The Yankees and Braves have a one-sided history, and that continued last week when the Bombers marched into Turner Field and left three days later having swept the series. Now the scene shifts to the Bronx and the Yankees get the DH back. After six games in NL parks, it’ll be nice not having to watch pitchers hit make outs.

What Have They Done Lately?

After getting swept by the Yankees last week, the Braves lost two of three to the Orioles at home. They went 3-6 on a nine-game homestand against AL East teams, which is pretty rough. Atlanta owns a 35-30 record and a +20 run differential, both the fifth best marks in the NL.

Offense

The Yankees held the Braves to just seven runs in three games last week, but don’t be fooled, Atlanta can hit. Their 298 runs are the third most in the NL and their 4.52 runs per game average is a top-ten mark in baseball. Atlanta’s offensive charge continues to be fueled by dynamite center fielder Michael Bourn (124 wRC+) and left fielder Martin Prado (131 wRC+), their combination atop the batting order. You’re not going to find a better twosome.

Catcher Brian McCann (101 wRC+) hit everything hard against the Yankees last week, but they got a little lucky and more than a few of those balls landed in gloves. I’d rather not see them risk it again. Second baseman Dan Uggla (128 wRC+) will show off his guns in the cleanup spot and third baseman Chipper Jones (120 wRC+) has been backing him up as the number five hitter. This will be his final series at Yankee Stadium barring an entirely possible World Series matchup. First baseman Freddie Freeman (95 wRC+) and right fielder Jason Heyward (115 wRC+) add some length to the lineup while shortstop Andrelton Simmons (153 wRC+ in limited action) adds speed at the bottom of the order.

As I mentioned last week, Atlanta has a really strong bench. Outfielder Matt Diaz mashes lefties (149 wRC+ vs. LHP), third baseman Juan Francisco has big power against righties (.237 ISO vs. RHP), and although corner guy Eric Hinske is having a poor season (46 wRC+), I still consider him a threat. David Ross (106 wRC+) is the best backup catcher in baseball and infielder Jack Wilson (3 wRC+) might be the worst player in the league. It’s definitely an impressive group of reserves, which is especially important in the NL.

I’m not entirely sure what the Braves will do with the DH spot this series. They platooned Diaz and Hinske there a few weeks ago, but that was when Chipper was on the DL. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jones at DH, Prado (or Francisco) at third, and then Diaz or Hinske in left. They could always let McCann have a DH day and start Ross as well. Lots of options thanks to that strong bench.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Mike Minor
Six days ago, the Yankees couldn’t touch Minor even though he came into the game as one of the worst two starting pitchers in the game. He still sports a 6.01 ERA and a 5.20 FIP despite those 7.1 innings of one-run ball, with mediocre strikeout (7.55 K/9 and 19.4 K%), walk (3.45 BB/9 and 8.9 BB%), and ground ball (34.0%) rates to boot. His 14 homers allowed are among the most in the NL. Minor is a four-pitch guy — low-90s fastball, mid-80s slider, low-80s changeup, upper-70s curve — and last week he killed the Yankees’ right-handed bats with soft stuff away. That same plan better not work a second time, the Bombers should make the necessary adjustments.

Tuesday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. RHP Tim  Hudson
Hudson came back from an ankle problem to strike out a season-high eight against the Yankees last week while doing the bare minimum to qualify for a quality start: three earned runs in six innings. That game pushed his season ERA up to 3.90 (3.09 FIP) and his strikeout rate up to 5.85 K/9 (15.8 K%). Hudson has always been about ground balls (57.1%) and limiting the walks (2.25 BB/9 and 6.1 BB%), as you know. He’s very fastball heavy, particularly with his upper-80s sinker. He’ll also mix in some mid-80s cutters and on rare occasions, a mid-70s curveball. Hudson will live and die by his sinker.

Wednesday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. RHP Tommy Hanson
The Yankees didn’t see Hanson last week and it’s fitting that he’s starting against Hughes considering they’ve both battled missing velocity in recent years. The 25-year-old right-hander has pitched to a 3.32 ERA this season despite the worst peripherals of his career: 7.64 K/9 (19.9 K%), 3.65 BB/9 (9.5 BB%), 1.11 HR/9, and 41.6% grounders. His four-seam fastball sits right at 90 and he backs it up with a low-80s slider and a low-70s curveball. His low-80s changeup has been all but shelved this year (1.0% of all pitches thrown). It’s worth noting that left-handed batters have absolutely annihilated Hanson this year (.385 wOBA) — likely due to the shelving of the changeup — while righties have struggled (.254 wOBA). Wouldn’t be a bad game to rest Derek Jeter and/or Alex Rodriguez.

Bullpen Status
Rookie right-hander Randall Delgado gave the Braves eight innings on Sunday, so their bullpen is pretty fresh. Closer Craig Kimbrel (0.97 FIP) has had two straight days off while setup man Jonny Venters (4.40 FIP) has had one day off as well as three of the last four. Lefty specialist Eric O’Flaherty (2.75 FIP vs. LHB) threw two pitches on Sunday and hadn’t worked in about a week prior to that. Manager Fredi Gonzalez’s top end-game arms are nice and rested for tonight and probably tomorrow as well.

Atlanta recently recalled righty Kris Medlen (3.15 FIP) after sending him down in an effort to stretch him out and get him into the rotation, but that plan has been scrapped for the time being and he is back in the bullpen. Right-handers Chad Durbin (5.07 FIP) and Cristhian Martinez (3.20 FIP) handle the middle innings while personal fave Anthony Varvaro (3.91 FIP in very limited action) replaced the recently released Livan Hernandez. Generic right-hander Todd Redmond is up as an extra arm until the Braves call up Jair Jurrjens to start this Friday. Too bad they couldn’t start one of these next three days, eh? Redmond has yet to appear in a big league game and I mean ever; his next appearance will be his MLB debut.

The Yankees used their bullpen quite heavily over the weekend, but Ivan Nova’s 7.2-inning performance yesterday helped a bit. Rafael Soriano and Boone Logan are the only two guys out there to have appeared in each of the last two games. Everyone else had Sunday off, though David Robertson did warm up. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for exact reliever usage. For the latest and greatest on the Atlanta nine, check out Capitol Avenue Club.

The last time the Yankees visited Atlanta, Brian Cashman took a trip down to visit a team that was struggling to score runs and had lost five of their previous six games. Frankie Cervelli responded with a big solo homer and Cashman’s club went on a major second half run that resulted in a World Championship. Thankfully, the Yankees don’t need that kind of wake-up call at the moment.

What Have They Done Lately?

The Braves have been quite streaky of late, losing eight in a row at the end of May before following it up with eight wins in their last ten games. They lost yesterday but took two of three against the Blue Jays this weekend. Overall, the Braves are 34-26 with a +31 run differential, he third and fourth best marks in the NL, respectively.

Offense

At 4.80 runs per game, the Braves are a top-five offense in baseball. Their 288 total runs are the third most in the NL and seventh most overall. The Yankees are seven runs back of Atlanta, though they have played one fewer game. It all starts at the top of the lineup with Michael Bourn (132 wRC+) and Martin Prado (140 wRC+), the best one-two lineup combination in baseball this season. The former has already set a career-high in homers (six) while the latter has set a career-high in steals (seven).

Brian McCann (95 wRC+) is having a down year by his standards but remains incredibly dangerous. Chipper Jones (132 wRC+) just returned from his latest DL stint, and those two tend to rotate in the three-hole. Dan Uggla (136 wRC+) pumps out 30+ homer seasons like clockwork (11 already this year) and handles cleanup duties. Youngsters Freddie Freeman (102 wRC+) and Jason Heyward (113 wRC+) add left-handed depth, so expect to see a lot of Boone Logan and Clay Rapada these next few days. Andrelton Simmons recently took over as the everyday shortstop and owns a 98 wRC+ in eight games.

Atlanta boasts a very strong bench/supporting cast, led by the best backup catcher in baseball: David Ross (111 wRC+). He gave McCann a rest yesterday and with three night games on the schedule, we might not see him this series. Juan Francisco (93 wRC+ vs. RHP) is the thump from the left side, Matt Diaz (130 wRC+) the thump from the right side. Former Yankee Eric Hinske is off to a slow start (69 wRC+ vs. RHP) but can still go deep at any time. Jack Wilson (-5 wRC+) is both the utility infielder and terrible. Here’s pretty much the only guy on the roster you don’t have to worry about.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: RHP Ivan Nova vs. RHP Randall Delgado
The 46th best prospect in baseball coming into the season according to Baseball America, the 22-year-old Delgado has pitched to a respectable 4.26 ERA (4.07 FIP) in eleven starts so far. His strikeout rates (7.19 K/9 and 18.6 K/9) are solid and his ground ball rate (52.6%) is fantastic, though like most young pitchers he tends to walk a bunch of guys (4.40 BB/9 and 11.4 BB%). Delgado sits in the low-90s with both of his fastballs (two and four-seamer), and his top secondary offering is a low-80s changeup. He’ll also throw an upper-70s curveball on occasion. Although he’s coming off a gem (two hits and one run in 6.1 IP against the Marlins), Delgado has only completed six full innings three times this year.

Tuesday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Mike Minor
Minor looked like one of the best young pitchers in the game in Spring Training, but by fWAR (-0.4) he’s been the second worst pitcher in baseball in the regular season. His 6.57 ERA is backed up by an unsightly 5.51 FIP, mostly because he’s extremely homer prone — 2.00 HR/9. Considering he plays in a pitcher’s park in the NL, that’s pretty terrible. Minor’s strikeout (7.86 K/9 and 19.9 K%) and walk (3.71 BB/9 and 9.4 BB%) rates are good enough, though he is a fly ball guy (33.2%). A true four-pitch pitcher, the southpaw will pitch off his low-90s fastball with a mid-80s slider, a low-80s changeup, and an upper-70s curveball. Minor has recorded more than 15 outs just once in his last six starts. Kinda hard to believe.

Wednesday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. RHP Tim Hudson
Fresh off a complete game shutout of the Marlins, Hudson received a cortisone shot to alleviate pain in his left ankle and skipped his previous start. Well, they didn’t really skip it. They just pushed him back three days. The 36-year-old* sinkerballer has pitched very well after spending the first few weeks of the season on the shelf with back problems, posting a 3.83 ERA (3.13 FIP) in eight starts. Hudson is all about getting ground balls (57.4%) and limiting walks (2.50 BB/9 and 6.7 BB%), not striking dudes out (5.17 K/9 and 13.8 K%). His sinker is mostly upper-80s these days, and he’ll also mix in mid-to-high-80s cutters and four-seamers. He’ll throw a curveball roughly once every 12 pitches, but otherwise it’s all fastball. Believe it or not, Hudson hasn’t faced the Yankees since way back in 2006.

* Can you believe Tim Hudson is 36 already? I feel like he just came up with a Athletics. He’s going to be 37 next month. Crazy.

Bullpen Status
Like the pre-injury Yankees, Atlanta’s strength is their lights out bullpen. Reigning NL Rookie of the Year Craig Kimbrel (1.13 FIP) is a strikeout machine (14.48 K/9 and 41.1 K%) in the ninth inning, though setup man Jonny Venters (4.17 FIP) has seen his ground ball rate drop in a big way this year. Of course, it’s still at 56.3% after 72.5% (!) last season. He’s had some homer issues in recent weeks. Middle men Eric O’Flaherty (2.74 FIP vs. LHB) and Cristhian Martinez (1.95 FIP vs. LHB) are both hell on lefties, though the latter is a right-hander. Chad Durbin (5.73 FIP) and Livan Hernandez (4.68 FIP) are the garbage time guys.

The Blue Jays did the Yankees a favor by roughing up rookie right-hander Julio Teheran yesterday, forcing Livan (37 pitches) and Martinez (47 pitches) to make lengthy relief appearances. Durbin threw 19 pitches as well. The Braves demoted Teheran after yesterday’s game and called up right-handed reliever Cory Gearrin (1.72 FIP in Triple-A) for some added bullpen depth. Kimbrel, Venters, and O’Flaherty each had yesterday off but have pitched in three of the last five days. When push comes to shove in the late innings, manager Fredi Gonzalez will have his go-to guys available tonight.

The Yankees are going to need some length out of Nova tonight. Rafael Soriano, Logan, Cory Wade, and Rapada have all pitched in each of the last two games while Cody Eppley has either pitched or warmed up in four straight. Wade and Rapada have appeared in three of four as well. I suspect we’ll see David Phelps make his first appearance in nine days tonight. Hopefully he’s not rusty. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for exact reliever usage details. For the latest and greatest on the Braves, we recommend Capitol Avenue Club.