Domingo German Archives - Page 2 of 13

The Obligatory Gio Gonzalez Post

March 10, 2019 by Matt Imbrogno

Last week, I wrote the first nice thing I think I’ve ever written about Luis Cessa, which was predicated on him being a reliever, not a starter. A day later, Luis Severino had to stop warming up for a game because of right shoulder inflammation. Later on in the week, the Yankees announced that both Severino and CC Sabathia would be starting the year on the Injured List and all of a sudden, Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga are staring down an opportunity to make the Major League rotation to start the year, rather than the bullpen. As this will shallow the Yankees’ depth, it may make sense to search outside the organization for help; that brings us to Gio Gonzalez.

I’m going with Gonzalez rather than, say, Dallas Keuchel because last week, Gonzalez was linked to the Yankees, not Keuchel. I’ll also say, in the spirit of disclosure, that I’ve always liked Gonzalez as a pitcher. Why? I have no idea; he’s just a guy I’ve always been a fan of. This bias of sorts leads me to think that he’d probably be better than one of the Yankees’ depth options, mostly on experience alone, but let’s see if it’d be worth that.

Depending on where you look, Gonzalez either had a decent year last year (2.0 fWAR, 2.2 WARP) or a pretty bad year (0.7 bWAR) in 171 innings between the Nationals and the Brewers. The numbers behind all that? A 4.21 ERA; a 4.42 RA; a 4.16 FIP; and a 4.17 DRA. His walk rate was 10.7, the first time he’d gone that high since 2011. His strikeout rate was 19.8, his first time ever under 20%. His home run rate, dropped to 10.4 HR/FB%, trending right after two years at 11.1 (2017) and 12.5 (2016). His groundball rate was 45.3%, his lowest since 2014, continuing a downward trend. His fastball velocity has also waned since 2016, something to be expected of a player who’ll turn 34 in September. But, in a fashion that might fit the Yankees, he features something else other than a straight fastball by throwing a sinker. He’s also upped his changeup usage by about 5% from 2017 and about 8% from 2016.

None of those trends really scream out ‘sign me,’ do they? I’ll answer my own question and say they do not, but there are some positives. His groundball rate is still passable, especially when we look more closely at the pitch data from 2018. His sinker, changeup, and curveball all got over 50% GB/BIP, which is great. His four seamer dragged it down at 25% GB/BIP. If Gonzalez focuses less and less on his fastball and more on his sinker, changeup, and curve, he can maybe return to a more prominent position with grounders. Additionally, his change and curve have better whiff/swing rates that his fastball does, which could lead to another uptick in strikeouts.

Basically, the entire idea of Gonzalez comes down to those ifs. Are those ifs worth the risk? Maybe? Gonzalez is a veteran pitcher who comes with a track record. He’s likely to be better–even with his warts–than Cessa and probably German, but Loaisiga’s upside is hard to ignore; however, his health is such a question mark that Gonzalez may be the better play to start. Again, it comes down to another if.

If Gonzalez is okay with a one-year deal, sign him. There’s minimal risk and there are still the minor league options to back him up. If he wants a multi-year deal, I think it’s easy to pass.

Like it or not, the Yanks should use an opener while Severino and Sabathia are sidelined

March 7, 2019 by Mike

Go ahead, give me a good reason why Domingo German should face the top of the lineup in the first inning. (Presswire)

When the 2019 regular season opens in three weeks, the Yankees will be without staff ace Luis Severino and fifth starter CC Sabathia. Severino is dealing with rotator cuff inflammation and Sabathia is working his way back from offseason knee and heart surgery. Sabathia’s delayed start to the season was expected. Severino’s injury came out of nowhere, like most injuries.

“Hopefully it’s as short as necessary, but we need to make sure we give it the time also that’s necessary,” Brian Cashman said to Coley Harvey earlier this week. “He’s an important piece and we’re not going to have him for a period of time. We’ll adjust. That’s what everybody has to do. But it’s obviously a very concerning situation until he’s on the mound for a consistent amount of time to the point that you forget it ever happened.”

Cashman seemingly ruled out an outside rotation addition — “What I’ve got is what I’ve got and we’re comfortable with that. Can’t rule anything out, but I’d say the main focus is what we have,” he said — which isn’t surprising. No general manager would come out and say “yep, we’re ready to sign someone or make a trade” after losing a key player to injury. That’s a good way to crush your leverage.

Realistically, there are four ways the Yankees can replace Severino and Sabathia. One, they could splurge and sign Dallas Keuchel. I wouldn’t bet on that. Two, they could go after Gio Gonzalez, who figures to be cheaper than Keuchel and still offers that Proven Veteran™ track record. Three, they could go real cheap with someone like James Shields or Edwin Jackson. Or four, they could go in-house with Luis Cessa, Domingo German, or Jonathan Loaisiga.

The Yankees tend to promote from within to address roster needs these days — remember how Severino made his MLB debut? the Yankees called him up because they didn’t like any of the asking prices at the 2015 trade deadline — so my hunch is they’ll roll with Cessa, German, and Loaisiga. I get adding depth, but is there any reason to believe Jackson or Shields or Bartolo Colon would give the Yankees better production? Eh, not really.

Sticking Cessa, German, or Loaisiga in the rotation and letting them run with it is the most straightforward move. It is not necessarily the best move, however. I think the best move would be pairing them with an opener. Aaron Boone more or less dismissed using an opener last week — “Look, if we are healthy and have perfect health, you don’t envision that,” he said — but here’s what he told George King following Severino’s injury:

“I could see (an opener) being considered from time to time. I don’t consider it a lot, but I could see it coming into play,” Boone said of employing the opener by using a reliever such as Chad Green to start a game. “There are so many things that go into that for us. A long stretch of games, you may want to give a guy an extra day. When we are healthy and right, I don’t see it that much.”

When healthy, the Yankees don’t have any opener candidates. Sabathia is the best candidate to be paired with an opener, but he has a longer than usual warm-up routine, and that might not translate well to the bullpen. An opener with Sabathia could be a net negative. With Severino and Sabathia sidelined though, and presumably two of Cessa, German, and Loaisiga in the rotation, suddenly the Yankees have two candidates for an opener.

The opener is both a smart strategy and a total drag to watch. The additional pitching changes and constant bullpen monitoring distract from the actual game. Strategically, it’s brilliant. You match up one of your better pitchers against the top of the lineup (i.e. the other team’s best hitters) in the first inning, then turn it over to someone who can get you through three or four (or five) innings while facing the top of the lineup only once. It’s smart. It is.

Cessa, German, and Loaisiga are all young pitchers with recent bullpen experience — they all pitched in relief for the Yankees at times last year — and the Yankees certainly have the bullpen depth to swing this. They could use Chad Green as an opener and still have Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, and Adam Ottavino for the late innings. I wouldn’t be opposed to using Betances as an opener and really dropping the hammer.

German really struggled in the first inning last year (8.36 ERA and .283/.348/.667 against) though I don’t think we need to dig up stats to validate the strategy. Generally speaking, the other team’s best hitters bat in the first inning. That has been the case for decades. Top relievers like Green, Betances, and Ottavino are better equipped to retire the other team’s best hitters than inexperienced kids like Cessa, German, and Loaisiga. It’s pretty simple.

The difficult part — and this is what Rays manager Kevin Cash did so well last year — is getting the players to buy in. Throwing Betances rather than Cessa at Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez in the first inning sounds great, but is Dellin comfortable pitching that early in the game? Pitchers are creatures of habit. Disrupt their routine and bad things can happen. There’s an adjustment that has to be made.

Remember, the opener was born out of necessity. The Rays used it last year because they were hit hard by injuries last spring. Nathan Eovaldi was slowed by loose bodies in his elbow and pitching prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon needed Tommy John surgery. Tampa had Chris Archer and Blake Snell, and that was it. They came up with a creative way to navigate around the pitching injuries and lack of rotation depth.

The Yankees, when healthy, don’t need an opener. Their starters are plenty good enough. The Yankees aren’t healthy though, and barring a surprise signing or trade, they’re going to go into the regular season with two of Cessa, German, and Loaisiga in the rotation. That’s not great. Dipping into that deep bullpen to use an opener will allow the kids to avoid the top of the order once per game, which will increase their chances of having a productive outing.

At this point the opener is a legitimate baseball strategy more than a gimmick. And, with the AL East race expected to be tight all season, every game takes on increased importance. The Yankees are already without two of their top five starters. Anything they can do to make life easier on the fill-in starters should not be dismissed. The opener can make for some ugly baseball, believe me I know, but it can also give the Yankees a better chance to win when Cessa, German, or Loaisiga are on the mound.

Wednesday Notes: Top 110 Prospects, Cessa, German, Loaisiga

January 30, 2019 by Mike

In two weeks pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa and Spring Training will begin. Will Manny Machado or Bryce Harper sign before then? I’m starting to think no. Would be pretty embarrassing for baseball if two 26-year-old superstars are unemployed when Spring Training opens, I think. Anyway, here are some notes and links to check out.

Three Yankees among Law’s top 110 prospects

Over the last few days Keith Law released his top 110 prospects list for the 2019 season: Nos. 1-50, Nos. 51-100, and Nos. 101-110. Everything is behind the paywall, though I will tell you Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as Law’s top prospect, not Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (Vlad Jr. is second.) Three Yankees make the top 110:

61. RHP Deivi Garcia
101. OF Everson Pereira
106. OF Estevan Florial

Law says Garcia “at least looks like he is built from the same mold as guys such as (Marcus) Stroman and Roy Oswalt,” meaning a short righty who can stick as a starter. He adds Pereira might’ve made the top 100 had he not missed time with injury last year. “(The) raw tools and the fact that he still hit .263/.322/.389 despite his youth mark him as a potential top-50 guy for next year,” says the write-up.

Like Baseball America, Law kept Florial out of his top 100 for pitch recognition issues. (Florial wasn’t in Law’s top 100 last year either.) And, given his injury history, I’m not surprised RHP Jonathan Loaisiga didn’t make the top 110 or even the honorable mentions. Loaisiga has top 100 stuff and control, but not top 100 health. The only former Yankees prospect to crack Law’s top 110 list is Mariners LHP Justus Sheffield, who ranked 34th. He went to Seattle in the James Paxton trade.

Yankees received calls on Cessa, German, Loaisiga

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees have received trade calls this offseason on depth starters Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. Obviously the Yankees haven’t received an offer to their liking given the fact all three righties remain in the organization. Loaisiga’s trade value may never be higher than it is right now. Given his injury history, I wouldn’t be against cashing him as a trade chip.

The Yankees (finally) traded Sonny Gray two weeks ago and they’ve yet to sign a swingman type to replace him, not unless you count Drew Hutchison or David Hale. Cessa, German, Loaisiga, and Chance Adams are the Nos. 6-9 starters in whatever order. Cessa is out of options, so trading him would be preferable to potentially losing him on waivers for nothing, but I’m not sure the Yankees would get much in return. Cessa is probably more valuable to the Yankees as a depth piece than anything he could fetch in a trade. Same with German.

Nike, not Under Armour, will be MLB’s next uniform supplier

Earlier this month MLB announced a new ten-year agreement that makes Nike the league’s new uniform supplier beginning in 2020. Nike will replace Majestic. A few years ago Under Armour was in talks to take over as the league’s uniform supplier, but that deal fell apart, and Nike swooped in. The Under Armour logo would’ve appeared on the jersey chest, like so:

The Associated Press reports the Nike swoosh logo “likely will move to a more prominent position on jersey fronts,” though no details were announced. Currently the Majestic logo appears only on uniform sleeves, and the Yankees have an exemption. There’s no Majestic logo on their jerseys. I would be surprised if they get a similar exemption in the Nike deal. Much like the New Era logo on the side of caps, it probably won’t be long before you stop noticing the Nike logo on jersey fronts.

Yankees hire first ever Environment Science Advisor

The Yankees have hired Dr. Allen Hershkowitz as their new Environmental Science Advisor, the team announced. It’s the first position of its kind in pro sports. “The Yankees have always been devoted to supporting the best interests of our community, our fans and our players, and we believe effective eco-friendly initiatives are a key element of our interactions,” said Hal Steinbrenner in a statement.

Teams around the league have taken up green initiatives but never before has a sports club hired someone for the express purpose of helping them become more environmentally friendly. The Yankees say Hershkowitz will have a “primary focus on the areas of energy use, waste management, water conservation, and food services.” I imagine it’s only a matter of time until this catches on around the league and other teams invest in environmental advisors.

Sorting out the projected 2019 Triple-A Scranton roster

January 24, 2019 by Mike

In the current age of baseball a 25-man roster is not enough. Teams have an active 25-man roster each night, yes, but there are also a handful of players in Triple-A who shuttle back and forth as needed. New middle relievers are brought in almost daily and teams even swap out bench players for matchup purposes going into a series. There’s the 25-man roster and a Triple-A taxi squad.

Last season 49 different players appeared in a game for the Yankees, and that doesn’t include Ryan Bollinger and Domingo Acevedo, who were called up for a day (twice, in Bollinger’s case) but did not appear in a game. A total of 1,379 players appeared in an MLB game last season, or 46 per team on average. The Blue Jays led the way with 63 different players, three more than any other team. The Rockies and Astros used only 41 players apiece, somehow.

The Yankees no longer have a top notch farm system but they do have a good farm system. So much of their talent is in the lower minors though, and thus is not a realistic option to be called up this year. The Triple-A taxi squad will likely feature many players we’ve seen already, either guys who were up last year in a similar capacity, or filled a similar role with another team. Some young minor leaguers, some veteran journeymen.

Because the Triple-A roster is now an extension of the MLB roster, I think it’s important to look at the projected Triple-A roster to figure out who fits where, and who could be a call-up option. On paper, the big league roster is fairly set. The Yankees don’t have many open spots or undecided roles, which makes this exercise a little easier. There’s not as much guesswork as usual. Let’s start with position players. Here are the Triple-A roster candidates. An asterisk (*) denotes a player on the 40-man roster.

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Utility
Francisco Diaz	Mandy Alvarez	Trey Amburgey	Devyn Bolasky
Kyle Higashioka*	Greg Bird*	Billy Burns	Billy Fleming
Ryan Lavarnway	Thairo Estrada*	Clint Frazier*	L.J. Mazzilli
	Mike Ford	Jeff Hendrix	Ryan McBroom
	Kyle Holder	Matt Lipka
	Gosuke Katoh	Zack Zehner
	Gio Urshela
	Luke Voit*
	Tyler Wade*

At the moment the Yankees have one bench spot unaccounted for at the big league level. That’s it. Assuming another three-man bench/eight-man bullpen, the other eleven position player spots have been accounted for already. Injuries could change things, of course, and they will, but right now all but one of the 12 position player spots are filled. That makes life easy here. Let’s go through the Triple-A position players.

Catcher: Always the easiest position. Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine are locked into big league roster spots, leaving Higashioka (the up-and-down third catcher) and Lavarnway (has MLB time) for Triple-A Scranton. Diaz figures to bounce between Double-A and Triple-A as needed, which he’s done the last few seasons. Higashioka and Lavarnway will be Scranton’s catchers.

Infielders: Earlier this month Brian Cashman said Voit will be the big league starting first baseman “unless Bird beats him out,” and right now my guess is Bird will not beat him out in Spring Training. Voit was the starter to finish last season and I’ll bet on him being the starter to begin this season. We can remove Voit from Triple-A consideration.

That said, I think the chances of Bird getting the final big league bench spot are annoyingly high. He seems immune to being sent down. Even last August, after Voit took the first base job, the Yankees kept Bird on the bench rather than send him down for at-bats. I don’t get it. If he loses the first base job, he should be sent down, but I just can’t shake the feeling he’s going to be the final bench guy.

Because of that I’m going to assume Bird is in the big leagues, meaning Wade and Estrada are definitely in Triple-A, as is Ford. Urshela has big league time and was the RailRiders’ best hitter late last season, so he’ll of course be in Triple-A as well. That’s the starting infield right there. Urshela, Estrada, Wade, and Ford around the horn. Holder’s going to play everyday in Double-A, not sit on the Triple-A bench. That leaves Alvarez and Katoh for possible bench roles. We’ll get to them in a bit.

Outfielders: Bird getting the final MLB bench spot means Frazier goes to Triple-A, which is fine with me. He missed the end of last season with post-concussion symptoms and getting him regular at-bats in the minors wouldn’t be the worst thing. I expect Frazier to be at least platooning with Brett Gardner in left field by the end of the season, if not playing the position on an everyday basis. For now, he’s Scranton bound.

Burns has big league time and is ticketed for Triple-A. Lipka getting an invite to Spring Training leads me to believe the Yankees are not planning to send him down to Double-A, where he played most of last year. If Lipka is ticketed for Triple-A, it leaves Amburgey, Hendrix, and Zehner for the fourth outfielder’s spot. Zehner has spent the last year and a half in Triple-A and Hendrix has spent the last year and a half in Double-A. Hmmm.

Amburgey had a good but not great year in Double-A last season and, if Lipka is going to Triple-A, I think Amburgey goes back to Double-A to play every day. If the Yankees are willing to send Lipka to Double-A, then Amburgey would go to Triple-A. My hunch is Lipka to Triple-A, Zehner as Scranton’s fourth outfielder, and Amburgey and Hendrix to Double-A. Once the inevitable injury or call-up strikes, Amburgey or Hendrix gets moved up.

Utility: We have two catchers (Higashioka, Lavarnway), four infielders (Estrada, Ford, Urshela, Wade), and four outfielders (Burns, Frazier, Lipka, Zehner). That leaves two open position player spots and, honestly, these are easy calls. It should be Mazzilli and McBroom. They have the most Triple-A time among the remaining players and they’d allow Alvarez and Katoh to play everyday in Double-A. Bolasky and Fleming are organizational utility guys who’ve been bouncing from level-to-level the last few years. No reason to think they won’t do it again.

The Triple-A position player side of things was pretty easy this year because the Yankees have all but one of their big league position player spots filled. Last year we were trying to figure out what to do with Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. That’s not the case now. Anyway, for the heck of it, here’s a potential RailRiders’ lineup based on everything we just talked out:

1. 2B/SS/3B Tyler Wade
2. 2B/SS/3B Thairo Estrada
3. OF Clint Frazier
4. 1B/DH Mike Ford
5. 1B/DH Ryan McBroom
6. 3B/SS Gio Urshela
7. C Kyle Higashioka
8. OF Billy Burns
9. OF Matt Lipka

Bench: C Lavarnway, IF Mazzilli, OF Zehner

The RailRiders had some absurdly strong lineups last year before injuries and the trade deadline thinned out the roster. The projected 2019 lineup I have above is quite strong for Triple-A. Devoid of prospects (Estrada is the only actual prospect in that lineup now that Wade and Frazier have graduated to MLB) but still strong. The RailRiders will score some runs this coming season. Now let’s get to the pitching staff.

Starters	Righty Relievers	Lefty Relievers
Domingo Acevedo*	Cale Coshow	Rex Brothers
Chance Adams*	Raynel Espinal	Danny Coulombe
Luis Cessa*	J.P. Feyereisen	Phil Diehl
Nestor Cortes	Joe Harvey*	Stephen Tarpley*
Domingo German*	Ben Heller*
Drew Hutchison	Tommy Kahnle*
Brian Keller	Brady Lail
Mike King
Jonathan Loaisiga*

The Sonny Gray trade means the Yankees now have two open big league bullpen spots. By no means do I think this is set in stone, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Cessa and Kahnle have a leg up on those two bullpen spots because they are out of minor league options and can’t be sent to Triple-A without passing through waivers. I don’t think either would clear. If A.J. Cole got claimed earlier this month, Cessa and Kahnle would get claimed.

Because of that, I’m going to assume Cessa and Kahnle are getting the final two big league bullpen spots for the purposes of this exercise. I’m also assuming Heller won’t be ready to pitch Opening Day. He had his Tommy John surgery on April 7th last year and is likely looking at a May or June return. We can remove him from consideration for the RailRiders’ pitching staff. There are 20 names in the table. Removing Cessa, Kahnle, and Heller leaves up 17 candidates for the 13-man Triple-A pitching staff.

Starters: Is it me or does this seem completely obvious? Adams, German, Hutchison, King, and Loaisiga should be the Triple-A Scranton starters to begin the season. Keller is a fringe prospect who was just okay with Double-A Trenton last year. Sending him back there is no big deal. Cortes has done the Triple-A swingman thing plenty already and I think he’s headed for that role again.

That leaves Acevedo, who has a strong case to begin the season in Triple-A after throwing 144 very good (2.63 ERA and 3.06 FIP) innings with Double-A Trenton the last two years. There is a numbers crunch here though. Adams, German, King, and Loaisiga are legitimate prospects (German’s exhausted his rookie eligibility but you know what I mean) who need to work on things in Triple-A and also stay ready for a possible call-up. Hutchison didn’t sign with the Yankees to be a Triple-A long man.

Because of that, I think Acevedo is ticketed for a return to Double-A to begin the season, which is not the end of the world. Someone will get hurt or traded or called up before April ends, at which point Acevedo can come up and assume the rotation spot. Besides, after missing so much time last year, I kinda want to see Acevedo miss bats in Double-A again (20.2% strikeouts last year) before moving him up. Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga is the tentative Triple-A rotation in whatever order, and I feel pretty good about that.

Relievers: Cortes is likely to again serve as the heavily used swingman — part of me wonders whether the Yankees would use a six-man rotation in Scranton to begin the season (probably not) — and the rest of the bullpen falls into place behind him. Espinal and Harvey were a dynamite setup man/closer combination for the RailRiders last year and they’ll do it again this year. Tarpley will join them as a late-inning option.

Brothers and Coulombe have big league time and are on minor league contracts, so they’re going to Triple-A, not Double-A. Coshow and Feyereisen spent most of last year in Triple-A as well and it’s safe to expect them to return to Scranton to begin the season. That’s eight relievers right there. Here’s our final product pitching staff:

Starters: Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga
Relievers: Brothers, Cortes, Coshow, Coulombe, Espinal, Feyereisen, Harvey, Tarpley

That assumes Kahnle and Cessa are in the big leagues and Heller will still be rehabbing come Opening Day. Acevedo, Keller, and Diehl go to Double-A. Diehl threw only 26.2 innings at Double-A last year, so going back there to begin this season is no big deal. Lail draws the short straw and is the odd man out, but he bounced back and forth between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and doing it again wouldn’t surprise me. He’s been passed by several others in the organization, like Harvey and Tarpley.

I should note it is not uncommon for a Triple-A team to carry nine relievers and two bench players at various points throughout the season, especially in April, when young starters are still getting stretched all the way out. Lail’s the obvious candidate to be the ninth reliever and I imagine McBroom would get dropped from the position player group to open a spot. Zehner has more Triple-A time and Mazzilli can play anywhere. McBroom rode the Double-A/Triple-A shuttle last year and he’d do it again this year.

Update: I completely forgot about the recently signed Danny Farquhar. He’s obviously going to Triple-A. I think that would mean Coshow gets pushed down to Double-A since he struggled with the RailRiders last year. My bad.

Wade (infield), Frazier (outfield), and Higashioka (catcher) are poised to be the regular up-and-down position players this season. Estrada lost essentially an entire season to injury last year and figures to stay in Triple-A to make up for that lost time. Pitching staff call-ups are a little more up in the air because they depend as much on who’s available (so and so started yesterday, etc.) as they do who the Yankees want to call up. Because the MLB roster is fairly set right now, piecing together the Triple-A team is fairly straightforward. At least until injuries and call-ups throw a wrench into things.

Brian Cashman confirms Domingo German has a fourth minor league option

January 9, 2019 by Mike

In a pleasantly surprisingly bit of news, Brian Cashman confirmed to Brendan Kuty that righty Domingo German has a fourth minor league option. That means the Yankees will be able to send him to Triple-A this coming season without exposing him to waivers. (Cashman also confirmed Luis Cessa out of options, which we knew already.)

Long story short, players get three options once they’re added to the 40-man roster. That means they can be sent back and forth between MLB and the minors in three separate seasons with no issues. Once a player exhausts his three option years, he has to pass through waivers to go to the minors, which can create some roster headaches.

The eligibility rules for a fourth option year were complicated a few years ago but MLB has apparently simplified things. Here are the fourth option rules:

If a player misses an entire option year due to injury or expends his third option year before he has completed five professional seasons (Major Leagues and Minor Leagues included), he can receive a fourth option year.

German falls into the former category. He missed 2015, his first option year, rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so that qualifies him for the fourth option. German used his original three options in 2015, 2017, and 2018. (He didn’t use an option in 2016 because he was a non-40-man roster player after being non-tendered and re-signed to a minor league deal prior to the season.)

Alright, so what does this mean? It means the Yankees will again be able to use German as an up-and-down arm in 2019. Had he not qualified for a fourth option, he would’ve had to pass through waivers to go to Triple-A, and there’s no chance he’d clear. Not at age 26 and not with an arm like that. The Yankees would’ve been forced to either keep German on their MLB roster, trade him, or lose him on waivers. Now they have more roster flexibility.

German pitched to a 5.57 ERA (4.39 FIP) in 85.2 innings spread across 14 starts and seven relief appearances last season. His strikeout (27.2%) and walk (8.8%) rates were good. He didn’t get as many ground balls (37.4%) as his stuff would lead you to believe though. Because he can be sent back to Triple-A without passing through waivers, German is now the odds on favorite to serve as the spot starter/sixth starter this coming season (pending a Sonny Gray trade).

Cessa, Tommy Kahnle, Hanser Alberto, and Gary Sanchez are the only players on the 40-man roster who are currently out of minor league options. Aaron Hicks and Austin Romine are out of options as well, but because they have more than five years of service time, they could’ve refused a minor league demotion even if they had options.

Taking stock of the 2019 Yankees with two months to go until Spring Training

December 17, 2018 by Mike

Where does Bird fit in? (Omar Rawlings/Getty)

At the moment the Yankees are a little more than halfway through their offseason. It has been 68 days since their ALDS Game Four loss and there are 58 days to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Hooray for being closer to Spring Training than the ALDS. Baseball is approaching.

The Yankees have been fairly busy this offseason, most notably adding James Paxton and re-signing several players (Brett Gardner, J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia). They also added some depth pieces through waiver claims and minor trades. Still on the offseason to-do list is find a Didi Gregorius replacement and also bolster the bullpen. That’s the short version. There are still other needs as well.

With the Winter Meetings over and the Yankees slightly more than halfway through their offseason, I figured this was as good a time as any to take a step back and examine the current state of the roster. The projected 25-man Opening Day roster, that is. Here’s what we know right now:

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Luke Voit	LF Brett Gardner	J.A. Happ	Dellin Betances
	2B G. Torres/OPEN	CF Aaron Hicks	James Paxton	Aroldis Chapman
	SS G. Torres/OPEN	RF Aaron Judge	CC Sabathia	Chad Green
	3B Miguel Andujar	OF Giancarlo Stanton	Luis Severino	Jonathan Holder
			Masahiro Tanaka	OPEN
BENCH	DISABLED LIST			OPEN
Austin Romine	Didi Gregorius	LIMBO		OPEN
OPEN	Ben Heller	Jacoby Ellsbury		OPEN
OPEN	Jordan Montgomery	Sonny Gray

Also on the 40-man roster: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Parker Bridwell, RHP Luis Cessa, RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Domingo German, RHP Joe Harvey, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, LHP Stephen Tarpley, C Kyle Higashioka, IF Hanser Alberto, 1B Greg Bird, IF Thairo Estrada, UTIL Tyler Wade, UTIL Tim Locastro, OF Clint Frazier.

That is a sneaky number of OPEN spots! I count seven. Four in the bullpen, two on the bench, and one at either second base or shortstop. The Yankees of course have in-house options for those seven OPEN spots and, in some cases, the in-house options are preferable to spending on a back of the roster player(s). Why spend money on a utility infielder who is no lock to perform better than Wade or Albert or Locastro, you know?

There are 18 healthy players on the 40-man roster who are not part of my projected big league roster in that table. We can drop those 18 players into one of five buckets. Let’s do exactly that.

1. Going to the minors (4). I think we can safely assume Abreu, Acevedo, Higashioka, and Estrada are going to begin 2019 in the minors. Higashioka is the third catcher and both Abreu and Acevedo have development remaining. They’re not MLB ready. Estrada missed basically the entire 2018 season with various injuries and needs to catch up on lost at-bats. The Yankees have plenty of other infield options.

2. Out of options (6). Six of those 18 players can not be sent to the minors next year without passing through waivers: Alberto, Bridwell, Cessa, Cole, German, and Kahnle. Chances are a few of these guys will be gone before Spring Training begins — the Yankees still have to open a 40-man spot for Happ, for example — but they’re on the roster right now, so they get dropped in this bucket.

Being out of options does not guarantee a player an MLB roster spot but it can be a tiebreaker. If, for example, the final bench spot comes down to Alberto or Wade, it could go to Alberto because he can’t be sent down and Wade can. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want German (long man/spot starter) and Kahnle (middle reliever) to shove in Spring Training and grab bullpen spots. But, if Bridwell or Cessa or Cole appear to be better options, then they’ll get the Opening Day bullpen assignments.

3. Other bullpen candidates (4). Adams, Harvey, Loaisiga, and Tarpley are bullpen candidates in addition to those out-of-options arms. Tarpley strikes me as most likely to win an Opening Day roster spot simply based on the fact he impressed enough in September to get an ALDS roster spot. Also, he and Chapman are the only lefty relievers on the 40-man roster, and Chapman’s the closer. He’s not going to be brought into a sixth inning matchup situation. Left-on-left relievers are largely disappearing from baseball, but Tarpley could crack the Opening Day roster.

My hunch is the Yankees want Loaisiga to go to Triple-A to begin next year. He impressed in his four-start cameo this summer (not so much in September) but the kid has never pitched in Triple-A and he has 196 career innings to his credit. I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to carry Loaisiga in their bullpen next year if he’s one of their best options — he has a scary injury history and you might as well get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again — but, in a perfect world, they’d be able to send him to Triple-A for more tune-up work.

Adams and Harvey are straight up bullpen candidates. Surely the Yankees hope to have better options come Spring Training, but, if they don’t, Adams and especially Harvey could win bullpen jobs. Adams might be at a disadvantage given his ability to start. The Yankees could send him to Triple-A to remain stretched out as the sixth starter and go with someone else in the bullpen. Adams wouldn’t be the first guy to lose out on a big league bullpen gig because the team wants stash him in Triple-A as a starter.

4. Second base/shortstop options (2). Assuming Estrada is indeed ticketed for Triple-A, the top in-house second base/shortstop candidates aside from Alberto are Locastro and Wade. I expect the Yankees to add a middle infielder at some point between now and Spring Training, but, if they don’t, those are the internal options. Locastro and Wade (and Alberto). Seeing how Wade was the Opening Day second basemen this year, and Locastro is more of an outfielder who can play second base than the other way around, I think Wade would be the guy right now. If the season started today, Wade and Gleyber Torres would be the starting middle infielders. That’s what I think.

5. Other bench candidates (2). We’re down to two names: Bird and Frazier. Two former top prospects who have lost a lot of time to injuries in recent years. We know all about Bird’s problems. Last year’s oblique injury and this year’s concussion issues have limited Frazier to 745 plate appearances and 182 total games the last two years. That’s a real bummer. Had he been healthy this past season, Clint could’ve filled in for Judge in August and who knows, perhaps he plays well enough to win the 2019 left field job outright and convince the Yankees to move on from Gardner.

As for Bird, gosh, I don’t know what the Yankees will do with him. Voit has clearly jumped him on the first base depth chart, but the Yankees do love Bird, and would it really shock anyone if they carried him on the bench next year? I mean, they did this year, right? It’s one thing to do it in August and just buy time until rosters expand on September 1st. It’s another to do it on Opening Day. The Yankees are an eight-man bullpen/three-man bench team and using two of those three bench spots on a backup catcher and a backup first baseman seems … unwise.

The x-factor here is Ellsbury. He’s coming back from major hip surgery and Brian Cashman is already hedging against Ellsbury being ready for Opening Day, but, if he is ready, he might get a bench spot by default. I think it is far more likely the Yankees will release Ellsbury than carry him on the roster next year, but what do I know? If he’s healthy and Frazier needs Triple-A time after all the injuries, carrying Ellsbury as the reserve outfielder could very well be in the cards. As for Gray, the other guy in limbo, he’s a goner. He’ll be traded at some point.

* * *

To me, Locastro is the under-the-radar guy to watch. He can play almost anywhere, he’s a .307/.402/.443 (128 wRC+) hitter in 471 career Triple-A plate appearances, he’s a great runner (169-for-208 career stealing bases, an 81% success rate), and he doesn’t strike out much (career 11.5% strikeouts). I’m not saying I want Locastro on the Opening Day roster. I’m just saying he’s currently the odds on favorite to be this year’s “no one expected him to make the team but he did” guy.

Anyway, we had seven OPEN spots in our original table and this is how I think the Yankees would fill them if the season started today, which thankfully it does not.

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Voit	LF Gardner	Happ	CL Chapman
	2B Torres/Wade	CF Hicks	Paxton	SU Betances
	SS Torres/Wade	RF Judge	Sabathia	SU Green
	3B Andujar	OF Stanton	Severino	MR Holder
BENCH			Tanaka	MR Kahnle
C Romine	DISABLED LIST			MR Tarpley
IF Alberto	Ellsbury	Heller		LG Cessa
UTIL Locastro	Gregorius	Montgomery		LG German

That leaves the out-of-options Bridwell and Cole out in the cold — the Yankees really seems to like Cessa — Loaisiga and Frazier getting regular playing time in Triple-A, and Bird in Scranton. As much as the Yankees like (or liked, once upon a time) Bird, I think they’re at the point where they need to see health and production before giving him a roster spot. That Voit is around as a viable first base alternative makes this even more likely.

Would the Yankees play Wade at second base and Torres at shortstop, or the other way around? Either way works, really. I think I’d prefer Wade at short and Torres at second because second base is Gleyber’s likely long-term position and he still has only 132 career games worth of experience at the position. My preference, whether the Yankees go internal with Wade (nah) or bring in a middle infielder from outside the organization (yup), is to keep Torres at second base. I’d have no problem with him at short. Second would be my preference though.

Anyway, this is all a very long way of me saying the Yankees still have some unresolved roster spots, maybe more than anyone realized. The middle infield is unsettled, two bench spots are unclaimed, and there are four open bullpen spots. It’s easy to see why the Yankees want two relievers, right? Yes, they can fill some of those spots internally and I’m sure they will. Filling all of them internally seems like a non-option though. The good news is there’s lots of offseason remaining. The bad news is the Yankees still have a sneaky large amount of work to do this winter.

The Tantalizing Sixth Starter [2018 Season Review]

November 12, 2018 by Mike

Not counting that weird two-inning spot start by Chad Green that gave everyone an extra day of rest, the Yankees made it all the way until mid-June before needing a sixth starter last season. A minor left hamstring issue sent CC Sabathia to the disabled list for two weeks. His replacement, Luis Cessa, made his first start on June 18th, in the team’s 67th game of the season. Going that long without needing a sixth starter is pretty good!

This season the Yankees needed their sixth starter in early-May. Jordan Montgomery exited his May 1st start after one inning with an injury that would eventually lead to Tommy John surgery. Long man Domingo German came out of the bullpen, shoved for four innings in Houston, then joined the rotation. German pitched more this season than you may realize. His team ranks:

Starts: 14 (fifth behind Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, and Sonny Gray)
Innings: 85.2 (fifth behind Severino, Tanaka, Sabathia, Gray)
Strikeouts: 102 (sixth behind Severino, Tanaka, Sabathia, Gray, and Dellin Betances)

Who knew German finished fifth on the Yankees in innings? He made 14 starts and seven relief appearances and finished with a 5.57 ERA (4.39 FIP) and a very good strikeout rate (27.2%), a good walk rate (8.8%), and a not good ground ball rate (37.4%). Like seemingly everyone else, German was much better as a reliever (3.12 ERA and 3.22 FIP) than as a starter (6.19 ERA and 4.68 FIP).

A very good start to German’s stint in the rotation quickly gave way to inconsistency and a trip to the minors, and, eventually, the disabled list. German missed most of the second half with a nerve issue in his elbow before resurfacing as a seldom-used September call-up. Let’s review Little Sunday’s season.

A Candidate For An Opener

German replaced Montgomery in that May 1st game and threw four scoreless innings against the Astros. It was impressive. Five days later he made his first big league start and struck out nine in six no-hit innings against the Indians while being held to a pitch count (he worked out of the bullpen in previous weeks). This was the “wow the Yankees might really have something here” moment.

German’s first start was incredible. Things went downhill after that. Next time out the Athletics tagged him for six run in five innings. In his next start after that, German gave up six runs in 3.2 innings to the Rangers. Following that stellar first start, German allowed at least four runs in each of his next four starts. He finished the year with more starts with 6+ runs allowed (four) than starts with fewer than three runs allowed (three).

In his 14 starts German had a 6.19 ERA (4.68 FIP) while averaging fewer than five innings per start (4.88 innings per start, to be exact.) To make matters worse, he consistently put the Yankees in an early hole. German allowed a first inning run in seven of his 14 starts. Four times he allowed multiple runs in the first inning. His numbers as a starting pitcher:

First Inning: 8.36 ERA (5.52 FIP) and .283/.348/.667 against
All Other Innings: 5.63 ERA (4.19 FIP) and .232/.314/.431 against

The ERA is still high after the first inning, for sure, but a little more help from the bullpen stranding runners would’ve been nice, plus everything else is much better. The batting lines do not compare and neither do the home run rates (2.57 HR/9 vs. 1.49 HR/9). That first inning of the game, the only inning in which a team is guaranteed to send their best hitters to the plate, was a big problem for German.

I wrote about using an opener for German once and mentioned it several more times. Getting German away from the top of the other team’s lineup the first time through the order seemed worthwhile. The Yankees could’ve used Jonathan Holder or Chad Green or David Robertson to open before giving the ball to German for innings two through whatever. Hopefully six, but even five would’ve sufficed. The Yankees never did that and German’s first inning woes against the other team’s best hitters put New York down early in half his starts. Harrumph.

The Measurables That Make You Want To Believe

Go watch that video of German’s start against the Indians again. This dude’s stuff is super legit. He’s got a mid-90s heater with some run, a snappy breaking ball that dives out of the zone, and a hard changeup with big time fade. Nothing the guy throws is straight and I suspect at least part of his command trouble stems from the liveliness of his stuff. When your pitches move like that, it can be hard to locate them.

The measurables on German’s stuff are awfully good. He checks all the boxes when it comes to velocity, spin rate, and things like that. Check it out (MLB averages in parentheses):

	Fastball	Curveball	Changeup
Velocity	94.5 mph (92.9 mph)	81.9 mph (78.3 mph)	87.4 mph (84.2 mph)
Spin Rate	2,498 rpm (2,238 rpm)	2,507 rpm (2,493 mph)	2,392 rpm (1,774 rpm)
Whiffs-per-Swing	27.5% (19.7%)	41.3% (32.0%)	35.8% (31.1%)
Ground Balls	29.9% (39.5%)	38.2% (47.0%)	50.0% (50.4%)

There are two negatives in that table. One, German’s fastball and curveball ground ball rates are comfortably below-average. That doesn’t mean they’ll be below-average forever. They could improve with experience and natural development. In 2018 though, they were below-average. And two, German’s changeup spin rate is too high. You want a low spin rate on the changeup so it tumbles down and out of the zone. His spun too much this year.

Aside from that, man does it look good. Excellent velocity and comfortably above-average whiff-per-swing rates across the board. German’s fastball spin rate is very good. It’s right up there with Aroldis Chapman (2,499 rpm), Max Scherzer (2,486 rpm), and Corey Knebel (2,477 rpm). There is much more to life than velocity and spin rate, believe me, but you can’t fake it. Either you can throw the ball hard and make it spin, or you can’t. German can.

There’s a chance German will fall by the wayside like countless other great stuff/bad command pitchers. It happens. A lot. In German’s case, I can’t help but watch him and want to believe. The stuff is so good. This guy was a former top prospect with the Marlins, remember. Can German ever get over the hump and turn his impressive stuff into consistent MLB success? We’ve seen flashes, but it hasn’t happened yet.

What’s Next?

The Yankees and German have reached a crossroads. He is now out of minor league options, meaning he can’t be sent to the minors without clearing waivers, and I see little chance of that happening. German is young enough (26) and his stuff is good enough that he’d get claimed, I think. Some rebuilding team would take a chance on him given the essentially free acquisition cost. I sure would.

One of three things will happen with German this offseason. One, he’ll stick with the Yankees and compete for a job in Spring Training. Two, they’ll trade him. Maybe as part of a larger package, maybe in a minor trade, or maybe as a way to unload salary a la Bryan Mitchell in the Chase Headley trade last winter. Or three, the Yankees will designate German for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot and (probably) lose him on waivers.

I’d say sticking with the Yankees is most likely, followed by a trade. I can’t see them giving German away for nothing on waivers. Not yet, anyway. Maybe things’ll change at midseason next year. Right now, I think he sticks or gets traded. I would really like to see German in a one inning “air it out” relief role. His command stinks, but you can hide bad command in the bullpen. Maybe German could out-stuff hitters a la Betances and Chapman as a reliever? I hope we get a chance to find out next season.