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DotF: The Yankees beat the Red Sox in Triple-A too

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A couple quick notes to get us started:

  • RHP Freicer Perez’s season is over. He had surgery to remove bone spurs from his shoulder earlier this week, reports Matt Kardos. Perez has been on the disabled list since May 9th with shoulder inflammation. I suppose the good news is there was no structural damage. His labrum and rotator cuff are apparently in good shape. Still a bummer.
  • 1B Tyler Austin was placed on the Triple-A disabled list, the team announced. He left last night’s game with a back issue and saw the doctor today. There’s no word on the severity of the injury or a timetable for his return. Austin’s a call-up-able depth player, but now I guess Brandon Drury is second on the first base depth chart. Or third behind Neil Walker.
  • Baseball America (subs. req’d) released their midseason top 100 prospects list — they’re really overdoing it with the top 100 updates this year — and four Yankees made it: LHP Justus Sheffield (No. 23), OF Estevan Florial (No. 57), RHP Albert Abreu (No. 67), and RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (No. 71). Fun to see Johnny Lasagna on a top 100 list.
  • OF Trey Amburgey, IF Abi Avelino, LHP Caleb Frare, and RHP Dillon Tate were all named to the Double-A Eastern League All-Star Game, the league announced. The All-Star Game will be played July 11th at Arm & Hammer Park in Trenton. You can buy tickets right here.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (7-4 win over Pawtucket) the Yankees even beat the Red Sox in Triple-A tonight

  • 2B Tyler Wade: 2-3, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 K — he’s been great for the last month now
  • CF Clint Frazier: 1-5, 1 R, 1 2B, 2 RBI — here’s video of the double
  • RF Billy McKinney: 1-4, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 K
  • RHP Chance Adams: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR, 7/2 GB/FB — 60 of 90 pitches were strikes (67%) … let’s see if he can build on this blah blah blah yadda yadda yadda … sorry, but I’ve said that enough times this season
  • LHP Stephen Tarpley: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 2/0 GB/FB — ten of 19 pitches were strikes … just bumped up from Trenton

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DotF: Clarke Schmidt debuts following Tommy John surgery

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MLB.com posted their midseason top 100 prospects list today. Three Yankees made it: OF Estevan Florial (No. 39), LHP Justus Sheffield (No. 42), and RHP Albert Abreu (No. 65). 2B Gleyber Torres and 3B Miguel Andujar are no longer prospect eligible while RHP Chance Adams, who was No. 66 before the season, has dropped out of the top 100.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (3-1 loss to Rochester)

  • CF Tyler Wade: 2-4, 1 BB, 1 K — threw a runner out at second
  • 3B Brandon Drury: 0-4 — in a little 1-for-16 (.063) skid
  • 1B Tyler Austin: 1-2, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB
  • DH Billy McKinney: 0-4, 1 K — 3-for-21 (.143) in his last six games
  • SS Ronald Torreyes: 0-2, 1 RBI, 2 BB — two walks???
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 0-1, 3 BB
  • LHP Justus Sheffield: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 1 HR, 4/6 GB/FB — 65 of 95 pitches were strikes (68%) … gave up a three-run homer to a rehabbing Byron Buxton on a cement mixer slider (here’s video)
  • RHP Tommy Kahnle: 1 IP, zeroes, 3 K — nine of 12 pitches were strikes … 15/3 K/BB in 8.2 innings with the RailRiders

[Read more…]

Taking stock of the Yankees’ trade chips prior to the deadline

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Frazier. (Presswire)

We are less than six weeks away from the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline and already the trade winds are beginning to blow. The Rays sent Denard Span and Alex Colome to the Mariners a few weeks ago, and the Royals have since gotten in on the act by trading Jon Jay to the Diamondbacks and Kelvin Herrera to the Nationals. The sellers are starting to sell.

The Yankees, clearly, will be buyers prior to the trade deadline. Starting pitching is an obvious need. Adding a reliever could be worthwhile too. It is entirely possible other needs will pop up over the next few weeks as well. The Yankees have luxury tax payroll space and a deep cache of prospects, which allows them to buy basically whatever they want at the deadline. They can get anyone.

“Clearly starting pitching was always a concern. It’s definitely one of the areas we’re going to be looking at,” said Hal Steinbrenner to Scott Orgera at the quarterly owners’ meetings last week. “Purposely left a decent amount of money for just this. If we decide to go get a pitcher and if a pitcher’s available, I think we definitely have the flexibility that would allow me to do just that.”

While no player is ever truly untouchable, the Yankees do have some untouchables. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Luis Severino are as untouchable as it gets and Gleyber Torres has joined that group as well. “Come on now. I’ve got to walk around this city,” joke Brian Cashman to Erik Boland the other day when asked whether trading Torres is a possibility. Even with those guys off the table, the Yankees have plenty of trade chips. Let’s take stock.

The Andujar Question

Might as well start here. The Yankees reportedly made Miguel Andujar off-limits in trade talks over the winter and we’ve seen why so far this season. Even with a tiny little recent slump, Andujar is still hitting .290/.317/.519 (125 wRC+) with an 18.1% strikeout rate. A .229 ISO and an 18.1% strikeout rate is one hell of a combination for a rookie. We’ve also seen Andujar hit all types of pitching already.

That said, should Andujar be off-limits? You could argue his trade value is higher right now than ever before because he’s had some big league success and is still so young with so much team control. Andujar’s probably never going to walk much and his defense, which is serviceable, might never be better than, well, serviceable. I’m not saying the Yankees should give Andujar away. I love the kid. I’m just saying he’s not as untouchable as Torres.

The Top Chips

Drury. (The Citizens’ Voice)

Brandon Drury’s presence is the reason Andujar should not be untouchable. The Yankees have an MLB ready third baseman — their Opening Day third baseman, in fact — stashed in Triple-A. Drury is only 25 himself and, with another two weeks or so in the minors, his free agency will be pushed back one year. He’s hitting .360/.470/.529 (187 wRC+) with the RailRiders, and while that’s great, I’d expect a dude with two-plus years as an everyday big leaguer to wreck Triple-A pitching. That’s what Drury is doing.

Ostensibly, Drury does not have as much trade value as Andujar because he’s a little older and doesn’t come with as much team control. He is very clearly a trade chip though. The Yankees can’t keep him in Triple-A much longer. I mean, they could, but at some point there are diminishing returns. I’m not sure Drury is learning much or developing new skills right now. We are fast approaching the point where the Yankees either have to trade him or call him up before he starts to stagnate.

Among the guys we know the Yankees are willing to deal, Clint Frazier is the best trade chip. He’s 23, he’s been destroying Triple-A, he’s had some MLB success, and he’s not far removed from being a top prospect. The Yankees have a full outfield. As much as I would love the Yankees to get Frazier into the lineup on an everyday basis next year, they would be crazy to make him untouchable at the deadline. They reportedly offered him to the Pirates in a potential Gerrit Cole deal and he’s playing center field in Triple-A in what amounts to showcase. He’s available.

Justus Sheffield is, by no small margin, the top pitching prospect in the farm system. He was said to be on the team’s list of untouchables over the winter, though pitchers break and have such a high attrition rate — Sheffield has some command issues himself — that it would be silly to make him off-limits. If the Yankees have a chance to add a quality young pitcher like, say, Blake Snell, of course you trade Sheffield. We’re all hoping Sheffield one day turns into Snell! So trade him for the real Snell. The Yankees won’t deal Sheffield for a rental. But a young guy with years of team control? All bets are off.

The Second Tier

A few months ago Estevan Florial would’ve been among the top chips. Right now he’s coming back from wrist surgery — a fairly common wrist surgery, but still wrist surgery — and his swing-and-miss issues still exist. Because of that, I think he’s more of a second tier trade chip right. I don’t think Florial can headline a package for an impact pitcher at the moment. I also don’t think the Yankees will move him while his stock is down, unless it’s a deal they can’t refuse.

Many of the second tier guys are MLB ready or near MLB ready depth pieces. Tyler Wade. Billy McKinney. Chance Adams. None of them can headline a package for an impact player right now, but a deal for a lesser player? Or as the second or third piece in a larger trade? For sure. Wade is a legitimate shortstop and middle infielder with speed and those guys are hard to find. McKinney has a sweet swing and some power. I’m sure some teams still buy Adams as a starter. Good depth players who the Yankees can’t fit on the roster. Of course they’re available.

Among their tippy top prospects, I get the sense the Yankees are more willing to deal Albert Abreu than anyone. He’s had some injuries — this year’s appendectomy is nothing, but last year he had elbow and lat problems — and while the stuff is excellent, the command is far from it. Between the injuries, the lack of command, and the distance to the big leagues (he’s in High-A), Abreu strikes me as a top 100 caliber prospect the Yankees would be very open to moving. He has a long way to go to be the pitcher he has the potential to be and the Yankees are in win-now mode.

The Impending Rule 5 Draft Guys

Rogers. (Scranton Times-Tribunte)

When you have a great farm system, you’re going to lose players in the Rule 5 Draft. There aren’t enough roster spots to go around and the system is designed to give blocked players an opportunity. The Yankees lost eight total players in the last two Rule 5 Drafts (four each year), six more than any other team. Seven of those eight players came back — Luis Torres is the only exception — but still. You don’t want to risk losing players for nothing.

As a result, the Yankees have been active trading fringe 40-man roster players in recent years. That way they get something in return rather than potentially nothing. Zack Littell went to the Twins in the Jaime Garcia trade, and Ian Clarkin and Tito Polo went to the White Sox in the big Todd Frazier trade. They were traded weeks before they had to be added to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes. Here are this offseason’s notable Rule 5 Draft eligibles:

  • Catchers: None
  • Infielders: Diego Castillo, Dermis Garcia, Kyle Holder, Hoy Jun Park
  • Outfielders: Florial (I think)
  • Pitchers: Abreu, Adams, Sheffield, Cody Carroll, Juan De Paula, Freicer Perez (I think), Josh Rogers, Dillon Tate

Two names immediately jump out as potential “trade them before you have to add them to the 40-man roster” candidates: Rogers and Tate. Rogers is the left-handed Littell to me. Great minor league performance to date, good pitchability, not blow-you-away stuff. I don’t think it’s crazy to worry his lack of grounders (39.9% in Triple-A) and lack of swings and misses (9.0%) won’t translate well to Yankee Stadium, even as a lefty.

As for Tate, he was the fourth overall pick in the draft three years ago and he’s been very good this season, throwing 66.2 innings with a 3.11 ERA (3.38 FIP) at Double-A. You’d like to see more strikeouts (22.9%) from a dude with his stuff, but the walk (5.9%) and ground ball (50.8%) numbers are good. I wonder if this is a situation where his trade value exceeds his real life value. There’s a decent chance Tate is a reliever long-term. A good one, but still a reliever. Another club might view him as a no-doubt starter and fall in love with the whole “former No. 4 pick” thing.

Regardless of what the Yankees do with Rogers and Tate — right now I’d bet on Tate being added to the 40-man roster and Rogers not, assuming they aren’t traded — there is going to be some roster shuffling in the coming weeks. A few of these Rule 5 Draft eligibles could be moved prior to the trade deadline or soon after the season. Aside from Sheffield, there’s no stud here that will net you an impact big league player. These guys are for depth moves or to fill out a larger package.

The Lower Level Guys

Moreso than ever before, teams are taking very low level minor leaguers in trades. And I don’t mean low level as in not highly regarded. I mean the low levels of the minors. One of the prospects in the Kelvin Herrera trade was a 17-year-old in rookie ball. The second piece in last year’s Justin Wilson/Alex Avila trade was an 18-year-old in Single-A. The Yankees traded 20-year-old Blake Rutherford last year.

Teams are trying to acquire these talented young players before they break out into top prospects — the Yankees themselves have done this with the Nick Rumbelow trade (18-year-old Juan Then) and the Jake Cave trade (20-year-old Luis Gil) — and the Yankees have some of these players to offer, I think. Then is one. So is Saul Torres, Alex Vargas, Roansy Contreras, and Pablo Olivares. Guys like that are involved in trades more than ever before.

Could Luis Medina, Everson Pereira, or Ezequiel Duran be trade chips? They’re all teenagers and they’re all on the cusp of becoming excellent prospects, but of course they’re trade chips. The Yankees are a bona fide World Series contender. They’d be nuts to let a teenager in rookie stand in the way of a win-now trade. I’m not saying they should give those guys away! But they have value and they’re in demand, and they’re so far away from the big leaguers that they can’t be untouchable.

* * *

Trading players off your big league roster is not usually something a contending team does, but it is definitely possible. Neil Walker could go in a deal to offset salary a la Tyler Clippard last year, for example. I’d be surprised if the Yankees traded a reliever. I’d be even more surprised if they traded Sonny Gray, even in a deal for another starter. To me, the master plan is add a starter and get Gray on track, not replace Gray.

Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga are on the big league roster right now — they’re not just on the roster, they’re making starts every fifth day — and they’re trade chips for sure. German has shown promising swing-and-miss ability and everyone loves Johnny Lasagna, but they both have scary injury histories, and if they can help the Yankees get a potential difference-maker, of course they’ll trade ’em.

All of that is the long way of saying the Yankees have trade chips in all shapes and sizes. Once upon a time they were dealing from a pool of, like, three desirable prospects. Now they have pitchers, position players, MLB ready guys, far away guys, you name it. The Yankees can meet pretty much any asking price. That doesn’t mean they will. If the Yankees lose a bidding war this year, it’ll be because they don’t want to give up the pieces, not because they don’t have the pieces.

DotF: Cessa struggles in first rehab start in Tampa’s loss

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Some quick notes to get us started:

  • 3B Brandon Drury spoke to Mark Sanchez about his stint in Triple-A. “I wasn’t happy about (being sent down). Doing what I can right now so when I go back up I’m a better player. But this is going to make me better. Just gotta keep doing what I can do right now, be back up soon,” he said. Not sure what else he’s supposed to say in his situation.
  • Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen released an updated top 131 prospects list. Four Yankees made it: LHP Justus Sheffield (No. 30), RHP Albert Abreu (No. 50), OF Estevan Florial (No. 85), and RHP Luis Medina (No. 127). Both 2B Gleyber Torres and 3B Miguel Andujar have exceeded the 130 at-bat rookie limit and are no longer considered prospects.
  • The Yankees have released nine low level minor leaguers, reports Matt Eddy: OF Jonathan Amundaray, 2B Yeison Corredera, 3B Nate Coronado, C Samuel De La Cruz, C Malvin Del Orbe, C Roberto Espinosa, OF Victor Hernandez, OF Jhon Moronta, and C Eduardo Rodriguez. Amundaray is the most notable prospect of the bunch. He signed for $1.5M during the 2014-15 international spending spree.
  • In their 2018 draft recaps, Keith Law (subs. req’d) said C Anthony Seigler “projects as an everyday catcher with All-Star upside,” while Baseball America (subs. req’d) notes RHP Rodney Hutchison “saw his stuff tick up late in the season … If he improves his command he has interesting upside.”
  • If you’re still in draft mode after last week, both MLB.com and Baseball America (subs. req’d) put together super early 2019 mock drafts. Texas HS SS Bobby Witt Jr. is the top prospect in the draft class at the moment.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (10-3 win over Rochester)

  • LF Clint Frazier: 2-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 RBI — 20-for-58 (.345) with seven doubles, one triple, and one homer in his last 14 games now
  • CF Tyler Wade: 2-4, 3 R, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 SB — 12-for-32 (.375) with four doubles and a homer in his last seven games
  • 3B Brandon Drury: 1-4, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SB
  • 1B Ryan McBroom: 3-4, 2 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI — three homers in his last five games
  • RF Billy McKinney: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 BI — sixth homer of the season and his sixth homer in his last 12 games
  • SS Abi Avelino: 1-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 K — he was moved back up here when Ronald Torreyes was recalled
  • RHP David Hale: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HR, 1 WP, 8/2 GB/FB — 62 of 96 pitches were strikes (65%) … starting tonight presumably takes him out of the running for Friday’s start, which is when the Yankees say they’ll first use Masahiro Tanaka’s replacement
  • RHP Tommy Kahnle: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K — 12 of 15 pitches were strikes … he was reportedly up to 97 mph on the stadium gun, for what it’s worth

[Read more…]

DotF: McKinney goes deep again in Scranton’s win

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The 2018 High-A Florida State League All-Star Game will be played at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa this year, and on Friday the rosters were announced (North, South). Seven Yankees made it: IF Diego Castillo, C Francisco Diaz, RHP Nick Green, RHP Mike King, LHP Trevor Lane, RHP David Sosebee, and RHP Trevor Stephan. King and Stephan were recently promoted to Double-A, so they’ll be replaced on the roster. The All-Star Game is Saturday, June 16th. You can get tickets here. Some more notes:

  • So long, Oliver Perez. His minor league contract automatically included a June 1st opt-out given his service time, and he used it. The Yankees could’ve added Perez to the MLB roster and kept him, but nope. He was let go today. The 36-year-old southpaw had a 2.57 ERA (3.00 FIP) with 15 strikeouts and three walks in 14 innings with Triple-A Scranton.
  • Baseball America (subs. req’d) posted their monthly top 100 prospect list update today. IF Gleyber Torres (No. 3), LHP Justus Sheffield (No. 26), OF Estevan Florial (No. 48), and RHP Albert Abreu (No. 71) all made it. RHP Chance Adams (No. 78 last month) dropped out. Gotta say, updating a top 100 prospects list every month seems like overkill.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (4-0 win over Indianapolis)

  • SS Tyler Wade: 1-5, 2 K
  • CF Clint Frazier: 1-4, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K — 12-for-30 (.400) with four doubles, a triple, and a homer in his last seven games
  • 3B Brandon Drury: 2-4, 1 R, 1 BB — Triple-A on-base streak is up to 24 games
  • 1B Mike Ford: 2-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 2-4, 1 RBI, 1 K
  • RF Billy McKinney: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K — three homers in the last four games now
  • 2B Ronald Torreyes: 0-3, 1 BB — 3-for-18 (.167) in four games since being sent down
  • LF Mark Payton: 0-1, 3 BB — first game of the season after hurting his knee at the end of Spring Training and needing surgery (given the recovery timetable, meniscus?)
  • RHP Chance Adams: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 3/5 GB/FB — 62 of 93 pitches were strikes (67%) … first start without a walk since May 19th of last season (29 starts ago) … lots of ups and downs so far this season, this one’s an up
  • RHP Cody Carroll: 2 IP, zeroes, 2 K, 2/1 GB/FB — 15 of 24 pitches were strikes (63%) … 33/10 K/BB in 25.2 innings

[Read more…]

DotF: Loaisiga makes Double-A debut in Trenton’s win

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Baseball America updated their top 100 prospects list today. Most players moved a spot or two, largely because someone graduated or got hurt. SS Gleyber Torres is still ranks as the No. 6 prospect, but 3B Miguel Andujar made a big jump from No. 57 to No. 29. OF Estevan Florial (No. 36), LHP Justus Sheffield (No. 39), RHP Albert Abreu (No. 73), and Chance Adams (No. 78) all make the top 100 as well. Now here are some promotion notes from vice president of baseball operations Tim Naehring (via YES):

  • LHP Justus Sheffield is moving up to Triple-A Scranton. “He’s going to continue to develop, work on the fastball command,” said Naehring. Sheffield just started Tuesday, so his next start is a still a few days away. He spent last season with Double-A Trenton, hence the quick promotion.
  • RHP Luis Medina is “probably going to move on to Charleston soon,” said Naehring. Medina, who is only 19, is currently in Extended Spring Training. Soon he’ll be in full season ball.
  • RHP Nick Nelson is being promoted to High-A Tampa, according to Naehring. Nelson spent all of last season with Low-A Charleston, so it’s no surprise he’s getting a quick promotion.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (4-3 win over Pawtucket, walk-off style)

  • RF Tyler Wade: 1-4, 1 3B — played center field earlier this week, and now he’s in right field
  • SS Thairo Estrada: 0-3, 2 K, 1 HBP
  • 3B Brandon Drury: 2-3, 1 BB — here’s video of his first single and second single … Matt Kardos says the Yankees are moving Drury’s rehab to Trenton tomorrow because the RailRiders are about to go on the road trip, and the Yankees want him close to New York so he can continue getting treatment and whatnot
  • 1B Mike Ford: 1-4
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K — four homers in 20 games
  • CF Clint Frazier: 1-4, 1 R, 1 3B, 2 K — threw a runner out at third … this was his first start in center field since 2016, when he was still with the Indians … here’s video of the triple … after the triple, he scored the game-winning run on DH Ryan McBroom’s walk-off sac fly
  • LHP Nestor Cortes: 3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 2/1 GB/FB — 37 of 57 pitches were strikes (65%)
  • RHP J.P. Feyereisen: 2.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 1/1 GB/FB — 25 of 36 pitches were strikes (695) … 10/7 K/BB in 13 innings

[Read more…]

The Year Ahead In the Farm System [2018 Season Preview]

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Florial. (Presswire)

A year ago at this time we were all still kinda in awe of what Brian Cashman and the Yankees were able to accomplish in a relatively short period of time. Between trades and development, the Yankees built one of the top farm systems in the game, one with high-end prospects and depth. We were still waiting to see whether that rebuilt farm system translated to success on the field though.

Fast forward to this spring, and the Yankees are coming off an ALCS appearance thanks largely to those prospects. Players like Aaron Judge, Chad Green, and Jordan Montgomery graduated to the big leagues last year and became key contributors. Others like Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Blake Rutherford were used as trade chips to land impact big leaguers with multiple years of control.

The Yankees were able to turn that highly regarded farm system into an enviable big league core, and, best of all, the farm system still ranks among the best in baseball. Look where the various scouting publications ranked the system this spring:

That is the good stuff. According to Baseball America, the Dodgers have the second best farm system among 2017 postseason teams. They ranked their system eighth. The Yankees have a top prospect pipeline on par with hard-tankers like the Padres and Braves and White Sox, except the Yankees are not tanking. They contended last year and there is every reason to believe they’ll contend again this year. Let’s preview the year ahead in the minors.

Top Prospects Who Could Help In 2018

Before the Brandon Drury trade and Neil Walker signing, the Yankees brought three top prospect infielders to Spring Training and ostensibly gave them a chance to win the big league second and third base openings. IF Tyler Wade was able to win a big league job anyway. 3B Miguel Andujar and IF Gleyber Torres will begin the season back with Triple-A Scranton for the time being. They’ll be up soon enough. Here’s our season preview for Andujar, Torres, and Wade.

Aside from the kid infielders, the top prospect most likely to help the Yankees this summer is RHP Chance Adams, a divisive prospect who doesn’t necessarily receive the greatest reviews from scouts despite stellar minor league numbers. Adams had another strong minor league season last year, throwing 150.1 innings with 2.45 ERA (3.70 FIP) at Double-A and Triple-A. Spring Training didn’t go so well (4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 2 HR), but whatever, it happens.

Larry Rothschild recently told Brendan Kuty that Adams’ arm strength wasn’t quite where the Yankees hoped it would be this spring, and hopefully that’s just a “he threw by far the most innings of his career last year and is taking a little longer to get to full strength than expected” thing and not a “he’s out of shape” or “he’s hiding an injury” thing. “He has a pretty good track record, so we’re not too concerned,” said minor league pitching coordinator Danny Borrell to Kuty.

Either way, Adams will begin the season back with Triple-A Scranton, and it stands to reason he will be among the top call-up options when a starter is needed. Domingo German and Luis Cessa have big league time and are on the 40-man roster, but if Adams performs and gets his arm strength to where it needs to be, the Yankees will give him a shot. They’ll go with whoever they believe gives them the best chance to win, and if they think it’s Adams, he’ll get the call.

Top Prospects Who (Probably) Won’t Help In 2018

Sheffield. (Presswire)

Never say never, but it seems likely to me LHP Justus Sheffield, the top pitching prospect in the system, will spend the year in the minors after being limited to 98 innings by an oblique injury last season. Sheffield showed the goods in Spring Training (mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider) and also showed the warts (lack of command) as well. Still, as a power southpaw with three pitches (he also has a pretty good changeup), Sheffield is rightfully considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. If he helps the Yankees at all in 2018, it’ll be late in the season.

OF Estevan Florial, who some rank as the second best prospect in the system behind Gleyber, almost certainly will not reach the big leagues this season. Florial turned 20 in November and he has played only 19 games at High-A. More High-A time and a midseason promotion to Double-A is in the cards this year. Maybe a late-season stint at Triple-A. Maybe. Florial hit .219/.324/.406 this spring and impressed everyone with his athleticism and raw tools. From Bryan Hoch:

“He’s one of those guys that I’m really excited to see these first couple of weeks, because he’s going to get some opportunities to play,” (Aaron) Boone said. “He’s going to log some at-bats. We just want to get him as comfortable as possible. When we see him do that, even though that [triple] was the first one, it’s not a surprise to us. The talent is real.”

As with Sheffield (command), Florial has a flaw in his game that keeps him from being a truly elite prospect. He has problems making contact. His 31.1% strikeout rate last season was 29th highest among the 743 minor leaguers with at least 400 plate appearances, and Florial has the most trouble with non-fastballs. Double-A caliber arms gave him fits in the Arizona Fall League. Florial didn’t play a ton of baseball growing up and the Yankees hope he’ll make more contact as he gains experience. We’ll keep track of that in the Prospect Watch this year.

In RHP Dillon Tate, the Yankees have a former high draft pick (fourth overall in 2015) who didn’t quite take to some mechanical issues the Rangers tried to implement, but has since rebuilt prospect stock after being told by the Yankees to go back to whatever worked in college. He was slowed by a shoulder issue last year but he did reach Double-A by the end of the season, so I guess that makes him a call-up candidate this year. I think there might be a few too many names ahead of him on the depth chart. The Yankees are having Tate work on a two-seam fastball at the moment, a pitch that could be a real difference-maker for him.

RHP Albert Abreu and RHP Freicer Perez are two ultra-talented Single-A kids who we’re not going to see this year. (Abreu has been slowed by an appendectomy and will probably start the season on the disabled list anyway.) Perez really broke out last year — he had a 2.12 ERA (3.19 FIP) with 25.3% strikeouts in his final 18 starts and 101.2 innings last summer — and is poised to be the next great Yankees pitching prospect. Abreu battled injury problems last year but has a golden arm. These two are a Big Deal now and they’ll be a Very Big Deal next spring.

Secondary Prospects Likely To Help In 2018

Top prospects get all the attention and understandably so, but turning secondary prospects into regulars is often what separates good teams from great teams. Look what Green and Montgomery did for the Yankees last year. They were nowhere near any top prospect lists, yet both played very important roles for a postseason team.

This season the Yankees have several depth pitching prospects who figure to see MLB time, most notably RHP Domingo German, the presumed sixth starter at the moment. RHP Gio Gallegos, RHP Ben Heller, and RHP Jonathan Holder are all going to get bullpen time at some point. You watch. OF/1B Billy McKinney figures to spend the season as an up-and-down bat. They’re all covered in our depth pitchers and depth position players previews.

IF Thairo Estrada was expected to be in the infield mix before the Drury and Walker trades, and while he always felt like a long shot for a big league job, he was removed from the competition before it even started. Estrada was shot in the hip during a botched robbery in January and he did not play at all this spring. The good news is he has resumed working out and other baseball activities, but Thairo won’t start the regular season on time. He’s on the 40-man roster and we could see him later in the season.

Also on the 40-man: RHP Domingo Acevedo. He spent most of last season at Double-A and that makes him a call-up candidate. That said, Acevedo was shut down late last year with a shoulder problem, and his rehab delayed the start of his offseason throwing problem. He spent Spring Training building arm strength and may not be ready to pitch come minor league Opening Day. Still, Acevedo is on the 40-man, he’s a big power arm, and spot duty in the big leagues could be in the cards this season.

Among non-40-man players, RHP Cody Carroll and RHP Brady Lail stand out as potential bullpen options at some point, a la Caleb Smith and Tyler Webb last year. Those “huh, didn’t think we’d see him this year” guys. Carroll is arguably the top bullpen prospect in the system and he can really bring it, with an upper-90s fastball and a good slider. Lail is moving to the bullpen full-time this year and he could sneak on to the MLB roster at some point. There’s always one or two surprise call-ups each year. I’d bet on Lail being one in 2018.

Breakout Candidates

Loaisiga. (Getty)

The Yankees have a deep farm system, especially with lower level arms, and that means they have plenty of breakout candidates. The best of the bunch is RHP Luis Medina, an 18-year-old with a triple digit fastball and two knockout secondary pitches (curveball and changeup). Can he figure out command? Maybe! If he does, Medina will be a no-doubt top 100 prospect at this time next year. Maybe even top 50.

A case can be made RHP Jonathan Loaisiga broke out last season, but he did only throw 32 innings, so I’m including him here. Johnny Lasagna is finally healthy after years of injuries and he goes out to the mound with three quality pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and fearlessly pounds the zone. The Yankees like Loaisiga enough that they put him on the 40-man over the winter, and if he stays healthy and pitches a full season, he could rank among the top prospects in the system by the end of the year.

3B Dermis Garcia and OF Canaan Smith are two bat first prospects with power — in Garcia’s case, it’s mammoth power that grades as a true 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale — and plate discipline, so while they have a high bar to clear to be considered top prospects, they have the talent to reach that level, Dermis in particular. SS Hoy Jun Park has tremendous tools and, now that he has a few years of minor league experience under his belt, this could be the season he really starts to take off.

The deep sleepers are RHP Deivi Garcia, a short controlled challenged righty with a hellacious curveball, RHP Juan Then, a just turned 18-year-old righty with pitching know-how well beyond his years, and C Saul Torres, a standout defensive catcher with much more offensive potential than last year’s .174/.230/.309 (45 wRC+) rookie ball batting line would lead you to believe. Also, RHP Clarke Schmidt is due back from Tommy John surgery. He’s not a traditional breakout candidate, but a healthy return will see his prospect stock rise considerably.

Prospects I Am Irrationally Excited About

We all have our personal favorites. Among mine is IF Kyle Holder, a slick-fielding shortstop who might not hit long-term, though he did put up a .355/.400/.458 (154 wRC+) batting line in his final 51 games last season. His glove alone gives him a chance to play in the big leagues. I think there’s enough left-handed contact ability there for him to be a regular on a second division team down the road, and that makes him a likely trade chip for the Yankees.

RHP Trevor Stephen has vicious stuff and may be best suited for a bullpen role long-term. The Yankees are going to use him as a starter for the time being because of course they should. If they ever move him to the bullpen, Stephan could rocket to MLB. Same with RHP Nick Nelson, who didn’t start pitching full-time until turning pro as a fourth round pick in 2016. He has a mid-90s fastball and the type of swing-and-miss curveball that could carry a pitcher a long way.

Other like OF Isiah Gilliam, a switch-hitting outfielder with power, and IF Diego Castillo, a contact-oriented hitter with strong defensive chops, are among my personal favorites. I’m also very interested to see what RHP Matt Sauer does in his first full pro season. He’s probably going to start 2018 back in Extended Spring Training — same with Medina and Then — meaning he won’t pitch in actual games until the short season leagues begin in June, but that’s okay. Still count him among guys I’m looking forward to seeing this year.

Will The Yankees Trade Any Of These Guys?

Frazier. (Presswire)

Of course they will. When you have a deep farm system, you have a 40-man roster crunch, and that applies to the Yankees again this year. Last year Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects Ian Clarkin and Zack Littell were traded before having to be added to the 40-man roster. Other fringe 40-man roster guys like Garrett Cooper, Caleb Smith, Nick Rumbelow, and Ronald Herrera were traded for prospects years away from Rule 5 Draft eligibility.

Among the notable prospects who will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season are Hoy Jun Park, Kyle Holder, Diego Castillo, and Dermis Garcia. I could see the Yankees dangling all of them as trade bait. Guys like Billy McKinney, Gio Gallegos, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, and the Domingos (Acevedo and German) may not be long for the 40-man roster. I could see them being moved in Cooper/Rumbelow/Herrera style trades before the end of the season.

The Yankees declared Torres, Andujar, Sheffield, and Florial off-limits in trade talks over the winter — or at least they did for Gerrit Cole — though I suppose the Walker and Drury pickups could’ve changed things. I imagine Andujar, for example, is more expendable than he was three or four months ago. In that case, the best trade chips in the farm system are Clint Frazier (technically no longer a prospect), Adams, Tate, Abreu, and possibly Andujar.

Where Does The System Go From Here?

The Yankees had a top tier farm system last spring and they have a top tier farm system right now, though the composition of the farm system is much different now than it was a year ago. Last spring the system was built around high-end position players close to the big leagues like Judge, Torres, and Frazier. Now the farm system is built around pitching, especially at the lower levels.

Pitchers are inherently more risky than position players, especially lower level pitchers. Pitchers get hurt, they don’t develop that third pitch, so on and so forth. Because of that, the farm system carries considerably more risk now than it did a year ago. And with the anticipated graduations of Torres, Andujar, and Wade, as well as others like Adams and German, plus any trades, the smart money is on the farm system taking a hit over the next 12 months.

And you know what? That is perfectly fine. When you have a great farm system, the goal is to turn it into a great Major League team, and the Yankees are in the middle of doing that. Baseball America ranked the Cubs’ system first in 2015 and 28th in 2018. Think Theo Epstein and Cubs fans care? Nope. Going from a great system to a bad system because of injuries and poor performance is one thing. Going from a great system to a bad system because all your top prospects became great big leaguers is another. That’s what every team is striving for, and the Yankees are in the process of doing exactly that.