Greg Bird Archives - Page 10 of 34

The Other Middle of the Order Hitter [2018 Season Preview]

February 27, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

The coming season represents take three for Greg Bird’s first full season in pinstripes. That may seem a bit misleading, if not an outright exaggeration, but that is how the 25-year-old’s career has progressed thus far. Bird was slated to be the team’s starting first baseman in 2016, but was felled by a torn labrum that February, and didn’t take an at-bat until that year’s Arizona Fall League. He raked in last year’s Spring Training (.451/.556/1.098 with 8 home runs), and batted third in the team’s Opening Day lineup. To say that things were looking up would have been an understatement.

And then Bird hit .100/.250/.200 through May 1. He was placed on the DL with an ankle injury the next day, underwent surgery for said injury in July, and didn’t appear in another game until August 26. It was very nearly another lost season, and it was riff with questions about both Bird’s durability and his commitment to winning and/or the team. That latter part was inane, to say the least – but his inability to stay on the field was disconcerting, to say the least. Nevertheless, with a month and change left in the season and the playoffs all but guaranteed, the stage was set for Bird to remind us of his potential.

He Is Who We Thought He Was

Bird went 1-for-4 with a walk in his first game back, and that effectively set the tone for the rest of the regular season. He hit .253/.316/.575 (128 wRC+) with 8 HR in 98 PA as the Yankees sailed into the playoffs, closing the season by reaching base safely in ten straight games. And that was essentially the baseline that he established in his big league debut back in 2015. To wit:

2015 debut: .261/.343/.529, 10.7% BB, 29.8% K, .268 ISO, 21.9% LD, 51.5% FB
2017 post-injury: .253/.316/.575, 9.2% BB, 20.4% K, .322 ISO, 21.7% LD, 47.8% FB

The most noteworthy difference once adjusting for the difference in offensive levels is the strikeout rate, which went from well below-average to a tick above-average (in the right direction). The usual small sample size caveats apply, but it’s a good sign nonetheless. And his strong performance (and then some) continued into the playoffs, as he batted .244/.426/.512 with 3 HR in 54 postseason plate appearances.

Fun With Selective Endpoints

We can’t just write off Bird’s awful performance in the first month of 2017; at the same time, however, we know that he was hurt within the first few games of the season, and it was clear that he was playing hurt. With that in mind, here are his “healthy numbers:” .256/.348/.540, 22 HR, 12.1% BB, 27.2% BB in 330 PA. That’s a summation of 2015, post-injury 2017, and the 2017 postseason, and it’s not too far off from Gary Sanchez’s 2017 (.278/.345/.531, which was good for a 130 wRC+).

The clearest data point in favor of Bird playing hurt, for what it’s worth, is exit velocity. His 2015 average exit velocity was 93.0 MPH, which ranked fourth in the majors among players with at least 100 batted ball events. Prior to hitting the DL last year, his exit velocity sat at 87.7 MPH, which is right around the league-average. Bird’s exit velocity rebounded in a big way following his return, sitting at 91.1 MPH down the stretch, and then right around 92 MPH in the playoffs. Exit velocity isn’t everything, but the fact that Bird’s is clearly on another level when he’s healthy is an important consideration.

Even with that horrendous month, which represents a tick over 20% of his career plate appearances, Bird is a career .227/.316/.477 (112 wRC+) hitter. The average first baseman has posted a 111 wRC+ over the last three seasons, so a pragmatic outlook may simply be that he’s basically an average producer at the position with the highest offensive baseline in he league. And that’s not all that bad.

The Projection Systems

Steamer: .253/.342/.492, 26 HR, 11.2% BB, 22.1% K, 483 PA
ZiPS: .240/.333/.480, 19 HR, 11.8% BB, 25.3% K, 372 PA
PECOTA: .247/.333/.469, 28 HR, 10.6% BB, 23.9% K, 577 PA

Steamer and ZiPS both show concern about Bird’s injury history, which isn’t terribly surprising. He has dealt with injuries throughout his professional career, and, even if he’s healthy, the Yankees will probably make sure that he gets regular rest as a result. That being said, the projection systems are basically taking Bird’s career production and extrapolating it out over a full(ish) season, and that’s sensible. For as many great memories as he’s made in his brief big league career, Bird remains relatively unproven.

My Take

I am extremely confident in Bird’s ability to be an above-average hitter, even relative to his position. That’s what he did in the minors, and that’s what he has done when healthy in the majors. Factor in his flyball tendencies and his propensity for pulling the ball with authority, and there’s precious little to worry about when he’s in the lineup. That being said, questions about his ability to stay on the field abound, and cannot be easily pushed out of my mind. I think that he will get on-base and hit for power – and I will be ecstatic if he can play 130 games this season.

What are realistic expectations for Greg Bird in 2018?

February 21, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

As expected, the No. 1 story so far this spring has been Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Every single day it’s Judge and Stanton, Stanton and Judge. And that’s understandable. They’re both great and now they’re teammates. When the Yankees have players like that, they’re the center of attention. It’s a good thing for baseball.

While Judge and Stanton hog all the headlines, other young Yankees like Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres have mostly flown under the radar. Sanchez was hitting missiles in batting practice the other day and the ESPN News broadcast — I still can’t believe they cut in for spring batting practice — didn’t say a word. Torres is in the running for the second base job and hasn’t been talked about much, relatively speaking.

Also flying under the radar: Greg Bird, no pun intended. Granted, position players have only been in camp since Sunday, but there’s still been very little chatter about Bird. Last year he was the talk of camp between the return from shoulder surgery and the way he hit in Grapefruit League games. Now he’s coming off a nice postseason run and will again try to stay healthy, yet nothing. Everyone is talking about Judge and Stanton.

“I think he’s an impact middle of the order hitter on a championship caliber team. I think when we see him healthy and at his best I think he’s a guy that will be a real option to hit in the middle of our order,” said Aaron Boone to Bryan Hoch yesterday, reminding us that yes, Bird is talented and the Yankees love him. The injuries have been unfortunate. When he’s been healthy though, Bird has produced.

Because of those injuries, we’ve yet to see Bird for an extended period of time at the big league level. We can break his MLB time into three distinct segments:

Second half 2015: .261/.343/.529 (137 wRC+) in 178 plate appearances
Pre-injury 2017: .100/.250/.200 (29 wRC+) in 72 plate appearances
Post-injury 2017: .253/.316/.575 (128 wRC+) in 98 plate appearances

When healthy — he played hurt before going on the disabled list last year — Bird has been pretty good, and there’s every reason to believe he will continue to be good as long as he stays on the field. Exactly how good? No one really knows, because even when Bird was healthy, he wasn’t really healthy. He played through the shoulder injury in 2015, and late last year he was coming off that long layoff.

Here, for the sake of discussion, are what the various projection systems have for Bird going into 2018:

PECOTA: .247/.333/.469 (.276 TAv)
Steamer: .253/.342/.493 (120 wRC+)
ZiPS: .240/.333/.480 (114 wRC+)

Middling average, a good number of walks, and lots of power. Lots and lots of left-handed power. The one thing I am most confident in Bird doing is hitting for power. The shift might take away some base hits and minor league walk rates are notoriously fickle. Power though? Bird will hit for power. His swing is tailor made for Yankee Stadium. To wit:

Career pull rate: 44.8% (MLB average: 39.8%)
Career ground ball rate: 28.4% (MLB average: 44.2%)
Career hard contact rate: 40.6% (MLB average: 31.8%)

When Bird makes contact, he tends to hit the ball hard, he tends to hit the ball in the air, and he tends to pull it to right field. Two-hundred-and-four left-handed batters have at least 300 plate appearances since Opening Day 2015. Among those 204, Bird has the lowest ground ball rate, the ninth highest hard contact rate, and the 35th highest pull rate. The guy was built for Yankee Stadium and the short porch.

The power will be there as long as Bird is healthy. I think the walks will be there too, because his chase rate on pitches out of the zone (25.5%) is well-below the league average (29.9%) and because watching him play, Bird is very patient and calm at the plate. He knows what he’s doing out there. I’m not sure he’ll run a Judge-esque walk rate (18.7%), but something north of 10% seems very doable.

The only real negative in Bird’s batted ball profile is the fact he pulls so many balls on the ground, making him susceptible to the shift. His career big league spray chart:

So many ground balls to the right side. So, so many. Hey, when you hit the ball hard in the air to the pull field as often as Bird, you’re going to roll over on a few. It happens. Bird has not been an all-fields hitter thus far in his career and that was never the book on him coming up as a prospect. He’ll lose some hits to the shift. He’ll hit a lot of balls over the shift and into the seats, but he’ll also lose some hits to the shift along the way.

And you know what? Losing hits to the shift is fine. It’s annoying, believe me I know, but you take the bad with the good. Bird is going to pepper the short porch and work walks. I don’t see him as a .300 hitter or even a .280 hitter, but I do think the various projection systems are low. I think Bird can be a .250/.340/.500 guy this season as long as he stays on the field. There might even be more power in there than that. Now it’s just up to Bird to stay on the field for a full season to show he can do it.

“There’s a lot of work to be done and I’ve got to do it,” said Bird to Hoch. “I’ve got to go out for a full season and be a reliable guy and play. I haven’t done it yet, so I’ve just got to go out and do it consistently for a whole year. That’s what I’ve been working towards. That’s what I’ve always wanted.”

A Thought after the Yu Darvish Non-Signing

February 11, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

Nothing ever happens in a vacuum. When decisions are made–or not made–there is always some context to consider. We make our choices to do or do not, be or not be based on the circumstances that surround whatever situation we’re in. Then, those choices have consequences, which lead to new contexts, which lead to new choices, which lead to…you get where this goes. Yesterday, a choice the Cubs made got me thinking about a choice the Yankees didn’t and the possible consequences of that non-choice.

The Cubs signed free agent pitcher Yu Darvish, someone to whom the Yankees were linked for much of the offseason. The deal has a $126M base salary, with incentives to bring it up to $150M, over six years. As Mike said in the post, seems about right. Maybe it’s a little less inflated than recent pitcher contracts have been, especially given Darvish’s track record and reputation, but underwhelming contract returns seems to be a theme of the 2017-2018 Hot Stove. Despite that, and the aforementioned connection between the Bombers and Yu, Ken Rosenthal revealed that the team never even made an offer to sign Darvish. Why not? Say it with me, folks: the luxury tax.

By now, with Darvish off the table, Spring Training days away, and no other salary-related trades made since the Chase Headley one, I’m resigned to the fact that the Yankees are, very clearly, going to stay under the tax threshold. And I get it, when thinking from their point of view. It gives them savings shortly down the road that they’ll use to invest back into the team. On top of that, the team, as presently constructed, is good enough to win without adding a big piece. ZiPS and PECOTA have them at 93 and 96 wins respectively, both marks projected to win the division, the latter quite comfortably. And as counter intuitive as it may be, that rosy projection has me worried about the Yankees’ plans to spend going forward.

For a few years now, both Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman have beat a similar drum, one whose tune says “you don’t have to spend $200M to be a winner.” There’s truth to that statement and the Yankees are finally in a position to make it true. Between Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery in the rotation, along with Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird in the lineup, as well as Chad Green in the bullpen, the Yankees have plenty of impact players making dirt cheap salaries. That’s to say nothing of both the depth and high-end potential of their minor league players–spearheaded by Gleyber Torres and Justus Sheffield–and their apparent starting third baseman, Miguel Andujar. This team is set up to win in the short term and the long term, just what everyone wants. And the more I think about it, the more likely it seems that the Yankees will not reinvest their luxury tax savings if they win this year.

Eight months from now, it’ll be November. The Yankees will almost certainly have made the playoffs. They’ll probably have one at least one round. They may have even gotten to and/or won the World Series. And those things, no matter how minimal, are going to influence the Yankees. With last year’s performance, the Yankees arrived ahead of schedule. They were able to win without a huge splash in the free agent market, and are poised to do so this year. The trade for Giancarlo Stanton makes them less likely to go after Bryce Harper, who’d really have no room to play in the Yankees’ outfield in 2019 and beyond. If the team wins with Miguel Andujar at third base all year, and he comports himself as well as he can and is able to, the Yankees could reasonably pass on Manny Machado, too. If Machado is set on playing shotstop, the Yankees can always point to Didi Gregorius and Gleyber Torres as reasons not to sign him to a big money deal.

It’s not necessarily a bad thing for the Yankees to sit out the free agent market next year if they show great success this year. Winning is winning, after all, regardless of how much you spend. But the Yankees’ actions this year, especially on the pitching market, and their team construction make me think they’re going to skip reinvesting the potential and probable luxury tax savings from 2018. That’s their prerogative since it’s their team, their money, etc. And if you can win and spend less doing it? Great! But we’ve been told for years that this plan was to get them reset to spend big when the time came. I can’t help but feel we’re in for a bait and switch.

Five ways the Yankees will be improved from last season

February 7, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

What a difference a year makes. Last year at this time the Yankees were talking about a transition year and dealing with growing pains as they incorporated several young players into the everyday lineup. Now the Yankees are a World Series contender. Those young players thrived last season and helped the Yankees get to Game Seven of the ALCS. Being the underdog was fun. Time for the Yankees to get back to dominating the sport.

The goal this offseason and every offseason is to improve the organization, both short and long-term. Rebuilding teams focus more on the long-term. Contenders like the Yankees do a little of both, though they may sacrifice the long-term for the short-term on occasion, and that’s okay. Success can be fleeting in this game and I applaud any team that does all they can to win now rather than focusing on a future that may never come.

With Spring Training a week away, the Yankees have made one big addition (Giancarlo Stanton) and three smaller subtractions (Starlin Castro, Chase Headley, Todd Frazier) this winter. That’s pretty much it, right? Minor league signings like Danny Espinosa and Jace Peterson happen every year. Talented but erratic arms like Bryan Mitchell are dealt away every winter. Those are standard baseball moves. The Stanton, Castro, and Headley deals aren’t.

So, when camp opens next week, the 2018 Yankees are going to look fairly similar to the 2017 Yankees. I thought last year’s club was good enough to win the World Series. They just didn’t. Why, then, are the Yankees supposed to be better this coming season? I’ll give you five reasons.

Giancarlo

Starting here because this is the obvious upgrade. The Yankees added the reigning NL MVP this offseason! And he also happens to be the game’s top power hitter, and he turned only 28 in November. Pretty awesome. It cost them Castro and some prospects, but who cares? Stanton is too good.

For all intents and purposes, Stanton is replacing Matt Holliday in the lineup. He’ll play some outfield this year, no doubt, but the Giancarlo trade effectively filled the DH spot because both he and Aaron Judge (and Brett Gardner) have to coexist somehow. A quick statistical comparison:

2017 Holliday: .231/.316/.432 (98 wRC+) and -0.1 WAR
2018 Stanton (per ZiPS): .273/.366/.656 (161 wRC+) and +6.4 WAR

ZiPS projecting 55 homers and a .656 SLG for Stanton blows my mind. I’ve been looking at ZiPS for more than a decade now and I don’t ever remember seeing the system spit out numbers like that. Anyway, yeah, the Yankees are improved because they have Stanton now, not Holliday, who by all accounts is a good dude. He just stopped hitting in mid-June.

Full seasons of Gray, Robertson, and Kahnle

When it became clear the Yankees were contenders and not pretenders last season, Brian Cashman acted decisively and upgraded his roster at the trade deadline. He dipped into the farm system and traded superfluous prospects for Frazier, Sonny Gray, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, and Jaime Garcia. Frazier and Garcia were rentals and won’t be back this year. Or at least I don’t think Jaime will be back. You never know.

Anyway, the Yankees acquired multiple years of Gray, Robertson, and Kahnle. They weren’t rentals. Robertson is signed through 2018, Gray is under team control through 2019, and Kahnle is under team control through 2020. All will be back this season and they are all reasons the 2018 Yankees will be better than the 2017 Yankees. Gray effectively replaces Michael Pineda in the rotation. Robertson and Kahnle are replacing Tyler Clippard and, uh, I guess Jonathan Holder? Whoever it is, the Yankees are better off.

A full season of Bird, hopefully

Greg Bird did not come over at the trade deadline, but he was not available to the Yankees most of last season because of his ankle injury. The injury limited him to only 48 games and 170 plate appearances. Didn’t even play a third of the season. The Yankees gave way too many first base plate appearances to guys like Chris Carter and Garrett Cooper last year.

With any luck, Bird will (finally) stay healthy this season, and give the Yankees about 600 plate appearances and a bunch of dingers and walks. Some numbers:

2017 Yankees first basemen: .244/.317/.444 (83 OPS+) and +0.7 WAR
2018 Bird (per ZiPS): .240/.333/.480 (116 OPS+) and +1.1 WAR

Last season the Yankees ranked 25th among the 30 teams in first base OPS+ and 22nd in first base WAR. Bottom third of the league production at the position. We still have no idea what Bird can do across a full season. We’ve seen flashes of excellence, and gosh, his extreme fly ball tendencies make him a great mix for Yankee Stadium. A healthy Bird could be a considerable upgrade for the 2018 Yankees. Unfortunately healthy remains a big “if” with him, but fingers crossed.

More high-leverage work for Green

Chad Green started last season in High Class-A. True story. He didn’t join the big league team until May 8th, the day after the 18-inning game at Wrigley Field, and it wasn’t until late-July that he started pitching in high-leverage situations consistently. The cat is out of the bag now. Green is excellent, everyone knows it, and he will be used in important situations right from the get-go this season.

The Yankees started last season with Dellin Betances and Clippard as their bridge to Aroldis Chapman. Now that bridge is Robertson and Green, with Kahnle around as the third wheel. The bullpen is in much better shape right now than it was a year ago. It’s always fun when a young pitcher like Green comes up, dominates, and begins assuming high-leverage innings. It’s much more fun when you already know that young pitcher can dominate and you don’t have to wait to see him in important situations.

Natural growth

Come Opening Day, chances are Gardner will be the only player in the starting lineup over 30. The Yankees have an increasingly young roster, and talented young players have a tendency to get better. A lot better, in some cases. For some young Yankees, there is obvious room for improvement. Jordan Montgomery can cut down on the walks and be more efficient. Gary Sanchez can improve blocking balls in the dirt.

In other cases, it can be difficult to see how improvement is possible. Example: How in the world is Aaron Judge supposed to get better? With him, it’s a matter of gaining consistency to avoid another big midseason slump, and maybe cut down on the strikeouts as well. It’s possible Judge will be very good and a more complete all-around player this season while putting up inferior numbers to last season. In his case, improvement may be more subtle. With other young players, it probably won’t be.

* * *

There are plenty of other reasons the 2018 Yankees can be better than the 2017 Yankees. Masahiro Tanaka could stop giving up dingers. Betances could stop walking people. Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar could outproduce Castro, Headley, and Frazier. I’d bet against that last one, but it is possible. The Yankees are young and talented, and they have more young talent on the way. That’s exciting.

More than anything, the Yankees figure to be better this year because they added Stanton, and because they’ll have full seasons of Gray, Robertson, Kahnle, Green, and (hopefully) Bird. Losing Frazier, Headley, and Castro is not insignificant. Those dudes combined for +5 WAR in pinstripes last year. Asking Gleyber and Andujar to do that is putting a lot on the rookies. Stanton is the single biggest reason to expect the Yankees to improve this year. There are a lot of smaller things that could add up to large improvement too.

Finding the most sensible batting order for the 2018 Yankees

February 7, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

I don’t know about you, but as soon as the Yankees acquired Giancarlo Stanton, I started thinking about the lineup possibilities. Heck, I started thinking about them even before the trade went down, during the rumor phase. I reckon most baseball fans — even non-Yankees fans — were thinking about the lineup with Stanton after the trade. How could you not? It’s part of the fun of being a fan.

“You know what? Really quick,” said Aaron Boone at the Winter Meetings (video link) when asked how quickly he started sketching out lineups after the Stanton trade. “I think that’s the first thing I did after I left (Brian Cashman)’s office hearing the possibility of it. I think I grabbed I piece of paper and a pen, and I sat right down — like I bet you guys have as well — to see the potential moving parts.”

Spring Training is not going to tell us anything about how Boone may arrange his regular batting order. Grapefruit League lineups are designed to let guys get their work in, then go home. That’s why veterans are always stacked high in the order. They get their two or three at-bats, then check out for the day. Spring lineups aren’t indicative of what we might see during the regular season.

The Yankees and Boone still have some positions to figure out in Spring Training, specifically second and third bases, but unless they swing a trade for Jose Altuve or Manny Machado, I don’t see those positions affecting the lineup. The basic outline of the batting order is fairly straightforward:

Brett Gardner
Really good hitter
Really good hitter
Really good hitter
Really good hitter
Really good hitter
Really good hitter
Second or third baseman
Second or third baseman

There is a case to be made for batting Aaron Judge leadoff given his on-base ability, though as I explained in a recent mailbag, I don’t love that idea because it wastes some of his power. Batting Judge leadoff means roughly one-fifth of his at-bats will automatically come with the bases empty. Teams are batting power hitters leadoff these days — Charlie Blackmon, George Springer, and Brian Dozier are regular leadoff hitters — but a 50-homer guy? Nah.

You could also make a case for batting Aaron Hicks leadoff, or even Jacoby Ellsbury. I’m a Hicks believer, though I want to see him do it again before locking him into a premium lineup spot. Ellsbury? He’s not even a starter right now. Last season was his best offensive season in several years, and I think he has to earn that leadoff spot back, not be awarded it (and a starting spot) based on … his contract? Not sure what else it could be.

For better or worse, Gardner is the obvious choice at the leadoff spot right now. He’s one of the best count-workers in baseball, he gets on base plenty, and he has enough pop to sock a few quick strike leadoff homers throughout the season. (Gardner hit five leadoff homers last year.) Gardner is a natural fit at the leadoff spot until his performance says he should should hit lower in order, and he hasn’t reached that point yet.

Realistically, I’m not sure there’s anyone the Yankees could acquire for second and/or third base who should hit higher than eighth in the lineup. If they bring in Neil Walker and Eduardo Nunez, they’ll hit eighth and ninth. If they go with Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, they’ll hit eighth and ninth. Maybe Mike Moustakas would bat sixth or seventh? I suppose, though I’m not counting on the Yankees signing him, not with the luxury tax plan.

The middle of the order, the two through seven spots, have generated the most discussion this offseason because the Yankees have so many good hitters. How do you line them up? As long as Boone doesn’t do something silly like bat Judge or Stanton seventh, whatever he does will be fine. He’ll have really good hitters in the middle of the lineup no matter what. Let’s still talk about the lineup a bit.

1. How important is it to split up the righties? The lineup topic of the offseason. Stanton and Judge are two right-handed power hitters who will strike out, and because of that, I’ve seen an awful lot of people say the Yankees should squeeze a left-handed hitter between them in the lineup. We should include Gary Sanchez in this conversation too, because he’s another right-handed power hitter who will strike out from time to time.

The thinking behind putting a lefty between Stanton and Judge is it forces the opposing manager to do one of two things. Either he has to burn through multiple relievers to match up with the dangerous right-left-right portion of the lineup, or he’ll have to leave his righty in to face the lefty (or a lefty in to face the righty). Judge and Stanton are susceptible to righties with good breaking balls (aren’t all righties?) and you want to do something to counteract that. The thing about that though:

	vs. RHP in 2017
Aaron Judge	.298/.417/.662 (179 wRC+)
Giancarlo Stanton	.270/.354/.596 (144 wRC+)
Gary Sanchez	.282/.343/.530 (130 wRC+)
Didi Gregorius	.295/.325/.523 (120 wRC+)
Greg Bird	.168/.275/.370 (71 wRC+)

Don’t think it’s fair to use Bird’s overall season numbers given his injury and how crummy he was in April? Okay, he hit .222/.306/.508 (110 wRC+) against righties after coming off the disabled list and .270/.341/.574 (147 wRC+) during his big league debut in 2015, which feels like a lifetime ago.

Point is, the three right-handed hitters all out-hit the two lefties against right-handed pitchers last season. Will they continue to out-hit them against righties this season? I don’t see why not. Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez are all in their primes — you could argue Judge and Sanchez haven’t reached their primes yet — and they’re all really good hitters. We’re not talking about some randos who BABIPed their way to a good year against righties in 2017.

The numbers say it’s not worth squeezing a lefty between Judge and Stanton (and Sanchez) because they hit righties just fine. Empirical evidence says managers do weird stuff all the time and, inevitably, some manager will burn through his bullpen to play matchups against the right-left-right portion of the lineup, and it’ll come back to bite him. A manager will bring in his lefty specialist to face the lefty and leave him in against Stanton or Judge or Sanchez. It’ll happen at some point. You watch.

Can you build your lineup around that though? Can you base your lineup on the idea that the opposing manager will make a silly pitching decision at some point? Teams are pretty smart these days. We’re seeing more true high-leverage relievers nowadays. Managers bring in their best reliever in the game’s biggest spot regardless of platoon matchups. Left-on-left specialists like Clay Rapada are a dying breed. There isn’t enough room for a guy like that in the bullpen with starters throwing so few innings these days.

Bottom line, squeezing a lefty like Gregorius or Bird between Judge and Stanton (and Sanchez) means giving an inferior hitter more at-bats. Remember how terrifying it was when David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez batted back-to-back? Now imagine if it was Ortiz-Trot Nixon-Manny instead. Trot Nixon was a pretty good hitter! But we all would’ve welcomed the one-batter reprieve between Ortiz and Manny. Just think about it. If you were a pitcher, would you rather face …

2. Judge
3. Stanton
4. Sanchez

… or …

2. Judge
3. Gregorius or Bird
4. Stanton

I know what I’d pick. Judge and Stanton (and Sanchez!) are great hitters. Not good hitters. Great hitters. Squeezing a lefty between them for a sake of platoon matchups strikes me as paralysis by analysis.

“Absolutely you can (bat the three righties in a row),” said Boone to George King at the Winter Meetings. “That will be one of those things that we flesh out. What’s Greg Bird’s continued development? What is the matchup? Do we feel like we want one of those lefties breaking those three guys up? It’s something that is a possibility, but I would have no reservation if we feel like it’s best to string those three dudes together.”

2. What about splitting up the lefties? Paul O’Neill complains about this all the time during YES Network broadcasts. If you’re a righty who can’t hit righties, no one thinks too much about it. But if you’re a lefty who can’t hit lefties, it’s a Really Big Deal. You get labeled a platoon player and opposing managers have (or had for a long time) a designated guy in the bullpen to get you out. Righty specialists were never as much of a thing as lefty specialists. Not even close.

When Gregorius first joined the Yankees, there was concern he’d never hit left-handed pitching, then he went out and hit .324/.361/.473 (125 wRC+) against lefties in 2016, and everyone stopped talking about his platoon issues. Look at Didi’s year-by-year numbers against southpaws though:

2015: .247/.311/.315 (74 wRC+) in 164 plate appearances
2016: .324/.361/.473 (125 wRC+) in 161 plate appearances
2017: .264/.299/.354 (72 wRC+) in 155 plate appearances

One of those things is not like the others. Bird is a .257/.346/.500 (127 wRC+) career hitter against lefties in a whopping 81 plate appearances. The sample sizes are inconvenient, but that’s the way it goes with platoon data. There are way fewer left-handed pitchers in baseball than right-handed pitchers. (That’s one possible explanation why some lefty hitters have so much trouble against lefty pitchers. They simply don’t see them much.)

Two things about this. One, I think splitting up Didi and Bird to potentially avoid unfavorable platoon matchups is more important than splitting up Judge and Stanton (and Sanchez!). And two, I don’t think splitting up Didi and Bird should be a top priority. Based on my observations, Gregorius can hang in well enough against southpaws, and will hit for an okay-ish average. Bird has a good eye will annihilate mistake pitches even against great lefties.

Because that obsession with left-on-left matchups exists in baseball, at least moreso than right-on-right matchups, it might be worthwhile to squeeze a righty between Gregorius and Bird. Can that be accomplishment without weakening the lineup overall, and giving fewer at-bats to the cornerstone righties? I’m not sure. I won’t sweat it much. Designing a lineup around a scenario that might not happen never made much sense to me. It always bugged me that Joe Girardi would split the lefties to void the late left-on-left matchup rather than use a lineup that creates the best possible matchup against the opposing starter. It is what it is.

3. So what’s the best lineup? The best lineup and the lineup Boone is most likely to use are not necessarily the same thing. Using 2018 ZiPS projections and Dave Pinto’s lineup analysis tool, this is the best lineup the Yankees could run out there this season:

Brett Gardner
Giancarlo Stanton
Greg Bird
Aaron Judge
Gary Sanchez
Didi Gregorius
Gleyber Torres
Miguel Andujar
Aaron Hicks

Interesting! Interesting because it wouldn’t be completely insane if that were the Opening Day lineup. I could see it. Stanton batted second a bunch for the Marlins last season and Hicks would serve as the “second” leadoff guy in the nine-spot. That lineup projects to score 5.482 runs per game, or 888 runs per 162 games, according to the lineup analysis tool.

The lineup Boone will use is a bit of a mystery because this is his first managerial gig and we don’t know what kind of manager he’ll be. Is he an old school type that wants a bat control hitter second? Is he so new school that he’s willing to bat Judge leadoff? How important is splitting up the lefties? We don’t know. My guess is the Yankees will go into the season with this lineup:

LF Brett Gardner
RF/DH Aaron Judge
RF/DH Giancarlo Stanton
SS Didi Gregorius
C Gary Sanchez
1B Greg Bird
CF Aaron Hicks
Second or third baseman
Second or third baseman

I can’t shake the feeling the Yankees will sneak a left-handed contact hitter into the middle of the three righties to compensate for the strikeouts. Hopefully I’m wrong. Squeezing Didi in at cleanup means you still have that Ortiz/Manny thing with Judge and Stanton, but also split up the lefties. Bird is the x-factor to me. If he stays healthy and produces early, he’ll find himself higher in the order.

“We’re hoping to see Greg Bird take another giant leap this year and be one of those guys that really makes a pitcher work,” said Boone during a radio interview in December. “We saw what Didi did last year. Obviously, Gary Sanchez. When an opposing pitcher looks at our lineup and thinks about having to work through it, it’s a team that you better make pitches against. Otherwise, this is a team that not only will make you pay with a base hit, but it will also make you pay with some damage.”

My preferred lineup is basically the same lineup as above, only with Sanchez and Didi flipped. I’m not going to sweat batting the three big righty bats in a row. Stack the best hitters together and let ’em eat. Ultimately, the Yankees have so many good hitters that the order won’t matter that much. As long as Boone doesn’t do anything crazy like bat Judge eighth or Ronald Torreyes leadoff, the Yankees will be fine. The lineup will evolve as the season progresses and, before you know it, the Yankees will settle into a lineup that just works.

“Those little lineup (ideas), they can happen at any time,” said Boone during a radio interview last month. “You could be sitting in traffic. You could be lying in bed and not fall asleep, grab out a pad and paper and scribble things down. That’s the fun part at this point, especially with some of the guys we have, picturing how they best go together in a lineup.”

With arbitration cases settled, now is the time for the Yankees to think about extensions

February 6, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

A few weeks ago the deadline for teams and their arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures came and went with no major news for the Yankees. They signed all eight of their arbitration-eligible players before the filing deadline, so no hearings this year. Here, as a reminder, are those eight players and their 2018 salaries:

Didi Gregorius: $8.25M
Sonny Gray: $6.5M
Dellin Betances: $5.1M
Adam Warren: $3.315M
Aaron Hicks: $2.85M
Tommy Kahnle: $1.3125M
Austin Romine: $1.1M
Chasen Shreve: $0.825M

That is $29.2525M worth of arbitration-eligible players, and, as a reminder, these contracts are not guaranteed. The Yankees could release them in Spring Training and pay either 30 or 45 days of termination pay, depending on the date of the release. I don’t expect them to release anyone, but you never know. The Yankees released Chad Gaudin in spring 2010 and paid him only 45 days termination pay, so they’ve done it before.

Anyway, the Yankees signed all their arbitration-eligible players to one-year deals in lieu of long-term contract extensions, which would’ve had luxury tax implications. For example, giving Gregorius the Jean Segura contract (five years, $70M) would’ve raised his luxury tax hit from $8.25M to $14M. You can understand why the Yankees didn’t do that given the plan to get under the $197M luxury tax threshold, right? Every dollar counts.

Now that the Yankees have signed their arbitration-eligible players, the situation has changed. The Yankees can sign those players to extensions without changing their 2018 luxury tax hit. Andrew Baggarly recently explained this in a piece looking at a potential Madison Bumgarner extension:

For all you’ve heard about the $197 million competitive balance tax threshold, which the Giants are just barely staying under at the moment, extending Bumgarner now would have ZERO IMPACT on their CBT in 2018 depending on how they structure a deal.

The CBT payroll is calculated using the average annual value of salaries for players on multiyear contracts. But the Collective Bargaining Agreement is clear on this: the Giants could sign Bumgarner to anything — say, a six-year, $210 million extension that breaks Zack Greinke’s record-holding $34.42 million AAV for a pitcher — and as long as they sign it before Opening Day, and do not alter terms of his current contract for 2018, his CBT component would remain $12 million for this year. The league would recalculate his CBT number in 2019.

Long story short, as long as the Yankees sign someone to an extension before Opening Day, and the extension does not kick in until 2019, their 2018 luxury tax hit remains unchanged. Give Didi five years and $70M from 2019-23, and his luxury tax hit stays $8.25M in 2018. It would jump to $14M in 2019.

There is precedent for the Yankees doing this. In January 2014 they gave Brett Gardner a one-year deal worth $5.6M to avoid arbitration. Then, a few weeks later in February, they gave him a four-year extension worth $52M. Gardner’s luxury tax number remained $5.6M in 2014 before jumping to $13M from 2015-18. If they’d signed the extension after Opening Day, his 2014 luxury tax hit would’ve been recalculated to include the extension.

So, now that the Yankees have one-year deals in place with their eight arbitration-eligible players, they’re free to explore extensions without hurting the luxury tax plan, as long as the extension starts in 2019 and is signed before Opening Day. A few things about this.

1. This applies to pre-arbitration-eligible players too. Arbitration-eligible players get the most attention as extension candidates because they’re making decent money and are closer to free agency, but this extension rule also applies to players in their pre-arbitration years. For the Yankees, that includes Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Luis Severino. The Yankees can sign them to an extension that kicks in in 2019 without raising their 2018 luxury tax number.

I have no idea whether Judge, Sanchez, Severino or any other pre-arbitration player has actually signed a 2018 contract yet. That’s usually the last bit of offseason business and we rarely hear about those guys signing. It just happens at some point. Judge, Sanchez, and Severino will make something close to the league minimum this year and they are the keys to the luxury tax plan. Those three plus Greg Bird, Jordan Montgomery, and Chad Green. They’re providing big impact at dirt cheap rates. Once they sign their 2018 contracts, if they haven’t already, they’re able to sign an extension without having an effect on the 2018 luxury tax situation.

2. So who should the Yankees look to extend? It wasn’t too long ago that the Yankees had no extension candidates. No young players worth locking up long-term. Look at the 2014 Yankees. Who on that team was a serious extension candidate? I don’t see one. Now the Yankees are loaded with quality young players and therefore loaded with extension candidates. They want to keep these guys around long-term. I’d rank the extensions priorities in this order:

Gary Sanchez: Catchers who hit like this are super rare. Keep him forever.
Didi Gregorius: Quality two-way shortstop only two years from free agency.
Sonny Gray: Quality pitcher only two years from free agency.
Aaron Judge: Love the guy, but he’s already under control through age 30 and who knows how he’ll age at that size?
Luis Severino: Pitchers break, man.
Aaron Hicks: Two years from free agency and I’m a believer, but I need to see it again first.
Greg Bird: Gotta see him stay healthy first.

Warren will be a free agent after the season and maybe it is worth extending him given the current bullpen market. Guys like Tommy Hunter and Juan Nicasio are getting upwards of $9M per year in free agency. Warren might too. Other relievers like Green and Kahnle are under control a while, so there’s no need to rush into an extension given the volatility of the position. Betances has two years of control left, but he needs to fix his control first.

Anyway, we could argue the exact order of those seven names above all day if we want, but that’s how I’d rank them. Sanchez is too special at the hardest to fill position. I know he’s under control though 2022 and his age 29 season, but man, you don’t let a player like him get away. Catchers like Gary are franchise building blocks. I feel everyone else falls in line behind Sanchez. Maybe you think Severino should be a higher extension priority. That’s cool. I think to makes sense to wait to extend a pitcher with five years of control remaining given the inherent injury risk. (The same applies to Montgomery.)

There’s one more extension candidate to discuss: David Robertson. He’ll be a free agent after the season, and even with the free agent market moving slowly in general, relievers are still getting paid. Robertson might be a $17M a year reliever when hits the open market next winter. He loves being a Yankee as far as I can tell. Robertson will turn 33 in April. Would he take something like two years and $28M now rather that wait out the year for free agency?

3. Does it make sense to extend anyone given the free agent market? There’s a chance baseball economics have changed forever. Teams are refusing to sign veteran free agents this offseason, and I think anyone saying “let’s see what happens next year before we worry” is being naive. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will get paid. Everyone else has to be worried. The days of paying big for decline years are coming to an end.

Given that, does it make sense to extend players now rather than see how their market shakes out in free agency? If Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn are having trouble finding work this offseason, why rush into an extension with Gray? Gregorius is awesome. But how desirable will he be when he hits free agency in two years? For the most part, teams tend to be happy with extensions. There are always some exceptions. Pitchers gets hurt, blah blah blah. Usually extensions work out for the team. The calculus has changed though. Extensions may not make as much sense as they once did.

* * *

The Yankees are in a good place right now. Their very best players (Sanchez, Judge, Severino) are under team control long-term, and many of their other top players (Gregorius, Gray, Gardner, Hicks) have two more years of control. Robertson and CC Sabathia (and Warren) are the team’s only notable impending free agents and the Yankees might be able to replace them from within. Controllable young players and a great farm system are a great mix.

There is no real urgency for the Yankees to sign anyone long-term. Maybe there is some urgency with Robertson, but even then the bullpen is deep and he’s entering his mid-30s. It’s not like Judge or Sanchez is two years away from free agency, you know? The Yankees have their arbitration-eligible players signed and will have their pre-arbitration guys signed soon enough, if they’re not signed already. With that out of the way, they can shift focus to extensions that start in 2019 without worrying about the 2018 luxury tax situation. If nothing else, the Yankees should touch base with their top players to see whether there’s mutual interest in a deal.

Where does each 2018 Yankee hit the ball the hardest?

January 25, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Exit velocity is inescapable these days. Statcast puts the data at our fingertips and now you see it everywhere. On Twitter, on broadcasts, even on the scoreboard. The Yankee Stadium scoreboard showed exit velocity after balls in play this season. I’m not joking. It was right next to pitch velocity.

The Yankees have made it no secret they use exit velocity as an evaluation tool. I remember Brian Cashman saying a factor in the Chase Headley trade was an uptick in his exit velocity after he came back from an injury. We heard Aaron Judge had elite velocity while he was still in the minors. Here is the 2017 exit velocity leaderboard (min. 300 balls in play):

Aaron Judge: 94.9 mph
Nelson Cruz: 93.2 mph
Khris Davis: 92.2 mph
Giancarlo Stanton: 91.9 mph
Paul Goldschmidt: 91.4 mph
League Average: 86.6 mph

We’ve known hitting the ball hard is a good thing basically since the dawn of baseball. Now we can measure it and that’s cool. Exit velocity is just one tool in the shed though. Launch angle and direction is important too. After all, the hardest hit baseball during the Statcast era is a 123.9 mph grounder that went for a 4-6-3 double play. True story. Stanton hit it two years ago.

The best contact is hard contact in the air. Yes, a hard-hit grounder has a better chance to go for a base hit than a weakly hit grounder, but hit the ball hard in the air and good things will happen. On average, fly balls and line drives had a higher average exit velocity (92.1 vs. 82.5), batting average (.468 vs. .249), and isolated power (.454 vs. 022) than ground balls last season. Last season and every season.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at where each current member of the 2018 Yankees hit the ball the hardest last season. I don’t mean where he hits it on the field. I mean within the strike zone. Some guys can only put a charge into the ball when it’s middle-middle. Some guys are low ball hitters. Others can do damage on pitches pretty much anywhere. Those guys are the very best hitters in the game, the ones who can make great contact anywhere in the zone.

For the purposes of this post, I’m going to consider a hard hit ball a fly ball or line drive with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. Hitting the ball in the air is good, and 100 mph is a nice round number, so let’s go with that as our cutoff. Here’s where each 40-man roster member — not including Jake Cave, Thairo Estrada, Billy McKinney, and Gleyber Torres because they didn’t play in the big league last year — hit the ball the hardest last season. This post is image heavy, so everything is behind the jump.

[Read more…]

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