Trade Deadline Archives - River Avenue Blues

The Yankees keep losing players to the injured list, so it’s not too early to look at the trade market

April 17, 2019 by Mike

The 2019 season is only 16 games old, but it already feels like the Yankees need to be active on the trade market. They have been decimated by injuries, many of them long-term. Luis Severino and Dellin Betances both suffered setbacks last week and are weeks away. Aaron Hicks is being brought along slowly, we still don’t have a return date for Didi Gregorius, and Miguel Andujar is potentially facing season-ending surgery. That ain’t good.

Normally mid-April would be too early — way too early — to begin considering trade scenarios. This is not a normal year though. The Yankees have many core players on the injured list and there is a single July 31st trade deadline now. No longer can teams wait things out knowing August trade waivers are a viable fallback plan. The single July 31st trade deadline figures to increase early-season trade activity, which is good news for the Yankees.

The injuries have created needs up and down the roster. Add in attrition rates and poor performances and preexisting roster needs, and yeah, there’s a good chance the Yankees will be active on the trade market in the coming weeks. So, with that in mind, let’s look ahead at what exactly they might need (subject to change, of course), why they might need it, and who they could target. Let’s dig in.

Starting Pitching

How likely will they need it? Very likely.

Why will they need it? Well, Severino just suffered a setback and is looking at a late-June/early-July return in the best case scenario, and that’s a pretty good reason. Also, it would be foolish to count on Jordan Montgomery having an impact so soon after Tommy John surgery. There’s no shame in trading for rotation help at midseason. Four of the last five World Series winners had to do it.

2018 Red Sox: Nathan Eovaldi
2017 Astros: Justin Verlander
2016 Cubs: No one!
2015 Royals: Johnny Cueto
2014 Giants: Jake Peavy

Lat strains are tricky and it doesn’t take much for six weeks on the shelf to turn into eight weeks and eight weeks to turn into ten weeks. The Yankees should get themselves some protection in case Severino is slowed (again). At a minimum, they should add an innings guy a la Lance Lynn last year. Preferably they would add someone they can put alongside Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton in a potential postseason rotation.

Possible Targets: Impending free agents on bad teams are always a good place to start. Madison Bumgarner will be the big name all summer and, honestly, I think it’s more likely the Giants sign him to an extension than trade him. He is a franchise icon. Does Cole Hamels become available if the Cubs continue to stink? I imagine the White Sox will flip Ivan Nova. The Angels could put Trevor Cahill and Matt Harvey out there. Mike Minor, Marcus Stroman, and Aaron Sanchez are either signed or under control in 2020, so they would be longer term pickups. Moreso than any other position, the pitching trade market seems to change constantly throughout the summer.

Bullpen

How likely will they need it? Probably. I mean, maybe. Chances are they will. But maybe not.

Why will they need it? The supposed Super Bullpen has been anything but super in the early going, and if that continues, yes, the Yankees will have little choice but to go out and get bullpen help at the trade deadline. If Chad Green and Zack Britton don’t get going and Betances is unable to make it back reasonably soon, adding a reliever at the deadline will be a must. Who would’ve thunk it? Baseball can be a real jerk sometimes.

That said, it is entirely possible the Yankees won’t need bullpen help at all come midseason. I mean, there’s always room for another quality reliever, but the Yankees won’t be as desperate for another bullpen arm if Green and Britton turn things around, Betances makes progress with his rehab, and someone like Joe Harvey carves out a role. I am definitely a “get as many good players as possible” guy. With the bullpen, the need isn’t quite as obvious as it is with the rotation, at least not yet. The Yankees can take a more wait-and-see approach here.

Possible Targets: With Betances hurting, the best impending free agent reliever is Giants lefty Will Smith, and San Francisco made him available over the winter. I can already see speculation of a Bumgarner/Smith package deal. The Orioles figure to make Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier available, and controllable relievers on bad teams like Drew Steckenrider (Marlins), Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera (White Sox), and Ken Giles (Blue Jays) are always candidates to move. Maybe pass on the Giles. The other guys are a different matter.

Outfield

“We feel getting Hicks back is like making a trade.” (Presswire)

How likely will they need it? More likely than you may think!

Why will they need it? Brett Gardner is not an every single day player at this point of his career and both Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton are hurt. Stanton’s injury might not be a long-term concern. Then again, the Yankees have already had several setback situations this year, so maybe play it safe? The Hicks injury went from day-to-day to week-to-week to two cortisone shots and maybe he’ll be able to begin rehab games before the end of April.

At the moment, the Yankees’ outfield depth chart looks like this:

Aaron Judge
Giancarlo Stanton (injured)
Aaron Hicks (injured)
Brett Gardner (shouldn’t be a full-time player at this point in his career)
Clint Frazier (has had injury problems the last two years)
Mike Tauchman
I guess Billy Burns?

You don’t have to try real hard to envision a scenario in which the Yankees need another bona fide center fielder at midseason, or at least another warm body for depth. The Yankees had Gardner, Hicks, Judge, and Stanton in the outfield last season, yet there were Shane Robinson and Neil Walker in right field in August, and Andrew McCutchen in September. There are more reasons to believe the Yankees will need to add an outfielder at some point this summer than there were at this time last year.

Possible Targets: As far as center fielders go, Jarrod Dyson is the name to keep in mind. The Diamondbacks will fall out of it eventually and he’s a rental. Dyson won’t hit a ton, but he can really go get the ball in center field and wreak havoc on the bases. Arizona teammate Adam Jones is another possibility. Yasiel Puig if the Reds don’t make a move up the standings? Not a crazy idea! With Judge under control through 2022 and both Stanton and Hicks signed long-term, I have to think the Yankees would focus on rentals should they make a play for an outfielder at the deadline.

Infield

How likely will they need it? It depends.

Why will they need it? The single July 31st trade deadline could be a headache for the Yankees with regards to their infield. Do they have enough time to evaluate Gregorius post-elbow reconstruction? Is it enough time to know whether Andujar is completely over his injury and will be able to avoid surgery? The Yankees have to hope the answer is yes and assume it will be no. Prepare to be without Andujar and prepare for a rusty Sir Didi.

With Gio Urshela already in the big leagues — he is out of minor league options and I don’t think the Yankees could count on him clearing waivers should his roster spot be needed for a returning player — the Yankees have pretty much exhausted their infield depth, especially since they don’t seem to like Tyler Wade all that much. At the very least, picking up a depth guy for Triple-A would make sense, something similar to the Adeiny Hechavarria trade last year. Another warm body just to be safe.

We know this much: The (latest) Greg Bird injury opens a spot for another bat. Even if everyone gets healthy and stays healthy the rest of the season, the Yankees could (should) slot Stanton into left field and move Gardner into a fourth outfielder’s role. That allows Luke Voit and the new mystery bat to share first base and DH. I prefer Justin Smoak. Maybe the Yankees get someone else instead. Point is, the Bird injury gives the Yankees an open spot for another hitter.

Possible Targets: Jose Abreu is the only rental first base option beyond Smoak and the White Sox have resisted trading him so long that I assume they’re going to sign him to an extension at some point. Would the Yankees take on money to get Edwin Encarnacion? (Should they?) Josh Harrison, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Wilmer Flores stand out as low-cost utility infielder types. Starlin Castro and Todd Frazier are more expensive options. The infield market could be a buyer’s market. I think there will be more supply than demand, and that’s good for the Yankees.

* * *

The combination of a single July 31st trade deadline and so many long-term injuries leads me to believe the Yankees will look for upgrades and depth aggressively on the trade market. Assuming they want to give themselves the best shot at contention, that is. Also, it’s not like they can wait around long either, because they could be looking at a double-digit deficit in the standings come June without help. The sooner the Yankees act, the better their chances to stay in the race all season. It really is that simple.

Scouting the DFA Market: Blake Swihart and Brad Miller

April 17, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Two American League division favorites designated a potentially useful bat for assignment in the last couple days. If the Yankees were fully or nearly healthy and performing, there wouldn’t be a role for either Blake Swihart or Brad Miller. The 2019 Yankees, however, may have the room for another offensive player.

So let’s see how Swihart and Miller stack up and could fit for the Yankees:

Blake Swihart

Despite an OK start at the plate, catcher/utility man Blake Swihart was DFA’d by the Red Sox on Tuesday before the first Yankees-Sox game of the season. Swihart has been in no man’s land for the last year, out of options but without a clear path to playing time despite the promise in his bat.

The 27-year-old backstop ranked 17th in Baseball America’s prospect rankings before the 2015 season (18th by MLB Pipeline) and it was his third time in BA’s rankings. Swihart looked like he could be a switch-hitting catcher who could be the full package on both sides of the ball. He was the No. 1 Red Sox prospect and No. 1 catching prospect in all of baseball.

After five seasons of getting jerked into different roles, Swihart finally got some semblance of normalcy as the backup catcher this season. He had six hits in his first 12 at-bats before an 0-for-14 skid ended his time in Boston.

His 88.3 mph exit velocity is right around league average, though his .364 xwOBA and 42.1 percent hard-hit rate indicates there may be more in his bat. He strikes out about a fourth of the time while sporting a walk rate near seven. Despite his switch-hitting, he should be a strict platoon bat as he fails to hit near average against left-handed pitching.

His defense leaves something to be desired. He has gotten better as a pitch framer and is league average, but Boston chose to upgrade defensively with Sandy Leon.

If we were a little later in the year, the Yankees’ poor record could help them in waiver priority, but as we are still in the first 30 days of the season, waivers go by last year’s standings. Oh well. There are enough team with questionable catching situations and the opportunity to let Swihart sink or swim that he should be claimed if the Red Sox can’t find a trade suitor.

Boston isn’t trading him to the Yankees. It’s not a tremendous loss, as the Bombers with a fully healthy Gary Sanchez don’t have a spot for him. If Sanchez were to miss an extended period, Swihart would be an upgrade over Kyle Higashioka at the plate and could enter into a platoon with Austin Romine. No, he’s not an improvement on Romine, at least not based on what he’s shown in the majors thus far. It’s a pipe dream that he’d join the Yankees, but hey, it’s not the craziest thing to happen.

Brad Miller

Miller, on the other hand, could actually find his way to pinstripes. That’s just my speculating — there hasn’t been reported interest on the Yankees’ part as of now — but the veteran infielder would be a temporary improvement for New York’s lineup.

The Indians DFA’d Miller with Jason Kipnis getting healthy, though Cleveland also did it in order to only give Miller the prorated portion of his $1 million contract instead of fully guaranteeing it by rostering him for a few more weeks. Miller’s 97 OPS+ and .742 OPS ranked third for the Indians’ paltry offense.

Cleveland was playing Miller at second base — he’s played everywhere on the infield in his career — but the Yankees wouldn’t have a need for him there. He doesn’t have the glove to man the middle infield all that well and is best confined to first base. He’s three years removed from hitting 30 homers for the Rays as a poor fielding shortstop.

Well, the Yankees have an opening at first. Greg Bird’s injury led to a call-up for Mike Ford, who has the potential to catch fire for a little while but is unlikely to last. Miller, meanwhile, has been a near-league-average hitter with some pop and has played a passable first base in his career. That’s not a ringing endorsement, but it’s an improvement over Bird’s lackluster season.

Miller would be available for $1 million via waivers or near league minimum in free agency and there aren’t many suitors for his services outside of the Yankees. There are enough DH at-bats (or first base ABs if you place Luke Voit at DH) free until the Yankees’ get healthy that he’d have a role right away.

There’s no need to wait for him to get back like another free agent signing. If he doesn’t hit or enough of Hicks/Stanton/Andujar/Sanchez get healthy, Miller could be jettisoned as quickly as he came in. But he does provide some upside as a former 30-home run hitter who does just enough with the bat to justify his lack of glove.

The Blue Jays are already selling and the Yankees should be after Justin Smoak

April 16, 2019 by Mike

Although the Yankees have 147 games remaining this year — their season is only 9.3% complete! — it already feels like they need some outside help. The injuries are mounting and, with CC Sabathia having returned over the weekend, it doesn’t seem like anyone is particularly close to coming back. The Yankees will be without several core players another few weeks.

April is typically way too early to consider trades, though things are different these days. There is a single July 31st trade deadline now and we are in baseball’s post-competitive era. Roughly one-third of the league is unabashedly tanking. Anything to improve amateur talent acquisition opportunities (part of it) and trim payroll (most of it) is encouraged and even celebrated in some circles.

The AL East rival Blue Jays are among those unapologetic tanking teams. Their pre-Vlad Guerrero Jr. lineup is inept — five times in 17 games this season they’ve been no-hit into the sixth inning — and the pitching staff beyond Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez is largely unrecognizable. Toronto is already selling off veterans:

March 27th: Traded Kendrys Morales to the A’s for Jesus Lopez and international bonus money.
April 2nd: Traded Kevin Pillar to the Giants for Derek Law, Alen Hansen, and Juan De Paula.

Law cleared waivers in February. Hansen was designated for assignment days prior to the trade. De Paula, who the Yankees sent to the Giants in the Andrew McCutchen trade, ranks 30th on MLB.com’s Blue Jays prospect list. Lopez is nowhere to be found on any prospect list. The Blue Jays saved $7.8M in those trades. That was their primary motivation.

It stands to reason the Blue Jays will trade more veterans in the coming weeks. Stroman could go, Sanchez could go, Ken Giles could go, Freddy Galvis could go, and Justin Smoak will very likely go. Smoak is an impending free agent and Toronto has a ready-made replacement in Rowdy Tellez. There’s no sense in keeping him, and that creates an opportunity for the Yankees, who could use a player like Smoak. Let’s talk it out.

1. He’s an upgrade over Greg Bird. Let’s be real here, the “better than Greg Bird” bar isn’t especially high these days. Bird is hitting .171/.293/.257 (58 wRC+) in the early going this season and he owns a .194/.287/.388 (80 wRC+) batting line in 522 plate appearances since Opening Day 2017. That is bad production for a defense first middle infielder. It is appalling for a bat only first baseman. That homer against Andrew Miller only goes so far.

By no means is Smoak a star. He is a solid player relative to his position who is a comfortably above-average hitter relative to the rest of the league. His last three seasons:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%	wRC+ vs. RHP	wRC+ vs. LHP
2017	637	.270/.355/.529	133	38	20.1%	11.5%	125	162
2018	594	.242/.350/.457	121	25	26.3%	14.0%	136	91
2019	56	.256/.429/.442	149	2	17.9%	19.6%	185	89

Real talk: If Greg Bird had put up numbers like Smoak’s from 2017-18, he would be talked about as a cornerstone Yankee and an extension candidate. I know like 46.347% of you clicked over here saying to yourself “ewww no not Justin Smoak,” but it’s true. Bird would’ve been un-damn-touchable with Smoak’s numbers.

Bird has not put up anything particularly close to Justin Smoak numbers though. Smoak is a switch-hitter who is most effective on the heavy side of the platoon, and he’ll draw walks without an excessive strikeout rate. Last week he reminded everyone he can turn around a 99 mph fastball and hit it out to the deepest part of the ballpark.

That is a no joke home run. Smoak elevated a 99 mph fastball at the knees and parked it in dead center field. Could you even imagine Greg Bird putting a 99 mph fastball in play right now? I can’t, because he’s literally never done it at the MLB level. Statcast says Bird has made contact with a 99+ mph fastball once in the big leagues, and that was a foul ball in September 2015. Yeah.

Also, there’s a defensive component here. Neither Bird nor Luke Voit is even average defensively at first base. The various numbers (I prefer Inside Edge at first base) indicate Smoak is average-ish at first. Average-ish qualifies as an upgrade for the Yankees, perhaps even a considerable one. Consider the lineup possibilities:

Current Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Justin Smoak
4. DH Luke Voit
5. SS Gleyber Torres
6. 2B DJ LeMahieu
7. LF Clint Frazier
8. 3B Gio Urshela
9. C Austin Romine

Healthy Yankees
1. CF Aaron Hicks
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
4. 1B Justin Smoak
5. DH Luke Voit
6. C Gary Sanchez
7. SS Didi Gregorius
8. 3B Miguel Andujar
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

That “Healthy Yankees” lineup is almost certainly never going to happen, but a man can dream. The “Current Yankees” lineup though? Slotting in Smoak rather than Bird makes it look so much better. He fits in nicely between the two big righty bats, provides lineup balance as a switch-hitter, and oh yeah he actually provides some thump. That’s kind of a big deal. Bird to Triple-A and Smoak at first base is a clear multi-win upgrade.

2. He’s already familiar with the AL East. Is this is a reason to make a trade? Not necessarily, but it isn’t something to ignore either. This is Smoak’s fifth season with the Blue Jays (already?). He is an AL East veteran. He knows the ballparks and he knows the cities, and, most importantly, he knows the opposing pitchers. For the Yankees to get where they want to go this year, they’ll have to beat the Red Sox and Rays, and Smoak is familiar with those teams. That familiarity with the AL East could help his post-trade transition. It’s not nothing.

3. His contract is not onerous. Smoak reached some plate appearance salary escalators in his contract the last few years and will earn $8M this season. That’s all. The season is nearly three weeks old now and Smoak is still owed roughly $7.15M the rest of the way. Cot’s says the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll is at $226.7M right now, so they’re over the $226M second luxury tax tier. That $7.15M becomes $9.44M in real money when adding in the luxury tax.

Even then, the Yankees should be willing to add $9.44M to payroll in an effort to stay in the postseason race. The way things are going right now, I’m not sure they can expect to be within striking distance of the division title by time guys get healthy. The Yankees need help now. Not weeks from now. Also, the Yankees could get the Blue Jays to eat some money to make it work. They’ve done that with various trades in the recent past and could do it again. Point is, this is rental player with a reasonable salary. If Smoak doesn’t work for the Yankees financially, I’m not sure anyone will.

4. It shouldn’t cost much to get him. What other contending teams need a first baseman (or a DH)? I suppose the Athletics could get involved if Matt Olson’s recovery from hand surgery doesn’t go well. They already traded for Morales though, so probably not. Maybe the Nationals or Rockies? That’s pretty much it. The Blue Jays are likely hoping some contender gets hit with a first base injury to create a trade market for Smoak. The Yankees, if you haven’t noticed, have a need for him due to injuries.

What are the Blue Jays getting for Smoak beyond salary relief, realistically? Toronto is not getting anything close to a Paul Goldschmidt package for Smoak. Yonder Alonso was traded for a non-top-30 prospect over the winter. Steve Pearce was traded for a non-top-30 prospect last summer. C.J. Cron bounced around waivers over the winter. Smoak is a solid Major Leaguer, but I’m not sure the demand for first base only guys has ever been as low as it is right now.

The Yankees have pitching prospects in spades. They could put a Rule 5 Draft eligible 40-man roster bubble guy like Nick Nelson on the table, or a lower level arm like Juan Then or Rony Garcia, and make the Blue Jays say no. The alternative is continuing to pay Smoak while waiting (and hoping) for a market to develop, and possibly losing him for nothing as a free agent after the season. I think the price to get him would be very easy to swallow.

* * *

My guess is the Blue Jays are motivated to trade Smoak. The sooner they move him, the more money they save — trading Pillar and his $5.8M salary for minimal return tells you they consider no salary too small to dump — and it also opens up first base for Tellez. I imagine their rest-of-season plan is effectively a three-man first base/third base/DH rotation with Vlad Jr., Tellez, and Brandon Drury. Smoak’s not a long-term piece. Those guys are (or might be, at least).

Last year’s J.A. Happ trade shows the Yankees and Blue Jays can get together for a trade. There’s no outdated “oh no we can’t trade within the division!” logic in play here. We know the Yankees and Blue Jays will trade with one another because we saw them do it recently. One way or another, Smoak’s time in Toronto is coming to an end soon. The Yankees need help now and Smoak would be an upgrade on both sides of the ball at first base without breaking the bank. It fits.

Baseball is going to a single trade deadline and it complicates things for the Yankees

March 14, 2019 by Mike

Earlier today, MLB and the MLBPA jointly announced a series of rather significant rule changes. Most notably, there will be a 26th roster spot and a limit on September call-ups beginning in 2020. I really dislike limiting September call-ups. Blah. Here is the full press release. Make sure you check it out.

As part of the rule changes, baseball will transition to a single July 31st trade deadline beginning this season. That means August (and September!) waiver trades are no more. Gotta love MLB’s ability to fix things that aren’t broken. Anyway, Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) and Jeff Passan reported this was coming yesterday. Here’s Passan with an explanation:

What will be in place come this summer are a single July 31 trade deadline and (a single All-Star Game voting) Election Day. Deals after the non-waiver deadline made August a hotbed for incremental upgrades by teams, and the union’s hope is that getting rid of them will incentivize teams to be more aggressive in the offseason knowing that the fallback for August deals no longer is an option.

Rosenthal says “indecipherable trade waivers” are “baseball’s version of the U.S. tax code,” which is a bit extreme to me, but whatever. Bottom line is there will be no more trades after July 31st going forward. No more worrying about trade waivers or postseason eligibility or anything like that. August is really going to feel like the dog days of summer without trade rumors to break up the monotony.

The Yankees have not been all that active on the August trade waiver market in recent years. The Andrew McCutchen trade last year is far and away their most notable August trade in quite a while. Their last August trade of note prior to that was probably adding Chad Gaudin in 2009. Or maybe getting Brendan Ryan in September 2013. The Yankees did trade away Ben Gamel in an August deal, so I guess that counts.

Despite their general August inactivity, a single July 31st deadline will create some headaches for the Yankees, and all teams really. If you’re a contender, you have that much less time to improve and no way to react to August and September injuries. If you’re a rebuilder, you have less time to shop your players. If you’re a bubble team, you have to pick a path earlier in the summer. No more seeing what happens in August before deciding what to do.

Aaron Judge suffered his broken wrist on July 26th last year. The Yankees would’ve had five days to find a replacement under the new single trade deadline, which means no waiting out the market for McCutchen — getting McCutchen for nothing in particular on August 31st was a hell of a deal — and it means paying a premium at the deadline because teams would’ve known the Yankees were desperate for outfield help and running short on time.

The new single trade deadline makes optionable depth players much more valuable. Contending teams have to not only get the roster help they need prior to July 31st, but also secure contingency plans. Guys who can go up and down to Triple-A without waivers are ideal. I wonder if we’ll see more optionable relievers and utility guys get traded at the deadline now. Players like Jonathan Holder and Tyler Wade become that much more important.

At the moment the Yankees are in good shape with optional depth. Wade’s an optionable infielder, Clint Frazier is an optionable outfielder, Kyle Higashioka is an optional catcher, Greg Bird is an optional first baseman, Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga are optionable starters. That’s right now though. Who knows what the Yankees will look like on July 31st? August trade waivers meant the Yankees didn’t have to rush into anything when Judge got hurt.

Is there a loophole here? Could the Giants have released McCutchen in August with a gentleman’s agreement that he’d sign with the Yankees after clearing waivers (assuming he clears waivers!), then the Yankees trade San Francisco prospects (and any necessary cash) for future considerations in the offseason to complete the deal? Unlike trade waivers, teams couldn’t claim McCutchen just to block him. They’d have to take him and his salary on. A move like this would be tricky.

Passan and Rosenthal say the MLBPA hopes teams will be more aggressive in the offseason knowing they can’t get help in August and eh, I’m not sure about that. Would a single trade deadline help Dallas Keuchel or Craig Kimbrel find work? I don’t think so. Tons of teams can use them and they’ve yet to receive an offer to their liking. Would Adam Jones remain unsigned until mid-March with a single trade deadline? Yeah, I think so. I guess we’ll find out in time.

McCutchen trade aside, the Yankees have not been very active on the trade waiver market, but that doesn’t mean a single trade deadline won’t complicate things for Brian Cashman & Co. moving forward. Waiver trades were always available if the Yankees needed help, which they did when Judge got hurt last year. Now they’re no longer available. More than anything, this means hoping for good health after July 31st more than ever before.

Saturday Links: deGrom, Torres, Sheffield, Triple-A

September 22, 2018 by Mike

The Yankees and Orioles continue their three-game series later this afternoon, with the penultimate regular season game at Yankee Stadium this year. That’s a 4pm ET start. Remember when they played baseball at 1pm ET on Saturdays? Those were the days. Anyway, here are some notes to check out.

Mets needed top young players for deGrom

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees were one of five teams the Mets focused on during Jacob deGrom trade talks at the deadline, though they weren’t doing a deal without getting top young players in return. That presumably means Gleyber Torres. The Mets also discussed deGrom with the Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, and Padres, and Heyman indicates they wanted Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from Toronto and Fernando Tatis Jr. from San Diego. So yeah, the best of the best prospects.

deGrom has been the best pitcher in baseball this season and he’s under team control another two years, so the Mets were absolutely correct in demanding tippy top prospects. Not asking for Gleyber would’ve been negligent. I love Miguel Andujar, he’s the man, but I wouldn’t trade deGrom for a package fronted by Andujar. I’d need a better centerpiece and that’s Torres. If the Mets don’t contend next year, the asking price on deGrom could come down because he’ll have less control remaining and also because he probably won’t be this good again. That said, the Yanks-Mets blockbuster trade hurdle still exits. As I’ve been saying, I need to see these two teams make a trade of this caliber to believe it.

Sheffield could make postseason roster

File this under “it’s probably not going to happen,” but Aaron Boone did leave the door open for Justus Sheffield to make the postseason roster. “You never know how the next couple weeks unfold. I’m mindful of this time that a lot changes day to day, every couple of days, week to week, depending on need, depending on performance, depending on how guys are looking,” said Boone to Brendan Kuty earlier this week when asked about the possibility.

Sheffield, 22, made his MLB debut the other night and it wasn’t pretty, but he did throw a scoreless inning in a blowout win. There are nine regular season games remaining and I don’t see how Sheffield could do enough to make the postseason roster, even as an extra lefty. Six bullpen spots are already accounted for (Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Chad Green, David Robertson, Jonathan Holder) plus I assume Lance Lynn will be in the postseason bullpen as well. There doesn’t seem to be room for Sheffield, but hey, stranger things have happened.

Sheffield among top IL prospects

In other Justus Sheffield news, Baseball America (subs. req’d) started their annual series looking at the top 20 prospects in each minor league earlier this week, and Sheffield was ranked as the seventh best prospect in the Triple-A International League this year. White Sox OF Eloy Jimenez, who the Yankees reportedly could’ve had rather than Gleyber Torres in the Aroldis Chapman trade, sits in the top spot. (Jimenez went to the ChiSox in the Jose Quintana trade.)

“Sheffield’s fastball worked 93-97 mph and he steadily improved his command of it, making it a true plus pitch,” says the write-up, which also mentions his changeup is too firm at the moment. He needs to create more velocity separation between his fastball and changeup. No other Yankees prospects make the IL top 20, which isn’t surprising. The Triple-A lists tend to be loaded with top 100 prospects and that leaves guys like Chance Adams and Erik Swanson on the outside looking in. (Mike King didn’t throw enough Triple-A innings to qualify for the list.)

Triple-A leagues to begin using MLB baseballs

Starting next season, the two Triple-A leagues (International League and Pacific Coast League) will begin using baseballs made to Major League specifications, reports J.J. Cooper. Major League and minor league baseballs are made with different seams and a different cover, and the Major League ball tends to carry farther. That’s why many young players (e.g. Gleyber Torres) come up and hit for more power in the big leagues than they had in the minors. The switch next year will approximately double what Triple-A teams pay for baseballs throughout the season.

It is kinda dumb MLB and minor league (and college) leagues use different baseballs, but it’s all about cost. Teams don’t want to spend more on baseballs than they have to, so inferior baseballs are used in the minors. At least now the Triple-A and MLB balls will be uniform. Offense will increase in Triple-A — the PCL league average was .270/.340/.423 this year and that’s only going to go up with the new ball, so that’s fun — thought at least it’ll be a little easier to put Triple-A statistics into context. I get the sense a lot of fringe MLB pitchers are in for a rude awakening in 2019.

The Yankees were active at the trade deadline and so far all their moves are having a big impact

September 20, 2018 by Mike

At some point soon, possibly before the end of the homestand, the Yankees will clinch a spot in the postseason. They’re not going to win the AL East — the Yankees need to go no worse than 10-1 the rest of the way while the Red Sox go 0-10 for that to happen — so a spot in the Wild Card Game will have to do. That’s okay. Just get in and you can win.

The Yankees have the third best record in baseball and they’re going to return to the postseason for a lot of reasons, including this year’s trade deadline pickups. The incumbents have been pretty good! But they needed help, so Brian Cashman and his staff were very active prior to both the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline and the August 31st postseason-eligibility deadline. They imported:

Two new starting pitchers (J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn).
A new first baseman (Luke Voit).
Another late-inning reliever (Zach Britton).
A new leadoff hitter and corner outfielder (Andrew McCutchen).

The Yankees also added a new utility infielder (Adeiny Hechavarria) and gobs of international bonus money at the deadline(s), though those are relatively minor additions. The other moves were much more significant. The Yankees turned over 40% of the rotation, two starting lineup spots, and added another end-game arm.

And, so far, just about all of those moves are paying big dividends. Lynn has been more serviceable than good, but, considering who he replaced (Sonny Gray), serviceable qualifies as a big upgrade. Happ has been outstanding in eight of his nine starts, including two nights ago against the Red Sox. Voit socked two more dingers last night and has nine in 29 games with the Yankees.

I don’t know whether they’d admit it, but I know Cashman and Aaron Boone and everyone else in the organization did not expect Voit to have this much impact. If they did, he wouldn’t have been sent to Triple-A Scranton (twice). Greg Bird was struggling, Voit got an opportunity, and he’s run with it. Voit went from first base platoon option to full-time first baseman. He’s given the lineup a huge lift.

Britton had a rocky start to his Yankees tenure but has really settled in lately. He’s allowed three runs (two earned) in his last 13 appearances and 14 innings while holding opponents to a .149/.180/.213 batting line. Britton has an 80.6% ground ball rate with the Yankees. That works out to 50 ground balls and 12 non-ground balls among 62 balls in play. He came in handy when Aroldis Chapman went down.

To me, McCutchen has been every bit as important as Happ and Voit and Britton. He only just got here, I know, but the Yankees had a revolving door in right field while Aaron Judge was on the disabled list, and McCutchen put an end to that. Now, with Judge back, he’s slid over to left field to replace the ineffective Brett Gardner, giving the Yankees another offensive threat. I love Gardner, he’s been a great Yankee, but it wasn’t working and a change had to made.

Last night McCutchen reached base three times in the blowout win over the Red Sox and he’s reached base 24 times in his last eleven games. The batting average is still a little low (.216), but McCutchen owns a .414 OBP as a Yankees, and that has been a game-changer atop the lineup. The leadoff spot (mostly Gardner) had a .205/.319/.298 (72 wRC+) batting line in 40 games from the All-Star break through August 31st. Can’t have that. McCutchen fixed it.

“It doesn’t have to be splashy. It just has to work,” said Cashman following the July 31st deadline. And so far, every just about every move the Yankees made has worked. Happ has steadied the rotation and forms a potentially very good postseason front three with the locked in Masahiro Tanaka and the seemingly rejuvenated Luis Severino. Britton makes the bullpen better and McCutchen and Voit have made the lineup that much deeper.

Keep in mind that, unlike some other teams, the Yankees were active at the trade deadline because they had to be. The Red Sox were in great shape and were able to add pieces like Nathan Eovaldi and Ian Kinsler to make their roster even better. The Yankees were more desperate for upgrades. Judge was hurt, Gray and Domingo German were becoming untenable, so was Bird, and Chapman’s achy knee was in the back of everyone’s mind. These were “we really need these guys to contend” moves. Not just upgrades to the fringes of the roster, you know?

Unlike last year, when they targeted players with long-term control, the Yankees focused on rentals this year. That’s probably just a coincidence given the way he market shook out, though I wonder whether getting burned by Gray (and Tommy Kahnle, to some degree) led to the Yankees looking for lower cost short-term moves. Either way, it’s worked quite well. The Yankees don’t really miss anyone they gave up — maybe they will one day, but right now? nah — and the players they received have all become important contributors. The trade deadline was a smashing success.

Saturday Links: Donaldson Trade, A-Rod, Luxury Tax Payroll

September 15, 2018 by Mike

The final homestand of the 2018 regular season continues later today with the middle game of the three-game series against the Blue Jays. That’s a 4:05pm ET start. Here are some links and notes to check out in the meantime.

Yankees among teams upset about Donaldson trade

According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Yankees are among the teams to reach out to MLB to voice displeasure with the Josh Donaldson trade. Specifically, they are unhappy Donaldson was deemed healthy enough to be placed on trade waivers, only to have the Indians place him right back on the disabled list right after the trade. Rosenthal says the Red Sox and Astros also weren’t happy with the deal. The teams that might face Cleveland in the postseason, basically.

Players have to be on the active roster or on a minor league rehab assignment to be placed on trade waivers. Donaldson had been out since May with a calf injury, then conveniently started a rehab assignment a few days before the August 31st postseason-eligibility deadline. He cleared waivers, was activated, then was traded and put right back on the disabled so he could play more rehab games. Fishy. That said, the Yankees (and Red Sox and Astros) would’ve done the same thing in a heartbeat. Don’t like it? Then you should’ve claimed Donaldson on trade waivers to block a deal. (Donaldson went unclaimed, so he was free to be traded anywhere.)

A-Rod hoping for Hall of Fame call

We are three years away from Alex Rodriguez’s name appearing on the Hall of Fame ballot, and, when the time comes, he hopes to get into Cooperstown. Can’t say I’m surprised. A-Rod spoke about about his Hall of Fame hopes during a recent feature with, uh, Cigar Aficionado? Cigar Aficionado. Here’s a partial transcript of the video:

“There’s rules, and you have to follow the rules. I made those mistakes, and at the end of the day I have to live by those mistakes. Whether I get in or not — and let’s be clear, I want to get in, I hope I get in, I pray I get in — if I don’t, I think I have a bigger opportunity yet again. And the platform of my mistakes, the good the bad and the ugly, has allowed me to have a loud voice to the next generation, to say when in doubt, just look at my career … The other message is, maybe I’m not a Hall of Fame player, but I get a chance to be a Hall of Fame dad, a Hall of Fame friend.”

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have made some gains on the Hall of Fame ballot in recent years, though they’re still well short of induction, and neither guy served a year-long performance-enhancing drug suspension like A-Rod. Rodriguez hits the ballot in 2021 and he can remain on the ballot ten years. That’s a long time — he can potentially remain on the ballot until 2031 — and lots of minds can change. Right now, I don’t think he’ll get in. Come 2031? Who knows.

Should A-Rod ever make the Hall of Fame, he’d have to go in as a Yankee, right? He played more games with the Yankees (1,509) than the Mariners and Rangers combined (1,275). Same deal with homers (351 vs. 345), though not WAR (+54.2 vs. +63.6). Also, Rodriguez won two of his three MVPs in New York and also his only World Series ring. Yeah, he’d had to go in as a Yankee. No question.

Yankees on track to stay under luxury tax threshold

According to Ronald Blum, the Yankees are indeed on track to stay under the $197M luxury tax threshold this season. I’ve been doing my best to keep tabs on the team’s luxury tax payroll situation all season, and I’m glad to have some confirmation. I had the payroll at $191.8M (without bonuses) in my last estimate. Blum’s source in the commissioner’s office has the payroll at $192.1M. I’m quite proud my estimate is within half-a-million bucks.

The Yankees will have to pay out some playing time bonuses (CC Sabathia’s innings, Neil Walker’s plate appearances, etc.), plus Chance Adams was called up two days ago, and that adds to the luxury tax payroll. Even with all that, they have plenty of room to get under the threshold. Blum says the Red Sox ($238.4M payroll) and Nationals ($203.9M) are the only teams over the luxury tax threshold this year. The Dodgers, like the Yankees, trimmed payroll this year to get under the threshold.