his prime or just about to enter it. Can Bird still be an impact hitter, physically? Or have the shoulder and ankle trouble compromised him too much? I hope that’s not the case, but it might be.

What’s Next?

The Yankees went into the 2017 and 2018 seasons counting on Bird to be the man at first base. It was his job and he never even had to compete for it. That is not the case now. During his end-of-season press conference last week Boone was quick to note Voit had won the first base job and that, at best, Bird would get a chance to compete for it in Spring Training next year.

“(Voit) certainly came over here and was given that opportunity and took it and kicked the door in,” said Boone. “I’m sure there will continue to be competition on all kinds of levels. The one thing with Greg that I never lost is we’ve seen him be an impact player at times in his career … This year, in a lot of ways, was a little bit of a lost season for him.”

Believe it or not, Bird is arbitration-eligible this winter. He accrued service time while on the disabled list these last few years. Those injuries and the lack of production mean Bird’s salary won’t be exorbitant — for what it’s worth, MLBTR projects Bird for $1.5M — so the Yankees won’t non-tender him or anything like that. Bird has all three minor league options remaining. Technically, he was called up in 2015 and hasn’t been sent down to the minors since. It’s been rehab assignments only.

Point is, Bird is going to be (relatively) cheap and the Yankees will be able to send him to Triple-A next season. At this point, that’s probably the best course of action. No more handing him a job, no more overvaluing a big Spring Training, nothing. Give Bird a look in Spring Training, send him to Triple-A and make him show he’s healthy and productive, then call him back up. That’d be my plan.

When it comes to Greg Bird, nothing would surprise me at this point. I wouldn’t be surprised if he showed up to camp next season, seized the first base job, and raked all summer. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got hurt again and was a non-factor (again). I wouldn’t be surprised if he did something in-between, which is kinda what happened in 2017. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees traded him either. This past season was another lost year for Bird, and time is starting to run out for him to carve out a role in the Bronx.

Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

  • Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
  • Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
  • Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
  • Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

  • The starting pitcher.
  • An emergency guy for extra innings.
  • An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

  • Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
  • Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
  • Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
  • Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Starters Relievers
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Bird Judge Severino Britton
Hechavarria McCutchen Tanaka Chapman
Torres Stanton Green
Voit Hicks/Wade Holder
Walker Robertson
Didi/Toe Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

  • Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
  • Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
  • Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.

Yankeemetrics: End of road, hello rock bottom (Sept. 10-12)

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(Getty)

Welcome back, El Gary
Monday’s series opener in Minnesota had a familiar feel through the first five innings: too many wasted scoring opportunities amid mounting pressure to beat up on a below-average team. Locked in a pitchers duel, Gary Sanchez broke a scoreless tie with a solo homer in the sixth, and then the Yankees bats finally woke up in the next frame as they exploded for six seventh-inning runs en route to the 7-2 win. At 90-54 on the season, this was the fastest to 90 wins for the team since 2009, when they reached the mark in their 140th game.

Sanchez’s home run was a titanic blast that traveled an estimated 460 feet into the left field seats, his second home run this season of 460-plus feet (other was a 461-foot shot on May 4 against the Indians). He is one of four players this season to hit two 460-plus-foot bombs, along with Trevor Story, Joey Gallo and Carlos Gonzalez.

The most interesting part of Sanchez’s two mammoth homers is that they couldn’t have been more different in terms of their vertical location, highlighting his ability to crush pitches regardless of where they’re thrown. On Monday, Sanchez somehow golfed a pitch that was at his shins and sent it into the upper deck at Target Field; back in May, he tomahawked an elevated fastball deep into the left field bleachers at Yankee Stadium.

Through Monday, there had been 32 homers hit at least 460 feet. Sanchez’s against the Twins came on a pitch that crossed home plate just 1.2 feet off the ground, the lowest in the 32-homer sample. His one against the Indians in May came on a pitch that crossed home plate just 3.6 feet off the ground, the highest in the 32-homer sample.

Miguel Andujar ignited the fireworks in the seventh inning with an RBI double, his 40th two-bagger of the season. Cue the Joe-D comparisons:

Andujar is one of 14 Yankees all-time to hit at least 40 doubles and 20 homers in a season, but he is the first third baseman to achieve the feat in franchise history. And impressively, only five other American League rookies as young as (or younger than) the 23-year-old Andujar have produced a 40-double, 20-homer season:

AL Rookies Age 23 or Younger 20+ HR and 40+ Doubles
Year
Miguel Andujar 2018
Nomar Garciaparra 1997
Fred Lynn 1975
Ted Williams 1939
Joe DiMaggio 1936
Hal Trosky 1934

Slammed!
One up, one down continues to be an annoying trend for the Yankees this month. They followed up Monday’s win with an embarrassing and disappointing 10-5 loss on Tuesday. The Twins pummeled the Yankees pitching from start to finish, roughing up starter Sonny Gray for three runs in the first three innings, and then turning the game into an unsightly rout with seven more runs on nine hits against the bullpen.

After his implosion against the Twins, Gray’s ERA as a starter is 5.26 in 23 games. Since 2001, three other Yankee pitchers have finished a season with an ERA that high in as many starts as Gray: A.J. Burnett (5.26 in 2010), Javier Vazquez (5.56 in 2010) and Jeff Weaver (5.73 in 2003).

Jonathan Loaisiga took over for Gray and was somehow worse, tagged for six runs while getting just four outs. The six runs matched the same number he had allowed in his first 20 major-league innings pitched before Tuesday.

(AP)

Three of those runs came courtesy of a grand slam allowed by Tommy Kahnle, who inherited a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the fifth and poured gasoline on the fire when Joe Mauer deposited a center-cut fastball into the seats. It was the first grand slam allowed by Kahnle in his big-league career.

Kahnle has now inherited 11 baserunners and allowed eight of them (73%) to score. Among the 200-plus pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched and 10 inherited runners this season, that inherited score rate is the highest in MLB (the league average rate is 31%).

Didi Gregorius kept the game from being a total disaster with his own grand slam in the sixth, his third career dinger with the bases loaded and second this season. He is the first shortstop in franchise history to hit multiple grand slams in a season.

Both of his slams this year came against the Twins (also on April 23 at in the Bronx), giving us our #FunFact of the series. Here’s the list of Yankees to hit multiple grand slams against the Twins/Senators franchise since 1925:

  • Lou Gehrig (5)
  • Babe Ruth (3)
  • Mickey Mantle (2)
  • Alex Rodriguez (2)
  • Didi Gregorius (2)

Nearly no-hit
The Yankees dropped a rare series in Minnesota thanks to Wednesday night’s debacle, a 3-1 loss in which they nearly got no-hit by Jake Odorizzi. They entered this series 20-8 all-time at Target Field, the best record by any AL team at the ballpark and the Yankees best record at any current AL stadium.

Their offensive struggles reached near-DEFCON-1 levels with Odorizzi taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning before Greg Bird drilled a one-out RBI double into the left-centerfield gap. It was the longest the Yankees had been held without a hit since September 11, 2014 when Rays righty Alex Cobb had his no-hitter broken up with one out in the eighth inning by a double from Chris Young.

(Getty)

Bird might have been one of the most unlikely Yankees to make sure the team wouldn’t be on the wrong side of history. It was his first hit since August 29 and his first RBI since August 19. Bird had one hit in his previous 30 at-bats dating back to August 19 before Wednesday’s miracle hit.

Luis Severino delivered a strong bounceback effort with one run allowed on four hits in 5 2/3 innings. After giving up a leadoff single, he retired 15 straight guys before getting into trouble in the sixth. It was his fewest runs given up since July 1, when he threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Red Sox. In between those dates — 11 games from July 7 through September 5 — Severino posted a 6.83 ERA and batters had a .934 OPS against him.

Even with rosters expanded, the Yankees lack a quality righty pinch-hitter on the bench

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Adeiny the bench bat. (Presswire)

Five days ago September call-ups arrived and the Yankees and every other team brought up extra player from the minors. The Yankees are carrying 31 players on the active roster (15 position players, 16 pitchers) and it’ll be 32 players once Didi Gregorius returns from the disabled list, which could be as soon as Friday. No more worrying about running out of relievers or playing guys out of position.

Once Gregorius returns the Yankees will have seven players on their bench, and, on any given night, these will be the seven players and their roles:

  • Backup Catcher: Austin Romine
  • Third Catcher: Kyle Higashioka
  • Utility Infielder: Ronald Torreyes
  • Defensive Specialist: Adeiny Hechavarria
  • Designated Speedster: Tyler Wade
  • Pinch-Hitter, Maybe?: Greg Bird
  • Neil Walker: Neil Walker

Walker has somewhat predictably cooled of late as his playing time has decreased, though at this point I think he remains the team’s top pinch-hitting option against right-handed batters. I know Bird almost hit that pinch-hit grand slam the other day, but his bat still looks frighteningly slow, and I’m not really sure how you can send him up to the plate in a big spot as your top pinch-hitting option.

Even if you consider Bird a good pinch-hitting option, the Yankees are still short a right-handed bat on the bench. Walker is a switch-hitter who is hitting .174/.237/.246 (30 wRC+) against lefties this year, and his struggles against southpaws date back several seasons (career 86 wRC+ vs. LHP), so it’s not small sample size noise. He’s a switch-hitter in name only. That leaves, uh, Romine or Torreyes as the top righty bench bat? Yikes.

This isn’t a minor detail either. It has come into play the last two nights. On Monday, with the Yankees down three and two runners on base in the seventh inning, Walker was sent up as a pinch-hitter against a righty, and the A’s countered with lefty Ryan Buchter. Buchter retired Walker and Brett Gardner, a .250/.321/.339 (83 wRC+) hitter against lefties this year, to snuff out the rally.

Last night Buchter was brought in to face Gardner with a runner on base in a one-run game and the Yankees had no countermove. That one actually worked out okay in a weird way. Buchter picked Gleyber Torres off first base to end the inning, then Gardner started the game-tying rally the next inning with an infield single into the 5.5 hole. That doesn’t seem like a sustainable strategy, Gardner beating out infield singles against lefties.

The right-handed pinch-hitter down the stretch was supposed to be Luke Voit, but instead he’s in the starting lineup because he’s mashing dingers (and Bird has been terrible). Having Walker to pinch-hit against righties and Voit to pinch-hit against lefties would be fine. Instead, the Yankees have Walker to pinch-hit against righties, no one obvious to pinch-hit against lefties, and Bird without a clear role.

The Yankees only have one seemingly viable right-handed pinch-hitting option in Triple-A: Ryan McBroom, a first baseman by trade who played some outfield this year, and hit .302/.348/.458 (125 wRC+) with 15 homers between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton this year. The Yankees got him from the Blue Jays in the Rob Refsnyder trade last year. They could bring McBroom up and let him take his hacks against lefties as a pinch-hitter.

Or maybe this isn’t a big deal at all. Aaron Judge started swinging a bat earlier this week and is inching closer to a return, and once he does get back, the Yankees will have five players (Gardner, Judge, Aaron Hicks, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton) for four lineup spots (three outfield plus DH). If Gardner is in the lineup, that means one of the other four guys will be on the bench and available to pinch-hit against a lefty.

Until Judge returns (if Judge returns?), the Yankees don’t have an obvious pinch-hitting option against a lefty pitcher, and it burned them two nights ago. It nearly burned them last night. Maybe bringing up McBroom as a short-term bench bat until Judge returns makes sense, just to have that power righty bat on the bench. Otherwise the best option is probably sending Torreyes up there, and hoping he contact bombs the pitcher and finds outfield grass.

Yanks reportedly place Andujar, Bird, Hicks on trade waivers

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Hicks and Andujar. (Patrick McDermott/Getty)

According to George King, the Yankees placed Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, and Aaron Hicks on revocable trade waivers last Thursday. This is the first bit of Yankees’ trade waiver news reported this month. I’m certain several other Yankees have passed through waivers already. We just don’t know about it.

Trade waivers are necessary to complete trades following the July 31st deadline. Here’s a real quick primer on trade waivers:

  • All 40-man roster players must go through trade waivers to be traded after July 31st. Non-40-man players can be traded at any time. They don’t require waivers.
  • Players claimed on trade waivers can only be traded to the claiming team within 48 hours of the claim. Players who go unclaimed can be traded anywhere the rest of the season.
  • Trade waivers are revocable. If a player is claimed, his team can pull him back and keep him.

Why place Andujar, Bird, and Hicks on trade waivers? Well, why not? There’s no risk — again, if a player is claimed, his team can pull him back — and it allows the Yankees to gauge interest in their players. Also, teams flood the market with players to “hide” the guys they want to/are willing to trade. A claim limits the market. Teams want their players to clear to give them more potential trade options.

Being placed on trade waivers last Thursday means the waiver period has already expired for Andujar, Bird, and Hicks. They’ve either cleared or been claimed and pulled back at this point. The 48-hour window to work out a trade would have expired already (I think). Even if the Yankees have soured on Bird and are open to moving him, doing it in August would be tough. That’s a move that was always going to wait until the offseason.

The deadline to acquire players and have them be postseason eligible is 11:59pm ET on August 31st and that is a hard deadline with no loopholes. Four days remain to swing a deal for a postseason-eligible player. Andujar, Bird, and Hicks have already gone through the trade waiver process. Surely other Yankees have as well. Now it’s just a question of whether the Yankees swing a deal to address their outfield (and first base) need.

Yankeemetrics: Welcome back bats, sweep Jays (Aug. 17-19)

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(AP)

Rain FTW
The Yankees snapped their mini losing streak and offensive slump with a rain-shortened 7-5 win over the Blue Jays in Friday’s opener. It was their first game called early because of weather since July 23, 2014 against the Rangers, a game that was stopped in the fifth.

Lance Lynn made sure that this would be a hard-earned comeback win as he got hammered by the Blue Jays in the first inning, surrendering four runs on three hits and three walks before the Yankees even got a chance to swing the bat. Regression is an unforgiving and terrible monster:

Lance Lynn as a Yankee
IP Runs K/BB Opp AVG
Friday 4 5 5/3 .353
First 3 Games 16.2 1 22/4 .200

It’s the first time the Yankees won a game after giving up four or more runs in the first inning since … May 3 last year against Toronto. The opposing starter that the Yankees pounded that day in the Bronx? Yup, Marcus Stroman, the same guy that the Yankees blitzed on Friday.

Didi Gregorius (RBI triple) and Miguel Andujar (RBI double) sparked the rally in the bottom of the first, quickly cutting the deficit to two runs. Gregorius’ triple was his fourth of the season, the same number he had in his previous three seasons combined with the team. Andujar’s two-bagger was his 35th of the season, putting the young third baseman in elite company.

Neil Walker turned a 4-2 deficit into a 5-4 advantage with one swing of the bat in the fourth inning. His three-run shot off Stroman was his seventh homer of the season but his first as a Yankee that gave the team a lead.

Giancarlo Stanton capped off the scoring with a mammoth solo shot to right-center in the bottom of the seventh, just before the rainstorm halted the game. It went a projected 431 feet, the fifth time this season he hit a homer of at least 430 feet to center or the opposite field, tied with Bryce Harper for the most in the majors through Friday.

(USA Today)

Bombers back in style
The Yankees continued to bash Blue Jays pitching, scoring in double digits for the first time in more than six weeks en route to a homer-fueled 11-6 win on Saturday. They hit four home runs, giving them 201 through 123 games played. The only team in MLB history to reach the 200-homer mark quicker was the 2005 Rangers, who needed 122 games.

Luis Severino, who entered the game still struggling through a deep month-plus slump, bounced back from a terrible outing against the Mets earlier in the week to throw one of his best starts since the beginning of July. Though he struggled with his pitch efficiency (needed 100 pitches to get 15 outs), and gave up a bunch of hard contact (5 of 12 balls in play had an exit velocity of 98-plus mph), he was able to limit the damage to two runs while getting eight strikeouts.

The most encouraging number might be zero, as in the number of home runs he allowed. It was his first clean outing since July 1, and he had coughed up 11 dingers in his previous seven games before Saturday. His fastball command seemed to be improved, as he mostly avoided the meatball four-seamers that had plagued him recently. Even when he did leave a few of them over the heart of the plate, he was able to generate a whiff or a foul, giving up just two singles on his heater.

Miguel Andujar hit the team’s 200th homer in the fifth inning, his 20th of the season. He is the fifth Yankee with at least 20 home runs, making the Yankees the only team in MLB with five 20-homer guys this season. Combined with his 36 doubles, Andujar is clearly putting up special numbers for a player as young as he is:

Another Happ-y day
The Yankees completed the three-game sweep and finished off their 11-game homestand with another easy blowout win on Sunday, 10-2. They’re now a season-high 32 games above .500, the first time they’ve reached that mark since they ended the 2011 season with a 97-65 record.

They put up nearly identical box score numbers as the previous game, exploding for 10 runs and 12 hits (had 11 runs and 11 hits on Saturday). This was the 629th game in the history of the Jays-Yanks rivalry, but the first time the Yankees scored at least 10 runs in back-to-back games against them.

The Yankees wasted no time in lighting up the scoreboard as the first six batters each scored in the opening frame before Kyle Higashioka flew out to center for the first out. You have to go back more than two decades to find the last time the Yankees scored at least six runs to start a game prior to making an out — on May 17, 1997 against the Rangers in Texas. The last time they did at at Yankee Stadium was September 25, 1990 against the Orioles.

(USA Today)

The big blow came off the bat of Greg Bird, who clobbered his second career grand slam — both of which have come in the last six weeks. He is just the fourth Yankee first baseman to hit multiple grand slams in a single season:

J.A. Happ got off to a rough start, giving up a two-out solo homer in the first inning, but then quickly regrouped and didn’t allow another run until Kendrys Morales took him deep to lead off the sixth. It wasn’t a gem, but Happ still pitched well enough (2 ER in 5 1/3 IP) to win for the fourth time in four starts with the team. The Yankees have won all seven games started by Lance Lynn and Happ this season. Finally, a couple #FunFacts to celebrate Happ’s time so far in pinstripes:

  • First pitcher to win each of his first four starts as a Yankee since David Cone in 1995…
  • …And the first to do it with an ERA as low as Happ’s (2.22) since Phil Niekro in 1984 (0.98)
  • The only other left-handers to win each of their first four starts as a Yankee (since 1908) were Rob Gardner (1970-72) and Babe Ruth (1920-33)