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4/12 to 4/14 Series Preview: Chicago White Sox

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The hottest hitter in baseball, Tim Anderson. (Getty Images)

Sweeps, sweeps are no fun unless you brought one for everyone. Luckily, both the Yankees and White Sox were swept to start the week, so something has to give.

Their Story So Far

At 3-8, the White Sox have the second-worst record in the American League, only ahead of the Royals. They come into Friday’s action having lost five straight to the Mariners and Rays. In 11 games, the Southsiders have allowed 77 runs, an alarming seven per game.

What makes the White Sox interesting? Shortstop Tim Anderson is hitting .514 through 38 plate appearances. Eloy Jimenez is the second-most-hyped rookie in the AL and Yoan Moncada still has some high upside. Jose Abreu may be the best first-base upgrade available on the trade market this summer. If you’re looking for pitching potential, look to their IL or the Minor Leagues.

Injury Report

Top pitching prospect Michael Kopech is recovering from Tommy John surgery after his elbow blew out in his first month in The Show last season. He’s done for the year.

Meanwhile, RHP Ian Hamilton (right shoulder inflammation) and journeyman outfielder Jon Jay (right hip strain) are on 10-day injured list.

Pitching Matchups

The Yankees haven’t announced starters for Friday and Sunday, so I tried to fill in the blanks.

Friday (7:05 PM ET): J.A. Happ (vs. White Sox) vs. Lucas Giolito (vs. Yankees)

Since the start of 2018, here is where Lucas Giolito ranks among qualified starters

  • 2nd worst in fWAR (0.2)
  • Worst ERA (6.10)
  • 2nd worst FIP (5.44)
  • 2nd worst xFIP (5.32, behind only teammate Reynaldo Lopez)
  • 2nd worst walk rate (11.6%)
  • Worst K-BB rate (5.1%)

Giolito has been positively dreadful since a promising Chicago debut in 2017. He’s still just 24 years old, but the numbers are staggering. The 6-foot-6 right-hander has the height of a Yankees reliever but nowhere near the results. His strikeouts have increased in the small sample of 2019, but he’s still walking more than four per nine.

He sits around 93 mph with his fastball he throws more than half the time while using a changeup, curve and slider nearly equally among offspeed offerings. The four-seamer has a significant rise in spin rate (2094 rpm in 2018 vs. 2197 rpm in 2019), though that may be a tracking error with him eschewing his lower-spin sinker.

Giolito (Baseball Savant)

Saturday (1:05 PM ET): CC Sabathia (vs. White Sox) vs. Ivan Nova (vs. Yankees)

Welcome back my friend to the show that never ends. Since Nova was traded from New York in 2016, he’s had one appearance against the Yanks, beating them in Pittsburgh the following April. This will be his triumphant return to the Bronx.

Nova is now a veteran innings eater after turning 32 in January. He had one great start (7 IP, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K) vs. the Indians and one awful one against the world-beating Mariners. I don’t know if you can really judge him based off those results, though his velocity is down about one mph across the board, his fastball sitting at 91.7 mph.

He hasn’t changed his approach too much from his time in New York, still throwing fastballs and sinkers about two-thirds of the time. However, he’s lessened his curveball usage this year and re-introduced his slider, which he hasn’t used since 2012-13. He also uses his mid-80s changeup more often than ever at 11.5 percent.

Nova (Baseball Savant)

Sunday (1:05 PM ET) Domingo German (vs. White Sox) vs. Carlos Rodon (vs. Yankees)

If the White Sox have an above-average starter, it’s Rodon. The former No. 3 overall pick is now an arbitration-eligible veteran of 26 years old in his fifth year in the bigs.

In the past, he’s been a four-pitch starter: Four-seamer, slider, changeup and sinker. This season, he’s reduced it to two, throwing the four-seamer and slider for nearly 94 percent of his pitches. It’s led to a dramatic increase in his strikeout rate with 24 in 16 innings, though his walks are still around four per nine. This change in his arsenal could be the fix that unlocks his potential, or it could be a red herring of early season results.

Through three starts, he has a 3.38 ERA and has struck out at least six batters in each outing. However, he walked five in the last game against Tampa after just one in each of his first two starts. Last Aug. 27, Rodon held the Yankees to two hits (and four walks) over seven innings to earn a victory in the Bronx. Now New York can get some revenge.

Rodon (Baseball Savant)

Potential Lineup

  1. Leury Garcia, RF (.325/.357/.375, 106 wRC+)
  2. Tim Anderson, SS (.514/.526/.730, 255 wRC+)
  3. Jose Abreu, DH (.196/.245/.435, 81 wRC+)
  4. Yonder Alonso, 1B (.121/.326/.212, 69 wRC+)
  5. Wellington Castillo, C (.095/.367/.095, 69 wRC+)
  6. Yoan Moncada, 3B (.319/.360/.617, 166 wRC+)
  7. Eloy Jimenez, LF (.279/.326/.302, 79 wRC+)
  8. Jose Rondon, 2B (.250/.318/.500, 123 wRC+)
  9. Adam Engel, CF (.133/.133/.400, 31 wRC+)

This is a lineup more designed for a left-handed starter. With a righty on the mound, you can guarantee Alonso will be in the lineup while Castillo moves down, Moncada moves up and LH slugger Daniel Palka (0-for-25 this year) often joins the starting nine. Also on the bench is catcher James McCann (101 wRC+) and INF Yolmer Sanchez (-35 wRC+).

Bullpen Status

The White Sox have a veteran duo at the end of their bullpen with Alex Colome closing and Kelvin Herrera setting up. Beyond those two righties, famed Hamilton rival right-hander Ryan Burr, 33-year-old righty Nate Jones and left-hander Jace Fry sit in middle relief.

In long relief, the White Sox right now have rookie Jose Ruiz and veteran Manny Banuelos, who, shameless plug, I wrote about earlier this week after a stellar outing. After optioning former Yankees prospect Caleb Frare on Thursday, they’ll likely call up a fresh bullpen arm for the series.

If we see a lot of Colome and Herrera, it’s a bad sign for the Yankees. That gives you even more reason to root for Banuelos to make his Yankee Stadium debut.

Matchups to watch

Yankees against beatable starters
After facing three strong starters in Houston, the Yankees get a gift with the White Sox in town. They don’t get their two worst starters thus far, Reynaldo Lopez and Ervin Santana, but the top three aren’t a ton better. The middle of the bullpen is ripe for the picking, but the Bombers have to get there first.

Adam Engel vs. the wall
Please. Stop. Robbing. Yankee. Homers.

(MLB)

What if Manny Banuelos finally delivered and we weren’t watching?

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(Getty Images)

You can be forgiven for not watching the middle innings of Rays-White Sox on Tuesday afternoon.

I mean, it’s a Tuesday afternoon. Even if you’re an obsessed scoreboard watcher of AL East contenders such as myself, you’re more likely to focus on the Red Sox’s opener with Chris Sale on the hill. The Rays have been better, but it’s early April … and they’re playing the White Sox.

Furthermore, the game was already a blowout with Tampa Bay hitting three homers in the first three innings and knocking out Ervin Santana with seven runs in the first four frames. This, however, is all about what came next, the pitcher who came in after Santana: Manny Banuelos.

For 3 1/3 innings, Banuelos was everything we dreamed he would be. He struck out four, allowed three baserunners and held the Rays off the board, keeping the Sox in the game. Tampa couldn’t get the ball in the air outside of one pop out and Banuelos had them swinging and missing at his offspeed stuff. The southpaw was the only pitcher to retire Austin Meadows on the outfielder’s career day.

(MLB.TV)

Despite yesterday’s outing, Banuelos represents a story of promise and failure around these parts. In the next wave of prospects after the Big Three, Banuelos topped Yankees’ prospect lists at the same time as Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman. With Betances ticketed for relief and Brackman flaming out, Banuelos was the best hope for a homegrown ace.

Banuelos was poised to fulfill that potential despite a 5-foot-11 frame. He reached Triple-A at 20 years old in 2011. He was the No. 13 prospect before the 2012 season according to MLB.com and Baseball America ranked him No. 29, his second straight year in the top 50. Mariano Rivera called him the best pitching prospect he’d ever seen, forebodingly in the same article that he discussed Brien Taylor.

As with nearly every pitcher with a mid-90s fastball, Banuelos succumbed to injuries, though they came at the worst time for the lefty. He struggled with injuries in 2012 and eventually had to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. The left-hander was never the same in the Yankees’ system and was traded to Atlanta for relievers before the 2015 season.

He had success in Atlanta, although briefly. His best career outing was his debut in 2015, where he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings and struck out the NL MVP, Bryce Harper, all three times he faced him.

But then bone spurs came for Banuelos and he’s bounced between both Los Angeles teams and now to Chicago, still searching for his breakthrough at age 28.

And that brings up back to Tuesday. Banuelos looked like a version of his old self, the one we all heard about but never saw in pinstripes. The mid-90s heat is gone, but he’s making do with a low-90s sinker and still has the curve, slider and changeup. Look at this slider!

(MLB.TV)

To end his outing, he gave up his only hit, a seeing-eye single to Tommy Pham, but the southpaw picked off Pham a pitch later. After getting confirmation that the Rays wouldn’t challenge, Banuelos walked off the field, stretched his glove into the air and put it down to his lips while looking skyward, seemingly thanking the heavens as his day was done and perhaps with the relief of having a clean performance.

(MLB.TV)

Already on the wrong side of 25, Banuelos’ prospect shine is long gone. The idea of him headlining a rotation just isn’t in the cards. But that’s OK. Even if Banuelos hadn’t cracked the rebuilding Chicago roster this year, he’d have ended his career a Major Leaguer. There could be even brighter days ahead, and he even gets to finally pitch at Yankee Stadium this weekend, nearly a half-decade after he was unceremoniously traded.

As for us, the Yankee faithful, Banuelos is a permanent lesson of the tantalizing pitching prospect. He wasn’t flawless, particularly his height, but he was the no-doubt pitcher of the time. We’ve had to adjust our concept of pitching prospects and you’ll see that reflected on Baseball America and the like; Most evaluators have begun shying away from populating tops of lists with pitchers. No matter how good a 20-year-old pitcher looks, they’re one injury away from missing out or plateauing.

For one day though, in front of a sparse crowd of 10,799 fans, the promise of Manny Banuelos came through again . Too late for the Yankees? Surely. But it’s fulfilling nonetheless to see the prospect dreams of the last decade live, even if it’s just a random Tuesday in April.

Tuesday Notes: Sabathia, Luxury Tax, Severino, London Series

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(Getty)

The 2018 Winter Meetings are over and, historically, this last week before the Christmas and New Years holidays is a busy hot stove week. Teams and players like to get things settled before the calendar flips to next year. There should be some signings this week. Will the Yankees make any? We’ll see. Anyway, here are some miscellaneous notes to check out.

Yankees paid Sabathia innings bonus

Remember when CC Sabathia forfeited that $500,000 bonus because he threw at Jesus Sucre in his last regular season start? Of course you do. That was the “that’s for you, bitch” incident. Turns out Sabathia didn’t forfeit the bonus at all. According to Ronald Blum, the Yankees paid Sabathia the $500,000 bonus anyway even though he fell two innings short of triggering the bonus. Pretty cool.

“We thought it was a very nice gesture by the Yankees. CC was very appreciative and is really excited to come back next year and hopefully win a championship,” said Sabathia’s agent to Blum. Considering the score (Yankees led 11-0) and the way he was pitching (five one-hit innings), it seemed very likely Sabathia would throw those last two innings he needed to trigger the bonus. I have to say, I didn’t think the Yankees would pay the bonus. Paying out a bonus the player didn’t reach doesn’t seem like a precedent they’d want to set. Glad to see they paid Sabathia. Dude’s been worth every penny.

Yankees get $23,877.11 in luxury tax money

According to Blum, the Red Sox and Nationals were the only clubs to exceed the $197 million luxury tax threshold in 2018. Boston owes $11,951,091 in luxury tax and the Nationals owe $2,386,097. Because the Red Sox exceeded the threshold by more than $40M, they were hit with the maximum possible penalties, meaning two surtaxes plus having their first round pick moved back ten spots. I doubt they mind it after winning the World Series. The $14,337,188 owed by the Red Sox and Nationals is the smallest luxury tax bill since teams owed $11,798,357 in 2003.

The Yankees finished the season with a $192.98M luxury tax payroll. Add in the Sabathia bonus and my calculations had them at $192.99M. I am pretty darn proud to be that close. Go me. Anyway, the Yankees had paid luxury tax every year since the system was put in place in 2003 before getting under this year. Their total luxury tax bill from 2003-17 was north of $340M. According to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the first $13M of that $14,337,188 is used to pay for player benefits. Half the remainder goes to retirement accounts and the other half is distributed to the non-luxury tax paying teams. So congrats to the Yankees for getting $23,877.11 in luxury tax money this year. Hang a banner.

White Sox wanted Severino for Sale

Here’s a fun retroactive rumor. Brian Cashman recently told Ken Davidoff the White Sox wanted Luis Severino and another unnamed young core Yankee in exchange for Chris Sale during the 2016-17 offseason. I imagine that other player was either Gary Sanchez or Aaron Judge. “Thank God I didn’t do that, actually, because you’d be missing some serious components of our Major League club right now that are under control. We wouldn’t have gotten anywhere if I did anything like that with the White Sox back then,” said Cashman.

In the two years since trade talks, Sale has Severino beat in bWAR (+12.9 to +10.1) and fWAR (+14.2 to +11.5) but not by an enormous amount, and besides, who knows how each would’ve performed had the trade gone down. Their entire career paths would’ve changed in different organizations. Add in the second piece and gosh, I am a-okay with passing on Sale at that price. He’s a great pitcher. No doubt. The Yankees needed more than an ace pitcher at the time though. They needed as much young talent as possible and now they have a ton of it.

Start times for London Games announced

Olympic Stadium. (Getty)

A few days ago MLB announced the start times for the London Series games next June. The Yankees and Red Sox are playing a quick two-game set at London Stadium next year as MLB looks to grow the game globally and make money (not necessarily in that order). The Yankees will be the road team for those two games. Here are the start times:

  • Saturday, June 29th: 1:10pm ET (6pm in London) on FOX
  • Sunday, June 30th: 10:10am ET (3pm in London) on ESPN

Morning baseball on a Sunday? Pretty cool. The Yankees have back-to-back off-days prior to the London Series — it’s my understanding MLB has some promotional events scheduled for Friday, so I’m sure Yankees and Red Sox players will be involved — and one off-day following the London Series. They have a ten-game homestand, then they go to London for two games, then they come right back to New York for a road series against the Mets.

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Games moved up

It is a baseball miracle. Last week at the Winter Meetings it was announced ESPN Sunday Night Baseball games will be moved up one hour from 8pm ET to 7pm ET next season. Thank goodness for that. Now all those Sunday night Yankees-Red Sox games might actually end before midnight on the East Coast. The Yankees play a ton of Sunday night games each year and this means we’ll all get to bed at a more reasonable hour those nights.

The change was made because players hate those 8pm ET start times too. At least one team has to travel after the late Sunday game and get into their next city super early the next morning. Now they’ll have that extra hour. ESPN has released a partial 2019 Sunday Night Baseball schedule and already there are three Yankees-Red Sox games on the schedule (June 2nd, July 28th, August 4th). I’m sure the Yankees will play several other Sunday night games as well. They are unavoidable.

Yankee Stadium food safety rates poorly

According to an ESPN investigation, Yankee Stadium ranked dead last among the 30 MLB stadiums in food safety violations from 2016-17. That is a bad thing. Forty-three Yankee Stadium food service outlets were inspected and 34 contained high-level violations, including food that was “adulterated, contaminated, cross-contaminated, or not discarded” properly. Pretty gross! The Yankees and Dan Smith, president of Yankee Stadium food service provider Legends Hospitality, fired back at the report in a statement:

“We treat food safety with the utmost care. We disagree with the ESPN report, whose methodology is unexplainable. We work closely on regular inspections with the New York City Department of Health, whose rigorous participation is welcomed. We also complete our own independent assessments with various consultants and auditors, including food safety companies. If any violation is pointed out, it is addressed and corrected immediately. As a result, in 2018, all of our food stands received an A-level grade, which is the highest level in New York City.”

I suppose I should note the violation level at Yankee Stadium (0.67 high-level violations per inspection) is far lower than the violation level in the surrounding South Bronx area (1.47) so … yay? If at all possible, don’t eat at Yankee Stadium, and I would’ve said that even before seeing this report. The food is expensive and compared to other ballparks around the league, the concessions are seriously lacking. Seriously, how do the Yankees with their new ballpark have such crummy concessions? Folks, eat before or after the game if you can.

Sorting through possible trade partners for Sonny Gray

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(Presswire)

Once the offseason really gets going in a few weeks, we’ll all focus on who the Yankees will add over the winter. Manny Machado? Bryce Harper? Patrick Corbin? Mystery players? Brian Cashman has said the rotation will be the “focus point” this winter and that is no surprise given the state of the starting staff. The Yankees also need to figure out left field, the infield without Didi Gregorius, and also reinforce the bullpen.

While we understandably spend an unhealthy about of time looking at who the Yankees could acquire this winter, we also have to remember the Yankees are trying to subtract a player as well. That player: Sonny Gray. Gray has been a colossal disappointment in pinstripes (4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP in 195.2 innings) and Cashman Has made it clear the Yankees will look to trade Gray this winter. He was unusually candid at his end-of-season press conference.

“It hasn’t worked out thus far,” said Cashman at that press conference. “I think he’s extremely talented. We’ll enter the winter, unfortunately, open-minded to a relocation. To maximize his abilities, it would be more likely best somewhere else. If I do find a match, you’re gonna see what we had hoped to see here … Someone, if they trade for him, is gonna get the player we wanted. I fully expect that.”

Cashman made a point of saying he won’t give Gray away — what’s he supposed to say? — but, clearly, the Yankees want to move him. Usually in these cases the GM says it’s up to the team to help the player figure it out. Cashman skipped that entirely. Having listened to Cashman and Aaron Boone and Larry Rothschild all season, I sense a lot of frustration here, and the Yankees are ready to move on. I’m not surprised.

As a 28-year-old starting pitcher with a good track record — even after last season, Sonny has a 3.66 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 900.2 big league innings — and a relatively low salary (projected $9.1M in 2019), I get the feeling the Yankees will have no trouble finding potential trade partners for Gray. And remember, he was great outside Yankee Stadium this year (3.17 ERA and 2.65 FIP). Teams will notice. If Sonny were on any other team, wouldn’t we look at him as a possible buy-low candidate? Sure we would. That’s how other teams see him.

With the caveat that things can be unpredictable in the offseason, I’ve singled out several clubs who appear to be possible trade suitors for Gray. Even though he’ll be a free agent next offseason, I don’t think Gray’s market is limited to contending teams. A rebuilding club could be looking at him as a buy-low candidate they could flip for more at the trade deadline, or sign long-term. The Reds traded for Matt Harvey, right? Same idea. Let’s dive in. (Reminder: My trade proposal sucks.)

Chicago White Sox

Why would they want Gray? The rebuild hit a bump in the road this season. Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson didn’t take that step forward, Lucas Giolito went backwards, and Michael Kopech went down with Tommy John surgery. The ChiSox are always looking to acquire high-end talent though — they reportedly made a run at Machado at the deadline — and Don Cooper is a highly regarded pitching coach with a history of fixing pitchers. Getting Sonny on the cheap and seeing whether he can be a viable long-term rotation piece could interest the White Sox.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Carson Fulmer? Eh, that’s one headache for another. Fulmer hasn’t even pitched well in Triple-A. The only thing he has going for him right now is the fading “eighth overall pick in 2015” shine. Unless a deal gets expanded, the return here would most likely be a prospect(s). Not sure there’s a Gray for big leaguer trade that makes sense, not unless the ChiSox are willing to sell super low on Giolito, which kinda defeats the purpose.

Cincinnati Reds

Why would they want Gray? Again, they traded for Harvey, right? The Reds took a flier on a talented pitcher to see whether he could be a long-term option. A no-risk move that didn’t cost them anything. Cincinnati desperately needs pitching help and taking a chance on Gray the same way they took a chance on Harvey could be a worthwhile endeavor. From their perspective, it’s all about cost.

Who could they send the Yankees? One year of Gray for one year of Scooter Gennett? The Yankees would do that in a heartbeat and the Reds would assuredly want more, and hey, maybe that’s a gap the two teams can bridge. The Reds have a lot of young pitchers who’ve stalled out at the MLB level (Cody Reed, Amir Garrett) and the Yankees could try to pry one (or two) of them loose in hopes of adding a long-term piece. Reclamation project for reclamation project, basically.

Houston Astros

Why would they want Gray? The Astros could lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency this offseason, and while they have some in-house rotation options (Josh James, Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock), they could pursue outside help. Sonny still has excellent spin rates across the board and Houston may see him as a good low-cost, high-upside candidate for their pitching lab. Keep in mind the Astros pursued Gray at the 2017 trade deadline as well. They’ve had interest in him before.

Who could they send the Yankees? Despite being a World Series contender, Houston has not been shy about trading players off their MLB roster, though they’ve been spare parts (Joe Musgrove) and out-of-favor guys (Ken Giles). The Yankees could push something like one year of Gray for one year of Peacock or one year of McHugh. Peacock was quite good as a starter last season before shifting to the bullpen this year and eventually being left off the postseason roster. Gray for Peacock? That seems like it could be a potential win-win or a potential lopsided deal for either team.

Los Angeles Angels

Why would they want Gray? Pretty simple, really. Mike Trout is two years from free agency, so the Angels aren’t about to rebuild, and they need rotation help. Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are a good enough rotation top two. Getting a guy like Gray to slot in behind Heaney and Skaggs and ahead of dudes like Felix Pena, Jaime Barria, and Nick Tropeano makes sense for the Angels. Get Sonny out of New York and into a more pitcher friendly ballpark.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Kole Calhoun? It’s a one-year commitment for each and the money is close to a wash, plus the Angels wouldn’t have much trouble finding a replacement corner outfielder in free agency. Calhoun’s a lefty bat and a very good defender who would slot in nicely in left field. He just stopped hitting though. Calhoun went from a 117 wRC+ in 2016 to a 98 wRC+ in 2017 to a 79 wRC+ in 2018. Eh. Put Gray in a more pitcher friendly ballpark and Calhoun in a more hitter friendly ballpark and maybe it works out for both teams?

Milwaukee Brewers

Why would they want Gray? I still think the Brewers are the best landing spot for Gray. They need rotation help and their pitching coach, Derek Johnson, was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. The two are close. It’s a fit. Milwaukee has done a real nice job accumulating talent under GM David Stearns and Gray seems right up their alley as an upside play.

Who could they send the Yankees? Two names jumped to mind: Chase Anderson and Eric Thames. Anderson was great in 2017 (2.74 ERA and 3.58 FIP) and not so great in 2018 (3.93 ERA and 5.22 FIP), so much so that he was left off the postseason roster. He is guaranteed $6.5M next year with affordable options for 2020 and 2021. I’m not sure the Brewers are ready to give up on him yet. They’re trying to add pitching, not subtract it. Besides, bringing a dude who gave up 30 homers in 158 innings this season into Yankee Stadium might not work out too well.

Dingers. (Dylan Buell/Getty)

As for Thames, remember his huge April last year? Well, his performance has cratered since, and he hit .219/.306/.478 (105 wRC+) this year. Jesus Aguilar jumped him on the first base depth chart. Ryan Braun has also played some first base, so Thames is probably third on their first base depth chart. He wasn’t even on the Brewers postseason roster. Thames has one guaranteed year remaining on his contract ($7M) and Gray for Thames gives the Brewers a starter and the Yankees a lefty power bat they could plug in at first base or DH or, in an emergency, the outfield. Hmmm.

UPDATE: I should’ve mentioned Jonathan Schoop here as well, given that he’s a free agent next winter who is projected to make similar money as Gray. I just assumed the Brewers are not ready to flip him after trading some pretty good prospects to get him at the deadline. Schoop’s someone to keep in mind though.

Oakland Athletics

Why would they want Gray? I’ve heard through the grapevine that the A’s checked in on Gray at this year’s trade deadline. They really need starting pitching — they didn’t have anyone to start in the Wild Card Game! — and they know Sonny as well as anyone. The Athletics do have a history of trading for pricey veteran players one year before free agency (Jim Johnson and Luke Gregerson jump to mind) and again, they know Gray. They showed interest at the deadline and may look to bring him back to Oakland again this winter.

Who could they send the Yankees? Reverse the trade! Gray for James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Dustin Fowler! Nah, not happening. This trade has no winners right now. Mateo stunk this year, Kaprielian still hasn’t returned to game action following Tommy John surgery in April 2017, and Fowler struggled in MLB this year and was passed by Ramon Laureano on the center field depth chart. I don’t see an obvious big leaguer for big leaguer trade match here. It would have to be a prospect(s) that come back to New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Why would they want Gray? This is a long shot, I think. The Pirates traded Gerrit Cole last year because they were worried they couldn’t sign him long-term. Would they then turn around and trade for Gray when he could leave next year? I mean, sure, it’s possible, and they do need someone to slot alongside Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, and Trevor Williams in the rotation. Money might be the issue here. Pittsburgh operates on a strict budget and Gray may not fit.

Who could they send the Yankees? Hey, if Gray signs at his MLBTR projected salary, he and Nova would be a wash financially. The Pirates aren’t doing that though. Besides, I’ve seen enough Ivan Nova for one lifetime. He’s been the same old Ivan Nova the last two years (98 ERA+ and 4.51 FIP) after his stellar eleven-start cameo with Pittsburgh in 2016. Would the Pirates do Gray for Corey Dickerson? The Yankees could slot Dickerson in at left field and DH and he’d give them a good lefty bat. Seems unlikely. I don’t see a good big leaguer for big leaguer trade. A prospect(s) trade it would have to be.

San Diego Padres

Why would they want Gray? The Padres are my sleeper team. They have no money on the books long-term other than Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and their farm system is incredible. One of the best I’ve ever seen. They are very well-positioned to take a chance on Gray, see what he does next season, then pay to keep him if he’s a fit. San Diego reportedly tried to land Noah Syndergaard at the deadline. They’re looking for pitching. Gray’s no Syndergaard, but he could be really good, and the Padres are the perfect team to roll the dice.

Who could they send the Yankees? I thought about Cory Spangenberg. He’ll never live up to hype associated with being the tenth overall pick in 2011, but he’s a lefty bat who can play the three non-first base infield positions and also left field. The downside is Spangenberg has only hit .252/.318/.385 (88 wRC+) with a 29.0% strikeout rate in 815 plate appearances the last two years. He has two years of control remaining and perhaps the Yankees will see him as a poor man’s Didi Gregorius/Aaron Hicks. The talented player who hasn’t put together yet. I dunno. Aside from prospects, there’s no much on San Diego’s roster that excites me.

San Francisco Giants

Why would they want Gray? San Francisco’s interest in Gray depends entirely on their long-term plan. They’re hiring a new baseball operations head this winter and, if they decide to rebuild, forget it. No reason to bring in Gray. If they decide to go for it next year while Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey (and Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt) are in their primes, then the Giants could definitely be a team to watch for Gray. Their rotation is pretty sketchy with Jeff Samardzija crashing and Johnny Cueto having Tommy John surgery.

Who could they send the Yankees? In last week’s mailbag I looked at Joe Panik and Tony Watson. I can’t see the Giants trading Watson for Gray for two reasons. One, they could get more for him elsewhere. And two, if they trade for Gray, it’s because they want to win in 2019, and trading Watson hurts that cause. As for Panik, that seems more reasonable. Both he and Gray are reclamation projects at this point and San Francisco has some others they could plug in at second base. The Yankees have liked Panik in the past and they could bring him aboard as their second baseman (with Gleyber Torres shifting to shortstop) until Gregorius returns. Other than Panik and Watson, I don’t see another fit with the Giants. Their big league roster is thin and their farm system is weak.

Seattle Mariners

Why would they want Gray? Depending who you ask, the Mariners have either seven viable big league starters (Roenis Elias, Marco Gonzales, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, Wade LeBlanc, James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez) or three viable big league starters (Gonzales, Leake, Paxton). Felix has crashed hard the last few years and Elias, LeBlanc, and Ramirez are journeymen. If Gray leaves New York and pitches like he did earlier in his career, he’d be the second best starter in Seattle’s rotation, hands down. The window is closing and GM Jerry Dipoto has made it clear he’s going to do all he can to win before it slams shut.

Who could they send the Yankees? Geez, I have no idea. Their farm system is barren and their best big leaguers with short-term control are Felix (nope), Denard Span (eh), Juan Nicasio (nope), and Nick Vincent (nope). I’m sure we could cobble together an acceptable trade package if we tried hard enough. Nothing jumps out to me though.

Washington Nationals

Why would they want Gray? As bad as they were this year (82-80), the Nationals remain a win-now team. They still have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Victor Robles even if Bryce Harper leaves. Pretty good core! The Nationals could absolutely contend next season in the blob of mediocrity that is the National League. Washington has Scherzer, Strasburg, Tanner Roark, and maybe Joe Ross in their rotation. There is definitely room for Gray.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Adam Eaton? The money is close to a wash and the Nationals could still move forward with a Soto-Robles-Michael Taylor/free agent outfield should Harper not return. Knee and ankle injuries have limited Eaton to 118 games the last two seasons, but, when healthy, he’s hit .300/.394/.422 (123 wRC+). That’s really good! The downside is the leg injuries have sapped his defensive and baserunning value. As a stopgap left fielder, Eaton could work real nice. Would the Nationals really trade such a high on-base leadoff hitter if they’re trying to win though? I don’t see any other players on their big league roster that make sense.

* * *

Cashman is not an idiot. He was so open about trading Gray because he knows there’s interest and he won’t have any trouble drumming up potential trade partners. If he were worried at all about his trade leverage, he would’ve said the Yankees plan to keep Gray and get him right. That’s not what happened. In all likelihood multiple teams will be involved and the Yankees will benefit from a bidding war.

That doesn’t mean they’re going to walk away with a great package, of course. At the end of the day, Sonny is still coming off a terrible season and he’s still only under control one more season. His trade value is not sky high. It’s not nil though. I get the feeling we’re in for a lot of Sonny Gray rumors this winter, and, when it’s all said and done, the Yankees are going to end up with more than you’d expect for a dude coming off a replacement level season.

Yankeemetrics: White Sox end Bronx drought (Aug. 27-29)

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(AP)

How to snatch defeat from jaws of victory
The Yankees kicked off their week-long homestand with a frustrating loss to the White Sox, a spectacular crash back to reality, another late lead blown thanks to sloppy defense and baserunning mistakes.

It was a very winnable matchup based on the historical stats and the game conditions, facing Chicago southpaw Carlos Rodon, racing out to a 2-0 lead and Masahiro Tanaka completing seven innings. Consider that entering Monday, the Yankees this season were …

  • 26-9 against left-handed starters, the best record in MLB
  • 19-5 vs the AL Central, the best record by any team against another division
  • 60-10 when scoring first, the best record in MLB
  • 51-7 when their starter goes at least six innings, the best record in MLB

But that’s baseball, that’s why you play game the game on the diamond and not on paper.

The ugliest stat was the fact that the Yankees had as many hits as errors (3) in the game. Unsurprisingly, teams are 0-20 this season when the number of errors they make is the same or more than the number of hits they get. The last time the Yankees won such a game — while getting at least two hits — was June 2, 2004 against the Orioles (3 errors, 3 hits in a 6-5 win).

The lone highlight was Gleyber Torres’ two-run homer in the fourth inning, his 20th of the season. Torres is the third Yankee age 21 or younger to hit at least 20 home runs in a season, joining — shockingly — Mickey Mantle (1952, ‘53) and Joe DiMaggio (1936). He is also the only second baseman in MLB history that young to hit 20 homers in his rookie season. And combined with Miguel Andujar’s 20-plus longballs this year, we get a trio of #FunFacts:

  • First set of rookie teammates in franchise history to hit 20 homers
  • 10th team in major-league history to have rookie teammates reach 20 home runs in the same season, and the first since the 2008 Reds (Jay Bruce, Joey Votto). The last AL team to do it was the 1982 Twins (Tom Brunansky, Gary Gaetti, Kent Hrbek)
  • Fourth team in MLB history with rookie teammates age-23 or younger to hit 20 homers, along with the 1982 Twins, 1975 Red Sox (Fred Lynn, Jim Rice) and 1938 Indians (Jeff Heath, Ken Keltner)

Gleyber also was the sixth Yankee to reach the 20-homer mark in 2018, the most such players in MLB. This is the fourth Yankee club to have six (or more) players hit 20 bombs; the other seasons it happened were 2009, 2004 and 1961.

(USA Today)

”Neil Walker, the Home Run Corker” – John Sterling
From massive disappointment to mammoth jubilation, the Yankees quickly rebounded from Monday’s crappy loss with a thrilling comeback walk-off win 24 hours later. It was their seventh walk-off win of the season, two more than last year, and tied for the second-most among AL teams in 2018 (through Tuesday).

The rally started in the sixth with the team trailing 4-0, when Miguel Andujar blitzed a two-run shot deep into the leftfield seats. It was his 22nd homer and 61st extra-base hit of the season, putting him alongside a couple Yankee legends:

This was the Yankees fifth comeback win when facing a deficit of at least four runs, their most in a season since 2012 (also 5).

The Yankees were still down by two runs until Aaron Hicks evened the score with his own two-run blast in the bottom of the eighth. This was the first time in his career he tied a game in the eighth inning or later with a homer. It also paved the way for the Yankees fifth win this season when trailing by multiple runs at the start of the eighth inning, the second-highest total in MLB this season behind the A’s (7).

Neil Walker capped the rally when he ambushed the first pitch he saw as a pinch hitter in the bottom of the ninth inning and deposited it into the rightfield bleachers. It was just the second career walk-off homer for Walker, and the first time he ever went deep in a game as a pinch hitter.

Walker’s dinger was the 10th pinch-hit walk-off home run in franchise history and the first since Brian McCann delivered a game-winner off the bench on August 24, 2014 in the 10th inning against the White Sox. Only six others have done it in the ninth inning, like Walker:

Yankees Pinch-Hit Walk-Off HR in 9th Inning
Date Opponent
Neil Walker 8/28/2018 White Sox
Jason Giambi 6/5/2008 Blue Jays
Mike Easler 9/28/1987 Red Sox
Bobby Murcer 9/26/1981 Orioles
Oscar Gamble 9/27/1979 Indians
Curt Blefary 9/15/1970 Red Sox
Mickey Mantle 8/26/1966 Tigers

It’s been a while …
The comeback mojo disappeared on Wednesday as the Yankees dropped the rubber game, 4-1. This is the first time the Yankees lost a series to the White Sox at the new Yankee Stadium; the White Sox were the only AL team that had never won a series at the current ballpark in the Bronx.

The last time the Yankees lost a series to the White Sox at home was August 8-10, 2005 (lost 2 of 3 games). How long ago was that? The White Sox — on pace to lose nearly 100 games this season — won the World Series in 2005. And the three starters for the Yankees in that series more than 13 years ago were Mike Mussina (win), Shawn Chacon (loss) and Aaron Small (loss).

(USA Today)

White Sox outfield Ryan LaMarre was the Yankees kryptonite on Wednesday, and one of the most unlikely guys to play that role this season. LaMarre went 3-for-4 with two doubles and a homer, and drove in all four runs for the visitors. Entering the game, in 165 career at-bats, LaMarre had compiled six doubles, one homer and 11 RBI.

Ronald Torreyes made sure the Yankees wouldn’t get shut out when he delivered a bases-loaded one-out RBI single in the fifth inning. Torreyes definitely has a knack for bringing home baserunners that are 90 feet from home plate. Since the start of last season, in 23 plate appearances with a man on third and less than two outs, Torreyes has driven in the runner 19 times (82.6%) and has struck out zero times; the MLB average for scoring the runner from third with less than two outs is 50 percent.

8/27 to 8/29 Series Preview: Chicago White Sox

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Adam Engel is here to rob all of your home runs. (David Banks/Getty Images)

One can truly tell the season is approaching its conclusion when you get to the penultimate homestand of the year. The Yankees host two rebuilding AL Central teams this week, beginning with the Chicago White Sox.

The Last Time They Met

The Bombers are just three weeks removed from sweeping the South Siders at Guaranteed Rate Field on Aug. 6-8.

  • Lance Lynn dominated the White Sox in his first Yankee start, helping to end a five-game losing streak for New York.
  • The Yankees needed extra innings and a solid relief appearance from Sonny Gray to escape with a win in Game 2. Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar provided the heroics on offense.
  • Stanton’s grand slam buoyed the Yankees to a sweep while Luis Severino went seven strong for a quality start.
  • The Yankees would have had a much easier time if Adam Engel didn’t take away multiple home runs.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

The big news since last time is that Jose Abreu, the White Sox’s lone All Star, underwent abdominal surgery and is out until September. OF Leury Garcia also suffered a hamstring injury that could finish off his season.

Their Story So Far

The White Sox remain mired in fourth place at 51-79, matching their Pythagorean record. They’re in the middle part of a rebuild, no longer at the nadir of trading all assets and not yet in a place to contend. They have plenty of talent in the minor leagues as well as some fledgling former prospects working to make it in the majors, but Chicago is still a few years from seeing a second contending team within city limits.

Lineup We Might See

1. 3B Yolmer Sanchez (.245/.312/.381, 90 wRC+)
2. SS Tim Anderson (.247/.293/.417, 91 wRC+)
3. RF Avisail Garcia (.235/.267/.437, 87 wRC+)
4. DH Daniel Palka (.239/.282/.478, 102 wRC+)
5. 1B Matt Davidson (.228/.324/.450, 112 wRC+)
6. C Omar Narvaez (.284/.378/.436, 127 wRC+)
7. 2B Yoan Moncada (.221/.303/.396, 91 wRC+)
8. LF Nicky Delmonico (.229/.319/.410, 100 wRC+)
9. CF Adam Engel (.234/.277/.345, 70 wRC+)

Expect Anderson in the leadoff spot when CC Sabathia starts Wednesday while former Twins OF Ryan LaMarre could find his way into the lineup as well.

Rodon (Jon Durr/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Carlos Rodon
After battling injuries and high expectations for years, Carlos Rodon — the 2014 No. 3 overall pick — is starting to find a groove in his fourth season. In each of eight starts since the start of July, he’s tossed at least six innings while giving up no more than three runs. In fact, he’s only given up more than two runs once while going seven or more innings in five of the eight outings.

Interestingly, his K-BB rate has declined this season, but he’s held opponents to a .183 batting average while cutting his home run rate significantly. He has a 64 ERA- but a 100 FIP-.

Rodon works off a 93-mph fastball with an effective mid-80s slider he throws a fourth of the time and a changeup he goes to as a third offering.

Last Outing (vs. MIN on Aug. 22) – 6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Tuesday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP James Shields
Big Game James! James Shields was one of the worst pitchers in the American League in 2016-17, but he’s been a more average-ish workhorse this year. Still not worth trading Fernando Tatis Jr. for, but much more effective. He’s cut down on walks and home runs and sports a 4.59 ERA, much better than his 5.99 ERA as a Chicago pitcher before this season.

Shields uses his high-80s fastball a third of the time while working in a cutter, curveball and changeup each at least 18 percent. Only his changeup has a positive pitch value on Fangraphs, though his fastball hasn’t been quite the negative as it was in the past.

Last Outing (@ DET on Aug. 23) – 6.2 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 3 HR

Wednesday (7:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez
In a rematch of earlier this month, Reynaldo Lopez will face the task of staring down the veteran Sabathia. The young righty no-hit the Yankees until the sixth inning on Aug. 7 and allowed just one run over seven innings. However, since that start, he hasn’t completed six innings and has been lit up by the Tigers and Royals over three starts to the tune of a .321/.383/.566 batting line. Yikes.

Lopez works off his mid-90s fastball while going to a mid-80s slider and mid-80s changeup. He’ll also throw an occasional slow curve.

Last Outing (@ DET on Aug. 24) – 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 K

The Bullpen

The White Sox traded Luis Avilan to the Phillies last week, which means they are short another veteran arm in their pen. Still, the White Sox’s bullpen is much more respectable than you might expect. Here are their numbers since the All-Star break.

  • 4.56 ERA (21st in MLB)
  • 3.87 FIP (8th in MLB)
  • 1.1 WAR (9th in MLB)
  • 25.7% K rate (6th in MLB)
  • 10.0% BB rate (24th in MLB)
  • 0.99 HR/9 (6th in MLB)

LHP Jace Fry has picked up Chicago’s last two saves, but it seems to be more of a closer-by-committee situation. Fellow southpaws Hector Santiago and Xavier Cedeno get plenty of appearances, as do righties Juan Minaya and Jeanmar Gomez.

Yankees Connection

Only Yankees connection on the 40-man roster is Ian Clarkin, who was part of the Robertson-Kahnle-Frazier deal last season.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

  • Rodon has the ability to electrify, but the Yankees are quite competent against left-handed pitching, even without Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. The matchup between Rodon and Stanton should be fun.
  • Can Engel stop robbing everyone’s homers? Please and thank you.

8/6 to 8/8 Series Preview: Chicago White Sox

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Who do I have to pay for the White Sox to wear these unis every game? (David Banks/Getty Images)

After a demoralizing series with the Red Sox, the Yankees get their first taste of the lackluster White Sox this season. They’re the only AL team the Yankees have not yet played.

The Last Time They Met

The Bombers traveled to Chicago for a four-game set and had a disappointing split from June 26-29, 2017.

  • Jordan Montgomery and Masahiro Tanaka picked up wins in Games 1 and 3 of the series, backed by homers from Tyler Austin, Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius.
  • In Game 2, Luis Severino went toe-to-toe with Jose Quintana and the Yankees grabbed a 3-1 lead off Tommy Kahnle. However, Domingo German, Tyler Clippard and Dellin Betances blew it in a walk-off loss.
  • Game 4 was a lackluster 4-3 loss lowlighted by Dustin Fowler’s knee injury in what ended up being his only appearance as a Yankee.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

Yankees nemesis Miguel Gonzalez is out for the year with right shoulder surgery while reliever Nate Jones has a muscle strain in his throwing arm. Danny Farquhar is recovering from his brain hemorrhage in April.

Their Story So Far

At 41-70, the White Sox are surprisingly not in last place in the American League Central, though that’s simply because the Royals are historically bad. The White Sox are in the midst of a rebuild and surely look like it. They’re in the bottom 10 in WAR on offense and in the starting rotation, though their bullpen is in the middle of the pack.

Lineup We Might See

1. 2B Yoan Moncada (.222/.305/.400, 93 wRC+)
2. 3B Yolmer Sanchez (.244/.301/.383, 87 wRC+)
3. 1B Jose Abreu (.270/.331/.485, 119 wRC+)
4. DH Daniel Palka (.236/.281/.504, 109 wRC+)
5. RF Avisail Garcia (.269/.290/.523, 117 wRC+)
6. LF Nicky Delmonico (.232/.333/.377, 100 wRC+)
7. CF Leury Garcia (.280/.310/.394, 92 wRC+)
8. SS Tim Anderson (.246/.294/.405, 89 wRC+)
9. C Omar Narvaez (.282/.356/.425, 116 wRC+)

Matt Davidson will likely get the start at DH against CC Sabathia while Adam Engel often gets starts in center.

Lucas Giolito is really tall, folks. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (8:10 PM ET): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Dylan Covey
Covey is a second-year righty who, despite below-replacement-level performance, has received the chance to stick in the rotation for much of the season. He enters Monday with a 5.57 ERA (4.64 FIP) and a 10 percent walk rate. After throwing 8 1/3 innings of shutout ball three starts ago, he’s coming off two starts where he failed to get through five and allowed 6-7 runs.

Covey throws in the low-to-mid 90s and attacks with his sinking fastball that he throws 5/8ths of the time. He also works in a high-80s slider, mid-80s changeup and low-80s curveball. The sinker has been his best pitch.

Last Outing (vs. KC on Aug. 1) – 4.1 IP, 5 H, 7 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

Tuesday (8:10 PM ET: LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez
Lopez is coming off one of his best starts of the season as he held a lackluster Royals lineup to two runs over seven innings. However, that came after three starts in which he allowed a combined eight home runs, 18 runs and eight walks over 17 innings. That’s why after a strong start to the year, his ERA is up to 4.47 with a 5.17 FIP over 129 innings.

Like Covey, Lopez has a high walk rate (10.2 percent). He goes at hitters with his mid-90s fastball 60 percent of the time while relying on his slider and changeup as his main offspeed pitches.

Last Outing (vs. KC on Aug. 2) – 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K

Wednesday (8:10 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Lucas Giolito
If you’re sensing a trend with these young White Sox starters, it’s that they are wild. Giolito is the wildest of them all. He leads AL pitchers with 68 walks issued and 12 HBPs. That recipe is why he has a 5.97 ERA (5.92 FIP) over 120 2/3 innings. He also has allowed 19 homers and only struck out 77. Yikes.

The 6-foot-6 righty sits in the low 90s and works in a four-seam fastball and a sinker. He also contains a mid-80s slider, low-80s changeup and high-70s curveball in his arsenal.

Last Outing (@ TB on Aug. 3) – 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 6 K

The Bullpen

After trading Joakim Soria, the team doesn’t have a set closer with three different pitchers getting saves the last four games. Lefty Luis Avilan has been solid recently while fellow lefties Hector Santiago and Jace Fry get plenty of work. Juan Minaya, Jeanmar Gomez and Thyago Vieira are some of the main right-handers while former Rays lefty Xavier Cedeno has cooled off after a strong start to his season.

Yankees Connection

Danny Farquhar, who is on the DL, was one of two players the Yankees traded for Ichiro. MiLB OF Trayce Thompson was in the Yankees’ system for all of two days this year. Former NYY prospect Ian Clarkin is on the 40-man roster.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

  • Walks. There’s a chance these games take a while if the Yankees show patience and let this pitching staff beat itself.
  • Rookie Daniel Palka is a powerhouse with 17 homers in 270 plate appearances. Let’s see if he can have the same success vs. the Bombers.