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An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

March 21, 2019 by Mike

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

Dellin Betances (shoulder)
Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
Aaron Hicks (back)
Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

Greg Bird
(huge gap)
Billy Burns
(tiny gap)
Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Greg Bird	LF Giancarlo Stanton	Masahiro Tanaka	CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine	1B Luke Voit	CF Brett Gardner	James Paxton	SU Zack Britton
	2B Gleyber Torres	RF Aaron Judge	J.A. Happ	SU Chad Green
	SS Troy Tulowitzki	UTIL Tyler Wade	Luis Cessa	SU Adam Ottavino
	3B Miguel Andujar			MR Jonathan Holder
	IF DJ LeMahieu			MR Tommy Kahnle
				MR Stephen Tarpley
				SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

The Aaron Hicks injury opens the door for Greg Bird to make the Opening Day roster

March 19, 2019 by Mike

Spring Training 2019 has not been kind to the Yankees. They lost Luis Severino to a shoulder injury that will sideline him until at least early-May, and over the weekend top prospect Estevan Florial broke his wrist crashing into the center field wall. That’s on top of Didi Gregorius and Jordan Montgomery rehabbing their new elbow ligaments.

The Yankees have also lost center fielder Aaron Hicks to a back issue that, to date, has required two cortisone shots and kept him out of Grapefruit League action since March 1st. Over the weekend Aaron Boone finally admitted what had become increasingly obvious: Hicks will have to begin the regular season on the injured list.

“He could avoid a full (injured list) stay at the big league level because obviously we can backdate him,” Boone said to Coley Harvey. “There’s still a little bit in there, and we just want to make sure this isn’t something that lingers during the season. Hopefully this will knock it out once and for all, but it will slow him down by a couple of days.”

Brett Gardner is the obvious candidate to play center field while Hicks is sidelined and, over the weekend, Tyler Wade played center in anticipation of backup duty. He’ll see more time out there this week. Clint Frazier could be a center field candidate as well, though that seems unlikely. He’s probably headed to Triple-A Scranton for regular at-bats after missing much of last season.

An outside acquisition can’t be ruled out but free agency has little to offer. Maybe a veteran on a minor league deal (Peter Bourjos?) or an out-of-options outfielder (Aaron Altherr?) shakes loose over the next few days. That’s the best hope right now. “I still don’t believe Hicks is going to miss that much time. I feel like we can handle it internally right now,” Boone said to Bryan Hoch.

Although carrying an extra outfielder (Billy Burns?) while Hicks is out is the easy and straightforward move, it is sounding more and more likely Greg Bird will take his spot on the roster. At least to me, it’s felt like the Yankees have been hoping to find a way to carry Bird and Luke Voit on the Opening Day roster, and now they have one.

“I think we’re looking at two impact players,” Boone said to Hoch regarding his two first basemen. “There’s probably more of a case now that both could be part of things. But I know that I’m looking at two really good players.”

Carrying two first base only players with an eight-man bullpen and three-man bench hardly qualifies as ideal roster construction. Injuries usually create roster headaches though, and with Hicks sidelined and Frazier looking awfully rusty this spring, Bird becomes the best Opening Day roster option almost by default. Let’s talk this out a bit.

1. The Hicks injury opens a lineup spot. With Hicks out, Gardner moves to center field and Giancarlo Stanton moves to left field. That’s the most likely arrangement. That opens up the DH spot and thus a regular lineup spot for Bird and his left-handed bat, something the Yankees could use (assuming he actually hits). A possible lineup:

CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
DH Luke Voit
3B Miguel Andujar
C Gary Sanchez
1B Greg Bird
2B Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki

That lineup is quite fungible. Boone could flip Gardner and Torres, or Sanchez and Torres, or Andujar and Torres, or Sanchez and Bird, or Judge and Stanton. Other than Judge and Stanton hitting eighth and ninth, I’m not sure there’s a “wrong” batting order with those players. Deep lineup is deep.

Point is, the Hicks injury opens a lineup spot and pushes Stanton into the outfield. The Yankees could give all those suddenly available DH at-bats to Bird, though I imagine DJ LeMahieu will be a factor as well. Replacing Hicks in center field is only part of it. They also have to replace him in the lineup, and Bird helps do that.

(Earlier this spring Boone said he considers Bird a better defender than Voit — my eyes agree with that — so chances are it would be Bird at first base and Voit at DH on days both are in the lineup.)

2. Wade’s versatility becomes that much more important. With Bird and Voit, the Yankees would be dedicating two of their 12 position player spots to first basemen. The Cardinals threw Voit in left field for a few games in Triple-A the last two years but nah, I don’t see that as a realistic option and neither do the Yankees given the fact they haven’t bothered to try it this spring. Could you imagine Voit in the outfield? Oy vey.

Wade seemed to have a bench spot locked down before the Hicks injury grew into something more than a minor nuisance. Since he can play the outfield, the Yankees can count on him as their fourth outfielder temporarily. If Wade couldn’t play the outfield, they’d have no choice but to use his roster spot on another outfielder with both Voit and Bird on the roster. That ability to play everywhere helps the Yankees and keeps Wade on the roster.

3. What happens when Hicks returns? Worry about it when the time comes. It’s a cop out, I know, but it’s the correct answer. These things always have a way of taking care of themselves. By time Hicks returns, there’s a chance someone else will have played his way down to Triple-A, making the roster decisions easy. Or the Yankees could’ve lost another player to injury. That’s baseball.

Boone said Hicks could be back for the second series of the regular season, but let’s be real here, they’ve underestimated the Hicks injury every step of the way. This went from “he’s day-to-day” in early-March to “two cortisone shots and he’s going to miss Opening Day” real quick. I’ll believe Hicks will be back for the second series when I see it. Bird may be on the roster longer than we think.

“This becomes an important week for us, just trying to evaluate and make the best decisions,” Boone said to Hoch. “We don’t think it’s going to be a long time for Hicks, but that’ll factor into it. How many pitchers we go with, how we can figure that, those will all be conversations that we have that will be ongoing throughout the week. But I would say, we haven’t decided anything yet.”

* * *

The Yankees love Bird and I am certain they want him to seize the opportunity created by the Hicks injury and run with it. They want to have to make a difficult first base decision at some point. At this point I need to see Bird stay healthy and produce for more than, like, five games at a time to buy into him as potential impact piece. There is upside here though, and there figure to be DH at-bats available now. The Hicks injury is Bird’s latest chance to show the club he’s worth keeping around.

Where does each 2019 Yankee hit the ball the hardest?

March 14, 2019 by Mike

In the year 2019, exit velocity is firmly ingrained in the baseball lexicon. It is inescapable. It’s all over Twitter and game broadcasts, and the Yankees literally show exit velocity on the Yankee Stadium scoreboard. Each time a Yankee puts the ball in play, there’s the exit velocity, right next to the pitch velocity on the center field scoreboard. Get used to it. Exit velocity isn’t going anywhere.

The Yankees have embraced exit velocity as an evaluation tool. It helped them unearth Luke Voit, and I remember former farm system head Gary Denbo mentioning Aaron Judge had premium exit velocity back when he was still a prospect in the minors. Hit the ball hard and good things happen. Here is the 2018 exit velocity leaderboard (min. 200 balls in play):

Aaron Judge: 94.7 mph
Joey Gallo: 93.9 mph
Nelson Cruz: 93.9 mph
Giancarlo Stanton: 93.7 mph
Matt Chapman: 93.1 mph
(MLB average: 87.7 mph)

Hitting the ball hard is a good skill to have. I mean, duh. Hit the ball hard and it’s more likely to go for a hit. Hit the ball hard in the air and it’s more likely to do serious damage, meaning extra-base hits. Last season the league hit .730 with a 1.098 ISO — that’s ISO, not SLG — on fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. For real.

Not surprisingly, the home run record-setting Yankees led MLB with a 93.6 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives last season. With that in mind, let’s look at where each projected member of the 2019 Yankees hit the ball the hardest last year. Specifically, let’s look at where in the strike zone they produce their best contact. Some guys are low ball hitters, others are high ball hitters, etc.

For the purposes of this post, we’re going to consider “best contact” to be fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. Why 100 mph and not, say, 95 mph or 97.6 mph or whatever? No real reason. Round numbers are cool so 100 mph it is. Here is each projected 2019 Yankee, listed alphabetically, and last year’s “best contact” profile.

(All spray chart are shown with Yankee Stadium’s dimensions even though not every batted ball was hit at Yankee Stadium, which is why there appear to be more homers than were actually hit.)

Miguel Andujar

Average FB+LD exit velocity: 92.7 mph
Number of 100+ mph FB+LD: 65 (13.5% of all balls in play)

I am legitimately surprised Andujar’s exit velocity numbers are not better. His average exit velocity on all batted balls was 89.2 mph, which ranked 72nd among the 186 hitters with at least 300 balls in play last year. His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives ranked 128th (!), right behind Manny Margot and one-tenth of a mile-an-hour better than JaCoby Jones. Huh. Didn’t expect that.

Anyway, the strike zone plot above shows Andujar makes hard contact pretty much everywhere. That makes sense. He seems to get the fat part of the bat on the ball no matter where it’s pitched. Most of his 100 mph or better fly balls and line drives are to the pull field, like most hitters, though Andujar can drive the ball the other way. I’m still a bit surprised his exit velocity are numbers are relatively low (but still better than average). Didn’t see that coming. Maybe that means he’s due for bad regression?

[Read more…]

Four things we’ve learned about the 2019 Yankees so far in Spring Training

March 5, 2019 by Mike

In three weeks and two days the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. They are a week and a half into their Grapefruit League season and, so far, no one has gotten hurt. That is the most important thing right now. The pitchers are getting stretched out and the hitters are still working to get their timing down. The single most important thing on March 5th is good health.

Spring Training numbers are full of lies. Tyler Wade’s .333/.412/.733 batting line doesn’t mean anything, and I say that as a Wade fan. J.A. Happ’s 20.25 ERA is no big deal. Spring Training performance is generally meaningless and yet, each and every year teams base roster decisions on spring numbers. Not major decisions, it’s usually only one of the last roster spots, but spring performance does sometimes dictate roster decisions.

The Yankees, thankfully, do not have many roster spots up for grabs this winter. We don’t have to worry about them reading too much into Grapefruit League numbers and taking the wrong guy north. That said, not everything we see in spring is meaningless and we have learned some things about the 2019 Yankees from their nine exhibition games to date. Here are four things we’ve learned so far.

Tulowitzki might actually have something left in the tank

Coming into camp, it was impossible to know what Troy Tulowitzki had to offer the Yankees. He’s battled injuries throughout his career and he hadn’t played in a competitive game since July 2017, and he’s also 34 now, which is where you’d expect normal age-related decline to become a factor as well. The Yankees decided to roll the dice on the Blue Jays’ dime because hey, why not? If it works, great. If not, then no big deal.

Tulowitzki took Marcus Stroman deep in his very first Grapefruit League at-bat this year, which made for great schadenfreude, but the home run was only a little poke just inside the right field foul pole. That ball probably sails foul if it were, say, 320 feet down the line rather than 314 feet. The more telling homer came in Tulowitzki’s next game, when he yanked a ball over the wall in the left-center field gap:

At his best throughout his career, Tulowitzki has been a (mostly) pull hitter who gets the ball in the air, and that’s the Tulowitzki we saw on that home run. The ball is jumping off his bat in the super early going (3-for-6 with two homers and a double), which sure as heck beats the alternative, that being his bat looking old and slow. Also, Tulowitzki has looked pretty good at shortstop thus far. He’s made some non-routine plays.

“More than (the homers), the way he’s moving in the field,” said Aaron Boone to Erik Boland when asked what most excites him about Tulowitzki. “It’s great to get some early results and get some homers out of the gate. But I’m probably more excited about how he’s moving in the field and how he’s attacking the ball and playing free and easy. He looks really athletic out there. I think that’s the thing I’m even more excited about.”

After that long layoff, it would’ve been understandable if Tulowitzki came out of the gate looking rusty and sluggish. The guy hadn’t played in 20 months, after all. It would’ve been understandable and also concerning because the Yankees have Tulowitzki penciled in as their regular shortstop. Sliding Gleyber Torres over to shortstop and putting DJ LeMahieu at second base is a fine backup plan. Clearly, the best Yankees roster includes a productive Tulowitzki.

If nothing else, Tulowitzki has shown there is still some life in his bat, and that playing shortstop is not a pipe dream. He’s given everyone a reason to keep paying it attention. Will this last? Who knows. History suggests Tulowitzki will get hurt at some point. Tulowitzki came to camp as an unknown and the first impression is good. We’ve seen signs of a productive player, not someone who looks like he missed the last 20 months.

“I have a lot of work ahead of me,” said Tulowitzki to Bryan Hoch following his second homer. “Two games; I need to be out there more, see more pitchers, just be on my feet more. But I’ll take it. It’s a good start. I’m just having fun, man. It was a long road for me, so every time I step out there on the field, I don’t take it for granted. I’m trying to enjoy every moment.”

Bird is healthy

Greg Bird is a Grapefruit League Hall of Famer. He’s hitting .462/.533/.923 with three doubles and one home run through 15 plate appearances this spring and is a career .319/.420/.674 hitter in Spring Training. Bird has never carried his spring performance over into the regular season because he’s never actually made it through Spring Training healthy as a big leaguer. The last three years:

2016: Had shoulder surgery and missed Spring Training.
2017: Fouled a pitch off his foot at the end of camp and tried to play through it in April.
2018: Started the season on the disabled list after dealing with ankle soreness in camp.

Bird was impossibly lost last year after returning from his second ankle surgery in two years — he hit .135/.210/.260 (26 wRC+) after August 1st last season and looked every bit as bad as those numbers suggest — and the fact of the matter is the 2017 postseason is the only time in the last three years Bird was a productive big leaguer. Otherwise he’s been hurt or bad or both.

Through nine Grapefruit League games, we know Bird is healthy. Or at least he looks healthy, anyway. That’s a start. The numbers are nice, especially since he’s driving the ball the other way with authority …

… but I’ve been fooled by Greg Bird crushing the ball in March too many times already. The most important thing is health. It all starts there. And right now, Bird looks healthy. There looks to be more bat speed than there was at any point last year and he’s been nibble at first base. Bird is in Tulowitzki territory at this point in that it’s fair to wonder how long this will last, because history suggests it won’t. For now it’s so far, so good. This is the start Bird needed and the start the Yankees wanted to see.

“I’ve just been enjoying it, to be honest,” said Bird to Ken Davidoff about his Spring Training. “That’s it. It’s still early. We’ve got a lot of camp left. Long season. I’m excited. I’m excited for the team we have.”

The last two bullpen spots aren’t really up for grabs

Ah yes, a good ol’ fake Spring Training competition. Fake, rigged, whatever you want to call it. The Yankees have been known to do this from time to time. Make it appear a roster spot(s) is up for grabs even though they made their decision a long time ago. Hey, there’s nothing wrong with it. Competition brings out the best in people and there’s no harm in keeping players motivated.

The Yankees currently have two open bullpen spots behind Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, and Adam Ottavino. Barring injury, those two spots are going to Luis Cessa and Tommy Kahnle. They’re both out of minor league options, so they can’t go to Triple-A without passing through waivers, and there’s no chance either would clear. The roster mechanics factor into the decision at least somewhat.

Aaron Boone talked up Kahnle over the weekend — “That’s the best I’ve seen him throw since I’ve been here … That was exciting to see,” he said to Brendan Kuty following Kahnle’s three up, three down, three strikeouts performance Friday — and said his fastball sat in the 95-97 mph range without much effort. That’s very encouraging for early March. Last season Kahnle’s fastball averaged 95.5 mph and he put everything he had into each pitch.

As for Cessa, the Yankees very clearly like him, and they will need a swingman/sixth starter type on Opening Day. He has allowed one run in five innings this spring — “I try not to think about (being out of options). The last two years I put too much pressure on myself to make the team. Right now I will do my job and pitch,” Cessa said to George King recently — but it’s five innings. Who cares? Still, Boone is talking Cessa up like he is Kahnle.

“We believe he can fill (the swingman) role really effectively. It’s important for him to come out and pitch well, but we really like where he’s at and how he’s throwing the ball right now. I think he’s going to play a big role for us this year,” said Boone to Erik Boland recently. “I think he’s going to play a big role for us this year” is definitely not something that gets said about a guy who is fighting for a roster spot.

Beyond Boone’s words, Kahnle’s and Cessa’s usage is telling. Kahnle is getting the veteran reliever treatment and pitching early in games, against actual big leaguers. Cessa is working as a starter and getting stretched out. So to is Domingo German, which is only smart, but he has an option remaining. Other bullpen hopefuls, specifically Stephen Tarpley, have been pitching later in Grapefruit League games. They’re further down on the priority list.

Injuries can always change things and keep in mind the Opening Day bullpen is just that, the Opening Day bullpen. The bullpen will change throughout the season. Right now, the Yankees are talking and acting like a team that has already decided Kahnle and Cessa are getting the final two bullpen spots. Kahnle is worth an extended look to see whether he can get back to his 2017 form, and Cessa being out of options gives him a leg up over German.

Sabathia won’t be ready for Opening Day

This is something I think we all knew would be the case coming into the camp, but now it is official. CC Sabathia is working his way back following his annual offseason knee cleanup and also his December angioplasty. His offseason program was interrupted and he reported to camp behind the other pitchers. He started throwing bullpen sessions last Friday. Unless the Yankees rush him, which they would never do, Sabathia won’t be ready for Opening Day.

“We haven’t mapped out a timetable yet, but I have plenty of time (to get ready for the season),” said the perpetually optimistic Sabathia to Bryan Hoch and George King recently. “After I got the clearance from the doctor to start working out, I started working out pretty heavy. I knew coming down here I would feel good. I felt fine playing catch, getting on the mound the other day felt great and today, so I’ll just keep progressing. I feel great.”

Assuming Sabathia starts the season on the injured list rather than simply serving his five-game suspension, the Yankees will need someone to make two spot starts in April, and this probably means both Cessa and German will make the Opening Day roster. One will make the spot starts and the other will be the long man in the bullpen. Once Sabathia is activated, German goes to Triple-A and Cessa moves into the bullpen full-time. Something like that.

As long as the weather cooperates the Yankees can very easily arrange their early season rotation in such a way that Sabathia’s replacement makes his first four starts against the Tigers, Orioles, White Sox, and Royals. The schedule works in their favor. The Yankees can give Sabathia as much time as he needs while running their sixth starter out there against some truly terrible teams. That’s the best case scenario given the circumstances, really.

Coming into camp, there was a tiny sliver of hope Sabathia would be ready for the start of the regular season. That is definitely not the case now. That question has been answered. Sabathia is only now starting his usual spring routine. The Yankees have to figure out who will fill in as the fifth starter in the early going (I’d put money on Cessa) and prepare accordingly.

Two first basemen trending in opposite directions [2019 Season Preview]

February 28, 2019 by Derek Albin

First base has been a position of strength for the Yankees for almost as long as I can recall. I was a little too young to remember Don Mattingly, but I essentially have seen the team go from Tino Martinez to Jason Giambi to Mark Teixeira without many issues. Like many others, I thought Greg Bird was next in line after a stellar debut in 2015, but that’s now a distant memory. He has quite a bit of ground to make up on Luke Voit, who practically appeared out of thin air last summer and dominated.

Voit could become the actual long-term successor to Teixeira, even though there were a few seasons between the two’s careers in pinstripes. That’s not to say that all hope is lost for Bird, despite a lack of hitting and a litany of injuries in recent years. His career is still young, but Voit may have Wally Pipped him. There is technically an open competition for the position in camp, but Voit certainly has a leg up.

Can they coexist?

Even though Bird and Voit make for a natural platoon based on their handedness, Aaron Boone doesn’t envision that this season. Both players have options and can be sent to Triple-A, so the loser of the first base competition this spring could be destined for Scranton. Of course, it’s Voit’s job to lose, and understandably so. He killed it last summer after the trade while Bird floundered. The front office has made it clear that they’ve liked Voit for a while, too.

If a platoon isn’t in play, there’s only one other way the two could be on the same big league roster. One could play first while the other could be the designated hitter. Doing that would require Giancarlo Stanton to play left field, meaning that Brett Gardner would ride the bench. This would essentially make Gardner a full-time bench player, because such an alignment would likely be against right-handed pitchers. Gardner is really bad against southpaws now, so it’s not like he’d make sense to play against lefties when Bird sits.

It might not be bad for Gardner to assume the fourth outfielder role full-time, but that would indeed require Bird to re-emerge (and Voit to maintain his output). Bird’s already off to a good start this spring, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet. In all likelihood, one of the two first basemen will be in Triple-A come opening day. My money is on Bird heading there.

Bird’s last gasp?

Not much has gone in Bird’s favor since the 2015 season ended. Shoulder surgery cost him his 2016 campaign. The excitement for his return in 2017 was crushed after he suffered an ankle injury in an exhibition game, which followed him throughout the year and hindered his performance. At least we have that playoff homer against Andrew Miller. 2018 was more of the same with injuries and poor performance. Bird is still 26, but it’s been a while since he’s been consistently good.

As mentioned, Bird still has options so he can (and likely will) be sent to the minors to the start the year. The Yankees don’t necessarily have to make a decision on his future with the organization yet, though it would behoove Bird to stay on the field and hit. Not just for his chances to stick with the Yankees, but for other opportunities around the league. If Voit is who he appears to be, Bird won’t get the job back, but he could impress another team enough to trade for him.

The Yankees can afford to be patient with Bird, too. He has multiple options and can’t refuse a minor league assignment as he is short of five years of service. Somehow, even though it feels like he’s been around forever, he’s accumulated just over three years of major league time. If the team wants to hang on to him this season and beyond, they can. Some extended time in the minors this season might be good for Bird to regain confidence anyway.

What if Bird rakes in the Grapefruit League? He’s already off to a fast start. Even if that continues throughout the next month or so, it’ll take other circumstances to get him on the roster. As noted before, alignment would be a challenge with both him and Voit in the lineup, especially if a platoon isn’t an option. In other words, it’s going to take an injury for him to start the season in the Bronx. Even if Voit struggles in camp, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees making a judgement on Voit over a poor spring.

Voit might be really, really good

I don’t think anyone is expecting Voit to rake like he did after the trade deadline last summer (187 wRC+), but he also doesn’t appear to be some flash in the pan. The front office coveted Voit long before the deal. His minor league performance was always great and his underlying quality of contact metrics were stellar. All he really needed was a chance to capitalize on. The Yankees gave him just that.

Statcast absolutely adores Voit, and I think it’s safe to say that similar data is what attracted the Yankees to him. He was all over the batted ball leaderboards last season. How about some visual proof? I know we’re not supposed to read into anything that happens in spring training, but that home run against the Rays on Sunday was pretty awesome.

Voit pummeled that high-90s fastball from Ryan Stanek. Good to see that his Sammy Sosa hop is in mid-season form, by the way.

I’ll dive into the projections in a minute, but I should note that they don’t see him as a fluke. All systems have him as a comfortably above average hitter. One forecast in particular believes he’s one of baseball’s best hitters. It sure sounds like the Yankees knew what they were doing when they targeted him last summer.

Now, there’s always a chance that the league figures out Voit. Maybe he really is your classic Quad-A slugger that happened to run into a hot streak at the big league level. Guys who are in their late twenties with limited major league exposure don’t often become significant contributors. If he flames out over the next few months, the Yankees better hope that Bird capable. Otherwise, hello full-time first baseman DJ LeMahieu.

Projections

Voit

PECOTA: .280/.350/.506 (127 DRC+), 21 home runs, 2.6 WARP in 460 plate appearances
ZiPS: .264/.344/.474 (116 OPS+), 22 home runs, 1.9 WAR in 483 plate appearances
Steamer: .262/.336/.458 (115 wRC+), 19 home runs, 1.4 WAR in 449 plate appearances

Over at Baseball Prospectus, I mentioned that Voit was one of my favorite PECOTA projections for 2019. The system thinks he’s the 22nd best hitter in baseball! What a score for the front office if that’s truly the case. Even if he’s not that high up, the other projections are more than respectable. Getting this caliber of a hitter for Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos would be a remarkable heist. Even if he’s not as good as PECOTA indicates, I think we’d all be happy with the performance ZiPS and Steamer expect.

One cool thing about PECOTA are some of the player comps it spits out. 2015 Nate Freiman (DNP) and 2011 Steve Pearce (76 DRC+) are the top two guys, which isn’t exciting. However, the player who caught my eye was 2018 Jesus Aguilar. He’s Voit’s sixth-best comp, but very close to those ahead of him. Aguilar was pretty awesome last season as a 28 year-old right-handed and stocky first baseman in his first full season (135 DRC+). That description sound familiar? I wouldn’t mind Voit doing that in his age 28 year, this one.

Bird

PECOTA: .234/.312/.421 (88 DRC+), 7 home runs, 0.0 WARP in 193 plate appearances
ZiPS: .224/.317/.444 (101 OPS+), 16 home runs, 0.6 WAR in 350 plate appearances
Steamer: .227/.315/.435 (102 wRC+), 12 home runs, 0.3 WAR in 210 plate appearances

Once again, PECOTA deviates from the other systems, this time in the opposite direction. It’s pessimistic one of the bunch. Not that ZiPS or Steamer are optimistic, of course. He wouldn’t be worthy of much playing time even if he met the other two projections.

Interestingly enough, even though PECOTA is down on Bird, his comps are better than Voit’s. The top one is 2006 Adam LaRoche (123 DRC+). His fifth, sixth, and seventh top comps are very good too: 2012 Mitch Moreland (111 DRC+), 2007 Justin Morneau (117 DRC+), 2008 Adrian Gonzalez (132 DRC+). Sign me up for any of those seasons. Still, it seems odd to get those as some of his top comps despite a poor projection. There are some less than stellar comps in there too (Mike Jacobs and Matt LaPorta), but the good ones outnumber the bad.

Final Thoughts

I’m pretty high on Voit and think he’s going to have no issue holding off Bird. To me, it’s pretty encouraging to see a few projection systems marry up with his Statcast metrics and the Yankees’ internal evaluations. There will be some understandable skepticism considering how few career major league opportunities he’s had, but all signs point to him as a good, perhaps great, hitter.

Meanwhile, I’ve lost quite a bit of hope in Bird. Even though he’s hitting well in a handful of spring games, I don’t want to get excited again. He really hasn’t done anything productive over an extended period since 2015, which was a long while ago. Plus, I don’t have much faith in him staying healthy. I hope I’m wrong.

Beyond Bird and Voit: A primer on the Yankees’ backup first base options

February 21, 2019 by Steven Tydings

For the last three seasons, the Yankees have had one of the worst first base situations in baseball.

Greg Bird’s injury history has a lot to do with it. The team is 27th in first base WAR since the start of 2016 with Bird missing all of 2016 and parts of the last two seasons.

While the team still didn’t get elite production at first last season, they were middle of the pack thanks to the unexpected mashing of Luke Voit. The Yankees were 16th in 1B WAR last year and Voit produced 1.9 of it in just 39 games.

However, Voit is far from a sure thing. He had a remarkable 148 plate appearances last year and some projections are bullish on his production, as Bobby noted recently, but is he really a middle-of-the-order masher? There’s a strong chance he’s just a flash in the pan.

And if Voit is a flash in the pan and Bird can’t get back on track, what do the Yankees do? What’s the backup plan? Certainly, they’ll each get every opportunity to win the job, particularly Bird as the lefty-power hitter the lineup needs. But what’s the backup plan?

That’s worth trying to suss out.

1. D.J. LeMahieu

When the Yankees signed LeMahieu in January, it was with the idea that he would be a multi-positional player who could fill in all around the infield. In theory, that’s great. He’s played all the positions before … in 2014.

Since 2014, LeMahieu has been a Gold Glove second baseman and nothing but. He hasn’t played another position and it’s a tremendous question mark whether he can maintain his value as a steady glove when moved to the corner infield. Would his range be a real asset at first? There’s even the question whether his unfamiliarity at first could make him a negative there.

The fielding questions come long before you dive into his hitting. Outside of his batting title in 2016, he’s been a mediocre hitter and worse outside Coors Field. That sounds like more of the same from what the Yankees have gotten at first base.

Then there’s the doomsday scenario: What if Troy Tulowitzki can’t stay healthy or produce while both Voit and Bird fail in short order? LeMahieu would need to shift over to second base to help cover Tulo, forcing the Yankees into keeping a below-average first base situation. Unless you move someone else across the diamond…

Looking for something? (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

2. Miguel Andujar

In that doomsday scenario, Andujar would still need to play third base. But let’s say the team can shift things around and Andujar becomes the backup at first base. Can he even play the position?

Andujar’s foibles at third base are well documented. He struggled on reads, was slow in making throws and didn’t have the proper footwork, leading to errors or balls skirting through the infield. Moving him down the defensive spectrum to first base eliminate some of his throws but places him back into an unfamiliar spot with balls coming at him just as quick. In terms of scooping balls at first, he can’t be too familiar, though that’s hardly a deal breaker after watching Voit butcher a few throws.

Andujar can at least hit the part at first base, but it doesn’t sound like the team is too keen on trying him opposite the hot corner. In his introductory spring press conference, Aaron Boone shied away from committing to Andujar playing any first this spring, so thrusting him into action in the regular season becomes almost out of the question.

So who’s after Andujar?

3. Other in-house options

Seriously, who?

On the active roster, Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine have first base experience in the majors. Sanchez only played three innings there in 2017 and didn’t look all that comfortable. Romine rated well by UZR in 80 innings across 2016 and ’17, but he doesn’t hit at a level of an everyday player.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are likely destined for first base and DH duties late in their career but not in the short term. Both play a capable corner outfield at this stage and neither has first base experience.

In the upper minors, there’s no intriguing prospect. Mike Ford and Ryan McBroom have each hit well in Trenton and Scranton over the last couple years, though each is past prospect status in their late 20s. Could either go on a Voit or Shelley Duncan-style streak in the Majors? Sure! But sustained success is questionable, even if Ford could give you some two-way dreams.

If all else fails, what about outside the organization?

4. Trade or free agency

There was one big fish — Paul Goldschmidt — on the trade market this offseason and he’s been reeled in by St. Louis. The rest are slim pickings.

Free agency doesn’t do much better. Brad Miller is three years removed from a 30-homer season and hasn’t been all that productive since in addition to some fielding woes. Logan Forsythe played a little first for the Dodgers the last two years, but he hasn’t hit enough to justify a signing. Beyond them, want a flyer on Logan Morrison? Hanley Ramirez? Meh.

By July, there might be a few more first base options popping up. A Wilmer Flores or Justin Bour might be available, as could a reunion with new Marlin Neil Walker. The only name that stands out would be Giants first baseman Brandon Belt.

At 30, Belt is no longer a spring chicken and has struggled around injuries since his 2016 All-Star appearance, albeit while still posting above-average numbers. His plate discipline and glove play in any park and his lefty bat might play especially well at Yankee Stadium. He’s signed for three more seasons at $17.2 million per year, so he wouldn’t come cheap.

Conclusion

If the Yankees are going to finally get better-than-average production from first base, it’s going to be Voit or Bird. The team’s other options are few and murky at that, so riding it out with that combo is the hand the Bombers are forced to play.

It might turn out great! Bird is finally coming off a healthy offseason and Voit could be for real, at least to an extent.

But even if the Yankees need to carry a less-than-stellar first baseman, they can survive just like they have the last few years. Bird and Voit were key down the stretch the last two years and a power-hitting first baseman certainly helps, but it’s hardly a requirement for winning a championship. Still, it’d be nice if it works out.

Five takeaways from the 2019 Yankees ZiPS projections

February 20, 2019 by Mike

Spring Training is underway and that means two things. One, baseball is back! Hooray for that. And two, prospect ranking season and projection season have arrived. We’ve already seen a ton of prospect rankings. Earlier this week, Dan Szymborski released his ZiPS projections for the 2019 Yankees. The fancy graphic above shows the team’s WAR projection by position. Spoiler. The Yankees project to be very good. I don’t think we needed ZiPS to tell us that.

Obligatory reminder: Projections are not predictions. They are an attempt to estimate the player’s current talent level. There are more projection systems out there than I care to count and they all go about it in different ways. Is one better than the other? Eh, not really. ZiPS is my preferred projection system so that’s what I’m going to write about. Here are five things that stand out to me about the 2019 Yankees ZiPS projections.

1. LeMahieu should play over Tulowitzki. Not sure you need a projection system to see this. Tulowitzki hasn’t played since July 2017 and, the last time he did play, he wasn’t very good. He hit .249/.300/.378 (79 wRC+) in 66 games before getting hurt. Also, Tulowitzki is 34 now. Even if he were perfectly healthy, he’s at the point where you’d expect age-related decline. Aren’t teams avoiding free agents this age? Not when they’re essentially free, I guess.

ZiPS pegs Tulowitzki as a below-average offense (77 OPS+) and league-average defense (+0 runs) player who projects out to +0.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances. It has LeMahieu as a below-average hitter as well (93 OPS+), but not that far below average, and it likes his defense too (+5 runs). The total package projects out to +2.2 WAR per 600 plate appearances. That is not an insignificant difference. Not in what could be a tight AL East race.

I totally understand why the Yankees are rolling the dice on Tulowitzki. I don’t understand why they’re seemingly so dedicated to him as their starting shortstop. “We’re planning on him playing shortstop and focusing solely there,” said Aaron Boone last week. In a perfect world the Yankees would give Tulowitzki a look in camp and a few weeks in the regular season. If he performs well, great, keep him. If not, I hope they don’t hesitate to move on. Not with LeMahieu ready to step in.

2. First base should be okay. Not great, but okay. PECOTA loves Luke Voit. That system has him as the 22nd best hitter in baseball in 2019. ZiPS is not that optimistic, though it sees a .264/.344/.474 (116 OPS+) batting line with 22 homers and +1.9 WAR in just under 500 plate appearances. That slash line looks like peak Joey Votto compared to what the Yankees have gotten at first base since Mark Teixeira’s last great year in 2015:

2016: .212/.293/.380 (71 OPS+)
2017: .244/.317/.444 (83 OPS+)
2018: .234/.309/.453 (96 OPS+)

ZiPS has never been all that high on Greg Bird — it projected him for +1.9 WAR total from 2017-18 — and this year it projects him for a .224/.317/.444 (101 OPS+) line and +0.6 WAR in 350 plate appearance. Probably not good enough to start at first base for a contending team, in other words. First basemen collectively hit .253/.333/.438 (112 OPS+) last season, their worst season since 1953 and fifth worst season on record. They (relatively) stink right now. Voit’s projection is middle of the pack relative to the rest of the league. For the Yankees, middle of the pack at first base would be a massive upgrade over the last three years.

3. A historic bullpen projection. The +7.9 WAR projection you see in the graphic atop the post is the highest bullpen projection ZiPS has ever spit out*. The previous record? The 2018 Yankees at +7.7 WAR. ZiPS projected the bullpen for +7.7 WAR last year and they finished the season at +9.7 WAR, making it the best bullpen in baseball history (per fWAR). (The Yankees also set a record with a 30.2% bullpen strikeout rate last year.)

* For what it’s worth, Szymborski says the bullpen projection would’ve been +8.3 WAR had the Yankees kept David Robertson rather than sign Adam Ottavino. Zack Britton (+0.8 WAR projected) over Robertson is the one that irks me though, not Ottavino (+0.9 WAR projected) over Robertson.

Bullpens are notoriously volatile but that doesn’t reduce the value of having high-end talent. Ottavino is more likely to be an above-average setup man this season than, say, Joe Harvey. Britton is a better bet to be a high ground ball lefty than Stephen Tarpley. When you’re the Yankees and you can throw money at the best available players, you should do it, and they did it with the bullpen. No, the bullpen is not guaranteed to meet (or beat) projections. ZiPS tells us they have an awful lot of relief talent though, and I’d rather bet on expensive talent than cobbling together seven or eight cheap arms and hoping for the best.

4. Does Green’s projection match reality? The best individual player projection in that stacked bullpen belongs not to five-time All-Star Aroldis Chapman or high-priced free agent Zack Britton. It belongs to Chad Green. ZiPS pegs Green as a true talent 2.70 ERA (2.77 FIP) pitcher with great strikeout (30.7%) and walk (6.4%) numbers. I have to think his +1.7 WAR projection is among the very best for relievers around the league this year.

ZiPS uses statistically similar players (weighing more recent seasons the heaviest) and aging curves to generate its projections. The system is aware of injuries but not necessarily how a player produces his results. For all ZiPS knows, Chapman throws 89 mph. In Green’s case, he is a one-pitch pitcher, and that one pitch was less effective last year than it was the year before. The breakdown of Green’s heater:

	Avg Velocity	Spin Rate	Whiffs-per-Swing	xwOBA
2017	95.8 mph	2,484 rpm	39.8%	.216
2018	96.1 mph	2,444 rpm	27.9%	.290

Same velocity, same spin, fewer whiffs, better contact allowed. It should be noted Green’s fastball still had a much better than average whiff rate (20.5% league average) and expected wOBA allowed (.347), but the pitch was not as effective as it was a year prior. Watching him pitch, it seemed to me the book was out on Green. Hitters knew they were likely getting a fastball and they geared up for it.

ZiPS doesn’t know Green lives and dies by his fastball. It doesn’t know he could use a better second pitch to keep hitters honest. He doesn’t need a Dellin Betances curveball or an Adam Ottavino slider. Just something good enough that hitters must respect it. I expect Green to be very good this season, but unless he comes up with a better slider or changeup, I don’t think he’ll be as good as he was in 2017, and maybe not as good as he was in 2018. He strikes me as the reliever most likely to fall short of his ZiPS projection. (Also, ZiPS says Green’s top statistical comp is Hall of Famer Rollie Fingers, and he should absolutely grow the mustache.)

5. Projections as a measure of depth. I like using ZiPS to estimate each team’s depth. Last year the Yankees had 27 (!) players projected for at least +1 WAR. I know a +1 WAR player isn’t all that exciting, but when you have a lot of them, your internal replacement level is pretty high. It means you have some good players stashed in Triple-A. You’re not scraping the bottom of the barrel when you need an injury replacement.

I like to look at each team’s depth at three levels: +1 WAR (okay players), +2 WAR (league average players), and +4 WAR (comfortably above-average players). Simply put, how many of each does each team have? The more the better, obviously. Here’s my spreadsheet (we’re still waiting for the White Sox and Padres projections) and I should note I removed unsigned free agents. The Red Sox don’t get credit for Craig Kimbrel, the Astros don’t get credit for Marwin Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel, etc. Here are the Yankees and their ranks:

+1 WAR players: 22 (tenth most)
+2 WAR players: 12 (third most)
+4 WAR players: 3 (fifth most)

This isn’t a perfect measure because ZiPS doesn’t worry about doling out playing time (are Jed Lowrie and Todd Frazier both really going to get 450 at-bats?) and the timing can be not great (Edwin Encarnacion was still with Cleveland when the Indians ZiPS were released) but it’s a good ballpark estimate. I’m surprised the Yankees are only tenth in +1 WAR players, especially behind teams like the Twins and Diamondbacks. Huh. Only the Cardinals and Mets have more +2 WAR players. They have 13 apiece. With the farm system thinned out a bit, especially at the upper levels, the Yankees don’t have quite the +1 WAR depth as the last two years. The top of the roster is very strong though, and the Yankees have good depth, at least according to ZiPS.