Danny Salazar Archives - River Avenue Blues

Scouting the Trade Market: Cleveland Indians Pitchers

February 6, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

We are mere days from the beginning of semi-meaningful baseball activities, as Yankees pitchers and catchers are set to report on February 13. Despite this proximity to actual baseball, the off-season as a whole still seems rather unsettled. This isn’t news to anyone, considering that the story of the Winter as a whole is essentially the lack of stories, but that is nevertheless where we are right now. What we do know is that the Yankees have been looking to add another starting pitcher from day one-ish, and there is nothing to suggest that they’ve been deterred from that plan.

And the Indians, who have four starting pitchers vying for two spots (and a penchant for being cash-strapped), may have what the Yankees are looking for.

Mike Clevinger

Clevinger, who turned 27 in December, has been something of an up-and-down guy for the Indians over the last two years, shuttling between Triple-A and the majors, and bouncing between the bullpen and the rotation. He spent the majority of 2017 in the majors though, pitching to the following line in 27 games (21 starts): 121.2 IP, 91 H, 60 BB, 137 K, 3.11 ERA (147 ERA+), 3.85 FIP, 39.5 GB%.

What stands out the most about Clevinger’s season are his walks (4.4 per 9), strikeouts (10.1 per 9), and the low groundball rate. The strikeouts are great; the walks and lack of grounders … not so much. This right in-line with his Triple-A performance, as well, where he has posted 9.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 39.7% grounders in parts of two seasons. That isn’t to suggest that the possibility of improvement isn’t there – but we have a fair amount of evidence saying that this is who he is.

Clevinger is a four-pitch guy, working with a low-to-mid 90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, a low-80s slider, and a mid-70s curve. The slider is regarded as his best pitch, and that held true in 2017 as he posted a 22.9% whiff rate on the offering, and hitters hit just .099 (not a typo) against it. Clevinger’s fastball velocity did dip by nearly 2 MPH from 2016 to 2017, but he attributed that to mechanical issues, and not a lingering injury.

Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; under team control through 2022.

Is there a catch? Clevinger seems to be the inside horse for the fourth or fifth spot in the Indians rotation, so the likelihood of him being dealt is probably low.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? Yes and no. Yes, in that he’s a young, cost-controlled starter that can strike out batters in droves. And no, in that he walks a bunch of batters and has a propensity for flyballs.

Ryan Merritt

If you know anything about Merritt, it’s probably that he came out of nowhere to start Game 5 of the 2016 ALCS for the Indians – and he did pretty well for a rookie pitcher with all of 11 innings pitched at the highest level. He held the Blue Jays to just two hits in 4.1 IP, striking out three and walking none, and became something of a minor cult hero in doing so. Merritt was rewarded by being left off of the World Series roster, and spending the first two and a half months of 2017 in the minors.

Merritt ended up spending the majority of 2017 in Triple-A, making only four spot starts and one relief appearances in the majors. He posted a 1.74 ERA (266 ERA+) and 3.06 FIP in 20.2 big league innings, to go along with a microscopic 1.7 BB/9 and a strong 53.8% ground ball rate. Those are really good numbers, sample size be damned – so why did Merritt fail to garner a real opportunity with the Indians? He struck out just 7 batters in those 20.2 innings, after striking out just 6.0 per 9 in parts of three seasons at Triple-A.

As one could easily surmise from those numbers, Merritt is a prototypical crafty/finesse southpaw. He throws four pitches: a mid-to-upper 80s four-seamer, a mid-80s cutter, a low-80s change-up, and a low-70s curveball. And he throws all four pitches in any count, essentially challenging hitters to try to square up soft stuff that moves all over the place. None of his pitches profile as anything more than average, but he does have excellent command and control, and he has kept the ball on the ground throughout his professional career. He’ll be 26 in a couple of weeks.

Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; under team control through 2023.

Is there a catch? Not really.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? Merritt makes sense in the “depth arm under control forever” sort of way, but a pitchers that can’t strike anyone out is a scary proposition in Yankee Stadium, regardless of the rest of his profile.

Danny Salazar

The Indians are open to dealing Salazar, as per Ken Rosenthal, and that is not terribly surprising. Salazar will earn $5 MM this year, which isn’t so cheap for a team that pinches pennies, and he has dealt with elbow, shoulder, and forearm problems in two of the last three seasons. He missed about seven weeks in the middle of 2017 with shoulder soreness, and another couple of weeks with elbow soreness in late August and early September. The Indians were cautious when he came back, shuttling him to the bullpen for two weeks and limiting him to 54 and 64 pitches, respectively, in his last two starts.

There are some red flags here, is what I’m saying.

That being said, the 28-year-old Salazar has performed well when he is on the field. He posted a 4.28 ERA (107 ERA+) and 3.48 FIP around his injuries last year (which limited him to 103 IP), with 12.7 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. And it’s worth noting that he improved dramatically after returning from his shoulder injury, posting a 3.00 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 12.8 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 over the last two-plus months of the season. His groundball rate improved from a scary 37.1% to a more palatable 41.9% in that stretch, too.

Salazar’s stuff does not appear to have been affected by the injuries, either. Take a look:

His yearly velocity since 2014 (his extended trial in the majors) has been 95.73, 95.94, 95.84, and 95.64 – and that’s definitely a good sign. Overall, Salazar focuses on three pitches in his mid-90s four-seamer, mid-90s sinker, and mid-80s change-up. He also throws a mid-80s slider and a low-80s curve, but rarely more than a few per game.

Contract Status: Arbitration eligible; under team control through 2020.

Is there a catch? Aside from the chances of his arm falling apart?

Does he make sense for the Yankees? Absolutely. Salazar has premium stuff and a track record of success in the majors, and he’s under team control for two more seasons beyond this one. The injuries are scary, but the Yankees have the pitching depth to keep his workload down … and maybe, just maybe, those injuries will keep his price tag down.

Josh Tomlin

There are two things that never fail to surprise me when I read about Josh Tomlin – his age (he’ll be 33 for the entirety of the regular season), and the fact that he’s right-handed. There’s just something about Tomlin’s finesse style that forces me to remember him as a southpaw, and I haven’t been able to shake it … even as he enters his ninth season in the majors.

Tomlin was the Indians fifth starter for the majority of 2017, and he was mostly serviceable in that role. He posted a 4.98 ERA (92 ERA+) and 4.12 FIP in 141 IP, good for between 1 and 2.2 WAR, depending upon your metric of choice. He struck out a modest 7.0 per 9, walked just 0.9 per 9 (a 2.4% walk rate), and allowed lots of home runs owing largely to a 39.6% groundball rate. And all of that is right in-line with Tomlin’s career to date, with the only real blips stemming from Tommy John surgery in August of 2012.

Tomlin is basically a three-pitch guy, working with a four-seamer in the high-80s, a low-to-mid 80s change-up, and a mid-80s cutter. He’ll also throw a mid-70s curveball every so often, but that’s mostly a show-me pitch. Tomlin’s velocity has steadily dropped over the last few years, and he’s lost a bit over 2 MPH on his four-seamer since 2014.

Contract Status: Signed through 2018.

Is there a catch? He’s a rental.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? Nope. Tomlin might be a nice depth piece to stash at Triple-A, and he’s only owed $3 MM for this season – but there are plenty of free agents out there that could do the same thing.

Merritt and Tomlin are only worth mentioning in that I could see the Indians moving one or both, but neither moves the needle otherwise. Chance Adams was invited to Spring Training, David Hale was recently signed to a minor league deal, and Luis Cessa is on the 40-man roster, and I have to imagine that at least one of those three could give the Yankees the same sort of production as Merritt and/or Tomlin.

That leaves us with Clevinger and Salazar. Clevinger would almost certainly cost more, as the younger, healthier pitcher with way more team control remaining. And Salazar, even with his injuries, has been linked to other teams this off-season, so we know there’s interest out there. The Indians are very much a playoff contender, so any deal would have to involve MLB pieces and/or MLB-ready pieces, and their biggest need is center – and, given their payroll constraints, that probably means that Aaron Hicks or Clint Frazier would be the most desirable trade chip the Yankees have.

An interesting consideration may be the Yankees taking on Jason Kipnis and his contract. The Indians might not have a place for him on their ideal roster, and he fits a need for the Yankees. My trade proposal sucks, so I’ll leave it at that – but it isn’t difficult to see a potential match here.

Scouting the Trade Market: Hard-throwing strike-throwers who fit Yankees’ mold

November 24, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

Salazar, Carrasco, and Anderson could all be trade targets. (Presswire)

According to pretty much every report we’ve seen this offseason, the Yankees are looking for pitching in any trade. They’re said to at least be listening to offers for Brett Gardner and Andrew Miller, if not shopping them. Payroll isn’t going up next season and the Yankees didn’t have much money come off the books, so trades are the only real avenue for significant improvement.

The current rotation is again full of question marks — Masahiro Tanaka just had elbow surgery, Nathan Eovaldi had an elbow injury at the end of the year, CC Sabathia’s knee is an ongoing issue, etc. — and the future rotation is pretty wide open. Tanaka (opt-out), Eovaldi, Sabathia, Michael Pineda, and Ivan Nova can all become free agents within the next two years, leaving Luis Severino and Adam Warren for the 2018 rotation.

Obviously that is a long way away — the 2013 Yankees got 103 starts from Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, and David Phelps, for example, so things change in a hurry — but that doesn’t mean the Yankees are wrong to worry about it now. If they’re going to deal Gardner and/or Miller, getting young controllable pitching in return makes all the sense in the world.

Over the last few years the Yankees have made it clear they have a “type,” when it comes to pitching. They love hard-throwers with very low walk rates, and the taller they are, the better. They didn’t just pick Pineda and Eovaldi out of a hat, you know. Both came to New York with huge fastballs and a low walk rate. Eovaldi (6-foot-2) isn’t as big as Pineda (6-foot-7), but he also throws 100, so yeah.

So, using all of this information, we can dig up some potential pitching trade targets for the Yankees. This isn’t to say the Yankees are (or should) pursuing these guys — or that they’re even available — but they fit what has been established as their preferred type of pitcher. Obviously some of these guys are more attainable than others, though it is interesting several are on teams who appear to match up with the Yankees for a potential trade. To the alphabetically ordered list.

RHP Cody Anderson, Indians
2015 Average Fastball Velocity: 92.1 mph (96.9 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 6.6%
Height: 6-foot-4
Years of Control: Six (three pre-arbitration and three arbitration years)

The Indians have a ton of starting pitchers, so much so that they’ve discussed trading one to address their outfield needs. They’ve spoken to the Yankees about an outfielder-for-starter trade, for example. Anderson, 24, had a 3.05 ERA (4.27 FIP) in 15 starts and 91.1 innings around an oblique injury this past season. He has above-average velocity and a history of limiting walks, though his strikeout rate (12.1%) was way below-average this year. For what it’s worth, his minor league strikeout rate (18.5%) wasn’t great either.

RHP Carlos Carrasco, Indians
2015 Average Velocity: 94.5 mph (98.8 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 5.9%
Height: 6-foot-3
Years of Control: Three (owed $19M through 2018 plus club options for 2019 and 2020)

We’ve discussed Carrasco here before, albeit briefly. Assuming Corey Kluber is off limits, the 28-year-old Carrasco is the best available Indians starter. He moved from the bullpen back into the rotation late last season, and this year he pitched to 3.63 ERA (2.84 FIP) with an elite strikeout (29.6%) rate and an excellent ground ball (51.2%) rate in 30 starts and 183.2 innings. The high-ish ERA has more to do with Cleveland’s poor team defense than anything Carrasco did. Carrasco is not super young (he turns 29 in March) but he’s signed to a dirt cheap contract and has pitched at an ace level in 40 starts since returning to the rotation. If he is actually available, it’ll cost a ton to get him.

LHP Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks
2015 Average Velocity: 92.1 mph (96.2 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 4.8%
Height: 6-foot-2
Years of Control: Three (all arbitration years)

Tommy John surgery limited Corbin, a native New Yorker, to 16 starts and 85.1 innings in 2015. His performance (3.60 ERA and 3.35 FIP) was on par with his breakout 2013 season (3.41 ERA and 3.43 FIP) before the elbow caused him to miss 2014. His strikeout (21.9%) and grounder (46.9%) rates were right in line with 2013 as well (20.7% and 46.7%). Recent Tommy John surgery is always a red flag, though it’s good to see the results and PitchFX data show Corbin was basically the same pitcher in 2015 as he was before elbow reconstruction. The D’Backs have some rotation depth and they have checked in with the Yankees about Miller, so maybe there is a Corbin for Miller plus stuff deal to be made. Remember though, Corbin is Arizona’s ace, so they may consider him untouchable, especially with three years of control remaining.

RHP Jose Fernandez, Marlins
2015 Average Velocity: 95.9 mph (99.5 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 5.3%
Height: 6-foot-2
Years of Control: Three (all arbitration years)

Depending who you want to believe, either the Marlins are open to moving the 23-year-old Fernandez because he’s a headache, or he’s completely untouchable. Reports supporting both scenarios have popped up in recent days. Either way, Fernandez is as good as it gets, pitching to a 2.92 ERA (2.24 FIP) in eleven starts and 64.1 innings this year after returning from Tommy John surgery. I wrote more about Fernandez in last week’s mailbag. The question isn’t so much is Fernandez available, but do the Yankees even have what it takes to outbid other clubs if he is? I’m leaning towards no on that one.

RHP Kevin Gausman, Orioles
2015 Average Velocity: 95.9 mph (100.3 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 6.2%
Height: 6-foot-4
Years of Control: Five (one pre-arbitration and four arbitration years as a Super Two)

Various reports indicate Gausman was a popular target at the trade deadline — the Tigers wanted him for Yoenis Cespedes, the Padres wanted him for Justin Upton, and the Rockies wanted him for Carlos Gonzalez. Baltimore said no each time, obviously. The O’s have a terrible track record of developing pitchers, and the 24-year-old Gausman followed his strong 2014 season (3.57 ERA and 3.41 FIP) with an okay at best 2015 (4.25 ERA and 4.10 FIP) while being moved back and forth between the bullpen and rotation. Gausman seems like an ideal change of scenery guy, but I have a really hard time seeing him as a realistic target. Orioles owner Peter Angelos hates the Yankees and wouldn’t risk trading Gausman only to watch him develop into a stud in pinstripes. So yeah, Gausman fits the mold as a hard-throwing strike-thrower, but this ain’t happening.

RHP Jonathan Gray, Rockies
2015 Average Velocity: 94.3 mph (98.2 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 7.6%
Height: 6-foot-4
Years of Control: Six (three pre-arbitration plus three arbitration years)

Gray, 24, came into the season as the No. 24 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, then came up late in the season and got Coors Fielded (5.53 ERA and 3.63 FIP in 40.2 innings). He did miss bats (21.6%) but didn’t get a ton of grounders (43.2%) in his limited action. The Yankees do have some history with Gray, selecting him in the tenth round of the 2011 draft, but he turned down a ton of money to go to college.

The Rockies haven’t been able to develop pitching in forever, and while trading someone like Gray seems silly, GM Jeff Bridich recently told Patrick Saunders he is “open to anything, I mean it” to improve the team, including trading young pitching. Gardner and Miller don’t appear to be matches for the Rockies — why would they want a 32-year-old outfielder or an expensive closer? — but maybe other pieces like Gary Sanchez and Jorge Mateo could entice Colorado.

LHP Andrew Heaney, Angels
2015 Average Velocity: 91.5 mph (94.9 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 6.4%
Height: 6-foot-2
Years of Control: Six (two pre-arbitration plus four arbitration years as a Super Two)

Heaney, 24, was traded twice last offseason — first for Dee Gordon then for Howie Kendrick a few hours later — and now the Angels have a new GM, and new GMs tend to trade away incumbent players because they aren’t attached to them. That said, Heaney had a really good year (3.49 ERA and 3.73 FIP in 105.2 innings) and the Halos just traded their top two pitching prospects for Andrelton Simmons, so dealing another young starter seems unlikely. Then again, the Halos do desperately need a left fielder and leadoff hitter, and perhaps GM Billy Eppler is particularly fond of Gardner after all his years with the Yankees. My guess is he values the young lefty more, but you never know.

RHP Wily Peralta, Brewers
2015 Average Velocity: 94.1 mph (97.6 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 7.7%
Height: 6-foot-1
Years of Control: Three (all arbitration years)

The Brewers are in full blown tear it down and rebuild mode, and the 26-year-old Peralta is one of the few players left on the roster with actual trade value. Unfortunately, he battled shoulder tendinitis this summer and had a miserable year, pitching to a 4.72 ERA (4.84 FIP) in 20 starts and 108.2 innings. Also, Peralta’s strikeout rate fell from 18.4% in 2014 to a well-below-average 12.6% in 2015, and gosh, that’s scary. He has gradually lowered his walk rate over the years and he’s always gotten grounders (51.6% in 2015), though the combination of a shoulder problem and a huge strikeout drop is a major red flag. Besides, the Brewers have no use for Gardner or Miller, so we’re talking a prospect package.

RHP Danny Salazar, Indians
2015 Average Velocity: 94.9 mph (98.7 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 7.0%
Height: 6-foot-0
Years of Control: Five (two pre-arbitration and three arbitration years)

Yet another Indians starter. They’ve got a lot of them. Salazar, 25, presumably lies somewhere between Carrasco and Anderson in trade value, but closer to Carrasco. He’s always had a history of limiting walks and this summer he had a great strikeout rate (25.8%) and an average-ish grounder rate (43.9%) in 185 innings, his first full season as a big leaguer (3.45 ERA and 3.62 FIP). Cleveland seems open to trading a starter for the right return, though it’s unclear if the Yankees can offer that return, regardless of whether it includes Gardner.

RHP Taijuan Walker, Mariners
2015 Average Velocity: 94.1 mph (98.2 mph max)
2015 Walk Rate: 5.7%
Height: 6-foot-4
Years of Control: Five (two pre-arbitration and three arbitration years)

The Yankees and Mariners discussed Gardner a few weeks ago, and last week George King reported the Yankees asked for Walker, which apparently ended talks. (Why do we always hear talks ended because the first ask was high? Aren’t you supposed to, you know, negotiate?) The 23-year-old Walker had an okay year this season (4.56 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 169.2 innings) but was extremely homer prone (1.33 HR/9) despite playing his home games in Safeco Field. But still, he’s a former top prospect with quality stuff, so the appeal is obvious. The Mariners refused to trade Walker for David Price a few years ago, though that was under ex-GM Jack Zduriencik. New GM Jerry Dipoto may be more open to moving Walker. Also, even though Seattle just acquired Leonys Martin, they still have a need for outfielders, so Gardner still makes some sense, though obviously Gardner-for-Walker ain’t happening. It would have to be Gardner plus stuff for the young righty.

* * *

By no means is this list intended to be comprehensive. Plenty of starters either throw hard or limit walks, but surprisingly few do both, and even fewer might actually be available this offseason. (Something tells me others like Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard are staying put, you guys.) Guys like Robbie Ray and Jimmy Nelson throw hard but walk too many hitters. Others like Josh Tomlin and Chase Anderson limit walks but work with average velocity or less.

Through their various pickups the last few years the Yankees have made it clear they like hard-throwers with low walk rates. Even small additions like Chris Martin fit the bill. The Yankees are said to be looking for starters this offseason for obvious reasons, and unless they unexpectedly shift gears, they figure to again target high-velocity, low-walk pitchers. It’s an exclusive club and those guys tend to cost quite a bit to acquire, but they aren’t off-limits either.

Morosi: Yanks among teams to talk outfielder-for-starter trade with Indians

November 19, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

According to Jon Morosi, the Yankees are among the teams tho discuss an outfielder-for-starter trade with the Indians. The Dodgers and Blue Jays are also in that mix. The Indians came into the offseason needing at least one outfielder, and that was before Michael Brantley underwent shoulder surgery, which will sideline him for the first few weeks of 2016.

Cleveland does have some big time rotation depth and they realize that is their key to success. They’re only going to go as far as their rotation will take them. They want outfield help but won’t just give away a spare arm either. Here is the rotation depth chart on the team’s official site:

The Indians also have lefty T.J. House as their seventh starter. He gave them 102 innings of 3.35 ERA (3.69 FIP) ball last year but missed most of 2015 due to shoulder inflammation. House did pitch in the Arizona Fall League and will be ready for Spring Training though.

Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar have been mentioned most often as trade bait* and both will command significant returns. Carrasco, 28, has pitched at an ace level since moving back into the rotation midway through 2014 — he has a 2.99 ERA (2.54 FIP) in 40 starts and 252.2 innings since rejoining the rotation — and his contract will pay him only $37.5M through 2020, assuming his two club options are picked up.

* Realistically, we can probably rule out the Indians trading the ultra-popular Corey Kluber. Trevor Bauer had a 4.55 ERA (4.33 FIP) this past season and had the highest walk rate in baseball (10.6%). The Yankees seek out guys with very low walk rates, so he doesn’t seem like a fit. Cody Anderson? Josh Tomlin? Eh. Carrasco and Salazar are both hard-throwers and the Yankees love that.

The 25-year-old Salazar went up and down a few times from 2013-14 before sticking for good this past season, pitching to a 3.45 ERA (3.62 FIP) in 30 starts and 185 innings. He is not signed long-term but is under team control as an arbitration-eligible player through 2020. The Yankees are said to be looking for starters they can control more than two years since basically everyone in their rotation except Luis Severino can become a free agent following the 2017 season.

Carrasco and Salazar are potential building block players because they’re so good and under control so long. The Indians don’t have to move them. It’s not like they’re impending free agents. They’ll only deal them if they get exactly what they want in return. The Tribe are a small market team with a tight payroll, so any idea of a Jacoby Ellsbury-Terry Francona reunion probably won’t happen. The obvious fit here is Brett Gardner.

The Yankees owe Gardner $38M over the next three years and even that might be too expensive for the Indians. New York could always eat some money to facilitate a trade — or take back a bad contract, like the $16.5M owed to Chris Johnson the next two years — which they’ve been willing to do in the past. They ate a bunch of money to move A.J. Burnett and more recently picked up part of Martin Prado’s contract to get Nathan Eovaldi.

Either way, Gardner for Carrasco or Salazar straight up probably isn’t happening. I’d do either of those deals in a heartbeat which means they’re lopsided in favor of the Yankees, right? More than likely it would be Gardner plus stuff for Carrasco or Salazar, and the stuff would have to be pretty good too. Gardner and Aaron Judge for Salazar or especially Carrasco would not be an unrealistic request by the Indians in my opinion. Not at all. I’d still do either of those trades which means they’re still lopsided in New York’s favor.

Point is, there’s a potential fit here. The Yankees want a starter and have extra outfielders, the Indians need an outfielder and believe they have extra starters. This could work! Addressing Gardner’s salary and finding a common ground on the talent changing hands will take some work — what if the Yankees flipped Aaron Hicks instead of Gardner? — but at least this looks doable. The Yankees and Indians appear to match up well.