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Yankees trade Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos to Cardinals

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Please welcome Luke Voit to the team of large adult sons. (Presswire)

Following tonight’s win the Yankees announced they have traded lefty Chasen Shreve and righty Gio Gallegos to the Cardinals for first baseman Luke Voit and an undisclosed sum of international bonus money. The move clears a 25-man roster spot for J.A. Happ, who was acquired Thursday.

The Yankees had been carrying four starters and a nine-man bullpen these last few days and they had to unload someone to make room on the roster for Happ, and Shreve is the odd man out. Realistically, it was either Shreve or A.J. Cole, and Cole’s pitched quite well with the Yankees, so he stays.

Shreve, 28, had been on the 40-man roster bubble for what felt like three years before being traded away. He’s spent the bulk of the last four years in the big league bullpen after coming over from the Braves in a trade for Manny Banuelos. This season Shreve has a 4.26 ERA (4.98 FIP) with 46 strikeouts in 38 innings. He was rather emotional following the trade:

The 26-year-old Gallegos has been the quintessential up-and-down reliever the last two years, throwing 30.1 innings with 32 strikeouts and a 4.79 ERA (3.98 FIP) for the Yankees. Over the last two seasons he has a 2.79 ERA (1.99 FIP) with a 38.7% strikeout rate in 71 Triple-A innings. With Gallegos traded, I imagine Tommy Kahnle will take over as the primary up-and-down reliever.

Voit, 27, is essentially Garrett Cooper with more power. He’s a career .240/.307/.432 (95 wRC+) hitter with five home runs in 137 big league plate appearances scattered across the last two seasons. Down in Triple-A, Voit is hitting .299/.391/.500 (133 wRC+) with nine homers in 271 plate appearances this year. He’s a right-handed hitting first base only guy.

The Yankees already have Tyler Austin and Ryan McBroom, two other right-handed hitting first basemen, down in the minors. Voit is a better hitter than McBroom — he has more power, if nothing else — and, unlike Austin, he has minor league options remaining for 2019 and 2020. This is Austin’s final option year. For all intents and purposes, Voit is the new up-and-down first baseman.

To me, the trade was more about the international bonus money and getting something for Shreve rather than nothing. Had the Yankees designated him for assignment to clear a spot for Happ, he’d be lost on waivers. No doubt. Trading Gallegos clears a 40-man roster spot for … whoever needs one next. The Yankees have really cleaned up the fringes of the 40-man roster with their recent deals.

Update: Jesse Sanchez says the Yankees received $1M in international bonus money in the trade.

Yankees acquire J.A. Happ for Brandon Drury, Billy McKinney

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(Presswire)

The Yankees have been trying to add a starter since the offseason and they finally landed one. This afternoon the Yankees announced they have acquired veteran southpaw J.A Happ from the Blue Jays for infielder Brandon Drury and outfield prospect Billy McKinney. The trade has been announced and is official. Done deal.

For all intents and purposes, Happ will step into the rotation to replace Jordan Montgomery, who was lost to Tommy John surgery earlier this season. Domingo German and Luis Cessa had been starting in Montgomery’s place the last few weeks, and while there were some promising moments, it largely did not go well. The Yankees needed another starter and they got a pretty good facsimile of Montgomery in Happ.

Here is our Scouting The Market post on Happ. He currently owns a 4.18 ERA (3.84 FIP) with strikeout (27.4%) and ground ball (44.6%) rates that will play in Yankee Stadium. Happ has struggled recently — he’s allowed 26 runs in his last five starts and 31.1 innings — so the Yankees are clearly banking on his track record. He had a 3.33 ERA (3.87 FIP) with Toronto from 2016-17 and a 3.56 ERA (3.56 FIP) in 2018 as recently as June 24th.

In Drury and McKinney, the Yankees traded two players with no obvious long-term fit. Drury came over from the Diamondbacks in February, the Yankees talked him up all Spring Training, he was the Opening Day third baseman, then he landed on the disabled list with migraines and blurry vision, and Miguel Andujar took over third base. Andujar’s emergence has made Drury expendable.

During his limited big league time this season Drury hit .176/.263/.275 (50 wRC+) with one home run in 18 games while playing first, second, and third bases. He also hit .294/.403/.447 (144 wRC+) with five home runs in 55 games with Triple-A Scranton. The Yankees had Drury on their big league roster as a utility guy at various points the last few weeks, but he didn’t play much.

Going forward, the Yankees had no place to play Drury barring an injury, and that means no way to rebuild his trade value. The disabled list stint and lack of MLB playing time hurt his value, no doubt. Clearly the Yankees like him. They wouldn’t have made the trade for him otherwise. But his three primary positions are third base (Andujar), second base (Gleyber Torres), and first base (Greg Bird), and the Yankees have young players there.

Drury. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

As for McKinney, he was no higher than seventh on the outfield depth chart when everyone is healthy and no higher than fifth on the current outfield depth chart with Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique, hip, foot, back) and Clint Frazier (post-concussion migraines) on the disabled list. McKinney went from the A’s to the Cubs in the Jeff Samardzija trade, the Cubs to the Yankees in the Aroldis Chapman trade, and now to the Blue Jays in the Happ trade.

McKinney, who made his big league debut with the Yankees in Toronto earlier this season, hit .230/.294/.502 (120 wRC+) with 13 home runs in 54 Triple-A after returning from a shoulder injury suffered when the crashed into the Rogers Centre wall in April. He’s one of those ‘tweener guys the Yankees didn’t have room for, much like Ben Gamel and Jake Cave, who were traded away recently. I had McKinney 22nd on my most recent top 30 prospects list.

I’d mentioned in recent days the trade that sent Scott Kazmir from the Athletics to the Astros three years ago seemed like a decent benchmark for Happ, and it fits. Houston sent two mid-range prospects (Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham) to the A’s for Kazmir. The Yankees sent two mid-range prospects (Taylor Widener and Nick Solak) to the D’Backs for Drury, then flipped Drury for Happ. Consider McKinney inflation.

Happ is an impending free agent on a three-year contract worth $36M. His full luxury tax hit is $12M but his actual 2018 salary is $13M. He will count roughly $4M against the luxury tax payroll, less Drury’s and McKinney’s luxury tax hits. The net hit is something like $3.7M. The Yankees have plenty of luxury tax payroll wiggle room anyway. There’s still some payroll space remaining for another trade even if the Yankees don’t shed salary.

With Happ and Zach Britton, the Yankees have upgraded both their rotation and bullpen — the bullpen didn’t really need upgrading, but hey, Zach Britton! — with five days to go before the non-waiver trade deadline. They might be done, though I suspect they’ll look for a catcher given Gary Sanchez’s injury and monitor the pitching market in case a high-end starter like Jacob deGrom becomes available.

Scouting the Trade Market: J.A. Happ

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The Hot Stove is Happ-ening. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

The hot stove is scorching. Though J.A. Happ wasn’t moved on Wednesday night, he’s likely to be traded at any minute. The Blue Jays lefty is in the midst of a fine season, though he’s struggled recently. How does he fit the Yankees? Let’s look!

Current performance

James Anthony Happ carries a 4.18 ERA (3.84 FIP) over 114 innings and 20 starts into play Thursday, though he had a 3.62 ERA (3.64 FIP) heading into July. His early season performance, particularly his May and June results, earned him his first All-Star bid as the Blue Jay’s lone representative.

To start this month, the 35-year-old southpaw suffered three consecutive lackluster starts, allowing 18 runs (13 earned) while walking eight and striking out 15 over 12 innings. He gave up four homers as well. Yikes. In his first start after picking up a save in the All-Star Game, he returned to form with one run over five innings.

Why is he an attractive asset? He sports a career-high strikeout rate of 27.4 percent without having the corresponding rise in walk rate (7.4 percent). While he’s inducing fewer groundballs, he’s creating more pop outs and fewer line drives. The concern is that he’s allowing home runs at a hefty rate, surrendering 17 this season after giving up just 18 a year ago.

Happ has seen a rise in his swinging strike rate from 9.4 to a personal-best 10.5 percent despite throwing fewer pitches in the zone. Batters have swung and missed on pitches out of the zone more often and his overall contact percentage has improved from 80.1 to 77.7.

Like most lefties, Happ has always had a normal split, though he’s been even better against same-sided batters this season. Only two of his home runs were hit by left-handers. He’s been much better away from Rogers Centre (2.60 ERA on road vs. 5.22 ERA at home). Despite struggling at home, he’s enjoyed a late-career revival since his brief stint with the Pirates in 2015 and his subsequent return to Toronto.

Current stuff

Happ used to be a 4-5 pitch pitcher, but now he comfortably relies on just 3-4 pitches, depending on if you consider the sinker a separate pitch from his fastball. He has mostly phased out his curveball and now uses his low-90s four-seam fastball and sinker more than 70 percent of the time. For off-speed offerings, he sits in the mid-80s with his slider and changeup, combining to use them in 25 percent of his pitches.

He throws his four-seam fastball around 93 mph and is in the midst of his highest velocity month for his fastball in his career, according to Brooks Baseball. The sinker around 91 mph.

Happ’s fastball remains his best pitch, hence why he relies upon it. His struggles in July have been due to batters hitting his sinker more for average and his four-seamer for power.

When he’s at his best, he hides the ball well and can blow his low-90s fastball by hitters.

Injury History

Happ has been a workhorse in recent seasons, but he did miss a month and a half with an elbow injury last season. However, he hasn’t missed a start since May 30 of last season.

He’s over five years removed from foot surgery and a scary line drive that hit him in the head and knocked him out for much of the 2013 season.

Contract Status

The southpaw is a rental, so no more years or control or money beyond this season. He’s in the final year of a three-year, $36 million contract and has a little over $4 million remaining on his deal. The Yankees have around $8 million to play with before bumping into the luxury tax, so Happ fits their budget.

What Would it Take?

With the Blue Jays not in the midst of a full rebuild, they’ll likely want controllable players near the majors. Joel Sherman reported that the Jays’ brass likes Brandon Drury, who the Yankees have reportedly floated in trade offers.

If not Drury, I’d expect a package that splits the difference between the Red Sox’s haul for Nate Eovaldi (one Triple-A pitcher with six years of control) and the Zach Britton package (one Triple-A starter, a Triple-A reliever and a Double-A starter). The Yankees have pitching depth from which to deal.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

The Yankees are looking to stabilize a rotation that is currently tossing out Luis Cessa and Sonny Gray two out of every five days, so Happ would do just fine. His price may be a little high considering his contract status, but the Bombers can afford to splurge with a 40-man roster crunch looming in the offseason. Happ could also audition for a deal with the Yankees next season.

It doesn’t hurt that the Red Sox struggle with lefties and the Yankees have them on the schedule nine more times this year. Happ isn’t perfect in this regard, having gotten shelled by the Sox earlier this month. But at the very least, he could be a stable addition to replace the rotating cast of younger players at the back-end of the rotation.

Trade Deadline Rumors: Archer, Happ, Pitching Prospects

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Archer. (Hannah Foslien/Getty)

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline is now six days away and the Yankees made their (first?) big move last night. They acquired Zach Britton for three pitching prospects. The trade became official late last night. No need to worry about those stingy O’s medical reviews. It’s done. Britton is a Yankee. Anyway, here are the latest deadline rumors.

Yankees have checked in on Archer

The Yankees had two scouts on hand for Chris Archer’s most recent start and they have asked about his availability, report Pete Caldera and Jerry Crasnick. Archer faced the Marlins on Sunday and it was the perfect encapsulation of Chris Archer. He struck out 13 and walked zero in six innings … and also allowed four runs on eight hits. Archer has a 4.30 ERA (3.50 FIP) with 25.6% strikeouts and 7.5% walks in 90 innings around an abdominal injury this year. Since Opening Day 2016, he has a 4.09 ERA (99 ERA+) in 492.1 innings.

Truth be told, the Rays missed their opportunity to trade Archer for maximum value a few years ago. He turns 30 in September (no, really), his performance has slipped in recent years, and he comes with three years of control beyond 2018 rather than four or five. That said, Archer can still tantalize with his stuff, and three years of control at $27.7M from 2019-21 is a great price even if he is a true talent league average starter now. The Yankees are doing their due diligence. I still get the sense Tampa will want an ace-caliber package in return for Archer though.

Blue Jays dropping price for Happ

According to Joel Sherman and Andy Martino, the Blue Jays are really pushing to trade their rentals soon — they don’t want to be stuck trying to move everyone on deadline day — and their asking price for J.A. Happ has dropped. They had been seeking a club’s top three-ish prospect in return. The Scott Kazmir trade makes sense to me as a benchmark. Kazmir went from the Athletics to the Astros for two mid-range prospects (Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham) as a rental three years ago.

The Yankees have of course been connected to Happ in recent weeks, so this information is relevant to them. Maybe this’ll start to move things toward the finish line. Happ has a 4.18 ERA (3.84 FIP) in 20 starts and 114 innings this season, though his last six starts have been rough (27 runs in 31.1 innings). Even last time out, he needed 102 pitches to throw five innings of one-run ball against the Manny Machado-less Orioles. Thing is, all the other rentals (Cole Hamels, Tyson Ross, etc.) have stunk recently too. I liked Happ the most among the rentals to start with. Since they’re all struggling, might as well stick with the guy liked most in the first place? I guess?

Teams interested in pitching prospects more than Frazier

According to our Sung-Min Kim, the Yankees have been pushing Clint Frazier in trade talks in recent weeks, but teams are showing more interest in their pitching prospects. The Yankees are loaded with outfielders and pushing Frazier in trade conversations only makes sense. His recent disabled list stint and trip through the concussion protocol really complicates things before the trade deadline, however.

As for trading pitching prospects, man, trade ’em all. Well, no, not all of them, but I think you know what I mean. The Yankees are loaded with pitching prospects — 22 of MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects are pitchers — and the attrition rate is so damn high. Trade some of them before they blow out their arms and whatnot. Justus Sheffield is on another level for me. He’s a stud and he’s so very close to MLB ready. He should only go in a trade for a true difference maker. Chance Adams? Albert Abreu? Pretty much every other pitching prospect in the system? No trouble trading any of them.

Yankees won’t part with top prospects for rentals

Sheff. (Times Leader)

In some very unsurprising news, Jack Curry reports the Yankees won’t trade any of their top prospects for a rental before the deadline. Maybe in a better trade market they would, but, with no high-end pitching rentals available, the top prospects are staying. Curry lists Sheffield, Frazier, and Estevan Florial among the “untouchable for a rental” group, which makes sense.

The Yankees did trade three prospects for Britton but only one (Tate) ranked among my most recent top 30 Yankees prospects. He was No. 7. (To be fair, Cody Carroll was No. 31.) The farm system isn’t what it was 18 months ago due to trades and graduations, but the Yankees still have plenty of good trade chips down there, even with Tate gone and the top guys off-limits. There’s an awful lot of pitching down there to peddle.

Yankees pushing Drury, Rule 5 Draft arms in trades

As expected, the Yankees have been pushing Brandon Drury and their various Rule 5 Draft eligible pitching prospects (Adams, Erik Swanson, etc.) in trades, according to Sherman and Martino. Drury and either Adams or Abreu, who is already on the 40-man roster, reportedly made up the bulk of their offer for Manny Machado. The Orioles wanted Florial and that was that. I should note the Yankees agreed to trade three Rule 5 Draft eligible arms (Carroll, Tate, Josh Rogers) for Britton.

As for Drury, Jeff Passan says the Yankees have been pushing him in trades for controllable relievers (in addition to the Machado), and Jon Heyman adds Drury was in the team’s offer for Brad Hand. I assume the Britton trade ends the bullpen search, but who knows? They could add a long-term bullpen piece to help win this year and help replace impending free agents Britton and David Robertson after the season. Could happen! But yeah, I wouldn’t count on it. Point is, the Yankees are pushing Drury and Rule 5 Draft eligible pitchers. Here’s a list of their upcoming Rule 5 Draft eligibles.

Yankees acquire Zach Britton for Dillon Tate, two others

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(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

11:48pm ET: The Yankees have announced the trade, so it’s a done deal. Officially official. The trade is as reported: Britton for Tate, Rogers, and Carroll. Will Britton make it to Tampa in time for tomorrow’s game? Quick turnaround for the 12pm ET start. We’ll see.

11:13pm ET: For the second time in eleven years the Yankees have acquired a Britton from the Orioles. According to multiple reports, the Yankees and Orioles have agreed to a trade sending Zach Britton to the Yankees for pitching prospects Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll, and Josh Rogers. These two teams made the Jared Wright-for-Chris Britton trade back in 2007, you may remember. The present day Britton deal is not yet final, which is notable given the O’s stingy medical reviews.

The Yankees had been connected to both Britton and Brad Hand in recent weeks, and after Hand went to the Indians for top prospect Francisco Mejia, their focus apparently shifted to Britton. He joins a bullpen that already ranks among the best in baseball in basically everything. The team’s bullpen ranks going into Tuesday’s game:

  • ERA: 2.75 (first)
  • FIP: 3.02 (second)
  • K%: 31.5% (first)
  • WPA: +7.73 (third)
  • Shutdowns: 104 (fifth most) (what’s this?)
  • Meltdowns: 41 (second fewest) (what’s this?)

With Aroldis Chapman locked into the closer’s role, Britton will join a setup crew that includes Dellin Betances, Chad Green, and David Robertson. Jonathan Holder has started to see more high-leverage work as well. Handedness doesn’t matter with pretty much any of these guys, but it will be nice to have a lefty setup option.

Simply put, Britton allows the Yankees to further shorten the game, which is an especially big deal come postseason time. The Yankees could go four-and-fly come October and throw power arm after power arm at their opponent. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though. Gotta get there first. Also, Britton is a pretty great insurance policy in case Chapman’s achy left knee acts up again at some point.

One other thing to keep in mind: The Yankees kept Britton away from the Astros and Red Sox, two potential postseason opponents. The Astros and Red Sox were both after him, as were other contenders like the Cubs, Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies. I’m not sure how much keeping him away from the Astros and Red Sox helps, but it sure doesn’t hurt.

Here is my Scouting The Market post on Britton. He returned from a torn Achilles last month and has generally looked better and better as he gets further away from the injury. Britton looks like a guy who’s been shaking off the rust following a long layoff, basically. He’s thrown eight scoreless innings in his last eight appearances, and both the velocity and movement on his trademark sinker is improving.

As for the trade package going to Baltimore, the deal closely mirrors what the Red Sox gave up to get Addison Reed last year, except that the Yankees headlined the trade with a top ten organizational prospect (Tate) rather than a top 20 organizational prospect because Britton is flat out better than Reed. One top ten prospect plus two fringe top 30 prospects rather than one top 20 prospect plus two fringe top 30 prospects. To be honest, I thought Britton would fetch more given the teams involved.

Tate. (Presswire)

Tate, 24, originally joined the Yankees in the Carlos Beltran trade two years ago. He’s missed time with various injuries (hamstring, shoulder, quad) in recent years and has a 3.38 ERA (3.76 FIP) with 21.9% strikeouts, 7.3% walks, and 48.1% grounders in 82.2 innings with Double-A Trenton this season. I ranked him as the team’s No. 7 prospect in my most recent top 30 Yankees prospects list.

The 24-year-old Rogers and Carroll are both with Triple-A Scranton. Rogers was New York’s 11th round pick in 2015 and he has a 3.95 ERA (4.23 FIP) with underwhelming strikeout (17.7%) and ground ball (40.8%) rates. He’s a finesse southpaw who’s best case seems to be a poor man’s Jordan Montgomery. Carroll, a 22nd round pick in 2015, is a hard-throwing reliever with a 2.38 ERA (2.27 FIP) with 32.2% strikeouts and 10.5% walks this year. The Yankees have about 20 of those dudes in the system.

It’s important to note all three prospects will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season, so the Yankees cleared out some 40-man roster clutter here. In fact, a few weeks ago I singled out Tate and Rogers as Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects who could be on the 40-man bubble this winter (Tate might be a reliever, Rogers isn’t a good fit for Yankee Stadium), making them candidates to be moved at the trade deadline. See? Sometimes I say something smart.

Joel Sherman says the Yankees are taking on remainder of Britton’s $12M salary, which is roughly $4.5M or so. Last time I checked, they had about $13M in payroll space remaining under the $197M luxury tax threshold, so they can fit Britton in comfortably. There’s plenty of room for additional trade pickups and call-ups and waiver claims and whatnot as well. The luxury tax plan is still in good shape.

Britton is an impending free agent and it is way way way too early to worry about what happens after the season. I imagine he’ll look for a closer’s job somewhere, in which case re-signing with the Yankees probably won’t happen. Perhaps he’ll fall in love with the team and the city, pull an Andrew Miller and accept any role, and re-sign as a free agent. We’ll see. Don’t worry about that now. For now, I consider him a short-term addition only.

In all likelihood adding Britton is the first move for the Yankees before Tuesday’s non-waiver deadline, not the move. They absolutely need another starting pitcher and I’d bet the farm on them adding one before the deadline. Who? I’m not sure. But it’ll be someone. For now, the Yankees have upgraded an already strong bullpen (this might spell the end of Chasen Shreve), and there’s nothing wrong with adding to a strength. The Yankees are a better team now than they were before the trade.

Scouting the Trade Market: Tyson Ross

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(Getty)

The state of the Yankees rotation is shaky at best right now, with precious little in the way of certainty beyond Luis Severino. CC Sabathia has been excellent, but he’s a 38-year-old with balky knees and a ton of mileage on his arm; Masahiro Tanaka has been subpar and inconsistent, seemingly alternating good and bad starts; Sonny Gray is one of the worst starters in baseball in 2018; and the fifth starter’s spot is currently a revolving door. As such, the Yankees have a clear-cut need for at least one starting pitcher – preferably one that can be counted on in key games down the stretch and in the playoffs.

Does Tyson Ross fit that mold? Or is he just a back of the rotation option?

Current Performance

The 31-year-old Ross has been a slightly below-average starter across the board this season, albeit by fairly slim margins. Check it out:

  • Tyson Ross: 21.1 K%, 9.5 BB%, 1.19 HR/9, 44.0 GB%, 110 ERA-, 111 FIP-
  • NL Average: 22.3 K%, 8.9 BB%, 1.09 HR/9, 44.1 GB%, 101 ERA-, 100 FIP-

His ERA and FIP check in at 10 and 11% below-average, respectively, as Petco Park – Ross’s home for the time being – is generally among the most pitcher-friendly in the game. Though, interestingly enough, he has been better on the road in terms of ERA (4.12 vs. 4.53), FIP (4.28 vs. 4.78), and strikeout rate (24.2% vs. 16.5%), and his walk rate is nearly identical (9.7% vs. 9.3%). It’s a small sample size within a partial season, so it could be meaningless, but it’s diametrically opposed to most Padres pitchers.

What stands out the most about Ross’s season may well be just how good he was prior to two disastrous starts to open July. He allowed four home runs and walked more batters (5) than he struck out (2), leading to 15 earned runs in just 7 IP. His numbers before those starts and since might paint a clearer picture of his current talent level, if you’re an optimist:

  • Before: 95.0 IP, 22.7 K%, 8.8 BB%, 1.0 HR/9, 43.1 GB% 85 ERA-, 98 FIP-
  • After: 11.1 IP, 20.8 K%, 12.5 BB%, 0.8 HR/9, 48.4 GB%, 82 ERA-, 109 FIP-

His walk rate remains elevated, but everything else settled down. This is, of course, a small sample size revolving around selective endpoints – but it also goes to show just how much a bad start or two can skew everything.

Current Stuff

Ross is somewhere between a three and five-pitch guy, depending on the game. Roughly eighty-percent of his offerings come in the form of a four-seam fastball or slider, and another fifteen percent are cutters. He’ll also mix in a sinker (4%) and a change-up (1%), but those are largely show-me pitches. He used his sinker quite a bit in 2014 and 2015 – his best seasons as a starter – but he’s moved away from it over the last three years.

His pitch selection isn’t the only thing that’s changed, either:

Ross’s velocity has been slowly yet steadily slipping since 2013, and he has to reach back to hit the mid-90s nowadays. His fastball has topped-out between 92 and 93 MPH in several outings, including his most recent start. It’s been fairly steady this year, though.

His best pitch is his slider, which – by FanGraphs’ wSL metric – the 12th best in the game among starting pitchers, just ahead of Max Scherzer. It’s a true swing-and-miss offering, and batters tend to beat it into the ground when they do manage to make contact. Just look at it:

The rest of his pitches are average (at best), but having one elite pitch always comes in handy.

Injury History

This is shaping up to be Ross’s first healthy season since 2015. His 2016 was over after one start, the result of persistent shoulder problems that led to thoracic outlet surgery, and he rehabbed until late-May. He’s been healthy – but not necessarily effective – since making his first Triple-A start on May 23 of last year. The Padres have given him extra rest a few times this season, but he has not missed a turn in the rotation as of this writing.

Contract Status

Ross is on a one-year deal worth $1.75 MM, so he’s strictly a rental – and he’ll count for less than $1 MM against the luxury tax.

What Would it Take?

Last year’s trade for Jaime Garcia feels like fair market value for someone like Ross. As a reminder, the Yankees sent Zack Littell and Dietrich Enns to the Twins in that deal, and neither ranked among the team’s top prospects. They were essentially organizational arms that were close enough to the majors to (in an ideal world) make an impact sooner rather than later.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

If the idea is to round-out the back of the rotation with a reliable starter, then yes. Shoulder injuries are scary, but Ross has been pitching regularly since May of last year, and seems to have regained a good amount of his pre-injury effectiveness. And, again, he’d be a rental, so the long-term concerns are out the window. While pitchers are never a sure thing, he seems a reasonably safe bet to be an upgrade in the fourth or fifth spot of the team’s rotation.

Ross is not, however, a good option to solve the Yankees ‘Severino, Sabathia, and pray for rain’ status quo. Though, few available pitchers are.

Scouting the Trade Market: Zach Britton

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(Presswire)

The trade deadline is exactly one week away and the oh so terrible Orioles have already started their teardown. Manny Machado was traded away last week and it’s only a matter of time until other impending free agents like Adam Jones, Brad Brach, and Zach Britton are traded away as well. No sense in keeping any of them. Get as much young talent as possible.

The Yankees, among many other teams, have shown interest in Britton in recent weeks. They don’t really need another reliever — the bullpen has been fantastic pretty much all season — but there’s always room for another quality arm out there, plus the Chasen Shreve roster spot can always been upgraded. There is never ever ever such a thing as too many good relievers. Does Britton make sense for the Yankees? Let’s look.

Injury History

Going to start here quick just to get it out of the way. Britton tore his Achilles during an offseason workout and needed surgery, and he didn’t return to the O’s until last month. Kind of a fluke injury, but it happened and it cost him quite a bit of time. Furthermore, Britton spent two stints and roughly three months total on the disabled list with a forearm strain last season. Forearm issues are a common precursor to Tommy John surgery, though it should be noted Britton returned last July and his forearm/elbow have been fine since.

Current Performance

Because of the Achilles injury, Britton hasn’t pitched a whole lot this season, and, even when he has pitched, he’s looked awfully rusty. Britton has a 3.45 ERA (4.43 FIP) with 20.6% strikeouts, 15.9% walks, and 61.1% grounders in 15.2 innings so far this season, though it should be noted he’s thrown eight scoreless innings with a 72.2% ground ball rate in his last eight appearances. He’s looking better and better the further he gets from the Achilles injury.

Last season, around the forearm trouble, Britton was merely very good rather than great. He threw 37.1 innings with a 2.89 ERA (3.40 FIP) with subpar strikeout (18.0%) and walk (11.2%) rates, but a great ground ball rate (72.6%). Back in 2016, the year he finished fourth in the Cy Young voting, Britton posted a 0.54 ERA (1.94 FIP) with excellent strikeout (29.1%) and ground ball (80.0%) rates. He was untouchable back then.

I’m not quite sure what a realistic expectation is for Britton going forward. You hope and pray you get the 2016 version, feel pretty good if you get the 2017 version, and hope you don’t have to settle for the 2018 version. Britton is throwing better lately, which is good. This year’s Achilles injury and last year’s forearm trouble have made him difficult to evaluate. Can he ever be close to 2014-16 Britton again?

Current Stuff

Once he moved to the bullpen full-time a few years ago Britton simplified his repertoire and became a sinker/curveball pitcher. During his peak his sinker would sit 96-97 mph and touch 99 mph. It was a hellacious pitch. Britton doesn’t have quite that much velocity now, though he has been adding some velocity this year as he gets further from the Achilles injury:

There’s also a bit more sink on the pitch now that there was when he first returned from the disabled list. I haven’t watched every one of his outings this season, but, from what I can gather, Britton is a guy who is still building some arm strength and shaking off rust following the long layoff. The sinker lacked it’s usual oomph and drop when he first returned. Now it’s coming back.

As for the curveball, it has always been more of a change-of-pace pitch than a put-away pitch for Britton. Even at his peak he only threw it about 10% of the time. Everything about the pitch (velocity, movement, etc.) is basically the same this year as previous years. Britton is a sinker specialist, and that sinker is starting to look like it did before the injuries, which is a good thing.

Contract Status

Like I said, Britton is a rental. He’s making a hefty $12M this season, and if the Yankees were to acquire him on trade deadline day, they would be charged with a pro-rated $4M luxury tax hit, which they can afford. (The trade deadline is, conveniently, exactly two-thirds of the way through the season this year.) Once he’s traded, Britton will be ineligible to receive the qualifying offer after the season, so no draft pick compensation.

What Will It Take?

This section is usually a pain in the behind, but rental relievers are traded every year, even great ones like Britton, so we have plenty of benchmarks. Granted, his injuries and general lack of work the last two seasons throws a wrench into things, but we can get a general idea what it’ll take to nab Britton. Some recent rental reliever trades:

Headliner Rest of Trade Package
Jeurys Familia
(NYM to OAK)		 $1M in IFA money Fringe top 30 prospects (Bobby Wahl, Will Toffey)
Brandon Kintzler
(MIN to WAS)		 Top 20 org. prospect (Tyler Watson) $500k in IFA money
Tony Watson
(PIT to LAD)		 Top 30 org. prospect (Oneil Cruz) Fringe top 30 prospect (Angel German)
Pat Neshek
(PHI to COL)		 Top 30 org. prospect (J.D. Hammer) Fringe top 30 prospects (Jose Gomez, Alejandro Requena)
Addison Reed
(NYM to BOS)		 Top 20 org. prospect (Jaime Callahan) Top 30 org. prospects (Gerson Bautista, Stephen Nogosek)
Mark Melancon
(PIT to WAS)		 MLB reliever (Felipe Vazquez) Top 10 org. prospect (Taylor Hearn)

I intentionally excluded the Aroldis Chapman trade because that was, very clearly, a special case. If the Orioles can get a Chapman-caliber package for Britton before the deadline, great, more power to them. The Yankees won’t be the ones to give it to them. At least I don’t think they will.

The Mets essentially salary dumped Familia, so I’m not sure that trade works as a benchmark for Britton. Kintzler had a limited track record, and Watson and Neshek had barely closed, which is somehow still a thing that matters. Reed and Melancon are the two best comparable trades here. If the Orioles would take three top 20-30 organizational prospects for Britton a la Reed, sign me the hell up. Pick any three and let’s do this, O’s.

The Melancon trade seems more appropriate because, like Britton, he was a multi-time All-Star closer who was in high demand. Felipe Vazquez was not yet FELIPE VAZQUEZ, but he was a lefty who threw 100 mph, and those dudes always have value. Hearn was a pretty good prospect too. Based on the Melancon trade, the Orioles wouldn’t be crazy to ask for an MLB roster player in return, plus more.

Keep in mind all the heavy hitters are after Britton. The Yankees, the Astros, the Red Sox, the Dodgers, the Phillies. The team that gets Britton will likely be the team that caves and gives up that extra prospect. Ultimately, Britton’s trade value is driven by supply and demand, not what similar relievers fetched in trades. Reed and Melancon are potential benchmarks. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Britton returns a larger package.

Does He Make Sense For The Yankees?

Oh sure. Shreve bailed Chapman out the other day and that was awesome. But it doesn’t mean the Yankees shouldn’t replace Shreve with someone better if given the opportunity. Two things to keep in mind here. One, Chapman is pitching through a knee issue that isn’t going anyway anytime soon. If the knee goes at some point, having a Proven Closer™ like Britton ready to step in would be pretty cool. Remember when Rafael Soriano stepped in for Mariano Rivera in 2012? Kinda like that, except we already know Chapman’s nursing a knee problem.

And two, the Yankees don’t get many innings from their starters other than Luis Severino, and even Severino will need his workload monitored down the stretch. That means more reliever innings to go around, and adding Britton means more of those reliever innings go to a top notch reliever. Look at it this way: Shreve’s roster spot is going to have to throw some high-leverage innings along the way no matter what. Wouldn’t you rather have Britton there than Shreve? Exactly.

The Yankees are in good shape because they don’t absolutely need bullpen help. Other teams like the Astros, Dodgers, and Red Sox are more desperate for a late-inning arm. Britton would be a luxury for the Yankees, truly. It is possible, if not likely, other teams will show more urgency and be more aggressive in their pursuit of Britton, which could push the Yankees out of the picture. I’m totally on board with adding another reliever and Britton would be ideal. Should the Yankees go all in for a bidding war? I think that’s up for debate.