Dallas Keuchel Archives - River Avenue Blues

Luis Severino’s injury and the Dallas Keuchel question

April 10, 2019 by Mike

In a season full of injuries, the Yankees received some of their worst news yet yesterday afternoon. Luis Severino has been shut down six weeks with a Grade II lat strain. He was expected back from rotator cuff inflammation sometime next month. Now Severino is looking at a mid-to-late June return at the earliest. It is entirely possible the Yankees will be without their ace until the All-Star break.

“I don’t know if ‘relief’ is the right word, but a little bit like, ‘Okay, now we know what it is.’ A little relief that it’s not going to be a surgery thing,” Aaron Boone said to Cole Harvey following last night’s game. “Obviously it’s going to take a little more time now, but a little comfort in knowing this is what it is. It appears to be treatable. Just got to take some time and hopefully we’ll get a healthy, strong, and fresh Sevy back for a good portion of the season.”

The Yankees are getting CC Sabathia back this weekend, which will help. He’s not the workhorse he was in his prime, but the guy he’s replacing (Jonathan Loaisiga) has thrown seven innings in two starts, and that couldn’t continue. Domingo German will remain in the rotation for the time being and hopefully J.A. Happ turns things around soon. Clearly, the Yankees are missing Severino.

Given Severino’s injury, it’s only natural to wonder whether the Yankees will (or should) pursue the still unsigned Dallas Keuchel. He is the best (only, really) available starter on the free agent market and, when you lose an important player to injury, signing the best free agent is an easy solution. At least among fans. Teams tend to think a little differently. Let’s talk out the Yankees and Keuchel, shall we?

1. When will he even be ready? A good question. Ken Rosenthal says Keuchel is throwing 95-pitch simulated games every five days as he waits to sign, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s MLB ready. Gio Gonzalez was throwing on his own this spring, yet when he took the mound with the Yankees last month (and Triple-A Scranton last week), he was not sharp at all. Keuchel’s pitch count is built up. Being game ready is another matter.

It seems the best case scenario here is Keuchel joining the rotation after two minor league tune-up starts*. One to get out there and face hitters in a competitive environment, and another to fine tune things and fix whatever didn’t feel right the first time out. I guess that means Keuchel could join the Yankees at the end of the month? That’s pretty good. You don’t get him right away but you do get him soon enough and for most of the season.

* Keuchel has a minor league option remaining and can be sent down easily. Players at his service time level can reject a minor league assignment and usually do, but in this case he’d be signing with the knowledge that he needs some minor league starts to get up to speed. This is exactly what the Orioles and Alex Cobb did last year. He was optioned down after signing to make tune-up starts.

That all said, I’m only guesstimating with two tune-up starts. It could be one, it could be two, it could be four. Who knows? At this point whichever team signs Keuchel will sign him with the understanding he won’t jump into their rotation immediately. The goal is having him for most of the season. The more the better, but if he needs three tune-up starts instead of two, so be it. Eventually Keuchel will be game ready. Maybe sooner, maybe later.

2. How effective will Keuchel be going forward? Keuchel is now four years removed from his Cy Young season and, in three seasons and 518.1 innings since, he has a 3.77 ERA (106 ERA+) and a 3.78 FIP. Last year he had a 3.74 ERA (108 ERA+) and a 3.69 FIP in 204.2 innings. That’s good. It’s not great, but it’s good. At age 31, it seems Keuchel’s very best years are behind him, and he’s now more of a solid innings eater type than a true dominator.

The worry here is that several underlying numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Most notably, Keuchel’s ground ball rate dropped 13 percentage points last year, his chase rate dropped four percentage points, and his zone rate increased seven percentage points. At his peak, Keuchel got hitters to expand the zone and make weak contact. They didn’t expand as much last year, so he had to come in the zone more often, and the result was harder contact.

There seems to be the prevailing thought that command pitchers age better, which is one of those things that sounds like true, but do we have any evidence is it true? Guys like Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Mike Mussina were Hall of Fame talents and we shouldn’t expect anyone to age like them. Andy Pettitte? He threw harder as a 41-year-old in 2013 (89.8 mph average fastball) than Keuchel did as a 30-year-old in 2018 (89.5 mph).

A once elite ground ball/good strikeout pitcher losing both ground balls and strikeouts is a red flag, especially since Keuchel’s stuff doesn’t give him much margin for error. He’s a five-pitch guy and wily, and he’s proven himself in big games, but at age 31 he pitches like a 36-year-old after he loses his stuff. The fact Keuchel remains unsigned leads me to believe at least a few teams are worried about his effectiveness long-term. There’s definite value in being a 180-inning league average starter. That might only be the ceiling here going forward though.

3. So what’s it going to cost? Beats me. This past weekend Ken Rosenthal reported Keuchel wants a one-year deal north of the $17.9M qualifying offer he rejected in November, or a multi-year deal at a lower annual salary. The problem is Rosenthal cited an executive “under the impression” those are Keuchel’s demands, which doesn’t sound too reliable. Clearly, Keuchel wants more than whatever teams are offering right now.

Two things to keep in mind here. One, the Yankees are already over the $226M second luxury tax tier. Cot’s has their luxury tax payroll at $226.7M right now. As a first time offender, their second tier luxury tax rate is 32%. Effectively, every $1 the Yankees give Keuchel will cost them $1.32 due to the luxury tax. It’s real money and it adds up quick. I couldn’t possibly care less about the Steinbrenners having to pay more to field a good team. They sure care though.

And two, Keuchel is attached to draft pick compensation, which is a cost that has to be considered. Because they neither paid luxury tax nor received revenue sharing last year, the Yankees have to surrender their second highest 2019 draft pick and $500,000 in 2019-20 international bonus money to sign a qualified free agent. Their second highest pick right now is the Competitive Balance Pick they received in the Sonny Gray trade. The 37th overall pick.

Giving up your second round pick when it’ll be the 60-something overall selection to sign a qualified free agent is no big deal. Do that every day of the week when you’re a win-now team. Giving up the 37th overall pick and roughly $2M in bonus pool money? Eh, that’s a tougher pill to swallow. The Yankees could wait until after the draft in June to sign Keuchel and keep the pick. The downside is he could sign elsewhere, and you’re not getting him until midseason and missing out on a bunch of starts between now and then.

I am generally a win-now guy, so if the Yankees believe Keuchel can be effective and will increase their chances of winning the AL East and the World Series, go for it. Give up the pick. The larger question is the contract. Does he take a one-year deal or does he insist on a multi-year contract? I’d be all for a one-year contract. Giving Keuchel multiple years doesn’t excite me at all though. There’s way more downside than upside at this point of his career.

* * *

Keuchel is the only viable starting pitcher sitting in free agency and I have no doubt he and agent Scott Boras are waiting for a contending team to suffer an injury and become desperate. That is pretty much where the Yankees are with Severino. He has a new injury and is at least two months away from returning. That’s bad news. Even with Sabathia coming back this weekend, one more rotation injury would leave the Yankees scrambling.

The Yankees had no interest in Keuchel over the winter — they were not connected him to him once, which was unusual because they’re usually connected to everyone — which I guess makes sense. They like their high spin bat-missers and that definitely does not describe Keuchel. Beggars can’t be choosers though, and right now Keuchel is easily the best freely available starting pitcher. Spend some cash (and give up a draft pick) and he’s yours, just like that.

My guess is the Yankees will stick with Domingo German for the time being, and see how Gio Gonzalez looks before his April 20th opt-out. He was excellent last night and there’s enough time for Gonzalez to make two more Triple-A starts before the opt-out date. These days the Yankees are all about finding internal solutions first, and if those don’t work, only then do they go outside the organization. I have no reason to believe that’ll change even with Severino’s new injury and Keuchel sitting out there.

How the Yankees can mitigate the absences of Luis Severino and CC Sabathia

March 18, 2019 by Derek Albin

The regular season has yet to begin, but the Yankees’ season is already off to an auspicious start. Without ace Luis Severino until May (at the earliest) and back of the rotation stalwart CC Sabathia until some point in April, the Yankees will have to begin the season with a depleted pitching staff. Opportunities for Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga have opened up thanks to these injuries. That’s not ideal, even if you’re a fan of German or Loaisiga (apologies to Cessa, but I don’t know many fans of him).

Injuries happen, especially to pitchers, so it’s not a surprise that the Yankees are in this situation. It’s just unfortunate that they’re already in this predicament. Even when Severino and Sabathia return, someone is going to miss start(s) later on in the year. For now though, the team can only address the short-term issue and be optimistic about a rotation at full-strength by early May. There are a few things that could help the team wade through the absences of Severino and Sabathia.

Skipping starts when possible

There are five off-days through the end of April, which would allow the team to use a fifth starter (or opener) only four times in the first 29 games of the year. In the scenario diagrammed above, opening day starter Masahiro Tanaka would start seven times through April 30th, allowing him an average of just under five days of rest. Even though he has a reputation of being better with extra time off, his career ERA is better on four days of rest than five. Starters two through four would average 5.67 days of rest and pitch six times a piece. Skipping starts frequently can be taxing on a rotation, but because there are so many off days to begin the year, it doesn’t look terribly strenuous.

The benefit of skipping the fifth starter as much as possible is obvious: it results in fewer starts by an inferior pitcher. We already know that the fourth starter isn’t going to be anyone the Yankees originally planned for, so that’s a step down already. You know what that means about the fifth guy. All that said about skipping starts, there’s a saying about best laid plans. Weather could throw a wrench in this approach pretty quickly. Or on the bright side, maybe Cessa provides a shot in the arm!

Using an opener

Mike wrote about why this makes sense already, even if it makes you queasy. No need for me to regurgitate what he wrote as I’m basically in agreement. Rather, here’s the simple question to ask yourself: do you want Cessa or German facing the top of the order? Or would you rather bring them in when the sixth or seventh hitter comes due?

A light early season schedule

The good news is that there are some bad teams on the slate for the first month of the season. 16 of the season’s first 29 games will be against the Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, and Royals. All but three of those games will be at home. Not having Severino or Sabathia against those teams shouldn’t make a big difference as there isn’t much of an excuse to lose to them. Obviously, things happen and they’ll inevitably drop a few against those teams, but the point stands.

The other 13 affairs aren’t a cakewalk, particularly the Astros and Red Sox. There’s a west coast trip at the end of the month, which is always challenging even though there are two presumably non-contending teams they’ll face: the Diamondbacks and Giants. By that time, perhaps they’ll have Sabathia back, which would be a nice boost to close the month.

Signing a free agent

It doesn’t sound like the Yankees are planning to go the external route, but until Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel sign elsewhere, it can’t be ruled out. Based on what we know about the prognosis for Severino and Sabathia along with the light schedule and off days, I can understand why the Yankees don’t feel pressed for external help. Still, setbacks happen. There’s only so long they can bide their time without outside assistance unless the young arms step up.

One reason that being proactive for a free agent makes sense is because of a potential setback for Severino or Sabathia. What if, in a few weeks, we hear that either of the two need more time on the shelf, but neither Keuchel or Gonzalez are available? The Yankees would really be in a bind then. Sure, it would be a issue if everyone came back healthy on schedule with one of Keuchel or Gonzalez in tow, but that’s a good problem to have. These things sort themselves out. Like I said, someone else is bound to miss some time down the road, anyway. It’s not like a six-man rotation would be unheard of, too.

The Obligatory Gio Gonzalez Post

March 10, 2019 by Matt Imbrogno

Last week, I wrote the first nice thing I think I’ve ever written about Luis Cessa, which was predicated on him being a reliever, not a starter. A day later, Luis Severino had to stop warming up for a game because of right shoulder inflammation. Later on in the week, the Yankees announced that both Severino and CC Sabathia would be starting the year on the Injured List and all of a sudden, Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga are staring down an opportunity to make the Major League rotation to start the year, rather than the bullpen. As this will shallow the Yankees’ depth, it may make sense to search outside the organization for help; that brings us to Gio Gonzalez.

I’m going with Gonzalez rather than, say, Dallas Keuchel because last week, Gonzalez was linked to the Yankees, not Keuchel. I’ll also say, in the spirit of disclosure, that I’ve always liked Gonzalez as a pitcher. Why? I have no idea; he’s just a guy I’ve always been a fan of. This bias of sorts leads me to think that he’d probably be better than one of the Yankees’ depth options, mostly on experience alone, but let’s see if it’d be worth that.

Depending on where you look, Gonzalez either had a decent year last year (2.0 fWAR, 2.2 WARP) or a pretty bad year (0.7 bWAR) in 171 innings between the Nationals and the Brewers. The numbers behind all that? A 4.21 ERA; a 4.42 RA; a 4.16 FIP; and a 4.17 DRA. His walk rate was 10.7, the first time he’d gone that high since 2011. His strikeout rate was 19.8, his first time ever under 20%. His home run rate, dropped to 10.4 HR/FB%, trending right after two years at 11.1 (2017) and 12.5 (2016). His groundball rate was 45.3%, his lowest since 2014, continuing a downward trend. His fastball velocity has also waned since 2016, something to be expected of a player who’ll turn 34 in September. But, in a fashion that might fit the Yankees, he features something else other than a straight fastball by throwing a sinker. He’s also upped his changeup usage by about 5% from 2017 and about 8% from 2016.

None of those trends really scream out ‘sign me,’ do they? I’ll answer my own question and say they do not, but there are some positives. His groundball rate is still passable, especially when we look more closely at the pitch data from 2018. His sinker, changeup, and curveball all got over 50% GB/BIP, which is great. His four seamer dragged it down at 25% GB/BIP. If Gonzalez focuses less and less on his fastball and more on his sinker, changeup, and curve, he can maybe return to a more prominent position with grounders. Additionally, his change and curve have better whiff/swing rates that his fastball does, which could lead to another uptick in strikeouts.

Basically, the entire idea of Gonzalez comes down to those ifs. Are those ifs worth the risk? Maybe? Gonzalez is a veteran pitcher who comes with a track record. He’s likely to be better–even with his warts–than Cessa and probably German, but Loaisiga’s upside is hard to ignore; however, his health is such a question mark that Gonzalez may be the better play to start. Again, it comes down to another if.

If Gonzalez is okay with a one-year deal, sign him. There’s minimal risk and there are still the minor league options to back him up. If he wants a multi-year deal, I think it’s easy to pass.

The Yanks might see a different Dallas Keuchel in Game Five

October 18, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Once again, the Yankees have battled back from down 2-0 in a postseason series to knot things up 2-2. They did it against the Indians in the ALDS and now they’ve done it against the Astros in the ALCS. Their reward: Dallas Keuchel in Game Five and Justin Verlander in Game Six. That’s no fun. Then again, no one thought facing Corey Kluber in Game Five of the ALDS would be fun, and we know how that went.

Keuchel, as you know, shut the Yankees down in his team’s Game One win. Seven scoreless innings, four hits, one run, ten strikeouts. He was dominant. And he’s been dominant against the Yankees pretty much his entire career. The players change but Keuchel’s dominance against the laundry has remained the same.

In theory, seeing Keuchel for the second time in the span of a week should help. The Yankees are more familiar with him now, right? Ben Lindbergh’s research suggests otherwise. During the wildcard era, pitchers who made two starts in a single postseason series showed no significant change in performance in the second start, as long as they were on normal rest, like Keuchel will be in Game Five.

Keep in mind that is a big picture look at things. That’s the average of 211 pitchers making multiple starts in one postseason series. In one individual game, anything can happen. The Yankees could benefit from seeing Keuchel for the second time in the series even though the research suggests it doesn’t really matter. And this works both ways. The Astros could benefit from seeing Masahiro Tanaka for the second time in Game Five too.

When Keuchel dominated the Yankees in Game One, he did it primarily with his sinker and slider. He threw 109 total pitches in the game and 57 were sinkers. Another 28 were sliders. That’s 52.8% sinkers and 25.8% sliders. His regular season averages: 50.8% sinkers and 18.7% sliders. Furthermore, Keuchel threw one (1) changeup in Game One. That’s all. He said Tuesday the pitch wasn’t working, so he had to lean on his slider instead.

“It mainly was a feel. I’m usually throwing 10-15, maybe 20% percent changeups, especially to this group being such good fastball hitters” said Keuchel yesterday when asked about not using his changeup in Game One. “And it was just the fact that I had some really late movement on my two-seam and my slider was really good, the cutter was decent. So I didn’t feel the need to change speeds with the changeup.”

That is sorta scary! Keuchel pitched so well in Game One despite not using his changeup, which is widely regarded as his best secondary pitch. He didn’t have a feel for the pitch, so he had to lean on the slider — and also the cutter, which he threw 19 times, way more than usual — and he still pitched effectively. Chances are Keuchel won’t eschew his changeup in Game Five. At least not if it’s working.

“Hopefully that comes into play tomorrow where they only saw one changeup,” added Keuchel.” It might come in handy … The changeup usually is the second to third best pitch. And for me to not use it hopefully will come into play for me tomorrow.”

On one hand, this sounds bad. Keuchel pitched well last time out and he did it without his best secondary pitch, and now he figures to break it out in Game Five. On the other hand, Keuchel has thrown only one changeup in the past 12 days. Including his ALDS start against the Red Sox, he’s thrown only seven changeups in the last 23 days. The changeup is a feel pitch, and if you don’t throw it much, it can be easy to lose that feel.

Even though the fastball-slider approach worked in Game One, my hunch is Keuchel will look to use his changeup more often in Game Five today, as long as the pitch is behaving properly. That means a new look for the Yankees, who didn’t see the pitch in Game One. With any luck, Keuchel will hang a few of those changeups and the Yankees will take advantage, or he’s miss out of the zone and put them in favorable counts. That’s where a potential lack of feel can come into play.

Either way, changeup or no changeup, I feel the key to beating Keuchel remains the same: wait him out. Houston’s middle relief is sketchy as hell right now — even Ken Giles, as good as he is, has allowed a run in all four postseason appearances so far — and the more bullpen the Yankees see, the better their chances of winning. Keuchel is awfully tough and he can frustrate opposing hitters and fans alike. The sooner the Yankees get him out of the game, the better.

Scouting Game One of the ALCS: Dallas Keuchel

October 13, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

In just a few hours the Yankees will open their ALCS matchup with the Astros at Minute Maid Park in Houston. The Yankees completed a pretty incredible comeback from down 0-2 in the ALDS to beat the Indians, the AL’s best team during the regular season. Now they’ll have to beat the AL’s second best team in the ALCS.

Against the Red Sox in the ALDS, the Astros started Justin Verlander in Game One and Dallas Keuchel in Game Two. Now, in the ALCS, Keuchel is starting Game One and Verlander is starting Game Two. That’s because Verlander threw 2.2 innings in relief in Game Four of the ALDS on Monday. First career relief appearance for him. He never even pitched out of the bullpen in college or the minors. Huh.

Verlander’s relief appearance means Keuchel starts Game One tonight, and Keuchel is something of a Yankees nemesis despite not playing in the same division. He beat the Yankees in the 2015 Wild Card Game, as you know, though he’s also had his way with them in the regular season. For his career, Keuchel has a 1.41 ERA (1.59 FIP) in six regular season starts against the Yankees, plus he threw six shutout innings on short rest in the 2015 Wild Card Game.

During the regular season the 29-year-old Keuchel threw 145.2 innings with a 2.90 ERA (3.79 FIP) in 23 starts. He also missed time with a neck injury. Among the 90 pitchers who threw at least 140 innings in 2017, his 66.8% ground ball rate was easily the highest (Marcus Stroman was second at 62.1%). Keuchel’s strikeout (21.4%) and walk (8.1%) rates were basically league average. Let’s break down Houston’s co-ace.

History Against The Yankees

Like I said, Keuchel has dominated the Yankees historically, but so did Corey Kluber and look how that turned out in the ALDS. I suspect we’re going to hear a lot about that 2015 Wild Card Game during the broadcast tonight, but keep in mind this is a different Yankees team. The only Yankees who were in the 2015 Wild Card Game starting lineup and are still with the team are Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird, and Chase Headley. And Headley’s not in the lineup tonight.

Overall, players on New York’s roster have hit .184/.215/.282 in 108 total plate appearances against Keuchel in his career, which dates back to the time before he emerged as an ace. I’m not sure why that history would be relevant now. Keuchel’s a different pitcher. Here are the numbers against Keuchel the last three years:

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Headley	18	18	3	0	0	1	0	8	.167	.167	.167	.333
Jacoby Ellsbury	13	12	1	0	0	1	0	2	.083	.083	.083	.167
Didi Gregorius	12	12	3	1	0	0	0	4	.250	.250	.333	.583
Aaron Hicks	12	10	1	0	1	1	2	3	.100	.250	.400	.650
Starlin Castro	9	9	2	1	0	2	0	5	.222	.222	.333	.556
Greg Bird	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667
Brett Gardner	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000
Matt Holliday	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667
Aaron Judge	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Austin Romine	3	3	2	1	0	1	0	0	.667	.667	1.000	1.667
Gary Sanchez	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Total	82	79	14	3	1	6	2	29	.177	.198	.253	.451

Not gonna lie, when I looked up these numbers earlier today, I got worried we’d see Romine behind the plate tonight thanks to that 2-for-3 with a double line against Keuchel. Fortunately, that is not the case. That 2-for-3 with a double happened in a game last season, by the way.

Anyway, the head-to-head history still isn’t very good, though most players in that table only have three career plate appearances against Keuchel, so it’s not a ton of history. Neither Headley nor Ellsbury, who have combined for 31 of those 82 plate appearances against Keuchel, is in the lineup tonight. Noticeably absent from that table is Todd Frazier. He’s never faced Keuchel in his career.

In Game Two of the ALDS the Red Sox scored one run in 5.2 innings against Keuchel, forcing him to throw 96 pitches. The Red Sox don’t have a great offense though. The Yankees hit for considerably more power and are better at working the count and prolonging at-bats. That doesn’t automatically mean they’ll have more success against Keuchel, of course.

Current Stuff

Keuchel is a throwback. The Yankees just saw an Indians pitching staff loaded with power arms and wicked breaking balls. Keuchel is a finesse southpaw with a sinker that sits right around 90 mph. That’s the pitch that gave him the league’s best ground ball rate in 2017. Keuchel, similar to CC Sabathia, will bust righties inside with a cutter and get them to chase away with a changeup. He also has a good slider. Keuchel doesn’t bring a lot of velocity to the table, but he knows how to pitch. He’ll pitch inside and keep everything down.

Here is Keuchel’s regular season pitch selection, via Brooks Baseball:

Lefties get the slider, righties get the cutter and changeup. Pretty standard. Keuchel is quite similar to the current version of Sabathia, though his sinker is top notch and his cutter has more cutting action. Their style is similar though.

Here is every pitch Keuchel threw against the Athletics on April 30th of this season, when he allowed one run in 7.2 innings. The dead center field camera angle provides a great look at the movement on his pitches.

Everything Keuchel throws has some movement and that makes him awfully tough to square up. Among those 90 pitchers who threw at least 140 innings in 2017, Keuchel had the highest soft contact rate (25.4%) and the lowest hard contact rate (24.7%), and by quite a bit too. Kluber had the second highest soft contact rate at 24.4% while Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery (!) tied for the second lowest hard contact rate at 26.5%.

Keuchel is going to frustrate the hell out of hitters and also fans, who will see less than premium velocity and pitches that look hittable result in soft contact. The subtle movement keeps Keuchel away from the sweet spot though. That’s how he succeeds. If he throws something that starts belt high, it’ll finish down around the knees. If he throws something that starts at the knees, take it, because it’ll probably drop out of the zone.

Platoon Splits

Despite the lack of overpowering stuff, Keuchel has absolutely crushed lefties the last three seasons. He’s quite good against righties too, but against lefties, he’s incredibly dominant. Here are the 2015-17 platoon splits:

vs. RHB: .241/.300/.375 (.295 wOBA) with 21.2 K%, 7.4 BB%, 59.9 GB%
vs. LHB: .186/.221/.279 (.219 wOBA) with 25.6K%, 3.7 BB%, 67.4 GB%

Gardner, Gregorius, and Bird are the only lefties in tonight’s lineup, and they’re three guys who are going to play every game from here on out no matter what. Anything can happen in one individual game, but yeah, the righties are probably going to have to carry the offense against Keuchel tonight.

Can The Yankees Run On Him?

You know what? No. Shockingly. As I mentioned this morning, the Astros were by far the worst team in baseball at throwing out basestealers during the regular season. Keuchel, thanks in part to being left-handed, has an excellent pickoff move, however. Runners went 3-for-5 stealing bases against him in the regular season. That’s all. Over the last four seasons they’re 11-for-18. His pickoff move makes up for the terrible arms behind the plate.

Also, it’s worth noting Keuchel is the best fielding pitcher in baseball, which helps when you’re such an extreme ground ball pitcher. Bunting on him probably won’t work, at least not if you’re trying to bunt for a hit. Gardner unsuccessful tried to bunt for a hit on the first pitch of ALDS Game Five, though I don’t see that happening again against any pitcher, let along the best fielding pitcher in the game.

* * *

Because the Astros appear to have some middle relief issues, working the count and driving up the starter’s pitch count could have a huge impact on this series. I mean, that’s always a good strategy, but in the ALDS you knew Andrew Miller was going to be the first guy out of the bullpen, and that’s no fun. Chris Devenski faded down the stretch, so the Astros don’t have a Miller. The best plan of attack against Keuchel figures to be grinding out at-bats, waiting him out, then getting to the bullpen.

Yankees-Astros has the makings of a budding rivalry

May 12, 2017 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

Teetering near mediocrity for 3-4 seasons has left the Yankees with few true rivals. But there may be a budding rivalry in the opposing dugout this weekend.

Since the Yankees last played a multi-game playoff series in 2012, the team has hovered near .500 and played fewer truly intense games. The exception would be in-division. The games against the Blue Jays the last two seasons have had fans on the edge of their seats, particularly after the Jays made moves at the 2015 trade deadline. The Orioles’ emergence since 2012 has led to a few interesting regular season series. The classic Yankees-Red Sox rivalry still exists, but I doubt anyone would consider it near its peak. David Ortiz’s retirement really drives that home.

The Bombers have had rivals outside the division in the past, particularly during the 1996-2012 period of constant contending for titles. The Mariners at the turn of the century. The Indians before them. The Angels and Tigers each beat the Yankees in the playoffs multiple times and it created a bit more importance for those series, particularly the Angels games. Anaheim was always the team that had the Yankees’ number in their 15 years of contention and it was brought to the surface in three playoff series over an eight-year span.

Ultimately, that’s probably the best way to create a rivalry: Close playoff series. If two teams play multiple tense series in a short time span, it can lead to regular season series that mirror the same character of a postseason series.

In that regard, the Astros and Yankees already have step one out of the way. The two players who hit home runs for the Astros in that 2015 Wild Card Game have moved on from Houston, but we still have both starting pitchers: Dallas Keuchel and Masahiro Tanaka.

And I think that a potential rivalry can pivot on the abilities of Keuchel. His tormented the Yankees in 2015, both in the regular season and one postseason game. The Yankees kinda sorta maybe got to him in his two starts last year and then he looked like Cy Young for four innings on Thursday before grinding out the fifth and sixth innings. It seemed that to be a fait accompli that Keuchel would wiggle out of his self-made jams and get a lead to the Astros’ bullpen. Just like how the early 2000s Yankees-Red Sox rivalry rose to new heights with Pedro Martinez on the mound, Keuchel can take that role on. He’s imperfect with less intensity and flare on the mound, but he gives the Yankees a nemesis, a hurdle either in a regular season series or in the postseason. With that, perhaps he’s more similar to 2009-10 Cliff Lee than 1999-2004 Pedro, but still, a tough challenge.

Beyond one key starting pitcher, a rivalry also can be aided by similarly built teams going to battle and we certainly have that with Astros-Yankees. A lot of young, exciting position players poised to man the middle of the lineup for the next decade? Check. Bullpens full of flame throwers? You got it. They both have questions in their rotation and have been linked to Jose Quintana this last offseason. With the young talent on these teams, it’s not hard to see ESPN, Fox or TBS market a series centered around Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve vs. Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge. They’re not limited in that regard as the teams seem to match each other budding star for budding star.

With their similar constructions also comes a similar timeline for success in this case: Both teams are rising to the top of the American League at the same time. Many in baseball foresaw the Astros’ success this year, perhaps as far as three years in advance. (Thanks Sports Illustrated!) Even though the Yankees came out of nowhere for some, they seem to be a team on the cusp of contention with their strongest days ahead of them.

This weekend’s series with the Astros may be getting overshadowed by the sweep of the Cubs and the upcoming festivities for Derek Jeter, yet it’s still an important series. Important at least for mid-May. Houston is a useful measuring stick for the Yankees, bringing a team just as hot as them into Yankee Stadium for four games. Come out with three wins and you gain a lot of respect. Lose three of four or get swept and it will be much easier nationally to dismiss the Yankees as a flash in the pan, a team not quite there.

Without 1-2 more playoff series between the two franchises, it will be hard to create a real rivalry. Close games like Thursday night can nudge it that way and so could a brawl, although the latter isn’t something for which to rot. A larger impediment is that they’re limited to 6-7 regular season games a year spread out over two series, not the 19 games the Yankees play against the Red Sox. But as far as rivalries go outside the AL East, the Astros are the best bet for one over the next half decade.

Swinging early in the count may be Yankees’ best chance against Dallas Keuchel

October 6, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

Later tonight the Yankees will face Dallas Keuchel in the winner-take-all wildcard game. If I had to hand-pick any pitcher in the big leagues to face the Yankees in an elimination game, I’m pretty sure I’d pick Keuchel. He’s the embodiment of everything the Yankees seem unable to solve, and by that I mean he’s a left-handed finesse guy with a changeup and command. If he were a rookie too, forget it. Game over.

Anyway, the postseason is not easy, and if you’re going to win the World Series, you have to beat pitchers like Keuchel. He’s a legitimate Cy Young candidate, and while he will be working on three days’ rest of the first time in his career tonight, I’m not sure fatigue will be a huge issue. Keuchel will have plenty of adrenaline pumping in his first career postseason start. Solving Keuchel is no easy task. Few teams have done it this year. Here’s a look at how the Yankees may be able to do it.

Head-to-Head Stats

This seems like a convenient place to start. I absolutely believe certain hitters can “own” certain pitchers and vice versa, but head-to-head stats don’t help us identify those matchups well. We’re usually talking about only a handful of at-bats spread across several years. That said, Joe Girardi relies on head-to-head data all the time, and I’m sure it’ll factor into his lineup decision. Here are the numbers, via Baseball Reference:

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chris Young	21	20	6	2	1	0	2	1	2	.300	.333	.500	.833
Chase Headley	13	13	3	1	0	1	3	0	6	.231	.231	.538	.769
Carlos Beltran	10	9	4	1	0	1	2	1	1	.444	.500	.889	1.389
Jacoby Ellsbury	8	7	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	.286	.375	.286	.661
Dustin Ackley	7	7	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	.000	.000	.000	.000
Alex Rodriguez	7	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	.143	.143	.143	.286
Brendan Ryan	6	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
John Ryan Murphy	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	.400	.400	.400	.800
Stephen Drew	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
Brett Gardner	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Didi Gregorius	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Gregory Bird	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Total	92	89	18	4	1	2	8	3	25	.202	.228	.337	.565

This is Keuchel’s third full season in the big leagues and only his second as a full-time starter, so it’s no surprise the head-to-head plate appearances are limited. He’s not even in the same division. Keuchel totally dominated the Yankees in two starts this season (16 shutout innings with 21 strikeouts), so it’s no surprise the head-to-head numbers aren’t good. How much does this tell us going into tonight? Not much really. Keuchel is very good. We knew that already.

The Stuff

Keuchel is not a power pitcher. His fastest pitch of the season was 94.9 mph back in May. He hasn’t throw a pitch over 92.0 mph since August, so says PitchFX. Keuchel is a four-pitch pitcher with a sinker right around 90 mph, a cutter in the upper-80s, and both a slider and changeup right around 80 mph. He’ll occasionally throw an upper-80s/low-90s four-seamer as a get me over pitch. Words don’t do much, so here’s some video of Keuchel in action this season.

As you can see, he locates just about everything to both of the plate, and everything seems to break late. I have no idea how to quantify this, but my guess is all of Keuchel’s pitches look the same out of his hand. He must be real tough to pick up.

Like most pitchers, Keuchel attacks early in the count with his fastball (sinker, in his case) then goes to town with his offspeed stuff. The changeup is for righties but he will throw the slider to both righties and lefties. Here’s his pitch usage breakdown by handedness, via Brooks Baseball:

I know we’re all used to the “take pitches, work the count, get the pitch count up” approach and it is pretty successful, by and large. The Yankees tried it against Keuchel in his two starts this season, at least early in the game, but it didn’t work. He fills the strike zone then goes to his offspeed stuff when ahead in the count.

Considering the data shows Keuchel throws a lot of first pitch sinkers, I think it might be worth it to forget the whole “work the count” approach and instead look to ambush some sinkers early in the count. Opponents hit .307 with a .119 ISO on the first pitch against Keuchel and .291 with a .148 ISO when putting one of the first two pitches of the at-bat in play. From the third pitch of the at-bat onward, opponents hit .187 with an .077 ISO against Keuchel this year. Big difference!

Of course, the “swing early in the count” approach could very easily backfire, especially if Keuchel has his sinker working. If those early count swings don’t turn into hits, the Yankees are going to look up in the fourth inning and see Keuchel’s pitch count in the 30s or 40s. That would be a problem. The data suggests Keuchel is going to throw his sinker early in the count. If he’s leaving the pitch up in the first inning, it might be time to swing away early in the at-bat.

The Running Game

As a lefty, Keuchel has an inherent advantage when it comes to shutting down the running game. He’s staring at the base-runner at first base the entire time. Opponents attempted only five stolen bases against Keuchel this year — all five were successful! — and only 31 in his 671 career innings. That’s nothing. Teams don’t run on him.

So Keuchel must have a great pickoff move, right? Well, no. In fact, he very rarely throws over to first base. He made five (!) pickoff throws to first base last season and only 19 this season, according to Sporting Charts. That works out to 0.08 pickoff throws per base-runner, or one every 12.5 base-runners. That’s not even one pickoff throw per start.

This seems like something the Yankees might be able to exploit, right? Specifically Jacoby Ellsbury. (I think Brett Gardner’s going to sit in favor of Chris Young tonight, but we’ll see.) Ellsbury attempted only eleven stolen bases after coming off the DL, but three of them came in the last two weeks of the season. He was successful all three times. So at least he started to run a little more late in the year.

Ellsbury’s quick and usually an aggressive base-runner, and Keuchel is not going to throw over to first base all that often. Considering opponents never run on him, I’m guessing Keuchel varies his times well and has a quick slide step, but Ellsbury can generally outrun that stuff. He’s an elite base-runner when healthy. Pushing the envelope on the bases, even with something as simple as taking a bigger than usual lead, could be in the cards. That assumes Ellsbury actually gets on base against Keuchel, who dominates lefties.

Fatigue?

Keuchel is starting on three days’ rest for the first time … as a big leaguer. He did it in college when Arkansas went to the 2009 College World Series. Doing it in the big leagues is different than doing it in college, sure, but it’s not a completely new experience to him either. The Astros wouldn’t throw him out there if they didn’t believe he was up for it.

“I can’t really tell you maybe (the adrenaline is) going to help me throw 91 instead of 90. I don’t know,” said Keuchel to reporters yesterday. “It’s a big game. So I’m sure I’ll be up for it no matter what. But at this point in time, the routine is there. I feel comfortable going in. I feel great. There’s no end-of-the-season fatigue, I feel like. So I’m excited.”

How will we be able to tell whether Keuchel is fatigued? Boy, I have no idea. Wildness and reduced velocity would be one way, but that’s about it as far as the eye test goes. We could look at the PitchFX data and compare release points and movement and things like that, but that doesn’t help in real time. The hitters will tell us if Keuchel is fatigued. Are they taking comfortable swings? That’ll be the best indication.

In a winner-take-all game, I can’t imagine Astros skipper A.J. Hinch will leave Keuchel out there long if he thinks he is fatigued and unable to compete at a high level. The Yankees should just forget about the short rest thing as far as I’m concerned. Assume Keuchel is at 100% and won’t lose anything as his pitch count climbs. This is no game to get caught waiting around.

* * *

There’s no denying Keuchel is a tremendous pitcher. He’s a bonafide ace with unconventional methods. Keuchel dominates by keeping the ball on the ground, not by missing bats or blowing the ball by hitter. He has struggled on the road this season — struggled is a relative term, Keuchel had 1.46 ERA (2.04 FIP) at home and a 3.77 ERA (4.01 FIP) on the road in 2015 — and he will be working on short rest, which may or may not come into play.

The Yankees have seen Keuchel twice this year, and while he dominated them both times, getting two looks at him has value. They’ve seen him up close. There’s no mystery. (Or at least there’s less of a mystery.) It appears hunting sinkers early in the count may lead to positive results, and if Ellsbury gets on base he should take an exaggerated lead given Keuchel’s lack of pickoff throws. Other than that, hope Keuchel has an off night. He’s tough.