So this is the big one. The most important series of not only the 2015 season, but the most important series for the Yankees since 2012. The Blue Jays? They haven’t played a series this big since Joe Carter faced Mitch Williams. The Yankees certainly need to win this series more than Toronto. They’re at a disadvantage going forward due to injury, general roster construction, and the standings. New York is 4-8 against the Jays this year, including 1-5 at Yankees Stadium. Gross.
What Have The Blue Jays Done Lately?
Believe it or not, the Blue Jays are actually in something of a slump right now. They just dropped two of three to the Red Sox and are 3-3 in their last six games. Of course, they’re also 26-9 since August 1st, so yeah. The Jays are 79-60 overall with baseball’s best run differential at +190. (The Cardinals are second at +122.) The Yankees are 1.5 games back in the AL East, which means they have to take at least three of four this weekend to come out of the series in first place. A split ain’t good enough at this point.
Offense & Defense
In terms of runs per game (5.47), the Blue Jays have baseball’s best offense since the 2009 Yankees (5.65). They’ve scored 760 runs this season, almost a hundred more than the second place team (Yankees at 671). This is a juggernaut offense. They have a team 114 wRC+. The gap between them and the No. 2 team (Dodgers at 107) is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 8 teams (several at 100). Just imagine if they had a healthy 2B Devon Travis (136 wRC+). He’s out with a shoulder problem.
Manager John Gibbons has apparently decided scoring runs is too easy, so he’s been batting OF Ben Revere (97 wRC+) leadoff instead of SS Troy Tulowitzki (99 wRC+). Tulo now hits fifth behind the Revere, 3B Josh Donaldson (162 wRC+), OF Jose Bautista (143 wRC+), and 1B Edwin Encarnacion (141 wRC+). Pretty much any one of those guys would be the best hitter on most other teams in baseball. The Blue Jays have all three in the lineup. Scary. Scary scary scary.
The rest of the Toronto lineup features C Russell Martin (106 wRC+), 2B Ryan Goins (84 wRC+), OF Kevin Pillar (83 wRC+), and the 1B Justin Smoak (103 wRC+) and 1B/OF Chris Colabello (151 wRC+) platoon. C Dioner Navarro (67 wRC+) will get some at-bats at DH, especially now that rosters have expanded and they have a third catcher. C Josh Thole (45 wRC+ in very limited time) is R.A. Dickey’s personal catcher. IF Cliff Pennington (45 wRC+) is the backup infielder. The crop of September call-ups includes UTIL Matt Hague, IF Munenori Kawasaki, OF Ezequiel Carrera, and OF Dalton Pompey. Pompey has been used as their pinch-running specialist.
The offense is mighty impressive, but the Blue Jays don’t get enough credit for being an excellent defensive club. Martin, Donaldson, Tulowitzki, and Pillar are all exception defensive players while Goins, Revere, Bautista, and Smoak are merely above-average. Encarnacion is the lone solidly below-average regular gloveman. This team can catch the ball. They’re not just a collection of meathead sluggers.
Pitching Matchups
Thursday (7pm ET): RHP Luis Severino (vs. TOR) vs. LHP David Price (vs. NYY)
The Blue Jays acquired Price for games like this, to beat the Yankees and help them win the AL East for the first time in two decades. The 30-year-old is in the middle of the best season of his career, pitching to a 2.43 ERA (2.88 FIP) in 28 starts and 196.1 innings. That includes a 2.15 ERA (2.33 FIP) in seven starts and 50.1 innings with the Blue Jays. Price’s strikeout (24.8%), walk (5.2%), and homer (0.73 HR/9) rates are all excellent, and while his grounder rate (40.5%) is below-average, it doesn’t matter because he generates so many weak pop-ups (10.9%). He has a slight reverse split (.290 vs. .268 wOBA in favor of lefties) that is atypical of the rest of his career. Price is a premium power pitcher, living in the mid-90s with a four-seamer and two-seamer, and a notch below that with his cutter. He throws some kind of fastball almost 70% of the time and he spots everything. Price pitches in and out, up and down, you name it. A mid-80s changeup has become his top secondary pitch, though he’ll still throw a few upper-70s breaking balls. The Yankees have seen Price three times this year. Once went great (eight runs in 2.1 innings), once went terribly (seven shutout innings), and once went okay (three runs in seven innings).
Friday (7pm ET): TBA vs. RHP Marco Estrada (vs. NYY)
Estrada, 32, has been found money for the Blue Jays. No one expected him to pitch this well. He owns a 3.18 ERA (4.28 FIP) in 147.1 innings spread across 23 starts and six relief appearances — Estrada started the season as the long man before moving into the rotation — despite unimpressive peripherals: 18.6 K%, 8.0 BB%, 32.2 GB%, and 1.10 HR/9. Nothing is even average there. Estrada has a tiny platoon split (.286 vs. 276 wOBA, advantage righties) thanks to his upper-70s changeup, which he’ll throw in any count to any batter. He sets the pitch up with an upper-80s four-seamer and will also mix in a few upper-70s curveballs. The Yankees have seen Estrada three times this year. They crushed him once (five runs in 4.2 innings), he dominated them once (6.1 scoreless innings), and the other game was kinda in between (two runs in six innings).
Saturday (1pm ET): TBA vs. RHP Marcus Stroman (vs. NYY)
The 24-year-old Stroman was expected to miss the entire season after tearing his ACL during a fielding drill in Spring Training, but his rehab went well, so the Blue Jays are activating him for the weekend. This will be his first start of the season. Stroman had a 3.65 ERA (2.84 FIP) in 130.2 innings across 20 starts and six relief appearances last summer, which was his first taste of the show. His strikeout rate (20.8%) was about average but he didn’t walk anyone (5.2%), kept the ball on the ground (53.8%), and gave up an unsustainably small number of homers (0.48 HR/9). He also had a tiny platoon split: .287 wOBA for lefties and .278 wOBA for righties. Stroman will throw six different pitches, but his mid-80s slider and changeup took a backseat to his low-to-mid-90s two and four-seamer, low-90s cutter, and low-80s curveball. This is his first start back following a long layoff, so who knows what to expect. With any luck, Stroman will be rusty. Rusty and overthrowing because he’s amped up in his first start back.
Sunday (1pm ET): TBA vs. RHP R.A. Dickey (vs. NYY)
The Blue Jays acquired Dickey to be their ace a few years ago and at this point it’s not even a guarantee he will be in their postseason rotation. The 40-year-old has a 4.01 ERA (4.58 FIP) in 29 starts and 188.2 innings this season, though he has been better the last few months, pitching to a 3.10 ERA (4.00 FIP) in 19 starts and 124.2 innings since June 1st. Dickey doesn’t strike hitters out (14.8%) and he doesn’t get ground balls (43.1%), which isn’t uncommon for knuckleballers. They tend to get weak fly balls. His walk rate is average (7.4%) and he’ll give up dingers (1.10 HR/9). Sometimes the knuckleball doesn’t knuckle and becomes a batting practice fastball. Again, he’s another guy with a small platoon split (.320 vs. .310 wOBA in favor of righties). Dickey throws his knucklepiece 85% of the time or so, and these days it resides in the mid-to-upper-70s. A show-me low-80s fastball is his other pitch. The Yankees have seen Dickey three times this season and managed to score three runs in 21.1 innings total. I’m looking forward to the possibility of “well the offense has struggled since facing the knuckleballer” excuses after this weekend.
The Yankees, meanwhile, have not yet announced their rotation for the weekend. Severino is starting tonight. That’s all we know. Adam Warren’s lengthy relief out last night suggests they will keep everyone on turn, which would mean Ivan Nova on Friday, Michael Pineda on Saturday, and Masahiro Tanaka on Sunday. I know they want to give Tanaka extra rest whenever possible, but holy moly, it would be absolute madness to not start him on regular rest Sunday. Games like that are the reason they signed the guy.
Bullpen Status
The bullpen was once a weakness for Gibbons. That is no longer the case. They made some pickups at the trade deadline and called up some players to improve the relief crew. Rookie RHP Roberto Osuna (2.08 ERA/2.62 FIP) is the closer and RHP Aaron Sanchez (2.98/4.80) is now the setup man. Sanchez started the season in the rotation before moving back into a relief role. LHP Brett Cecil (3.00/3.03) is the primary southpaw.
Deadline additions RHP Mark Lowe (1.74/2.12) and RHP LaTroy Hawkins (2.86/3.09) have improved the middle innings situation. RHP Bo Schultz (3.27/4.84) and RHP Liam Hendriks (2.64/2.11) have also done solid work. RHP Steve Delabar, LHP Jeff Francis, LHP Aaron Loup, and RHP Ryan Tepera are the extra September arms. Loup, Delabar, Francis, Hendriks, Francis, and Schultz all pitched yesterday. The late-inning guys are rested.
Check out our Bullpen Workload page for the status of Joe Girardi’s key relievers. Andrew Stoeten’s site is the place to go for the latest on the Blue Jays, though you are forewarned, the language is not family friendly.
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