2017 ALCS Archives - Page 5 of 6

2017 ALCS Game Two: Yankees at Astros

October 14, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Once again, the Yankees are down 0-1 in a postseason series. They’ve lost Game One in each of their last three postseason series, you know. They were swept by the Tigers in the 2012 ALCS, but did come back to win the ALDS against the Indians this year. Dating back to the 1996 World Series, the Yankees have lost Game One of a postseason series 14 times. They’re 10-4 in those series.

That’s not to make light of last night’s loss, of course. Losing Game One stinks. Historically, the team that wins Game One of a best-of-seven has gone on to win the series 64.1% of the time. It’s just a reminder that hey, losses happen, and dropping Game One of the series doesn’t mean it’s over. The Yankees were thoroughly dominated by Dallas Keuchel and the Astros still needed 37 pitches from their closer to nail down the 2-1 win.

This afternoon the Yankees will have Luis Severino, their best starting pitcher, on the mound to try to even up the series. The Astros blasted Severino when they faced him back in May. They also blasted Masahiro Tanaka literally the same day as part of a doubleheader, but that didn’t mean much last night. The bullpen is rested and ready to go. The Yankees may only need five from Severino. Hopefully he gives them more. Here are the starting lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. SS Didi Gregorius
4. C Gary Sanchez
5. 1B Greg Bird
6. 2B Starlin Castro
7. CF Aaron Hicks
8. 3B Todd Frazier
9. DH Chase Headley
RHP Luis Severino

Houston Astros
1. CF George Springer
2. RF Josh Reddick
3. 2B Jose Altuve
4. SS Carlos Correa
5. LF Marwin Gonzalez
6. 1B Yulieski Gurriel
7. DH Carlos Beltran
8. 3B Alex Bregman
9. C Brian McCann
RHP Justin Verlander

It is another hot and sunny day in Houston. The Minute Maid Park roof will be closed again. Game Two will begin at 4pm ET and FOX will have the broadcast. That’s regular old FOX. Not FOX Sports 1. Enjoy.

Scouting Game Two of the ALCS: Justin Verlander

October 14, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Last night, in Game One of the ALCS, the Yankees were unable to solve Dallas Keuchel en route to 2-1 loss. The good news: the Yankees were overwhelmed by Keuchel and still made it a very close game. The bad news: the Yankees lost and are now down 0-1 in the ALCS. I know they came back from down 0-2 against the Indians, but they don’t want to make a habit of having to come back in series.

On the mound for the Astros in Game Two this afternoon will be former Tigers ace Justin Verlander, who came over in an August 31st trade, literally minutes before the deadline to add players and have them be postseason eligible. Overall, Verlander had a 3.36 ERA (3.84 FIP) in 206 innings this season, including a 1.06 ERA (2.09 FIP) in five starts and 34 innings with Houston. His strikeout (25.8%), walk (8.5%), and grounder (33.5%) rates were typical Verlander. He’s always been a weak fly ball/pop-up guy. Not a ground ball pitcher.

Verlander is starting Game Two of the ALCS rather than Game One because he came out of the bullpen in Game Four of the ALDS on Monday. It was his first career relief appearance. He never pitched out of the bullpen in college or the minors. Verlander threw 40 pitches in 2.2 innings in that relief appearance, and will be on regular rest this afternoon. Let’s take a look at the former Cy Young winner, shall we?

History Against The Yankees

Verlander has been around a while and he has a history with most of the Yankees, though, weirdly, he did not face them at all this season. The Yankees missed him during both regular season series against the Tigers, and by time he was traded to Houston, the Yankees were already done playing the Astros.

The Yankees faced Verlander in the 2006 ALDS, the 2011 ALDS, and the 2012 ALCS. He allowed nine runs in 22.2 total innings those series. And of course that means nothing now, because he’s facing the 2017 Yankees, not the 2006 or 2011 or 2012 Yankees. Here is what New York’s hitters have done against Verlander the last three seasons:

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Todd Frazier	14	14	4	0	0	2	2	0	5	.286	.286	.714	1.000
Brett Gardner	7	7	4	0	0	1	2	0	1	.571	.571	1.000	1.571
Didi Gregorius	6	5	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	.400	.500	1.200	1.700
Chase Headley	6	6	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.667	1.000
Starlin Castro	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Jacoby Ellsbury	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.333	.000	.333
Aaron Hicks	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Total	42	40	12	1	1	4	5	2	9	.300	.333	.675	1.008

Huh. Well how about that. Verlander has only faced seven Yankees currently on the ALCS roster within the last three years. He’s never faced Aaron Judge or Gary Sanchez. The head-to-head numbers in the table are pretty top heavy — all of the success is tied up in four players — but that’s fine. If nothing else, maybe the recent history makes the Yankees feel more confident going into Game Two tonight.

In his Game One start against the Red Sox, Verlander allowed two runs on six hits and two walks in six innings, striking out three. A good performance but not a dominant performance. He did allow a two-run home run in his 2.2 innings relief appearance in Game Four. Weirdly, he walked two and did not strike out a batter in that game.

Current Stuff

A few years ago it looked like Verlander was losing it. His fastball was trending down and after years of throwing 220+ innings a season, it was understandable. It happens to everyone. Then Verlander’s stuff bounced back — his velocity isn’t all the way back, but it is close — and he went back to being a bonafide ace. Go figure.

Here is Verlander’s average velocity over the years, via Brooks Baseball. It’s not often you see a pitcher over 30 lose velocity, then regain it all of a sudden. At least not without there being an injury involved.

These days Verlander’s fastball will sit in the 94-97 mph range and touch 99 mph. His days of hitting 100 mph each and every time out are pretty much over, though 99 mph is still plenty good. And besides, with postseason adrenaline, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 100 mph at some point today. Verlander’s secondary stuff is as good as ever. He still has that great overhand curveball, as well as a quality slider and changeup. Even at age 34, Verlander still brings some of the best raw stuff in baseball to the mound.

Here, via Brooks Baseball, is Verlander’s pitch selection against righties and lefties:

When you throw in the mid-to-upper-90s for 100+ pitches a game, why not lean on your fastball? Verlander sure does. Also, the fact Verlander has two quality breaking balls makes it awfully tough to zero in at the plate. You can’t go up there and sit fastball-slider as a righty or fastball-changeup as a lefty. The curveball is an equalizer. He can and will use it at pretty much any time.

If you’re reading this, chances are you’ve seen Verlander before, so perhaps embedding a video is a waste of time. I’m going to do it anyway. Here is every pitch from Verlander’s Opening Day start against the White Sox. He allowed two runs in 6.2 innings.

It seems counterintuitive, because you want to get his pitch count up as quickly as possible, but being aggressive and swinging early in the count is a good strategy against Verlander. He throws a ton of fastballs early in the count, and you don’t want to fall behind and have to deal with that nasty breaking stuff. Plus you know Verlander is going to end up throwing 100-something pitches and getting the ball into the sixth inning away. If he throws a fastball over the plate on the first or second pitch, swing away. You might not get anything to hit otherwise.

Platoon Splits

For the first time in a very long time, Verlander had a platoon split this season. From 2011-16, a stretch of nearly 1,300 innings, Verlander had a reverse split. He was better against lefties than righties. This year, lefties had more success than righties. The numbers:

2011-16 vs. RHB: .246/.295/.387 (.299 wOBA) with 22.2 K%, 5.5 BB%, 39.6 GB%
2011-16 vs. LHB: .209/.273/.339 (.271 wOBA) with 25.0 K%, 7.7 BB%, 37.5 GB%

2017 vs. RHB: .221/.277/.337 (.267 wOBA) with 23.4 K%, 6.8 BB%, 35.2 GB%
2017 vs. LHB: .219/.304/.408 (.304 wOBA) with 28.4 K%, 10.4 BB%, 31.3 GB%

Fundamentally, Verlander is the same pitcher this year as the last few years. Yeah, he’s lost a little velocity and maybe some movement as well due to normal age-related decline, but there is no glaring reason that would explain the sudden platoon split. It’s not like his changeup suddenly went from great to terrible. I suspect this is a one-year blip and sample size noise more than an actual change to Verlander’s skills.

Can The Yankees Run On Him?

Yes indeed. Not only do the Astros have terrible throwing catchers, but runners also went 9-for-10 stealing bases against Verlander during the regular season. All while he was with the Tigers, weirdly. No one tried to steal against him following the trade to Houston. Verlander has a history of allowing stolen bases because he’s a big guy with a slower than usual delivery to the plate, even from the stretch. The Yankees can and should run against him.

* * *

This is not the Cy Young and MVP winning Justin Verlander of old. He’s still very, very good though. Verlander, as always, will be a difficult assignment. He is not going to get serious Hall of Fame consideration by accident. If he gives you a fastball in the zone, you better hit it, because his secondary pitches are damn near untouchable.

Thoughts prior to Game Two of the 2017 ALCS

October 14, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Last night the Yankees opened the ALCS with a Game One loss (again) to Dallas Keuchel (again). Keuchel’s annoying, isn’t he? He’s the new Cliff Lee, who was the new Chuck Finley. The Yankees will look to even the series at a game apiece this afternoon. This group is pretty resilient. They’ve bounced back from tough losses all year. That didn’t even feel like a tough loss last night anyway, did it? Not to me. Whatever. Here are some thoughts.

1. Joe Girardi learned from the non-challenge fiasco in Game Two of the ALDS! Following the game last night, Girardi said the Yankees thought Greg Bird was out on the play at the plate, but he decided to challenge it anyway. His exact quote: “Well, we thought he was out. But God knows I’m not doing that again.” By “that again” he means not challenging a big play. Just because replay guy Brett Weber may not see enough evidence to overturn something doesn’t mean the replay crew in New York will see it the same way. To paraphrase Wayne Gretzky, 100% of the calls you don’t challenge don’t get overturned. Bird getting thrown out was a huge play in the game. To wit:

Bird is thrown out: 15.7% win probability for the Yankees
Bird is called safe: 32.1% win probability for the Yankees

Big swing! It’s not just that the run scores, remember. The run scores and the inning continues with two men on base for Gary Sanchez, who was seeing Keuchel for the third time. The challenge didn’t work, but I’m glad Girardi asked for the review. This is the kind of challenge I’ve been hoping to see more of over the years. It’s a bang-bang play that could go either way and have a big impact on the game. And if it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work. There’s no bonus points for unused challenges. Shoot your shot.

2. The Yankees pitched the Astros very well in Game One. Masahiro Tanaka did not have his Grade-A splitter, yet he still held Houston to four singles in six innings, three of which bounced before passing the pitcher’s mound. The ‘Stros have a great lineup and the Yankees held them to two runs on six singles and one walk in the game. Continue to do that and things will be just fine the rest of the series. As a team, the Yankees have a 3.09 ERA (3.23 FIP) in the postseason so far. Aside from Game Two of the ALDS, which was a disaster for multiple reasons, they’ve held the Indians and Astros to no more than six hits in their five meetings. That’ll work. The pitching has been phenomenal in the postseason so far, even with Luis Severino’s dud in the Wild Card Game and Sonny Gray’s dud in Game One of the ALDS. I feel like this is not being talked about enough. The pitching staff has been on point.

3. Good to see Chad Green get back into a game and look like regular season Chad Green last night. He gave up the grand slam to Francisco Lindor in Game Two of the ALDS and hadn’t been heard from since. It seemed like he earned a temporary demotion out of the Circle of Trust™. And, given how flat his stuff looked in that Game Two meltdown, it was fair to wonder whether he hit a wall after appearing in so many games and throwing so many high-leverage innings this year. Green had six days off between appearances and it seems to have served him well. He was throwing fire and missing bats last night. That’s huge. A back-to-normal Chad Green makes the Yankees that much more dangerous, especially since these two teams will play three games in three days next week. Girardi won’t be able to ride David Robertson and Aroldis Chapman as much those days, so someone else will have to pick up the slack. Green will be one of those someones.

The DH situation in picture form. (Ronald Martinez/Getty)

4. Seriously, what in the world are the Yankees going to do at DH? Matt Holliday returned to the lineup last night and went 0-for-3 on seven pitches. Jacoby Ellsbury pinch-hit for him in a one-run game in the ninth inning, which I don’t understand at all. At least Holliday has a chance to run into a fastball and hit a game-tying home run. He did it against Craig Kimbrel right after the All-Star break. Remember that? Holliday also took a right-hander deep in the regular season finale. Holliday’s upside there is a game-tying homer. Ellsbury’s upside is … a catcher interference? Anyway, including last night, the DH spot is now an unfathomable 0-for-24 with three walks and nine strikeouts in the postseason. (And one catcher interference.) It’s not like these guys are hitting into bad luck. The at-bats aren’t all that competitive. There’s a decent chance the best DH candidates right now are Tyler Austin, Clint Frazier, and Miguel Andujar, but none of them are on the ALCS roster. Do the Yankees keep running Holliday and Ellsbury and Chase Headley out there and hope one of them finds it? What about Ronald Torreyes? Do you consider him at some point? Torreyes might be worth a try. Oh geez, I can’t believe I just said that. I know one thing for sure: the Yankees are going to have a very hard time advancing if this whole Designated Out-Maker thing continues. The Astros are too good.

5. A #thingtowatch in Game Two: Severino’s fastball against the Astros. They’re a great fastball hitting team. During the regular season they hit .281 (5th in MLB) with a .229 ISO (4th in MLB) against four-seam fastballs. They crush fastballs. (The league averages were a .269 AVG and a.155 ISO against four-seamers in 2017.) I get the sense Severino is going to rely on his slider quite a bit this afternoon. This isn’t the kind of team you can beat with the heater only. And with Robertson and Chapman ready to go (and Tommy Kahnle too), presumably for more than one inning each, the Yankees might only need Severino to go through the lineup twice. Hopefully he dominates and it’s not a problem. But just watch the Astros and how they handle Severino’s fastball. We might see more foul balls and comfortable swings against the pitch than usual because they’re such a good fastball hitting team.

6. Is it weird that I think (hope?) the Yankees will have more success against Justin Verlander in Game Two than they did against Keuchel in Game One because he’s more conventional? Don’t get me wrong, Verlander is still very good. But Keuchel is an outlier in today’s game. He’s a finesse pitcher who doesn’t crack 90 mph with his fastball all that often. Keuchel succeeds by pounding the bottom of the zone with pitches that cut, sink, fade, you name it. Verlander is a more conventional mid-90s fastball guy with a nasty breaking ball. The Yankees just finished a series with the Indians, who have a rotation full of Verlander types. That’s what they’re used to seeing. Not finesse pitchers like Keuchel. Hopefully the return to normalcy (so to speak) leads to more success for the offense today.

Yankees 1, Astros 2: Keuchel quiets the Yankees in Game 1

October 13, 2017 by Sung-Min Kim Leave a Comment

Oh well, a loss happens. Dallas Keuchel, who has a very well-documented history of dominating the Yankee lineup, did it again tonight, going 7 scoreless while striking out 10 on the way. On the other side of the mound, Masahiro Tanaka shrugged off his road woes to give the Yankees a chance to win. Greg Bird finally gave New York a run in the top of the 9th but it was not enough and too late. Astros won the Game 1 2-1 and the Yankees will look to bounce back tomorrow versus Justin Verlander. Let’s recap this thing.

The pitching duel

In the postseason where the bullpen usage has dominated headlines, tonight was very much about the starting pitching. Keuchel and Tanaka both displayed what they can do. Masahiro didn’t even really display his splitter – which worked so effectively against the Indians – yet he came away with a solid outing. In fact, he did not allow a hit for the first 3.1 innings. It seemed like the battle of who blinks first and it turned out to be the Yankees.

Well, New York came maybe a few feet of air away from scoring two in the top of the fourth. With two outs, Starlin Castro reached on base with a soft single to left. Aaron Hicks got a fastball up the middle and drove it deep to center. It looked like it had a decent chance to be a home run but the ball died right in front of the 409 feet center field wall. Gah. Maybe a tick or two higher launch angle or different direction and that ball’s outta here. A 2-0 lead would have been very gratifying especially against Keuchel. Instead, the Astros struck the next inning.

Jose Altuve’s feet manufactured the first run for the Astros. With one out, Altuve hit a grounder up the middle and beat out Castro’s throw for an infield single. During Carlos Correa’s at-bat, Altuve stole second to put himself in scoring position. It wasn’t even a bad throw from Sanchez either. Altuve got a great jump and simply used his speed to reach safely. The Astros shortstop promptly followed it up with an RBI single to left to cash in a run for Houston. It was a slider that hung up on the zone and easy contact for a talented hitter like Correa. Marwin Gonzalez’s groundout pushed Correa to the second base with two outs. Yulieski Gurriel tacked on another run for the Astros with an RBI single up the middle. With Dallas Keuchel on the other side of the rubber, 2-0 Astros lead seemed like a mighty order to top.

A 2-0 deficit becomes more insurmountable when the team becomes unlucky in the game of inches. In the top of the fifth, the Yankees had two runners on with a Greg Bird single and Matt Holliday reaching on base on an Altuve error. After Todd Frazier lined out and Brett Gardner struck out, it was up to Aaron Judge to make something happen. He got a hold of a slider in the strike zone to line a base hit to the leftfielder Marwin Gonzalez.

At the moment that Gonzalez released the ball on the throw to the plate, Bird had just rounded third base and it seemed like he had a good chance to score. However, 1) Greg Bird isn’t really fast 2) Marwin Gonzalez threw that ball really hard at 97.4 mph. As a result, Bird was tagged out by Brian McCann as his foot was about to slide into the plate. I would not pin that on third base Joe Espada. Bird was well on his way home as Gonzalez was releasing the ball, which is like a runner tagging up way before the throw during the sacrifice fly. Take a look:
bandicam-2017-10-14-10-50-12-244

Again, stupid game of inches. Would have been nice to score a run and get the rally going in that inning but that’s not how it went. Such is baseball. Another annoying thing happened in the top of the sixth when Didi Gregorius hit a blooper that headed towards the left field line… and was just foul. It could have placed a runner on the scoring position with one out but instead, Gregorius ended up striking out. It was close:

bandicam-2017-10-14-11-09-07-564

Tanaka threw a good start. 2 runs allowed in 6 innings of work against the fine-tuned machine that is the Astros lineup is more than enough. Just so happens that Keuchel is a postseason beast that also happens to own New York. The Yankees will have to win the series in spite of him.

The bullpen portion

After Tanaka, Girardi put in Chad Green to keep the game close for the Yankees. It was his first appearance since the ALDS Game 2 disaster and boy, he rebounded well tonight. In two innings, Green struck out two and allowed only two baserunners. I have a feeling that he might be coming out of the ‘pen more frequently this series than in the ALDS. Tonight’s outing certainly helped making his case for more appearances.

On the Astros side, Chris Devenski relieved Keuchel to start the eighth inning. As Gardner walked with one out, A.J. Hinch brought in the closer Ken Giles for a five-out save. Giles threw 38 pitches, which makes you wonder if he will be available at all tomorrow. Even if he will be, he’ll probably be limited to an inning. With two outs in the top of the ninth, it looked like the Yankees will be shut out but Greg Bird denied it. On the third pitch of his at-bat, Bird squared up on Giles’ 98 mph fastball up in the zone into the right field seats for a 399-footer. It was a classic lefty pull power swing and a beauty. I can watch this gif over and over for awhile.

bird

Unfortunately, the time for the Yankees to rally was pretty much at minimum. Jacoby Ellsbury, pinch-hitting for Matt Holliday, struck out in four pitches to end the game. 2-1 Astros was the final score.

Box score, updated standings, video highlights and WPA

Here is tonight’s box score from ESPN, video highlights from MLB.com and WPA chart from Fangraphs.

Source: FanGraphs

The Yankees are back at it again at the Minute Maid Park tomorrow on 4 pm EST for the Game 2 of the ALCS. Luis Severino will be on the mound against Justin Verlander – two of the league’s best fireballers! Should be a fun one to watch (or gut-wrenching, depends on how tense you feel).

2017 ALCS Game One: Yankees at Astros

October 13, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

I gotta say, I did not expect the Yankees to reach the ALCS after they fell behind 0-2 to the Indians in the ALDS, but here we are. Here they are, really. I didn’t do anything other than blog about it. Four more wins and this lovable squad of great young players and quality veterans will advance to the World Series. This is the first time the Yankees have been underdogs since 1996. It’s been fun.

Of course, winning the ALCS and getting to the World Series will be no picnic, the same way winning the ALDS wasn’t easy. It only gets harder to win each time you advance. The Astros, who won 101 games during the regular season, completely depantsed the Red Sox in the ALDS and showed off their high-powered offense. Here’s how long it took Houston to take the lead in the four ALDS games:

Game One: Five batters, including the three Red Sox batters in the top of the first.
Game Two: Nine batters, including the five Red Sox batters in the top of the first.
Game Three: Three batters.
Game Four: Four batters.

Yeah. The Astros are good. But so are the Yankees! They wouldn’t be here if they weren’t. Historically, the team that wins Game One of a best-of-seven series goes on to win the series 64.1% of the time. Then again, we all read about how rare it is for a team to come back from down 0-2 in a best-of-five series last round, and the Yankees are still standing. But seriously, win Game One and start the ALCS off on the right foot. Here are the lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. C Gary Sanchez
4. SS Didi Gregorius
5. 2B Starlin Castro
6. CF Aaron Hicks
7. 1B Greg Bird
8. DH Matt Holliday
9. 3B Todd Frazier
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Houston Astros
1. CF George Springer
2. RF Josh Reddick
3. 2B Jose Altuve
4. SS Carlos Correa
5. LF Marwin Gonzalez
6. 1B Yulieski Gurriel
7. CF Carlos Beltran
8. DH Alex Bregman
9. C Brian McCann
LHP Dallas Keuchel

It is hot in Houston today. It’s still like the middle of summer down there. Fortunately for everyone at Minute Maid Park, the roof will be closed and the air conditioning will be on. Tonight’s game will begin at 8pm ET and FOX Sports 1 will have the broadcast. Enjoy the game.

Umpire Review: 2017 American League Championship Series

October 13, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

The following is a guest post from Adam Moss, who goes by Roadgeek Adam in the comments. He’s previously written guest posts on Tim McClelland, Frankie Crosetti, the No. 26, Casey Stengel, Leo Durocher, Miller Huggins, Jerry Kenney, the Copacabana incident, Mark Koenig, Earle Combs, Urban Shocker, Michael Milosevich, and Snuffy Stirnweiss.

Man, that last series was something sort of exciting. Unfortunately Aaron Judge’s strike zone was not. The umpires managed to make it hard for him to do anything. That ALDS crew is gone and none are repeating on this ALCS crew. In this series, we will have an interesting set up because of the seven-game series. Instead of the same six umpires, it is a seven man crew, with one serving as replay coordinator during the series. As a result, there are seven umpires on this report, and it is an interesting list.

Chad Fairchild – No. 4 (HP Game 1 / Replay Coordinator Gms 3-7)

Chadwick Jarrett Fairchild will lead off the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park. Immediately, we are stuck with a horrid nightmare for Aaron Judge. Chad Fairchild has a very anti-right handed batter strike zone. Fairchild has a propensity to call more strikes inside out of the zone to righties than lefties. (We saw the opposite with Jeff Nelson in ALDS Game 5.) Fairchild’s statistics read rather rudimentary, with 8.3 K/9 and 8.3 H/9. His numbers also include a 4.01 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. Hitters had a .246/.315/.421 batting line, which makes a lean towards a pitchers’ umpire, especially inside to righties, but it may be a bit subjective.

The Sandusky, Ohio native definitely has a big enemy in Cincinnati. Catcher Devin Mesoraco has been ejected not once, but twice, arguing Fairchild strike calls, one with him behind the plate. Fairchild made his MLB debut on September 30, 2004 at the Trop between a game between the Devil Rays and the Detroit Tigers. The Yankees have a limited experience with his right arm (which he has utilized 32 times in his career). His first two MLB ejections were of Paul Quantrill and Joe Torre, when the former nailed Jason Smith in replacement of Mike Mussina on May 24, 2005. We only saw him once this season behind the plate, July 7 during the Brewers/Yankees series.

Hunter Wendeltstedt – No. 21 (HP Game 2)

The son of the legendary umpire Harry Wendelstedt, Hunter Wendelstedt is the home plate umpire for the second game of the American League Championship Series. An anonymous scouting report describes Wendelstedt well and it comes down to this: he is inconsistent. He will lose focus during games for reasons I cannot explain and will be willing to call strikes and balls like throwing darts. That 2010 scouting report also stated that it seemed like Wendelstedt preferred you put the ball in play. The last sentence backs up his 2017 statistics. In 27 games this season, Wendelstedt managed to have a 4.41 umpire’s ERA (good for 44th) and a 1.36 WHIP (really high). Wendelstedt averages 8.7 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 8.2 K/9. Hitters have a .254/.328/.434 line with Wendelstedt behind the plate. Scouting report: hit the ball. Things are more likely to go your way.

Wendelstedt made his MLB debut at Coors Field on April 19, 1998 (of course, a 10-7 win for Colorado over Atlanta) and like his late father, was hired by the National League. He has 77 ejections since his debut and seems to manage at least 2 a season. Once again, there is no history with the New York Yankees in terms of ejections. However, he has the honor of ejecting Ron Gardenhire not once, not twice, not even three times, but five times. We have seen Hunter behind the plate several times this season: June 28 at Comiskey II, and June 9 against the Orioles at the Stadium.

Gary Cederstrom – No. 38 (HP Game 3 – Crew Chief)

The mellow North Dakotan is the crew chief for the American League Championship Series and he calls the first game at Yankee Stadium. His strike zone is more famous in Willets Point as he is the proud owner of Johan Santana’s strike zone for his June 1, 2012 no-hitter. At the same time, we all know that Santana was a bit wild that night. However, his number reads towards average to hitter’s strike zone. Despite this, you can see that hitters really swing with Cederstrom behind the plate. He has a 4.76 umpire’s ERA (15th of 92) and a 1.40 WHIP. Batters have a .267/.330/.440 batting line, which is insanely pro-hitter. Cederstrom also gave an average of 9.4 H/9, 8.6K/9, and 3.2 BB/9. Probably wise to say you like to swing with Gary.

Cederstrom, from Bismarck, North Dakota, made his MLB debut on June 2, 1989 at Comiskey Park in a game between the Twins and the White Sox. If you want to know why he’s mellow, I have never once seen him angry as an umpire, even during situations where a player or manager is yelling at him, he never raises his voice. The man is really mellow. He has 40 ejections since his debut, which is insanely low per average for an umpire in the league 25+ years. The Yankees experience is three ejections: one of Paul O’Neill on June 2, 1995 for arguing balls and strikes after a groundout. That was literally his first ejection in over four years at that point. His other ejections with the Yankees are a little more unusual. Jason Grimsley threw over the head of Edgar Martinez then nailed him on the second pitch, promptly being ejected. Doug Eddings ended up ejecting Joe Torre. In the top of the 9th, Frank Rodriguez nailed Chuck Knoblauch and while Lou Piniella and Don Zimmer spent time arguing with Cederstrom, Frankie Rodriguez yelled at the Yankees bench and the benches cleared. Joe Girardi took on Rodriguez himself and ended up being ejected for fighting. Humorously, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, both kids at this point, stood aside and started talking while this all was going on. Why YouTube has not found this fight yet is beyond me. I want to see it. We saw Cederstrom behind the plate three times this season. The first was on June 4 at the Rogers Centre; July 15 at Fenway Park and September 20 at the Stadium against the Twins.

Chris Guccione – No. 68 (HP Game 4)

I would say Game 4 features an umpire not on Joe Girardi’s Christmas card list. These two have butted heads on multiple occasions. He is dealing with Game 4 behind the plate. Game 4 will be super crazy zone. Hoo, boy. Chris Guccione has a written off mess for a strike zone and it shows statistically, with a 4.78 ERA, and a 1.40 WHIP. He also has a 9.3 H/9 strike zone, 3.3 BB/9 and the absurdly high 9.2 K/9. Hitters have a .265/.335/.443 hitting line, and looking at a random sample strike zone, he is all over the map: either squeezing or being expansive. We could be looking at literally anything in Game 4.

The native of Salida, Colorado made his MLB debut on April 25, 2000 in a 1-0 game between the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Turner Field. This is his second ALCS, the last being 2012 (with the Yankees and the Tigers). Strangely that season and this season are the only ones in which he does not have an ejection at all. Guccione has 57 ejections, including three of Joe Girardi. He has been tossed once as Marlins manager on August 5, 2006 and twice as Yankees manager (May 22, 2008, his first as a Yankee manager; and May 5, 2016 at Camden Yards). Otherwise, nada. No other Yankees. The Yankees have also not seen his strike zone this season. Only series he was with the Yankees, he never worked the plate.

Jerry Meals – No. 41 (HP Game 5)

Nineteenth Inning Nightmare makes his return in Game 5, if it occurs. Jerry Meals, one of your best definitions of average umpires. This is his first Championship Series in 10 seasons, and his numbers read insanely average. 4.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP with 8.8 H/9, 8.0 H/9 and 3.4 BB/9. He is an average umpire. Nothing outright amazing, and nothing to really pick on to watch out for in Game 5, if we get that far. If it helps, he was the home plate umpire for Kerry Wood’s 20 strikeout game.

I’d say Meals has a hot head for his short stature. The native of Butler, Pennsylvania made his MLB debut on September 14, 1992 in a barnburner between the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets at Wrigley Field. Since then, he has amassed 49 ejections, two with the Yankees: Joe Torre on April 17, 2001 at Rogers Centre and Joe Girardi on May 4, 2009 at the Stadium. He also ejected Joe as manager of the Marlins on May 19, 2006. That said, the one game that stands in his history came on July 26, 2011 in a game between the Atlanta Braves and the Pittsburgh Pirates. That game went 19 innings (10 of them without Nate McLouth and Fredi Gonzalez, both tossed in the 9th for arguing balls and strikes). However, the way the Braves walked-off was insanely controversial as he blew an obvious call at home in the 19th inning with Julio Lugo scoring on a throw. I watched that game, and those who know me know I love 20 inning games. Thanks to that play, the name Nineteen Inning Nightmare was born. If you want to make your own decision, here is the play:

We only saw Meals behind the plate once this season, July 3 at the Stadium behind the Toronto Blue Jays. Hopefully the Yankees and the Astros do not go 19 innings.

Jim Reynolds – No. 77 (HP Game 6)

Jimmy Reynolds starts his fourth Championship Series this week and his third in three years. Reynolds is a textbook definition of hitter’s umpire. In 30 games this season, Reynolds has a 4.51 ERA (38th of 92) with a 1.42 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9. The .265/.335/.453 batting line also backs up the hitters ump projection. However, if you are a righty batter you are in for another headache, because Reynolds leans towards giving inside strikes to right-handed batters than left-handed ones. It could be an ugly nightmare in Game 6 for right-handed hitters.

The Marlborough, Massachusetts native made his MLB debut on June 4, 1999 at Fenway Park in an interleague game between the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves. He was one of the 25 umpires hired after the mass resignation scandal with the umpires went awry. He has 36 ejections in his career since being hired, which is about average. However, he has none of the Yankees. Despite that, he did eject Joe Girardi in Chicago on April 9, 2000 for a call at second base. That was Reynolds’ second ever ejection. Girardi’s pitching coach, Larry Rothschild was his first ever ejection on July 25, 1999 for arguing a call at 1st base while manager of the Devil Rays. Serving under Joe West’s crew, we did not see his strike zone behind the plate this season.

Mark Carlson – No. 6 (HP Game 7 / Replay Coordinator Gms 1-2)

Mark Carlson is our seventh and final umpire this series and we will not see him on the field until Game 3. I am sure he is happy Carlos Zambrano is not. Zambrano went nuts on him on this play at the plate, which was a correct call. Nyjer Morgan scored before Zambrano tagged him. The former Marine is an average umpire and the 8.8 H/9 innings, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 would agree with that. So would the .256/.323/.440 batting line. (The slugging is on the high side, but that is a nitpick.)

The Joliet, Illinois native Carlson made his MLB debut on June 11, 1999 at Wrigley Field in a game between the Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs. Since then, he has amassed 53 ejections (on the high end for an umpire debuting in the 1998-2001 range). He has never ejected a Yankee, but amassed 11 ejections in 2003, including four in one game on July 13, 2003 between the San Diego Padres and the St. Louis Cardinals. Unfortunately there is no video of this fight on YouTube. We saw Carlson’s strike zone three times behind the plate this season: April 27 at Fenway Park, August 9 at the Rogers Centre, and September 24 at Rogers Centre. Let us pray we do not see it again.

Scouting Game One of the ALCS: Dallas Keuchel

October 13, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

In just a few hours the Yankees will open their ALCS matchup with the Astros at Minute Maid Park in Houston. The Yankees completed a pretty incredible comeback from down 0-2 in the ALDS to beat the Indians, the AL’s best team during the regular season. Now they’ll have to beat the AL’s second best team in the ALCS.

Against the Red Sox in the ALDS, the Astros started Justin Verlander in Game One and Dallas Keuchel in Game Two. Now, in the ALCS, Keuchel is starting Game One and Verlander is starting Game Two. That’s because Verlander threw 2.2 innings in relief in Game Four of the ALDS on Monday. First career relief appearance for him. He never even pitched out of the bullpen in college or the minors. Huh.

Verlander’s relief appearance means Keuchel starts Game One tonight, and Keuchel is something of a Yankees nemesis despite not playing in the same division. He beat the Yankees in the 2015 Wild Card Game, as you know, though he’s also had his way with them in the regular season. For his career, Keuchel has a 1.41 ERA (1.59 FIP) in six regular season starts against the Yankees, plus he threw six shutout innings on short rest in the 2015 Wild Card Game.

During the regular season the 29-year-old Keuchel threw 145.2 innings with a 2.90 ERA (3.79 FIP) in 23 starts. He also missed time with a neck injury. Among the 90 pitchers who threw at least 140 innings in 2017, his 66.8% ground ball rate was easily the highest (Marcus Stroman was second at 62.1%). Keuchel’s strikeout (21.4%) and walk (8.1%) rates were basically league average. Let’s break down Houston’s co-ace.

History Against The Yankees

Like I said, Keuchel has dominated the Yankees historically, but so did Corey Kluber and look how that turned out in the ALDS. I suspect we’re going to hear a lot about that 2015 Wild Card Game during the broadcast tonight, but keep in mind this is a different Yankees team. The only Yankees who were in the 2015 Wild Card Game starting lineup and are still with the team are Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird, and Chase Headley. And Headley’s not in the lineup tonight.

Overall, players on New York’s roster have hit .184/.215/.282 in 108 total plate appearances against Keuchel in his career, which dates back to the time before he emerged as an ace. I’m not sure why that history would be relevant now. Keuchel’s a different pitcher. Here are the numbers against Keuchel the last three years:

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Headley	18	18	3	0	0	1	0	8	.167	.167	.167	.333
Jacoby Ellsbury	13	12	1	0	0	1	0	2	.083	.083	.083	.167
Didi Gregorius	12	12	3	1	0	0	0	4	.250	.250	.333	.583
Aaron Hicks	12	10	1	0	1	1	2	3	.100	.250	.400	.650
Starlin Castro	9	9	2	1	0	2	0	5	.222	.222	.333	.556
Greg Bird	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667
Brett Gardner	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000
Matt Holliday	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667
Aaron Judge	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Austin Romine	3	3	2	1	0	1	0	0	.667	.667	1.000	1.667
Gary Sanchez	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Total	82	79	14	3	1	6	2	29	.177	.198	.253	.451

Not gonna lie, when I looked up these numbers earlier today, I got worried we’d see Romine behind the plate tonight thanks to that 2-for-3 with a double line against Keuchel. Fortunately, that is not the case. That 2-for-3 with a double happened in a game last season, by the way.

Anyway, the head-to-head history still isn’t very good, though most players in that table only have three career plate appearances against Keuchel, so it’s not a ton of history. Neither Headley nor Ellsbury, who have combined for 31 of those 82 plate appearances against Keuchel, is in the lineup tonight. Noticeably absent from that table is Todd Frazier. He’s never faced Keuchel in his career.

In Game Two of the ALDS the Red Sox scored one run in 5.2 innings against Keuchel, forcing him to throw 96 pitches. The Red Sox don’t have a great offense though. The Yankees hit for considerably more power and are better at working the count and prolonging at-bats. That doesn’t automatically mean they’ll have more success against Keuchel, of course.

Current Stuff

Keuchel is a throwback. The Yankees just saw an Indians pitching staff loaded with power arms and wicked breaking balls. Keuchel is a finesse southpaw with a sinker that sits right around 90 mph. That’s the pitch that gave him the league’s best ground ball rate in 2017. Keuchel, similar to CC Sabathia, will bust righties inside with a cutter and get them to chase away with a changeup. He also has a good slider. Keuchel doesn’t bring a lot of velocity to the table, but he knows how to pitch. He’ll pitch inside and keep everything down.

Here is Keuchel’s regular season pitch selection, via Brooks Baseball:

Lefties get the slider, righties get the cutter and changeup. Pretty standard. Keuchel is quite similar to the current version of Sabathia, though his sinker is top notch and his cutter has more cutting action. Their style is similar though.

Here is every pitch Keuchel threw against the Athletics on April 30th of this season, when he allowed one run in 7.2 innings. The dead center field camera angle provides a great look at the movement on his pitches.

Everything Keuchel throws has some movement and that makes him awfully tough to square up. Among those 90 pitchers who threw at least 140 innings in 2017, Keuchel had the highest soft contact rate (25.4%) and the lowest hard contact rate (24.7%), and by quite a bit too. Kluber had the second highest soft contact rate at 24.4% while Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery (!) tied for the second lowest hard contact rate at 26.5%.

Keuchel is going to frustrate the hell out of hitters and also fans, who will see less than premium velocity and pitches that look hittable result in soft contact. The subtle movement keeps Keuchel away from the sweet spot though. That’s how he succeeds. If he throws something that starts belt high, it’ll finish down around the knees. If he throws something that starts at the knees, take it, because it’ll probably drop out of the zone.

Platoon Splits

Despite the lack of overpowering stuff, Keuchel has absolutely crushed lefties the last three seasons. He’s quite good against righties too, but against lefties, he’s incredibly dominant. Here are the 2015-17 platoon splits:

vs. RHB: .241/.300/.375 (.295 wOBA) with 21.2 K%, 7.4 BB%, 59.9 GB%
vs. LHB: .186/.221/.279 (.219 wOBA) with 25.6K%, 3.7 BB%, 67.4 GB%

Gardner, Gregorius, and Bird are the only lefties in tonight’s lineup, and they’re three guys who are going to play every game from here on out no matter what. Anything can happen in one individual game, but yeah, the righties are probably going to have to carry the offense against Keuchel tonight.

Can The Yankees Run On Him?

You know what? No. Shockingly. As I mentioned this morning, the Astros were by far the worst team in baseball at throwing out basestealers during the regular season. Keuchel, thanks in part to being left-handed, has an excellent pickoff move, however. Runners went 3-for-5 stealing bases against him in the regular season. That’s all. Over the last four seasons they’re 11-for-18. His pickoff move makes up for the terrible arms behind the plate.

Also, it’s worth noting Keuchel is the best fielding pitcher in baseball, which helps when you’re such an extreme ground ball pitcher. Bunting on him probably won’t work, at least not if you’re trying to bunt for a hit. Gardner unsuccessful tried to bunt for a hit on the first pitch of ALDS Game Five, though I don’t see that happening again against any pitcher, let along the best fielding pitcher in the game.

* * *

Because the Astros appear to have some middle relief issues, working the count and driving up the starter’s pitch count could have a huge impact on this series. I mean, that’s always a good strategy, but in the ALDS you knew Andrew Miller was going to be the first guy out of the bullpen, and that’s no fun. Chris Devenski faded down the stretch, so the Astros don’t have a Miller. The best plan of attack against Keuchel figures to be grinding out at-bats, waiting him out, then getting to the bullpen.