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Red Sox 5, Yankees 4: Comeback falls short in ALDS Game 1

October 5, 2018 by Mike

You know, when the other team tries to hand you a game like that, you really should take it. The Yankees had more than enough chances against the soft underbelly of the Red Sox bullpen in Game One of the ALDS on Friday night, but The Big Hit never came. The final score was 5-4. The Yankees have lost Game One of their last four postseason series (2012 ALCS, 2017 ALDS, 2017 ALCS, 2018 ALDS).

Sh*t Happ-ens
Good gravy what a disaster start for J.A. Happ. I never really put much stock into the whole “he was great against the Red Sox!” thing — how much more evidence do we need showing player vs. team splits are not predictive? — I thought he should’ve started Game One because he’s been the Yankees’ best pitcher for weeks now. See how easy that is? No need to overthink these things. Start your best available guy in Game One.

Anyway, Happ was a disaster. Thirteen pitches into the game the Yankees were down 3-0. Happ struck out Mookie Betts (hooray!), gave up a ground ball single to Andrew Benintendi (groin), walked Steve Pearce on four pitches (oh come on), and then gave up a three-run home run to J.D. Martinez. The home run pitch wasn’t even in the strike zone:

Credit to Martinez for being such a good hitter and doing damage on that pitch. Setting that up with the four-pitch walk to Pearce was pretty bad. Happ pitched him scared. Pearce hit that grand slam last week and he didn’t see anything close to the strike zone. It was an easy walk. No tough takes. Free baserunners at Fenway and free baserunners in front of Martinez are bad, bad news.

Following a 1-2-3 second inning against the bottom of the order, Happ gave up a booming double to Mookie Betts — Betts thought he walked on the previous pitch, which would’ve been preferable to the double — and a bunt single to Benintendi. The bunt was in no man’s land. No one had a play on it. Luke Voit had to field it and neither Happ nor Gleyber Torres were going to beat Benintendi to the bag.

And that was it. Happ’s night was over after eleven batters. He allowed five of those eleven to reach base and left behind runners on the corners with no outs. Chad Green allowed both inherited runners to score on a single and two fly balls. Happ’s final line: 2 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR on 44 pitches. Bad. Bad bad bad. The Yankees acquired him for starts like this and he didn’t make it out of the third.

Nothing Against Sale
Chris Sale’s velocity returned Friday night. Kinda. After averaging 90.2 mph with his fastball in his final regular season start last week, he averaged 94.7 mph on Friday, which good but still a notch below his 96.1 mph pre-shoulder injury average. Also, Sale didn’t hold that velocity. His fastball averaged 91.7 mph in the fifth inning. Clearly, Sale’s still not 100% right.

And, obviously, it didn’t matter. Sale gave the Yankees a taste of their anti-fastball medicine and fed them more combined sliders (33) and changeups (17) than fastballs (44). Through five innings Sale held the Yankees to three singles and two walks while striking out eight. He back-doored his sliders to the Yankees’ right-handed batters all night and there was nothing they could do with it. I mean:

The pitch starts way the hell out there *waves left hand* and winds up all the way over here *waves right hand*. Sale has a great slider. He threw the Yankees a lot of sliders. They had trouble with it. Not really a mystery what happened here, right? Even without his tippy top velocity, Sale was able to be (very) effective because his secondary pitches are so good.

Chances Against The Bullpen
It wasn’t until the sixth inning, when he was clearly running out gas, that the Yankees broke through against Sale. Aaron Judge smoked a leadoff single to center and Giancarlo Stanton smoked a one-out single to center. Sale’s pitch count was up over 90 and the Yankees were starting to square him up. Red Sox manager Alex Cora went to his bullpen and that’s where it got dicey.

Rather than go to Nathan Eovaldi, who was reportedly available in relief but not used, Cora went to 31-year-old rookie Ryan Brasier, who gave up a hard-hit single to Luke Voit and a run-scoring fielder’s choice to Didi Gregorius. Two runs on the board. Braiser walked Miguel Andujar (not easy to do!) before giving way to Brandon Workman, who walked Gary Sanchez to load the bases with two outs.

For the Yankees, this was Blown Opportunity No. 1. Andujar and Sanchez got nothing to hit, so they took their walks. Torres also got nothing to hit. He worked the count full and saw six pitches, but only five were in the strike zone. Torres struck out. The pitch locations:

Gah. To be fair, Workman threw Gleyber five straight fastballs, then broke off a nasty curveball for the swing-and-miss strikeout, but yeah. Torres is a very impressive rookie who’s shown an advanced approach all season. Right there though, he needed to show a little more patience. Workman was very willing to put him on base.

Blown Opportunity No. 2 came in the seventh inning. Two singles and a walk loaded the bases with no outs. Workman allowed the singles to Andrew McCutchen and Judge, and Matt Barnes walked Brett Gardner. Bases loaded situations have been the Yankees’ kryptonite this year. I don’t get it. They hit .253/.292/.440 (93 OPS+) with the bases loaded during the regular season. They ranked 20th in AVG, 20th in OBP, 12th in SLG, and 17th in OPS+.

Stanton struck out for the first out. He swung through a high fastball for strike one, fouled away a fastball for strike two, then saw three straight curveballs until finally one was good enough to get a swing-and-miss. Then, with one out, Voit hit a weak tapper to third base that had serious 5-4-3 double play potential. Fortunately Gardner slid in hard (and clean) at second base, forcing a weak throw from Ian Kinsler, allowing Voit to beat it. A run scored.

Gregorius followed with a grounder to second to end the inning. So, at one point spanning the sixth and seventh innings, eight of eleven Yankees reached base, and they had four at-bats with the bases loaded. Those at-bats went strikeout, strikeout, grounder, grounder. Not one ball out of the infield. The difference in this game: When the Red Sox had a prime run-scoring opportunity, Martinez hit a three-run homer. When the Yankees had prime run-scoring opportunities, they hit into fielder’s choices. Homers win games, folks.

Judge cranked a solo home run against Craig Kimbrel in the ninth — it was one of those homers only Judge can hit, it looked like a jam shot bloop (I thought to myself “get down! get down!”) and it wound up in the bullpen — to get the Yankees to within 5-4, but it wasn’t enough. Kimbrel struck out the next three batters to end the game. The Yankees sent 19 men to the plate against the Red Sox bullpen and eight reached base (.421 OBP). Still not good enough.

Don’t get mad at me. No one took a picture of Stanton striking out.
(Elsa/Getty)

Leftovers
Green’s first three batters: 102.4 mph single, 106.5 mph fly ball to the warning track, 101.9 mph fly ball. Yikes. The Red Sox are a great fastball hitting team. Maybe use David Robertson as the mid-inning fireman the rest of the series? The bendy stuff gives the Yankees a better chance at a strikeout. The bullpen was great though. Four relievers (Green, Lance Lynn, Zach Britton, David Robertson) allowed just those two inherited runners in seven innings.

Stanton had a base hit that helped start the team’s first rally and he still managed to have a terrible game. He struck out with a runner on first in the first, with a runner on first in the fourth, with the bases loaded in the seventh, and while representing the tying run in the ninth. Kimbrel worked him over in the ninth. Three pitches and Stanton took them all. He jelly-legged the strike three breaking ball. He’ll be on some backpages Saturday.

The Yankees had ten hits and five walks. The Red Sox had eight hits and three walks. The problem? The Yankees did not have an extra-base hit until Judge’s ninth inning home run. Singles and walks will only take you so far. The Yankees needed a game-breaking hit and no one provided it. That they managed to score four runs and make the game as close as it was tells you how good the offense is and how crummy the Red Sox bullpen is.

Every starter reached base at least once. Judge had three hits and a homer — he is 10-for-23 (.435) with five homers in his last seven postseason games dating back to last year — and Voit had two hard-hit singles. Aaron Hicks had a single and a walk before leaving the game with a tight right hamstring in the fourth inning. He’s going for an MRI in the morning. That could be bad.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
ESPN has the box score and MLB has the video highlights. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
Game Two. About as much of a must-win as it gets without being a literal must-win. Masahiro Tanaka and David Price are the scheduled starters for Saturday night. That’s an 8:15pm ET start.

Update: Hicks exits ALDS Game One with tight hamstring

October 5, 2018 by Mike

12:04am ET: Here’s what Aaron Boone said after the game: “He’ll get examined further tomorrow, and have an MRI and everything. He felt like it might have been cramping, so we’ll just have to see. I haven’t personally spoken to him yet since he’s come out of the game. Hopefully we’ll have a clearer picture tomorrow when he gets up and we get some pictures, too.”

9:47pm ET: Hicks left the game with a tight right hamstring, the Yankees say. He had a tight left hamstring the last week of the regular season, so this is a new injury. He’s going for tests.

8:54pm ET: Well this is bad. Aaron Hicks exited ALDS Game One in the fourth inning tonight with an apparently leg injury. He shot a single to right field and jogged to first base, then kinda doubled over in pain. Hicks missed time with a tight hamstring in the final week of the regular season. Brett Gardner took over on the bases and in center field. Here’s the play:

The Yankees have not yet announced an update on Hicks, so stay tuned. He’s been one of their best players all season and losing him for any length of time would be bad. As a reminder, the Yankees can replace Hicks on their ALDS roster if he’s hurt, but, if they do, he will not be eligible to play in the ALCS. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that.

2018 ALDS Game One: Yankees at Red Sox

October 5, 2018 by Mike

The AL East race has extended into the postseason. The 162-game regular season wasn’t enough to decide who gets to advance. Tonight, the Yankees and Red Sox open the best-of-five ALDS at Fenway Park. From a fan’s perspective, this will be the best and worst series ever. The highs and lows can be extreme.

Three times previously the Yankees and Red Sox have met in the postseason. The Yankees won the 1999 ALCS in five games and the 2003 ALCS in seven games. I reckon we’ll see a certain home run highlight from that series a few times these next few days. The 2004 ALCS was mysteriously canceled after Game Three. Still unexplained. In all seriousness, it’s been a very long time since these clubs met in October. New faces but the same rivalry.

Boston won the season series 10-9 with a +14 run differential. Weirdly, there were a lot of blowouts. Seven of those 19 games were decided by at least seven runs. Only four were decided by two or fewer runs. I feel like, right now, the Yankees have their strongest roster of the year. Guys are healthy and some midseason pickups have paid huge dividends. What happened from April through September isn’t all that predictive in a short postseason series when teams match up this evenly.

If you care about such things, ZiPS has the Yankees with a slightly higher probability of winning the ALDS than the Red Sox (52.4% vs. 47.6%). A coin flip series. I’m not sure any outcome in any number of games would surprise me. Here are tonight’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Andrew McCutchen
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. CF Aaron Hicks
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. 1B Luke Voit
6. SS Didi Gregorius
7. 3B Miguel Andujar
8. C Gary Sanchez
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

LHP J.A. Happ

Boston Red Sox
1. RF Mookie Betts
2. LF Andrew Benintendi
3. 1B Steve Pearce
4. DH J.D. Martinez
5. SS Xander Bogaerts
6. 3B Eduardo Nunez
7. 2B Ian Kinsler
8. C Sandy Leon
9. CF Jackie Bradley Jr.

LHP Chris Sale

It is a crystal clear night in Boston and chilly. Postseason weather. Tonight’s game will begin at 7:32pm ET and you can watch on TBS and TBS.com. Enjoy the game, folks.

Rotation Update: As expected, Luis Severino will start Game Three and CC Sabathia will start Game Four (if necessary), Aaron Boone announced. Severino will be on normal rest in Game Three following his Wild Card Game start. Sabathia is available in relief tonight, probably in an emergency only.

Roster Notes: Tyler Wade, Luis Cessa, and Kyle Higashioka were all sent to Tampa to stay sharp in case they have to be added to the roster at some point. Sonny Gray is doing the same but is in New York. I believe Greg Bird and Ronald Torreyes are with the Yankees in Boston. Here’s the ALDS roster.

Guest Post: 2018 ALDS Umpire Review

October 5, 2018 by Mike

The following is a guest post from Adam Seth Moss, who’s written tons of guest posts over the years.

Tonight, the Yankees and Red Sox open the 2018 ALDS, so let’s preview the umpire crew for the best-of-five series.

Cory Blaser (No. 89 – HP Game 1)

In a bit of a surprise, Cory Blaser is our home plate umpire for the 2018 American League Division Series opener against the Boston Red Sox. Unlike the Wild Card Game, where we had six umpires that were mostly hitters umpires, we have an average umpire by definition. Cory Blaser has a 3.80 ERA in the 2018 season (68th of 89, tied with Nick Mahrley) and a 1.26 WHIP. Batters have an 8.4/hits per 9, 3.0/walks per 9 and an 8.7/strikeouts per 9 record with Blaser behind the plate. Batters also have a .245/.310/.399 batting line. None of these really jump out in any fashion and fall about average or just below it.

The native of Denver, Colorado made his MLB debut on April 24, 2010 in a doubleheader at Coors Field between the Colorado Rockies and the Florida Marlins under Joe West’s crew. If it gives you an idea how consistent he is, this is Blaser’s fourth straight postseason assignment, the third straight in the Division Series level. Blaser has 14 career ejections, 12 of which have come in the National League. The two in the AL are of Alex Rios and Gene Glynn, so it can be assumed there is no Yankee experience attached. Only of note was Martin Prado ejected on July 18, 2014 for balls and strikes shortly before he was traded to the Yankees.

Dan Bellino (No. 2 – HP Game 2)

Get your torches and pitchforks ready. Woooof. We have the first sign of a pitchers umpire in the 2018 American League Division Series. And we mean a pitchers’ umpire. Dan Bellino has a 3.70 ERA (79th of 89), with a 1.14 WHIP (one of the lower ones). Those already are pitchers numbers. Just to rub it completely in: batters have a 7.3/hits per 9 line. 7.3! The walks per 9 are average at 2.9, and the strikeouts are average at 8.4, which given the propensity for the low hit rate and the higher strikeout rate, yikes. To make everything crazier, batters have a .218/.285/.389 batting line with Bellino behind the plate. No one is getting on base, but slugging it out.

The Chicago, Illinois native made his MLB debut on the 25th of June 2008 at Wrigley Field in an interleague game between the Chicago Cubs and the Baltimore Orioles. Note, Matt Albers started that game for the Orioles. In eleven seasons, Bellino has racked up 37 ejections. Most are for balls and strikes. However, he does have a couple of Yankees on his roster, including CC Sabathia and Joe Girardi on June 7, 2015 for arguing balls and strikes. Bellino got some note from Todd Frazier this year for being ejected by Bellino after complaining mid-inning and reviewing the tape. Be ready for a ginormous headache on Saturday.

Mike Winters (No. 33 – HP Game 3 / CC)

The crew chief is also the man who was the crew chief for the Mariano Rivera farewell on September 25, 2013 and David Wright’s final game on September 29, 2018. Mike Winters has yet another average strike zone. For years it seemed to lean toward the pitchers, but this year is closer to average. The umpires’ ERA for Winters is 3.87 (tied with Tripp Gibson and punching bag Bill Miller for 61st of 89.) He has a 1.35 WHIP (really high), with an 8.6/H9, 3.5/BB9 (high) and an 8.7/K9 rate. Batters have a .250/.323/.396 batting line. All of these are pretty average, which surprises me.

This is the 11th Division Series for the native of Carlsbad, California. He made his MLB debut on July 9, 1988 in a game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium, working under the late John McSherry’s crew. That Pirates lineup featured a young Barry Bonds in left field leading off. Winters has 106 ejections over 31 seasons in baseball. He only has one this year, Clint Hurdle all the way back on April 26. He also ejected Joe Maddon twice during the 2017 playoffs. He has only tossed two Yankees in his career: Joe Girardi on May 14, 2011 for balls and strikes and Enrique Wilson on October 6, 2001 over a called third strike.

Angel Hernandez (No. 5 – HP Game 4)

Welp. You knew this was coming. Angel Hernandez has Game 4’s home plate, if necessary. Angel Hernandez is what we call an “umpire known by name,” which usually means you’ve screwed up one too many times in front of a nationally television audience. However, Hernandez has a history of screwing up in many different markets, so he is well known. Aside of Joe West and CB Bucknor, he is likely the third-most known umpire in the majors right now. Hernandez has the first hitters zone of the group, but it’s inconsistent. Pitchers have an ERA of 4.28 with him behind the plate (29th of 89) and a 1.37 WHIP. Batters also have an 8.9/H9, 3.4/BB9 and 8.8/K9 with Hernandez. Those do lean hitters umpire though the strikeout rate is a tad higher than average for a hitters ump. Batters have a .257/.324/.427 batting line, also hitters special just above average.

This is the 10th Division Series for Angel Hernandez. The native of Havana, Cuba made his MLB debut on May 23, 1991 at the Astrodome between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros with Mike Winters on Dana DeMuth’s crew. Hernandez has 87 career ejections in the 28 seasons in the majors. Boasting a new number this year (5, over his old 55 – he wore 5 in the National League but got stuck with 55 in the merge), Hernandez has not ejected a Yankee since August 30, 2007, when he tossed Joba Chamberlain for throwing at Kevin Youkilis’ head. Let us keep it clean with him around.

Fieldin Culbreth (No. 25 – HP Game 5)

The fifth and final home plate umpire we could see in this series belongs to Fieldin Culbreth, and he has another hitters’ zone. He has a guarantee definition of hitters’ zone. It is small. In 26 games this season, Culbreth had a 4.37 ERA (tied for 21st of 89 with 3 others) and a 1.31 WHIP. The batters also have an 8.7/H9, 3.0/BB9 and 8.1/K9. The batters have a .253/.316/.427 batting line. All are just above average and lean toward the hitters. Don’t expect a lot of close calls to go the pitchers’ way.

The native of Spartanburg, South Carolina is in his 26th season as a major league umpire. He made his MLB debut on August 13, 1993 at the forsaken Kingdome between the Mariners and the then-California Angels. He is the only member of this crew to be a former member of the American League umpiring crews before the merge in 2000. In 26 seasons, he has only 50 ejections, so he’s probably the least hothead of the group besides the young Blaser. His last ejection of a Yankee was Randy Johnson on September 16, 2005, arguing balls and strikes. He got some notoriety in 2013 for allowing Bo Porter to break the rules of the game in a game between the Astros and Angels, letting Porter change pitchers after Scioscia went to the bench even though the pitcher did not face a batter. He got a two-game suspension for that, violating then rule 3.05b. (If the Angels hadn’t come back and won this game, there is a good chance this would’ve been a MLB upholding protest game.)

DJ Reyburn (No. 17 – HP in emergency only)

The second umpire with a new number on this crew, DJ Reyburn turned in his long time no. 70 in favour of No. 17, which was worn by John Hirschbeck for so many years. Depending on your preferences, you either do not want or do want Reyburn behind the plate. Reyburn has a 4.47 ERA (16th of 89) and a 1.35 WHIP, which both scream hitters umpire. However, Reyburn’s alternative numbers, 8.8/H9, 3.3/BB9 and 9.0/K9 mean the strike zone is um, a mess. Batters have a .255/.322/.427 batting line with Reyburn behind the plate. So good luck interpreting that into anything besides hitter or average umpire.

The native of Grand Rapids, Michigan made his MLB debut at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on June 10, 2008 in a game between the Yankees and the Athletics. That game was a vintage Chien-Ming Wang start with Jose Veras and Mariano Rivera wrapping up a Yankees win. That day he was part of Jerry Crawford’s crew. Reyburn has 27 ejections in 10 seasons, none of which are of the Yankees. The only notable ex-Yankees on this team are Casey McGehee and Don Mattingly. Otherwise, not much to see here.

Conclusions

We have an average to pitchers umpire for the first 4 games really. Bellino is going to make a major headache. Regardless, the four umpires at the bunker in Chelsea are as follows: Marvin Hudson (No. 51), Brian Knight (No. 91), David Rackley (No. 86) and Bill Welke (No. 3). They are making the calls on replay. Hopefully the Yankees can sweep in 3 games and avoid any Angel Hernandez specials, but that Saturday game will be something to see in strike zones of large size.

2018 Division Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

October 5, 2018 by Steven Tydings

The MVP roars. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Baseball’s premier rivalry meets again in the postseason, 14 years after a pair of epic Championship Series duels. This time, it will be a five-game set and the Red Sox have home-field advantage thanks to a tremendous regular season.

The Season Series

Boston was the only team to best the Yankees in the season series this year, taking 10 of 19 from the Bombers after winning the season finale. The Sox outscored the Yankees, 116-102, and dealt the decisive blow to their division hopes with a four-game sweep at Fenway Park in August. The Yankees took six of nine at Yankee Stadium but mustered just three wins in 10 tries in Boston.

Who stood out? Rick Porcello went 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA over 23 1/3 innings in four starts while Chris Sale allowed just one run over 13 innings across two victories. He held the Yankees to a .118/.220/.250 line. Mookie Betts hit a ridiculous .415/.506/.738 with 14 extra-base hits against the Pinstripers.

Meanwhile, Aaron Judge batted .346/.443/.654 with five homers and Giancarlo Stanton hit .371/.423/.700 with five homers and 12 total extra-base hits. Luis Severino guided the Yankees to three wins at the Stadium.

Injury Report

Dustin Pedroia, Marco Hernandez, Austin Maddox and Carson Smith are out for the year. Chris Sale is healthy, but his velocity was significantly down in his last start of the year. Eduardo Nunez has dealt with knee issues for the last few seasons.

Their 2018 Season

You know the story. Boston took the league by storm this year, winning a franchise-best 108 wins. They have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their 876 runs led baseball — Yankees were second with 851 — while 647 runs allowed was only bested by the Astros (534), Dodgers (610), Cubs (645) and Rays (646).

Betts is the likely AL MVP after leading baseball with a .346 average, putting up a 1.078 OPS and playing a Gold Glove-caliber right field. Sale is a Cy Young favorite with a 2.11 ERA over 158 innings while racking up 237 strikeouts. The crazy thing is that J.D. Martinez had a more impressive year in some ways, nearly winning the Triple Crown.

The Lineup We Might See

Mookie Betts, RF – .346/.438/.640, 32 HR, 30 SB, 185 wRC+ (AND 10.4 WAR!!)
Andrew Benintendi, LF – .290/.366/.465, 16 HR, 21 SB, 122 wRC+
J.D. Martinez, DH – .330/.402/.629, 43 HR, 6 SB, 170 wRC+
Xander Bogaerts, SS – .288/.360/.522, 23 HR, 8 SB, 133 wRC+
Mitch Moreland, 1B – .245/.325/.433, 15 HR, 2 SB, 100 wRC+
Ian Kinsler, 2B – .240/.301/.380, 14 HR, 16 SB, 87 wRC+
Rafael Devers, 3B – .240/.298/.433, 21 HR, 5 SB, 90 wRC+
Jackie Bradley Jr., CF – .234/.314/.403, 13 HR, 17 SB, 90 wRC+
Sandy Leon, C – .177/.232/.279, 5 HR, 1 SB, 33 wRC+

The lineup won’t look quite like this in Game 1 with J.A. Happ on the mound for New York. Steve Pearce (140 wRC+, 158 wRC+ vs. LHP) will certainly play first base and Eduardo Nunez (78 wRC+, 71 wRC+ vs. LHP) could take over at third base. Pearce could also start at DH or first vs. righties and force Moreland or Bradley Jr. to the bench.

But, hot diggity dog, the top of that lineup is good. You can’t let guys like Bradley Jr. and Leon get on or else Betts, Benintendi and Martinez will make you pay.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Game 1 (Friday at 7:32 PM ET): Chris Sale vs. J.A. Happ
The stuff: He’s got a 95+ mph fastball, a wipe-out high-80s slider and a low-80s changeup. The guy has some of the best stuff in baseball when he’s on.

The questions: Health and ability to go deep in games. Sale pitched just 12 innings over four starts in September. He struck out 18 and allowed just five runs, but he didn’t look quite like himself. Perhaps that was because the games were meaningless. His fastball averaged just 90.2 mph in his final start of the year as his velocity has trickled down his last few starts. Mike broke down Sale’s disappearing velocity earlier today.

Performance vs. NYY: Outside of one bad start last September, he’s really had the Yankees’ number since coming to Boston. His seven innings of one-hit, 11-strikeout ball at the Stadium in June was perhaps the best road performance against the Bombers this year.

Game 2 (Saturday at 8:15 PM ET): David Price vs. Masahiro Tanaka
I’ll be brief on the next three starters because Domenic and Mike broke them down over the last few weeks. Here’s Dom’s preview that touched on Price recently.

The story with Price is simple: He’s a great pitcher. He’s had a strong second half. But he can’t seem to beat the Yankees’ and their right-handed power, nor has he acquitted himself well in the postseason. Both of those storylines hang over him heading into Game 2.

Game 3 (Monday at 7:40 PM ET): Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino
Porcello’s had a fine, average-ish year, as Domenic pointed out last week. Like Price (and Sale), he’s struggled in the postseason historically. However, he’s been able to keep the Yankees off balance and one-hit them at Fenway in August after no-hitting them into the middle innings in April. He was unable to beat them at Yankee Stadium in one try.

Game 4 (Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET): Nathan Eovaldi vs. CC Sabathia

I can’t put it better than Mike, who broke down Eovaldi’s season and his strong numbers against the Yankees. Check out his piece!

Game 5 (Thursday at 7:40 PM ET): TBD vs. TBD
If we get this far, I’d bet on Sale starting instead of Price for obvious reasons, though Sale may be needed in relief in Game 4 like last season. On the Yankees’ end, they get to pick between whoever performed better among Tanaka and Happ in the first two games.

The Bullpen

The Red Sox will have seven relievers for this series, eight if you count Eovaldi in the early part of the series. Craig Kimbrel is the closer, mostly in one-inning stints, though the postseason will likely call for longer outings. Matt Barnes has been his primary setup man both before and since returning from the disabled list.

From there, it gets hairy. Recently, Alex Cora has turned to Steven Wright and Ryan Brasier in the middle innings. Wright especially has kept the Yankees off-balance, but the knuckleballer shouldn’t scare the Bombers.

Eduardo Rodriguez will act as the long man after missing out on the Game 4 start. Beyond him, the final two spots came down to Brandon Workman, Joe Kelly and Heath Hembree with Hembree missing the cut. Kelly was dreadful down the stretch and Cora will likely loathe utilizing him in a high-leverage spot.

Tipping Points

Sale’s readiness: He’s barely pitched down the stretch and he’s arguably the most important player in this series.
Relying on the bullpen: We know the Yankees can rely on their bullpen, but will they to the extent they need to or will Aaron Boone leave his starters in too long? On the other side, can Alex Cora find a bridge between his rotation and Craig Kimbrel that doesn’t cost his team a game or the series?
Left on right: It’s not as simple as the platoon advantages, but the Red Sox are going with two lefties presumably for three of the five starts in this series while the Yankees boast the best collection of right-handed hitting talent in baseball. If Sale and Price can navigate the lineup 2-3 times through with a lead, Boston should take the series.
Mookie Betts: He’s so freaking good. Ugh.

Missing velocity has turned Chris Sale into an ALDS wild card

October 5, 2018 by Mike

When the Yankees open the ALDS later tonight, they’ll face Red Sox ace Chris Sale, who is inarguably one of the top pitchers in baseball. Sale threw 158 innings with a 2.11 ERA (1.98 FIP) and 237 strikeouts this season. He was so good he might win the AL Cy Young even while falling four innings short of qualifying for the ERA title. He was that dominant on a rate basis.

And yet, when the ALDS begins tonight, Sale will be something of an unknown for the Red Sox. Are they getting the dominant Cy Young caliber starter? Or are they getting something less than that? Shoulder inflammation sent Sale to the disabled list twice in the second half, and, while some conspiracy theorists believe the Red Sox were simply giving him rest down the stretch with a big division lead, that sure doesn’t seem to be the case.

I say that because, since returning from his second stint on the disabled list, Sale’s velocity has been down noticeably. It’s not just down. It’s down and continuing to trend down. Look at his start-by-start average velocity:

Sale’s four-seamer averaged 90.2 mph in his final regular season start last week. That’s his lowest average fastball velocity in any game in his big league career. In fact, last time out the Statcast algorithm classified a bunch of fastballs as changeups, and that’s never a good sign. There is a clear downward trend in that graph.

Furthermore, as Ben Lindbergh notes, Sale’s extension has been down as well, meaning he hasn’t been releasing the ball as close to the plate as usual. Less extension and less velocity means hitters have that much more time to react. In his final regular season start, Sale allowed three runs and needed 92 pitches to get through 4.2 innings against the post-Manny Machado Orioles. Eek.

Sale made five starts and threw only 17 innings in the final nine weeks of the regular season. That’s it. He hasn’t completed five full innings in a start since August 11th and he hasn’t completed six innings since July 27th. For what’s it worth, Sale and the Red Sox blame his recent velocity (and extension) issues on bad mechanics, not injury. From David Schoenfield:

“I was able to get off the mound a couple of times and work on that,” Sale said, “work on using my legs, driving a little bit more. Getting a little more rotational with my lower half and staying stronger with my top half. And just trying to sharpen the tools.”

Sale last started last Wednesday. He’s going into tonight’s game on eight days rest and that is completely by design. The Red Sox lined him up in such a way that he would not only get extra rest before ALDS Game One, but also enough time to throw two bullpen sessions between starts to work on things, rather than the usual one.

Here, via Lindbergh’s post, is a great clip of Sale from his final regular season start. This doesn’t look like the usual Chris Sale. That explosiveness in his delivery isn’t there. This is almost a get-me-over lob.

Was Sale holding back to protect his shoulder in a meaningless regular season start following two bouts of inflammation? Or are his mechanics that out of whack? Would it really surprise anyone if the regular explosive Chris Sale showed up on the mound tonight throwing 97-99 mph? I don’t think so.

The fact of the matter is that Chris Sale, the explosive guy who is in the running for the Cy Young every year, hasn’t been on an MLB mound since July. Shoulder woes sabotaged his August and September, and the fact his velocity has been trending down rather than up as he regains arm strength is a red flag. It is entirely possible he was playing possum and holding back. Still, if I were a Red Sox fan, I would’ve liked to have seen regular Chris Sale on the mound at some point. It didn’t happen.

Sale is tall enough to be a Yankee (listed at 6-foot-6) but he is awfully slender, and he does have a history of wearing down late in the season. September has been his worst month throughout his career. Sale’s numbers since becoming a full-time starting pitcher in 2012:

April: 2.67 ERA (2.84 FIP) and .255 wOBA
May: 2.59 ERA (2.57 FIP) and .238 wOBA
June: 2.60 ERA (2.47 FIP) and .252 wOBA
July: 2.47 ERA (2.47 FIP) and .274 wOBA
August: 3.37 ERA (2.99 FIP) and .286 wOBA
September: 3.84 ERA (3.84 FIP) and .327 wOBA

Sale has a history of wearing down and losing effectiveness late in the season and it’s possible that now, at age 29 with nearly 1,500 big league innings on his arm, his durability issues are showing up as something more than simple fatigue. This year he dealt with shoulder inflammation that was bad enough to require 35 total days on the disabled list, plus his fastball is missing and his extension is reduced. Hmmm.

I don’t know which Chris Sale will show up tonight. It could be the Cy Young caliber Chris Sale or it could be the diminished September version of Chris Sale. Neither would surprise me. I do know this much: If Sale is not his normal self, that is advantage Yankees. Sale is still good enough to win at 90-92 mph rather than 97-99 mph, sure, but man, this guy without his usual fastball (and extension) is a much different animal.

Yankees and Red Sox announce 2018 ALDS rosters

October 5, 2018 by Mike

This morning was the deadline for the Yankees and Red Sox to submit their 25-man ALDS rosters to MLB, and, shortly thereafter, the two clubs announced them officially. Yesterday Aaron Boone more or less confirmed the entire roster and it is as expected. No surprises.

Here is each team’s 25-man active roster for the ALDS, which begins later tonight:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (12)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ (Game 1 starter)
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
LHP CC Sabathia
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka (Game 2 starter)
LHP Stephen Tarpley

Catchers (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (6)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

BOSTON RED SOX

Pitchers (11)
RHP Matt Barnes
RHP Ryan Brasier
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (Game 4 starter)
RHP Joe Kelly
RHP Craig Kimbrel
RHP Rick Porcello (Game 3 starter)
LHP David Price (Game 2 starter)
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
LHP Chris Sale (Game 1 starter)
RHP Brandon Workman
RHP Steven Wright

Catchers (3)
Sandy Leon
Blake Swihart (UTIL)
Christian Vazquez

Infielders (7)
Xander Bogaerts
Rafael Devers
Brock Holt (IF/OF)
Ian Kinsler
Mitch Moreland
Eduardo Nunez
Steve Pearce (1B/OF)

Outfielders (4)
Andrew Benintendi
Mookie Betts
Jackie Bradley Jr.
J.D. Martinez

The Yankees dropped Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade from their Wild Card Game roster and added Sabathia and Tarpley. They’re carrying four starters, eight relievers, and a four-man bench. Normally, eight relievers in a postseason series is overkill, especially since they’re not going to play more than two days in a row. Yanks vs. Sox games tend to get wild though. The extra reliever could come in handy.

The five-man bench: Gardner, Hechavarria, Romine, and Walker. It’s worth noting Gardner (left field), Hechavarria (third base), and Walker (first base) all came in for defense in the late innings of the Wild Card Game. I wonder if that will continue to be the case going forward. I guess it depends on the score. The Yankees might hold Gardner back for a pinch-running situation in a close game. We’ll see.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Red Sox and they’re going to try to patch that up with Rodriguez this postseason. Also, Eovaldi was told to prepare to pitch in relief in Game One. Wright is a starter by trade as well. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was the Astros bench coach last year, when they expertly used starters like Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton in relief in the postseason. I suspect he’ll look to do the same with the Red Sox this year.

ALDS Game One begins tonight at 7:30pm ET. As expected, the Yankees and Red Sox games drew the primetime slots. All five ALDS games will begin somewhere between 7:30pm ET and 8:10pm ET. The entire series will be broadcast on TBS.