Colorado Rockies Archives - River Avenue Blues

Yankees acquire outfielder Mike Tauchman from Rockies for lefty Phil Diehl

March 23, 2019 by Mike

Gonna need a new number, Mike. (Presswire)

The Yankees have acquired left-handed hitting outfielder Mike Tauchman from the Rockies for lefty relief prospect Phil Diehl, the team announced. Jordan Montgomery was placed on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot. Tauchman has a minor league option remaining for 2019.

“We’re excited to get a guy that we feel is pretty talented and can play multiple positions in the outfield. He has options, so we’ll determine which way we’ll go,” said Aaron Boone to Bryan Hoch, indicating Tauchman may crack the Opening Day roster. Could be bad news for Greg Bird or Tyler Wade.

Tauchman, 28, was a tenth round pick in 2013. He’s a career .153/.265/.203 (17 wRC+) hitter in limited MLB time, and last year he authored a .323/.408/.571 (153 wRC+) line with 20 homers and nearly as many walks (12.7%) as strikeouts (14.9%) in 112 Triple-A games. As Alex Chamberlain wrote recently, last year Tauchman had one of the minors’ best power-contact seasons within the last few years.

Diehl, 24, was the Yankees’ 27th round pick in 2016. He had a breakout season last year, throwing 75.1 relief innings with a 2.51 ERA (2.24 FIP) and 36.2% strikeouts for High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. I did not rank Diehl among my top 30 prospects. No major scouting publication did either. Boone mentioned Diehl as a young pitcher who impressed him throughout Spring Training.

The Yankees are loaded with pitching in the farm system right now and they’re short on upper level outfielders, so they used a surplus to address a weakness. Also, with the three-batter minimum rule and 28-man September roster limit set to take effect next year, a potential left-on-left matchup guy like Diehl could have a tough time cracking the roster. His usefulness could be a bit limited.

Looking for under-the-radar relief pitchers the Yankees could target this offseason

December 20, 2018 by Mike

With the rotation now in order, the Yankees have shifted their focus to the bullpen. The bullpen and a Didi Gregorius replacement. The Yankees say they want two relievers and that makes sense given the current roster. There are four open bullpen spots at the moment, and although the Yankees have no shortage of in-house candidates for those spots, it’s obvious an upgrade is in order.

It has become clear in recent years the Yankees have a “type” when it comes to relievers. They prefer relievers who miss bats, first and foremost. New York’s bullpen struck out 30.2% of the batters they faced in 2018. That’s a single season record. They broke the record held by … the 2017 Yankees (29.1%). Yankees’ relievers generated a 13.1% swing-and-miss rate this past season, third highest in baseball behind the Astros (14.5%) and Dodgers (14.1%).

The Yankees are also velocity and spin rate enthusiasts. As a team in 2018 they had the highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph), the second highest average fastball spin rate (2,360 rpm), and the third highest average breaking ball spin rate (2,517 rpm). In fact, it seems the Yankees have prioritized spin rate over velocity the last few years. Nine pitchers threw at least 40 relief innings for the Yankees the last two seasons. Here are their average fastball velocity and spin rate numbers, with above-average rates in red:

	2017-18 Innings	FB velo	FB spin	BB spin
Chad Green	142.2	95.7 mph	2,451 rpm	2,206 rpm
Dellin Betances	126.1	98.0 mph	2,395 rpm	2,675 rpm
David Robertson	104.2	91.9 mph	2,555 rpm	2,706 rpm
Jonathan Holder	104.1	91.6 mph	2,347 rpm	2,657 rpm
Aroldis Chapman	101.2	99.4 mph	2,494 rpm	2,444 rpm
Adam Warren	87.1	92.3 mph	2,202 rpm	2,266 rpm
Chasen Shreve	83.1	92.3 mph	2,485 rpm	2,357 rpm
Tommy Kahnle	50	97.0 mph	2,268 rpm	2,448 rpm
Luis Cessa	41	92.3 mph	2,283 rpm	2,468 rpm
MLB AVG for RP		93.4 mph	2,274 rpm	2,434 rpm

Five of those nine relievers posted below-average velocity the last two years. Only two had a below-average fastball spin rate and three had a below-average breaking ball spin rate. Robertson makes up for the lack of velocity with a killer curveball. Holder and Warren are kitchen sink guys with a wide array of secondary pitches. Is it a coincidence Warren and Shreve, the two guys with the fewest red cells in that table, were shipped elsewhere this past season? Maybe not!

Betances is, for all intents and purposes, the perfect Yankees reliever. He pairs comfortably above-average fastball velocity with comfortably above-average spin rates on both his fastball and breaking ball. And he misses a ton of bats. A ton. Chapman has three red cells in that table but his breaking ball spin rate is fairly close to average. Betances is well-above-average across the board. It’s not a coincidence he is so wildly successful when he throws strikes.

Clearly, the Yankees have a “type” when it comes to relievers. They want bat-missers who can really spin the ball. The more velocity, the better, but above-average velocity is not required. Knowing that, I decided to see whether we could use that information to dig up some under-the-radar bullpen targets. So I created a list. Here’s what I did:

Found pitchers who recorded above-average spin rates on their fastball and breaking ball in 2018.
Removed pitchers with a below-average swing-and-miss rate in 2018 (league average is 11.5%).
Removed starters, recently signed free agents, current Yankees, and current Red Sox (since a trade with the Red Sox isn’t happening).
Removed established relievers who, realistically, are not attainable (Kenley Jansen, etc.).

Step One turned up 193 pitchers, which is way more than I expected. Step Two whittled the list down to 139 pitchers. Step Three brought us down to 75 relievers. And finally, Step Four got us down to 68 pitchers. There are several recent former Yankees among those 68 names (Robertson, Parker Bridwell, etc.) which I’m sure is partly coincidence and partly the result of those guys being the Yankees’ type.

Here’s my spreadsheet with those 68 relievers. Among those 68 relievers are stud free agents (Robertson, Adam Ottavino), a bunch of “I know that guy” guys (Bud Norris, Luke Gregerson, Mychal Givens), and a bunch of relievers even hardcore fans may not know. Since we’ve spent a lot of time looking at the big names already this winter, we’re going to rummage through those 68 names to find potential under-the-radar bullpen targets. Here are five who caught me eye.

RHP Dan Altavilla, Mariners

Fastball Velocity: 96.6 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,367 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,786 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.6%

Who is he? Altavilla, 26, was a fifth round pick in 2014 who really broke out when the Mariners moved him into the bullpen full-time in 2016. He’s had cups of coffee with Seattle each of the last three years and owns a 3.28 ERA (4.32 FIP) with a good strikeout rate (25.3%) and a not good walk rate (10.7%) in 79.2 career big league innings. He has ground ball (39.0%) and home run (1.24 HR/9) issues at times. Altavilla is a classic fastball/slider reliever who threw those pitches at close to a 50/50 split this year.

What’s his contract status? With one year and 129 days of service time (1.129), Altavilla comes with five years of team control, though he (likely) will be arbitration for the first of four times as a Super Two next offseason should he spend the entire 2019 season in the big leagues. That’s not a big deal. Arbitration doesn’t pay middle relievers well. Altavilla also has a minor league option remaining, so he can go to Triple-A without a problem next year.

Yay or nay? I think yay. The high walk rate is largely the result of a rough stretch this season in which he walked nine batters in 8.2 innings. He has a more tolerable 9.1% walk rate in his MLB career outside those 8.2 innings. We know the Mariners are selling and I can’t imagine they’d make a 26-year-old middle reliever off-limits in trade talks. There’s a chance at a 30% strikeout rate here.

RHP Daniel Hudson, Free Agent

Fastball Velocity: 95.4 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,439 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,569 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.9%

Who is he? Hudson is pretty well known by now. The soon-to-be 32-year-old made his big league debut back in 2009 and he’s been a full-time reliever since a pair of Tommy John surgeries limited him to 48 innings from 2012-14. Hudson spent last season with the Dodgers — he went from the Pirates to the Rays in the Corey Dickerson trade and Tampa immediately released him — throwing 46 innings with a 4.11 ERA (4.38 FIP) and good enough strikeout (22.3%) and walk (9.1%) rates. Those numbers are more or less in line with his career norms since the two elbow reconstructions. Hudson’s a fastball/slider guy.

What’s his contract status? Hudson’s a free agent and no one ranked him as a top 50 free agent, so we don’t have any contract estimates. Two years ago he signed a two-year, $11M contract with Pittsburgh and they salary dumped him one year later. My hunch is Hudson’s looking at a one-year deal worth $5M or less. It’s worth noting the Yankees requested his medical information earlier this offseason.

Yay nor nay? I’m going to say nay. Hudson has been the same guy these last four years and that was true even after the Dodgers got him to throw far more sliders (40%) than ever this year. A low cost one-year contract is basically no risk. I’m just not sure there’s reason to believe Hudson has another level in his performance at this point of his career.

RHP DJ Johnson, Rockies

Fastball Velocity: 93.5 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,338 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,586 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 16.2%

Who is he? An undrafted free agent out of Western Oregon, the 29-year-old Johnson went from the Rays to the Diamondbacks to an independent league to the Twins to the Angels to the Rockies from 2010-18. He made his MLB debut as a September call-up this past season and struck out nine in 6.1 innings, which was good enough to land him a spot on Colorado’s Wild Card Game and NLDS rosters. Prior to that, Johnson had a 3.90 ERA (2.81 FIP) with 35.7% strikeouts and 6.4% walks in 55.1 Triple-A innings. He’s another fastball/slider reliever.

What’s his contract status? Johnson was added to a 40-man roster for the very first time in September, so he comes with all six years of team control and all three minor league options. That said, he’s a 29-year-old rookie, so chances are he won’t see the end of those six years of control, and if you’re still optioning him down at age 31, he’s probably not worth keeping around.

Yay or nay? I am intrigued enough to say yay but I’ve also been doing this long enough to know most 29-year-old rookies amount to nothing. The Brad Zieglers are few and far between. Maybe the Rockies like one out of the out-of-options guys (Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Tommy Kahnle) enough to do a one-for-one trade and the Yankees could swap an unoptionable pitcher for an optionable pitcher?

RHP Phil Maton, Padres

Fastball Velocity: 91.9 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,563 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,749 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 15.4%

Who is he? Maton, 25, is a former 20th round pick who worked his way up the minor league ladder and has thrown 90.1 big league innings with a 4.28 ERA (4.12 FIP) and good enough strikeout (25.6%) and walk (9.4%) rates the last two years. The grounder (40.3%) and homer (1.30 HR/9) rates are worrisome. Unlike everyone else in this post, Maton is a fastball/curveball pitcher, not a fastball/slider pitcher.

What’s his contract status? Maton is at 1.107 years of service time, so he has five years of control, including two as a pre-arbitration-eligible player. He also has two minor league options remaining.

Yay or nay? I’m a hard yay. Maton doesn’t have overwhelming velocity but he spins the hell out of his fastball and he knows how to pitch up in the zone with it, and that mixes quite well with a hard downer curveball. The walk and grounder rates are not good, but hey, maybe they’ll improve with experience. Only one needs to improve, really. There are a lot of Padres pitchers on my list of 68 pitchers (Maton, Matt Strahm, Miguel Diaz, etc.) so maybe a package of two or three makes sense in a Sonny Gray trade.

RHP Chad Sobotka, Braves

Fastball Velocity: 96.6 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,391 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,802 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.6%

Who is he? The 25-year-old Sobotka was a fourth round pick in 2014 and he reached the big leagues for the first time as an up-and-down arm in the second half this year. He struck out 21 and walked nine in 14.1 innings — that works out to a 36.2% strikeout rate and a 15.5% walk rate — and made the club’s NLDS roster. Sobotka had 2.03 ERA (2.67 FIP) with 33.3% strikeouts and 12.6% walks in 57.2 minor league innings before his call-up. He’s another fastball/slider guy. They are all over the place.

What’s his contract status? Sobotka has less than a year of service time and he didn’t even burn an option this year, so he has six years of control and all three minor league options remaining.

Yay or nay? I lean yay but Sobotka’s career-long control issues are significant — he has an 11.9% walk rate in the minors — and do give me some pause. A potential issue here (and with Johnson, I suppose) is that the Braves are contending and may not want to trade away a hard-throwing, high-strikeout, optionable reliever. Finding a trade match might not be easy.

* * *

There is much more to life than spin rate, of course. Bryan Mitchell could spin the ball like nobody’s business but he couldn’t miss bats. Spin rate is just one tool in the shed, as is swing-and-miss rate and velocity and all sorts of other things. Find the right mix and it can work well. And sometimes you think you have the right mix and it doesn’t work for whatever reason. That’s baseball. Live and learn. The Yankees seem to have the spin thing worked out pretty well.

The point of this exercise is to find pitchers who could be attractive to the Yankees because of the skills they possess, not because of what they’ve done in the past. We’re looking for guys who’ve yet to really establish themselves as above-average big league relievers with the idea that the Yankees could pick them up, maybe tweak some things, then benefit from an uptick in performance. They’re not big name players and that’s the point. To get them before they become big names.

Granted, it is only December 20th, but the deeper we go into the offseason without the Yankees making a bullpen addition, the more I expect them to bring in a surprise reliever. Heck, they could add the two relievers they’re said to want plus a surprise reliever. And, given their recent history and the kind of relievers they’ve rostered, the smart money is on that hypothetical surprise reliever having high spin rates and a history of missing bats.

DotF: Nestor Cortes continues dominant winter ball stint

November 30, 2018 by Mike

The Arizona Fall League season ended two weeks ago but there are still plenty other winter league seasons going on around the globe. Here are some notes before we get to the player updates:

A trade! Late last week the Yankees sent RHP Jordan Foley to the Rockies for RHP Jefry Valdez, the team announced. “(Valdez is) a really loose, wiry 6-foot-1 with a good arm action. He has been 92-94 with an above-average curveball in my looks. I like him as a late-blooming relief candidate,” wrote Eric Longenhagen. Seems like the Yankees traded Foley for a two-years-younger version of Foley. Works for me. Foley is Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason and Colorado didn’t even bother to add him to their 40-man roster before the protection deadline.
The MLB.com crew listed one notable Rule 5 Draft eligible player for all 30 teams. 1B/3B Dermis Garcia got the nod for the Yankees. “(He) has massive raw power. The downside is that he doesn’t have much hittability or athleticism, so New York has begun to explore using him on the mound, where he has shown a mid-90s fastball,” says the write-up. It’s real hard for me to see Dermis sticking in MLB all next season. Hiding him a three-man bench all year won’t be easy.
The Yankees have re-signed minor league free agent RHP Dallas Martinez, reports Matt Eddy. The 24-year-old has been intermittently injured and a deep sleeper the last few years. He’s thrown three innings above rookie ball for the Yankees, but last year they loaned him to the Mexican League, where he had a 3.66 ERA (4.73 FIP) in 91 innings. Not bad considering his experience and the fact the Mexican League is close to Triple-A in terms of competition level.

Arizona Fall League (stats are final)

IF Thairo Estrada: 19 G, 19-for-80 (.238), 9 R, 2 2B, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 15 K, 1 CS, 1 HBP (.238/.282/.263)
OF Estevan Florial: 21 G, 13-for-73 (.178), 10 R, 2 2B, 2 3B, 8 RBI, 12 BB, 29 K, 2 SB, 1 CS (.178/.294/.260)
1B Steven Sensley: 21 G, 15-for-76 (.197), 4 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 26 K, 1 CS, 2 HBP (.197/.256/.263)
RHP Jordan Foley: 7 G, 7 GS, 19.2 IP, 20 H, 20 R, 20 ER, 19 BB, 20 K, 2 HR, 1 HB, 2 WP (9.15 ERA and 1.98 WHIP) — he was traded after the AzFL season ended
RHP Hobie Harris: 9 G, 15 IP, 14 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 7 BB, 16 K, 1 HR, 2 WP (4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP)
RHP Matt Wivinis: 11 G, 12 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 6 BB, 14 K, 1 HB, 1 WP (1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP)
RHP Kyle Zurak: 9 G, 9.1 IP, 16 H, 15 R, 12 ER, 10 BB, 3 K, 3 HR, 3 WP (11.57 ERA and 2.79 WHIP)

[Read more…]

The Yankees and a Jon Gray hypothetical

July 3, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Over the weekend the Rockies made some headlines when they optioned nominal ace and two-time Opening Day starter Jon Gray down to Triple-A. When you lead the league in hits (108) and earned runs (59) allowed, and pitch to a 5.77 ERA in 17 starts and 92 innings, you’re liable to find yourself in the minors. Even when you call Coors Field home and the ballpark undoubtedly inflates your numbers.

“This was the right time to get Jon to Triple-A to work on some things, not so much mechanically, but mentally, and to realize the inconsistencies that have been happening this season,” said Rockies manager Bud Black to Patrick Saunders. “We’ve got to try to get those things straightened out. We felt that at this time it was best for him to work out some of these things in the minor leagues.”

Gray didn’t bemoan the Triple-A assignment — “I am going to do whatever I can to get right,” he said to Saunders — which is good, but the fact remains he had to be sent to the minors. The Rockies, really for the first time in franchise history, have an impressive collection of young starters. Gray is the centerpiece and things are not going according to plan this season. It’s a setback for a team that went to the NL Wild Card Game last year. No doubt.

In terms of run prevention, Gray has stunk. When it comes to getting strikeouts (28.9%) and limiting walks (7.0%) and homers (1.08 HR/9), Gray has been pretty great. At the time of his demotion, his 3.09 FIP was 14th best among the 89 pitchers with enough inning to qualify for the ERA title, just ahead of Corey Kluber (3.29 FIP). One-hundred-and-two pitchers have thrown at least 400 innings since 2015, and among those 102, Gray has the …

16th lowest FIP (3.38).
17th best strikeout rate (25.8%).
12th highest ERA (4.77).

It would be easy — and not entirely unfair — to blame Coors Field for the inflated ERA, but, in his career to date, Gray has a 4.75 ERA (3.33 FIP) at home and a 4.67 ERA (3.41 FIP) on the road. Hmmm. We’ve seen plenty of pitchers struggle to keep runs off the board despite sexy peripheral numbers. Michael Pineda is a great example. Big Mike had a 4.16 ERA (3.65 FIP) during his time in pinstripes.

To date, the discrepancy between Gray’s run prevention numbers and fielding independent numbers is extreme. How extreme? Since the mound was lowered in 1969, there have been 1,422 pitchers to throw at least 400 innings in the big leagues. The biggest differences in ERA and FIP:

Jon Gray: 1.33 ERA-FIP
Esmil Rogers: 1.14 ERA-FIP
Jose Silva: 1.09 ERA-FIP
Bob Veale: 1.02 ERA-FIP
Dana Eveland: 1.02 ERA-FIP

Esmil Rogers! But yeah, the difference between Gray’s ERA and FIP is historically huge. Coors Field plays a role in that, undoubtedly. Given the home/road splits, it would be wrong to blame the ballpark exclusively for Gray’s run prevention issues, however. The Rockies certainly feel that way. Otherwise they wouldn’t have sent him to Triple-A. Black did mention Gray needed to work on some things “mentally,” after all.

That is all a long way of saying Gray is a very talented — you don’t miss this many bats in the big leagues without talent — but also inconsistent and enigmatic. It’s gotten to the point where the Rockies don’t believe Gray can be fixed in the big leagues, so they sent him to the minors, where he can work on things in a low pressure environment where wins and losses don’t matter. Gray’s issues this year have been mostly limited to pitching with men on base:

	IP	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	BABIP
Bases Empty	53.1	1.93	35.7%	4.8%	49.6%	.405
Men on Base	38.2	4.69	20.3%	9.9%	41.7%	.367

The Rockies do deserve some share of the blame for Gray’s struggles this season. His .386 BABIP is the highest in baseball — Lance Lynn is a distant second at .341 — and that’s the kind of thing that happens when you play in a ballpark with the second most outfield square footage in baseball and field the game’s second worst defensive outfield (-24 DRS). Give the dude a little help!

Is some frustration setting in? Yeah, I imagine so. For both Gray and the Rockies. After last season (3.67 ERA and 3.18 FIP) I’m sure the club was hoping Gray would take that next step and become one of the game’s premier pitchers. It hasn’t happened. Are they frustrated enough to make him available in trades? Well, that’s another question entirely. On one hand, I’m sure the Rockies don’t want to sell low. On the other, this is the team paying Ian Desmond and Gerardo Parra a combined $32M this season, so maybe their decision-making process isn’t the best?

The Yankees, as you know, are looking for rotation help prior to the July 31st trade deadline. They want short-term and long-term help. Someone who can help them win this year and, preferably, also someone who can pair up with Luis Severino to lead the rotation in the future. Jacob deGrom would be ideal, in my opinion. That’s probably not happening though. Gray is 26 years old, he’s a former tippy top prospect, and he’s under control through 2021. If the Rockies are open to moving him, the Yankees would be foolish not to make a call.

Two things to keep in mind here. One, the Yankees are where they are right now partly because they’ve pursued highly talented players who fell out of favor with their former teams. Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks are the big success stories. Nathan Eovaldi also fit into this category, though he didn’t work out quite as well. Point is, a very talented player who’s yet to come into a own and is frustrating his team is a prime Yankees’ trade target.

And two, the Yankees do have a bit of a history with Gray. They drafted him following his freshman year at a junior college and offered him a healthy $500,000 bonus to sign, but he declined and transferred to Oklahoma. Two years later the Rockies made him the third overall pick in the 2013 draft. The people running the amateur scouting department then are still running it now. At one point the Yankees saw something in Gray they really liked — it’s not every year a tenth rounder is offered half-a-million bucks — and chances are he still has fans in the organization.

Gray fits the typical Yankees’ profile. He’s big, he throws hard, he misses bats, and his current team might be souring on him. There are two questions now. One, will the Rockies trade him? Who knows. Everyone is available at the right price, and the right price for the Rockies might not be the right price for the Yankees. And two, is Gray fixable? I sure hope so. He’s still so young and his stuff is so good …

… that I’d like to think he’s not only salvageable, but he still has a chance to be a frontline starter. Gray is not the first highly regarded young pitcher to wind up back in Triple-A two years into his MLB career. The Tigers sent Max Scherzer down for a bit in 2010 and he came back as a Cy Young contender. Sometimes a player hits a rut, needs to go down to work on things, and comes out better for it on the other end. Gray’s not the first and he won’t be the last.

To me, Gray seems like a fantastic change-of-scenery candidate. Get him out of Coors Field full-time and get him into a new organization with a fresh set of eyes — that means both coaches and analytics folks — and see where it takes him. If the Rockies are getting frustrated with Gray and are open to moving on, the Yankees have the pieces to make a deal happen. In all likelihood, this is all hypothetical. Strange things happen at the deadline though, and Gray becoming available would represent an opportunity to nab elite talent at a potentially reduced price.

Scouting the Trade Market: Under-the-Radar Pitching Targets

June 13, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

At some point between now and the July 31st trade deadline, the Yankees are going to trade for a starting pitcher. It is not 100% set in stone, of course, just extremely likely. Jordan Montgomery is done for the season and Masahiro Tanaka will be out several weeks, plus enough physical concerns exit with Tanaka and CC Sabathia that adding depth to get through the 162-game season makes sense.

The trade deadline is less than seven weeks away now, and while many players will become available between now and then, we already have an idea who the top trade candidates will be. Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ, Tyson Ross, maybe Michael Fulmer, maybe Chris Archer. There’s a case to be made for acquiring each of those guys and a case to be made for staying away. They’re all should be available though.

We’ve been talking about those guys so much that I’m sick of hearing about them. I’m more interested in potential surprise trade candidates. The guys who become available that no one really had on their radar. The Tommy Kahnle pickup, though part of a larger trade, kinda came out of nowhere. Trying to come up with surprise trade candidates is never easy, though after some digging around, I think I’ve identified three possibilities. Let’s get to ’em.

The Project Pitcher: RHP Tyler Glasnow, Pirates

Background: The soon-to-be 25-year-old Glasnow is a former top prospect who spent several years in the top 25 of Baseball America’s annual top 100 list. Walks have always been an issue though, and in spot start duty from 2016-17, he had a 6.75 ERA (5.74 FIP) with 19.5% strikeouts and 13.4% walks in 85.1 innings. This season Glasnow has a 4.89 ERA (3.56 FIP) with 29.4% strikeouts, 11.8% walks, and 51.1% grounders in 35 innings, all in long relief.

Breakdown: Glasnow is a Yankees-sized pitcher (6-foot-8 and 220 lbs.) and he has simplified things out of the bullpen this year, relying mostly on his mid-to-upper-90s fastball and hard 80-ish mph curveball. During his days as a starter he also threw an upper-80s changeup and tinkered with a slider. Glasnow has shown much better than league average spin rates with his fastball (2,419 rpm vs. 2,263 rpm) and curveball (2,825 rpm vs. 2,507 pm). That is an elite curveball spin rate on par with Justin Verlander’s (2,837 rpm) and Charlie Morton’s (2,931 rpm).

Reasons To Trade For Him: The raw stuff is excellent — that’s why Glasnow was a top prospect for such a long time — and we’re talking about a 24-year-old kid under team control through 2023. The Yankees love physically huge power pitchers and Glasnow fits that profile perfectly. He misses bats, he gets grounders, and an argument can be made you’d be buying low on him right now. Would the Pirates trade him? Who knows. They haven’t exactly knocked it out of the park with their decision-making lately.

Reasons To Stay Away: Glasnow’s mechanics and lack of control are real problems. There’s some Dellin Betances in him. He’s big, his delivery can fall out of whack, and finding the strike zone isn’t always easy. Even during his prospect days, there was some thought Glasnow would fit best in the bullpen, where he could work in shorter stints and not have to worry about repeating his delivery 100 times a game. Those are really the only reasons to stay away. The stuff is good and he’s been healthy throughout his career. The mechanics and control make Glasnow a project, potentially a difficult one.

The Post-Hype Pitcher: RHP Jeff Hoffman, Rockies

Background: The Blue Jays drafted Hoffman, a semi-local kid from Albany, with the ninth overall pick in the 2014 draft even though he had Tommy John surgery a few weeks earlier. They shipped him to the Rockies as the headliner in the Troy Tulowitzki deal in 2015. Hoffman, 25, has been an up-and-down spot starter the last few years, pitching to a 5.65 ERA (5.15 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 9.7% walks in 130.2 innings. There is of course some Coors Field stink in there — Hoffman has a career 6.97 ERA (5.41 FIP) at home and 4.04 ERA (4.76 FIP) on the road.

Breakdown: Hoffman was not the ninth overall pick despite Tommy John surgery by accident. He’s a power pitcher with a deep arsenal. His fastball sits mid-90s, his slider and changeup are mid-80s offerings, and he has an upper-70s curveball as well. If you’re into such things, the scouting report at FanGraphs says the fastball, slider, and curveball all have above-average potential with the changeup being a potential average fourth pitch. Last season, during his only extended big league stint, Hoffman showed above-average spin rates with his fastball (2,385 rpm vs. 2,263 rpm), his curveball (2,687 rpm vs. 2,507 rpm), and his slider (2,706 rpm vs. 2,398 rpm).

Reasons To Trade For Him: The Rockies have more quality young pitching right now than they’ve ever had at any point in franchise history. Hoffman has been struck in Triple-A most of the season — he was recently called up for long relief duty — and, to me, he’s a great post-hype target. By that I mean a talented young player who was once a top prospect, but has since kinda faded out of the spotlight. Think the pitcher version of Didi Gregorius or Aaron Hicks.

Hoffman clearly has a lot going for him given his two quality breaking balls and high-octane heater. He hasn’t had much time in the big leagues, but he strikes me as someone who could really benefit from the Yankees’ anti-fastball philosophy. Look at Hoffman’s pitch selection during his 2016-17 MLB stints:

The curveball and slider (and, to a lesser degree, the changeup) are good pitches. Throw them! I know Hoffman throws hard, but approaching 70% fastballs from 2016-17? Seems a little high given his secondary pitches. Maybe that’s a Coors Field thing. The breaking balls didn’t behave properly in the thin mountain air and Hoffman leaned on his fastball. Either way, a 25-year-old with a good four-pitch mix who is under team control through 2023 seems like an obvious trade target to me, assuming the Rockies are actually open to dealing him.

Reasons To Stay Away: The Tommy John surgery, for one. There’s an injury history here. The larger flaw is that, even at his best, Hoffman didn’t miss as many bats as the stuff would lead you to believe. Despite a career 27.6% strikeout rate in the minors, his swing-and-miss rate has been consistently in the 9% to 10% range, which is well-below-average for a top pitching prospect. Trading for Hoffman would mean banking on a return to sea level and the anti-fastball lifestyle getting him to miss more bats and maybe get more ground balls too (career 43.8% grounders).

The Established Rental: RHP Garrett Richards, Angels

Background: At this point Richards is a known commodity. He broke out in 2014, battled injuries from 2016-17, and so far this season he has a 3.26 ERA (3.87 FIP) with 27.1% strikeouts, 11.4% walks, and 50.6% grounders in 66.1 innings. The Yankees have hammered Richards twice this year, scoring 12 runs (eight earned) in four innings in two starts. Against non-Yankees teams, the 30-year-old right-hander has a 2.31 ERA (3.64 FIP) in 62.1 innings this season.

Breakdown: Richards truly has top 1% stuff, I believe. He’s upper-90s with his four-seam and two-seam fastballs, right around 90 mph with his slider, and low-80s with his hammer curveball. Among the 101 pitchers to throw at least 1,000 pitches so far this season, Richards has the highest four-seamer spin rate (2,607 rpm), the highest two-seamer spin rate (2,549 rpm), the highest slider spin rate (2,906 rpm), and the highest curveball spin rate (3,245 rpm). Spin rate is not everything. It’s like velocity. It’s one tool in the shed. But holy crap, no pitcher in baseball combines velocity and spin like Richards.

Reasons To Trade For Him: This seems obvious enough, right? Richards has shown he’s a very good big league pitcher with high-end stuff that produces strikeouts and grounders. He’s a free agent after the season, so this is a rental situation. For Richards to actually become available, the Angels will probably have to fall out of the race before the deadline, which simply might not happen, even with Shohei Ohtani and Andrelton Simmons on the disabled list. The Halos are currently 6.5 games back in the AL West and six games back of the second wildcard spot. To me, they look good enough to hang around the race all season. If they don’t though, Richards may suddenly become a very in-demand trade candidate.

Reasons To Stay Away: The lack of success at Yankee Stadium (19 runs in 23 career innings) doesn’t scare me too much because Richards wouldn’t be facing the Yankees at Yankee Stadium anymore. The larger issue here is his injury history, which is ugly. Richards tore the patella tendon in his left knee covering first base in 2014, he tore his elbow ligament in 2016 and managed to avoid Tommy John surgery by rehabbing the ligament with an experimental stem cell procedure, and last season he missed most of the year with a biceps strain. Trade for Richards and you run the risk of him getting hurt and not contributing at all. And maybe that’s a risk worth taking. It’s not like there’s a long-term commitment here. Aside from the injuries, everything else looks pretty good. Richards can bring it.

* * *

The Yankees should — and will — consider both short and long-term rotation additions at the deadline. If there’s a rental who could help put them over the top this season, great. If there’s someone available will multiple years of control who can help them win now and later, even better. Montgomery will miss most of next season and Sabathia might not be back. There’s no such thing as too much pitching, right? The Yankees have space for rentals like Richards and long-term guys like Glasnow and Hoffman.

There are some obvious issues with the three guys in this post. One, Richards might not ever actually become available. And two, are Glasnow and Hoffman guys who could help you win right now? Are they starting postseason games this year? Maybe they could. To me, they seem like future pieces the Yankees would acquire this season, tinker with the rest of the way, then really turn loose next season. They’d join the Justus Sheffield/Jonathan Loaisiga talent pool rather than the Luis Severino/Sonny Gray/Sabathia/Tanaka group.

Coming up with under-the-radar trade candidates ain’t easy. Glasnow, Hoffman, and Richards jumped out at me because the stuff is excellent and, in the case of Glasnow and Hoffman, they fit the “buy low on a talented player who is kinda sorta falling out of favor with his current team” mold the Yankees used to get Gregorius and Hicks (and Nathan Eovaldi). I have no doubt surprise trade candidates will begin to surface. Maybe these dudes will be among them. Either way, the Yankees are going to look high and low for another starter before July 31st.

Yankeemetrics: Rocky Mtn. High and Low [June 21-22]

June 23, 2016 by Katie Sharp Leave a Comment

From Super-Nova to Black Hole
The Yankees returned to the Bronx for their final homestand before the All-Star break but gave their fans nothing to cheer about on Tuesday night against the Rockies. This was another sloppy performance with multiple baserunning blunders, two errors committed and poor clutch hitting (0-for-10 with runners in scoring position), resulting in an 8-4 loss.

Yankee pitchers flashed dominance with 13 strikeouts, but also were pounded by Colorado’s lineup, allowing 15 hits. It’s just the fourth time in the last 100 years that the Yankees have reached both of those thresholds in a nine-inning game; the most recent was a 12-8 loss to the Red Sox on Sept. 6, 2013.

The game couldn’t have started worse as Ivan Nova allowed a leadoff homer on the third pitch he threw to Charlie Blackmon. He’s now given up at least one homer in 12 straight starts dating back to last season, matching Phil Hughes (2012) for the second-longest streak in franchise history. The only longer one is a 14-start streak by Dennis Rasmussen in 1986.

Nova’s first couple weeks in the starting rotation looked promising, with a 1.65 ERA in his initial three turns. But he’s really struggled over the past month, posting a 6.88 ERA in his last six starts. The biggest culprit during this poor stretch has been an erratic sinker that’s not doing much sinking lately. Batters are slugging .606 against the pitch over his last six starts, compared to .324 in his first three starts.

Blackmon wasn’t the only Rockie who clobbered Nova; Carlos Gonzalez had a couple hits, including a bullet line-drive double to right field in the fifth inning that left his bat at 118 mph, per Statcast. That’s the fourth-highest exit velocity for any batted ball this season, and the highest mark given up by a Yankee pitcher in the last two seasons (since Statcast began recording exit velocity data).

A star is born
Welcome to the True Yankee® club, Mr. Castro. Starlin Castro saved the Yankees from another horrific loss on Wednesday afternoon, belting a no-doubt homer in the bottom of the ninth inning to give the Yankees one of their wildest and most dramatic wins of the season.

It was a game that neither team seemingly wanted to win as both teams managed to blow four-run leads, with the Yankees delivering the final blow thanks to the clutch bat of Castro.

It was the 26-year-old infielder’s first career walk-off homer, as he became the fourth Yankee with a walk-off homer in Interleague play. The others are Russell Martin (2012 vs. Mets), Alex Rodriguez (2006 vs. Braves) and Jason Giambi (2005 vs. Pirates).

In the last 50 years, only one other Yankee second baseman has hit a walk-off shot: Robinson Cano did it on August 28, 2009 against the White Sox. Before that, you have to go all the way back to July 11, 1953 when Billy Martin beat the Senators with a solo homer to lead off the bottom of the 10th.

Chase Headley gave the Yankees a 4-0 lead when he crushed a 97 mph fastball dead-center into Monument Park in the second inning for his first grand slam in pinstripes (fourth in his career), and the first one by a Yankee this year.

The last time the Yankees went this deep into the season (by date) without a bases-loaded homer was 1991, when Matt Nokes hit the team’s only grand slam on September 23 against the Brewers.

CC Sabathia gave that lead right back to the Rockies with his worst performance of the year. He gave up a season-high six runs in 4 1/3 innings, matching the number of runs he allowed in his previous seven starts spanning 44 innings pitched.

Regression came swiftly for Sabathia, but it’s hardly surprising that he faltered against the Rockies. He now has a 6.08 ERA in eight career starts against them, his second-highest ERA versus any team in his career. The highest? A 6.16 ERA in nine starts versus the Yankees.

Despite the win, it is hard to ignore how historically inept the pitching staff was in their four games against the Rockies this year. The 8.74 ERA, .633 slugging percentage and 1.034 OPS allowed were each the highest marks by a Yankee team in a season series against any opponent over the last 100 years.

6/21 to 6/22 Series Preview: Colorado Rockies

June 21, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees are back in the Bronx for a nine-game homestand following a disappointing 3-3 road trip through Colorado and Minnesota. They’re playing the Rockies again — and they’ll play the Twins again later on the homestand — after dropping both games in Coors Field last week. This is another quick two-game set.

What Have They Done Lately?

The Rockies beat the Yankees twice last week, then they went to Miami for four games with the Marlins, and they dropped three of four by the combined score of 20-12. Figures. Colorado is 33-36 overall with a -9 run differential on the season. They seem to do this every year. Stay somewhat relevant through June or so, then completely collapse in the second half.

Offense & Defense

As we saw last week, the Rockies can score runs in a hurry. Manager Walt Weiss’ team is averaging 5.01 runs per game with a team 94 wRC+, though it’s worth pointing out they score only 4.24 runs per game on the road compared to 5.97 runs per game at Coors Field. The Rockies have one injured position player at the moment: LF Gerardo Parra (65 wRC+). Remember when SS Trevor Story (114 wRC+) ran him over chasing a pop-up last week? Parra landed on the DL with an ankle sprain because of that play.

Weiss builds his lineup around two players. Well, three players, really. Megastar 3B Nolan Arenado (132 wRC+) is the centerpiece and RF Carlos Gonzalez (123 wRC+) sure is one heck of a second piece. Don’t sleep on CF Charlie Blackmon (107 wRC+) though. He sets the tone from the leadoff spot. 2B D.J. LeMahieu (118 wRC+) and Story are very good complementary players on the middle infield. There’s a little of everything in that group. Power, contact, speed, you name it.

1B Mark Reynolds (103 wRC+) is having a very nice season to date even though he’s not a true talent .290 hitter. We all know that. OF Ryan Raburn (99 wRC+) and OF Brandon Barnes (18 wRC+) are splitting time in left with Parra out. C Nick Hundley (108 wRC+) and C Tony Wolters (43 wRC+) split catching duties. IF Cristhian Adames (60 wRC+) and IF Daniel Descalso (170 wRC+) are the other bench players. With the DH this series, I’m guessing Weiss will shoehorn both Raburn and Barnes into the starting lineup.

The Rockies have a very good team defense, led by the otherworldly Arenado at third base. He’s unreal at the hot corner. LeMahieu and Story are very good on the middle infield and so is Blackmon in center. CarGo is a fine right fielder and Barnes is definitely the better defender between him and Raburn. Reynolds is Reynolds. You can run on Hundley. Not so much Wolters though. Colorado can catch the ball for sure.

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday (7:05pm ET): RHP Ivan Nova (vs. COL) vs. RHP Chad Bettis (vs. NYY)
Bettis, a personal fave, has a 5.63 ERA (4.52 FIP) in 14 starts and 78.1 innings this season, so it seems I have a thing for bad pitchers. In my defense, he has been better on the road (5.52 ERA) than at home in Coors Field (5.79 ERA). Wait, that doesn’t work. Dammit to hell. Anyway, the 27-year-old right-hander has good walk (5.5%) and grounder (51.0%) numbers but bad strikeout (16.8%) and homer (1.38 HR/9) rates. He’s also been getting hammered by righties, which is not unusual. He has a career reverse split. Bettis operates with three fastballs: low-90s sinkers and four-seamers, plus an upper-80s cutter. A mid-80s changeup and an upper-70s curveball are his two offspeed pitches. Last week Bettis held the Yankees to three runs (two earned) in six innings.

Wednesday (1:05pm ET): LHP CC Sabathia (vs. COL) vs. RHP Jon Gray (No vs. NYY)
Ah yes, the one who got away. The Yankees drafted the 24-year-old Gray out of junior college in the tenth round back in 2011, but he turned down their well-above-slot bonus offer, went to Oklahoma for two years, and blossomed into the third overall pick in the 2013 draft. Gray has a 4.55 ERA (3.53 FIP) in eleven total starts and 65.1 innings this season, and he’ll bring above-average strikeout (26.8%) and grounder (49.0%) rates into tomorrow’s start. His walk rate (7.7%) is about average and he’s been a bit dinger prone (1.1 HR/9), though Coors Field can be blamed for at least part of that. Gray has allowed five homers in 28.2 innings at home and only three in 36.2 innings on the road. Lefties have had a tad more success against him than righties. As you’d expect from the No. 3 pick, Gray sits comfortably in the mid-90s with his fastball and has run it up as high as 99 mph this season. A hard upper-80 slider is his put-away pitch. He’ll also throw some mid-80s changeups and even a few upper-70s curves per start. As far as promising young pitchers with less than a full year of MLB service time go, Gray is among the best. The Yankees didn’t see him in the series in Colorado last week.

Bullpen Status

Believe it or not, the Rockies are carrying nine relievers at the moment. Yes, nine. They normally carry eight relievers anyway, but the other day starter Tyler Chatwood landed on the DL with a back problem. The Rockies called up an extra reliever for a few days until they need to call up the spot starter later this week. Here is the bullpen Weiss has to work with:

Closer: RHP Carlos Estevez (3.86 ERA/4.02 FIP)
Setup: LHP Boone Logan (1.45/1.78), RHP Jason Motte (2.00/3.90), RHP Chad Qualls (4.64/4.71)
Middle: RHP Miguel Castro (5.14/5.19), RHP Gonzalez German (4.88/4.95), RHP Justin Miller (5.46/4.03), RHP Scott Oberg (4.05/5.22)
Long: RHP Eddie Butler (6.26/5.14)

Gosh, that’s a lot of bullpen. Colorado is currently without LHP Jake McGee (4.98/4.50), the ex-Ray and their usual closer. He’s out with a knee issue. Estevez is closing in the meantime with those three veterans setting up. The Rockies committed $32.5M across seven contract seasons to Logan, Motte, and Qualls. They’re not shy about paying veteran free agent relievers well. How else are they going to get them to come to Colorado?

Oberg is the new addition. He was called up the other day to temporarily replace Chatwood. He wasn’t on the roster when the Yankees and Rockies met last week. Motte (23 pitches), Estevez (17), Logan (9), Castro (3), and Qualls (2) all pitched yesterday, though only Castro has pitched in each of the last two days. Head on over to our Bullpen Workload page for the status of Joe Girardi’s bullpen.