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Yankees place Giancarlo Stanton on 10-day injured list with biceps strain

by

(Presswire)

4:01pm ET: Stanton suffered the injury on a swing yesterday. He told the Yankees he needed a day or two off after the game, they sent him for an MRI, and it revealed a Grade I strain. Stanton will be shut down ten days, then reevaluated. “Hopefully we get him back at some point this month,” said Boone.

Here is the injury swing. You can see Stanton shake out his left arm after fouling the pitch back. He also took a long walk around before getting back in the box.

11:04am ET: Another key Yankee has been lost to injury. This morning the team announced Giancarlo Stanton has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a left biceps strain. Clint Frazier has been called up in a corresponding move.

The Yankees did not announce the severity of Stanton’s injury nor did they announce a timetable for his return. That’s something we’ll likely learn during Aaron Boone’s usual pregame media session this afternoon. Stanton is the eighth (!) Yankee on the injured list. Look at this:

  • Dellin Betances (shoulder inflammation)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery)
  • Aaron Hicks (back)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
  • Luis Severino (shoulder inflammation)
  • Giancarlo Stanton (biceps)

That’s the staff ace, the starting shortstop, the starting center fielder, the No. 3 hitter, the ace setup man, and other depth players. Oh, and CC Sabathia will be placed on the injured list Wednesday, after his five-game suspension ends. He’ll be the ninth Yankee on the injured list.

Stanton is 2-for-8 (.250) with an MLB leading seven walks in the early going this season. He’d taken over left field full-time with Brett Gardner sliding over to center to cover for the Hicks injury. The outfield right now is Gardner, Frazier, Aaron Judge, and Mike Tauchman. Cool. Rad. Great.

Frazier did not have a good Spring Training at all, hitting .143/.228/.245 with 16 strikeouts in 57 plate appearances. Baseball Reference’s opponents quality metric says he faced mostly Double-A caliber pitching. I suppose the good news is Frazier has been hitting well over in minor league camp.

The Yankees were planning to send Frazier to Triple-A Scranton for regular at-bats following last year’s concussion issues — Clint hit .311/.389/.574 (170 wRC+) in 48 games with the RailRiders last season — but he’s needed now in the Bronx. Frazier missed out on a golden opportunity last year because he was hurt when Judge was sidelined. This year he’ll get a chance to play while Stanton is out.

My hunch is the Yankees will move Greg Bird into Stanton’s vacated No. 3 lineup spot to split up the righties (Judge and Luke Voit), and also because the Yankees love Bird and will give him endless opportunities. I wish Frazier could stay in Triple-A to get those at-bats because he looked awfully rusty in camp. He’ll instead have to shake it off in games that count.

Five bold predictions for the 2019 Yankees

by

(Presswire)

In less than 28 hours the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Spring Training really flew by this year even though it seemed like someone got hurt every other day. Thank goodness it’s over, both Spring Training and an offseason that was frustrating for fans (of all teams) more often than not.

Since Opening Day is tomorrow, it’s time for what has become my annual bold predictions post. Two years ago I went 7-for-10 and that told me I didn’t go bold enough. I trimmed it to five bold predictions last year and went 0-for-5. That’s more like it. Fewer predictions with a greater emphasis on bold. That’s the point, right?

Well, anyway, here are my five hopefully bold enough predictions for the 2019 Yankees, listed in no particular order. We’ll come back and see how I did in a few months.

Judge and Stanton will combine for 116 home runs

The Yankees set several home run records last season, mostly notably the single-season record with 267 homers, but the whole “first team to get 20 homers from every lineup spot” thing is my favorite record. That is insane. That deep attack is how the Yankees were able to set the single-season homer record despite losing Aaron Judge to a wrist injury for seven weeks and others underperforming.

Breaking the home run record again this season is a very possible. It’ll take good health, something the Yankees don’t have right now, but it is possible. My focus is another home run record though. I’m predicting Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will combine for 116 homers, the most ever by two teammates in history. Only five sets of teammates have ever combined for as many as 100 homers in a season.

  1. 1961 Yankees (115): Roger Maris (61) and Mickey Mantle (54)
  2. 2001 Giants (110): Barry Bonds (73) and Rich Aurilia (37)
  3. 1927 Yankees (107): Babe Ruth (60) and Lou Gehrig (47)
  4. 1998 Cardinals (101): Mark McGwire (70) and Ray Lankford (31)
  5. 2002 Rangers (100): Alex Rodriguez (57) and Rafael Palmeiro (43)

Judge and Stanton combined to hit 65 home runs last season, so, even as good as they are, they only got a little more than halfway to my boldly predicted total of 116. Here’s the thing though: Judge and Stanton combined to hit 111 home runs in 2017. Not as teammates, of course, but they combined for 111 homers. Judge hit a rookie record 52 homers and Stanton hit an MLB best 59 homers with Miami.

These two have already come pretty close to 116 homers! Stanton will play the entire 2019 season at 29 and Judge will turn 27 in a few weeks, so they’re both very much in the primes of their careers. Also, Stanton will presumably be more comfortable in year two in New York, and he gets to play in Yankee Stadium. I mean, the guy hit 59 homers while playing his home games in spacious Marlins Park. Why can’t he hit 60-65 in a friendlier ballpark in the Bronx?

Judge and Stanton combining for 116 homers means one of them will almost certainly have to hit at least 62 homers, which would pass Maris and set a new American League single-season home run record. I suppose they could split it right down the middle and hit 58 each. The more likely scenario is one has a historic record-breaking season while the other merely has a monster MVP caliber season. It could happen!

Paxton will receive the most Cy Young points by a Yankee since Clemens

The last Yankee to win the Cy Young award is Roger Clemens in 2001. He went 20-1 in his first 30 starts that year, and that created a Cy Young narrative that was more or less unbreakable. Going 20-1 (he finished 20-3) was hard to ignore even though new Yankees teammate Mike Mussina (3.15 ERA and +7.1 WAR) had an objectively better season than Clemens (3.51 ERA and +5.7 WAR).

Since 2001, eleven different players have combined for 16 instances of a Yankee receiving Cy Young votes. Most notably, Mariano Rivera was the runner-up to Bartolo Colon in 2005 and Chien-Ming Wang was the runner-up to Johan Santana in 2006. The Cy Young ballot is five names deep and a first place vote equals five points, a second place vote equals four points, all the way on down to one point for a fifth place vote. The most points wins.

The most Cy Young points tallied by a Yankee since Clemens was not Luis Severino two years ago. It was CC Sabathia in 2010. He threw 237.2 innings with a 3.18 ERA and +6.4 WAR that season, and finished third in the Cy Young voting behind Felix Hernandez and David Price. Here are the top Cy Young point totals among Yankees since Clemens:

  1. 2010 CC Sabathia: 102 points
  2. 2017 Luis Severino: 73 points
  3. 2005 Mariano Rivera: 68 points
  4. 2011 CC Sabathia: 63 points
  5. 2006 Chien-Ming Wang: 51 points
  6. 2004 Mariano Rivera: 27 points
  7. Ten instances with 13 or fewer points

For reference, American League Cy Young winners have averaged 166.4 voting points over the last ten years. (The National League average is a bit higher because Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and the late Roy Halladay skewed it with their overwhelming greatness.)

With all due to respect to Masahiro Tanaka, who is forever cool with me, James Paxton is the Yankees’ best chance at Cy Young votes this year given Severino’s injury. Paxton has flashed ace ability in the past — at one point last May he struck out 16 and threw a no-hitter in back-to-back starts — but he hasn’t had that complete, fully healthy ace season yet. Last year he threw 160.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA. The year before it was 136 innings with a 2.98 ERA.

Blake Snell lowered the Cy Young threshold last year by throwing only 180.2 innings, the fewest ever by a Cy Young winner in a non-strike season. Of course, Snell also became the first American League starter with a sub-2.00 ERA since peak Pedro Martinez, so those 180.2 innings were super high-quality. Point is though, winning the Cy Young with only 180 or so innings is no longer impossible. You just need to be really, really good.

The bold prediction here is Paxton will not only stay healthy and get to 180 innings or thereabouts, but that he’ll also perform as well as 2017 on a rate basis. Even with the move from Safeco Field T-Mobile Park into Yankee Stadium. That means a 3.00 ERA or so, a FIP about a half-a-run lower, a strikeout rate approaching 30%, and nearly five strikeouts for every one walk. Add in the “new guy carrying to the Yankees to the postseason” narrative, and there you go. Even if he doesn’t win the award, Paxton will rake in Cy Young points.

Andujar will finish the year as an above-average defender

Perhaps my boldest prediction ever. I’m a longtime Andujar believer — what’s a good fan club name, the FANdujars? — and yes, I know he was atrocious defensively last season. Defensive Runs Saved data goes back to 2003 and includes over 31,000 individual player seasons. Last year Andujar finished with the 25th worst rating (-25 runs) in DRS history, sandwiched right between 2004 Bernie Williams (-26 runs) and 2007 Derek Jeter (-24 runs). Eek.

Like I said though, I am an Andujar believer, and I’m boldly buying into all the defensive work he did over the winter and in Spring Training, as well as a year’s worth of MLB experience. Being a rookie in the big leagues isn’t easy, especially not in New York with a Yankees team that is in the race. It’s pretty remarkable Andujar and Gleyber Torres were as productive as they were last season. There’s a lot to absorb during that first year in the show.

Andujar (and Torres) knows what to expect now, and he’s a very hard worker who’s spent a lot of time working on his defense the last five months. A lot. I expect all that work to pay off this summer. We’re going to see more plays like this …

… and fewer missed dives and double-clutches and short-hopped throws. Will Andujar be Adrian Beltre? Maybe! But no, probably not. I’m going with above-average, and, just to be completely upfront about this, I am totally claiming victory here if Andujar finishes the season at, like, +0.1 UZR with the other defensive metrics in the negative. One stat in plus territory, even by a tiny little bit, works for me.

Ottavino will lead the Yankees in saves

On paper, Adam Ottavino is what, fourth on the closer depth chart? Aroldis Chapman will again go into the season as the ninth inning guy, as he should, and my hunch is Zack Britton is next in line for save opportunities over Dellin Betances whenever Chapman needs a day. Either way, it’s Britton and Betances behind Chapman in either order, which means Ottavino is fourth at best. Maybe he’s even behind Chad Green? Could be.

Even at fourth on the closer depth chart, you don’t have to try real hard to envision Ottavino getting save chances at some point. I’m worried this bold prediction isn’t all that bold. Betances is already hurt, and while it’s not expected to be a long-term injury, you never really know with shoulders. He might not be the same dominant Dellin when he returns. That means Ottavino would have one fewer player standing in his way for save chances.

I didn’t love the decision to re-sign Zack Britton — like the rest of the Yankees’ free agent activity, it was fine and nothing more — because his strikeouts have gone down and his walks have gone up, and hitters aren’t chasing out of the zone nearly as much as they did a few years ago. For a 31-year-old reliever who’s missed a bunch of time with injuries the last two years, expecting Britton to be good rather than great isn’t crazy. I mean, look at this:

As for Chapman, he looked sneaky crummy this spring, with a fastball that sat mostly 94-96 mph rather than 97-98 mph. I know it’s only Spring Training, believe me, but Chapman’s fastball averaged 99.1 mph last March. For a guy who’s already losing velocity, seeing mid-90s rather than upper-90s this spring was a little worrisome. Hopefully he will regain those last few miles-an-hour as the weather warms up and the ninth inning adrenaline flows.

Even then, Chapman spent about a month on the disabled list in 2017 (shoulder) and 2018 (knee), and had to be demoted out of the closer’s role each year. It wouldn’t be the most surprisingly thing in the world if it were to happen again. Between Betances already being hurt and Britton and Chapman showing signs of decline, it sure seems like Ottavino is closer to save chances than it may appear given the other names in the bullpen.

If Ottavino leads the Yankees in saves — ahem, when he leads the Yankees in saves — my guess is he’ll do so with a low total like 18 saves. Ottavino has 18 saves, Chapman has 17 saves, Britton has 14 saves, something like that. It won’t be Ottavino with 42 saves and the runner-up with five saves or something like that. The Yankees have a historically great bullpen on paper. I’m still boldly predicting Ottavino will have to save the day in the ninth inning.

Romine will get an extension before Judge

Look, this probably won’t happen seeing how it wouldn’t qualify as a bold prediction if it were likely, but folks, get ready for Austin Romine to get a contract extension before other core players. Romine is due to become a free agent after the season and …

  • … the Yankees love him. Absolutely love him.
  • … Romine will be cheap, which presumably makes coming to terms easier.
  • … the free agent market is increasingly hostile toward players, hence all the recent extensions.

“I’d love to start, but I love being here. I like my job. I like this team. I’m looking forward to being on another winning team,” said Romine to Randy Miller recently. The American League catching picture stinks right now. Romine very well might get offers to start next winter, which is why I expect the Yanks to swoop in with an extension offer sooner rather than later. Two years and $5M seems reasonable.

As for Judge, he will earn $684,300 this year, his final season as a dirt cheap pre-arbitration player. The recent Alex Bregman extension (six years, $100M) and less recent Mike Trout extension (six years, $144.5M) indicate a Judge extension will fall in the six-year, $120M range. Bregman and Trout signed their deals at the same service time level as Judge, so that’s the ballpark number. He’s a $20M per year player on an extension.

During a radio interview earlier this week, Judge said “we haven’t spoken about that” when asked about a possible extension. He did kinda sorta indicate his agent may be talking to the Yankees though. Hal Steinbrenner more or less ducked a question about possible extensions in a radio interview the same day. Brendan Kuty has a transcript:

“I’ll leave that to (general manager Brian Cashman),” Steinbrenner said. “I’m not going to get into who we have talked to about the concept or who we do want to or don’t want to. But I will say it’s obvious we can’t do everybody at once. There are numerous situations we’re looking at when it comes to major league service time and the other part of the puzzle is, how conducive is the player to a concept like that. More to come. Stay tuned. We love all of our players. We love our young players. And we want them wearing pinstripes.”

This is my thinking: Judge already has lucrative endorsement deals with Pepsi and Adidas, among other #brands, and he’s a year away from a potential record arbitration payday. Kris Bryant ($10.85M), Francisco Lindor ($10.55M), and Mookie Betts ($10.5M) are the high-water marks for first year arbitration-eligible players. Repeating his 2018 season in 2019 (minus the wrist injury) would put Judge in position to crack $11M next year.

Because the endorsements give him some level of financial security, Judge is in good position to go year-to-year in arbitration to maximize his earning potential, or at least drive a real hard bargain in extension talks. He’s not stupid. He knows he’s the face of the franchise and one of the game’s biggest and most marketable stars. Passing on a nine-figure extension after only two full MLB seasons can’t be easy. Judge is one of the few players who could swing it.

The Yankees control Judge through 2022, so, while they surely want to lock him up at a below-market rate as soon as possible, there’s not much urgency. He’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Romine, on the other hand, can bolt after the season, and the generally weak catching situation around baseball means it’s possible another team will lure him away with a starting job. Time is of the essence with Romine. Free agency is months away, not years.

Furthermore, Romine is going to be cheap, and that makes coming to an agreement easier. The bigger the contract, the more complicated it gets. Martin Maldonado and James McCann both inked one-year deals worth $2.5M over the winter. Doubling that figures to catch Romine’s attention (and would double his career earnings) and could lead to a quick deal. It makes too much sense not to happen. Judge is playing the long game. Romine … is not.

At the risk of looking foolish, some optimistic spring training performance takeaways

by

(Presswire)

Spring training is in the books and opening day is just days away. The slate has been wiped clean and all camp performances, good or bad, get a reset. By now, we all know better than to make strong declarations based on Grapefruit League statistics. It sure is fun to do, though. And hey, what’s my risk of interpreting how certain players performed? I can live with looking silly.

A handful of Yankees had intriguing numbers over the last month or so. We won’t know how significant those until later in the regular season, but I think we can make meaningful observations from some of the results.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will strike out less

Both Judge and Stanton struck out about 30 percent of the time last season. If Grapefruit League play is any indicator, the duo will put the ball in play more often this year. Stanton fanned in 22.9 percent of plate appearances while Judge went down on strikes 26.7 percent of the time. Of course, neither accrued more than 48 plate appearances, so make of it what you will.

Despite the small sample, we do know that Judge has been trying to cut down on whiffs in camp. With two strikes, he’s eschewed his leg kick for a subtle toe tap. It’s seemingly worked out well thus far. Why can’t it continue to work in the regular season?

As for Stanton, there isn’t a discernible adjustment. At least, not one that I’m aware of. Nonetheless, he is just a season removed from the 23.6 percent rate he posted in his final season with Miami. Last year could have been a blip. As his spring training performance shows, this is who he is at his best.

Clint Frazier has some rust to shake off

This statement isn’t out on a limb, unlike the strikeout talk from the prior section. Frazier hit .149/.228/.245 in 57 plate appearances. He had the most opportunities out of anyone in camp, and understandably so. With much of last season lost due concussion recovery, it’s been a long time since Clint has been at full strength. Now that he’s finally cleared, there are some cobwebs for him to shake off.

It’s tough luck that Frazier still needs more time to get on track. Obviously, his health problems were the biggest misfortune of all. Pretty scary, in particular. But also, he’s missing an opportunity to grab a job from the outset of the season because Aaron Hicks is down for the count. He should still get an opportunity later this year, but he’ll have to wait.

Greg Bird is (finally) healthy

Fool me once, fool me twice, fool me…thrice? To be honest, I’m not sure how many times I have gotten excited about Bird at this point, only to be inevitably let down. Nonetheless, it’s hard not to read into his spring training numbers and not think he’s healthy. The Yankees gave him 54 trips to the plate in camp and he capitalized with a 1.091 OPS. Can’t I get a little excited?

Oh, but that elbow of his. He was hit there by a pitch last week. Here we go again, right? Well, it seems like he’s going to be fine, for now. I get the skepticism with Bird, but I’m ready to dive back in and believe. I think it’s easier this time because he’s the underdog to Luke Voit, and if Bird does indeed flame out again, the Yankees should be fine at the position anyway.

Tommy Kahnle is back

It’s always good to draw conclusions from seven and a third innings pitched. In that workload, Kahnle struck out nine and allowed only one earned run. His velocity appears to be back and not only is he healthy, but he’s also in far better shape than before. The way he took care of his body before this season was…something.

It’s going to be a huge plus to have a revitalized Kahnle with Dellin Betances on the shelf to start the year. It looks Kahnle’s 2017-self, minus all of the caffeine and junk food, is back and here to stay.

Stephen Tarpley is for real

The 26-year-old southpaw was named the team’s best rookie in camp, and deservedly so. He allowed no runs, one walk, and six hits in just over 11 innings of work this spring (before last night), which earned him a spot on the opening day roster. Tarpley already began to emerge as an intriguing relief prospect last season and did a nice job in a late summer cameo with the Bombers.

Tarpley is in line to be this year’s Jonathan Holder. He may ride the Scranton shuttle a couple of times early on, but more likely than not, he’s ready to carve out a role in the big leagues for good. His spring training was just a confirmation of his capabilities.

Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

by

German. (Presswire)

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
UTIL Tyler Wade OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
RHP Luis Cessa RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Domingo German RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

by

(Presswire)

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

  • Dellin Betances (shoulder)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
  • Aaron Hicks (back)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
  • CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
  • Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

  • Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
  • Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

  1. Greg Bird
    (huge gap)
  2. Billy Burns
    (tiny gap)
  3. Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

(Presswire)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

  • On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
  • Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Greg Bird LF Giancarlo Stanton Masahiro Tanaka CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine 1B Luke Voit CF Brett Gardner James Paxton SU Zack Britton
2B Gleyber Torres RF Aaron Judge J.A. Happ SU Chad Green
SS Troy Tulowitzki UTIL Tyler Wade Luis Cessa SU Adam Ottavino
3B Miguel Andujar MR Jonathan Holder
IF DJ LeMahieu MR Tommy Kahnle
MR Stephen Tarpley
SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

Giancarlo Stanton, Expectations, and the Second Year in Pinstripes [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

Expectations were sky-high in the Bronx for the newest Yankee superstar, the high-powered Giancarlo Stanton, in 2018. The Yanks had quickly developed a formidable core of young homegrown talent with Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge and stormed their way to Game 7 of the ALCS the year prior. Excitement was in the air – and then the Yanks traded Starlin Castro for Stanton, who had just hit 59 home runs en route to the NL MVP. The Yankees were back; the lovable group of underdogs that surprised the league in 2017 was no more.

Those expectations inevitably meant some letdown, and sure enough, Giancarlo was welcomed to the Bronx in a stereotypical Bronx way: showered with boos, raging WFAN callers and semi-regular trade speculation. It was a true superstar’s welcome to pinstripes, one with which former big-name acquisitions like Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira could empathize.

But with two notable exceptions (more on those shortly), Stanton did what Stanton does: hit the ball hard and far. His second year with New York figures to be a bit smoother for a number of reasons – personal adjustment, logistics, etc. are settled now – but let’s quickly dive into his 2018 before looking ahead.

A Disappointing Debut?

Giancarlo’s 2018 is considered disappointing by many fans and analysts, and it’s worth exploring that perception in a bit greater detail, as it will inform our expectations of what he can (and should) do going forward. Here’s his 2018 line compared to his career line:

  • 2018: .266/.343/.509 (127 wRC+), .360 wOBA, 9.9 BB%, 29.9 K%, .243 ISO and .333 BABIP
  • Career: .268/.358/.548 (142 wRC+), .381 wOBA, 11.5 BB%, 28.0 K%, .301 ISO and .298 BABIP

It’s worth noting that Stanton’s counting stats (38 homers and 100 RBI) and durability (158 games played) were exceptional. That accounted to 4.2 fWAR for the slugger, who was, despite the perception, one of the Yanks’ best players: only Aaron Judge (5.0), Aaron Hicks (4.9) and Didi Gregorius (4.6) were more productive offensively by fWAR. Crucially, all three missed significant time – meaning that Stanton was an indispensable force, and that without him, some of those August lineups would have looked mighty ugly.

His success was buoyed by the two-thirds of the season in which Stanton was a legitimate monster. Take a look at this:

  • May 1 to August 18th: 301/.363/.581 (150 wRC+) with 27 home runs in 94 games
  • Everything else: .194/.292/.346 (75 wRC+) in 55 games

That top number is the type of production that wins MVPs – and it was long enough that it should serve as proof that Stanton can “handle New York.” But that’s not to say that Stanton wasn’t simultaneously disappointing despite these successes. Two brutal slumps early and late in the season that totaled the remaining third of the season ruined an otherwise outstanding year during the two most visible stretches of the season. That’s why his critics are so loud.

Taken in the aggregate, it’s clear that Stanton underperformed expectations. He got on base less than normal – he was merely above average when usually excellent – and his isolated power was significantly below his career norm, a result of hammering the ball into the ground. He struck out in nearly a third of his at-bats (inevitably including some notable moments), which, although this was typical of him, managed to feel infuriating.

Fans must remember just how good Giancarlo is even with those caveats, though. Normal players don’t hit 40 home runs, drive in 100 runs, play every day but three and manage to be a true middle-of-the-order force on a 100-win juggernaut when they post a 75 wRC+ over a third of a season. That speaks to his natural talent and just how dominant he is as a player when things are clicking. He was worth 4 wins despite his two slumps – and a player for whom that’s the floor is a boon to every team.

Reducing His Grounders

The Yankees have championship aspirations, and to realize those dreams, they’ll need superstar production from Giancarlo across all of 2019. Or, at the very least, his slumps can’t be as severe or protracted in year two. That would go a long way toward his “rebound” and would likely rehabilitate him in the eyes of some of his sharpest critics. How can he accomplish that?

One of the more frustrating parts of Stanton’s 2018 was a sharp uptick in ground balls over his career average. 45% of balls Stanton hit last year were on the ground, far higher than his 42% norm and his highest since 2011 (though, to be fair, he did come close in 2017). His fly ball percentage dropped in concert, with only 36% of his balls hit in the air compared to his 39% career line.

That’s far too many balls on the ground for a player with Giancarlo’s power, let alone considering the fact that balls in the air at Yankee Stadium tend to fly out of the yard even for lesser talents. That means a lot of hard-hit balls gone to waste – and Stanton hit the ball extremely, extremely hard in 2018. Take a look at his batted ball rankings among the 96 other MLBers with 400 or more batted ball events (BBE) last year, per Statcast/Baseball Savant:

  • Barrels per plate appearance: 8.9% (5th)
  • Barrels per BBE: 15.1% (3rd)
  • Balls hit 95 mph or harder: 211 (9th)
  • Percentage of BBE hit 95 mph or harder: 50.7% (5th)
  • Average exit velocity: 93.7 mph (2nd, with the hardest hit individual BBE of any player in baseball at 121.7 mph)

Few players hit the ball harder. That’s right in line with who he is as a hitter, and we can all expect to see more of the same in 2019. Even in 2018, with more grounders and less fly balls, his line drive percentage stayed constant at 16%. It’s the uptick in grounders that will reduce his power and extra-base hits, not his actual ability to hit the ball hard.

The good news here is that his GB/FB rates were outliers last year, not a return to normal. That suggests that we can expect those numbers to increase – maybe pitchers attacked him differently, maybe he was pressing, maybe he made an ill-advised mechanical change, etc. – and stabilize around his career averages. That should mean more home runs and a higher batting average, as grounders are generally converted into outs – even if Stanton became an unlikely infield single threat. Improving on this figure would likely significantly help Giancarlo find more consistency next year.

A Potential Path to Replicating 2017

There were two other categories in which Giancarlo struggled last year compared to 2017: he struck out more and walked less. The big difference here compared to the above is that 2018 marked a return to normal. It was 2017 that was the outlier.

It’s important to say this: Stanton strikes out a lot. He always has and he always will. He struck out 23% of the time in 2017 in what was the lowest mark of his career by a considerable margin. He made a much-publicized mid-season change to his stance at the plate, the idea of which was to cut down on strikeouts and increase his power. It worked in the short-term but 2018 saw his strikeout rate return to normal, as he fanned 29% of the time (his career average is 28%).

On its own, that would be fine. Stanton was worth 5.0 fWAR in 2012 and 6.8 fWAR in 2014 when he struck out 28 and 26 percent of the time, respectively. But it’s more of a concern when coupled with a declining walk rate, and that’s exactly what happened in 2018: his 9.9% walk rate was much lower than the 12% he posted in 2017 and was his lowest since that 2012 season.

That suggests that Stanton was chasing more pitches out of the zone last year, and the numbers bear that out, but again in a return to career norms rather than an outlier. His 2018 chase rate was just under 31%, which is right in line with his career average of 30.6% – it was 2017 (27.9%) that was the true outlier. Perhaps 2017 isn’t repeatable (it turns out that hitting 59 homers isn’t so easy!) but it’s worth noting that Stanton did swing more overall last year than normal. He swung at 45% of pitches in 2018. That’s in line with his career data but a raw figure he has only exceeded three times in nine seasons.

Hopefully, a year with the Yankees coaching and a season’s experience facing American League pitching means that he will have better recognition in 2019 – for what it’s worth, he’s flatly not interested in discussing his stance – and unleash the Stanton the National League saw in 2017. It would be great to see his walk rate return to normal, and I think there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that this figure will rebound because Stanton generally walks more than he did last year.

The strikeout rate is more likely to remain high moving forward because that’s just who he is as a hitter – but it’s worth remembering that he has found considerable success at the plate as a big leaguer regardless.

What to Expect

There will likely be little change in the way Giancarlo is used in 2019. He’ll remain a primary DH who gets some time in the outfield (although I’d be curious to hear why the Yanks seem to think he can’t play the outfield regularly given that he has spent his career as an outfielder in the National League). He’ll hit in the middle of the order and he’ll hit dozens of home runs and hundreds of balls really hard. That’s just who he is and who he’ll always be. Here are the projections, for whatever they’re worth:

  • ZiPS: .255/.344/.557 (138 wRC+)
  • Steamer: .267/.354/.569 (145 wRC+)
  • PECOTA: .258/.354/.512 (134 DRC+)

Each of those has Stanton outperforming his 2018 debut in the Bronx, and I think that’s a fair assessment. Stanton was very, very good in his first season as a Yankee – and that was with two career outliers in his GB% and reduced BB%. A reset to normal there alone should improve his production, and that’s without considering the external factors that could lead to a more comfortable approach, like being settled in on the team and in New York, familiarity with pitchers, etc.

The Yankees will be an excellent team this year, and Giancarlo Stanton is going to play a major role in that success. Even though he was very good in 2018, Giancarlo seems a safe bet to return to “form” and remind fans why it was that he was the National League MVP just two years ago.

Where does each 2019 Yankee hit the ball the hardest?

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(Presswire)

In the year 2019, exit velocity is firmly ingrained in the baseball lexicon. It is inescapable. It’s all over Twitter and game broadcasts, and the Yankees literally show exit velocity on the Yankee Stadium scoreboard. Each time a Yankee puts the ball in play, there’s the exit velocity, right next to the pitch velocity on the center field scoreboard. Get used to it. Exit velocity isn’t going anywhere.

The Yankees have embraced exit velocity as an evaluation tool. It helped them unearth Luke Voit, and I remember former farm system head Gary Denbo mentioning Aaron Judge had premium exit velocity back when he was still a prospect in the minors. Hit the ball hard and good things happen. Here is the 2018 exit velocity leaderboard (min. 200 balls in play):

  1. Aaron Judge: 94.7 mph
  2. Joey Gallo: 93.9 mph
  3. Nelson Cruz: 93.9 mph
  4. Giancarlo Stanton: 93.7 mph
  5. Matt Chapman: 93.1 mph
    (MLB average: 87.7 mph)

Hitting the ball hard is a good skill to have. I mean, duh. Hit the ball hard and it’s more likely to go for a hit. Hit the ball hard in the air and it’s more likely to do serious damage, meaning extra-base hits. Last season the league hit .730 with a 1.098 ISO — that’s ISO, not SLG — on fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. For real.

Not surprisingly, the home run record-setting Yankees led MLB with a 93.6 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives last season. With that in mind, let’s look at where each projected member of the 2019 Yankees hit the ball the hardest last year. Specifically, let’s look at where in the strike zone they produce their best contact. Some guys are low ball hitters, others are high ball hitters, etc.

For the purposes of this post, we’re going to consider “best contact” to be fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. Why 100 mph and not, say, 95 mph or 97.6 mph or whatever? No real reason. Round numbers are cool so 100 mph it is. Here is each projected 2019 Yankee, listed alphabetically, and last year’s “best contact” profile.

(All spray chart are shown with Yankee Stadium’s dimensions even though not every batted ball was hit at Yankee Stadium, which is why there appear to be more homers than were actually hit.)

Miguel Andujar

Average FB+LD exit velocity: 92.7 mph
Number of 100+ mph FB+LD: 65 (13.5% of all balls in play)

I am legitimately surprised Andujar’s exit velocity numbers are not better. His average exit velocity on all batted balls was 89.2 mph, which ranked 72nd among the 186 hitters with at least 300 balls in play last year. His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives ranked 128th (!), right behind Manny Margot and one-tenth of a mile-an-hour better than JaCoby Jones. Huh. Didn’t expect that.

Anyway, the strike zone plot above shows Andujar makes hard contact pretty much everywhere. That makes sense. He seems to get the fat part of the bat on the ball no matter where it’s pitched. Most of his 100 mph or better fly balls and line drives are to the pull field, like most hitters, though Andujar can drive the ball the other way. I’m still a bit surprised his exit velocity are numbers are relatively low (but still better than average). Didn’t see that coming. Maybe that means he’s due for bad regression?

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